Search found 779 matches

by sean.mcgrath
Sun Sep 10, 2023 1:11 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2023!
Replies: 314
Views: 86620

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2023!

swr wrote: Fri Sep 08, 2023 6:41 pm Officially gave my notice; Mrs and I are both heading to the pasture December 31st.
Little sad, excited, relieved, nervous and a few other emotions. Overall its time and we are ready for the next chapter especially with our first grandchild due in March; better go and buy a pony !
Cheers to all retired and soon to be.
Lovely! As far as I can tell, you are the first BH retiree whose plan is to buy a pony! :sharebeer
by sean.mcgrath
Sun Sep 10, 2023 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads has its work cut out for it [Benzinga financial news]
Replies: 23
Views: 4108

Re: Bogleheads has its work cut out for it [Benzinga financial news]

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Fri Sep 08, 2023 4:07 pm
sean.mcgrath wrote: Fri Sep 08, 2023 7:24 am [Title clarified. Moderator Pops1860]

Just read this from Benzinga: "The average holding period for a stock in the U.S. is just 10 months, down from 5 years back in the 1970s, according to data from eToro."
is this a secret article?

If not, why wouldn't you link the article so we can read it ourselves and analyze the context, etc.?
Yeah, sorry. I thought I had mentioned: I got it from the IB news feature. As far as I can tell, you can't link to it.
by sean.mcgrath
Fri Sep 08, 2023 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads has its work cut out for it [Benzinga financial news]
Replies: 23
Views: 4108

Re: Bogleheads has its work cut out for it

livesoft wrote: Fri Sep 08, 2023 7:27 am I guess one way to read your post is that Bogleheads has to work harder on you to sell more of your investments, right?
I meant on spreading the word about buy and hold.
Tamalak wrote: Fri Sep 08, 2023 7:33 am Average is a deceptive word. If 1% of traders out there are machines that juggle stocks non stop, that is going to crush the average even if 99% of traders are bogleheads.
Yes, you might be right that it simply reflects automated trading. The article mentioned retail investors, but indeed the statistic doesn't.
by sean.mcgrath
Fri Sep 08, 2023 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads has its work cut out for it [Benzinga financial news]
Replies: 23
Views: 4108

Bogleheads has its work cut out for it [Benzinga financial news]

[Title clarified. Moderator Pops1860]

Just read this from Benzinga: "The average holding period for a stock in the U.S. is just 10 months, down from 5 years back in the 1970s, according to data from eToro."

That is somewhat depressing. Last month I sold a bond fund, because US tax reporting was too much of a pain. It's only the second time that I have sold since high school, forty years ago.
by sean.mcgrath
Fri Sep 08, 2023 7:15 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2023!
Replies: 314
Views: 86620

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2023!

Everyone also asks "What are you going to do?" I kind of dislike this lazy question. That really says it best; it really is a lazy question. I've been asked that in exactly those words from just a couple of people, and while perhaps it comes down more to the way in which they asked the question, it often feels like their implication is that there's nothing else to do, or that you're not old enough to be doing this yet. Maybe it's all of those subtle and emotional things woven in between the words, or maybe it's just a boring and lazy question. At any rate, I've got a good answer ready which is truthful but also doesn't get so specific that it can be picked apart (which one person attempted to do, essentially implying that my inte...
by sean.mcgrath
Fri Sep 08, 2023 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Retirement Age Distribution
Replies: 50
Views: 8382

Re: Boglehead Retirement Age Distribution

David Jay wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2023 10:23 am
Sandtrap wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2023 8:54 am Thanks for your efforts to chart this and post.

At least on retirement age, I'm in the "greater part of the bell curve" for "bogleheads". :D :D
Interesting. . . .

Aloha
j :D
I am part of the mode (62). This may be the first time in my life I have been anywhere near the middle of any bell-curve. I tend to be an outlier, if you know what I mean... :wink:
I am dead-on median (the day after my 59th birthday). :happy

I just spent a weekend in London with a number of ex-colleagues, and to my surprise three are now thinking about early retirement as well. I shared my guiding principal that it only makes sense when the last kid is out of the house, and I believe I gained some converts.
by sean.mcgrath
Tue Aug 08, 2023 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you invest in a fund class that took money from shareholders who died and gave it to those remaining?
Replies: 18
Views: 2913

Re: Would you invest in a fund class that took money from shareholders who died and gave it to those remaining?

