Search found 3287 matches

by lazyday
Wed May 30, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's a Really Bad Day, Time to Buy
Replies: 46
Views: 4958

Re: It's a Really Bad Day, Time to Buy

... can someone provide a concise defense for the "one should buy on or immediately after a dip in stock prices" strategy (aka The RBD Strategy)? Or, since I have no doubt this topic has been argued many times on the forum, is there a link to a post that someone could provide? I personally have a h...
by lazyday
Thu May 10, 2018 2:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: purchasing cd's
Replies: 18
Views: 2193

Re: purchasing cd's

livesoft wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 11:48 am
Many people on this forum think that a brokered CD is any CD bought at one's broker. Not true.
Are there CD's you can buy from a broker that are not brokered CDs?

There might be something I don't understand, please fill me in.
by lazyday
Thu May 10, 2018 2:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GINDX Index Plus Fund -- An Index Hedge Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 1927

Re: GINDX Index Plus Fund -- An Index Hedge Fund

In about three years it's generated about 2.4% a year over the S&P 500. That's comparable to (and as difficult to accomplish as) an equity market neutral fund earning about 2.4% a year above cash. If some of the shorts are in the S&P 500, then it seems a little easier since no fee has to be paid to...
by lazyday
Wed May 09, 2018 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: purchasing cd's
Replies: 18
Views: 2193

Re: purchasing cd's

You mean brokered CDs on the secondary market. Selling on the secondary market, yes. But it still applies if you buy a new issue and later want to sell. Or course bond funds can drop in price over time, but at least you can generally sell a bond fund at about the same price someone else can buy. Ma...
by lazyday
Wed May 09, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: purchasing cd's
Replies: 18
Views: 2193

Re: purchasing cd's

Just be aware that unlike with a typical bond fund, a brokered CD selling price can be significantly lower than the buying price. It might be best to only buy brokered CDs that you intend to keep until maturity. It's also possible to buy a CD directly from a bank or credit union by transferring part...
by lazyday
Tue May 08, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Today 5/5 - Yahoo Livestream
Replies: 23
Views: 2772

Re: Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Today 5/5 - Yahoo Livestream

Added more time markers viewtopic.php?f=10&t=248764&p=3914979#p3914979

Anyone using that? I might not bother next year. Also I'm not willing to get through it quickly, so only useful to someone who is slower watching than I.
by lazyday
Mon May 07, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which brokerage has the lowest ER on SP500 index fund?
Replies: 29
Views: 1691

Re: Which brokerage has the lowest ER on SP500 index fund?

people trying to sell active funds ... Why would you care about the expense ratio if the fund can make you more [money] ... Bogleheads don't usually accept this argument about actively managed funds, so it doesn't seem consistent to turn it around and say sure, Vanguard funds have higher expense ra...
by lazyday
Mon May 07, 2018 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: XOM Question
Replies: 6
Views: 767

Re: XOM Question

You can also gift shares to a charity without setting up a fund. For some, donating highly appreciated shares can have nice tax benefits. Or you can leave the shares to family or friends when you die. This also avoids capital gains tax. If there are years where you are in a low tax bracket, it might...
by lazyday
Sun May 06, 2018 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Today 5/5 - Yahoo Livestream
Replies: 23
Views: 2772

Re: Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Today 5/5 - Yahoo Livestream

You can still watch at the same link. ~10 interview, including: 14:30 crypto 16 china Pre-Q&A. A bit slow in my opinion. 38:20 opening the candy, introductions 40:10 begin 47 buying in 1942, long term returns Q&A 58 work split 102 precision cast parts 106:50 trade war, china 113 reputation/prestige ...
by lazyday
Sun May 06, 2018 4:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.
Replies: 25
Views: 5230

Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

I think the LEXCX fund is an interesting case in this https://individuals.voya.com/product/mutual-fund/profile/voya-corporate-leaders-trust-fund-series-b Created in 1935 with an equal number of common stock shares of the 30 leading U.S. companies at the time; currently invested in a total of 22 lea...
by lazyday
Sun May 06, 2018 4:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do brokerages make $s on cheap index funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 5751

Re: How do brokerages make $s on cheap index funds?

Liz Ann Sonders from Schwab https://soundcloud.com/bloombergview/charles-schwab-liz-ann-sonders/sets She described low cost investors (like many of us index investors) as not low cost, but rather long term buy and hold investors. .... did not need a lot of hand holding or marketing ... and could pr...
by lazyday
Sun May 06, 2018 4:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do brokerages make $s on cheap index funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 5751

Re: How do brokerages make $s on cheap index funds?

