Search found 3247 matches

by lazyday
Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unprecedented Event
Replies: 46
Views: 4833

Re: Unprecedented Event

In worst case scenario, of economic disasters, or totalitarian/authoritarian gov't taking over, or war; if you are lucky enough to not being killed in the process, what you usually get to keep is the house you live in. Even, in communist regimes, they take away all your investments, businesses, and...
by lazyday
Thu Apr 26, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Freedom
Replies: 15
Views: 1228

Re: Financial Freedom

Of course it helps to earn a lot, not spend much, and wait many years. Not spending is doubly important because it increases savings directed to investments, and you can retire on a smaller portfolio if you're frugal. Some people just make an obscene amount of money, then if they aren't too crazy in...
by lazyday
Thu Apr 26, 2018 4:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab Vs Fidelity Vs Vanguard
Replies: 36
Views: 2884

Re: Schwab Vs Fidelity Vs Vanguard

Perhaps Vanguard's ownership structure provides less incentive to employees to keep customers happy? Fidelity and Schwab make a lot of money from customers who choose high cost products. This high profit provides both a strong incentive to keep customers happy, and the funds to do so. Of course Fid...
by lazyday
Thu Apr 26, 2018 2:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Treasury Bills: Treasury Direct or Vanguard / Fidelity
Replies: 27
Views: 2858

Re: Buying Treasury Bills: Treasury Direct or Vanguard / Fidelity

If costs are the reason for choosing bills, note that some ETFs these days have low expense ratios. May be worth the convenience for some. ICSH has ER .08, duration .33 years, and takes on credit risk. SEC yield 2.24%. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/258806/ishares-liquidity-income-etf VGSH has ...
by lazyday
Tue Apr 24, 2018 4:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 50
Views: 4000

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

Measuring tracking error in international funds is a bit difficult based on how indexes calculate taxation and how funds operate paying taxes where appropriate in different countries. They use "net return" indexes as benchmarks but that's not necessarily 100% accurate to what a fund will see or con...
by lazyday
Tue Apr 24, 2018 4:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 50
Views: 4000

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

On WisdomTree multifactor funds Hedging less than 100% doesn't add any more costs than hedging 100% (it's less), I figure that hedging adds costs, and dynamic hedging would make estimating total costs especially difficult. I'm surprised at a skeptical stance I feel that for a fund where I can’t esti...
by lazyday
Mon Apr 23, 2018 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 50
Views: 4000

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

Interestingly it looks like WisdomTree is looking to launch international factor ETFs also without indexes, nominally actively managed. http://www.etf.com/sections/daily-etf-watch/wisdomtree-plans-factor-approach .... dynamic currency hedging Some international and especially EM funds have fallen b...
by lazyday
Sun Apr 22, 2018 5:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Savings Account Options for Non-Profit Organization
Replies: 4
Views: 453

Re: Savings Account Options for Non-Profit Organization

Do Vanguard, Fidelity, or Schwab allow business accounts? If so, maybe you could open a bank account and link it to the brokerage account. You could then buy and sell Treasury bills in the brokerage, without paying commissions. Vanguard pays good rates on cash if you forget to reinvest when a bill m...
by lazyday
Sun Apr 22, 2018 4:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?
Replies: 23
Views: 1609

Re: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?

.... there's other research hinting that stocks are maybe incorrectly priced as nominal assets using nominal discount rates, Perhaps this is less true now than in the past. Decades ago, many individual investors owned stocks for their dividends, which they might have compared to nominal interest ra...
by lazyday
Sun Apr 22, 2018 4:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Limits of Modern Portfolio Theory - Do Investors Understand What They Own?
Replies: 16
Views: 1893

Re: The Limits of Modern Portfolio Theory - Do Investors Understand What They Own?

To read most analyses of the ERP, you would think it is a mysterious force of nature, like gravity. Blackrock seems to think so. (PDF) The observed annual ERP was 4.3% from 1900 to 2016, .... We assume an ERP of 4.0% in the future, which is slightly lower than what the 1900-2016 average would sugge...
by lazyday
Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?
Replies: 23
Views: 1609

Re: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?

grayfox wrote:
Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:19 am
Number 1 says use it to predict nominal, not real, returns.
But I only care about real returns.

I'd rather have a mediocre quality prediction of real returns than a good quality prediction of nominal returns.
by lazyday
Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?
Replies: 23
Views: 1609

Re: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?