I'd have to think through the details but, yes, I would like something like that. Something as a backstop in case I live to 100, that would still let me spend more now. I'd go for something that started paying at around 85, maybe targeting a certain inflation adjusted amount. Maybe, after the last person dies, have the rest divided up among everyone's heirs. I don't want to get rich like a tontine, but to have a backstop.

I wouldn't care about the others' health histories -- just assume everyone is healthy.

In principle it would be better to have an insurance company do it and make it perpetual. Probably difficult to implement, though.
by sean.mcgrath
Tue Jul 04, 2023 1:47 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2023!
Replies: 314
Views: 86620

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2023!

Off to Wales on Sunday for a five day walk with my wife in the hills and a weekend at a monastery. A good start for new adventures. So much for Wales -- my wife broke her foot two days before the trip. :( Oh well, clean break, should completely heal, and there'll be other trips. It turns out that retirement is cooking (for the first time in almost forty years) and taking care of the household. Funny enough, it is a non-issue: I keep thinking about how much of a nightmare this would have been if I were still traveling every other week. Instead, it is completely stress free. :sharebeer Oh yikes! But at least it was before the trip - and you didn't have to carry her all over Wales :mrgreen: Curious minds would like to know how your cooking is...
by sean.mcgrath
Wed Jun 21, 2023 3:57 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2023!
Replies: 314
Views: 86620

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2023!

sean.mcgrath wrote: Wed May 31, 2023 1:11 pm Off to Wales on Sunday for a five day walk with my wife in the hills and a weekend at a monastery. A good start for new adventures.
So much for Wales -- my wife broke her foot two days before the trip. :(

Oh well, clean break, should completely heal, and there'll be other trips. It turns out that retirement is cooking (for the first time in almost forty years) and taking care of the household. Funny enough, it is a non-issue: I keep thinking about how much of a nightmare this would have been if I were still traveling every other week. Instead, it is completely stress free.

:sharebeer
by sean.mcgrath
Wed Jun 21, 2023 3:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best ETFs for shorting: IB Stock yield enhancement
Replies: 61
Views: 5904

Re: Best ETFs for shorting: IB Stock yield enhancement

Hi Sean, That has been my personal experience. Shocked that dividend (subject to long term capital gain) became interest (taxed as income). Therefore I withdrew from the program. :oops: I went back to check the rules (link: https://gdcdyn.interactivebrokers.com/Universal/servlet/Registration_v2.formSampleView?formdb=4161) Potential Adverse Tax Consequences When you lend your Fully-Paid Securities You are entitled to receive the amount of all dividends and distributions made on or in respect of the loaned securities. However, these cash payments may be considered by interactivebrokers.com "in lieu of" dividends. If you are a U.S. taxpayer, cash payments in lieu of dividends do not qualify for the same tax treatment as ‘qualified d...
by sean.mcgrath
Thu Jun 01, 2023 1:33 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: US citizen in Germany seeking portfolio advice
Replies: 55
Views: 7545

Re: US citizen in Germany seeking portfolio advice

No, you can't. What I meant was that (following the posts above), you could open the account and buy and sell shares until you qualified for professional. I don't know whether this would actually work / how strict IB is in judging, but it does seem to follow the rules. My English must be getting bad 'buy and sell shares until X' means you buy and sell and later X happens, no? I think the confusion comes from buy/sell what. I was referencing: BRK is ok if you don't have other options. I think IB offers fractional shares. But probably any German broker will allow you to buy BRK (perhaps with a higher fee) It's an interesting world when they don't ask a KIID for individual stocks but they do for index etfs. You don't even need a German broker...
by sean.mcgrath
Wed May 31, 2023 1:11 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2023!
Replies: 314
Views: 86620

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2023!

