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by aristotelian
Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient Markets Indeed
Replies: 21
Views: 1546

Re: Efficient Markets Indeed

DonIce wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:45 pm
https://www.

Don't remember this kind of IPO hysteria since the dot com bubble.
Lyft went down 30%. A lot if IPOs have been doing poorly. I would guess these numbers are on low volume representing a few people capitalizing on the ignorance of a slightly greater few.
by aristotelian
Sat Apr 20, 2019 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: DW worried about What if ...? Wishes to pay off mortgage
Replies: 32
Views: 2500

Re: DW worried about What if ...? Wishes to pay off mortgage

Pay off mortgage vs keep cash vs investing has no effect on your net worth. It's just a matter of risk tolerance. One concern is liquidity. If something were to happen to you, a cushion for your spouse and heirs could be nice to have.
by aristotelian
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ever Too Much in HSA?
Replies: 23
Views: 2319

Re: Ever Too Much in HSA?

No. If nothing bad happens to me, I will spend it down on Long Term Care insurance. Absolute worst case scenario, you use it like 401k.
by aristotelian
Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 211
Views: 16834

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

Too bad. I have been watching it and noticed the price appears to be frozen most of the time with very little trading going on. The price isn’t frozen, you’ll see the bid & ask adjust every item the implied value shifts penny by penny. Rather, you won’t see executed trades often because there’s are...
by aristotelian
Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 211
Views: 16834

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

Too bad. I have been watching it and noticed the price appears to be frozen most of the time with very little trading going on.
by aristotelian
Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I start doing Roth Conversions and if so
Replies: 43
Views: 2037

Re: Should I start doing Roth Conversions and if so

Where is the $300K of dividends coming from?

I say yes, not knowing anything other than SS and RMD's are coming so your taxes have nowhere to go but up.
by aristotelian
Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Not Maxing 401K OK?
Replies: 39
Views: 3906

Re: Not Maxing 401K OK?

Do not listen to the mindless "you must max out your 401k" mantra espoused by some on here. It is a useless metric. Like all arbitrary dollar amounts its value is limited to a narrow range of individuals. For many people it is either far less or more than necessary. You are contributing almost $30K...
by aristotelian
Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Structuring Portfolio for Moderate Income Withdrawal?
Replies: 10
Views: 519

Re: Structuring Portfolio for Moderate Income Withdrawal?

Do we even really know what he is paying the FA? Let's stick with the facts please. It is true that the SWR has to include fees paid out the withdrawal just like any other expense such as taxes, food, vacations, rent, mortgage, vehicle loans, utilities, insurance, .... Sticking with "facts" would b...
by aristotelian
Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Structuring Portfolio for Moderate Income Withdrawal?
Replies: 10
Views: 519

Re: Structuring Portfolio for Moderate Income Withdrawal?

I'd recommend starting at most at a 3.5% sustained withdrawal rate. So if $1.3M that is $11,375 per quarter. See also: https://earlyretirementnow.com/2016/12/07/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-1-intro/ You can always change it later. He has a financial advisor. He should keep in mi...
by aristotelian
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TIAA Traditional Question - Moving from Liquid to Non-liquid Version
Replies: 4
Views: 380

Re: TIAA Traditional Question - Moving from Liquid to Non-liquid Version

I use the non liquid version. Only downside is that my 401k is my primary vehicle for rebalancing between stocks and fixed income, so it may be beneficial to keep some funds in their liquid version and/or a bond fund. Once money goes into the regular version, it's in a black box that I don't plan on...
by aristotelian
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What are the Pro’s and Con’s to Tips?
Replies: 7
Views: 869

Re: What are the Pro’s and Con’s to Tips?

Many hold bonds for non-correlation with stocks as the best hedge for positive return during stock bear markets. The primary purpose of TIPS is inflation protection. TIPS negative correlation with stocks is weaker than Treasuries. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-class-correlations They sho...
by aristotelian
Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?
Replies: 54
Views: 3729

Re: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?

That doesn't seem very "rule based" to me. What is a "2008 type crash?" Are any two crashes alike? What if it's a slow descent, like from 2000-2003? What if stocks fall by 40% How will the decline be precisely measured? A rule-based system certainly be crafted, but it doesn't seem like there's enou...
by aristotelian
Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fire my financial advisor now or later? (recent windfall help needed)
Replies: 44
Views: 3262

Re: Fire my financial advisor now or later? (recent windfall help needed)

If you feel comfortable with index fund investing on your own, just do it now. If so, keep contact with FA to a minimum. ML is fine, but if you decide to change, you just do an in-kind transfer and there are no tax implications. Might be cleaner to transfer elsewhere now to get FA out of the picture...
by aristotelian
Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation - 34 year old worth $1.2M
Replies: 21
Views: 3117

Re: Asset Allocation - 34 year old worth $1.2M

What are the interest rates on the mortgage and/or RE debt? You can deduct the RE debt as business expense against the RE income, correct?

