Search found 193 matches

by NibbanaBanana
Sat Jul 01, 2017 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: would you take a new mortgage to invest in stock market?
Replies: 30
Views: 3103

Re: would you take a new mortgage to invest in stock market?

Vanguard is calling for 5-6% returns for stocks and 2-3% returns for bonds over the next decade IIRC. What mortgage rate can you get? 3.5-4% at best? The question you have to ask yourself is: Am I feeling lucky? Well, are you ......?
by NibbanaBanana
Sat Jul 01, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!
Replies: 55
Views: 7122

Re: The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!

Pretty much every top innovative tech company and Bio Pharma I.E. Apple, Google, Microsoft, Intel, NVidia (deep learning chips), Amgen, Biomarin, Genentech etc. etc. - are in the US and well, tech is the future whether you like it or not Whole bunch of recency bias and home country bias and sector ...
by NibbanaBanana
Wed Jun 28, 2017 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 11226

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

Thank you for pointing out the use of Prospective P/E. I personally don't find it so outrageous, and use the reverse (the prospective earnings yield) as a somewhat optimistic way to estimate future growth. I don't have a pointer readily available, but Forward PEs have been demonstrated as quite lud...
by NibbanaBanana
Tue Jun 27, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illinois: A slow swimming black swan?
Replies: 32
Views: 5091

Re: Illinois: A slow swimming black swan?

By definition, it is not a black swan. It is more like a flock of highly aggressive geese honking and biting at anyone within range. Well, everybody knew there was a real estate bubble but nobody seemed to know that it was going to bring down the global banking system and economy. This can't be good.
by NibbanaBanana
Sun Jun 25, 2017 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Favorite Vanguard Fund
Replies: 56
Views: 7358

Re: Your Favorite Vanguard Fund

I happen to have yearly performance data for a lot of the funds above, from previous discussions here and on other forums. This is through 2016. jimb Thanks jimb. That was a great post. I'm surprised to see that lump sum and DCA didn't really make much of a difference. Favorites for me: Probably a ...
by NibbanaBanana
Sun Jun 25, 2017 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Pours In = Diminishing Returns?
Replies: 9
Views: 2406

Re: Money Pours In = Diminishing Returns?

Take a look at a chart of the Wellington fund vs the Balanced Index fund from 1998 on. http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VWELX®ion=usa&culture=en-US Looks to me like the index fund got caught up in the TMT bubble of 2000 to some extent and suffered for it. Maybe the folks at Wellin...
by NibbanaBanana
Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not reinvesting dividends
Replies: 22
Views: 3804

Re: Not reinvesting dividends

Yep. I stopped reinvesting dividends from my individual stocks and broad market funds about a year ago. Reinvesting in mostly bond and balanced Vanguard funds. But I'm 90% stocks and wanted to ratchet down on risk a little. But yes, I think the broad markets and particularly growth are selling for h...
by NibbanaBanana
Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 8316

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

Actually. It can't, AFAIK. It can in that stopping smoking (and avoiding excessive consumption of alcohol) really can. Dietary change? Not much evidence of that, I don't think. In the sense that you can genuinely make it worse by a very bad diet, but there's little evidence that a good diet moves y...
by NibbanaBanana
Sun Jun 18, 2017 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Stocks - Legacy of the Great Recession?
Replies: 21
Views: 2567

Re: Global Stocks - Legacy of the Great Recession?

Much has been written about the legacy of the Great Recession and how deep a hole the recession created in the global economy. Recessions associated with financial crises are thought to be deeper and take much longer to recover than normal recessions. Yet, defying global trends, the earnings of U.S...
by NibbanaBanana
Sun Jun 18, 2017 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazon Buys Whole Foods
Replies: 103
Views: 12570

Re: Amazon Buys Whole Foods

Does this mean we will order groceries on line and they will show up at the door? That will be true for some, but I, for one, like to select my groceries. I choose the largest bunches of dandelion and dill, greenest of green apples, and cauliflower heads without blemishes. I note what is on sale, a...
by NibbanaBanana
Sun Jun 18, 2017 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fermenting Vegetables
Replies: 45
Views: 4055

Re: Fermenting Vegetables

When it comes to nutrition, if there isn't a link to a peer review article that you can read for yourself, then it's just somebody's opinion. Or they're trying to market something. Most likely the latter. For nutritional information I always use nutritionfacts.org. Good luck.
by NibbanaBanana
Fri Jun 16, 2017 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 8316

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

The problem is that there are no perfect solutions. A big problem is that we tend to have more medical problems as we get older. As one wiseacre commented, being over the age of 50 is a pre-existing condition. So society has to figure out a way to take care of the elderly, whose medical expenses ar...
by NibbanaBanana
Thu Jun 15, 2017 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk
Replies: 61
Views: 6127

