Search found 5679 matches

by aristotelian
Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar General
Replies: 25
Views: 1936

Re: Dollar General

Would have been a great buy 10 years ago. Right now future expectations are baked in to the current price. Sorry that isn't helpful but efficient markets are like that.
by aristotelian
Mon Jun 24, 2019 2:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why does AA matter as long as I stick to it?
Replies: 23
Views: 1810

Re: Why does AA matter as long as I stick to it?

Your AA affects your exposure to sequence of returns risk as well as expected return. The higher your bond %, the less you are exposed to poor sequence of returns, but you have lower overall expected return and greater exposure to inflation risk. Higher stock % generally has better success for a giv...
by aristotelian
Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Prius vs Prius Prime (plug-in)
Replies: 78
Views: 4122

Re: Prius vs Prius Prime (plug-in)

I replaced our 2003 Prius with 2018 Nissan Leaf. The range is enough for my commute and I never have to set foot in a gas station. I would only do PHEV if we were a single car family and needed an all purpose vehicle. Even then I might look at a Tesla before PHEV.
by aristotelian
Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: what was your worst major purchase? mine is a 2019 mazda3
Replies: 165
Views: 12106

Re: what was your worst major purchase? mine is a 2019 mazda3

Definitely our house. Older house, always things going wrong with it, and bigger than we need.
by aristotelian
Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I contribute to after-tax 401(a)?
Replies: 11
Views: 740

Re: Should I contribute to after-tax 401(a)?

You should almost certainly do pretax (not Roth) for your 401a and 457 in the 24% bracket. What is your reasoning for anticipating a effective higher tax rate in retirement? Once you have maxed your 401a and 457, yes, after tax would be fine. The conversion to Roth mentioned by the other poster is r...
by aristotelian
Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I fund all 4 tax advantage accounts?
Replies: 10
Views: 1194

Re: Can I fund all 4 tax advantage accounts?

Not quite. You would only be able to do "employer" contributions on the contractor income. Also, you can do Roth 401k but that doesn't mean you should. Are you low income?
by aristotelian
Sun Jun 23, 2019 11:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is VGT ETF pointless if you hold Vanguard Total stock Index?
Replies: 20
Views: 1919

Re: Is VGT ETF pointless if you hold Vanguard Total stock Index?

VGT is too diversified if you are looking to make an aggressive bet on AI specifically. Bogleheads generally discourage such bets knowing that total stock market funds will capture profits from AI by virtue of owning every publicly traded company.
by aristotelian
Sun Jun 23, 2019 7:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds in a Taxable Account
Replies: 21
Views: 2256

Re: Bonds in a Taxable Account

Why is this forum so biased against bonds in taxable? It isn't obvious that bonds shouldn't live in taxable. Let's see the math. It's pretty close when you consider weighting equities in tax deferred (for growth) vs. the tax hit from bonds in taxable. I would say the same, if you have an opinion th...
by aristotelian
Sun Jun 23, 2019 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to offer private equity investments? Thoughts?
Replies: 66
Views: 5459

Re: Vanguard to offer private equity investments? Thoughts?

I'm baffled by the interest some have in "Private Equity". If it was available for you to buy, it would no longer be "Private Equity", it would just be publicly owned equity with poor liquidity, poor disclosures, and un-audited balance sheets. It's almost like the SEC regulations that restrict how/...
by aristotelian
Sun Jun 23, 2019 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: depleting accounts in retirement
Replies: 43
Views: 7720

Re: depleting accounts in retirement

I would do traditional first as long as you stay in lower tax brackets. Otherwise, if you let the traditional funds sit, you are only exposing more dollars to RMD's that will be taxed at your marginal rate. If your brokerage account grows, worst case scenario the gains are taxed as LTCG.
by aristotelian
Sun Jun 23, 2019 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A.I. Index Funds?
Replies: 12
Views: 1435

Re: A.I. Index Funds?

When you get into specialized ETFs, the expense ratios go way up. At that point, you may want to just copy their holdings and buy the individual stocks. this is play money anyway, right?
by aristotelian
Sun Jun 23, 2019 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Frugal or cheap?
Replies: 104
Views: 7771

Re: Frugal or cheap?

gt5550, IMHO, it is crazy to do a 100K addition to a 180K house. It is better to buy a new house. KlangFool This ^. Plus I can’t imagine the nightmare of dealing with the contractors. Would be my take as well. I would probably stay put until ready for kid #2 and then upgrade. Managing contractors w...
by aristotelian
Sun Jun 23, 2019 10:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA all the way?
Replies: 26
Views: 2462

Re: Roth IRA all the way?

