Search found 3025 matches

by lazyday
Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case study Broker trade executions
Replies: 193
Views: 20842

Re: Case study Broker trade executions

I guess then my concern would be that my order isn't given to a market maker. If your order is requires someone to pay a fee to access liquidity (which is true for the opening/closing crosses), your broker is going to send it to a market maker since they don't want to pay the fee themselves. I don'...
by lazyday
Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Small-cap Value Funds ??
Replies: 53
Views: 4544

Re: International Small-cap Value Funds ??

The key is longer-term data. Over multiple years any first-day tracking issues or any first-year growing pains get averaged out. One thing that causes end-date problems for Vanguard and most international mutual funds is fair value pricing . Indexes don't use fair-value pricing. (snip) From a few m...
by lazyday
Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Small-cap Value Funds ??
Replies: 53
Views: 4544

Re: International Small-cap Value Funds ??

(The one-year numbers can jump around a bit due to end-date inconsistencies. Is there a way to deal with this? I look at NAV return vs index return, and focus on the longer term data. I guess you also look at other sources like etf.com to get slightly different date ranges. Maybe when I expect to m...
by lazyday
Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Small-cap Value Funds ??
Replies: 53
Views: 4544

Re: International Small-cap Value Funds ??

....negate net securities lending revenue from operating expenses Of course this will leave out the hidden trading costs within the fund, as it trades when the index changes. For example, in their first years, RAFI funds like SFENX, SFILX, and similar powershares ETFs fell far behind their indexes,...
by lazyday
Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case study Broker trade executions
Replies: 193
Views: 20842

Re: Case study Broker trade executions

All market makers are going to execute your orders at the opening price of the listing exchange for the security. And there's only one listing exchange for a security? I guess then my concern would be that my order isn't given to a market maker. If placing the buy and sell with free trades, I could...
by lazyday
Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Small-cap Value Funds ??
Replies: 53
Views: 4544

Re: International Small-cap Value Funds ??

On NAV return vs the index a fund follows: The real winner in these sweepstakes is EEMS, ishares small cap emerging fund. ER: .69% Holding cost per Morningstar - -0.07% http://www.morningstar.com/InvGlossary/estimated-holding-cost.aspx Estimated Holding Cost measures the realized performance of an E...
by lazyday
Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Small-cap Value Funds ??
Replies: 53
Views: 4544

Re: International Small-cap Value Funds ??

jhfenton wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2018 8:38 am
VSS has actually outperformed its index by 30 bp per year over the last 3 years. (VSS did not do as well tracking in its first few years.)
Impressive.

VWO is only behind by .1%, less than the ER. 10 year return is more impressive, .09% in spite of higher ER in the past.
by lazyday
Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case study Broker trade executions
Replies: 193
Views: 20842

Re: Case study Broker trade executions

Thanks, salty. Doing a bit more googling, it seems NASDAQ started its opening cross in 2004. http://ir.nasdaq.com/releasedetail.cfm?releaseid=177255 Investopedia: DEFINITION of 'Opening Cross' A method used by the Nasdaq to determine the opening price for an individual stock. This method accumulates...
by lazyday
Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Small-cap Value Funds ??
Replies: 53
Views: 4544

Re: International Small-cap Value Funds ??

I have my eye on ISCF (iShares EDGE MSCI Multifactor International Small Cap ETF), but at the moment it only has $29.9MM in assets. It is a bit over two years old, but it essentially attracted no assets at all until iShares cut the fee to 40 bp a year ago from 60 bp. .... I bought EMGF, ISCF's emer...
by lazyday
Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case study Broker trade executions
Replies: 193
Views: 20842

Re: Case study Broker trade executions

From another thread: I need to sell a few dozen shares of an ETF in one account and buy the same number of shares in another account, and I need to place the orders while the market is closed. Just place market orders for regular hours while the market is closed. Both orders will execute at the next...
by lazyday
Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital
Replies: 33
Views: 3926

Re: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital

Updated top post for year end 2017. Old data is in the second post. Barclays China CAPE rose from 16.7 in September to 24.56 in December. If I ignored this change and used the September CAPE just for China, my estimate for Barclays EM would be 18.55 instead of 21.15. The jump was mostly from Nov to ...
by lazyday
Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to sell ETF in one account, buy it in another
Replies: 10
Views: 825