, I won't believe for a minute that earnings of 2008 are in any way meaningful when determining a price for, let's say, Amazon in 2018. It would be difficult to use CAPE to compare Amazon to Walmart for example. You would have to adjust for growth and other differences. Even if comparing US CAPE to...
by lazyday
Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?
Replies: 23
Views: 1609

Re: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?

Clearly, the CAPE formula it's not a stand-alone since it does not account for interest rates. And that's just one of its problems. It might make sense for stock prices to reflect real interest rates, but as I recall the historical data does not show this. Some might argue that US CAPE is high toda...
by lazyday
Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 92
Views: 10950

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

I own some EMGF (iShares Multifactor EM) in my HSA, and I like the fund. But I based on the current factor funds, I would like Vanguard's better. I really like that Vanguard isn't following an index, so the fund could potentially lose less money trading. Many EM factor and RAFI funds fall behind th...
by lazyday
Fri Apr 20, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 92
Views: 10950

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

I bet there's some Bogleheads who never owned .5% of a fund until recently.

Myself, I wish they would do multifactor developed ex-US and EM funds. I have over 20% of my portfolio in each of FNDF and FNDE (RAFI) and would gladly move that to Vanguard.
by lazyday
Fri Apr 20, 2018 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (Video) CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers are Wrong
Replies: 6
Views: 958

Re: (Video) CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers are Wrong

Lauretta, Yes on the .05%. And if the other half is reversion towards the mean, then we should expect annualized mean reversion at a pace of half of full reversion in 10 years, not full reversion as implied in the video. Am I missing something? I don't understand what you mean here. In the video jus...
by lazyday
Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (Video) CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers are Wrong
Replies: 6
Views: 958

Re: (Video) CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers are Wrong

10.00-10.40 (still global) CAPE has mean reverted at pace of full reversion in 10 years The regression line for CAPE vs 10 year future return has a slope that varies by country, and typically shows about a .1% lower return per year for a 1% increase in CAPE. Some of that lower return is caused by l...
by lazyday
Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?
Replies: 23
Views: 1609

Re: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?

It's puzzling why folks would think that there's a golden mean value at which stocks are destined to trade. I'm not aware of any economic or financial theory that would support this idea. Clearly, from the historical record, folks are willing to pay a different amount for the same dollar of earning...
by lazyday
Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?
Replies: 23
Views: 1609

Re: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?

.... over the 1982-2018 period) had average monthly CAPEs of between 17.6 and 23.8 That's higher than the longer term average in the US, around 16. My suspicion is that these averages since 1982 are distorted by elevated CAPE over the last 2 decades, especially around the last years of the 90s, and...
by lazyday
Tue Apr 17, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?
Replies: 23
Views: 1609

Re: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?

In a video, RA says that globally CAPE has mean reverted at pace of full reversion in 10 years. (10:00-10:40) https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=245135 As I recall, this simple analysis was about reversion to the local historical mean CAPE. Given the above, when making a best gues...
by lazyday
Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone hold any defensive funds in their portfolio?
Replies: 41
Views: 3477

Re: Anyone hold any defensive funds in their portfolio?

Why settle for defensive when some few individual stocks (Berkshire, Fairfax, Oaktree, etc.) are anti-fragile? Does anyone else hold an opinion on whether those shares are antifragile? In a crisis, Berkshire might get sweet deals, like the BoA preferred and warrants. And good capital allocators in ...
by lazyday
Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 Yale Endowment Report
Replies: 13
Views: 978

Re: 2017 Yale Endowment Report

lhl12 wrote:
Mon Apr 16, 2018 7:26 am
Along similar lines, this link has an interesting interview of David Swensen (manager of the Yale Endowment) by Bob Rubin (former US Treasury Secretary):

https://www.cfr.org/event/conversation-david-swensen
Here's the discussion on it: viewtopic.php?t=232479
by lazyday
Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Stock/Bond Market Total Valuations to Guide Portfolio Allocations
Replies: 9
Views: 1015

Re: Using Stock/Bond Market Total Valuations to Guide Portfolio Allocations

Just to clarify on "Valuations" in the title. In investing, this usually either means how cheap or expensive something seems, or refers to estimates of value--not based on the trading price, but on characteristics such as earnings. So we might claim that tech companies have poor valuations because p...
by lazyday
Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interview with Elroy Dimson by Meb Faber
Replies: 1
Views: 354

Re: Interview with Elroy Dimson by Meb Faber

- tangible investments such as real estate and fine wine; wine is probably better than houses. So house prices increased maybe 1% real, ignoring maintenance cost and significant upgrades over time, but also ignoring rent yield or the value of "renting" to yourself. He sounds quite skeptical of hous...
by lazyday
Sat Apr 14, 2018 5:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 153
Views: 8388