Re: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk

My father is 96, my mother 93, and there are others in my family similarly long-lived. I don't know whether having a potential horizon that is >30 years is what you are terming "worst case," but in my situation it's at least a realistic case. So plans that involve exhausting assets at 30 years are ...
by NibbanaBanana
Thu Jun 15, 2017 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk
Replies: 61
Views: 6127

Re: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk

"That is why the prudent strategy for investors who have reached the point where their marginal utility of incremental potential wealth is low is to dominate their portfolios with high-quality fixed-income assets. There are some risks that are just not worth taking." That is very true. But there is...
by NibbanaBanana
Thu Jun 15, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk
Replies: 61
Views: 6127

Re: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk

"That is why the prudent strategy for investors who have reached the point where their marginal utility of incremental potential wealth is low is to dominate their portfolios with high-quality fixed-income assets. There are some risks that are just not worth taking." That is very true. But there is ...
by NibbanaBanana
Wed Jun 14, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cooktop died, not repairable, need recommendations
Replies: 36
Views: 2455

Re: Cooktop died, not repairable, need recommendations

I bought a Maytag. Terrible. Was missing some of the installation hardware and had to jump through hoops to get it. After a couple years one of the igniters broke. Can't recommend Maytag.
by NibbanaBanana
Wed Jun 14, 2017 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Cheap Champagne
Replies: 60
Views: 5025

Best Cheap Champagne

What's the best cheap champagne for a milestone celebration?

"How do you think I got so rich?"
by NibbanaBanana
Wed Jun 14, 2017 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds
Replies: 118
Views: 17246

Re: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds

I don't really even think about the countries, so much as the companies. It's amazing that for the tiny fee of 0.11% (Vanguard Total International, Admiral shares), I can invest in all of these companies and more... Toyota Royal Dutch Shell Samsung Michelin Nestle HSBC Unilever Bayer GlaxoSmithKlin...
by NibbanaBanana
Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset class returns?
Replies: 8
Views: 892

Re: Asset class returns?

I just go to the Vanguard mutual funds and filter for index funds only. Then just compare the recent returns for the different funds of different asset classes. I did this about five years ago and noticed that EM were lagging. Bought the EM index fund, and it went down some more. It's still below wh...
by NibbanaBanana
Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Favorite Active Funds?
Replies: 22
Views: 2926

Re: Favorite Active Funds?

I really like the STAR fund. It's their balanced fund of active funds. And it's not just a balanced mutual fund but is an entire investment portfolio all rolled into one. It's trailed some of the other Vanguard balanced funds recently, probably because it has an international component. That may not...
by NibbanaBanana
Mon Jun 12, 2017 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safemax with varying AA
Replies: 41
Views: 2816

Re: Safemax with varying AA

Interesting. I don't know anything about this but I would think that the reason you would be able to increase your withdraw rate would be that your portfolio has grown over time due to stocks. Your idea would avoid having to sell stocks in a market collapse but there won't be as many stocks to recov...
by NibbanaBanana
Mon Jun 12, 2017 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds
Replies: 118
Views: 17246

Re: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds

Over my 25 year investing career, my observation is that there is a worldwide trend toward democracy and a capitalistic system similar to ours. Markets are opening up and global trade is increasing. Not at all perfect and very slow, but the trend is there. So it seems like there should be more inve...
by NibbanaBanana
Sun Jun 11, 2017 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds
Replies: 118
Views: 17246

Re: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds

You still need laws which require 10k filings, you still need consequences to deliberately forging those filings, and you need consequences to auditors who would aid and abet fraud. The market did not "properly price" enron during the commission of the fraud itself (at least not until it was too la...
by NibbanaBanana
Sun Jun 11, 2017 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds
Replies: 118
Views: 17246

Re: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds

Over my 25 year investing career, my observation is that there is a worldwide trend toward democracy and a capitalistic system similar to ours. Markets are opening up and global trade is increasing. Not at all perfect and very slow, but the trend is there. So it seems like there should be more inves...
by NibbanaBanana
Sun Jun 11, 2017 8:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Option for a 6-month car?
Replies: 13
Views: 1424

Re: Best Option for a 6-month car?

