Search found 154 matches

by desafinado
Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Overwhelmed by bond diversification strategies for young investor
Replies: 28
Views: 1065

Re: Overwhelmed by bond diversification strategies for young investor

Bonds at 24? No way. +1 To be honest, I've never understood this point of view unless people are doing a bucket thing where they don't count an emergency fund as part of your portfolio. Let's say you have a pretty fair size portfolio for a young age, 200k like OP. An emergency fund might still be s...
by desafinado
Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Go for new job (more pay but travel) or stay?
Replies: 65
Views: 3640

Re: Go for new job (more pay but travel) or stay?

Your profile says you are in California. Just get another job that pays 300k.
by desafinado
Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg: U.S. Weighs Selling 50- and 100-Year Bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 3589

Re: Bloomberg: U.S. Weighs Selling 50- and 100-Year Bonds

This is excellent news for young savers with long investment horizons. For someone in their 20s or 30s, 50+ year bonds (and maybe even 50 year TIPs ??) are just about the only bonds that can be used to fund late retirement now. Of course, there are already global government, corporate, and municipal...
by desafinado
Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quick (without looking) what do you think YTD total return of US Bond Index is?
Replies: 46
Views: 3849

Re: Quick (without looking) what do you think YTD total return of US Bond Index is?

petulant wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:31 pm
stlutz wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:32 pm
Should also add to the quiz: What hated (on BH) investment is outperforming all of the mentioned options this year?
Gold? :P
LTT
by desafinado
Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HCOL savings rates
Replies: 43
Views: 3429

Re: HCOL savings rates

I don't think it's wrong to call it 33k of spend but it's more like 80 or 90k of consumption given imputed rent. Kudos nonetheless!
by desafinado
Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap
Replies: 261
Views: 13623

Re: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap

I disagree completely. Let's say I have 50 businesses all making money and let's say I have two options: 1) Create a single large cap corporation to run all 50 businesses under one umbrella. 2) Create 50 separate small cap corporations. To me, corporate organization makes little difference in diver...
by desafinado
Fri Jun 21, 2019 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Discrepancy in international fund returns?
Replies: 8
Views: 449

Re: Discrepancy in international fund returns?

I was looking at this too because the VXUS share class was also up a little over 1%. I think it turns out that the daily rise yesterday just so happened to be equal to the q2 dividend of 32 cents per share, which seems to have been paid and reinvested in my roth yesterday, though not in taxable. Or ...
by desafinado
Fri May 31, 2019 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question regarding the phrase "smart money"
Replies: 23
Views: 1681

Re: Question regarding the phrase "smart money"

I've also heard people use "smart money" to refer to the options market, since you can roughly transform option prices into "the [options] market thinks there's a 10% chance of an earnings beat" or whatever.
by desafinado
Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VHT / XBI / XLV holders (healthcare)
Replies: 27
Views: 1883

Re: VHT / XBI / XLV holders (healthcare)

kinda seems like a good hedge against high future healthcare costs
by desafinado
Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone projecting a REALLY low SWR?
Replies: 24
Views: 1597

Re: Anyone projecting a REALLY low SWR?

I also think at the moment with valuations looking somewhat less attractive it's not an unreasonable time to direct cashflow towards deferred home maintenance and other significant purchases that might either increase qol or reduce required outflow later on.
by desafinado
Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When to quit feeding the pig?
Replies: 54
Views: 8044

Re: When to quit feeding the pig?

There's also more marginal tax-advantaged spaces that you may or may not have figured in already, and may or may not fit into your planning. 529s and I-Bonds are two examples if you think you might have education expenses later and are ok with the liquidity profiles of both.
by desafinado
Sat Feb 16, 2019 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ruminations on Taleb's "Antifragile" and its Applications to Retirement Income
Replies: 115
Views: 8426

Re: Ruminations on Taleb's "Antifragile" and its Applications to Retirement Income

Personally I'm pretty skeptical about LMP. It seems to me that most people can't afford to do it at 0.5% real yields and the people who can afford LMP portfolios don't need them. I'm sure there's a sweet spot where it makes sense to buy some SPIAs or have a few years in TIPs but even in a crisis I d...
by desafinado
Sun Jan 20, 2019 8:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What to do this weekend in Tokyo?
Replies: 19
Views: 1541

