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by aristotelian
Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum and value paradox
Replies: 6
Views: 666

Re: Momentum and value paradox

I agree. Even if momentum and value are not negatively correlated, you at least have the dilution issue where the more tilts you have, the more you end up approaching total market, which defeats the purpose. If you are going to tilt, tilt hard, IMO. Small sample size, but for 2014-2019, 30 MTUM/30 S...
by aristotelian
Wed Jun 19, 2019 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook Libra Cryptocurrency - effect on stocks or bonds?
Replies: 24
Views: 1571

Re: Facebook Libra Cryptocurrency - effect on stocks or bonds?

The biggest surprise in this to me is that Mastercard and Visa (and to some extent Paypal) are backing it, as they stand to be among the biggest losers, should Libra replace credit cards or digital banking. Even if they are able to monetize it, why would they trust Facebook and cooperate with them? ...
by aristotelian
Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 220
Views: 14451

Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

My pick INSY has been delisted. Am I frozen? It’s trading today as INSYQ, a new ticker because it went bankrupt and got delisted. I’ll update the spreadsheet and you can continue to hold your position (or close it) as you like. Last price was about $0.20, down by 30% or so from yesterday. That soun...
by aristotelian
Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tempted to market time bond fund
Replies: 13
Views: 908

Re: Tempted to market time bond fund

I approve. When the yield curve is flat, you get no compensation for duration risk of longer bonds. Might as well stay short term or cash and reevaluate in 6 months. Of course, I would have said the same thing in May but yields have continued to drop.
by aristotelian
Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 220
Views: 14451

Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

My pick INSY has been delisted. Am I frozen?
by aristotelian
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to calculate my ROI?
Replies: 7
Views: 469

Re: How to calculate my ROI?

If you use index funds, you do not need to calculate your own portfolio's performance. You can easily look up the performance of the indices, individually or in combination, and estimate your own performance. Regardless, I would not get too hung up on past performance. Focus on a having a sound stra...
by aristotelian
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 98
Views: 6629

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

So, it is a good idea to shift some funds to Utilities? All of this diversification discussion is interesting but not that helpful to me in deciding to make some changes or not. If you have common 3-fund portfolio of 50% US stocks (VTSAX), 25% VTI, and 25% BND, would shifting to 40/25/25/10 VPU (fo...
by aristotelian
Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 98
Views: 6629

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

I was playing with PV this morning to backtest some of the ideas in this thread, and made the mistake of using BND instead of VBMFX as the benchmark comparing to XLU. Doing this gives a shorter dataset from 2008 to the present. The argument for XLU hinges on providing stock-like returns less correla...
by aristotelian
Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Becoming a CFP
Replies: 13
Views: 1240

Re: Becoming a CFP

I should also add that skills create success in IT may or may not overlap with successful financial planners. Great communication and sales skills are very much required for financial planners and only sometimes found in IT pros. Kitces writes a lot about the financial planning businesses. You shou...
by aristotelian
Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 98
Views: 6629

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

Portfolio A: 100% TSM Portfolio B: 50% TSM / 50% VPU (utilities) Is Portfolio B objectively more diversified? If so, how do you know? Is there a metric you look at to determine this? This is a serious question. I’ve been thinking a lot about diversification and I’m not sure how to measure it in a l...
by aristotelian
Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to estimate taxes during retirement?
Replies: 39
Views: 2423

Re: How to estimate taxes during retirement?

Estimate your income in the major buckets and run through your tax software of choice.
by aristotelian
Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Doing Your Own Taxes
Replies: 36
Views: 3060

Re: Doing Your Own Taxes

Try it yourself. You can use FreetaxUSA to give it a shot. I f you can't get within $350 of your tax guy, you can stick with him. Either way it's a good exercise to understand the tax code and it's impacts on your situation.
by aristotelian
Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the Best Diversifier for Equity Risk? [Morningstar article]
Replies: 40
Views: 3280

Re: "Whats-the-Best-Diversifier-for-Equity-Risk?"