It looks for real this time: resignation letter submitted, successor on board, one retirement dinner down, two to go. For the first time in memory, my work e-mail inbox is empty. June 1st is indeed the date. Wow! What an exciting time! And three retirement dinners :shock: you must be a very important employee! Well, so much for that - now you're really going to get started on the most pleasurable part of your life, reaping all the benefits of all that work, and btw, thanks for all the semiconductors :D I've been thinking about that as well -- either I was valued, or they are very happy to see the last of me! :shock: Anyway, it's all done now and it was very nice. Picked up in a '62 Bentley and off to the office for the farewell BBQ. Stunni...
by sean.mcgrath
Wed May 31, 2023 4:33 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: US citizen in Germany seeking portfolio advice
Replies: 55
Views: 7545

Re: US citizen in Germany seeking portfolio advice

BRK is ok if you don't have other options. I think IB offers fractional shares. But probably any German broker will allow you to buy BRK (perhaps with a higher fee) It's an interesting world when they don't ask a KIID for individual stocks but they do for index etfs. You don't even need a German broker. You can open an IB account (Ireland) as non-professional, and buy/sell from there until you apply as professional. Can you buy an American ETF from a non-professional IB account in Ireland? This contradicts some statements above No, you can't. What I meant was that (following the posts above), you could open the account and buy and sell shares until you qualified for professional. I don't know whether this would actually work / how strict I...
by sean.mcgrath
Wed May 10, 2023 11:52 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2023!
Replies: 314
Views: 86620

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2023!

I just looked back at my 2022 post -- promise it's for real this time! Please pencil me in for June 1st. Age: 59 (both of us) Finances look more than fine. I've been planning this for quite a while: travel, more time at our cottage in Michigan, sailing in Greece and the Great Lakes. It's good that travel is back -- we haven't been to our cottage for three (!) years. Also, my wife has started a business to produce and distribute a board game that she designed (she has made many over the years). The next few years will see me helping out and having fun together on that adventure. OK sean! We penciled you in for your new date, new year - it's ok, you can come back as often as you want to enjoy hearing those magical words: "Welcome to the...
by sean.mcgrath
Wed May 10, 2023 11:22 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: US citizen in Germany seeking portfolio advice
Replies: 55
Views: 7545

Re: US citizen in Germany seeking portfolio advice

international001 wrote: Tue Apr 25, 2023 6:10 pm BRK is ok if you don't have other options.

I think IB offers fractional shares. But probably any German broker will allow you to buy BRK (perhaps with a higher fee)

It's an interesting world when they don't ask a KIID for individual stocks but they do for index etfs.
You don't even need a German broker. You can open an IB account (Ireland) as non-professional, and buy/sell from there until you apply as professional.
by sean.mcgrath
Sat Dec 10, 2022 8:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Former employer asked if I want to return to work there part-time
Replies: 224
Views: 18054

Re: Former employer asked if I want to return to work there part-time

nitro4214 wrote: Fri Dec 09, 2022 9:13 pm I suppose I could just quit if they started expecting more from me than I'd be willing to give, but they would likely not take that too well and I would not be able to rely on them for a reference. Turning them down (or demanding too much) could probably do that as well.
I would be very surprised if this were true. If you turn them down in a professional way, it should not impact a reference at some point, especially if you had good relations with the management. People will put pressure on you to accept if they are in a bind, but once the clear, professional 'no' is given, they will move on.

Fwiw, reading your thoughts on the subject, I would pass as well.
by sean.mcgrath
Fri Dec 09, 2022 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long could you live off your portfolio if the worst happened?
Replies: 152
Views: 21428

Re: How long could you live off your portfolio if the worst happened?

Pete12 wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:01 am Having read all the responses so far it generally seems that Bogleheads are well prepared. I still have some work to do but hope to get there!
It really depends on your age. We're 58 and could continue indefinitely under your rules. Even maintaining current spend until 85, we'd probably manage indefinitely. In reality we'd probably cut back some to leave a bit to the kids.
by sean.mcgrath
Fri Dec 09, 2022 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long could you live off your portfolio if the worst happened?
Replies: 152
Views: 21428

Re: How long could you live off your portfolio if the worst happened?

TomatoTomahto wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 10:29 am
Stock market permanently declines 50% and does not recover
What happens to bonds? Inflation?
And can I sell real estate that I don't live in?
by sean.mcgrath
Fri Dec 09, 2022 7:56 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: US in Europe: brokerage in another jurisdiction?
Replies: 4
Views: 976

Re: US in Europe: brokerage in another jurisdiction?

