Search found 3397 matches

by aristotelian
Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?
Replies: 37
Views: 1536

Re: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?

I don't. Efficient markets is a theory that explains a lot but obviously a lot of economic behavior is irrational. If markets were perfectly efficient, there would be no bubbles, no panics, just rational responses to events. It's also clearly being manipulated by insiders who control disproportiona...
by aristotelian
Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?
Replies: 37
Views: 1536

Re: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?

I don't. Efficient markets is a theory that explains a lot but obviously a lot of economic behavior is irrational. If markets were perfectly efficient, there would be no bubbles, no panics, just rational responses to events. It's also clearly being manipulated by insiders who control disproportionat...
by aristotelian
Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Short Commute or Nicer House?
Replies: 127
Views: 5378

Re: Short Commute or Nicer House?

Cost of living is approximately the same?

I would go with #1 and it's not close. Shorter commute, more ammenities. Unless you really hate city life, I would take it, no question.
by aristotelian
Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lost Job. Retirement/Portfolio Advice
Replies: 46
Views: 4076

Re: Lost Job. Retirement/Portfolio Advice

It is interesting that you have a colleague that accumulated 10 millions dollars. This is shocking in higher ed, maybe he/she is a sport coach. In any case, for your question regarding TIAA-CREF funds. My opinion is that even R2 is not worth it unless you plan to annuitize it. I like TIAA Tradition...
by aristotelian
Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard US Investment Options Minus Top 10?
Replies: 20
Views: 1227

Re: Vanguard US Investment Options Minus Top 10?

You could buy either an Equal Weight S&P index (which would include those stocks but at a much lower weight) or you can buy an ex-tech S&P ETF. I don't think Vanguard offers these but you could buy them using Vanguard platforms.
by aristotelian
Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help Me Spend $900.00 Unused FSA Dollars
Replies: 37
Views: 2097

Re: Help Me Spend $900.00 Unused FSA Dollars

My employer allows us to carry over $500. Have you asked about that possibility?

Maybe go get a bunch of massages?

Checkup with bloodwork
by aristotelian
Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active Core Bond Beats Total Index in 2017
Replies: 11
Views: 1798

Re: Active Core Bond Beats Total Index in 2017

Based on those numbers, it comes down to whether you like GNMAs vs Treasuries. Larry Swedroe does not but reasonable minds will differ. Are you looking for return or stability? Personally I seek stability from bonds and prefer to overweight Treasuries rather than underweight. I would rather be 72/28...
by aristotelian
Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lost Job. Retirement/Portfolio Advice
Replies: 46
Views: 4076

Re: Lost Job. Retirement/Portfolio Advice

Interesting portfolio there. The TIAA is like play money for you. Why so focused on it? I would be more concerned about the half of your portfolio sitting in cash losing money to inflation. What is your overall strategy? Withdrawal rate? Allocation? I have a TIAA account myself. I am leaning toward ...
by aristotelian
Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with setting up Inherited IRA and then transferring
Replies: 8
Views: 472

Re: Help with setting up Inherited IRA and then transferring

Thanks for the quick reply. The annuity has multiple beneficiaries. One of beneficiaries already sent paperwork in to lump sum payout with their share. Do you think BL can and will go ahead and title just my wife's portion of the current annuity which is titled in Mother inlaw's name? Yes, each ben...
by aristotelian
Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with setting up Inherited IRA and then transferring
Replies: 8
Views: 472

Re: Help with setting up Inherited IRA and then transferring

We did this with a TransAmerica Annuity. First step is to simply retitle it. You can't do anything until it's in your name. It will have to spend at least a few minute (probably longer) in the current Annuity but retitled as an Inherited IRA in your name. You will want to ask the insurance company i...
by aristotelian
Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why even have Bonds in a 401k?
Replies: 18
Views: 2066

Re: Why even have Bonds in a 401k?

Your premise about penalties for early withdrawals is incorrect. You can roll it to Traditional IRA and then convert the Traditional IRA to Roth. Do a search for "Roth conversion ladder" and you will see. I am shifting toward bonds in taxable for the opposite reason. I anticipate early retirement an...
by aristotelian
Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How will or might nonprofits be affected by tax law changes?
Replies: 35
Views: 1610

Re: How will or might nonprofits be affected by tax law changes?