Bogleheads: Christine Benz, Morningstar's director of personal finance, answers a question often asked on this forum: What's The Best Diversifier for Equity Risk? Plain-vanilla, high-quality bonds have been among the best diversifiers for equities over the past decade, eclipsing every other asset c...
by aristotelian
Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What do you think about Vanguard Growth Index Fund for a 22-year-old?
Replies: 36
Views: 3063

Re: What do you think about Vanguard Growth Index Fund for a 22-year-old?

I have Growth Index in my taxable account because dividend is less than half of total market. You can offset with a Value or Dividend index in your Roth. Is this generally true for growth funds, are you saying less dividends than blended or value, less taxable income? Yes, Vanguard Growth dividend ...
by aristotelian
Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What do you think about Vanguard Growth Index Fund for a 22-year-old?
Replies: 36
Views: 3063

Re: What do you think about Vanguard Growth Index Fund for a 22-year-old?

I have Growth Index in my taxable account because dividend is less than half of total market. You can offset with a Value or Dividend index in your Roth.
by aristotelian
Fri Jun 14, 2019 2:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: DIY for UHNW
Replies: 41
Views: 2795

Re: DIY for UHNW

I remember hitting 100k and thinking 1m would be a lot of money. Now I am at 1m and it is really not different except for the number of zeroes. I would go for it with the caveats you mentioned. Might be worth looking into something things like setting up a charitable foundation or trust. Read the Bo...
by aristotelian
Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?
Replies: 3831
Views: 705630

Re: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?

I have 4 BoA Cash Rewards cards so I get: 5.25 for Gas 5.25 for Travel 5.25 for Groceries 5.25 for Dining 2.7 for everything else using BoA Platinum My goal is : CC 'cash-back' >= 1% + Fed CPI Inflation Rate (2.2%) { not including sign-up 1 time bonus } Have you thought of opening multiple BofA cas...
by aristotelian
Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Starbucks; buy, sell, hold?
Replies: 41
Views: 3104

Re: Starbucks; buy, sell, hold?

Holding stocks in traditional IRA makes zero sense and there is no tax consequence to selling. Therefore, you should sell the shares in your IRA. Then ask yourself if you want to buy SBUX with cash in your brokerage account.
by aristotelian
Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 8398

Re: The Case Against ETFs

Counterpoint. Real timing trading is an advantage. If I want to execute a trade during my lunch break, I can do so, knowing exactly the price I will get. Capital gains tax is a built in incentive to mitigate the temptation to day trade. The fractional share argument is true, but the most you will ha...
by aristotelian
Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car or no car? Need advise!
Replies: 9
Views: 947

Re: Car or no car? Need advise!

I would try B first. You can always decide to buy a car but you can't undecide if you have already bought.
by aristotelian
Wed Jun 12, 2019 3:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: HSA - Save Reciepts When Paying Bills?
Replies: 36
Views: 2196

Re: HSA - Save Reciepts When Paying Bills?

I scan the big ones. I don't worry about the random copay. I figure I will have plenty of health expenses in the future so I don't need to sweat tracking every single item.
by aristotelian
Sun Jun 09, 2019 10:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I'm thinking about buying a supercar anyone here done this and feedback?
Replies: 241
Views: 12955

Re: I'm thinking about buying an exotic supercar anyone here done this and feedback?

Personally I would rather donate to charity. Just a waste of wealth to indulge in pure luxury when the money could do good to people in need.

Anyway, 150K isn't close to a supercar. I would say 500k to 1M to get into supercar territory.
by aristotelian
Sun Jun 09, 2019 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market up because of rate cut expectation - why ?
Replies: 21
Views: 2771

Re: Market up because of rate cut expectation - why ?

The rate cut could help prevent or reverse the slowdown. Also lower yields mean bonds are less attractive so money has nowhere else to go. I think most importantly the market thinks the Fed now is taking growth slowdown seriously is not overcommitted to raising rates for no reason.
by aristotelian
Sun Jun 09, 2019 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Converting Cash to Bonds
Replies: 1
Views: 445

Re: Converting Cash to Bonds

Definitely reasonable long term strategy. Be aware that the yield curve is quite flat, meaning you won't get much of a premium from higher yields. It also means that if the yield curve normalizes with higher long term rates, existing bonds would lose value and you would see your market value go down...
by aristotelian
Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Chewy IPO
Replies: 43
Views: 3200

Re: Chewy IPO

My thoughts are: I've never heard of it before. Found this, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chewy-sets-terms-of-ipo-to-raise-up-to-1064-million-2019-06-03 and their website https://www.chewy.com/ My next thought was, can't I already order pet stuff from Amazon.com ? What does Chewy.com offer that...
by aristotelian
Thu Jun 06, 2019 3:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Mint Mobile customers here?
Replies: 27
Views: 1619

Re: Any Mint Mobile customers here?