OP, you need to tell us your current marginal tax bracket and your anticipated tax bracket in retirement You should actually calculate the latter, don't just assume that because you plan to be wealthy you will be in a high tax bracket. Without that information it is just a guessing game. For most mi...
by aristotelian
Sun Jun 23, 2019 6:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Opening a trust for child's annual gifted amount
Replies: 37
Views: 2502

Re: Opening a trust for child's annual gifted amount

I hope you realize you would be impacting their taxes (and future taxes with a spouse). If you want them to learn about taxes gradually, they should start filing their own tax returns from when they get their first job. But they won't learn as much if there is passive income from gifts (capital gai...
by aristotelian
Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Oddly low Federal Inc Tax Year, how to take advantage?
Replies: 5
Views: 792

Re: Oddly low Federal Inc Tax Year, how to take advantage?

What do you mean by 10% or 15% threshold? Since you are getting this result by credits rather than deductions, I believe any additional taxable income would be at your full marginal rate. If that is the case, Roth conversions likely do not make sense to me. Unless I am missing something, I would inc...
by aristotelian
Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wife considering returning to work
Replies: 33
Views: 3397

Re: Wife considering returning to work

People talk about daycare and such, but one of the biggest intangible costs of having kids is the inevitable career setbacks from taking significant time off of work. If she has any ambition to have a career long term after kids, I would ask her to strongly consider going back to work for as much an...
by aristotelian
Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why are my Vanguard returns suddenly so low?
Replies: 40
Views: 6106

Re: Why are my Vanguard returns suddenly so low?

Has anyone asked what you are invested in?
by aristotelian
Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are there any tips / best practices for an Inherited IRA?
Replies: 26
Views: 2223

Re: Are there any tips / best practices for an Inherited IRA?

That plan will reduce future RMDs from the Inherited IRA but increase the RMDs in the 401k by even more (since the 401K RMDs have more time to grow than the Inherited IRA withdrawals which are starting in the year after death). A better idea might be to contribute to a Roth 401k instead since you a...
by aristotelian
Sat Jun 22, 2019 2:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimating long term capital gains for mutual fund
Replies: 10
Views: 947

Re: Estimating long term capital gains for mutual fund

It's really hard to estimate because they depend on the performance of the stocks and the strategy of the manager. I know last year was a bad year for a lot of active funds. It is probably best to hold them in a nontaxable account so you don't have to worry about it.
by aristotelian
Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?
Replies: 97
Views: 9826

Re: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?

May I ask, do they know about it? How are they reacting? What are you doing to head off some of the risk? They know about it but they don't know the details. They ask how much is there and we tell them it's enough to pay for college. They think it is about $10K, which is wrong on several levels, lol.
by aristotelian
Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?
Replies: 97
Views: 9826

Re: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?

Thanks for the reply. I just find the charity route difficult the more I look at it. I think it'll most likely be a friend's children or maybe just a younger person I interact with regularly once the time gets closer. Sort of a proxy kid if you will. It'd be very satisfying to leave our best friend...
by aristotelian
Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The End of Passive Investing?
Replies: 55
Views: 4796

Re: The End of Passive Investing?

If you are worried about everyone indexing, just watch an episode of Mad Money or turn on CNBC for 2 minutes and watch the tickers. People are trading all the time, every second of the day. It's like saying "if the sun stops shining the Earth will die". It's true, but there is no evidence that it is...
by aristotelian
Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Purpose of Stocks?
Replies: 20
Views: 1311

Re: Purpose of Stocks?

Each individual company will die at some point, but the collective value of the stock market has historically continued to increase along with the value of the global economy. I see the purpose of owning stocks as staying ahead of inflation. Also, not all companies die. Many smaller ones get bought ...
by aristotelian
Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?
Replies: 97
Views: 9826

Re: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?

Thanks for the reply. I just find the charity route difficult the more I look at it. I think it'll most likely be a friend's children or maybe just a younger person I interact with regularly once the time gets closer. Sort of a proxy kid if you will. It'd be very satisfying to leave our best friend...
by aristotelian
Fri Jun 21, 2019 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?
Replies: 97
Views: 9826

Re: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?

