Search found 28 matches

by PuddlesTheDuck
Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds against Renaissance Medallion Fund if Efficient Markets Hypothesis is valid?
Replies: 17
Views: 1021

Re: Odds against Renaissance Medallion Fund if Efficient Markets Hypothesis is valid?

Challenge to statisticians: If markets are 100%, or 95%, or 90% "efficient", can you compute the odds against Renaissance Medallion Fund posting these annual returns since 1988? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-21/how-renaissance-s-medallion-fund-became-finance-s-blackest-box From a ...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Tue Oct 17, 2017 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overselling of international diversification
Replies: 45
Views: 3601

Re: The overselling of international diversification

What about international bonds? Is there a correlation with US bonds? DMW The correlation appears to be the same as the correlation between US stocks and Non-US stocks I didn't spend too much time, but this is an alright table I found (though having no dates on it makes it not super useful): https:...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1854
Views: 1124872

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

I’ve read through a good part of this thread and some other ones and it seems Boglegeads have a serious aversion to international bonds, especially in this thread. If we believe in the value of diversification (which I hope we do) and believe in dicersification via international exposure (which I kn...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Thu Oct 12, 2017 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6807

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

Slippery slope switching asset classes. If you time your AA between US vs non-US and Developed vs Emerging, why not Growth vs Value? Consumer Staples vs Discretionary? Healthcare vs Biotech? Financials vs Technology? Small-cap vs Value vs Small-cap Value? Whether you call it timing or tilt, it all ...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding What Makes Vanguard So Successful
Replies: 12
Views: 1877

Re: Understanding What Makes Vanguard So Successful

I'm grumpy today, so maybe this will come off as overly harsh. This reads as an incredibly lazy article to me. Vanguard has a HUGE price advantage because it has no outside shareholders and the author glosses over that as some kind of "company culture" phenomenon. There are no incentives for it to c...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Thu Oct 12, 2017 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6807

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

I can't speak for other posters but I posted here that I had doubled my international equity exposure in late 2016 early 2017, because international equity returns over prior 10 years were so poor when compared to US equity returns. There are no certainties in life but I couldn't ignore such a long...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% in bond to wait for market crash?
Replies: 122
Views: 11663

Re: 100% in bond to wait for market crash?

Quoting your three responses that include reasoning for exiting equities (if I missed one, I apologize). Your entire reasoning that I've seen is that the current market PE ratio is high. That's not really a reasonable position. Hopefully some people here have calmed you down, but I'll try my hand, a...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time Value of Money (Young Investors)
Replies: 29
Views: 1884

Re: Time Value of Money (Young Investors)

It’s sad for me when my daughter told me nobody her age expects to live till they retire. Such a bunch of pessimistic people she knows. Maybe that’s why they don’t want to invest and just lives at the moment. I don't know what age your daughter is, but I'm in my mid-20s and I became conscious of mo...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time Value of Money (Young Investors)
Replies: 29
Views: 1884

Re: Time Value of Money (Young Investors)

This should be drilled into their head in high school. I think what you've said is important, but statements like this get me riled up. People need to know that compound interest matters, even if it's just a bank account making 1%. They have to know that if they always spend all that they make, the...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Tue Sep 26, 2017 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks
Replies: 46
Views: 4661

Re: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks

Garland, FYI, in case you haven't seen it, here is an article by Michael Kitces from a few years ago looking at CAEP 10: https://www.kitces.com/blog/shiller-cape-market-valuation-terrible-for-market-timing-but-valuable-for-long-term-retirement-planning/. The correlation between CAEP 10 and real ret...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Tue Sep 26, 2017 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternate investment strategies
Replies: 15
Views: 1935

Re: Alternate investment strategies

Ugh, the author doesn't even give a single example of what an alternative investment might be. The point of alternative investments isn't performance (assuming we're talking about precious metals, currencies, and commodities here), it's the fact that they're not correlated (or even negatively correl...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Colleague's portfolio
Replies: 4
Views: 359

Re: Help with Colleague's portfolio

If you're looking for historical efficient frontiers, https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/efficient-frontier is probably your best bet. Just remember that efficient frontier calculations almost always show that investing heavily in one thing would have been best. As for the question about fees, I do...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Sun Sep 24, 2017 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The real impacts of passive investing
Replies: 8
Views: 1981

Re: The real impacts of passive investing

The majority of all trading is HFT - rapid trading based on math algorithms and executed by computers. Only a tiny percentage of trading is for personal accounts. Citation? If HFT acts as a middleman in most transactions, it would still be less than 50%. There would have to be a quite a bit of trad...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Tue Sep 12, 2017 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ted Seides "Why I lost My Bet With Warren Buffett" - Bloomberg
Replies: 94
Views: 12104

Re: "Warren Buffett wins $1M bet made with hedgie a decade ago"

Reading through longbets page http://longbets.org/362/ , it seems pretty clear that people 10 years ago thought Buffet would win. We also should remember that it took 5 years for the S&P to push ahead, highlighting the risk associated with investing in stocks. I think this bet did a lot of good for ...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 218
Views: 27299

