Search found 214 matches

by dboeger1
Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asymmetric risk in the Roth vs Traditional question
Replies: 280
Views: 11463

Re: Asymmetric risk in the Roth vs Traditional question

An additional factor is that if you find that your are accumulating too much in a traditional account then you have the option of; 1) Retiring a few years early in a lower tax bracket. 2) Doing Roth conversions. I think this is an extremely important point that arguably applies more to the types of...
by dboeger1
Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has U.S oupterformed or has International underperformed?
Replies: 32
Views: 2199

Re: Has U.S oupterformed or has International underperformed?

They've both performed and will continue to do so at different levels. What those levels will be is anybody's best guess. Do you ask whether Apple or Amazon has out- or under- performed before buying?
by dboeger1
Thu Jun 04, 2020 8:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: DCA frequency
Replies: 24
Views: 1075

Re: DCA frequency

Instead of DCAing, why don't you try investing with a more conservative allocation and be done with it? Equities can go down by large sums at ANY time. There's nothing about the DCA program that, once concluded (i.e. fully invested), protects you from that risk from that point henceforward. I wish ...
by dboeger1
Thu Jun 04, 2020 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump
Replies: 189
Views: 16380

Re: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump

Turn on the news and you'll likely see a combination of stories about the spread of coronavirus and civil unrest over inequality. These are trying times. They should serve as a wake-up call that there's no guarantee that the US will continue to be the global superpower it is today. And yet the U.S....
by dboeger1
Thu Jun 04, 2020 8:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to invest 10K for the next 18 to 24 months?
Replies: 4
Views: 589

Re: Where to invest 10K for the next 18 to 24 months?

I'm kind of in a similar position with a somewhat larger sum of money that I don't want to invest in markets because I'm considering buying real estate in the short to medium term. What I'm doing is taking advantage of new bank account promo bonuses. This can effectively give you a higher savings ra...
by dboeger1
Thu Jun 04, 2020 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump
Replies: 189
Views: 16380

Re: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump

I think a lot of people tend to confuse consistent price growth with returns. You know the saying, "you don't lose if you don't sell?" Your returns are the profits you take when you sell. If I have shares of VTI worth $1 today and VXUS worth $1 as well, and tomorrow, VTI goes down to $0.50 while VXU...
by dboeger1
Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to approach a friend: a first time investor bought a single stock
Replies: 43
Views: 3113

Re: How to approach a friend: a first time investor bought a single stock

I think it's important to remember that the vast majority of Americans barely think about their finances at all, so all things considered, your friend is at least trending in the right direction. I wouldn't really try to force the issue beyond just offering your help and advice should they ask. I re...
by dboeger1
Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent of value stocks are actually risky?
Replies: 13
Views: 1285

Re: What percent of value stocks are actually risky?

Admittedly, I'm not very academically studied on factor investing, only recently looking into it as a complete newbie. But my understanding, and the thing that keeps bringing me back to the total market index, is that all individual stocks have high uncompensated idiosyncratic risk, and it's only un...
by dboeger1
Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 50% pay cut: moving advice
Replies: 68
Views: 4974

Re: 50% pay cut: moving advice

Full disclosure: I'm still early in my career in the Bay Area and don't own any real estate myself, so I'm speaking with less experience, but I'm a pretty committed FIRE-type investor who has also been researching real estate, so I'll chime in. First, on the topic of returning to your current home s...
by dboeger1
Wed May 27, 2020 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to avoid tinkering?
Replies: 40
Views: 2187

Re: How to avoid tinkering?

I personally listen to Bogle's "Little Book of Common Sense Investing" in audiobook form every few years. It moved mountains in my mind the first time I read it, but like most other humans, I get those urges to tinker every so often. That book quickly disposes of those. It provides an overwhelming w...
by dboeger1
Wed May 27, 2020 5:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What will you NOT buy online?
Replies: 94
Views: 6309

Re: What will you NOT buy online?

I personally won't buy perishable foods, clothes, furniture, cars, or houses strictly online. I say strictly because I may use elements of online shopping, such as placing an online order after trying something in store if the company offers both options (I don't abuse this by trying things in store...
by dboeger1
Wed May 27, 2020 5:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How can I use 6 weeks of vacation in the next 6 months in the Covid era?
Replies: 37
Views: 3416

Re: How can I use 6 weeks of vacation in the next 6 months in the Covid era?

I don't really know if this is in line with your expectations for vacation, but I'll just throw it out there because I'm in a similar situation and have been thinking about it. Personally, I have several side projects that I've wanted to pursue and attempt to turn into a business, but I've never bee...
by dboeger1
Fri May 22, 2020 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Stocks Funds too exposed to China
Replies: 27
Views: 2321

Re: Emerging Market Stocks Funds too exposed to China

OP, I'm curious, why do you think EM funds are too exposed to China? It is the world's 2nd-largest economy. I realize there are all kinds of issues and risks with China's market, such as lack of exposure to much of China's growth, lack of transparency, ties to state-owned enterprises, etc. But even...
by dboeger1
Fri May 22, 2020 7:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Has anyone ever used their Emergency Fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 7515

Re: Has anyone ever used their Emergency Fund?

