Search found 3783 matches

by lazyday
Thu Apr 02, 2020 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Edward Chancellor interview, author of Devil Take the Hindmost
Replies: 0
Views: 133

Edward Chancellor interview, author of Devil Take the Hindmost

https://moneyweek.com/economy/global-economy/601080/edward-chancellor-governments-reaction-to-the-virus-will-come-back-to (First ~25 mins: Chancellor is skeptical of epidemiologists and lockdowns.) at 26min: Stimulus causes consumption at a time when supply is down, leading to inflation. Reverse of ...
by lazyday
Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [CARES Act] Overview
Replies: 98
Views: 6415

Re: CARE Act Overview

Retired2013 wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:37 pm
Reading the CARE act, it looks like they are giving you a refundable credit on your 2018 or 2019 tax return.
Sounds like the $1200 might not be taxable income, and might not increase ACA MAGI for 2020?
by lazyday
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Total Bond and not Treasuries?
Replies: 161
Views: 14576

Re: Why Total Bond and not Treasuries?

TNOA wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:09 am
Well, it did not prove to offer any protection in this collapse, did it?
What's "it"?

Treasuries and/or TIPS?

Total Bond and Total Intl Bond?
by lazyday
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296697

Re: Coronavirus and the market

can someone quantify why we should expect global public companies to be worth 30% less than they were at the start of the year going forward? Stocks are riskier than they were. With a secure job, it’s not so risky to put your money in stocks instead of, say, short term Treasuries. With job insecuri...
by lazyday
Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this the end of risk parity?
Replies: 31
Views: 2348

Re: Is this the end of risk parity?

Maybe we should start using ≅. ~0 ≅0 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/≅ I'm lazy, will prob just do approx 0 More on topic: If factory shutdowns cause severe supply shocks, leading to both a surge in inflation and declining equities, then some levered risk parity strategies will be absolutely slaughter...
by lazyday
Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Treasury Bonds no longer a safe haven w/ 0% interest rates
Replies: 57
Views: 4030

Re: Are Treasury Bonds no longer a safe haven w/ 0% interest rates

For institutional investors with nominal future obligations, Treasuries might be safe. For individuals with real future spending needs: Long term Treasuries are not safe. Their value will fall if interest rates rise quickly. Even if held to maturity, inflation could destroy value. I bonds are safe. ...
by lazyday
Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 Credit Suisse Global Investments Returns Yearbook is out
Replies: 10
Views: 757

Re: 2020 Credit Suisse Global Investments Returns Yearbook is out

The latest FTSE Russell survey of major global investors reports …. In 2019, smart beta adoption rates globally reached a record high of 58% Overweighting of factor investments should drive prices up and future returns down. Yet for some factors, such as Value, the recent ratio of price multiples o...
by lazyday
Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett: American public has been going ‘wild’ with enthusiasm for index funds
Replies: 9
Views: 3304

Re: Buffett: American public has been going ‘wild’ with enthusiasm for index funds

Rowan Oak wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:42 am
Josh Brown's blog (The Reformed Broker) listing all parts of the video interview without commercials:
Everything Warren Buffett said on CNBC this morning
Very nice, thanks for linking that. Easy to listen to the more interesting bits.
by lazyday
Sun Feb 23, 2020 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119283

Re: [Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!]

The paper only looks as US value. Here's some data on Developed ex US and EM. There's clickable i symbols for information, or methodology pdf here: https://www.researchaffiliates.com/documents/smart-beta-methodologies.pdf?v=5 Large+mid value: https://interactive.researchaffiliates.com/smart-beta#!/...
by lazyday
Mon Feb 17, 2020 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Market is acting like late August, 2000, or late October, 2007]
Replies: 82
Views: 7182

Re: [Market is acting like late August, 2000, or late October, 2007]

midareff wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 9:51 am
it must have been a clarity issue although I thought I was quite clear
It's clear if we click on the thread, but I don't click on threads to find out what the subject is. I only clicked on this thread to read it after the subject line was changed.
by lazyday
Mon Feb 17, 2020 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We are in the 'ludicrous season'
Replies: 51
Views: 5870