Re: Best way to sell ETF in one account, buy it in another

Just place market orders for regular hours while the market is closed. Both orders will execute at the next opening cross for the exact same price I might be concerned that one or both brokers will not route the trade to NASDAQ. Or is there some guarantee that they will? Interactive Brokers seems t...
by lazyday
Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Merrill Edge - Platinum Honors
Replies: 17
Views: 1598

Re: Merrill Edge - Platinum Honors

In exchange for free trades, I don’t try to collect every possible dollar of interest. If my cash balance is well under $1000, I’m likely to leave it alone. Here’s some low ER Treasury funds from this thread, from cash to short term. YTM seems low, maybe not current: http://www.etf.com/BIL market-we...
by lazyday
Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Merrill Edge - Platinum Honors
Replies: 17
Views: 1598

Re: Merrill Edge - Platinum Honors

It looks like a rational call on a credit- and term-adjusted basis would be NEAR for funds held less than about 6 months and ICSH for funds held more than about 6 months, due to the differences in spreads and expense ratios. Have you tried to estimate how much of the spread you are paying? I’ve bee...
by lazyday
Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Returns To Value Strategies WhenValuation Spreads Are Wide (Deep Value)
Replies: 8
Views: 1256

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Returns To Value Strategies WhenValuation Spreads Are Wide (Deep Value)

From the paper linked in the article, my bold : Changing the dependent variable to be the future return, we find that past fundamentals predict returns positively while past returns beyond 1 year predict returns negatively . This evidence is also consistent with over-extrapolation of past returns an...
by lazyday
Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 27
Views: 2438

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

BlueEars wrote:
Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:55 am
I haven't seen a discussion of Swensen's path and reasoning towards a duration as low as a year. Seems very radical.
The reversal is interesting. I thought he argued strongly in Pioneering Portfolio Management against changing duration in response to the market, but couldn't find it in my copy.
by lazyday
Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 27
Views: 2438

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

But if the market is not pricing Treasury bonds for excess expected return above cash/T-bills (of course still with the possibility for higher return), then what's the rationale for this term risk diversification that might actually be deworsification? I guess if we're counting on recent trends of ...
by lazyday
Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vident International ETF (VIDI)
Replies: 3
Views: 437

Re: Vident International ETF (VIDI)

I like most of the characteristics you list, but would be concerned about trading costs. For example if a country is already capped at 7.5% and has strong momentum, the fund would be selling. Many foreign stocks are expensive to trade. Also this policy will likely impact momentum loading. Between th...
by lazyday
Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 27
Views: 2438

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

Thanks for the update. From another thread, David Swensen has cut duration: as rate came down, we systematically reduced the duration of our bond portfolio. And today it’s probably nine months or a year. And so we don’t think there is any point in—hey, Marty. (Laughter.) My first boss from Salomon B...
by lazyday
Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2018
Replies: 33
Views: 3432

Re: Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2018

lack_ey wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:43 am
I think Vanguard sees EM bond yields and rates, inflation, etc. and assumes that EM equity valuations should be notably lower.
That would be an interesting analysis to see.

I see EM bond yields as low, but I suppose they are significantly higher than developed yields.
by lazyday
Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2018
Replies: 33
Views: 3432

Re: Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2018

Considering interest rates and risk, Vanguard thinks US Equity overvaluation isn't extreme, EM overvaluation is worse than US, and Dev ExUS is fairly valued: The current [US] CAPE level corresponds to the 95th percentile of its historical range of values, approaching highs seen during the dot-com er...
by lazyday
Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?
Replies: 21
Views: 1920

Re: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?

https://s33.postimg.org/bksbqp54f/Global_Earnings_Chart.jpg Source: JPMorgan , as of 10/31/17. US profit margins and earnings are high, and a high PE means that the price for each dollar of earnings is also high. P = PE * E = high * high = very high. Unless earnings continue to surprise on the upsi...
by lazyday
Mon Nov 20, 2017 5:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 11465

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

In case anyone missed it, there's some discussion here on who EE bonds are good for, if anyone: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=217081
by lazyday
Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 27
Views: 2438

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

One of the more-cited models for the yield curve term structure these days, building on decades of work since the expectations hypothesis and other earlier ideas that are widely regarded as empirically untrue now, is from Adrian, Crump, and Moench (ACM) of the New York Fed. They have a post here wi...
by lazyday
Fri Nov 17, 2017 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An hour with David Swensen at Council of Foreign Relations
Replies: 25
Views: 2759

Re: An hour with David Swensen at Council of Foreign Relations

I struggled with his argument in Pioneering Portfolio Management against timing interest rates. So found this interesting: if you looked at Yale’s bond portfolio 20 years ago, probably a market portfolio, market duration …. But as rate came down, we systematically reduced the duration of our bond po...
by lazyday
Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Too much risk for early retirement?
Replies: 21
Views: 3455

Re: Too much risk for early retirement?