Schwab can and does engage in securities lending with the underlying securities in the etf to, for example, short sellers. This brings in non-trivial sums. https://www.schwabfunds.com/public/file/P-7549969 pdf ...100% of securities lending revenues, net of total costs and expenses, are returned to ...
by lazyday
Sun May 06, 2018 3:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Factors In Fixed Income
Replies: 30
Views: 3158

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factors In Fixed Income

If anyone can recommend other sights where I might find good short essays, please let me know. Probably nothing new to you below, but just in case: I like reading shareholder letters / memos from some money managers or capital allocators, such as Buffett, Howard Marks, and anyone at GMO. Edward Cha...
by lazyday
Sun May 06, 2018 3:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Buybacks as a Global Trend?
Replies: 42
Views: 3829

Re: Stock Buybacks as a Global Trend?

Returns from reinvesting tend to be lower on average. See e.g. https://alphaarchitect.com/2018/03/20/buybacks-viewed-through-an-alternative-lens-investment/ Thanks. Come to think of it, I believe Research Affiliates mentions research on poor results from retained earnings, and when predicting equit...
by lazyday
Sun May 06, 2018 3:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.
Replies: 25
Views: 5230

Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

If you dollar weight the shares, you would get a different answer.

Most microcap stocks don't do well. Most megacap stocks do.
by lazyday
Fri May 04, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Buybacks as a Global Trend?
Replies: 42
Views: 3829

Re: Stock Buybacks as a Global Trend?

From that Wisdom Tree paper: We believe the summation of current dividend yield and net buyback yields can be viewed as an important indicator for long-term return potential. The reason: An investor does not need to assume there is any real growth on top of those two sources of returns. This ignores...
by lazyday
Fri May 04, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Buybacks as a Global Trend?
Replies: 42
Views: 3829

Re: Stock Buybacks as a Global Trend?

.... Wisdom Tree's other U.S. historical buyback yield data upthread — which definitely use net buyback yield. It also agrees with Ibbotson's historical U.S. buyback yield data (chart below) Thanks. I'm more interested in ex-US net buybacks, but will probably look at those sources. By the way, the ...
by lazyday
Fri May 04, 2018 2:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Buybacks as a Global Trend?
Replies: 42
Views: 3829

Re: Stock Buybacks as a Global Trend?

patrick013 wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 8:39 pm
I'm just saying a buyback can be voluntary or involuntary, opt-in or
opt-out kind of thing.
You might be thinking of reorganizations.
by lazyday
Fri May 04, 2018 2:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Buybacks as a Global Trend?
Replies: 42
Views: 3829

Re: Stock Buybacks as a Global Trend?

• Net Buyback Yield = (Trailing 12 month stock repurchases - new stock issuance) / Market capitalization Above is for a chart of US data. This is from an earlier post in this thread, with global data: From Mr. Damodaran's data, one can also compute the total shareholder payout yields (dividends + n...
by lazyday
Wed May 02, 2018 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 203
Views: 28243

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

some ADRs come with annual fees as high as 10-20% of dividends I tried to stick with sponsored ADRs, which might be why I never saw fees that high. I don't know how you replicated multiple factors, but I don't have the resources and time to aggregate the needed data, especially for doing it over an...
by lazyday
Wed May 02, 2018 5:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special
Replies: 49
Views: 7888

Re: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special

, the factor weightings for the VG REIT fund vary quite a bit across time. Not in a wild way that suggests no correlation, but in a way where you can't really make a good forecast of exactly what weighting of other assets = REITs. .... if "special" means than you can't know ahead of time what combi...
by lazyday
Wed May 02, 2018 5:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffet Empire in One Giant Chart
Replies: 11
Views: 3179

Re: Warren Buffet Empire in One Giant Chart

Is it troubling that a "capital allocator" has so much more power than scientists and engineers Couldn't we also consider him a manager? Part of Berkshire's advantage might be in WEB's judge of character and delegatory management style. Anyway, Sergey Brin, Larry Page, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, and ot...
by lazyday
Tue May 01, 2018 5:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relatively stable 1 year investment that doesn't involve interest?
Replies: 37
Views: 2731

Re: Relatively stable 1 year investment that doesn't involve interest?