If I was DINK, my biggest concern would be identifying charitable causes to support with my estate. Is that a genuine concern or just being tongue-in-cheek? It's hard to tell on the forum sometimes. If genuine - how would you go about solving the concern? Would charities be the only option or could...
by aristotelian
Fri Jun 21, 2019 8:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?
Replies: 97
Views: 9826

Re: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?

If I was DINK, my biggest concern would be identifying charitable causes to support with my estate.
by aristotelian
Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire in 1 year at 53
Replies: 54
Views: 9108

Re: Can I retire in 1 year at 53

The market could crash by 80% and you would still be fine. This is a lifestyle question, not a financial one.
by aristotelian
Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?
Replies: 3851
Views: 709388

Re: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?

guitarguy wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:37 am
Man.......

I feel almost honored to have started this thread so long ago and to see it's STILL going!!!!

Crazy.

:D
The possibilities are endless, and there is enormous pleasure to be taken in gaming the loan shark industry.
by aristotelian
Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are there any tips / best practices for an Inherited IRA?
Replies: 26
Views: 2223

Re: Are there any tips / best practices for an Inherited IRA?

I would put all of the bond allocation in the Inherited IRA be so that your Roth is 100% stock. You want the highest return asset in an the tax free account. Tax deferred is the worst place for stocks because gains will be taxed as ordinary income. Even if you are in a low bracket in retirement, you...
by aristotelian
Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds in a Taxable Account
Replies: 21
Views: 2256

Re: Bonds in a Taxable Account

Thank you for the helpful replies, and I am sorry for the confusion, as I believe portions of my post were contradictory. Retired early. Living exclusively off a taxable account. Overall, I spend about 2% of my total portfolio. With my chosen stock / bond allocation, and operating under the theory ...
by aristotelian
Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds in a Taxable Account
Replies: 21
Views: 2256

Re: Bonds in a Taxable Account

If you have no other option besides taxable, yes, you should buy bonds in the taxable account to get to your desired allocation. Otherwise you would be changing your allocation just to avoid tax. I see allocation as the fundamental decision, because you can lose a lot more in a market crash than you...
by aristotelian
Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Low-Volatility Investing Works - Sometimes
Replies: 23
Views: 1599

Re: Larry Swedroe: Low-Volatility Investing Works - Sometimes

JBTX Actually would expect the opposite, because they have low beta exposure so would underperform and thus have lower relative valuations. And yet they have outperformed, at least recently, contradicting the conventional theory that higher volatility stocks would have higher expected return. Notwi...
by aristotelian
Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Low-Volatility Investing Works - Sometimes
Replies: 23
Views: 1599

Re: Larry Swedroe: Low-Volatility Investing Works - Sometimes

Forester wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:43 am
Hasn't low volatility in US stocks matched or beaten the market in this "growth decade" ?
USMV has beaten the S&P since inception in 2012. I would also expect it to have crashed less during the financial crisis.
by aristotelian
Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Liquidating inherited IRA, donating to DAF
Replies: 12
Views: 541

Re: Liquidating inherited IRA, donating to DAF

I must be missing something. You would pay tax on the $30K Inherited IRA at your marginal rate in order to not pay tax on the gains (only) at the LTCG rate? Seems like you are paying quarters on the dollar in order to save nickels. Are you itemizing? In that case, you could just donate the brokerag...
by aristotelian
Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Topic: tiny house + property good or bad investment?
Replies: 38
Views: 2807

Re: Topic: tiny house + property good or bad investment?

Who cares whether it is a good investment? If you can afford it and the lifestyle would make you happy, go for it. It's not like you're trying to flip it for profit.
by aristotelian
Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?
Replies: 37
Views: 3051

Re: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?