Very happy with Mint. $15/month cannot be beat.
by aristotelian
Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gillette Fusion razors
Replies: 57
Views: 4880

Re: Gillette Fusion razors

Cartridge razors are all ripoffs as far as I am concerned. I have found them to be a better value than disposables (especially in Costo packs), because of the poor initial sharpness and rapid dulling of the latter. At best, I only ever got mediocre shaves with lots of skin irritation from disposabl...
by aristotelian
Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 1-fund approach with ITOT?
Replies: 8
Views: 970

Re: 1-fund approach with ITOT?

If you are under 35 and you have a high risk tolerance, I think this is a great idea.
by aristotelian
Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pine Tree Incident
Replies: 31
Views: 3545

Re: Pine Tree Incident

How can they stop you from getting other bids? What is the situation with insurance coverage? I suppose if insurance will cover it and the company is reputable, you might as well do what's easiest, but if I was paying out of pocket I would be suspicious. Glad nobody is hurt and the house is livable....
by aristotelian
Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Children's IRA
Replies: 13
Views: 1411

Re: Children's IRA

To me, yardwork falls squarely under chores rather than employment. The real test of whether it counts as earned income is if someone else in the neighborhood will hire them.

You could put their earnings in a UTMA or simply in a brokerage account in your name to gift them later.
by aristotelian
Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: This market just scares me...
Replies: 43
Views: 4160

Re: This market just scares me...

You can change your allocation without market timing as your risk tolerance changes. A windfall can certainly change your need, willingness, and ability to take risk. Keep in mind that bond yields are as low as they have been in 2+ years. You are not going to get much return by going into bonds righ...
by aristotelian
Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe is far from a passive investor and I am beginning to agree
Replies: 62
Views: 5813

Re: Swedroe is far from a passive investor and I am beginning to agree

Changing your allocation because you are 70 and your risk tolerance is changing is perfectly sensible. You do not need to get into market timing, just do it and stick with it.
by aristotelian
Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gillette Fusion razors
Replies: 57
Views: 4880

Re: Gillette Fusion razors

Cartridge razors are all ripoffs as far as I am concerned.
by aristotelian
Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Ladder Managed Account
Replies: 41
Views: 2605

Re: Bond Ladder Managed Account

Isn't a bond index essentially a bond ladder managed account with a lower expense ratio?
by aristotelian
Wed Jun 05, 2019 6:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying half of my paycheck on health insurance?
Replies: 63
Views: 4453

Re: Paying half of my paycheck on health insurance?

Your W-2 should have a box for total amount paid by employer. I believe last year my contribution plus employer was something like $17k for family of four. For most of us these costs are hidden in the employer share, but if your employer doesn't subsidize much, those costs are going to sting. Withou...
by aristotelian
Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Walking Cities, potential for retirees
Replies: 92
Views: 7246

Re: Walking Cities, potential for retirees

We live in a small college town. Our walkability score is the same as the neighborhood we lived in in Brooklyn. Kids' school, bike trails, restaurants, library, grocery store, gym, hiking trails are all within a few blocks. I think DC, NYC, or Chicago would all be fine without a car, although you wo...
by aristotelian
Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 61
Views: 6828

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

My 2% SLYV tilt is rocking this week!
by aristotelian
Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity expands commission-free ETF list to >500
Replies: 55
Views: 4544

Re: Fidelity expands commission-free ETF list to >500

This is the way mutual fund offerings progressed at various brokerage. First, there were a few no-transaction-fee funds. Then there were more. Then there were thousands of them. But who cares? There are only about 10 funds or less that one would want to buy and that goes for ETFs, too. I don't care...
by aristotelian
Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing bonds in tax advantaged versus taxable accounts
Replies: 10
Views: 1054

Re: Investing bonds in tax advantaged versus taxable accounts

Do you want stock gains to be taxed as long term capital gains in taxable or as income in 401k? Better for stocks to be in taxable, which leaves bonds in 401k.
by aristotelian
Mon Jun 03, 2019 12:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Would you sell AAPL to reduce stock exposure?
Replies: 20
Views: 1665

Re: Would you sell AAPL to reduce stock exposure?

