Search found 3384 matches

by lazyday
Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 264
Views: 15777

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

the returns from long TIPs are highly volatile and incur the same interest rate (term) risk as nominals Long TIPS look great to me as part of an "LMP" Liability Matching Portfolio, where for example one constructs a ladder of TIPS to partially fund retirement. If for example, the TIPS interest and ...
by lazyday
Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 264
Views: 15777

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

....next 30 years are the exact mirror image of bond yields over the past thirty years.... The three hypothetical bond funds have maturity ranges of to 2-5 years, 6 to 10 years, and 11 to 30 years. .... https://i.imgur.com/rvgiOwN.png Interesting idea, thanks for posting it. Is the above chart in r...
by lazyday
Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 264
Views: 15777

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

How to Diversify Assets Like a Pro When You Own a Lot of Equities Exhibit 4 shows the portfolios plotted by their annualized return and standard deviation over the period from November 1991 to August 2019. Nice. Though it would have been even more impressive to start in 1981 instead of 1991. https:...
by lazyday
Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Do Historic Share Dilution/Buybacks Not Factor into US & Foreign Expected Returns
Replies: 14
Views: 699

Re: Why Do Historic Share Dilution/Buybacks Not Factor into US & Foreign Expected Returns

AQR also includes buybacks where appropriate. https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Alternative-Thinking/2019-Capital-Market-Assumptions-for-Major-Asset-Classes Both AQR and Research Affiliates explain their methodology in detail. As I recall, RA discusses buybacks in the methodology paper linked by...
by lazyday
Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Yielding Bonds are What Percentage of International Bonds??? Help me frame a reference
Replies: 1
Views: 208

Re: Negative Yielding Bonds are What Percentage of International Bonds??? Help me frame a reference

Dink2018 wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:54 pm
I can't imagine that I would purposefully purchase a negative yielding bond,
Because of "Covered Interest Rate Parity" for a US investor these bonds aren't as bad as they seem.

See this post for example: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=290219#p4743477
by lazyday
Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Beating” the market with i bonds
Replies: 17
Views: 1518

Re: “Beating” the market with i bonds

Could anyone here argue why, aside from simplicity with multiple accounts, how passive investing can match an ibond for a individuals taxable account. This board has generally been positive on I bonds from its start, as far as I recall. I don’t think many here would spend a lot of energy arguing th...
by lazyday
Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Total Int'l Bond VTABX/BNDX Yield 0.29%
Replies: 32
Views: 3361

Re: Vanguard Total Int'l Bond VTABX/BNDX Yield 0.29%

Would it be helpful to have a Bogleheads wiki page on Covered Interest Rate Parity? I don’t have the expertise to write it, just thought it might be helpful to refer to it in threads like this one or https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=289711 especially if the page started off with a si...
by lazyday
Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Episode 013: Bogleheads on Investing - guest Dr. Bill Bernstein, host Rick Ferri
Replies: 36
Views: 4210

Re: Episode 013: Bogleheads on Investing - guest Dr. Bill Bernstein, host Rick Ferri

Just looking at the charts at PV, sometimes I think, Are stocks even worth investing in? From January 1987- December 2011, a 100% bond investor would have produced almost the same returns as a 100% stock investor. In the podcast, I didn’t quite catch it but I think Bill said something like “long te...
by lazyday
Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: negative bond yield
Replies: 15
Views: 940

Re: negative bond yield

The theory of Covered Interest Parity (cost of the FX forward to bring back the future cash flow to your home currency is simply the difference in interest rates for a nearly risk free instrument between the 2 countries) is empirically true as well as theoretically so. Thanks, would have been diffi...
by lazyday
Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: negative bond yield
Replies: 15
Views: 940

Re: negative bond yield

So Vanguard is sticking to its mandate of a fund investing in USD bonds, and corporate bonds. I think the international bond fund that's in Target Retirement funds invests in non-US currency bonds. https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/portfolio/vtabx click "strategy and policy" (my bo...
by lazyday
Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Has the bond bubble finally arrived? If so, is anyone doing anything about it?
Replies: 86
Views: 8989

Re: Has the bond bubble finally arrived? If so, is anyone doing anything about it?

is anyone doing anything about it? First, I would not increase duration or take a new leveraged bond position today. There's several recent posts on this forum from people excited about long bonds or leveraging bond exposure. Much of that may be performance chasing. Buy high sell low. Otherwise, I ...
by lazyday
Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]
Replies: 204
Views: 18677

Re: Michael Burry: Index Funds are like Subprime CDOs

Burry quoted by Bloomberg: And now passive investing has removed price discovery from the equity markets. The simple theses and the models that get people into sectors, factors, indexes, or ETFs and mutual funds mimicking those strategies -- these do not require the security-level analysis that is r...
by lazyday
Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US long term future (and bond rates): Japanese trajectory?
Replies: 27
Views: 2134

Re: US long term future (and bond rates): Japanese trajectory?