Stargazer79 wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:25 pm
I also have a PenFed Account already (For Visa Signature Card) so this it probably the way I am going to go.
If the current rates aren't good, then also check out Alliant. They often have competitive rates, and I've heard good things about customer service.
by lazyday
Tue May 01, 2018 4:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab Vs Fidelity Vs Vanguard
Replies: 88
Views: 19106

Re: Schwab Vs Fidelity Vs Vanguard

yes, they all have low cost stock index funds with very similar expense ratios, but in other areas such as bond funds, money market funds and CD offerings, Vanguard is usually the best overall. For a significant amount of money in such vehicles, it could amount to a few hundred dollars a year in lo...
by lazyday
Tue May 01, 2018 3:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 203
Views: 28243

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

garlandwhizzer wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:32 pm
EMGF is interesting: a multi-factor portfolio (Val, Mom, Small, Qual, and Low Vol)
Just a clarification: high quality might be related to lower volatility, but as I recall the fund doesn't directly target low price volatility.
by lazyday
Tue May 01, 2018 3:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 203
Views: 28243

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

It appears that EMGF at 0.45% ER and more factors is the better deal. However, I'm not 100% sure if more factors, especially momentum, is a good thing, as long as we don't know the implementation cost of the strategies targeted by the ETFs, and their implementation details. More factors may not alw...
by lazyday
Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 203
Views: 28243

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

jhfenton, thanks for your opinions above on the EM and Intl Small funds :) JRB22, How does TLTE compare in your mind? I just took a very quick look. Looking at https://www.flexshares.com/funds/TLTE I see in "Apply Factor Tilt Process" that "Weight is reallocated from large cap and growth style boxes...
by lazyday
Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 203
Views: 28243

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

I set the "Benchmark" in those tables to be Vanguard's VEMAX. On average, EMGF's holdings are a bit cheaper by every forward-looking measure and have better growth metrics. It does look impressive. (Briefly, since I may have said this to you before: I’m avoiding EMGF because the smallcap goal proba...
by lazyday
Sun Apr 29, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 203
Views: 28243

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

iShares multifactor funds seem to be constructed more intelligently, and they offer them for more asset classes. Vanguard's multifactor fund seems to have the fewest compromises of all, but it's only US at this point. I suppose the ishares smallcap multifactor funds might be competitive for someone...
by lazyday
Sun Apr 29, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Source For Older Stock Data
Replies: 9
Views: 1154

Re: New Source For Older Stock Data

Could individual country series better help backtesters to do out of sample tests?
by lazyday
Sun Apr 29, 2018 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with this critique of indexing?
Replies: 124
Views: 10074

Re: What's wrong with this critique of indexing?

It's the combination of smallness, low profitability, and high investment that makes for a higher risk profile according to what I can make of the five-factor model. Beware, this is a vast oversimplification. I believe that high profitability and low investment have meant higher returns in backtest...
by lazyday
Sun Apr 29, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 203
Views: 28243

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

ETFs definitely use creation and redemption baskets to handle index changes. Funds even contract with third-parties to create and then redeem baskets specifically to avoid trading inside the fund and creating capital gains. (Three recent articles from Elizabeth Kashner outline how funds manufacture...
by lazyday
Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with this critique of indexing?
Replies: 124
Views: 10074

Re: What's wrong with this critique of indexing?

And going back to October, 2000 (when the S&P 100 ETF, OEF, was launched), total returns during that time frame illustrate what a drag mega caps are on a portfolio In 2000, US megacaps were still in a bubble. They were much more expensive than smallcaps. It should be no surprise they have done poor...
by lazyday
Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 203
Views: 28243

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

VFMFX/VFMF is likely to have a return closer to the broader market, but it at least cuts out junky stocks, expensive stocks, and negative-momentum stocks. But maybe it would, for example, buy a somewhat expensive stock if it had very high momentum and quality. That's what I like about well designed...
by lazyday
Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 203
Views: 28243

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

However, even without front-running, an ETF may skew it's own index by lazy trading "around" the index inclusion or exclusion dates, thus partially front-running their own index, and affecting the price of a security when the index accounts for the addition or removal. I have wondered if some funds...
by lazyday
Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with this critique of indexing?
Replies: 124
Views: 10074

Re: What's wrong with this critique of indexing?

Found this doing a search - don't know whether you were referring to it? https://www.researchaffiliates.com/documents/JOIM_Third_Quarter_2006_Cap-Weighted_Portfolios_are_Sub-Optimal_Portfolios.pdf Please. Think about it. And please try to find me the exact place where Research Affiliates actually s...
by lazyday
Sun Apr 29, 2018 5:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 203
Views: 28243

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

Given that most of the alternative indexes have relatively frequent rebalancing periods plus some kind of "buffering" mechanism to avoid turnover for minor changes, I would expect the additional benefit to be minimal. Research Affiliates estimates US Smallcap index trading costs of .54% a year. (Th...
by lazyday
Sun Apr 29, 2018 4:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with this critique of indexing?
Replies: 124
Views: 10074

Re: What's wrong with this critique of indexing?