Re: We are in the 'ludicrous season'

stock market rise is mainly due to ... buybacks and <snip> https://blog.evergreengavekal.com/bye-bye-buybacks/ Net buybacks in the US have increased from minus 2% per year ( Bernstein and Arnott ) to positive 0.7% (your link above). Maybe the US market has been driven up from spending on buybacks i...
by lazyday
Mon Feb 17, 2020 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We are in the 'ludicrous season'
Replies: 51
Views: 5870

Re: We are in the 'ludicrous season'

I'm open to suggestions, but the hoary old 'just stick to your asset allocation' isn't very helpful, because in an 'everything bubble', that asset class diversity doesn't translate into protection. But is it an everything bubble? US is in a bubble, by almost any metric. Especially compared to prett...
by lazyday
Mon Feb 17, 2020 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We are in the 'ludicrous season'
Replies: 51
Views: 5870

Re: We are in the 'ludicrous season'

ukbogler wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 5:50 am
In an 'everything bubble', what the dickens do you buy, if you have cash, and don't want to have cash?
Do you think UK equity is in a bubble?

Or developed market equity outside of the US, or EM equity?
by lazyday
Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses
Replies: 2119
Views: 372707

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses

With Ally, be aware that the brokerage bonus is a once-in-a-lifetime thing. Still true? Has anyone taken a bonus from Ally twice? Offer is open to U.S. residents only and excludes current Ally Invest account holders and former Ally Invest (formerly TradeKing Securities LLC) account holders who have...
by lazyday
Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody buying gold?
Replies: 112
Views: 5106

Re: Anybody buying gold?

ETF tracking the S&P Commodity Producers Gold Index. The "senior" miners I think is the right term. One of the investments which are cheaper today than before the GFC. How do you value the gold miners? The ways I've seen people value gold miners seem anywhere from odd to crazy to me. Here's someone...
by lazyday
Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody buying gold?
Replies: 112
Views: 5106

Re: Anybody buying gold?

And I agree with you that the case against owning a little gold is certainly weaker when bonds are yielding 0% real. Has anyone tried to backtest that? For example, buy gold when real rates are low, sell when they are high. Or we could simply chart both real rates and real gold price over time. If ...
by lazyday
Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value Premium - New FF paper
Replies: 264
Views: 14786

Re: The Value Premium - New FF paper

I checked the EAFE indices since 1994 (when MSCI LCV starts) and EAFE Value DID fare better, but EAFE Large Value didn't display a premium over EAFE, which was my point all along. This being said, those are just quick & dirty point tests. We need to do something more thorough, diversifying the samp...
by lazyday
Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value Premium - New FF paper
Replies: 264
Views: 14786

Re: The Value Premium - New FF paper

I think all the factor premia (value, momentum, profitability) tend to be more pronounced in the smaller caps. Any data or opinions on if this is also true outside the US? This is more or less true, according to F/F: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1720139 Thanks. From the paper...
by lazyday
Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value Premium - New FF paper
Replies: 264
Views: 14786

Re: The Value Premium - New FF paper

siamond wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:06 pm
Unsurprisingly, LCV continues to not make a meaningful difference while SCV and MCV certainly do.
Random Walker wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:19 pm
I think all the factor premia (value, momentum, profitability) tend to be more pronounced in the smaller caps.
Any data or opinions on if this is also true outside the US?
by lazyday
Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody buying gold?
Replies: 112
Views: 5106

Re: Anybody buying gold?

