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tchoupitoulas

There are whole years where this strategy underperforms. Like (in just the past decade) 2013, 2015, 2016, and 2018. All of those are years where TMF went down. There has not been a year in the past decade where TMF was negative for the year and the strategy outperformed the S&P. In the words of ...

tchoupitoulas

Can anyone explain the steps to load UPROSIM2 and TMFSIM2 from the original HF thread into portfolio visualizer? I don't see where those specific data files reside within the Siamond's Google sheet and I also don't see where I can load custom data files into PV - from HedgeFundie's screenshots it l...

tchoupitoulas

Is anyone dumping some small sum like $10k in UPRO/TMF and rebalancing every month/quarter (but no new money), and maybe in 30 years time it will hit $1 million? This was the original idea, and I am in fact doing this. I presume this to be the mainstream version. Yes this is what I am doing as well...

tchoupitoulas

Total non-sequitur: as a follower of this strategy, it has been fun reading the thread about AQR's abysmal performance this year. I'm sure we'll have our tough years too... so I'm resisting the urge to gloat. Hedgefundie, thank you, wherever you are! https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=...

tchoupitoulas

One thing that has been helpful for me that I haven't seen mentioned yet: take notes! I have a little document on my phone where I note the clothes that kept me comfortable in ranges of 10 degrees F. So when I wake up and see that it's in the 40s I can check my phone and know that I'll be comfortabl...

tchoupitoulas

Start date: 4/3/2019 Approach until 10/2019: Fixed allocation - 40/60 UPRO/TMF Rebalancing frequency: Quarterly Approach 10/2019 to present: Adaptive allocation (risk parity) Rebalancing frequency: Monthly Return (total / YTD): (77%/25%) Initial contribution: $36K Additional contributions: None Port...

tchoupitoulas

My favorite gin is Green Hat Gin’s Navy Strength, but I have only been able to find it in the DC area. I currently have a bottle of Uncle Val’s botanical gin that I like. It is less than $30 if memory serves. I prefer “modern” gins with a range of flavors rather than the traditional dry style. There...

tchoupitoulas

Our dear friends at Tesla just released their 2nd quarter safety data. In the 2nd quarter, we registered one accident for every 4.53 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for e...

tchoupitoulas

Here's one I don't think anyone will mention: Congo, by Michael Crichton. Congo was the first "grown up" book I read. I was 10 and I was in summer camp, and the kid in the bunk above me had just finished it. I had never been hooked by a book like that. I distinctly remember walking to and ...

tchoupitoulas

I am curious how the adventure is turning out, but it's difficult to keep score now that Hedgefundie has jettisoned the thread. Could anyone start a HF III, where they show the results of their investment (hopefully starting not too long after HF)? Just use PV: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/b...

tchoupitoulas

Checking in on my one year anniversary following the strategy.

Me: +40%
S&P: -14%

Needless to say I am pleased and will continue to stay the course. Thank you Hedgefundie!

tchoupitoulas

Ours is closed for a month. They've announced that tuition will be optional for whatever period of time it's closed. I believe the right thing to do here is to keep paying as long as I'm still getting paid myself.

tchoupitoulas

I was 60% TMF, 40% UPRO at the start of the year (OG strategy) in my Roth IRA. The weightings at this point are 21% UPRO, 79% TMF. So far I am down a few %, while the greater market is down 20%+. Today I have alternated between -2% and 2%. Compared to the market, the strategy seems to be holding up...

tchoupitoulas

This is a similar point that made by Triple digit golfer just before me, but I think you're focused too much on your money weighted return and not enough on your time weighted return. Others will be more expert than I am in this, but the money weighted return is strongly affected by when you made co...

tchoupitoulas

TMF up 22%. UPRO down 21% This portfolio is more or less flat for the day. Long live risk parity! Lot of us are actually making quite a bit of $ today in this strategy because of TMF and the strategy is at all time high on this BLOODY MONDAY👍👍 Yup. I’m at an all time high today by a very wide margi...

tchoupitoulas

LOL... what a wild week! Got popped out of my TQQQ trend following system yesterday, when SPX busted through its 200 day MA. Ended up about 30% from where I initiated the position in August. A far cry from the 100%+ return I had a week ago.... now guess we will see if I get whipsawed around with it...