I'm always looking for ways that a US citizen in the US can invest in ETFs without running afoul of US or EU impediments. I happened to read a post about a brokerage in HK which got me thinking: are there any competent jurisdictions where one could purchase US exchange ETFs which don't care about your residence status? Not really an issue for me, as I have a solution. But I do keep poking around to try and find a potential solution for our children. Cheers, Sean Do you mean in the EU? I mean a brokerage account in a country not in the EU or US. I'm sure there's something to this, but I don't see it---why wouldn't a US citizen in the US just use a US broker? I misunderstood your question. I had not noticed my typo, thanks (fixed now). The p...
by sean.mcgrath
Wed Dec 07, 2022 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luggage Recommendations
Replies: 39
Views: 5408

Re: Luggage Recommendations

I will take a look. And while there are quite a few "don't check luggage posts" on here, when you have a wife and 4 kids, that's a tough sell. We absolutely overpack and I lose my mind. There is a balance between 8 checked bags and "nobody gets more than a backpack". I actually think there is a lot of room to optimize our backpack situation. If I were to take 6 fully loaded backpacks and 2 Checked pieces of luggage, that would be a major win. Our backpacks are probably too small, crappy, and lightly packed. I hear you. Tbh, when we traveled with three kids there was only one of us following the 'one bag philosophy.' :-p I would also go nuts on the over-packing, and even traveling with family I found the one bag world mi...
by sean.mcgrath
Wed Dec 07, 2022 11:09 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: US in Europe: brokerage in another jurisdiction?
Replies: 4
Views: 976

Re: US in Europe: brokerage in another jurisdiction?

EddyB wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 11:05 am
sean.mcgrath wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 8:58 am I'm always looking for ways that a US citizen in the US can invest in ETFs without running afoul of US or EU impediments. I happened to read a post about a brokerage in HK which got me thinking: are there any competent jurisdictions where one could purchase US exchange ETFs which don't care about your residence status?

Not really an issue for me, as I have a solution. But I do keep poking around to try and find a potential solution for our children.

Cheers,
Sean
Do you mean in the EU?
I mean a brokerage account in a country not in the EU or US.
by sean.mcgrath
Wed Dec 07, 2022 9:10 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: US domiciled ETFs that are UK HMRC reporting funds
Replies: 13
Views: 2256

Re: US domiciled ETFs that are UK HMRC reporting funds

Assuming you do want to buy US funds that don't publish a PFIC, there are a few workarounds: 1. Use a US brokerage and don't tell them you live in the UK/EU 2. Become an elective professional investor, so you're allowed to take on the "risk" of ignoring the retail investor protections, like the need for a KID 3. Find a brokerage that doesn't care about the KID rules - I've heard reports that some of the newer, FinTech-style brokers choose not to care, and possibly some US brokerages don't care/are ignorant enough not to care. 4. Use options on US ETFs and exercise them to get the underlying funds. For reasons that are bizarre to me, you need a KID to buy the US ETF, but not to buy options on the fund, even though options are clea...
by sean.mcgrath
Wed Dec 07, 2022 8:58 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: US in Europe: brokerage in another jurisdiction?
Replies: 4
Views: 976

US in Europe: brokerage in another jurisdiction?

I'm always looking for ways that a US citizen in the EU [not US as originally posted] can invest in ETFs without running afoul of US or EU impediments. I happened to read a post about a brokerage in HK which got me thinking: are there any competent jurisdictions where one could purchase US exchange ETFs which don't care about your residence status?

Not really an issue for me, as I have a solution. But I do keep poking around to try and find a potential solution for our children.

Cheers,
Sean

EDIT: fixed typo.
by sean.mcgrath
Tue Dec 06, 2022 7:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luggage Recommendations
Replies: 39
Views: 5408

Re: Luggage Recommendations

Ok, not what you asked for, but here's my approach (I am a very frequent flyer: in '19 I had eighteen trips to other continents, and another eight within Europe).

Take a look at one bag world. Very worth thinking about a travel philosophy. Now, for 90% of my trips I use their featured Red Oxx Air Boss, and recommend it.
by sean.mcgrath
Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how many use buckets?
Replies: 80
Views: 7319

Re: how many use buckets?