Forester wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:54 pm
ETF tracking the S&P Commodity Producers Gold Index. The "senior" miners I think is the right term. One of the investments which are cheaper today than before the GFC.
How do you value the gold miners?
by lazyday
Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR 2020 Capital Market Assumptions (real return predictions)
Replies: 5
Views: 535

AQR 2020 Capital Market Assumptions (real return predictions)

https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Alternative-Thinking/2020-Capital-Market-Assumptions-for-Major-Asset-Classes The link above shows the real returns summary, and links to a pdf for details. There's some new predictions, including Value and Multifactor long only portfolios: We believe a hypotheti...
by lazyday
Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US national debt - talk me down!
Replies: 42
Views: 3343

Re: US national debt - talk me down!

Are there any other similar countries/economies in the world with similar high national debt? Here’s the countries with the largest stock markets: Debt % OF GDP HONG KONG 0.1 RUSSIA 17.4 TAIWAN 35.2 DENMARK 36.4 KOREA, SOUTH 39.8 SWEDEN 40.9 AUSTRALIA 41.6 SWITZERLAND 42.8 CHINA 47.8 SOUTH AFRICA 5...
by lazyday
Sun Feb 02, 2020 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IRA's and CD's
Replies: 12
Views: 1457

Re: IRA's and CD's

However chasing CD yields can be a hassle and it seems rolling over IRA CDs from bank/CU to another CD/CU every few years would further complicates one's life. I’ve found it to be a lot of work and frustration, but worth it for large CDs. From the "Best CD rates thread": https://www.bogleheads.org/...
by lazyday
Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "If Value Stocks Are Toxic, Why Aren’t Junk Bonds?"
Replies: 6
Views: 827

Re: "If Value Stocks Are Toxic, Why Aren’t Junk Bonds?"

The chart is interesting. The 10 yr value premium over growth seems negatively correlated to the junk premium over corporates.

The chart is only 26 years long, maybe it’s a coincidence.
by lazyday
Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity business model. I don’t understand.
Replies: 82
Views: 8654

Re: Fidelity business model. I don’t understand.

You can check fund documents (maybe the SAI) to see what % of security lending revenue is kept by Fidelity. Years ago, they kept a high percentage, but as I recall that changed.
by lazyday
Wed Jan 29, 2020 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: James Montier (Emerging Markets vs US)
Replies: 35
Views: 1907

Re: James Montier (Emerging Markets vs US)

I'm curious what sources indicate that small and value are cheap compared to history https://interactive.researchaffiliates.com/smart-beta#!/strategies?category=Size&expanded=timeSeriesChart&expandedSelection=Model®ion=US&selected=size-small-cap The median historical “aggregate valuation” (click...
by lazyday
Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: James Montier (Emerging Markets vs US)
Replies: 35
Views: 1907

Re: James Montier (Emerging Markets vs US)

Montier noted that 25%-30% of U.S. companies are producing losses. And that holds whether one uses GAAP making adjustments to GAAP. That figure surpasses the percentage of money-losing operations at the peak of the technology bubble. Given that everyone knows about factor premiums and the concept o...
by lazyday
Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is ETF bid-ask spread a concern for long-term investing?
Replies: 23
Views: 1430

Re: Is ETF bid-ask spread a concern for long-term investing?

The thing I'm worried about with limit orders is that prices will swing too heavily in the other direction and keep going up and I'll have missed the chance to buy at the current price. Vanguard suggests using marketable limit orders. For example, if the current quote is 20.00 / 20.01, you might pl...
by lazyday
Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter Thiel: "But the mood is not like late '99"
Replies: 17
Views: 3316

Re: Peter Thiel: "But the mood is not like late '99"

in terms of the macroeconomic indicators, the stock markets, the valuations of the larger companies, it's like way beyond the dot-com peaks of 2000 in all sorts of ways Can anybody defend this I don't know about macro indicators. On valuations it does seem overstated. There’s probably several ways ...
by lazyday
Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter Thiel: "But the mood is not like late '99"
Replies: 17
Views: 3316

Re: Peter Thiel: "But the mood is not like late '99"

grog wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:41 am
around 30-35 minutes
Thanks for giving a timestamp :)
by lazyday
Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Alliant Roth IRA
Replies: 6
Views: 368

Re: Alliant Roth IRA

you should pack all Roth accounts with those asset classes that are expected to provide you the highest returns: stocks. Not bonds, not money market accounts, not CDs, not treasury bills/notes. It depends on your assumptions. The typical advice is to put your bonds in tax advantaged accounts and st...
by lazyday
Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is ETF bid-ask spread a concern for long-term investing?
Replies: 23
Views: 1430

Re: Is ETF bid-ask spread a concern for long-term investing?