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

The inevitable conclusion (by some) to this type of discussion is that valuation matters and that international funds are the answer .... No one seems to discuss US returns being lower in the coming decades and international returns being even further lower. I don’t see why that also isn’t a possib...
by lazyday
Sat Apr 14, 2018 4:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 153
Views: 8388

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

[predictions are] Useful in what way? If they aren't reliable, then how can one improve one's plans by using them? Predicting “3.5% +/- a lot” is better than no prediction, and much better than “6.5% +/- a lot”. we shouldn't be planning on getting average returns anyway. We should always be expecti...
by lazyday
Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 153
Views: 8388

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

valuation metrics like CAPE are not reliably mean reverting . There is no 'rule' that says that valuations cannot keep going up (or down). This further reduces their ability to predict future returns. I was resisting while reading this, but you're probably right. In Japan, CAPE kept rising until it...
by lazyday
Fri Apr 13, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 153
Views: 8388

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

... using their predictions to set one's savings rate would lead to saving more at the top of a bubble ... Buy more when high, buy less when low. If I were accumulating for retirement and refused to invest outside the US, then because of today's low expected returns I wouldn't be so frugal. I'd spe...
by lazyday
Fri Apr 13, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 153
Views: 8388

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

Performing well in a backtest does not necessarily mean anything at all. I can show how rainfall in a small town in Connecticut is highly correlated with the stock market, but that doesn't give it any meaningful predictive ability. As I recall, CAPE has been backtested separately in many countries,...
by lazyday
Fri Apr 13, 2018 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 153
Views: 8388

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

, no metrics used for predicting stock returns have been particularly good past ten years; there are simply too many factors at work. And yes, I agree that valuations are a poor predictor of future returns because they aren't reliably mean reverting, nor can we simply take 1/CAPE as Larry Swedroe d...
by lazyday
Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 153
Views: 8388

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

on 1992: Every other time it was that high, we had a crash soon after. It looked like we were due for a crash. It's a good point that 1992 looked more expensive at the time than it does now, and your chart shows this nicely. But I think you overstate the point. Using the two sites I linked earlier, ...
by lazyday
Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 153
Views: 8388

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

The expected return predictions are for the next 10yrs period. Are you going to retire in 10 yrs? You could make a prediction that can be used for any time period. Add dividends + expected dividend growth. Or you can add dividends + net buyback yield after dilution + expected total growth. Today yo...
by lazyday
Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 153
Views: 8388

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

US stocks are expensive today This has been true since 1992, or 26 years. 1/1/1992 CAPE was under 20, and 1/1/1993 CAPE was under 21. Not very expensive compared to recent CAPE over 31. But the market has mostly been expensive for about 20-22 years. And I would say that much of the time during thos...
by lazyday
Wed Apr 11, 2018 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 153
Views: 8388

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

A lemonade stand makes $100 a year. If I buy the stand for $1000, then I make 10% per year on my investment. If I buy the stand for $2000, then I only make 5% per year. A bit more complicated when you also think about growth, reinvestment, etc, but it's really important how much you pay. US stocks a...
by lazyday
Wed Apr 11, 2018 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions
Replies: 25
Views: 1364

Re: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions

[snipped by lazyday] Why does [arb or trading] work for Ford vs GM, but not for UK vs US? It takes relatively few traders, with a relatively small amount of capital to short a relatively small stock no matter how overpriced it is over fundamental value, to bring the price back in line. For the S&P ...
by lazyday
Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions
Replies: 25
Views: 1364

Re: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions

, but I think Samuelson might say that would not be enough to lower prices of the other indexes This confuses me. If Ford is cheap and GM is expensive, I can sell my GM and buy Ford. I can even try to arbitrage since both shares might move together: short GM and buy Ford, though that can be risky a...
by lazyday
Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions
Replies: 25
Views: 1364

Re: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions

Samuelson explained his reasoning in the 1991 article The Long-Term Case for Equities. The difference is that when Franco Modigliani sees a mispricing of GM common and preferred, he and others can make profits doing what corrects that discrepancy And that’s why the microefficiency gets wiped out as...
by lazyday
Wed Apr 11, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions
Replies: 25
Views: 1364

Re: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions

I also think there are arguments (e.g. by Paul Samuelson) according to which EMH applies more to individual stocks than to whole markets (i.e. markets seem to be microefficient but not very macroefficient). GMO author(s) have blamed career risk for this, though I don't see why career risk is so muc...
by lazyday
Wed Apr 11, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions
Replies: 25
Views: 1364