When I first finished graduate school and started my job, I used the envelope method to segregate money for lumpy expenses. My envelopes were used to prepay expenses outside of routine daily expenses and savings. I had envelopes for car expenses to include maintenance and more importantly , to accumulate money for the next car purchase. There was an envelope for insurance premiums. There was an envelope for vacations. There was an envelope for home repairs. Three was an envelope for gifts. There were a couple of other categories I don t recall. This system allowed us to pay cash for everything but our house, with no borrowing. Using the same philosophy of taking your savings out of your paycheck before addressing expenses, I took our futur...
by sean.mcgrath
Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how many use buckets?
Replies: 80
Views: 7319

Re: how many use buckets?

I don't use buckets or budgets. Just developing a strong habit of saving has worked fine.
by sean.mcgrath
Sat Dec 03, 2022 1:09 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Exploitation of pre-determined forex exchange rate EUR.USD [Germany]
Replies: 7
Views: 1060

Re: Exploitation of pre-determined forex exchange rate EUR.USD [Germany]

1. Situation a. I am paid a fixed amount X of money in USD at the end of each month Y. b. I can choose X to be paid either in USD or EUR and have to do this choosing until the 20th of each month Y. c. If I choose to be paid in EUR the exchange rate EUR.USD Z is already pre-determined at the first of month Y, therefore roughly one month prior to being paid. 2. Assumptions a. I have an exploitable information, since the exchange rate EUR.USD continuously -including the time from the first to the 20th the of each month Y- moves up or down as compared to the rate pre-determined at the first of month Y according to which I will be paid at the end of the month and via clever trading I can gain as per below. 3. Exploitation a. If the EUR goes up ...
by sean.mcgrath
Fri Nov 25, 2022 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of Health Risk: AKA What Age is it Worth Planning For a Full Life To?
Replies: 73
Views: 9289

Re: Sequence of Health Risk: AKA What Age is it Worth Planning For a Full Life To?

Most people stop really enjoying and living their life well before they die. Happiness studies disagree with you. I'd be a bit careful rationalizing 'spend it now' on this sort of hand waving. So The BIG Question is... What age is it worth planning living a full life to? How old have the people in your life enjoyed a full life to? You're mixing up 'doing the same things you enjoyed at 40' with 'living a full life.' My own model is indeed that spend will go down later in retirement, although I also expect to spend 25% more than pre-retirement in my early years. I tend to agree with the 'no need for 100% success rate.' In your case, I would personally model: early years, +25% of pre. After age 80, 50% of pre, and go for a 95% success rate.
by sean.mcgrath
Tue Nov 22, 2022 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Funded Ratio Offers a Glimmer of Hope in 2022
Replies: 72
Views: 7683

Re: Funded Ratio Offers a Glimmer of Hope in 2022

My question remains: what is actionable for me with a 90% equities portfolio? (do realize that this is a theoretical question. I am at 50x assets to spend with an enormous amount of discretionary, and I have not even retired yet.). It does feel that if the funded ratio changes, my view of my assets should change, but I suspect that it doesn't. Can you enlighten, or do I need to frame the question better? alex_686 has answered your question well IMO, but here is my stab at it using different words. The FR is in a sense a measure of your retirement income risk. If you are well below 1.0 and near retirement you are obviously at risk of falling short of your retirement income goal or target. But OTOH if you are near retirement and above 1.0 yo...
by sean.mcgrath
Tue Nov 22, 2022 5:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Finally Making the Video Doorbell Plunge - Ring or Blink
Replies: 32
Views: 4812

Re: Finally Making the Video Doorbell Plunge - Ring or Blink

lthenderson wrote: Tue Nov 22, 2022 9:58 am I also am allergic to monthly fees. My PoE camera system saves three weeks of continuous data to an HVR and between it and three other cameras, they cover the entrance, sidewalk, entire driveway and back doors to my house.
And what product do you use?
by sean.mcgrath
Tue Nov 22, 2022 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Funded Ratio Offers a Glimmer of Hope in 2022
Replies: 72
Views: 7683