If you got a great deal on the mortgage rate, you might be better off buying bonds and/or taking risk on the stock side.
by aristotelian
Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about selling stocks near all time highs
Replies: 84
Views: 6698

Re: Thinking about selling stocks near all time highs

If you are trying to time the market with the thought of buying back in after some future crash, I would repeat the mantra that nobody knows the future and you are better off with a set allocation through thick and thin. If you have made enough gains that you have hit a threshold where your risk tol...
by aristotelian
Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Inherited 401k Options: Non-Spouse, Beneficiary Age < 59.5, Deceased > 59.5 and < 70.5
Replies: 8
Views: 422

Re: Inherited 401k Options: Non-Spouse, Beneficiary Age < 59.5, Deceased > 59.5 and < 70.5

I would do #2, as IRA would give you the most control over how the funds are invested. Note that Inherited IRA would not interfere with backdoor Roth, so there is no downside.
by aristotelian
Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?
Replies: 54
Views: 3729

Re: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?

What are you proposing is market timing. Bogleheads are generally opposed to it for a variety of reasons. I personally use a specific form of market timing referred to as trend following. But what you are proposing is subjective timing of the market, and history says that it's very unlikely to perf...
by aristotelian
Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?
Replies: 54
Views: 3729

Re: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?

What are you proposing is market timing. Bogleheads are generally opposed to it for a variety of reasons. I personally use a specific form of market timing referred to as trend following. But what you are proposing is subjective timing of the market, and history says that it's very unlikely to perf...
by aristotelian
Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ready to buy a new cheap smartphone - any gotchas?
Replies: 40
Views: 3356

Re: Ready to buy a new cheap smartphone - any gotchas?

That phone is three generations out of date. It probably will not upgrade to the current Android system. I would suggest getting Moto G6 with Google FI service. The cost is $100 + first month of service. You can then cancel the service and go with the provider of choice. https://fi.google.com/about...
by aristotelian
Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ready to buy a new cheap smartphone - any gotchas?
Replies: 40
Views: 3356

Re: Ready to buy a new cheap smartphone - any gotchas?

I am ready to replace my slow and cracked Samsung Galaxy J7 with a modern phone. I have read the many forum postings here who suggest Motorola. Would this one do the trick: https://www.amazon.com/Moto-4th-Generation-hands-free-Exclusive/dp/B077YNYFPD/ Can I uninstall all the Amazon bloatware and us...
by aristotelian
Thu Apr 18, 2019 5:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: how did Vanguard IT Treasury Index return 4.64% over 1 year?
Replies: 3
Views: 1280

Re: how did Vanguard IT Treasury Index return 4.64% over 1 year?

Intermediate and long Interest rates dropped a lot when stocks corrected in December.
by aristotelian
Wed Apr 17, 2019 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Basement water issues
Replies: 33
Views: 2272

Re: Basement water issues

I think your best recourse is to sue the flipper and/or home inspector for failing to disclose this issue. This could be very difficult to do and the real issue is that the cost to sue could be greater than the cost to remediate. We looked into this on our house but let’s say we spent $10,000 on an...
by aristotelian
Wed Apr 17, 2019 2:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Three Fund Portfolio Advice -- Vanguard/TIAA-CREF
Replies: 6
Views: 565

Re: Three Fund Portfolio Advice -- Vanguard/TIAA-CREF

You need to post all of the fund options within your plan. TIAA has different share classes of the same fund, and often offers various funds from third parties. In addition to whatever bond fund is offered by your TIAA plan, you should take a look at TIAA Traditional Annuity. I use it for about 50% ...
by aristotelian
Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Financial Advisor Issues
Replies: 18
Views: 1373

Re: Financial Advisor Issues

OP, Read William Bernstein "If You Can" free PDF. Great intro/manifesto for DIY index investing Then fill out transfer forms for Schwab/Vanguard/Fidelity and you're done. Do not waste your time arguing with advisors you don't want or trust. Your new custodian will handle everything so there is no ne...
by aristotelian
Wed Apr 17, 2019 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Basement water issues
Replies: 33
Views: 2272

Re: Basement water issues

I think your best recourse is to sue the flipper and/or home inspector for failing to disclose this issue.
by aristotelian
Wed Apr 17, 2019 10:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Re-balancing "organically"
Replies: 12
Views: 1259

