Search found 3090 matches

by lazyday
Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 128
Views: 6890

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

There is also a more mathematical explanation of why 1/CAPE makes sense as an expected (real) returns model, but this will be for another post... Just making sure you've already seen this version: Appendix A: The Relation Between Earnings Yield and Equity Expected Returns We present here the theore...
by lazyday
Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: J. Montier: US equity market is obscenely overvalued
Replies: 12
Views: 1332

Re: J. Montier: US equity market is obscenely overvalued

How can you still buy&hold? :confused It seems quite possible that returns will be truly horrible over the next 7 or 10 years. A best guess for the next decade might even be below 0% return. But over the next several decades, we might expect what, 4% real for global equities? If you sell your stock...
by lazyday
Tue Feb 20, 2018 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Switching from TDAM to VG implications
Replies: 14
Views: 635

Re: Switching from TDAM to VG implications

wouldn't say "just as good" Care to elaborate? Because Vanguard doesn't need to make a profit, it sometimes acts more to the benefit of fund investors. A couple examples: Perhaps from the start, Vanguard directed all revenues from securities lending into the funds. Some other fund managers took hal...
by lazyday
Tue Feb 20, 2018 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected Returns: AQR’s Capital Market Assumptions 2018
Replies: 1
Views: 212

Expected Returns: AQR’s Capital Market Assumptions 2018

This year, we update our estimates using the same methodology as last year, and then provide an analysis on the predictive ability of yield-based return forecasts. Summary of AQR's 5-10 year forecasts for equities: U.S. 4.0% Dev. ex US 4.5% Emerging Mkts 4.7% See Exhibit 2 for details. Methodology ...
by lazyday
Tue Feb 20, 2018 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interactive Brokers fee structure for passive investors
Replies: 21
Views: 1369

Re: Interactive Brokers fee structure for passive investors

I believe IB shares rebates on limit orders, which might make a difference for large transactions. Maybe they also have better price improvement on market orders? I haven't looked into order routing advantages with IB. Fidelity claims to have good price improvement, and there's a couple sources on t...
by lazyday
Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's portfolio: does the fact that SC are expensive cause a problem?
Replies: 37
Views: 3215

Re: Larry Swedroe's portfolio: does the fact that SC are expensive cause a problem?

Wouldn’t DDM still yield a positive result? Expected return = dividend yield + earnings growth? Yes, but if S&P 500 yield+growth is 3% and 30 yr TIPS yield 4%, then the premium over TIPS is negative. I guess it depends on whether you are looking at an equity premium compared to a risk free or lower...
by lazyday
Mon Feb 19, 2018 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding an ETF by it's Name
Replies: 22
Views: 596

Re: Understanding an ETF by it's Name

World is international and USA. For MSCI (indexes, not sure about funds) "World" means the developed world, excluding Emerging Markets. You need "All Country World" to get the world. In general for US funds and US index companies, I think "International" sometimes includes EM and sometimes doesn't....
by lazyday
Mon Feb 19, 2018 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding an ETF by it's Name
Replies: 22
Views: 596

Re: Understanding an ETF by it's Name

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund <--- not "total" because it does not invest in companies outside of the US And the confusing symbol, VTI which makes me think "International". Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund <--- does not invest in the US even though the US is among internationa...
by lazyday
Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Switching from TDAM to VG implications
Replies: 14
Views: 635

Re: Switching from TDAM to VG implications

Qmavam wrote:
Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:18 am
I thought you could transfer stocks directly from TDA to Vanguard without selling!
Yes, though if you sell an SPDR ETF at TDA, you might not pay a commission if you follow their rules. Livesoft posted above about holding it long enough.
by lazyday
Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which book for an 18 year old who is asking about investing?
Replies: 44
Views: 2601

Re: Which book for an 18 year old who is asking about investing?

If You Can mentioned above could be a good start. Very short, and has good book suggestions in it. I also like Four Pillars of Investing by the same author, if she wants to go deep. I like the highly relevant historical perspective--not just history because history is fun. Another possibility is Dav...
by lazyday
Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Switching from TDAM to VG implications
Replies: 14
Views: 635

Re: Switching from TDAM to VG implications

In a strange twist, the commission to sell the SPDR ETF at Vanguard is $7 while the commission to buy the Vanguard ETF at TDAM is $6.95, so if you do the math, then it would be slightly less expensive to (if no short-term trading fee at TDAM) to do the exchange at TDAM, then transfer in-kind the Va...
by lazyday
Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Switching from TDAM to VG implications
Replies: 14
Views: 635

Re: Switching from TDAM to VG implications

They are just as good as the Vanguard ETF's and you won't have to pay a bunch of taxes. SPDR (SSgA), iShares (Blackrock), Schwab, and maybe a few others do have some good ETFs but in most cases I wouldn't say "just as good". If it were me, I'd probably be happy losing say .1% on a long term holding...
by lazyday
Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's portfolio: does the fact that SC are expensive cause a problem?
Replies: 37
Views: 3215

Re: Larry Swedroe's portfolio: does the fact that SC are expensive cause a problem?