Earlier this year, I was hit with an unexpectedly large tax bill when filing for 2019. My wife and I had both taken new jobs recently which increased our incomes substantially, so I was not totally confident on where our withholding would leave us. The funny thing is my emergency fund had gotten lar...
by dboeger1
Wed May 20, 2020 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Stocks Funds too exposed to China
Replies: 27
Views: 2321

Re: Emerging Market Stocks Funds too exposed to China

OP, I'm curious, why do you think EM funds are too exposed to China? It is the world's 2nd-largest economy. I realize there are all kinds of issues and risks with China's market, such as lack of exposure to much of China's growth, lack of transparency, ties to state-owned enterprises, etc. But even ...
by dboeger1
Tue May 12, 2020 6:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how much to charge for two large dogs at rental
Replies: 41
Views: 2612

Re: how much to charge for two large dogs at rental

It seems I'm in the minority on this one, perhaps because I'm not a landlord, but I just don't believe in charging extra fees for pets. At most, I think an additional refundable deposit from which you can deduct damages is appropriate. Having lived with both dogs and humans, I think I can honestly s...
by dboeger1
Sun May 10, 2020 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Password vault or generator?
Replies: 109
Views: 6676

Re: Password vault or generator?

....anyone have a better plan? Nope. I just started using a password manager (Bitwarden) a few weeks ago after being too lazy to do it for years, and it took me like a whole week, several hours per day, to update all of my accounts. It was totally worth it. I had never gotten a class action settlem...
by dboeger1
Wed May 06, 2020 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do investors care when the market goes down?
Replies: 47
Views: 1866

Re: Why do investors care when the market goes down?

I'm 100% VTWAX, which I know isn't the all-US crowd's favorite, but it does let me sleep like a baby knowing that I am not making active bets on individual country risk. I'm in the US, and our economy could crash due to hyper-inflation tomorrow and, while it would likely have significant ripple effe...
by dboeger1
Wed May 06, 2020 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All my friends are outperforming index funds
Replies: 122
Views: 11468

Re: All my friends are outperforming index funds

Have they accounted for all of their costs? For example, a lot of active traders either lock in gains by selling winners early, thereby incurring short-term gains fully taxable at one's marginal income tax rate, or they hold on to winners for over a year, taking on outsized idiosyncratic company ris...
by dboeger1
Wed May 06, 2020 2:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16319

Re: American exceptionalism

Why stop at American exceptionalism. Why not look at Californian exceptionalism (and Silicon valley exceptionalism). If California based companies do much better than US ex California then should we only invest in California based companies. I will continue to invest in Intt. This is a great point,...
by dboeger1
Tue May 05, 2020 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why ally bank
Replies: 98
Views: 15320

Re: Why ally bank

One thing I think a lot of people forget is that Ally was somewhat of a pioneer in online-only banking. I have no idea if they were first, but they were by far the most popular in an earlier wave which consisted of many weaker banks which either came and went or were known for competing strictly on ...
by dboeger1
Tue May 05, 2020 1:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When to put 5k into the market
Replies: 27
Views: 2013

Re: When to put 5k into the market

My investment time horizon is 40 years. I do anticipate the market going lower at some point in the next few months and if I elaborated this post would be shut down due to policy talk etc. So if I believe that things will get worse before it gets better shouldn’t I have some cash on the sidelines a...
by dboeger1
Tue May 05, 2020 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: strong value/ small value tilt and the concern of extensive small company bankruptcies/ tough times for large value
Replies: 9
Views: 760

Re: strong value/ small value tilt and the concern of extensive small company bankruptcies/ tough times for large value

Remember that such factor tilts are expected to generate higher returns over the long run precisely because of their higher risk premiums. You can't have it both ways. If all you're going to do is sell as soon as your factor tilt suffers, that's no different than someone allocating too much of their...
by dboeger1
Mon May 04, 2020 4:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where do you back up your important data?
Replies: 102
Views: 5361

Re: Where do you back up your important data?

First, I think you should examine what it is you're trying to accomplish and whether or not it's necessary or worthwhile. So much sensitive personal data now is tied to online service accounts, and realistically, whatever you're doing to protect the data, they probably are too. For example, your ban...
by dboeger1
Fri May 01, 2020 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Starting life over from scratch at 33
Replies: 32
Views: 6310

Re: Starting life over from scratch at 33

2. Little book of common sense investing 2017 edition - Jack Bogle There's a 2017 edition? I first read it in 2014 or so. Glad to see that book is still getting love. I just recently listened to it in audiobook form while the market was crashing and it helped me stay calm and keep a logical perspec...
by dboeger1
Fri May 01, 2020 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 40% drop could hit by next year , FACT or FICTION?
Replies: 33
Views: 2851

Re: A 40% drop could hit by next year , FACT or FICTION?