Shouldn't you have sold when it was up? Seems like tail wagging the dog to sell now when down.
by aristotelian
Sun Jun 02, 2019 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Socially responsible investing
Replies: 27
Views: 4025

Re: Socially responsible investing

Jane Bryant Quinn states in her book “How to Make Your Money Last” that Vanguard’s Social Index Fund “has held its own against the S&P 500 for the past 10 years.” (The book was published in 2017.) Personally I hold about half of my equity investments in VFTAX, and it has been my experience that it ...
by aristotelian
Sun Jun 02, 2019 5:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth v 401k at income levels
Replies: 18
Views: 1815

Re: Roth v 401k at income levels

I would still continue to prioritize your 401k. As it gets bigger, you will be getting less tax benefit, but you are still probably getting some. You should hold bonds in the 401k to put a limit on further growth (assuming your asset allocation calls for bonds). Are you thinking about early retireme...
by aristotelian
Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommend a small inexpensive laser printer?
Replies: 39
Views: 2437

Re: Recommend a small inexpensive laser printer?

Very happy with Brother HLL2395DW. Monochrome laser with scanner. It is bigger than I expected but easy to connect via Wifi, fast, works great.
by aristotelian
Sun Jun 02, 2019 6:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to best tax-advantage pre-ipo stock for kids?
Replies: 4
Views: 371

Re: How to best tax-advantage pre-ipo stock for kids?

As long as it's less than $11 million the transfer itself is not taxable. Otherwise just invest efficiently and pay taxes owed.
by aristotelian
Sat Jun 01, 2019 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are there any compounding interest differences between contributing to two 401k accounts rather than one?
Replies: 7
Views: 680

Re: Are there any compounding interest differences between contributing to two 401k accounts rather than one?

Not really. However, the factor to consider in optimizing is not investment returns (since they will be the same) but tax benefit. The choice between Roth and Traditional depends on the difference between your tax bracket now and in retirement. Since taxable income is generally lower when you stop w...
by aristotelian
Sat Jun 01, 2019 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: UTMA Mutual Funds Disaster!
Replies: 22
Views: 2191

Re: UTMA Mutual Funds Disaster!

Tough call between tax hit of realized gains vs expense of staying in managed funds. Definitely turn off dividend reinvestment on all funds, and sell all showing losses or incremental gains. Then sell incrementally as much as you are willing to pay tax on. If you are young, it is probably worth it t...
by aristotelian
Fri May 31, 2019 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Feedback on 403b meeting with school board member
Replies: 27
Views: 1443

Re: Feedback on 403b meeting with school board member

I don't doubt your math, but if I am an administrator it would be more compelling if backed up by something more official looking than a Google Doc. Morningstar might be a place to look since they don't have ties to any particular brokerages.
by aristotelian
Fri May 31, 2019 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to First Invest HSA Contribution $3,500
Replies: 11
Views: 701

Re: How to First Invest HSA Contribution $3,500

Lively uses TD Ameritrade as a custodian, so you will want to pick from their commission free ETF list rather than the Vanguard funds you listed, i.e. SPTM and SPAB according to your risk tolerance.

Note that larger investments do not need to be more complicated.
by aristotelian
Thu May 30, 2019 3:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fun paid jobs after FIRE
Replies: 171
Views: 14893

Re: Fun paid jobs after FIRE

-Adjunct college professor
-Dog walker
-Artist/musician
-Instructor in whatever you're good at (yoga, fishing etc)
-Tour guide (hiking etc)
by aristotelian
Thu May 30, 2019 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The Best High Yield Savings Account
Replies: 25
Views: 2187

Re: The Best High Yield Savings Account

They are pretty much the same. Capital One and BBVA Compass have bonus offers for MM accounts around 2.4%.