The 457 account can be accessed without any penalty as soon as employment with the plan's sponsor ends. If the 403b account is with the current employer, upon separation distributions can be made without penalty at age 55. If the 403b account is with a previous employer, the age 59.5 applies. https...
by lazyday
Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the S&P 500 just *seem* expensive because of sector weights?
Replies: 9
Views: 1201

Re: Does the S&P 500 just *seem* expensive because of sector weights?

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Nov 10, 2017 8:23 pm
I would suggest you see if you can find the sector weight from a several years ago.
This is in Exhibit 1 in the paper.
by lazyday
Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA Rollover 1 per year rule
Replies: 14
Views: 1209

Re: IRA Rollover 1 per year rule

2. Direct rollover where a check from Custodian #1 is mailed to you but made out to Custodian #2 FBO WorkToLive. You forward the check to Custodian #2. This also does not have withholding and does not trigger the one-year-rule. Perhaps the IRS would consider this a Trustee-to-trustee transfer, sinc...
by lazyday
Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital
Replies: 33
Views: 3926

Re: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital

GMO's PE10: US 27.3 EAFE 20.7 As of 9/30/17 Source: GMO https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/research-and-commentary/strategies/asset-allocation/faang-schmaang-don-t-blame-the-over-valuation-of-the-s-p-solely-on-information-technology.pdf?sfvrsn=2 See Exhibit 7. I've made a separate post to discu...
by lazyday
Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the S&P 500 just *seem* expensive because of sector weights?
Replies: 9
Views: 1201

Does the S&P 500 just *seem* expensive because of sector weights?

In Unconventional Success, David Swensen argued that we should expect similar returns from US and developed equities. GMO takes this a bit further with a simple valuations argument: broad equity markets that bear similar levels of risk should deliver similar levels of returns and thus be priced in l...
by lazyday
Mon Nov 06, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My (general) contacts with Treasury Direct re loss & liability
Replies: 40
Views: 5138

Re: My (general) contacts with Treasury Direct re loss & liability

Today you can simply add a bank account, with identical registration of course, online. Thanks, wasn't aware of this change. TD required my answer to a security question, and sent me an email warning that a change had been made. I haven't tried the new linked bank yet so don't know if there's anyth...
by lazyday
Fri Nov 03, 2017 5:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of World Stock Market Bubbles, 1900-2014
Replies: 38
Views: 3772

Re: History of World Stock Market Bubbles, 1900-2014

In this paper I examine the frequency of large, sudden increases in market value ... A large sudden increase in price might signal a good time to buy, since short term momentum has historically provided a premium. The author's message: "Placing a large weight on avoiding a bubble, or misunderstandi...
by lazyday
Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 511
Views: 51447

Re: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]

For those of us holding VTI, VT, and BND at TD, would it be better to just pay the new transaction fee, or find equivalents from the new no-fee list? What I would do myself: Count the number of trades per year, multiply by $7, divide by account size. If it's less than .0002 (two basis points) then ...
by lazyday
Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller: the 1987 stock market panic can happen again
Replies: 29
Views: 2957

Re: Shiller: the 1987 stock market panic can happen again

Portfolio insurance had a major role in another sense, though: A narrative spread before Oct. 19 that it was dangerous, and fear of portfolio insurance may have been more important than the program trading itself. I sent out thousands of questionnaires to investors within four days of the 1987 cras...
by lazyday
Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?
Replies: 47
Views: 4128

Re: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?

JustinR wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:42 pm
It's behind a paywall so I can't read it, but from other replies it seems that the people who take the survey are mostly wrong?
After I closed the popup ad twice, I was able to read the article.
by lazyday
Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?
Replies: 47
Views: 4128

Re: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?

JustinR wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:47 pm
Everyone right now seems to think that a crash is imminent.
AAII (thanks Arctic) is neutral to bullish now. Members don't seem to expect an imminent crash.

http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
by lazyday
Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the current cryptocurrency market a bubble in the making?
Replies: 10
Views: 767

Re: Is the current cryptocurrency market a bubble in the making?