Stinky wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 2:17 pm
This headline could be written in 2021. Or 2022. Or 2023. Or any year with four digits.

You get the picture.
So the year 10000 will finally be different? :D
by dboeger1
Fri May 01, 2020 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it safe to store financial statements in the cloud?
Replies: 48
Views: 3479

Re: Is it safe to store financial statements in the cloud?

Reputable cloud storage providers should be about as secure as most people can reasonably get. They're kind of the digital equivalent of a properly installed quality safe. No safe is impervious to all threats, but there's only so much you can do. However, because there are so many digital threats ou...
by dboeger1
Fri May 01, 2020 3:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mother has only $85K to sustain her
Replies: 81
Views: 8311

Re: Mother has only $85K to sustain her

3) She humbles herself to her new reality and moves in with a family member to share expenses and make that money last as long as possible until she needs it for end of life care. The beautiful thing about this option is that it can be done on a temporary basis and would have all kinds of additiona...
by dboeger1
Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are gamblers using the market now that casinos are closed?
Replies: 46
Views: 3083

Re: Are gamblers using the market now that casinos are closed?

Suddenly every Millenial guy I know thinks they are JR Ewing buying OIL. I’m sure it will work out fine. I knew a guy at my old job who about 5 years ago said he was going all in on USO because oil was obviously going to go up from there. We're both millennial guys as you put it, so at least I'm pr...
by dboeger1
Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you explain no COVID19 Stimulus Payment?
Replies: 89
Views: 7426

Re: How do you explain no COVID19 Stimulus Payment?

To many of the people calling this situation silly or contrived and saying that one's income can be easily guessed, you might want to check if that viewpoint has anything to do with living in a socioeconomic bubble. I know that phrase tends to come off as derogatory, but that's not my intention at a...
by dboeger1
Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this true, "You should never pay a premium for a good stock."
Replies: 23
Views: 1314

Re: Is this true, "You should never pay a premium for a good stock."

(If you're a party-line Boglehead, then you assume everything is fairly priced and it is irrelevant when you buy.) and that's the second problem with the bogglehead philosophy - sure, stocks are always priced correctly, because the market sets the price by definition. However, they may not always b...
by dboeger1
Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"
Replies: 536
Views: 35859

Re: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"

This article fits in nicely with this argument. https://www.mrfreeat33.com/theres-no-refund-on-dividends/ "What effectively happened here is that I was forced to give a “refund” of that capital gain on my investments. I had the capital gain – capital gain that took years to store up. Then it was qu...
by dboeger1
Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?
Replies: 124
Views: 11207

Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Think of it this way: the only time horizon that matters is from now to when you need the money. Everyone who says, "Oh, I regret having (not) bought/sold before/during/after this/that/some other event/window. But what people fail to realize is the market acts on so many different wavelengths all ju...
by dboeger1
Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Zero Funds = Best 3 Fund Portfolio
Replies: 44
Views: 4320

Re: Fidelity Zero Funds = Best 3 Fund Portfolio

It seems like the common recommendation for the 3 fund portfolio consist of total market, total international, and total bond. If keeping expenses down is one of the foundational ideas behind boglehead philosophy and indexing... Wouldn’t the best 3 fund portfolio be made up of Fidelity® ZERO Total ...
by dboeger1
Wed Apr 22, 2020 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How are the "100% Stocks" people doing?
Replies: 137
Views: 11753

Re: How are the "100% Stocks" people doing?

100% VTWAX before and after, and doing quite alright. The biggest lesson I got out of all of this was not to treat my emergency fund like dry powder for timing the market. I didn't use it all, but I overbought just a little when the market was down about 7%-10% (what a buying opportunity, right?!), ...
by dboeger1
Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Indexing fail?
Replies: 33
Views: 3188

Re: Indexing fail?

‘Index except for everything that has recently performed poorly’ is a pretty profoundly bad way to invest. Not performed poorly, but expected to totally collapse and disappear. Devil's advocate. The beauty of companies going bankrupt is that by the time it is known they're disappearing, they've usu...
by dboeger1
Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help creating the perfect w-4 ?
Replies: 17
Views: 1210

Re: Help creating the perfect w-4 ?

