Search found 4636 matches

by aristotelian
Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rollover Timing Risk
Replies: 6
Views: 252

Re: Rollover Timing Risk

Can you do a couple of partial rollovers?
by aristotelian
Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 8-month windfall check-in
Replies: 17
Views: 2838

Re: 8-month windfall check-in

Absolutely, there is never a bad time to realize losses. Great, so just to be sure I'm getting this right: I should sell all of the VFIFX in my taxable account and move the proceeds into a combination VTSAX and VTIAX. Then, I should sell the VFIFX in the IRAs and move the proceeds into VBTLX. If I ...
by aristotelian
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My biggest mistake - market timing
Replies: 62
Views: 8891

Re: My biggest mistake - market timing

OP, what if you invest accounts in your name 100% stocks and accounts in his name 100% cash and short term bond, what would your allocation be?
by aristotelian
Mon Oct 15, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 8-month windfall check-in
Replies: 17
Views: 2838

Re: 8-month windfall check-in

ticktocker wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 1:40 pm
Hey - just following up on this. With the downswing in the market, I'm now at a loss of around $5500 on the 20,000 VFIFX shares. Would now be a good time to sell and reallocate? Thanks.
Absolutely, there is never a bad time to realize losses.
by aristotelian
Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better to invest in taxable and not deferred?
Replies: 29
Views: 2723

Re: Better to invest in taxable and not deferred?

You would only not invest in 401k/deferred if you expected that deferred tax would be higher than your current tax. For the vast majority of people at the peak of their earning power, their retirement tax rate will be lower. Remember that we are talking about taxable income, not spending. Once you a...
by aristotelian
Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 28
Views: 4237

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

Too bad he didn't write this article a couple of weeks ago. Could have saved us all a lot of money.
by aristotelian
Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab-specific TLH question - SCHF/SCHE
Replies: 11
Views: 410

Re: Schwab-specific TLH question - SCHF/SCHE

Edit: So Schwab gave me some free trades. My current plan is to TLH fully into VWO and VEA from SCHE and SCHF, respectively. I would then subsequently need to determine how to accumulate moving forward as you point out. If the ex-US markets are still down I could just sell out and move back to the ...
by aristotelian
Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab-specific TLH question - SCHF/SCHE
Replies: 11
Views: 410

Re: Schwab-specific TLH question - SCHF/SCHE

Yes, Vanguard ETF's all work as they follow different indices. I believe you should be on solid ground with comparable iShares and SPDR ETF's as well. The problem with Schwab is that you will have to pay trading fees to harvest into and out of non-Schwab funds. I did chat with a Schwab rep and menti...
by aristotelian
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with inheritance
Replies: 17
Views: 2085

Re: What to do with inheritance

I like the idea of paying off your mortgage. Use the cash flow to max your retirement accounts. Any cash left from the mortgage payoff invest in brokerage account. Revisit your overall allocation. Now you have less need to take risk, but greater ability to do so. You could play it either way.
by aristotelian
Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: After Tax 401k Contri's vs Trad 401k vs Roth 401k
Replies: 23
Views: 859

Re: After Tax 401k Contri's vs Trad 401k vs Roth 401k

OP, you might also do a search for "megabackdoor Roth".
by aristotelian
Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: To Roth IRA or Not
Replies: 13
Views: 973

Re: To ROTH IRA or Not

I would definitely do 457 ahead of Roth as long as it's a good plan with good options. Roth IRA with pretax employer account is generally a good combination. If you stop at 55, would you have an option to delay the pension or take a lump sum? If so, that would definitely argue for saving pretax as m...
by aristotelian
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?
Replies: 84
Views: 4221

Re: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?

The idea is that it is better to buy 10 shares for $900 than it is to pay $1000. If your expectation is that the market will eventually go to $200, it would be better to have a correction at the beginning of your accumulation than when the market is at $199.
by aristotelian
Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pls help us design our family life!!!
Replies: 40
Views: 4334

Re: Pls help us design our family life!!!