During the dotcom bubble it was quite obvious to many that it was a bubble. I think crypto today is the same. Look up the characteristics of a bubble according to thoughtful people like Shiller or Grantham/Chancellor. Crypto probably meets all of them right now. Don't know if it will pop tomorrow or...
by lazyday
Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles schwab - why so much cheaper?
Replies: 53
Views: 8550

Re: Charles schwab - why so much cheaper?

oldcomputerguy wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:51 am
Interesting that their structure would return economies of scale to the investors but then back that out if the AUM dropped due to a market decline.
I guess when the market falls, fixed costs don't fall with it. Vanguard ER % also rose a little when the market fell.
by lazyday
Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles schwab - why so much cheaper?
Replies: 53
Views: 8550

Re: Charles schwab - why so much cheaper?

I'm not a huge Vanguard fan either, in terms of particular special brand loyalty or envisioning great advantages from the structure. But there's something here. You may not get the lowest costs there in the long term. But I think with very high probability (higher than for the others) you're not go...
by lazyday
Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles schwab - why so much cheaper?
Replies: 53
Views: 8550

Re: Charles schwab - why so much cheaper?

Some are skeptical that all of the players are for sure in this for the long run, keeping ERs low perpetually and keeping the funds open. In a taxable account, it might be worth thinking a couple or few decades down the line. People have been saying the same thing for the last twenty years about bu...
by lazyday
Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bitcoin makes you rich
Replies: 49
Views: 5040

Re: anhybody buying bitcoin

Bitcoin is magical. The more expensive it gets, the more people like it.

Here's a family that sold their house and vehicles to buy more bitcoin: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/17/this-fa ... tcoin.html
by lazyday
Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 263
Views: 36842

Re: What is Bitcoin?

The Dutch family of five is in the process of selling pretty much everything they own — from their 2,500-square-foot house, to their shoes – and trading it in for the popular cryptocurrency. They have moved to a campsite in the Netherlands, where they're waiting for bitcoin to really take off. .......
by lazyday
Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction
Replies: 51
Views: 6945

Re: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction

At first I was thinking that Larry is sticking his neck out speaking against cutting back while equity is so expensive. But then I noticed there's not much you can quote him on here, if the market falls 85% over the next year and you angrily go back to this article.
by lazyday
Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 511
Views: 51447

Re: Fellow TDA bogleheads

considering Schwab and using their ETFs (SCHB/SCHF/SCHE/SCHZ) Over the years, people have mostly posted about good experiences with Schwab brokerage. Maybe tied with Fidelity for top satisfaction. The ETFs look pretty good to me, and I use their Fundamental Index etfs. But I haven't looked into wha...
by lazyday
Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Schwab Index Fund - SCHK, better than SCHB?
Replies: 6
Views: 928

Re: New Schwab Index Fund - SCHK, better than SCHB?

I don't really see a reason for this fund to exist, but then again it is diversified and has a low cost so I don't see much downside either. It might save money by using the Schwab index instead of a DJ index. SCHX follows the "Dow Jones U.S. Large-Cap Total Stock Market IndexSM made up of approxim...
by lazyday
Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 511
Views: 51447

Re: Fellow TDA bogleheads

jhfenton wrote:
Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:23 am
lazyday wrote:
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:52 am
There's several SPDR® Portfolio funds.
The SPDR® Portfolio site is currently "down for maintenance." :?
Up for me at the moment. Here's a list, though I didn't check if all are free at TDA: https://us.spdrs.com/en/strategies/spdr ... folio-etfs
by lazyday
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 511
Views: 51447

Re: Fellow TDA bogleheads

Wait, it looks like their replacement for VTI is SPTM. ER 0.03%, but thinly traded for now. There's several SPDR® Portfolio funds. SPDW SPDR® Portfolio World ex-US ETF has only 33 million shares outstanding. Lots of names on this list look like they are funds in need of shareholders. Maybe some goo...
by lazyday
Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 263
Views: 36842

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Initial Margin 3.33%
Maintenance Margin 1.67%
Leverage 1:30
https://www.plus500.com/Instruments/BTCUSD
by lazyday
Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 511
Views: 51447

Re: Fellow TDA bogleheads

If you have at least 50k in assets, Merrill Edge with Preferred Rewards is a good option. They give 30 free equity trades/month with 50k With under 50k, Fidelity and Schwab have some decent ETFs that trade free. Otherwise ETF trades are $5. Trades are getting so cheap that even though I qualify for...