If you believe that size and value are risk premia, then the expected return should always be positive relative to large cap or total market. The gap in valuations and additional expected return may be higher or lower at different times, but the expected return premia should always be positive. ......
by lazyday
Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected return of US vs International, basic question
Replies: 26
Views: 1350

Re: Expected return of US vs International, basic question

I have read on this forum and elsewhere that international is expected to outperform the US over the next decade. If that were true, why wouldn't people sell their US stocks and buy international? Some people think that markets are inefficient because of behavioral mistakes. For example, Nobel winn...
by lazyday
Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's portfolio: does the fact that SC are expensive cause a problem?
Replies: 37
Views: 3215

Re: Larry Swedroe's portfolio: does the fact that SC are expensive cause a problem?

Glad you like it :) You can also see a chart of US Small PE10 over time, on a different RA site: https://interactive.researchaffiliates.com/asset-allocation#!/?currency=USD&expanded=tertiary&group=core&model=ER&models=ER&scale=LINEAR&terms=REAL&tertiary=shiller-pe-cape-ratio-line&type=Equities If th...
by lazyday
Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets or Total International Market?
Replies: 15
Views: 990

Re: Emerging Markets or Total International Market?

50% Total (US) Stock and 50% Total International is fine. You might consider the world market to be the default choice, and 50/50 is close to that. Or you could just use the Total World fund. The Vanguard "Total International Stock Index" fund includes Emerging Markets. If you use another fund compa...
by lazyday
Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's portfolio: does the fact that SC are expensive cause a problem?
Replies: 37
Views: 3215

Re: Larry Swedroe's portfolio: does the fact that SC are expensive cause a problem?

Lauretta, on expensive smallcap stocks: If you haven’t seen it yet, check out https://interactive.researchaffiliates.com/smart-beta.html which attempts to estimate 5 year excess returns from various long only strategies including Small Cap. The page also gives estimates for 5 yr returns from various...
by lazyday
Sat Feb 17, 2018 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 549
Views: 57631

Re: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]

I've wondered if Vanguard's no profit structure even affects things like ETF trading. Vanguard might have smaller fees or friendlier policies for creating and redeeming ETF shares, and who knows, maybe they even work with market makers and arbs that don't take as large of a slice? I'm not sure I've ...
by lazyday
Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Torn between Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab
Replies: 127
Views: 8801

Re: Torn between Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab

I know for a fact that Vanguard pays about 30 basis points more on its federal money market, short term muni fund and intermediate term muni than similar Fidelity products which I own. If you have 6 or 7 figure investments in fixed income, that amounts to a lot of money per year. When holding longe...
by lazyday
Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Value Preservation, Bond-like Returns, Inflation Hedge
Replies: 4
Views: 432

Re: Value Preservation, Bond-like Returns, Inflation Hedge

I don't know if one exists, but I thought I would ask if there is a security that yields above CDs, doesn't decline with stock valuations, and doesn't get hammered by increasing interest rates. I am probably asking for a unicorn. You didn't ask that it be safe! Maybe there's some investment that is...
by lazyday
Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 128
Views: 6890

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

In your example, what is known is the probability of the possible outcomes. My probability is rusty, but I think the probability of getting exactly 10 heads in 20 flips is (20 choose 10)/(2^20), or approximately 0.1762. ... Of course market returns don't have known probabilities in the same way, bu...
by lazyday
Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 128
Views: 6890

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

Just because a prediction doesn't come true, doesn't mean it was a bad prediction. Stock market or coin flips. I think that most people now predicting 3%-4% real know that there's a wide range of possible outcomes. But it might be useful to make an estimate even if you know that it could be high or ...
by lazyday
Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 128
Views: 6890

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

People have been making these kinds of bearish predictions for the last 10 years. Since 2008 SPY has returned over 7% real. A period that arguably includes the worst downturn since 1929. Nobody knows nothin. A fair coin is going to be flipped 20 times. My estimate is that it will come up heads 10 t...
by lazyday
Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's SWR study
Replies: 44
Views: 3415

Re: Morningstar's SWR study

But I have also spent the last 7 years working like a dog and it has affected my marriage in a negative way. I have done great as far as saving money but now I realize that I have given up some great years in my youth that I will not get back. .... I am okay with the possibility of eating cat food ...
by lazyday
Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for a $0 Fee Brokerage for IRA
Replies: 5
Views: 756