You need to cut your expenses, or keep working.
by aristotelian
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax loss harvest international small cap with what?
Replies: 11
Views: 399

Re: Tax loss harvest international small cap with what?

SCHC. Low expense ratio. You would be losing emerging small caps and it contains 2000 stocks vs 3000.
by aristotelian
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Both Stocks and Bonds Fall, Where Does the Money Go?
Replies: 12
Views: 1766

Re: When Both Stocks and Bonds Fall, Where Does the Money Go?

I suppose cash, as people wait for the dust to settle. The bots must have decision rule to avoid anything until the VIX gets back to a normal number.
by aristotelian
Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any natural hedges to stocks?
Replies: 17
Views: 1650

Re: Any natural hedges to stocks?

Bonds are still probably your best bet. If we enter a true bear market, interest rates will go back to zero and bonds will go up. Sometimes they correlate but overall the correlation is zero. You can also buy individual bonds if you don't like seeing the price drop when rates rise.
by aristotelian
Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7364
Views: 1546508

Re: Stocks tumbling?

Anyone know what could potentially be causing this drop? There does not appear to be any significant recent events that could cause investors to be concerned. Bond yields going up. Also, the stock prices went up for a long, long time in absence of any positive recent events to justify those moves. ...
by aristotelian
Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?
Replies: 134
Views: 10086

Re: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?

Ged wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:10 am
The thing that pushed me to delaying benefits was that I could use some additional space in a lower tax bracket for ROTH conversions, thereby reducing future RMDs.
+1. The break-even on SS dollars is only one factor if claiming early loses more of your investment portfolio to tax.
by aristotelian
Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pre-Tax TIAA Traditional vs taxable VWITX
Replies: 5
Views: 449

Re: Pre-Tax TIAA Traditional vs taxable VWITX

Too complex to say without more information. The biggest consideration is whether you have a lot of your assets in the 401k subject to ordinary income tax on distributions. If your 401k is getting to big, you will want to put most of your fixed income there so as to have growth occur in Roth and tax...
by aristotelian
Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: FIRE within 5 years with high income?
Replies: 16
Views: 4682

Re: FIRE within 5 years with high income?

I agree on changing the TDF to a bond index, as this will be my tax efficient bond holding. Here's the one thing I'm curious about...that scares me. I looked at the TDF I have all my 401k in: https://individuals.voya.com/product/mutual-fund/profile/voya-target-retirement-2050-fund It says: "Current...
by aristotelian
Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dayton, Ohio -- Worth Visiting?
Replies: 39
Views: 2941

Re: Dayton, Ohio -- Worth Visiting?

If you are into more urban experiences (restaurants etc) Columbus is definitely the better bet. Safety is not a problem in any of the tourist areas. If you are coming primarily for the Air Force Museum, it is probably better to stay in one of the chain hotels in that area rather than the limited opt...
by aristotelian
Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Car: No Collision/Comprehensive?
Replies: 52
Views: 4176

Re: New Car: No Collision/Comprehensive?

Sure, actuarily speaking, the insurance company is coming out ahead. Still,I just don't want to be in a position of spending $30-$40K twice on a car, even if I could afford to do so. The same could be said for probably 99% of health emergencies but I still get health insurance. The peace of mind of ...
by aristotelian
Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Evaluate net worth - FIRE really that close?
Replies: 56
Views: 7623

Re: Evaluate net worth - FIRE really that close?

Ron Scott wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:43 am
We do not get a lot of do-overs in retirement, so better safe than sorry...
We also don't get do-overs on life. I guess the question is what you hope to accomplish in life and what you regard as failure.
by aristotelian
Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we safely retire early?
Replies: 18
Views: 3274

Re: Can we safely retire early?

You are solidly in "one more year" territory, where you could retire early and be fine, but it would probably be safer to wait. I am getting a budget of $56K @ 3.5% withdrawal rate. If I understand correctly, you need to cover $70K until claiming SS. Seems like you are pushing it a bit. Then again, ...
by aristotelian
Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
Replies: 185
Views: 10036

Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

investor997 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:01 pm

No kids
No debt


So... am I crazy?
You can do whatever you damn please.
by aristotelian
Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in total bond funds now?
Replies: 8
Views: 1747

Re: Investing in total bond funds now?