Re: Re-balancing "organically"

The larger your portfolio, the less impact incremental new dollars will have. If you view allocation in % terms, the market could outstrip your ability to get back to your allocation without buying and selling.
by aristotelian
Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why buy a CD with a brokerage firm?
Replies: 17
Views: 1171

Re: Why buy a CD with a brokerage firm?

dm200 wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:03 am
One advantage of brokered CDs is being able to have all of your CD investments FDIC insured and in one place (for convenience, etc.)
+1, especially if buying in tax advantaged account.
by aristotelian
Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best option for child inheritance
Replies: 12
Views: 1059

Re: Best option for child inheritance

If you do Option A, just make it a gift with no strings attached. It sounds like this is an adult child. Requiring them to max this or that account gets into micromanaging their finances, IMO. It may not even be optimal to max a 401k making $40K. You could give them a copy of The Bogleheads Guide wi...
by aristotelian
Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Savings account for child?
Replies: 35
Views: 1430

Re: Savings account for child?

My 9 and 11 year olds have accounts at our local credit union (technically they are joint accounts with me). They do not earn interest but the amount of interest that they could earn is so small that I don't mind. I think it's more important to get them familiar with the idea of depositing checks an...
by aristotelian
Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does Alliant Credit Union make money on their Credit Card?
Replies: 23
Views: 2199

Re: How does Alliant Credit Union make money on their Credit Card?

Ever wonder why some merchants give you a discount if you pay cash? Merchants pay credit card companies a fee (generally on a per transaction basis, as I recall the fees are generally between 1% - 4% ). It's been awhile since I looked into it, so my numbers may be off. That's the question. If Visa ...
by aristotelian
Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market go up in the long term?
Replies: 62
Views: 4386

Re: Why does the stock market go up in the long term?

It makes sense to me that the market always goes up at least with inflation and GDP. I think it remains to be seen whether it will "always" go up at the historical return of the S&P500. Certainly we are aware of international markets that have had lower return over long periods.
by aristotelian
Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding using treasury futures for leverage to implement risk parity
Replies: 100
Views: 5571

Re: Understanding using treasury futures for leverage to implement risk parity

There is an ETF that does it for you: NTSX expense ratio is reasonable: 0.20% I am replacing my US Large allocation with this to achieve better risk parity. +1. I have not bought any yet but I am looking to open a position soon. I like the idea of this fund to use leverage on the bond side to achie...
by aristotelian
Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FreeTaxUSA website down
Replies: 16
Views: 1757

Re: FreeTaxUSA website down

Vulcan wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:08 pm
Credit Karma is completely free - and completely awesome.
Used it last year and this, very pleased.
Do they import investment data yet or do you still have to do it manually? Free with imported investment data is the Holy Grail...
by aristotelian
Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Increasing Risk in Retirement
Replies: 26
Views: 2121

Re: Increasing Risk in Retirement

In retirement, is your goal growth of capital, or preservation of capital? Your AA should be chosen with your goal in mind. OP mentions early retirement specifically. The problem is that early retirees need large stock allocation to stay ahead of inflation. Of course, that exposes you to sequence o...
by aristotelian
Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: volunteering to teach financial literacy basics
Replies: 27
Views: 1323

Re: volunteering to teach financial literacy basics

I would be worried about liability issues unless you work for an organization that carries its own insurance.
by aristotelian
Sun Apr 14, 2019 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Post your Investment Policy Statement IPS here
Replies: 62
Views: 64453

Re: Post your Investment Policy Statement IPS here

1 - Every Saturday and on the last day of each month update my spreadsheet of all my investments. Then save it as a .PDF in a folder as a permanent record (the spreadsheet becomes my own personalized statement). The speadsheet keeps track of my asset allocation, my expense ratio, and my "total net ...
by aristotelian
Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Individual 401K vs. SEP-IRA
Replies: 18
Views: 718

Re: Individual 401K vs. SEP-IRA

I can only think of a couple reasons to do a SEP IRA vs. a one-participant 401k You can always adopt a one-participant 401k later even if you don't have self-employed earned income that year and rollover the SEP IRA. If this is true, then why not opt for the (much easier) SEP, then when you're read...
by aristotelian
Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trust investment choices for a difficult beneficiary
Replies: 108
Views: 6086

Re: Trust investment choices for a difficult beneficiary

He does turn 62 this year so he could take SS. Thanks for the good wishes. The only reason I have an advisor was to put a buffer between myself and beneficiary. Even that has not helped really as he blames me for the negative return in the portfolio in 2018 when there was a correction from October ...
by aristotelian
Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Individual 401K vs. SEP-IRA
Replies: 18
Views: 718