Re: Looking for a $0 Fee Brokerage for IRA

Maybe I have bad luck but I keep getting those reorganization fee when companies merge, spin off, or become private. These are big companies too. I also heard of ETF holders getting these fees when the EFT reorganizes. It sounds like you are getting charged for mandatory reorganizations. As I under...
by lazyday
Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for a $0 Fee Brokerage for IRA
Replies: 5
Views: 756

Re: Looking for a $0 Fee Brokerage for IRA

I'd be surprised if you can find that for under $100,000. All the major brokers I've looked at other than Vanguard have a fee for closing your account by transferring shares to another broker. TD Ameritrade "Apex" had an exception for accounts over $100,000 but it's unclear if that's still available...
by lazyday
Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard US Multifactor Fund
Replies: 52
Views: 4076

Re: Vanguard US Multifactor Fund

The existing Global Liquidity Factor ETF (VLQ) from Vanguard Canada should already give an idea of the holdings. Top holdings at the end of 2017 were .... Thanks, didn't know there's already Vanguard liquidity factor funds. Disappointing they hold such large companies. VDLQ has median market cap of...
by lazyday
Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard US Multifactor Fund
Replies: 52
Views: 4076

Re: Vanguard US Multifactor Fund

jhfenton wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:42 pm
Vanguard U.S. Liquidity Factor ETF Shares (VFLQ)
Looking forward to this one. Not to invest in (except maybe during a financial panic) just interested to see how it's run, what it holds, how the ETF price varies from NAV.
by lazyday
Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard US Multifactor Fund
Replies: 52
Views: 4076

Re: Vanguard US Multifactor Fund

You’d pay a 75bps fee to ensure you traded at NAV? Are spreads often that large? I might pay it to get access to the asset class. Small companies can be expensive to trade. If more people are buying than selling ISCF, then someone has to provide the shares and recover their costs somehow. Back when...
by lazyday
Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Warren Buffett explains how to invest in stocks when inflation hits markets"
Replies: 9
Views: 3402

Re: "Warren Buffett explains how to invest in stocks when inflation hits markets"

I suppose if all competitors selling a similar product/service have to be slow in passing on price increases in order to avoid upsetting customers and hurting sales, then all companies will have earnings suffer. And I guess the hit to earnings will be proportional to sales dollars, so the low margin...
by lazyday
Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlations among different types of bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 1166

Re: Correlations among different types of bonds

The article doesn't seem to mention short-term corporate bonds, yet you mentioned their correlations. It's in the table above the text "source: Morningstar Direct" It is interesting that short-term corporate bonds have a significantly higher correlation with stocks than intermediate corporates. The...
by lazyday
Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Warren Buffett explains how to invest in stocks when inflation hits markets"
Replies: 9
Views: 3402

Re: "Warren Buffett explains how to invest in stocks when inflation hits markets"

Thanks for the article. His thinking may have changed a bit since he wrote that #5 you quoted, considering BRK now owns utilities and a railroad, businesses which require new capital over time. In the last annual meeting he or Munger might have said or implied something about preferring companies th...
by lazyday
Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Shiller PE imply negative returns?
Replies: 57
Views: 3218

Re: Does Shiller PE imply negative returns?

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2126478 Thanks. Searching for moving average, or just for Faber, I found some bits where they confirmed his results. From the conclusions: Perhaps the greatest benefit of trend following is the reduction in volatility that accrues to this approach...
by lazyday
Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Shiller PE imply negative returns?
Replies: 57
Views: 3218

Re: Does Shiller PE imply negative returns?

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:31 pm
Subsequent work done by Clare et al. and others has come to similar conclusions as Faber did
Do you know a search term or first name I could use to find that paper?
by lazyday
Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Orders for Selling ETFs
Replies: 16
Views: 1241

Re: Orders for Selling ETFs

I would be uncomfortable placing a market order for more than the number of shares bid at the time. With VWO you might get away with it since it's so liquid, but if it were me I'd split the order up. Maybe there's something I don't understand and it's actually quite safe to place a large market orde...
by lazyday
Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Torn between Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab
Replies: 127
Views: 8801

Re: Torn between Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab

Is there a reason why people don’t talk about Scottrade or TD much in these forums? Are they inferior to Fidelity and Schwab? If you believe surveys and magazine articles listing the "best" brokers, then yes, TDA is worse than Fidelity and Schwab. Really I don't see any reason to choose TDA over Fi...
by lazyday
Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merrill Lynch site crashed today (VG fine)
Replies: 20
Views: 1404

Re: Merrill Lynch site crashed today (VG fine)

how does one avoid systemic risk while engaging with the system? Today I own risky equities and safe fixed income. For example, a big overweight in EM Value might justify a smaller total equity position and more fixed income. There's relatively little systemic risk in FDIC insured accounts, I bonds...
by lazyday
Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?
Replies: 19
Views: 779

Re: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?