For broad "Total" funds, the spread is usually irrelevant. You can usually buy VT, VTI, VXUS, BND during market hours with a marketable limit order and pay only a tiny spread. Ideally you would wait until the market has been open for perhaps an hour, but for those funds I doubt this is really necess...
by lazyday
Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is ETF bid-ask spread a concern for long-term investing?
Replies: 23
Views: 1430

Re: Is ETF bid-ask spread a concern for long-term investing?

You could use Fidelity to buy Vanguard ETFs. I trust Vanguard more and would use their funds even if ER is a tiny bit higher. Vanguard might be a bit lower in risk. In some cases, fund holdings themselves might be lower risk, even for the same index. And there's probably less risk of management acti...
by lazyday
Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ally vs Treasury Direct
Replies: 32
Views: 3050

Re: Ally vs Treasury Direct

I don’t see much benefit in using TD to own T bills. You can’t sell them there, so there’s a delay if you want to convert them to money. Probably a long delay, but I don’t have any experience transferring bills from TD. High yield FDIC/NCUA savings, CDs, I bonds, munis, individual TIPS or Treasuries...
by lazyday
Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Permanent losses possible in US stocks?
Replies: 37
Views: 3057

Re: Permanent losses possible in US stocks?

There’s different ways to think about permanent loss. If you buy a Cuban business and in 1960 it’s taken from you, you may have suffered permanent loss of capital. If you buy Japan equity in 1990 and die in 2020 with a loss, you may have suffered permanent loss of capital. If you buy Tesla bonds at ...
by lazyday
Sat Jan 25, 2020 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS as part of fixed income allocation
Replies: 37
Views: 2393

Re: TIPS as part of fixed income allocation

I'd never be able to allocate more than low single digit percentages to I-bonds due to the annual purchase limits. They still might be useful for flexibility in emergency spending. Another place to draw funds if you need to, without losing space in your Roth or taking capital gains in taxable. Ther...
by lazyday
Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5 charts on marketvaluation
Replies: 3
Views: 409

Re: 5 charts on marketvaluation

This isn't the same as 2000, when viewed against forward PES and compared to bond yields. So perhaps sleep a little easier? 2000 was a pretty big bubble, so cheaper than 2000 is a low bar. For more charts, https://www.yardeni.com/pub/valcapsales.pdf Figure 4. Tobin's Q Figure 7. S&P 500 PRICE-TO-SA...
by lazyday
Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At some point you'll probably lose at least 30% (real) from your diversified portfolio: Meb Faber
Replies: 96
Views: 8355

Re: At some point you'll probably lose at least 30% (real) from your diversified portfolio: Meb Faber

Not so sure that TIPS fare any better than nominals of the same duration. The max drawdown of intermediate TIPS was actually greater than the drawdown of 10-year nominals back in 08. In the last crisis, TIPS didn't do well. But when talking about a 30% loss, it’s hard not to see intermediate TIPS a...
by lazyday
Sat Jan 25, 2020 6:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much to hold in international equities (VTIAX)?
Replies: 248
Views: 15074

Re: How much to hold in international equities (VTIAX)?

Europe and Japan beating the US overall in my lifetime is extremely far-fetched when considering the myriad seemingly intractable issues they're facing Can Energy beat Tech over your lifetime? Do you have Exxon in your funds? Even if you are right about the Europe and Japan economies, their stock m...
by lazyday
Sat Jan 25, 2020 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At some point you'll probably lose at least 30% (real) from your diversified portfolio: Meb Faber
Replies: 96
Views: 8355

Re: At some point you'll probably lose at least 30% (real) from your diversified portfolio: Meb Faber

minimalistmarc wrote:
Sat Jan 25, 2020 3:09 am
A leveraged golden butterfly portfolio seems sensible but too much effort for me
With leverage you can safely maximize past returns.