The Nissan website says you can get a new 2017 Versa sedan, stripped, for $12K. That's an option. That's what I would do. I assume you don't know anybody selling a cheap used car. I don't know what your skills are. I would just look locally or on craigslist for a cheap used beater for $1K-$2K. Fix i...
by NibbanaBanana
Sat Jun 10, 2017 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend ETF
Replies: 13
Views: 1490

Re: Dividend ETF

My largest holding is Vanguard high dividend yield index fund. Last time I looked, it was yielding around 3%. Pretty nice. I've read three books by John Bogle and he consistently emphasizes that dividends are important. I also like the SNP which is yielding about 2%. Since 1960 the SNP dividend has ...
by NibbanaBanana
Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 8316

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

Referring to 20 year treasuries; "Beginning with the decade ending in 1985, the average annual return was +9% or higher. This sea change in the level of interest rates, driven in part by changes in expectations about the level of inflation, is one of the more remarkable events of modern financial th...
by NibbanaBanana
Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next
Replies: 89
Views: 12158

Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

LOL, Henry Blodget's in that video! I haven't seen him since he was hawking almost every tech stock in existence during the dot-com days. Edit: so Rogers is predicting the collapse of western civilization starting in the next year. Oooookay. I thought Blodget was banned from the securities industry...
by NibbanaBanana
Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next
Replies: 89
Views: 12158

Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

He was big on commodities for a long time. His arguments seemed convincing. I bought a few commodity ETFs. Maybe %1 of my assets. I held them for five years or so and began to realize that he was simply wrong. Sold after loosing about %25 between price and high fees on these things. Bought SNP and s...
by NibbanaBanana
Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?
Replies: 103
Views: 8366

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Looking back, I don't think the risk/reward for these stocks has ever been good enough for me to invest. Obviously, I wish I had. But Tesla has still never made money. Their CEO came out recently saying the stock is overpriced. Amazon and Netflix make a tiny amount of profit relative to market cap....
by NibbanaBanana
Tue Jun 06, 2017 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CapitalSpectator major asset classes performance review
Replies: 5
Views: 511

Re: CapitalSpectator major asset classes performance review

Even Gold is up 10% (with no inflation in sight, so I'm not sure what that says about gold being an inflation-hedge). Depends who is measuring the inflation and how they're measuring it. As some very wise individual on this board pointed out, raising the SS retirement age along with declining infra...
by NibbanaBanana
Tue Jun 06, 2017 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle: "Balancing Professional Values and Business Values"
Replies: 8
Views: 1339

Re: John Bogle: "Balancing Professional Values and Business Values"

Mr. Bogle wrote an entire book about this back in 2005 called "The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism". John Bogle has spent his whole career working tirelessly for the benefit of others. He is the only one that I know of who is publicly advocating for a return of management in the owners interest ra...
by NibbanaBanana
Tue Jun 06, 2017 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Going from cash to equities now?
Replies: 47
Views: 4959

Re: Going from cash to equities now?

From John Bogle's Seven Pillars of Wisdom

"Wisdom to know that not investing is a surefire way to fail to accumulate the wealth necessary to ensure a sound financial future."
by NibbanaBanana
Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I pay off my 3% loan. Is my return 3%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4437

Re: I pay off my 3% loan. Is my return 3%?

From the WSJ data page http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-treasury.html A Treasury maturing 8/31/2017 with 0.625% coupon has a yield of 0.993%. The interest rate is 0.626% and the yield (return) is 0.993%. These numbers are not the same. You guys are getting lost in the words. Forget the ...
by NibbanaBanana
Mon Jun 05, 2017 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 100
Views: 21256

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

Nice work nedsaid. I have 48 individual issues in my portfolio. Some I've held for over 20 years. They make up about 15-20% of our investments. As I've held a lot of them for some time in DRIP plans, it's impossible to know exactly how well they've done. That's one thing I don't like about individua...
by NibbanaBanana
Mon Jun 05, 2017 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware Fake Stock News"
Replies: 15
Views: 2509

Re: "Beware Fake Stock News"

IMO, another good reason to stick to the larger indices like the 500. Ah the S&P 500 - for those who only want the best. Or perhaps in this case, only the best attempts at covering up corporate problems before blowing up. Give me the Enrons, Lehmans, and Worldcoms (all S&P500 members at the time of...
by NibbanaBanana
Sun Jun 04, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller: Stock market will rise 50 percent
Replies: 27
Views: 4509

Re: Shiller: Stock market will rise 50 percent

unless you think the New York Post moves markets? I'd think it might move the average retail investor to add to an equity position. You think that investor is focusing, instead, on some sort of a fair value model? No, I think the average investor (especially if the read The Post) doesn't have enoug...
by NibbanaBanana
Sun Jun 04, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Everything keeps going up, this feels too easy?
Replies: 113
Views: 10127

Re: Everything keeps going up, this feels too easy?