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:18 am
I wonder whether the true cause of both variables is a nation's stability.
I believe that low average age is strongly related to being an emerging economy, and emerging nations are not trusted lenders so must borrow at a higher rate.
by lazyday
Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 264
Views: 15777

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

I wonder what the difference would be if you got it exactly "wrong", that is held short term government bonds when the best case was to hold long-term, and vice versa? You could take a look at siamond's earlier post in this thread: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=287627&start=...
by lazyday
Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 264
Views: 15777

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

... hm... vineviz may have a point too! :wink: I looked at various charts, e.g. CAGR, drawdowns, Ulcer index, growth over 30yrs accumulation cycles, SWR over 30yrs withdrawal cycles, etc. I am not going to post a bunch of charts, but the bottomline is that, AT THE PORTFOLIO LEVEL, the second portfo...
by lazyday
Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Investors Making A Killing
Replies: 85
Views: 8803

Re: Bond Investors Making A Killing

the neutral stance for investors is to set bond duration roughly equal to their investment horizon Do some academics suggest this for nominal bonds? If I were to match my bond duration to my future spending needs, then personally I’d want I bonds and TIPS. I see nominal bonds as more for reducing p...
by lazyday
Thu Aug 29, 2019 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Investors Making A Killing
Replies: 85
Views: 8803

Re: Bond Investors Making A Killing

, I’m encouraging investors to rely on sound economic principles in building their investment strategy instead of relying on emotional appeals I do think that Vanguard’s 5 risk rating doesn’t tell the whole story, and in theory EDV might potentially be useful for reducing the risk of a portfolio. Y...
by lazyday
Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Investors Making A Killing
Replies: 85
Views: 8803

Re: Bond Investors Making A Killing

....three different 80/20 portfolios, one using a bond fund from Risk Level 1 (VCSH), one from Risk Level 3 (VGLT), and one from Risk Level 5 (EDV). The blue bars are annualized standard deviation and the orange bars are maximum drawdown. https://i.imgur.com/tleWQKN.png Can anyone say, with a strai...
by lazyday
Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan and PE Ratio
Replies: 45
Views: 3359

Re: Japan and PE Ratio

If true that Japan post bubble had 4.1% return I think you're missing this important bit: Stripping out the impacts of P/E multiple changes, So I suppose if JoMoney is correct, then if today the Japanese market price rose so that P/E is as high as it was in the bubble, then the return would be 4.1%.
by lazyday
Wed Aug 28, 2019 6:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is buying into a 10 year bond fund today buying at a bond market high
Replies: 20
Views: 1670

Re: Is buying into a 10 year bond fund today buying at a bond market high

retired for 4 years During the 1970s bond portfolios could achieve growth, despite/because of rising rates, by reinvesting in bonds with the higher coupon rates. Is this also true for a retiree making withdrawals from the portfolio? Didn’t retirees in that era suffer from falling real bond prices? ...
by lazyday
Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 195
Views: 22218

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund

Usually when I strike out on Vangaurd's website I am able to find better fund visibility through 3rd party brokerages The most direct way might be to look at annual or semiannual reports, which I'd guess is where those third parties might get their data. (Unless there's other SEC filings with portf...
by lazyday
Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point would Bonds be considered a bubble or 'speculative asset'?
Replies: 47
Views: 3819

Re: At what point would Bonds be considered a bubble or 'speculative asset'?

All we really have to go on is the past history of the trend relationship between GDP growth rates and nominal interest rates (including inflation) — which has been fairly strong in the U.S. over the past 60 years (chart below). https://i.imgur.com/I0FZR4n.jpg Note: GDP growth rates and 10-year bon...
by lazyday
Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point would Bonds be considered a bubble or 'speculative asset'?
Replies: 47
Views: 3819

Re: At what point would Bonds be considered a bubble or 'speculative asset'?

Personally, I'm not sure about very much at all! That makes me feel a little better. :) I don’t know how much I buy into a link between rates and future growth. It makes sense to me that if people expect a recession, they might also expect central banks to keep short rates low and maybe buy more lo...
by lazyday
Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point would Bonds be considered a bubble or 'speculative asset'?
Replies: 47
Views: 3819

Re: At what point would Bonds be considered a bubble or 'speculative asset'?

As usual SimpleGift gets beneath the surface and to the cause of the situation. You and SimpleGift sound fairly sure of things. :) Japan exists to remind us that long term borrowing rates can, indeed, go lower. And stay low for very long periods. A few times over the years, I’ve seen people leave J...
by lazyday
Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point would Bonds be considered a bubble or 'speculative asset'?
Replies: 47
Views: 3819

Re: At what point would Bonds be considered a bubble or 'speculative asset'?