Re: What to do this weekend in Tokyo?

i haven't seen it mentioned here but i believe the pasmo card lets you use multiple rail operators. it can be purchased at the airport when you arrive. Shimokitazawa is another cool neighborhood that hasn't been mentioned yet. Sort of reminded me of Williamsburg, Brooklyn.
by desafinado
Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Never thought it would happen to me - life changing injury
Replies: 38
Views: 5441

Re: Never thought it would happen to me - life changing injury

Maybe I missed this but will you continue to get SSDI income after the settlement? That's a material amount of income relative to 3% swr on a 1.5m portfolio.
by desafinado
Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Going from 100-0 to 90-10 with bonds in taxable account
Replies: 15
Views: 1126

Re: Going from 100-0 to 90-10 with bonds in taxable account

for a relatively comparable tax situation/portfolio size i’m running 50/50 VYFXX/VNYTX for a synthetic intermediate muni in taxable. I might rejigger this in a couple years as absolute values change and i’ll have more space in tax deferred to hold all the bonds I want but so far I am reasonably happ...
by desafinado
Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: ROI calc on grocery expenses
Replies: 29
Views: 2001

Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

LookinAround wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:31 pm
Hmmm.. Is there a market for mac and cheese futures?
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricu ... heese.html
by desafinado
Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 29 Y.O. with a $60,000 bonus
Replies: 23
Views: 2777

Re: 29 Y.O. with a $60,000 bonus

2.) Put it in an ETF and set it aside. I plan on having $300,000 in an ETF by 2022. This fund will be set aside until my retirement (so, instead of contributing every year to retirement, I'll contribute a lot up front and then just enjoy the peace of mind :-) ) do you have access to a 401k at your ...
by desafinado
Mon Jan 07, 2019 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest
Replies: 36
Views: 1913

Re: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest

It has to do with the shape of the normal distribution (bell curve). Except for the minor detail that the normal distribution may not be a good model for the distribution of the S&P500 index. The logic (that the optimal bet is a cut-throat bet) would hold for all probability density functions that ...
by desafinado
Sun Jan 06, 2019 8:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do you think are (some of) the best states to live in?
Replies: 144
Views: 13619

Re: What do you think are (some of) the best states to live in?

Interestingly, I know a surprising amount of young people (former college classmates) who are moving to nashville. Our school is hundreds of miles away from nashville and other cities have tended to be bigger anchors, but it seems to offer lots of culture and some professional opportunities at a low...
by desafinado
Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10yr treasury < Fed Funds rate
Replies: 6
Views: 1170

Re: 10yr treasury < Fed Funds rate

I'm also curious about the spike in LIBOR/SOFR we've seen over the last few days of over 50 bps. Any insights?
by desafinado
Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will you contribute the max to your IRA and then invest it all in equities for the first market day of the new year?
Replies: 160
Views: 8946

Re: Will you contribute the max to your IRA and then invest it all in equities for the first market day of the new year?

I think I messed up and it will be a couple days before I can convert to roth. But it seems like as always I'll be buying lagging VTIAX.
by desafinado
Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 1020
Views: 278579

Re: Share your net worth progression

desafinado wrote:
Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:44 pm
2013: ~11k
2014: ~13k
2015: ~13k
2016: ~29k
2017: ~42k
2018 (started full time work): ~150k
by desafinado
Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone allocating more into International funds this year?
Replies: 28
Views: 1764

Re: Anyone allocating more into International funds this year?

Planning on staying ~55/45 but probably will frontload international a bit above that.
by desafinado
Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST [Entry deadline has passed]
Replies: 697
Views: 16867

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

2119.31

bonus prediction:
the italian bond spread will widen to 400 bps
by desafinado
Tue Jan 01, 2019 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds on next trade are 50-50 Bernstein: Against the Gods
Replies: 32
Views: 2910

Re: Odds on next trade are 50-50 Bernstein: Against the Gods

you could have intraday performance be a random walk such that trading is random, and earn all the risk premia overnight. but the 'trading is random' assumption ignores microstructure.
by desafinado
Sun Dec 30, 2018 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 930
Views: 238587