Re: Individual 401K vs. SEP-IRA

At high income, 401k is advantageous for the reason Spirit Rider said--SEP would interfere with Backdoor Roth.
At lower income, 401k is advantageous because you can contribute more due to the $18K individual contribution.
Basically, you should almost always do Solo 401k.
by aristotelian
Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ORP says I should stop all pre-tax contribs
Replies: 75
Views: 5845

Re: ORP says I should stop all pre-tax contribs

I can't comment on ORP, but you might run your numbers through this spreadsheet. If you are pretty certain your retirement tax rate will be below 24%, I would still go with pretax. When in doubt, you can always do some of each. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_AR7SkvlF7w0qZES9OAhERSajZpsdOvM...
by aristotelian
Fri Apr 12, 2019 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What % bonds for early retirement
Replies: 41
Views: 3575

Re: What % bonds for early retirement

I'm on path to be FI before 50 as well, TA, and I'm sticking with age in bonds. If your plans involve not only FI, but having a long retirement, you need the ballast. Actually, for the most part, you need a higher % of stock to stay ahead of inflation, unless you have a low withdrawal rate. Success...
by aristotelian
Fri Apr 12, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What % bonds for early retirement
Replies: 41
Views: 3575

Re: What % bonds for early retirement

If the question is what % of bonds right now at age 32 for early retirement in 20 years, I would say 0-20%. The odds of stocks not outperforming bonds over 20 years is almost nil. If there is a massive crash, you will lose a lot short term, but you would have a great opportunity to buy back in over ...
by aristotelian
Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holding LT Treasury bonds in high equity portfolio with flat yield curve
Replies: 36
Views: 2659

Re: Holding LT Treasury bonds in high equity portfolio with flat yield curve

If I were to buy bonds now seeking low risk, I would buy short. The yield of LTT relative to the duration risk is not compelling. If I were looking for a long term holding with the best chance of going up when stocks go down, I would stick with LTT. At some point, interest rates will rise, and LTT w...
by aristotelian
Thu Apr 11, 2019 3:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Too much overlap/how bad is my portfolio?
Replies: 6
Views: 505

Re: Too much overlap/how bad is my portfolio?

I think you know what we are going to say. If you deviate from the standard portfolio, you are increasing fees, reducing diversification (without increasing expected return), and taking the risk of underperforming the market. Of course, you may beat the market, but there is no way to know except in ...
by aristotelian
Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trust investment choices for a difficult beneficiary
Replies: 108
Views: 6086

Re: Trust investment choices for a difficult beneficiary

If you are referring to the "prudent investor" legal standard, my impression (not a lawyer) is that it is more of a guideline. It does not say that this or that asset class is allowed or not. If you think an annuity would serve the trustee's best interest and you've done your due diligence, I don't ...
by aristotelian
Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "Medium-Term" Investing Options
Replies: 12
Views: 717

Re: "Medium-Term" Investing Options

Keep in mind that Lifestrategy is made up of stocks and bonds. Money is fungible, so there is no difference between holding, say, $10K in Lifestrategy, versus $4K in stocks + $6K in bonds. That far out, I would just aim to save perhaps half the amount you need in bonds or cash, and invest the rest a...
by aristotelian
Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying Estimated Taxes in Retirement
Replies: 24
Views: 1463

Re: Paying Estimated Taxes in Retirement

Do you use Turbotax? You can just change any numbers on your 2018 return that you expect to be different this year.
by aristotelian
Thu Apr 11, 2019 6:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me make the most of a bad 401K!
Replies: 17
Views: 1124

Re: Help me make the most of a bad 401K!

+1 to above, you can prioritize wife's Roth using Backdoor option if necessary. Any chance either of you have access to HSA? You could also prioritize HSA. There is no good option in the plan. You will need to do some calculation to determine at what point the fees catch up to the tax advantage. Tha...
by aristotelian
Wed Apr 10, 2019 4:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Inheritance Advice for Newbie:
Replies: 13
Views: 1130

Re: Inheritance Advice for Newbie:

Whether to use the liquidity to max your retirement accounts depends on the tax benefit. With $1M in taxable accounts, you might end up in a higher bracket in retirement than you had thought. If you have a pension on top of your inheritance and retirement accounts and SS, you could end up in a high ...
by aristotelian
Wed Apr 10, 2019 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: M1 Finance Portfolio Review
Replies: 3
Views: 354

Re: M1 Finance Portfolio Review

Dividend funds have the same expected return as total stock market, but less diversification and higher expense.

If you do use this strategy, it would be more tax efficient in an IRA.