Meb Faber said that just about anything is better than cap weighting in one of his podcasts. If you add some sensible qualifiers like you keep all costs low, including taxes and trading costs, and you remain broadly diversified, that might be correct. .... The market itself is cap-weighted. If we a...
by lazyday
Sat Apr 28, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Liquidity Risk Not Worth It
Replies: 35
Views: 5718

Re: Larry Swedroe: Liquidity Risk Not Worth It

The outcome for corporate bonds in 2008/9 was satisfactory. We were lucky. However, that doesn't justify a correct decision. In the Great Depression, stocks lost over 80% of their value and Corporate Bond defaults exploded. Treasuries behaved as expected. And today there's much more BBB not-quite-j...
by lazyday
Sat Apr 28, 2018 5:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curves-Treasury, CD, AA/AAA muni
Replies: 95
Views: 11219

Re: Yield Curves-Treasury, CD, AA/AAA muni

I even saw post a few months ago referencing an academic perspective that indicated that the term premium was negative--can't remember the details, but I think it might have been lack_ey that posted it. Here it is: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=230547 As of the end of March, it m...
by lazyday
Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unprecedented Event
Replies: 67
Views: 10085

Re: Unprecedented Event

In worst case scenario, of economic disasters, or totalitarian/authoritarian gov't taking over, or war; if you are lucky enough to not being killed in the process, what you usually get to keep is the house you live in. Even, in communist regimes, they take away all your investments, businesses, and...
by lazyday
Thu Apr 26, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Freedom
Replies: 22
Views: 3145

Re: Financial Freedom

Of course it helps to earn a lot, not spend much, and wait many years. Not spending is doubly important because it increases savings directed to investments, and you can retire on a smaller portfolio if you're frugal. Some people just make an obscene amount of money, then if they aren't too crazy in...
by lazyday
Thu Apr 26, 2018 4:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab Vs Fidelity Vs Vanguard
Replies: 88
Views: 19106

Re: Schwab Vs Fidelity Vs Vanguard

Perhaps Vanguard's ownership structure provides less incentive to employees to keep customers happy? Fidelity and Schwab make a lot of money from customers who choose high cost products. This high profit provides both a strong incentive to keep customers happy, and the funds to do so. Of course Fid...
by lazyday
Thu Apr 26, 2018 2:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Treasury Bills: Treasury Direct or Vanguard / Fidelity
Replies: 81
Views: 16929

Re: Buying Treasury Bills: Treasury Direct or Vanguard / Fidelity

If costs are the reason for choosing bills, note that some ETFs these days have low expense ratios. May be worth the convenience for some. ICSH has ER .08, duration .33 years, and takes on credit risk. SEC yield 2.24%. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/258806/ishares-liquidity-income-etf VGSH has ...
by lazyday
Tue Apr 24, 2018 4:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 78
Views: 9400

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

Measuring tracking error in international funds is a bit difficult based on how indexes calculate taxation and how funds operate paying taxes where appropriate in different countries. They use "net return" indexes as benchmarks but that's not necessarily 100% accurate to what a fund will see or con...
by lazyday
Tue Apr 24, 2018 4:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 78
Views: 9400

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

On WisdomTree multifactor funds Hedging less than 100% doesn't add any more costs than hedging 100% (it's less), I figure that hedging adds costs, and dynamic hedging would make estimating total costs especially difficult. I'm surprised at a skeptical stance I feel that for a fund where I can’t esti...
by lazyday
Mon Apr 23, 2018 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 78
Views: 9400

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

Interestingly it looks like WisdomTree is looking to launch international factor ETFs also without indexes, nominally actively managed. http://www.etf.com/sections/daily-etf-watch/wisdomtree-plans-factor-approach .... dynamic currency hedging Some international and especially EM funds have fallen b...
by lazyday
Sun Apr 22, 2018 5:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Savings Account Options for Non-Profit Organization
Replies: 4
Views: 921

Re: Savings Account Options for Non-Profit Organization

Do Vanguard, Fidelity, or Schwab allow business accounts? If so, maybe you could open a bank account and link it to the brokerage account. You could then buy and sell Treasury bills in the brokerage, without paying commissions. Vanguard pays good rates on cash if you forget to reinvest when a bill m...
by lazyday
Sun Apr 22, 2018 4:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?
Replies: 23
Views: 2249

Re: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?

.... there's other research hinting that stocks are maybe incorrectly priced as nominal assets using nominal discount rates, Perhaps this is less true now than in the past. Decades ago, many individual investors owned stocks for their dividends, which they might have compared to nominal interest ra...
by lazyday
Sun Apr 22, 2018 4:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Limits of Modern Portfolio Theory - Do Investors Understand What They Own?
Replies: 16
Views: 2392

Re: The Limits of Modern Portfolio Theory - Do Investors Understand What They Own?

To read most analyses of the ERP, you would think it is a mysterious force of nature, like gravity. Blackrock seems to think so. (PDF) The observed annual ERP was 4.3% from 1900 to 2016, .... We assume an ERP of 4.0% in the future, which is slightly lower than what the 1900-2016 average would sugge...