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

FYI: In case you haven't been paying attention like me, I just noticed AAPL is up 40% YTD. Not a popular choice amongst the amateur hedge fund managers here. Don't know if this is the same predilection among professionals, but it's well represented in the index funds and popular with the public inv...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Market" Portfolio
Replies: 26
Views: 3128

Re: "The Market" Portfolio

I am looking at using Vanguard's Total Stock, Total Bond, Total International Stock, and Total International Bond Index funds. I had been thinking of putting 25% in each, but then it occurred to me... The reason we index is that we assume a certain amount of "markets are efficient," and we know tha...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with new employer 401K plans
Replies: 13
Views: 546

Re: Help with new employer 401K plans

I was planning to go really simple and just choose VTSNX (vanguard total international stock index) and VBTIX (vanguard total bond market index) OR VINIX (vanguard institutional index) and VBTIX (vanguard total bond market index) Those funds are very good choices. I was going to make my own post bu...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge Funds with vanilla strategies
Replies: 9
Views: 1274

Re: Hedge Funds with vanilla strategies

To start off, I probably can't name any hedge funds at all. So I couldn't give you any examples if that's what you're looking for. But just the name means that something called a hedge fund probably won't give you anything simple. They're called "hedge" funds because they are legally allowed to use ...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Mon Aug 28, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Riskier Bonds vis a vis AA
Replies: 33
Views: 2374

Re: Riskier Bonds vis a vis AA

"A fitting conclusion is this advice from David Swensen, the highly regarded chief investment officer of the Yale Endowment: 'Well-informed investors avoid the no-win consequences of high-yield fixed-income investing.'" http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-credit-risk-worth-it?...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Fri Aug 18, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly
Replies: 71
Views: 6924

Re: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly

Puddles the duck, I think smoothing volatilitynis a huge deal. It brings the geometric return of the portfolio closer to the average annual return of the portfolio components. We can only eat geometric returns. Minimizing volatility translates into real money. Dave In general I agree. However, earl...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Fri Aug 18, 2017 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly
Replies: 71
Views: 6924

Re: "The Three-Fund Portfolio"

Bogleheads: Every once in while I check the returns of 10 "Lazy Portfolios" designed by "experts" with the The Three-Fund Portfolio . More often than not, Allan Roth's Second Grader's Starter (3-fund) Portfolio leads the pack: http://www.marketwatch.com/lazyportfolio Best wishes Taylor Why own the ...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Fri Aug 18, 2017 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly
Replies: 71
Views: 6924

Re: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly

Bigbonds, I actually do believe I see and understand your point of view. I'm equally sure you don't understand mine. I was an ardent TSM Boglehead proud of ultra low expense ratios for almost a decade. As I learned more, I came to view diversification in a different way: diversification across type...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Wed Aug 16, 2017 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly
Replies: 71
Views: 6924

Re: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly

I recently increased my emerging markets allocation by quite a bit. I felt they would be more likely to operate in parts of the world I may not be exposed to with my developed world funds. Maybe this was the right move, maybe not. I'll definitely be reading that paper Larry linked on mononational co...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Wed Aug 16, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going passive is an active decision
Replies: 32
Views: 2647

Re: Going passive is an active decision

We make active decisions all the time. When we tweak our stock/bond allocation, we're being active. When we pick what our international allocation is going to be, that's an active decision. When I pick Vanguard's Total Bond Index Fund and it includes no junk bonds, that was an active decision in con...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs a disappointment, yet still useful
Replies: 20
Views: 3148

Re: REITs a disappointment, yet still useful

True, but a lot of that can be explained by the "in a crisis, correlations move to 1" truism. If you go further back, you'll see the correlation tends to hover around 0.5 and indeed, since 2012 the correlation has more or less returned to normal. This time, the economic crisis was also a real estat...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Fri Jan 20, 2017 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Year in Alternative Funds: A Bumpy Road With Some Bright Spots"
Replies: 21
Views: 2651

Re: "The Year in Alternative Funds: A Bumpy Road With Some Bright Spots"

Bogleheads: We must not forget Mr. Bogle's wisdom: " An extra percentage point of standard deviation is meaningless, but an extra percentage point of return is priceless ." Best wishes Taylor I find this one-liner confusing at best, and obviously false at worst. Reducing standard deviatio...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Thu Jan 05, 2017 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is Iphone/Ipad fingerprint signin reasonably secure?
Replies: 57
Views: 4966

Re: Is Iphone/Ipad fingerprint signin reasonably secure?

It is reasonably secure, yes. Although you could come across someone with the same (or close enough) fingerprints to your own (your natural enemy), using the fingerprint reader on your phone/computer/briefcase/whatever is advantageous for two reasons: [*]You don't have to type your password. This me...
by PuddlesTheDuck
Thu Jan 05, 2017 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 218
Views: 27299

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Many Puddles Fund

Long
AMZN
BRK.B
FSLR

Short
GPRO
TWTR
WFC