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

Rob, any update given rising rates and recent stock market volatility?
by desafinado
Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What do you do with dividends?
Replies: 51
Views: 4684

Re: What do you do with dividends?

it’s all fungible, but for taxable i send to the settlement account. this quarter i will use them as part of my roth contribution, the last 3 quarters i reinvested into international as it was falling.
by desafinado
Sat Dec 22, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expensive Colleges - Investment Worth It
Replies: 67
Views: 2725

Re: Expensive Colleges - Investment Worth It

I didn’t think so, my kid didn’t have entitlement either, easy for me to decide or her to decide. Now her roommate graduated from one of those top schools, ended up in the same job and employer. Maybe worth it to some very specific kids with very specific career aspirations, but once you graduated ...
by desafinado
Sat Dec 22, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11767
Views: 2018960

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

What's the current PE ratio of Vanguard total stock market? Vanguard website shows 18.7 but does this reflect the recent drop? They have quarter end and month end. They don't show December in ether. December was OMG. Forward PE on the S&P 500 is 15.09 That 123.80 value for the Russell 2000 12 month...
by desafinado
Sat Dec 22, 2018 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expensive Colleges - Investment Worth It
Replies: 67
Views: 2725

Re: Expensive Colleges - Investment Worth It

I know you just picked Northwestern at random, and I actually agree with all of your other points. But as a proud NU grad let me just point out that classmates of mine were recruited by all the major investment banks and consulting firms. Two friends in my class joined D. E. Shaw, the famously sele...
by desafinado
Sat Dec 22, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expensive Colleges - Investment Worth It
Replies: 67
Views: 2725

Re: Expensive Colleges - Investment Worth It

So, a top university education is a bundled product. It's part luxury consumption good and part financial investment. I think whether or not you should think of it as more one than the other depends on a few factors. 1. Your student's aspirations and specific talents. There *are* doors that are only...
by desafinado
Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cold war era urban/architectural drawings
Replies: 0
Views: 247

Cold war era urban/architectural drawings

Does anyone know where to look for these either online or in the physical world? I was recently inspired by the Yugoslavia exhibit at the MoMa[1] and would love to pick something up for myself.


[1] https://www.moma.org/calendar/exhibitions/3931
by desafinado
Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2412
Views: 435301

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

This is my first year in the workforce full time, so new contributions have dominated. I'm lucky that I've already had a good enough year financially to lose more than $10k in the stock market!
by desafinado
Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Priorities - Biglaw junior associate
Replies: 58
Views: 8229

Re: Priorities - Biglaw junior associate

I just made partner at a major law firm, after 10 years of work as an associate and counsel. Started in 2008 the day after Lehman filed....if you think you can continue living on $2500 a month (where do you live btw?) then sure, you will end up with some impressive savings. I never subscribed to th...
by desafinado
Mon Nov 19, 2018 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shorting the U.S. stock market
Replies: 18
Views: 1983

Re: Shorting the U.S. stock market

buy put options on an s&p500 etf.
by desafinado
Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's everyone currently in?
Replies: 93
Views: 8860

Re: What's everyone currently in?

VTIAX - 38%
VTSAX - 27.5%
VFINX - 10%
NMSCX (small cap) - 10%
VNYTX (NY muni) - 7%
VYFXX (NY mm) - 7%

I'm an early accumulator so my muni/mm portion is basically also my emergency fund.
by desafinado
Sun Oct 21, 2018 9:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Long Term Bonds for Young Retirement Investors
Replies: 25
Views: 2695

Re: Long Term Bonds for Young Retirement Investors

One thing I think about a little in fixed income land is that it is really only during modern financial capitalism where stocks have truly shown huge growth. Piketty writes about this a little bit. Traditionally, most investors primarily did invest in government bonds and that worked quite well in o...
by desafinado
Sat Oct 20, 2018 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Waiving contingencies for co-op purchase?
Replies: 17
Views: 1216

Re: Waiving contingencies for co-op purchase?

in particular given that it's a coop you are talking one of the more liquid real estate markets and it should be easy to find a suitable substitute as the housing market has cooled somewhat over the past year. i would keep looking
by desafinado
Sat Oct 13, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obamacare premiums will be down an average of 1.5 percent next year
Replies: 39
Views: 4187