Bonds have seemed insanely expensive for so long now that people have gotten used to it. In Bogleheads posts and in articles online, people seem to expect even lower rates in the future. Or they calmly report on outrageous situations as if they are boring and normal. Some analysts and gurus seem rel...
by lazyday
Sun Aug 25, 2019 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.
Replies: 249
Views: 21008

Re: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.

Corporate bonds will never go negative. Some already have. Link? We are talking about Vanguard VBTLX. Globally, over $1 trillion worth. Including some issued overseas by US companies. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/21/negative-yielding-debt-poses-major-risks-for-investors.html https://fm-static.cnbc....
by lazyday
Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.
Replies: 249
Views: 21008

Re: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2019 2:54 pm
Corporate bonds will never go negative.
Some already have.
by lazyday
Sat Aug 24, 2019 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 470
Views: 112774

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

AlohaJoe wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:21 pm
We can plug that into a calculator to easily check starting stock percentage, lowest bond percentage, highest bond percentage, and average bond percentage. Everything matches his table except the starting stock percentage.
Thanks, AlohaJoe
by lazyday
Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 470
Views: 112774

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

With a glidepath (p. 48) stock percentages taper off slowly at the beginning of retirement and accelerate at the end In Figure 43 on p. 85, the “Initial Stock Allocation” is 13%, so the initial bond allocation is 87%. The “Bond Average” allocation is 40%. For glidepath, how can the average bond allo...
by lazyday
Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Practically speaking, what are negative interest rates
Replies: 16
Views: 2556

Re: Practically speaking, what are negative interest rates

....debt goes poof due to defaults and bankruptcy. But the system can keep going if we go into negative interest rates.... While I doubt we’ll see many junk bonds that were issued with negative nominal yield, low rates could allow inefficient companies to survive longer. pdf https://www.bis.org/pub...
by lazyday
Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead’s Vanguard Dogma
Replies: 31
Views: 2943

Re: Boglehead’s Vanguard Dogma

If it were me, I might buy Schwab index funds biweekly and then once a year switch everything to Vanguard.
by lazyday
Mon Aug 19, 2019 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting new factor exposure tool
Replies: 18
Views: 1208

Re: Interesting new factor exposure tool

This looks great. Thanks for posting. I can't seem to figure out how to find these graphs on the info pages. I'm interested in VBR, VSS and VWO. VBR: https://i.imgur.com/2Vg1uDO.png Do you have a link? I'm not seeing that graph on https://www.etf.com/VBR There's a section VBR MSCI FaCS AND FACTOR B...
by lazyday
Mon Aug 19, 2019 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total market index fund and recency
Replies: 29
Views: 2013

Re: Total market index fund and recency

I often mention total markets, though my own equity is almost exclusively in value. While I still believe in value, I suspect that most people are better off investing more simply. Individual investors supposedly lose 2% a year buying high and selling low, and simply owning the market might reduce t...
by lazyday
Mon Aug 19, 2019 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confused, bummed, and concerned
Replies: 74
Views: 10489

Re: Confused, bummed, and concerned

Bacchus01 wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 7:47 am
The irony of your argument is that you are basing this analysis on the Schiller ratio, which measures historical returns to current prices. Hmmmm.
I don't think that Shiller PE (he called it CAPE, many call it PE10) measures returns.
by lazyday
Mon Aug 19, 2019 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confused, bummed, and concerned
Replies: 74
Views: 10489

Re: Confused, bummed, and concerned

I think it’s pretty irresponsible to look at a single year in the past and consider it inclusive of the past. The year 1975 comes from the top post in this thread, which shows returns if you invested for 40 years starting in 1975. To compare that to investing for 40 years starting today, we could c...
by lazyday
Sun Aug 18, 2019 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg: U.S. Weighs Selling 50- and 100-Year Bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 3651

Re: Bloomberg: U.S. Weighs Selling 50- and 100-Year Bonds

whodidntante wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 1:08 pm
Valuethinker wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 1:00 pm
Remember modified duration is just the first derivative the slope of the curve at a point on tangency
Some things are just obvious.
Modified duration is just the first derivative the slope of the curve at a point on tangency. You can tell because of the way it is.
by lazyday
Sun Aug 18, 2019 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg: U.S. Weighs Selling 50- and 100-Year Bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 3651

Re: Bloomberg: U.S. Weighs Selling 50- and 100-Year Bonds

These might be useful for concentrated duration exposure.