Re: Funded Ratio Offers a Glimmer of Hope in 2022

All that is saying is that to be conservative one should use the TIPs rate as their expected returns. Sure, that is a reasonable position to take. But, that does not change the fact that you are still making use of expected returns. No it is not saying that. If you want to hit your income goal with high probability you need to use the risk-free rate to discount your liabilities. The discount factor comes into play on the liabilities side – the PV of your targeted retirement income stream. A basic principle of finance is that if you want to hit a financial target with high probability, in this case your targeted retirement income stream goal, then the discount rate applied to those liabilities must be safe. This has nothing to do with the p...
by sean.mcgrath
Tue Nov 22, 2022 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Funded Ratio Offers a Glimmer of Hope in 2022
Replies: 72
Views: 7683

Re: Funded Ratio Offers a Glimmer of Hope in 2022

However, related to dknight's post: I understand how this would be true if on those two dates I retired and put all of my money into appropriate-duration treasuries. How does this affect me if (as is the case) I am 90% equities? Is it sort of like a CAPE argument, that I can expect higher real interest rates in the coming years? While asset values are lower than the beginning of the year, expected returns for stocks and bonds are now higher. Thanks, Horton. Yes, I meant to type "higher real returns." It makes sense; I do think it is another way of stating the CAPE argument. I'm not sure that it's actionable, though: it seems like it would morph into market timing. Not necessarily. The expected return for stocks can be expressed, ...
by sean.mcgrath
Tue Nov 22, 2022 8:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Finally Making the Video Doorbell Plunge - Ring or Blink
Replies: 32
Views: 4812

Re: Finally Making the Video Doorbell Plunge - Ring or Blink

I'm allergic to monthly fees and went with Ezviz and no cloud storage. I recommend it. I haven't tried, but it claims to work with Alexa.

Edit: wow, it's on sale for $39.
by sean.mcgrath
Tue Nov 22, 2022 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Funded Ratio Offers a Glimmer of Hope in 2022
Replies: 72
Views: 7683

Re: Funded Ratio Offers a Glimmer of Hope in 2022

Horton wrote: Tue Nov 22, 2022 8:06 am
sean.mcgrath wrote: Tue Nov 22, 2022 8:01 am However, related to dknight's post: I understand how this would be true if on those two dates I retired and put all of my money into appropriate-duration treasuries. How does this affect me if (as is the case) I am 90% equities? Is it sort of like a CAPE argument, that I can expect higher real interest rates in the coming years?
While asset values are lower than the beginning of the year, expected returns for stocks and bonds are now higher.
Thanks, Horton. Yes, I meant to type "higher real returns."

It makes sense; I do think it is another way of stating the CAPE argument. I'm not sure that it's actionable, though: it seems like it would morph into market timing.
by sean.mcgrath
Tue Nov 22, 2022 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Funded Ratio Offers a Glimmer of Hope in 2022
Replies: 72
Views: 7683

Re: Funded Ratio Offers a Glimmer of Hope in 2022

BobK has been a long proponent of using the funded ratio for retirement planning. 2022 has been a tough year for bonds and stocks alike. The Vanguard LifeStrategy Conservative Growth Fund (VSCGX) is down about 17% YTD as of today. On the surface, it seems like this would be a significant blow to a 65-year old retiree, but let's see what the funded ratio says. First, let's use BobK's funded ratio definition: FR = portfolio/PV(liabilities) The value of the portfolio is straight forward. The value of the liabilities is debatable, particularly the discount rate used to determine the liabilities. For the sake of illustration, I'm going to use the Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve Rates to determine the liability because they represent the ris...
by sean.mcgrath
Tue Nov 22, 2022 7:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need help deciding when to sell 40% of portfolio
Replies: 17
Views: 1870

Re: Need help deciding when to sell 40% of portfolio

Is there any benefit to selling now at a slight discount (trading around $42 CAD now) instead of waiting to capture the guaranteed $44 or higher? The benefit is that you get to lock in $42 today. The stock would go a lot lower should the deal fall through. Your upside is capped at $44 though, I don't see how it'd go higher. The upside isn't capped at $44 because if another party puts in a competing bid, the price will increase. Meanwhile, the company is still paying out dividends. But the real upside might be that if the acquisition fails, I get to keep the stock and to buy more. I will probably be voting against this $44 cash offer and maybe other owners will too. $44 is barely above the book value per share of a company whose assets are ...
by sean.mcgrath
Fri Nov 18, 2022 5:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Burned out - looking for better childcare
Replies: 123
Views: 10140