I realize you're asking how, not should, and unfortunately I really don't know enough to answer, but I thought I'd offer my recent experience for whatever that's worth. My wife and I both started new jobs fairly recently, and hers especially was a significant bump in pay. I started near the end of 2...
by dboeger1
Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First Time Home Purchase
Replies: 13
Views: 732

Re: First Time Home Purchase

While I'm also considering a first time home purchase (not right this moment, but possibly if we see a wave of foreclosures due to the current crisis), I would absolutely not consider selling stocks to buy a home a shift in investment allocation. Even with saving rent and the ability to rent out a h...
by dboeger1
Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Florida HOA complaining of Weeds in Lawn
Replies: 101
Views: 8791

Re: Florida HOA complaining of Weeds in Lawn

OK thanks, just thought it petty they would bring it up at a time like this. You can stop your contractual duties to keep op on your house during these times? Doesn't seem to make sense. Some people can't pay their rent or mortgage so some landlords and banks are delaying payment requirements. Even...
by dboeger1
Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: GoFundMe ... tipping!?
Replies: 33
Views: 5186

Re: GoFundMe ... tipping!?

I think people just need to get used to the idea that being for profit and soliciting tips/donations are not mutually exclusive. Yes, it's a bit unorthodox, but this is hardly the only example in the modern economy. Many social media content creators rely on tips, and in fact, facilitating them with...
by dboeger1
Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do investors say stock picking is risky?
Replies: 79
Views: 4394

Re: Why do investors say stock picking is risky?

Maybe computer people here and others can remember when DEC was the wave of the future... (Digital Eqpt. Corp.; minicomputers and client-server would run everything; VAX system expertise and the associated proprietary operating system was a big in-demand skill. Boston was the silicon valley of the ...
by dboeger1
Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: REIT *funds* not akin to owning Investment Property
Replies: 53
Views: 3459

Re: REIT *funds* not akin to owning Investment Property

Is the Mall of America really the same asset class as single family homes? Not really. While you are correct that they're not 100% the same, I think they at least have more in common with each other than they do with a company like Google. They both primarily derive their earning potential from the...
by dboeger1
Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?
Replies: 92
Views: 6311

Re: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?

For me personally, I was impressed by compounding pretty early on for a couple of reasons. First was that I saved up my first $50k or so in a traditional bank's savings account yielding practically nonexistent interest. At that time, I decided I had worked hard enough and was spending enough time co...
by dboeger1
Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We are in a full-blown Depression
Replies: 95
Views: 8173

Re: We are in a full-blown Depression

Even with the astronomic unemployment, expected GDP contraction, and no immediate plans for states and the federal government to return back to normal employment level? This came out of no where and could disappear just as rapidly. We could be humming along, like we were, in 6 weeks . It might take...
by dboeger1
Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is saving $19k/yr worth having roommates? (California Bay Area)
Replies: 71
Views: 5684

Re: How much rent can I afford (California Bay Area)

I know it's not everyone's cup of tea, but I highly recommend at least looking into a smaller studio apartment if you do decide to live alone. Obviously, if you have a ton of stuff, it might not work, but I lived in a studio apartment for years, and even with my wife for over a year after she immig...
by dboeger1
Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What will you do first, once COVID pandemic is over?
Replies: 271
Views: 17604

Re: What will you do first, once COVID pandemic is over?

I haven't read all the comments, but man oh man are people exaggerating how long this will last. Saying things like, "not when but if" and "things will never go back to normal." Looks like you expect some magic sign from officials (I guess the same ones who were telling us that it’s just a flu) tha...
by dboeger1
Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is saving $19k/yr worth having roommates? (California Bay Area)
Replies: 71
Views: 5684

Re: How much rent can I afford (California Bay Area)

I’m currently renting a 3bed/3bath townhouse; a total of four people live in the townhouse. I have a private bedroom and private bathroom. A couple occupies the second bedroom; a fourth person occupies the third bedroom. The kitchen and living room are shared. I’m paying $1200 per month in rent ; t...
by dboeger1
Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What will you do first, once COVID pandemic is over?
Replies: 271
Views: 17604

Re: What will you do first, once COVID pandemic is over?

I haven't read all the comments, but man oh man are people exaggerating how long this will last . Saying things like, "not when but if" and "things will never go back to normal." So what, humans are just going to go extinct from this? This isn't even anywhere near the most deadly virus humanity has...
by dboeger1
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I do a Roth IRA conversion?
Replies: 8
Views: 750

Re: Should I do a Roth IRA conversion?

Hmm no idea if I'll be in another state unfortunately. I'm on a visa, and im not even sure if ill be in the country if [I don't get - moderator prudent] a Greencard. Lol This particular statement argues strongly in favor of moving the Rollover IRA into the 401k, since a conversion to Roth IRA would...
by dboeger1
Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How good is the "market" at pricing itself?
Replies: 19
Views: 981

Re: How good is the "market" at pricing itself?

You might be interested in a published study from several years ago that closely duplicates your analysis (link below). The study uses the dividend discount model to approximate the "fundamental value" of the market — but the end results and conclusions were much the same as yours. They found the m...