People don't give "for" the deduction but thededuction allows them to give more at the same cost. I agree with above, it's the folks who are on the border of itemizing that will be affected most.
by aristotelian
Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Deceased mother's Financial Advisor wants $500+ to convert to bene IRA
Replies: 31
Views: 2401

Re: Deceased mother's Financial Advisor wants $500+ to convert to bene IRA

Initiate the transfer through Vanguard. You may be able to do this without any fees. I did this with an inherited IRA controlled by a FA. If there's a $500 transfer fee, that is steep but if he is a fee only advisor that may be the priceof (not) doing business. In my case they were pulling in $30k a...
by aristotelian
Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA bank selection
Replies: 10
Views: 562

Re: HSA bank selection

Very happy with Lively as well.
by aristotelian
Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond investing for a very long retirement?
Replies: 35
Views: 2362

Re: Bond investing for a very long retirement?

Based on historical data the maximum withdrawal rate at "100%" success is not 100% stocks. 50/50 is probably closer to the optimum than 100/0 is. What is maximized at 100% stocks is the range of wealth left at the end of the retirement period, but that is a different objective. That is not true for...
by aristotelian
Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond investing for a very long retirement?
Replies: 35
Views: 2362

Re: Bond investing for a very long retirement?

aristoltelian: my expense multiplier is actually 75x current annual expenses. Again I am hesitant to convert that hard earned ROTH account from 100% stocks to bonds given how much I paid for it in income taxes over the years. Maybe that is purely psychological but.... For me the hangup really is th...
by aristotelian
Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond investing for a very long retirement?
Replies: 35
Views: 2362

Re: Bond investing for a very long retirement?

I think if you are going to have a 60-year retirement, the best strategy is lower your SWR. Assume 3% not 4%. No one can predict future markets. The only thing that you can control is your spending. I wouldn't want ALL my risk in equities when I've got no income. And healthcare costs could be a HUG...
by aristotelian
Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Let's hear (or see) your budget tools
Replies: 12
Views: 1071

Re: Let's hear (or see) your budget tools

We do track our spending in certain categories, but we don't budget in the sense of setting hard limits. For me it just wasn't useful because we would go over, but the expense was a necessary expense, so we would have to adjust the budget. It could also have the perverse effect of "allowing" us to s...
by aristotelian
Wed Jan 17, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How will or might nonprofits be affected by tax law changes?
Replies: 35
Views: 1610

Re: How will or might nonprofits be affected by tax law changes?

Yes, people are going to have less incentive to give in 2018 now that they are already getting the standard deduction up to $24K for couples. People who wanted to get the extra deduction made larger year end contributions in 2017. That is probably not going to continue, and in fact I would anticipat...
by aristotelian
Wed Jan 17, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth 401(k) vs Traditional 401(k) contributions in 2018
Replies: 8
Views: 533

Re: Roth 401(k) vs Traditional 401(k) contributions in 2018

What will be your tax rate in retirement? If you are going to be in the same bracket in retirement, then it makes sense to expand your Roth space as much as possible. If you retire early with low expenses, you may be able to pull your money and convert to Roth at as low as 0% tax. In that case, stic...
by aristotelian
Wed Jan 17, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it reasonable to try to time the I-Bond market?
Replies: 12
Views: 1024

Re: Is it reasonable to try to time the I-Bond market?

You might get the better rate by timing it, but then you have money out of market (or in something that might lose money) while you are waiting. Over the long haul, do you really care how much your $10k earned during the first 3 months or 6 months? I do think it's worth it to wait if the fixed rate ...
by aristotelian
Wed Jan 17, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Book Suggestions
Replies: 14
Views: 923

Re: Book Suggestions

Plato, Republic
Seneca, Moral Letters to Lucilius
Rousseau, Discourse on the Arts and Sciences and Discourse on the Origin of Inequality
by aristotelian
Wed Jan 17, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is a Stable Value fund just a Variable Annuity?
Replies: 25
Views: 1513

Re: Is a Stable Value fund just a Variable Annuity?