Re: Burned out - looking for better childcare

There are millions of families in a similar situation with a lot less income than you who also have to figure out how to make it work. But you have the advantage of having enough money to pay for more/other help. Why are you saving $136k in taxable a year when you already have a high net worth? That amount is twice the average household income in the US. Use some of it to get you though the expensive pre-K years. I would look for a live-in nanny who would work only for you. His/her emphasis would be on taking care of the kids, with some household tasks in the background like kitchen tasks only (cooking and cleaning up after meals). Try to get some work hours that overlap so that you’re left with personal time that overlaps with each other....
by sean.mcgrath
Sat Nov 12, 2022 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good Thanksgiving Ideas
Replies: 39
Views: 4098

Re: Good Thanksgiving Ideas

Kagord wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:27 pm I always liked getting a local fresh turkey gift cert from work. I don't think many places do this any more.
Somehow, this brought back WKRP. :-o
by sean.mcgrath
Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good Thanksgiving Ideas
Replies: 39
Views: 4098

Re: Good Thanksgiving Ideas

A bit of a niche answer, Annette, but a turkey. :shock:

We have to drive to Germany to get a decent one!
by sean.mcgrath
Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:02 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: High Earners in Europe - What do you do for a living (and are there jobs with similar pay as in the US)?
Replies: 118
Views: 20004

Re: High Earners in Europe - What do you do for a living (and are there jobs with similar pay as in the US)?

Grüß dich, batman! As people mention, it is incredibly rare in the US as well. Typical > $300k jobs in MCOL areas of the US are: partners in law and accounting firms; specialists in medicine; top end consultants; top end jobs in finance and high tech; top management in public companies. They are extremely rare. In my experience, most of those (with the exception of medicine) also have extremely high salaries in Europe. E.g., Kanzleipartner oder erfahrene Anwälte verdienen mit bis zu 700.000 Euro jährlich. It is true that professional Americans earn more and usually have lower costs of living than equivalent Europeans (even than Austria, Germany, etc.), even taking health care and university into account. America is simply richer. However, h...
by sean.mcgrath
Sat Nov 12, 2022 10:31 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: P2P Lending - Europe
Replies: 29
Views: 4073

Re: P2P Lending - Europe

Those two platforms don't seem that good to me. Interest rates are relatively low, there's not much diversification as I mentioned already, and in general business loans perform worse than consumer ones, so I'd say the returns are not worth the risk with these platforms. What would be your favorite 2-3 platforms, hithere? That would be Iuvo, Estateguru, PeerBerry, and Viainvest. I'm currently investing with 12 platforms in total. Keep in mind that some fraction of platforms and loan originators will blow up - that's just the nature of this investment vehicle and there's not much to do about it besides diversification and good research, both of which help but to an extent. After accounting for these losses, one's return should still be dece...
by sean.mcgrath
Sat Nov 12, 2022 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Detective work on an early medicaid question
Replies: 31
Views: 2307

Re: Detective work on an early medicaid question

Apologies, I never closed the loop.

Everyone was correct, she had mistaken her COBRA charge for something else. Her COBRA is significantly less than $1,000 per month and she'll continue on that for now. Thanks all for the replies. They helped me to figure out the right questions, and her to discover that COBRA was an option after all.
by sean.mcgrath
Tue Nov 08, 2022 1:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Detective work on an early medicaid question
Replies: 31
Views: 2307

Re: Detective work on an early medicaid question

SuzBanyan wrote: Mon Nov 07, 2022 7:43 pm
sean.mcgrath wrote: Mon Nov 07, 2022 7:04 pm
Thanks. My understanding is she is asking me all of this because COBRA is running out, but I will check.
COBRA for a widowed spouse lasts for 36 months. Has it been that long since her spouse passed?
No, only about four months. One more thing for me to check.

Edit: I re-read her post. They had COBRA while he was ill (cancer) and his company paid for it. Now she would have to pay $3500 per month, so it's a money issue.

I have asked her to confirm that it's medicaid and to get a link or brochure showing the requirements for eligibility.