What matters is real return. When interest rates were 8%, inflation was high. Low interest rates are not a problem if in fact low inflation is the new normal. If inflation comes back, so will interest rates.
by aristotelian
Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Liquidating inherited IRA, donating to DAF
Replies: 12
Views: 541

Re: Liquidating inherited IRA, donating to DAF

I must be missing something. You would pay tax on the $30K Inherited IRA at your marginal rate in order to not pay tax on the gains (only) at the LTCG rate? Seems like you are paying quarters on the dollar in order to save nickels. Are you itemizing? In that case, you could just donate the brokerage...
by aristotelian
Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Gain Harvesting in Muni Bonds
Replies: 13
Views: 639

Re: Tax Gain Harvesting in Muni Bonds

I don't see how this makes sense unless you're in the 0% LTCG bracket. OK, some numbers. $10000 in VWITX and $500 gains. 22+8 = 30% fed + state marginal bracket. 15% + 8 = 23% LTCG rate. 1.77% SEC yield on VWITX. Scenario 1: Selling now I pay $115 in capital gains, foregoing the 1.77% / year: ~ $2 ...
by aristotelian
Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Gain Harvesting in Muni Bonds
Replies: 13
Views: 639

Re: Tax Gain Harvesting in Muni Bonds

I don't see how this makes sense unless you're in the 0% LTCG bracket.
by aristotelian
Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum and value paradox
Replies: 10
Views: 1127

Re: Momentum and value paradox

I agree. Even if momentum and value are not negatively correlated, you at least have the dilution issue where the more tilts you have, the more you end up approaching total market, which defeats the purpose. If you are going to tilt, tilt hard, IMO. Small sample size, but for 2014-2019, 30 MTUM/30 S...
by aristotelian
Wed Jun 19, 2019 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook Libra Cryptocurrency - effect on stocks or bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 3540

Re: Facebook Libra Cryptocurrency - effect on stocks or bonds?

The biggest surprise in this to me is that Mastercard and Visa (and to some extent Paypal) are backing it, as they stand to be among the biggest losers, should Libra replace credit cards or digital banking. Even if they are able to monetize it, why would they trust Facebook and cooperate with them? ...
by aristotelian
Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 220
Views: 14801

Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

My pick INSY has been delisted. Am I frozen? It’s trading today as INSYQ, a new ticker because it went bankrupt and got delisted. I’ll update the spreadsheet and you can continue to hold your position (or close it) as you like. Last price was about $0.20, down by 30% or so from yesterday. That soun...
by aristotelian
Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tempted to market time bond fund
Replies: 15
Views: 1287

Re: Tempted to market time bond fund

I approve. When the yield curve is flat, you get no compensation for duration risk of longer bonds. Might as well stay short term or cash and reevaluate in 6 months. Of course, I would have said the same thing in May but yields have continued to drop.
by aristotelian
Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 220
Views: 14801

Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

My pick INSY has been delisted. Am I frozen?
by aristotelian
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to calculate my ROI?
Replies: 7
Views: 500

Re: How to calculate my ROI?

If you use index funds, you do not need to calculate your own portfolio's performance. You can easily look up the performance of the indices, individually or in combination, and estimate your own performance. Regardless, I would not get too hung up on past performance. Focus on a having a sound stra...
by aristotelian
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 98
Views: 6856

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

So, it is a good idea to shift some funds to Utilities? All of this diversification discussion is interesting but not that helpful to me in deciding to make some changes or not. If you have common 3-fund portfolio of 50% US stocks (VTSAX), 25% VTI, and 25% BND, would shifting to 40/25/25/10 VPU (fo...
by aristotelian
Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 98
Views: 6856

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

I was playing with PV this morning to backtest some of the ideas in this thread, and made the mistake of using BND instead of VBMFX as the benchmark comparing to XLU. Doing this gives a shorter dataset from 2008 to the present. The argument for XLU hinges on providing stock-like returns less correla...
by aristotelian
Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Becoming a CFP
Replies: 13
Views: 1298

Re: Becoming a CFP

I should also add that skills create success in IT may or may not overlap with successful financial planners. Great communication and sales skills are very much required for financial planners and only sometimes found in IT pros. Kitces writes a lot about the financial planning businesses. You shou...
by aristotelian
Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 98
Views: 6856

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

Portfolio A: 100% TSM Portfolio B: 50% TSM / 50% VPU (utilities) Is Portfolio B objectively more diversified? If so, how do you know? Is there a metric you look at to determine this? This is a serious question. I’ve been thinking a lot about diversification and I’m not sure how to measure it in a l...
by aristotelian
Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to estimate taxes during retirement?
Replies: 39
Views: 2619

Re: How to estimate taxes during retirement?

Estimate your income in the major buckets and run through your tax software of choice.