Could this be a new normal where more and more people are buying index funds and using roboadvisors and boosting all stocks and Big drops won't happen. :D I'll keep dreaming. But boy, it would be fun to get to my goal in my 40s. Than I'd have bigger problems of what to do next, but I'd take it! It ...
by NibbanaBanana
Sat Jun 03, 2017 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware Fake Stock News"
Replies: 15
Views: 2509

Re: "Beware Fake Stock News"

I did a search but couldn't find the list. Anybody know which companies? There are over a billion websites as far as I know. Lots of opinions, lots of false information.

edit: This is a sign that things are actually starting to get a little frothy.
by NibbanaBanana
Sat Jun 03, 2017 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using limit orders to limit losses
Replies: 21
Views: 1998

Re: Using limit orders to limit losses

A stop order and a stop limit order are different. A stop limit order will protect you in the event of a flash crash or unexpected bad news when the market is closed. Read about them on vanguard.com. I have though about this myself. I have a couple positions in individual issues that are too large f...
by NibbanaBanana
Sat Jun 03, 2017 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Boglehead approved actively managed funds!
Replies: 28
Views: 3387

Re: Boglehead approved actively managed funds!

I like the STAR fund. It's really unique in the sense that it is an entire investment portfolio in a single fund. Like the LS funds but managed instead of index. VG generally has very good managed funds. They really stay on top of the managers and make sure that they earn their pay.
by NibbanaBanana
Sat Jun 03, 2017 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I Safely Retire?
Replies: 60
Views: 8268

Re: Can I Safely Retire?

I could live a comfortable life here in MI if I were single and debt free on $15,000/yr. You could pay for all basic living expenses and have a few thousand extra each year for fun purchases. Does that $15K/year that you could get by with in MI include rent? Yes, absolutely. But overall I'd recomme...
by NibbanaBanana
Thu Jun 01, 2017 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you fight the urge to micromanage?
Replies: 57
Views: 4932

Re: How do you fight the urge to micromanage?

I'm a student going for my tech degree, but I had a bunch of money in the bank that I wanted to put to work. I will be building a CD ladder soon, but today I dropped about 75 percent of it on a 3 fund portfolio with Vanguard (total US index, total International index, total bond index). Dropping th...
by NibbanaBanana
Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin analysis via public trend indicators
Replies: 35
Views: 2794

Re: Bitcoin analysis via public trend indicators

Frankly, I suspect that a big reason that Bitcoin is viewed with such great disdain on this forum is simply due to demographic makeup. Us old guys, huh ? ;-). Aged veterans of the dot com bust, sitting around Legion halls, reminiscing about the days when Steve Jobs was still alive, and there were s...
by NibbanaBanana
Wed May 31, 2017 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments
Replies: 74
Views: 7138

Re: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments

I can guarantee the course I stay will not be the the optimal one revealed by the fullness of time. But absent some fundamental "it's different this time" factor, it's not crazy to imagine it might at least bring me to the right neighborhood. I imagine that goes for all of us. <shrug> I remember re...
by NibbanaBanana
Wed May 31, 2017 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSM Dividend Yield Change
Replies: 11
Views: 1541

Re: TSM Dividend Yield Change

Hi folks, So, here's my question: I'm assuming that if the market drops by 50% at the NEXT dividend date and the value of your ETF equity is $50, and NO company adjusted/canceled its dividend, the dividend yield would be 4% and you'd STILL get $2 on the next dividend date. Correct? Unfortunately, w...
by NibbanaBanana
Wed May 31, 2017 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSM Dividend Yield Change
Replies: 11
Views: 1541

Re: TSM Dividend Yield Change

SNP dividends are pretty darn robust. from 1960-2000 there were only two dividend cuts, both less than 5%. In 2001 there was a 5% cut and in the GFC the dividends dropped about 20%. In all cases they recovered within three years in the worst case. http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/d...
by NibbanaBanana
Wed May 31, 2017 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Performance
Replies: 5
Views: 461

Re: Short Term Performance

Interesting. Time series, normal distribution. Yes, seems like alpha is an RV too. But it's only a model so only good (or bad) at making predictions. Since the dawn of time mankind has put forth all it's efforts in trying to predict the future in one way or another. A popular choice is a model. I re...
by NibbanaBanana
Wed May 31, 2017 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Performance
Replies: 5
Views: 461

Short Term Performance

I have read it many times here that short term performance is "mostly noise". Or short term stock and stock market performance is "a random walk". Just wondering: What is "short term" with respect to these statements?
by NibbanaBanana
Wed May 31, 2017 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What a convincing data to be passive !
Replies: 5
Views: 1020

Re: What a convincing data to be passive !

Over what time period was this?