It also seems a good way to maximize future max drawdown.
by lazyday
Sat Jan 25, 2020 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?
Replies: 113
Views: 5781

Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

During the Lost Decade from 2001-2009, US TSM CAGR was 0.95%. During this 8 year stretch, a 100% US TSM portfolio would have lost to a 100% TBM portfolio by 453 bps of CAGR. And if you invested in the S&P 500 in March of 2000, after reinvesting dividends and adjusting for inflation, in March 2009 y...
by lazyday
Sat Jan 25, 2020 5:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?
Replies: 113
Views: 5781

Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Crashes always end. It’s never different this time I wonder if those investors in Japan 1992, Germany 1945, Argentina 2002, Iran 1979 felt the same way? I see a common sentiment these days that even if equities crash they will recover in a short period of time. This is not necessarily true. US cras...
by lazyday
Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are interest rates ever going back up?
Replies: 98
Views: 7798

Re: Are interest rates ever going back up?

I try to be prepared for things to change or to stay the same.
by lazyday
Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much to hold in international equities (VTIAX)?
Replies: 248
Views: 15074

Re: How much to hold in international equities (VTIAX)?

Arguing that not wanting to invest in the European and Japanese stock markets is like not wanting to invest in anything other than QQQ is arguing for a false analogy. You demonstrate below that it's a good analogy. I'm all in favor of diversification, but there is no real peer for the US these days...
by lazyday
Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much to hold in international equities (VTIAX)?
Replies: 248
Views: 15074

Re: How much to hold in international equities (VTIAX)?

past performance is indicative of future results. Growth (US) will always trump value (international). The markets are inefficient and incapable of correctly valuing US vs international. We CAN predict the future. .... These are very strange arguments to be advanced on Bogleheads. JBTX, good posts....
by lazyday
Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF to Hold for 50 Years
Replies: 118
Views: 10418

Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

am wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:58 am
Upro and tmf triple leveraged sp500 long treasury strategy. Might look in 50 years and not believe your eyes.
Probably just some cash in the account, no shares.
by lazyday
Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Analysis Paralysis on International in Taxable
Replies: 21
Views: 1359

Re: Analysis Paralysis on International in Taxable

I am 100% Equities (I am 32 with no dependents) and can stomach a 50% drop tomorrow. Equities can drop much more than 50%. Especially with a big overweight in one country, you could see a drop of 50 followed by another 50, for a 75% loss. In the Great Depression, US stocks fell about 80% real or 90...
by lazyday
Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Analysis Paralysis on International in Taxable
Replies: 21
Views: 1359

Re: Analysis Paralysis on International in Taxable

I have seen a lot more BH posts that are bullish on emerging as compared to developed Be careful following the crowd, it's often wrong. I'm more bullish on EM myself, but have low confidence. Not that people who make confident financial predictions are often right. For the whole portfolio, Total Wo...
by lazyday
Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much to hold in international equities (VTIAX)?
Replies: 248
Views: 15074

Re: How much to hold in international equities (VTIAX)?

[2012 paper] "A significant weakness of this analysis is that it is backward-looking and particularly dependent on the time period examined. For example, at different observation dates, the “optimal” allocation to non U.S stocks has been as low as 20% or as high as 70%." I don't think Vanguard gave...
by lazyday
Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My "savings account": is it okay to go 50/50 cash/bonds?
Replies: 10
Views: 1610

Re: My "savings account": is it okay to go 50/50 cash/bonds?

My risk tolerance is low for this account. I wouldn't use VWESX for any of the account. I might use Treasury Bills, Vanguard money market, high yield savings with FDIC or NCUA, short term Treasury, or if it makes sense for taxes, maybe a safe muni fund. If it's ok to have limited access to the mone...