Thanks all! I'll post again once I have her feedback.
by sean.mcgrath
Mon Nov 07, 2022 7:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Detective work on an early medicaid question
Replies: 31
Views: 2307

Re: Detective work on an early medicaid question

Katietsu wrote: Mon Nov 07, 2022 7:08 pm A withdrawal from a traditional 401k does count as income. But that is not necessarily a bad thing. Many people would prefer a subsidized ACA plan over a medicaid plan. But all this depends on whether or not all her assets are pre-tax and how much she needs for her living expenses. Cobra is available for 3 years. But it might be that the employer provided coverage at low or no cost and now she would need to assume full payment.
Thanks, this is all very helpful.

I'm getting to feel that I need to tie her to a chair, shine a bright light and ask the tough questions. :-p

No worries, we'll get there. Thank you all for your patience.
by sean.mcgrath
Mon Nov 07, 2022 7:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Detective work on an early medicaid question
Replies: 31
Views: 2307

Re: Detective work on an early medicaid question

In addition to health coverage under the ACA or Medicaid, if he recently deceased husband was working, she may be entitled to continue the health insurance coverage from the employer under COBRA. This may not be the cheapest option, but continuing her existing coverage could give her some time to figure things out. What also struck me is a 57 year old widow who is inherited her husband’s retirement accounts. She will likely want to take those as inherited IRAs still under her husband’s name. She probably does not want to assume them and add the funds to her own retirement accounts, as this would prevent her from taking distributions from this accounts until she is 59.5. There is a new book written by a Bogleheads contributor that might be ...
by sean.mcgrath
Mon Nov 07, 2022 7:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Detective work on an early medicaid question
Replies: 31
Views: 2307

Re: Detective work on an early medicaid question

Nate79 wrote: Mon Nov 07, 2022 6:56 pm
sean.mcgrath wrote: Mon Nov 07, 2022 6:49 pm apologies all for the real-time nature of this. She seems to think that 410k counts as income. I can't imagine. Is this ever correct?
What do you mean "410k"? Do you mean 401k as an asset? If it is just sitting there then it is an asset but not income. Withdrawals from a 401k are ordinary income.
Thanks. I don't think she's doing that, but I will check.
by sean.mcgrath
Mon Nov 07, 2022 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Detective work on an early medicaid question
Replies: 31
Views: 2307

Re: Detective work on an early medicaid question

apologies all for the real-time nature of this. She seems to think that 410k counts as income. I can't imagine. Is this ever correct?
by sean.mcgrath
Mon Nov 07, 2022 6:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Detective work on an early medicaid question
Replies: 31
Views: 2307

Re: Detective work on an early medicaid question

Kenkat wrote: Mon Nov 07, 2022 6:02 pm She can’t qualify for Medicare until she is 65. She cannot receive widow benefits from social security until age 60 under most circumstances.

If she is working and has income, she may be able to get health insurance through the Affordable Care Act / ACA at healthcare.gov. If she is not working or her income is not high enough, she may qualify for Medicaid. Since she is in Michigan which has adopted Medicaid expansion under the ACA, there are no asset restrictions; it is strictly based on income. She should apply through the state for Medicaid coverage.
Thanks as always, Ken. Ok, assuming medicaid there is no asset test. I'll ask her why she thinks there is one.
by sean.mcgrath
Mon Nov 07, 2022 6:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Detective work on an early medicaid question
Replies: 31
Views: 2307

Re: Detective work on an early medicaid question

delamer wrote: Mon Nov 07, 2022 6:13 pm Is your friend employed?
At the moment, no.
by sean.mcgrath
Mon Nov 07, 2022 5:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Detective work on an early medicaid question
Replies: 31
Views: 2307

Re: Detective work on an early medicaid question

JoeRetire wrote: Mon Nov 07, 2022 5:40 pm
sean.mcgrath wrote: Mon Nov 07, 2022 4:51 pmShe wants to qualify for medicare (I assume this is as a widow?), but is worried about the requirements.
The other questions don't have enough detail. Most likely someone is just confused (Medicare? Medicaid?).

But for eligibility, she should read this: https://www.hhs.gov/answers/medicare-an ... index.html
Medicare has nothing to do with widowhood.
Thanks. I've asked her why she believes she qualifies.