Yields are higher than they have been in 6-7 years. Should be a fine time to buy.

They could go higher still, but then again, stocks could crash and you will be very glad you have some of your portfolio in bonds.
by aristotelian
Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: roof leak thread
Replies: 7
Views: 851

Re: roof leak thread

Could be coming in from windows depending on where the wet spots are.
by aristotelian
Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 1099 employee for the first time. Help?
Replies: 10
Views: 466

Re: 1099 employee for the first time. Help?

2. Yes, it is easier to deduct business expenses now that she is self employed. Take a look at Schedule C or do a mock one using Turbotax or similar software. 3. Yes, she will probably want to do a Solo 401k (note, this is technically an employer plan, not an IRA. She can do a separate IRA in additi...
by aristotelian
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Evaluate net worth - FIRE really that close?
Replies: 56
Views: 7623

Re: Evaluate net worth - FIRE really that close?

I don't mind you guys vaporizing 400k of my net worth but please don't also cut 2 years off my life! I'll be 65 and broke by the time you guys are done with me. Mortgage has about 300k to go. Company stock is restricted and I liquidate immediately upon availability. We don't want that, but we want ...
by aristotelian
Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Evaluate net worth - FIRE really that close?
Replies: 56
Views: 7623

Re: Evaluate net worth - FIRE really that close?

How much is left on your mortgage? If you have $1M to go, then you are basically at zero. If it is 99% paid off, you are much closer. You have a lot of your portfolio in company stock. What happens there is very unpredictable. Can you liquidate any of it? I would not count on it, or value it very, v...
by aristotelian
Sun Oct 07, 2018 9:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can you give "spousal" health insurance to a non-spouse?
Replies: 31
Views: 1534

Re: Can you give "spousal" health insurance to a non-spouse?

AlphaLess wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 7:48 pm
Is the friend a domestic partner?
+1. I don't get the discrimination remark unless the person is in a relationship of some kind. In that case, they could be eligible. Our employer added domestic partners a few years ago.
by aristotelian
Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Has anyone used software to write a Will?
Replies: 15
Views: 1267

Re: Has anyone used software to write a Will?

Better than having no will.
by aristotelian
Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell vwiux and buy 1 yr tbills? [Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt]
Replies: 8
Views: 497

Re: Sell vwiux and buy 1 yr tbills?

Sounds like you would be buying high and selling low. The yield is way up from when you bought. I would just hold. Maybe harvest the losses and reinvest in a fund with the same duration.
by aristotelian
Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to merge three brokerage accounts at Vanguard?
Replies: 11
Views: 1439

Re: How to merge three brokerage accounts at Vanguard?

I called them. I was told that all I need to do is sell in one account and purchase in another. This doesn't make sense to me. A "sell" is a sell and it doesn't move the dollar value anywhere. It just stays in the settlement fund in the original account. Could you explain this again? Or maybe you a...
by aristotelian
Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: can i start a private investment firm?
Replies: 70
Views: 5067

Re: can i start a private investment firm?

How about just opening a joint account?
by aristotelian
Fri Oct 05, 2018 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flattening yield curve
Replies: 55
Views: 4800

Re: Flattening yield curve

stlutz wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 10:25 pm
This article explains pretty succinctly how an inverted yield curve causes a recession:

https://www.financialsamurai.com/unders ... predictor/
The article says "predicts", not causes.
by aristotelian
Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: seeking advice: bond funds vs CDs/Treasuries
Replies: 3
Views: 711

Re: seeking advice: bond funds vs CDs/Treasuries

I think CDs are better because they usually have a better yield than equivalent duration treasuries particularly in tax advantaged account. You can build a ladder by putting 4/5ths in a 1 year cd and buying a 5 year with the other 1/5. Do that for 5 years. That minimizes interest risk. They don’t g...
by aristotelian
Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation between the FIRE movement and one of the greatest bull markets
Replies: 157
Views: 12927