Stable value doesn't guarantee stable yield, does it?
by aristotelian
Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets equities went sideways for 50 years 1920-70
Replies: 24
Views: 2035

Re: Emerging Markets equities went sideways for 50 years 1920-70

Back in the early 1900s, they weren't "emerging", they were just "poor".
by aristotelian
Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: health equity HSA
Replies: 8
Views: 1263

Re: health equity HSA

What are you asking? You either have to pay the fees or transfer the funds to another company with a cost structure that works for you. Lively appears to be the cheapest out there, $30 annually with TD Ameritrade brokerage platform.
by aristotelian
Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique
Replies: 140
Views: 11032

Re: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique

retire in Dallas (really??? I live just south of Dallas now; it's awful), what will I do all day I always find it semi-amusing when people recommend moving to a low-cost area instead of answering the questions being asked about a high-cost area but you have to admit that suggesting Tennessee or Tex...
by aristotelian
Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxes/Investing/Early Retirement - Mid 30 y.o.
Replies: 2
Views: 479

Re: Taxes/Investing/Early Retirement - Mid 30 y.o.

You can get more money in the Roth by making it Traditional. :D :D :)

Yes, Solo 401k would be good for the business income.
by aristotelian
Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TurboTax Prices
Replies: 153
Views: 17453

Re: TurboTax Prices

How does Freetaxusa make money? Is it just a charitable venture for humanity? I will stick with Turbotax Not sure if that is a rhetorical question but they do charge $13 for state. All you need is 1% of people to pay that fee and it could easily turn a profit since it is basically a spreadsheet wit...
by aristotelian
Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TurboTax Prices
Replies: 153
Views: 17453

Re: TurboTax Prices

Freetaxusa does schedule c and d and lives up to it's name. Only downsides are the platform is online and does not import brokerage data. I've inputted my data on TurboTax and freetaxusa and get identical numbers. I'm not sure why freetaxusa doesn't get more love from bogleheads. Manually inputting...
by aristotelian
Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for a reasonably priced, safe international destination
Replies: 105
Views: 6030

Re: Looking for a reasonably priced, safe international destination

+1 for Costa Rica. Also had a great time in Mexico (Yucutan near Cancun) although Mexico is less safe.
by aristotelian
Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Buy Bonds If You Have A Mortgage?
Replies: 187
Views: 17138

Re: Why Buy Bonds If You Have A Mortgage?

Do you remember 2008/2009 recession? Aka, the house price drop by 50% in many places. The difference of 2 years is significant in a recession. This is on top of your main portfolio. I know I can last 5 years without selling my stock in a recession. Many folks will not survive or suffer the permanen...
by aristotelian
Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Buy Bonds If You Have A Mortgage?
Replies: 187
Views: 17138

Re: Why Buy Bonds If You Have A Mortgage?

For B, you can last 3.5 years, but you have a bigger mortgage at the end. A only owes the bank $150K when he runs out of money. B still owes maybe $275K. If you lose your job in a recession, it doesn't matter to me whether you have to sell the house in 1.5 years or 3.5 years. It is true that B can ...
by aristotelian
Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: FlipPhone
Replies: 18
Views: 1477

Re: FlipPhone

I have the next best thing. A Blu R1 HD that I got for only $59 on Amazon Prime special. You can have a smartphone without spending $1K+ on a new iPhone.
by aristotelian
Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Buy Bonds If You Have A Mortgage?
Replies: 187
Views: 17138

Re: Why Buy Bonds If You Have A Mortgage?

I have a 400K house with a 300K mortgage. So, it is between A) 180K 100% stock with 120K mortgage which does not change my mortgage payment unless I recast the loan B) 300K 60/40 portfolio with the 300K mortgage. In a recession, the stock crash 50% and the bond stay flat. My annual expense is 60K p...
by aristotelian
Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: the blockchain effect
Replies: 5
Views: 677

Re: the blockchain effect

One has to wonder if there are some robo-traders out there with instant buy orders on anything having to do with blockchain. Seriously.
by aristotelian
Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Understanding the Great Recession Impact
Replies: 44
Views: 3274

Re: Understanding the Great Recession Impact

Most people at the time had most of their wealth in real estate, including their personal residence. Millions of people went underwater and then lost their job at the same time. They were truly wiped out. I was fortunate to have been a renter most of my life up to that point with wealth in equities....
by aristotelian
Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: neighborhood advice for Prague, Vienna, Budapest, and Athens
Replies: 11
Views: 625

Re: neighborhood advice for Prague, Vienna, Budapest, and Athens

Are you sure you want to stay in Athens? There are some amazing islands and villages around the country that are incredibly nice.
by aristotelian
Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More Funds More Rebalancing Opportunities?
Replies: 14
Views: 734

Re: More Funds More Rebalancing Opportunities?