Here's an article from Boglehead Siamond: https://finpage.blog/2017/03/25/investing-in-the-world-part-3/ After playing with numbers for a while, the author hypothesized that splitting equities 75% global and 25% domestic would have displayed fairly good properties in the past 45 years (e.g. since 19...
by lazyday
Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?
Replies: 19
Views: 779

Re: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?

@Smith -- sorry, forgot to reply, yes, it's a lot! I'm doing a 60/40 split with equities/cash+bonds to ensure some safety! Could something like this make sense? 45% Vanguard FTSE Global All Cap Index Accumulation 15% FTSE UK All Share Index 40% cash+bonds (UK) That would give you more than 55% expo...
by lazyday
Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:31 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: we need an individual stock sub forum
Replies: 31
Views: 1268

Re: we need an individual stock sub forum

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax. ... ent-ideas/ is pretty good.

Picking stocks based on their merits is not a very Boglehead pastime.
by lazyday
Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep your eye on the owner, not the dog
Replies: 31
Views: 4761

Re: Keep your eye on the owner, not the dog

Derek Tinnin wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:59 am
After a 50% decline, the market reached an all-time high 100% of the time.
You know, some markets really did drop to 0.
by lazyday
Sat Feb 03, 2018 5:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Factors Linked To Business Cycles
Replies: 15
Views: 1262

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factors Linked To Business Cycles

I've been pretty skeptical of the gross profitability/Quality argument myself, but I think it does lend some support to the idea that it's a risk factor because there are higher expectations placed on those companies, so a decrease in earnings or the other maladies a recession brings adversely affe...
by lazyday
Sat Feb 03, 2018 5:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pros & Cons of Zero Coupon Treasuries
Replies: 18
Views: 1368

Re: Pros & Cons of Zero Coupon Treasuries

For zeros that aren't T-bills, one has to buy them from some institution that separated the coupons and principal, STRIPS . From an earlier discussion, I have the impression that if a retail investor bought a Zero and a non-Zero Treasury of the same duration, the Zero will probably have a slightly ...
by lazyday
Sat Feb 03, 2018 5:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best International Small Cap Option
Replies: 29
Views: 2617

Re: Best International Small Cap Option

(When Small-Cap Index tracked the Russell 2000 which was vulnerable to front-running, it beat the index by 1% per year, possibly just by avoiding the front-runners.) That's just amazing! I've seen a couple complaints over the years about Vanguard funds deviating from their indexes, but maybe they k...
by lazyday
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Factors Linked To Business Cycles
Replies: 15
Views: 1262

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factors Linked To Business Cycles

In the table "Cumulative Returns for 6 Factors Across Economic Stages (%)" I'm a bit surprised that the worst returns for RMW is during a recession. These companies are better equipped to survive reduced sales volume or prices. I'd expect them to be much less likely to have negative earnings.
by lazyday
Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Advisers at Schwab, Fidelity, and TD Pushing Products
Replies: 12
Views: 1417

Re: WSJ: Advisers at Schwab, Fidelity, and TD Pushing Products

I do think it's good to have an advocate there; they have rebated some exorbitant fees for reorgs, sometimes with cash, sometimes free trades. As I recall, years ago they specifically stated that "Apex" accounts would not be charged a fee for reorgs. Or maybe it was just mandatory reorgs that were ...
by lazyday
Wed Jan 31, 2018 5:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best International Small Cap Option
Replies: 29
Views: 2617

Re: Best International Small Cap Option

Haha, I think you may have read a few of my other posts based on the lottery ticket comment. That should really be more centered towards the small growth side of the Morningstar style grid though. Larry Swedroe also recommended DLS in his "Big Rocks" portfolio. Guess I really need to dig up that li...
by lazyday
Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tired of online brokerages changing hands
Replies: 2
Views: 606

Re: Tired of online brokerages changing hands

Fidelity and Schwab are so huge that I doubt an account at either will be merged more than once in the next couple decades. https://www.investopedia.com/investing/ ... ler-firms/

And of course Vanguard is unlikely to sell its brokerage off anytime soon.
by lazyday
Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best International Small Cap Option
Replies: 29
Views: 2617

Re: Best International Small Cap Option

Longtermgrowth wrote:
Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:50 am
Sometimes getting deeper into small value territory is worth the added expense.
Of course that might come with more negative exposure to momentum and quality. And depending on the fund, perhaps you might overweight distressed "lottery tickets"--though I haven't looked for that in any fund.
by lazyday
Mon Jan 29, 2018 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SIPC insured limits - how do they affect your financial plan?
Replies: 4
Views: 669

Re: SIPC insured limits - how do they affect your financial plan?

I prefer paper I bonds over electronic even though electronic ones are easier to manage, would choose an FDIC bank account at 1.4% over a money market mutual fund at 1.5%, and would accept a tiny inconvenience to avoid going over $500,000 in a brokerage account. But livesoft’s approach is at least a...