tchoupitoulas

I bought a used (2015) Leaf for the exact reasons you listed. My commute to work is 6 miles each way and we have another "regular" car. So my feeling was that even if I lose half the range I still have more than enough. It has been two years now and I've been very happy with it. I paid som...

tchoupitoulas

I think this is a great question that doesn't get enough attention. I've struggled with this in the past. One overarching thing that has helped me is to structure my investments so that I don't need to check them ever and so that there's really nothing I could do even if I did check them. For me tha...

tchoupitoulas

I've been a Betterment customer since 2014 and I'm happy with it. Here's a post I wrote explaining why I think it's worth it: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=278189&p=4547280#p4547280 (If you've already read the threads on this subject maybe you've already seen this. If ...

tchoupitoulas

My start date is 4/2/19. Up 55% since then. I've been in the original 40/60 with quarterly rebalancing since inception but I am switching to a monthy rebalancing risk parity approach. Today that means 50/50. Started with 5% of my net worth and am resisting the temptation to add more.

tchoupitoulas

Thanks so much for this helpful discussion. Here is some more backtesting comparing the two approaches. For all of the following, the Target Vol settings have a cap of 70% UPRO and a 15% volatility target with a 1 month lookback. This produced a risk profile almost identical to the risk parity appr...

tchoupitoulas

Thanks so much for this helpful discussion. Here is some more backtesting comparing the two approaches. For all of the following, the Target Vol settings have a cap of 70% UPRO and a 15% volatility target with a 1 month lookback. This produced a risk profile almost identical to the risk parity appr...

tchoupitoulas

... Would it make any sense to blend those two adaptive approaches? For example, calculate both the adaptive risk parity and target volatility once a month and take the average of the two? Bit cute for me. I personally see no timing advantage to looking at bond volatility, but could see one in equi...

tchoupitoulas

FWIW, I've been in the OG 60/40 variant since April 3 and am planning to switch to a monthly rebalancing approach but using risk parity rather than target vol. The risk parity approach leads to much more muted swings in allocation. For example, you would never (as far as I can tell) hit a ceiling o...

tchoupitoulas

UPRO, TMF Allocation: From reading page 46 of this thread, it seemed pretty intuitive that the 25% target volatility rebalancing would make sense. In short, higher volatility is associated with a decrease in the performance of the SP500, while lower volatility is associated with increases. Thus, wh...

tchoupitoulas

I grew up in Westchester. $230k may not count as "middle class" nationally but it's amazing how much you can make and still feel crunched trying to live what feels like a middle class lifestyle in New York. I'm not sure what part of Westchester you're in but I suspect that you have three b...

tchoupitoulas

And, I'm not sure your referenced material really says low interest rate environments are more volatile for bond values. Saying that a 1% yield change to a 3% bond has a bigger impact to value than it does to a 6% bond doesn't necessarily mean 1% yield changes are as common in a 3%-yield world than...

tchoupitoulas

I've been following this and the original thread since the beginning and am still an investor in the OG 60/40 version. My inception date is April 3 and I'm up 37% since then. I have a question I don't believe I've seen addressed yet. Is there an inherent (as in, mathematical, law of physics type thi...

tchoupitoulas

I have used both and the rotary used to chew up my neck pretty badly.

tchoupitoulas

I am still using the original 60/40 TMF/UPRO allocation. I'm currently up 27.7% and approaching my second rebalance date in a few weeks. I have no plans to change.

tchoupitoulas

I'm someone who eats meat but would like to eat less to reduce environmental and ethical impact. I generally like meat substitutes (tempeh, trader joe's soy chorizo, etc.). I made the Beyond Burger at home and it had a funny taste. Would not buy it again. I ordered the impossible burger for the firs...

tchoupitoulas

I posted this article in another thread but it answers your question.

https://portfoliocharts.com/2019/05/27/ ... convexity/

tchoupitoulas

Tyler from PortfolioCharts (I believe that's his name) has a new article out today about "bond convexity." I had never heard of this concept so I learned a ton. Helps explain the volatility of long bonds and, of particular relevance to this strategy, why they can be a good investment even ...

tchoupitoulas

I am a Betterment customer and am happy with it. Here are the reasons I think it is worthwhile to pay them a 25 bps management fee: 1) Tax loss harvesting. I realize this isn't super relevant for you since you don't have taxable investments. I've been an investor with them since 2014 and in that tim...