The one benefit I see of more funds would be tax loss harvesting opportunities. I doubt rebalancing from one stock fund to another will have much effect.
by aristotelian
Sun Jan 14, 2018 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are there any situations where you don’t max retirement opportunities?
Replies: 16
Views: 1967

Re: Are there any situations where you don’t max retirement opportunities?

Historically we have been in the 25 or 28 percent bracket with no state income taxes. We would not buy her a new car. Probably low mileage used, maybe like a used Camry. I’d like for the car to be safe. This is all dependent on her eventually getting her license which isn’t a given at this rate. I ...
by aristotelian
Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are there any situations where you don’t max retirement opportunities?
Replies: 16
Views: 1967

Re: Are there any situations where you don’t max retirement opportunities?

What is your tax bracket? The higher your bracket, the more valuable your retirement accounts. Do you want/plan to retire early? If so, you are giving up a massive tax benefit by not contributing to the 401k because you will have a long window with low taxable income. Can you give daughter a beater ...
by aristotelian
Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Renting in NYC for a new college grad. Best practices?
Replies: 23
Views: 1889

Re: Renting in NYC for a new college grad. Best practices?

Have a lot of money saved up. You have to go through agencies, and they charge their own fee on top of security and first months rent.
by aristotelian
Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early Retirement Question
Replies: 14
Views: 2785

Re: Early Retirement Question

Roth conversion ladder would be a more flexible alternative than SEPP. However, you need to have 5 years of expenses already in Roth or taxable. Do you have any Roth IRA funds or is it all Traditional?
by aristotelian
Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: wireless dead again - router suggestions?
Replies: 35
Views: 1700

Re: wireless dead again - router suggestions?

I just use whatever AT&T gives me. When they die, I call and complain and get a new one for free.
by aristotelian
Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Solo 401(k)-Contributing ALL net income?
Replies: 11
Views: 977

Re: Solo 401(k)-Contributing ALL net income?

I don't know if it's a red flag or not in terms of increasing chance of audit, but it is allowed.
by aristotelian
Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Energy sector time to turn around?
Replies: 45
Views: 3877

Re: Energy sector time to turn around?

I was thinking of buying an energy sector ETF with a bit of play money, for what it's worth. Seems like it may have bottomed out, but you never know.

Does anyone know of an energy ETF that contains alternatives? VDE apparently only has fossil fuel stocks, as far as I can tell.
by aristotelian
Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab help - mutual fund vs ETF vs ThomasPartners Balanced Income - overwhelmed!
Replies: 18
Views: 870

Re: Schwab help - mutual fund vs ETF vs ThomasPartners Balanced Income - overwhelmed!

Schwab definitely has better selection in the ETF space. The big funds such as SCHB have enough action that you can place market orders with little risk of getting caught by a big bid/ask spread. The price you see at any point in time is what you will get within a cent or two. If it makes you nervou...
by aristotelian
Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inherited retirement
Replies: 8
Views: 1532

Re: Inherited retirement

OP, it would be good to know your tax bracket. Generally you want to take RMDs, since you can always take more later. If you are in a low tax bracket, there would be little downside to cashing out now if you can use the cash, but RMDs would ensure the money would come out at the lowest rate, then yo...
by aristotelian
Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do bonds generally go up when the stock market crashes?
Replies: 27
Views: 1503

Re: Do bonds generally go up when the stock market crashes?

a) The Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund basically stayed flat during 2008-2009. Which seemed pretty good. But it was flat, it didn't go up. b) There is a feeling, and I give some credence, to the idea that Treasuries go up a bit when the stock market crash--but if we are talking about the kind...
by aristotelian
Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting your spouse on the same page
Replies: 53
Views: 4934

Re: Getting your spouse on the same page

My wife doesn't want to be involved in research or the day to day managing of accounts, but we are on the same page more or less when it comes to goals and spending. If we are having a conflict, I try not to approach it "getting my spouse on the same page" or "convincing" etc. People don't like to b...