For example:

Code: Select all

$300,000 Ladder of TIPS, I bonds, CDs

90%      Total World Stock
10%      100 year Treasury
However, the market timer in me wouldn’t touch them at today's rates.
by lazyday
Fri Aug 16, 2019 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 74
Views: 13505

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

If one were to dip their toe into international and start small to reduce behavioral tendencies, in your opinion would it be better to add say 5-10 EM instead of say 20-25 MSCI-EAFE since the idea being the correlation .... [snip] This question comes from someone who has avoided many of my behavior...
by lazyday
Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confused, bummed, and concerned
Replies: 74
Views: 10489

Re: Confused, bummed, and concerned

I have not seen any evidence to suggest - equities are less risky - alternatives to equities are less risky - risk profiles of investors have changed Given that, there is no reason to believe future returns will look any different than past returns. Here's a counterargument: http://www.efficientfro...
by lazyday
Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense
Replies: 92
Views: 6612

Re: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense

It makes sense to me that with more capital, both interest rates and the risk premium will shrink. But maybe it happened too suddenly for this to be a reasonable explanation for the decline in long rates, and for expensive US equity in recent decades? Why are long rates so low in Europe but stocks r...
by lazyday
Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense
Replies: 92
Views: 6612

Re: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense

One simple way to test the OP hypothesis (higher life expectancy -> lower interest rates) is to compare today's life expectancy in various countries around the world against their current interest rates. The chart below regresses current life expectancy with 10-year government bond yields for 45 co...
by lazyday
Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confused, bummed, and concerned
Replies: 74
Views: 10489

Re: Confused, bummed, and concerned

I have not seen any evidence to suggest - equities are less risky - alternatives to equities are less risky - risk profiles of investors have changed Given that, there is no reason to believe future returns will look any different than past returns. Here's a counterargument: http://www.efficientfro...
by lazyday
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confused, bummed, and concerned
Replies: 74
Views: 10489

Re: Confused, bummed, and concerned

Svensk Anga wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:55 pm
There were (and still are) a whole lot of ways to go astray when good guidance was harder to come by. Whole life insurance, load mutual funds,
Good point. There's probably few people who in 1975 invested directly in US stocks and then let it sit for 40 years.
by lazyday
Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confused, bummed, and concerned
Replies: 74
Views: 10489

Re: Confused, bummed, and concerned

He touts "Over the 40 years from January 1975- January 2015 the market has averaged an annual return of ~11.9% with dividends reinvested" many times throughout as well as on his site. If you buy a convenience store at a bargain price, you might make a lot of money over the years, relative to your i...
by lazyday
Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would investors ever choose arbitrary allocation of US/nonUS stocks?
Replies: 69
Views: 4661

Re: What would investors ever choose arbitrary allocation of US/nonUS stocks?

(2) Investable Asset Classes Not all additional risk assumed is compensated for. I cannot invest in Venezeula and say, "the market must adequately compensate me for extra risk I am assuming by investing in this place….” Not all assets should be included in the portfolio. If there were a Venezuela fu...
by lazyday
Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would investors ever choose arbitrary allocation of US/nonUS stocks?
Replies: 69
Views: 4661

Re: What would investors ever choose arbitrary allocation of US/nonUS stocks?

(1) Ideological Purity I am not here to be a purist. I think it’s important to admit to ourselves when we are making bets with our money. I’m a US investor with 90% of my equity outside of the US. This is a bet. I don’t just tell a story and pretend that I’m following principles of diversification. ...
by lazyday
Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Source of U.S. Stock Market Returns, 1952-2018
Replies: 11
Views: 1235

Re: Source of U.S. Stock Market Returns, 1952-2018

In short, rather than reinvesting their cash flow into their businesses, either in job-creating projects or employee compensation, companies retained this cash or expended it as dividends and share repurchases. Maybe just a nitpick here: from a quick read of the conclusions, I have the impression t...
by lazyday
Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Domestic returns next 10 years
Replies: 45
Views: 2980

Re: Domestic returns next 10 years

RA estimates 0.4% annualized real return for US equities over the next 10 years. 5.2% for EAFE (similar to Developed Ex-US), and 6.9% for EM. https://interactive.researchaffiliates.com/asset-allocation/#!/?category=Developed+Markets¤cy=USD&group=core&model=ER&models=ER&scale=LINEAR&selected=1&...
by lazyday
Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would investors ever choose arbitrary allocation of US/nonUS stocks?
Replies: 69
Views: 4661

Re: What would investors ever choose arbitrary allocation of US/nonUS stocks?

You'll also likely hear that overseas reporting for companies are not as strict and therefore riskier to buy into. This does make sense, for example, China probably faking data, but...isn't that already priced in? No it's not priced in. Certainly not to the full extent. If you don't know how much t...
by lazyday
Mon Aug 12, 2019 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The One-Fund Portfolio as a default suggestion
Replies: 81
Views: 9191

Re: The One-Fund Portfolio as a default suggestion

It makes sense that a single fund portfolio would save many investors from behavioral errors that almost everyone makes. Fewer retirements would be delayed by the kinds of mistakes we see Bogleheads making on this forum every day. I wonder though if Target Retirement might be a better portfolio 1 de...