Re: Obamacare premiums will be down an average of 1.5 percent next year

Anyone who can afford to self-insure can afford to buy insurance. There are many conditions where the cost is virtually unbounded - it's possible to consume $10m or more in healthcare costs. If you had the $20m where you could truly feel comfortable self-insuring, 30k in ACA premiums would be trivi...
by desafinado
Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obamacare premiums will be down an average of 1.5 percent next year
Replies: 39
Views: 4187

Re: Obamacare premiums will be down an average of 1.5 percent next year

Anyone who can afford to self-insure can afford to buy insurance. There are many conditions where the cost is virtually unbounded - it's possible to consume $10m or more in healthcare costs. If you had the $20m where you could truly feel comfortable self-insuring, 30k in ACA premiums would be trivial.
by desafinado
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I sell my taxable account for down payment for a house?
Replies: 6
Views: 575

Re: Should I sell my taxable account for down payment for a house?

I feel like your income is high enough (and presumably just recently reached that level?) that if I were you I'd hold off on buying a house just to save up another 100-150k in cash. There can be lots of unexpected expenses associated with buying a house so it might be nice to not feel squeezed if so...
by desafinado
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Bond Funds
Replies: 101
Views: 5250

Re: Emerging Market Bond Funds

I'm pretty persuaded by the MPT/factor idea that even a 60/40 world stock/intermediate treasury portfolio has substantially all of its risk dominated by equity beta. I think many accumulators have income and assets that is also pretty correlated with beta (e.g. if you work at Google or Goldman Sachs...
by desafinado
Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there an arbitrage opportunity when the imputed tax rate on a municipal bond varies from one's actual tax rate?
Replies: 5
Views: 569

Re: Is there an arbitrage opportunity when the imputed tax rate on a municipal bond varies from one's actual tax rate?

clarifying the above example, I don’t think it disagrees with the advice that the investor should choose the muni bonds if her tax rate is above the imputed rate. but that seems to be different than the existence of an arbitrage opportunity.
by desafinado
Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there an arbitrage opportunity when the imputed tax rate on a municipal bond varies from one's actual tax rate?
Replies: 5
Views: 569

Re: Is there an arbitrage opportunity when the imputed tax rate on a municipal bond varies from one's actual tax rate?

To simplify, let's ignore credit risk and assume the two bonds have the same term. Suppose you can buy or sell a tax-free bond with a 2% yield, and you have a marginal tax rate of 50 all in%. The taxable equivalent yield is therefore 4%. Suppose you can also buy or sell a taxable bond with a 3% yiel...
by desafinado
Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there an arbitrage opportunity when the imputed tax rate on a municipal bond varies from one's actual tax rate?
Replies: 5
Views: 569

Is there an arbitrage opportunity when the imputed tax rate on a municipal bond varies from one's actual tax rate?

I often see people say here that municipal bonds tend to have around a 25-33% imputed tax rate - that is, if the yield on a muni is `x` we should expect a taxable bond of equivalent duration and credit quality to have a yield of `1.2-1.5x`. Obviously, many investors have higher tax rates. In New Yor...
by desafinado
Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An RBD for long term bonds?
Replies: 4
Views: 450

An RBD for long term bonds?

Yesterday VBLTX (long term bonds) fell 1.36%, and VLGSX (long term treasury) fell 1.75%. Wow!
by desafinado
Sat Sep 29, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?
Replies: 148
Views: 19470

Re: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?

i am an early accumulator (read: lowish assets relative to income) so here is what i'm doing. 1. keeping all the us stocks i already have. 2. continuing to buy us stocks in my 401k because i don't have good international options there. 3. buying lots and lots of international. 4. beefing up my emerg...
by desafinado
Sat Sep 22, 2018 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone ever use a career counselor/career coach?
Replies: 7
Views: 1097

Re: Anyone ever use a career counselor/career coach?

I think I've seen a couple of your other posts and suspect we're in the same space. One thing to consider would be moving to a much larger industry player who is still kind of playing catch up from the technological side (such as a bank) instead of staying at a small, closely-held firm. Even if you ...