Re: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions

My understanding is that the research showing that CAPE is inversly related to future returns not only in the US but in the the rest of the world too supports this strategy. One drawback is that for non-US stocks the data seems to go back only to the 70's (at least in the case of StarCapital). If w...
by lazyday
Wed Apr 11, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions
Replies: 25
Views: 1364

Re: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions

[snipped by lazyday] See the recent paper https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3114803 thanks for the reference, I am going to read the paper If you find anything interesting, let us know. I'm not sure how much can be said from 2 decades of data. I skimmed the abstract and conclusion...
by lazyday
Wed Apr 11, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions
Replies: 25
Views: 1364

Re: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions

I think more people than are willing to admit it have "except when" thresholds that will trigger them to shift allocations. My threshold is quite high for making a large move between risky assets like stocks and safe assets like Treasuries. My threshold is lower for moving between risky assets, lik...
by lazyday
Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions
Replies: 25
Views: 1364

Re: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions

I don't have much faith in using valuations to set an allocation of stocks vs bonds. Except in situations like 2000 in US, when TIPS had a higher long term expected return than stocks.

But I do use valuations to allocate among risky asset classes. Not sure there is any good research on this.
by lazyday
Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Advocates besides Swedroe & Swensen
Replies: 10
Views: 1179

Re: Treasury Advocates besides Swedroe & Swensen

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-case-for-minimizing-risk-in-your-bond-holdings-1445220146?mg=id-wsj The Case for Minimizing Risk in Your Bond Holdings By William J. Bernstein Oct. 18, 2015 10:02 p.m. ET Financial risk isn’t just about the possibility of sustaining significant losses. It’s also abou...
by lazyday
Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multi Factor Funds
Replies: 7
Views: 719

Re: Multi Factor Funds

jhfenton wrote:
Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:57 am
I should have said that it seems that way to me based on a few years of observation.
Thanks.

I've been happy with my Vanguard ETF trades, though to be honest I've also been happy with other ETF trades too.
by lazyday
Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multi Factor Funds
Replies: 7
Views: 719

Re: Multi Factor Funds

Vanguard always makes sure their ETFs have good market makers, even for ETFs like VIOV (Vanguard S&P 600 SCV) that are lightly traded. If you can share, what makes you think this is true? I've wondered if Vanguard ETFs have tighter spreads and lower premium/discount because of their policies or oth...
by lazyday
Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein, new podcast
Replies: 56
Views: 5886

Re: Bill Bernstein, new podcast

mentions other podcasts Here they are: Any podcasts that you really enjoy? Bill: Oh my god, there’s not enough time in the day. Probably the biggest one is Planet Money. The only time in my life when I felt like the dumbest person in the room was when I attended one of their editorial meetings. I j...
by lazyday
Fri Apr 06, 2018 5:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Treasury Direct is a waste of time
Replies: 80
Views: 18489

Re: Treasury Direct is a waste of time

If you're going for bills, notes, or bonds, it's nice that at any major brokerage, you can buy new auction treasuries without commission, or hassle. Including at VG I think. but NOT Merrill-Edge. They charge $50--treat as regular bond purchase :annoyed Vanguard, Fidelity, and Schwab let you buy Tre...
by lazyday
Fri Apr 06, 2018 5:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: premium/discount when buying an ETF
Replies: 31
Views: 2180

Re: premium/discount when buying an ETF

But I would worry more about spreads than premiums when trading ETFs. Though it’s very easy to see the spread compared to estimating a premium. For funds I’ve bought lately, I think the typical premium is larger than the spread (at ~9:45 to 11am Eastern). FNDF for example might trade with a spread ...
by lazyday
Fri Apr 06, 2018 5:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: premium/discount when buying an ETF
Replies: 31
Views: 2180

Re: premium/discount when buying an ETF

If you want to ensure your getting fair value when buying or selling funds, then use mutual funds that trade at NAV, not ETFs where lots of people have their fingers in the pie. That makes sense, especially for someone who tends to buy and sell when others do. Of course not all funds have tradition...
by lazyday
Fri Apr 06, 2018 5:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein, new podcast
Replies: 56
Views: 5886

Re: Bill Bernstein, new podcast

The real return on T-bills over 20 year periods has ranged from annual real returns below -1% per year to over 1% per year. And it might look worse if we consider sequence of returns risk. Retiring just before bills begin to lose real value means withdrawing when real price is low, spending down th...