tchoupitoulas

This one: https://www.walmart.com/ip/Cosco-Scenera-Next-DLX-Convertible-Car-Seat-Moon-Mist/41126745 The Cosco Scenera. We bought it just for air travel. It's cheap and light. We use it to drive around on vacation but have a more premium one that weighs a ton for home. I would recommend also getting ...

tchoupitoulas

Electronic stability control is a big deal, and when I was shopping for a used car a few years ago I wouldn't consider one that didn't have it. The NHTSA began requiring that all cars have it in model year 2012, although many models had it before then. Estimates from regulators were that it would sa...

tchoupitoulas

I do not think we are at peak FI yet because I think there are structural changes in our economy that are helping drive the FIRE movement (to the extent that there is one). Keynes thought that with efficiency gains we would only have to work 15 hours a week. Somehow that never happened. Instead it s...

tchoupitoulas

I paid $3k on my credit card for each of the two cars we own. Paid the rest by check. In both cases the dealer wouldn't let me pay more than $3k on the credit card (would have loved to put the whole thing on there).

tchoupitoulas

There are many important resources on this and you're doing the right thing asking these questions before you buy. 1)Are Flood insurance costs built into the Common charges of the condo building? ---I believe it depends on the building but you should absolutely ask. And figure out exactly what would...

tchoupitoulas

OP is exhibiting an extreme case of hedonic adaptation. Here's an idea: take the bus or ride your bike for a month, then come back and tell me that your Subaru is "too uncomfortable to drive." If that sounds too spartan, go on a camping trip. I find that they help reset my internal clock o...

tchoupitoulas

I'm kind of amazed by the responses so far. Here's a relatively young couple with no debt and a mid-six-figure net worth earning enough to have $3,000 extra cash left over at the end of every month and people are acting like they are Thelma and Louise speeding towards some sort of financial cliff. S...

tchoupitoulas

I took Amtrak from New York to San Francisco with my mom and brother a few years ago. We loved it. That route is the California Zephyr. The one you would be doing is the Empire Builder, which is supposed to be just as beautiful (possibly more). They time the schedules so that you are going through t...

tchoupitoulas

I bought a used Leaf in January and agree with everything that's been said. Since it's our second car and my commute is only ~6 miles each way the range was just never an issue for me. Mine is a 2015 and as others have said, the prices for a lightly used one are fantastic.

tchoupitoulas

I've tried Blue Apron and was a Plated user for about six months. As others have noted, all these services offer promotions, so you can string together a bunch of them and spend a good chunk of time seeing whether it's for you without much if any financial outlay. I didn't have any trouble cancellin...

tchoupitoulas

I read through this thread intending to post Tyler's great analysis from PortfolioCharts, since it just showed up in my inbox, but I see he's already posted it himself. One big question in my mind, Tyler, is whether the performance results you're working with are net of fees. As others have mentione...

tchoupitoulas

I would not mind a service that did very basic rebalancing and TLHs, maybe tax optimization based on your preferences, and that was it. I think this would best be offered by a broker like Vanguard/Schwab/Fidelity since they'd make revenue off both the ETFs (presumably theirs which I would be fine w...

tchoupitoulas

I also own a Brompton and love it deeply. I've owned mine since 2009 and have used it to commute in NYC, San Francisco, Washington DC, and Milwaukee. I also use it to buy groceries, pull my toddler in his trailer, and even go camping. My wife has one too. They are pricier than other options but the ...

tchoupitoulas

I agree with Phil. I've read threads going back years that have dismissed low vol as overbought, and yet when I run XSLV through the factor regression tools on portfoliovisualizer it shows up as significantly more "valuey" than many of the value ETFs people here like to own (VBR in particu...

tchoupitoulas

Try portfoliocharts.com It is an awesome website full of great data visualizations built by a guy who is annoyed by many of the problems being raised on this thread in response to your post- returns being dependent on which period you selected, people acting as if "starting" at a given tim...

tchoupitoulas

I'll offer another endorsement of Upton tea imports. They have an amazing selection. In fact, the selection is so vast it can be almost bewildering. When I am feeling that way I order from Adagio or Harney and Sons, but I do think Upton offers the best bang for your buck.

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