Re: Correlation between the FIRE movement and one of the greatest bull markets

My two cents: in previous generations, a big bull market would mean more money to spend, not more money to save and invest. What seems to be new is the frugality, anti-materialism, and renewed focus on fulfillment rather than consumption. Of course, you will see more people nearing or approaching th...
by aristotelian
Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Number of mutual funds offered in JP Morgan Chase "You Invest"
Replies: 10
Views: 775

Re: Number of mutual funds offered in JP Morgan Chase "You Invest"

It seems that JP Morgan Chase "You Invest" offers "all" mutual fund trading without any commission. Does anyone know as how many mutual funds from different fund families do they offer? I know that Vanguard Brokerage offers over 9000 mutual funds from different fund families. However, they charge $...
by aristotelian
Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: google docs and google finance
Replies: 8
Views: 1039

Re: google docs and google finance

I have the same issue. It works with every fund and ETF except for Vanguard Prime Money Market.
by aristotelian
Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Case for buying individual Stocks as 10% of portfolio
Replies: 43
Views: 3164

Re: Case for buying individual Stocks as 10% of portfolio

It's not a terrible idea. I would set the number at more like 30 (same as the Dow). To me the primary advantage would not be to beat the market but to be able to harvest losses from losers. The primary disadvantages would be behavioral risk and complexity. Also, if you need to sell winners to mainta...
by aristotelian
Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income
Replies: 56
Views: 8584

Re: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income

The 7.8M is approximately 7.2M in equity/cash equivalent, 430K in a house that would be sold and Gold/Misc items of another 100K or so. Why would 90/10 be aggressive? If I was going to live just off dividends, why even would I use bonds? Even if the market dropped by 50% for a few years, I could ju...
by aristotelian
Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Plan For Depleting Your Investments If No Heirs?
Replies: 39
Views: 4649

Re: Plan For Depeting Your Investments If No Heirs?

Use VPW.

You should pick a charity or heir in any case because no matter what method you use, there is a chance you might die tomorrow.
by aristotelian
Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: After 6 months on BH, this is where I'm at...
Replies: 28
Views: 3247

Re: After 6 months on BH, this is where I'm at...

When did you buy HMNY? Hope you were buying the dip!
by aristotelian
Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Vanguard ETF Diversifiers, Ranked
Replies: 46
Views: 4585

Re: Best Vanguard ETF Diversifiers, Ranked

I define "diversification" as the process of spreading a portfolio's risk across correlated sources. There are a number of modern measures of diversification, but the two I refer to the most are the diversification ratio and Shannon entropy (aka "effective number of bets"). There are other measures...
by aristotelian
Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Vanguard ETF Diversifiers, Ranked
Replies: 46
Views: 4585

Re: Best Vanguard ETF Diversifiers, Ranked

Pet peeve: you mean non-correlation, not diversification. I am surprised you didn't look at any Treasury Bond funds. I believe they are least correlated. No, when I say diversification that’s what I mean. What is your definition of diversification? I don't see how picking specific components of tot...
by aristotelian
Tue Oct 02, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Vanguard ETF Diversifiers, Ranked
Replies: 46
Views: 4585

Re: Best Vanguard ETF Diversifiers, Ranked

Pet peeve: you mean non-correlation, not diversification.

I am surprised you didn't look at any Treasury Bond funds. I believe they are least correlated.
by aristotelian
Tue Oct 02, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Trying to retire early, what should I do?
Replies: 19
Views: 1471

Re: Trying to retire early, what should I do?

You need to save more. Depending on above average returns is not a good plan, IMO. Keep your current standard of living and apply future raises to savings. If you get lucky with good returns, then you can retire earlier.
by aristotelian
Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is an emergency fund just about market timing?
Replies: 103
Views: 5521

Re: Is an emergency fund just about market timing?

There may be tax reasons to have an allocation of cash on hand to avoid realizing losses or gains any time you have a big expense.