Search found 93 matches

by Greg in Idaho
Sun Dec 02, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm up 5% ytd and I will take it
Replies: 55
Views: 6011

Re: I'm up 5% ytd and I will take it

No offense, but who cares? Not sure how many times this has to be mentioned, but seems to be often as folks surprisingly even on this board have a very hard time understanding what "passive investor" means. Good luck. I'm still trying to get beyond the dismay at how much of this board consists of d...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson
Replies: 49
Views: 6089

Re: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson

So good to see that pretty much any mention of the "4% rule" (even when it is not a necessary element of the question posed) still devolves into the same old debates about what it is, whether/how it is a "rule", whether it is suitable to follow, and how/why/why not...often with some ruffled feathers...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities
Replies: 26
Views: 3068

Re: Annuities

I think the other main variable, other than the type/structure of the annuity (summarized nicely above), is the quality and financial health of the particular company, which is worth some research... I have a chunk with TIAA as that was my option...but as mentioned, they seem to be considered one of...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Oct 04, 2018 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bond index and rising interest rates
Replies: 17
Views: 2098

Re: bond index and rising interest rates

Interest rates are going up. Existing bonds prices are going down. Maybe no. Expected increases are already baked in. Only if rates rise faster than expected would the NAV fall. If expected increases are already baked in why is Total Bond steadily falling, week by week? yes...the "already baked in"...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any difference? (Re-balancing AA)
Replies: 14
Views: 1077

Re: Is there any difference? (Re-balancing AA)

crumbone wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:51 pm


"Buy and hold" really just means "don't sell for any reason other than rebalancing, tax loss harvesting, or retirement."
This strikes me as very reasonable...and would add RMD's to that list
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying VWIUX Today [Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Muni Bond]
Replies: 48
Views: 4813

Re: Buying VWIUX Today

For more market timing fun please note that the FOMC will meet next week and raise the FFR. Everybody knows that, but what they don't know is which adjectives and adverbs will change in the FOMC summary statement released on Wednesday. Perhaps a game of BINGO is in order, using a selection of poten...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying VWIUX Today [Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Muni Bond]
Replies: 48
Views: 4813

Re: Buying VWIUX Today

I have a chunk left to DCA/buy dips - into bonds. Bought the low in May, and am watching closely as sale prices return...but I am in no rush
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior
Replies: 26
Views: 2696

Re: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior

Yet another in the series: "I (and/or my industry) profits from X, therefore X is good (despite the appearances to the contrary)"

Funny that the blurb for the author even says: "He may have a stake in the areas he writes about."
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".
Replies: 26
Views: 9015

Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

There goes a bunch more hours online...damn you!

I had seen so many references to PV here but never bothered, because cfiresim offered all I wanted...except more
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Zero ER Funds are underperforming their equivalent premium class index funds
Replies: 59
Views: 7934

Re: Fidelity Zero ER Funds are underperforming their equivalent premium class index funds

so if your investing time-frame is 3 weeks, then you might want to think twice...got it
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Aug 02, 2018 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule .. but when?
Replies: 35
Views: 4334

Re: 4% rule .. but when?

AlohaJoe wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 6:56 am
. There's no retirement police ...
not so sure about that
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Jul 25, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are Economic Predictions Every Useful?"
Replies: 6
Views: 539

Re: "Are Economic Predictions Every Useful?"

I have always been amazed, particularly in academic circles, what economists get away with...often along the lines of "according to these assumptions, some of which we know to be false, a number of others are our best guesses, and all of which leave out a number of factors that we know to be importa...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I may have understood why it's so hard to save and invest
Replies: 75
Views: 11498

Re: I may have understood why it's so hard to save and invest

This is one advantage of automating the process. Do the work once to have the money automatically taken out of your paycheck (or bank account). Then you can sit back and relax while you slowly build up your investments. Try not to look at the balance too often, especially when the market is going d...
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds
Replies: 80
Views: 7542

Re: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds

In my opinion either option is going to work out just fine - the difference between the two will likely to end up being small enough to be lost in the noise of your investment returns. As such, I prefer bond funds because they are so much simpler to manage. This is about where I'm at...and while yo...
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to investing and just got an inheritance
Replies: 22
Views: 1807

Re: New to investing and just got an inheritance

I've been through this, and just want to reiterate some points already made. 1. Take your time and trust that you can figure things out, even if it seems daunting/confusing right now. The great resources here (and the common links on investing you will see) are all you need. Ask questions when you g...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 184
Views: 26340

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

ah...the 4% Rule...

good to see we have moved past the endless versions of "that's too risky"..."no, that's too conservative" back and forth.
by Greg in Idaho
Sun May 20, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has Firecalc or I-ORP altered your retirement plans?
Replies: 35
Views: 4335

Re: Has Firecalc or I-ORP altered your retirement plans?

I have spent lots of time with cfiresim and it has made a significant contribution to my comfort level with retiring. In particular, the process of starting with my best estimates for numbers, then doing a series of iterations with increasingly conservative numbers, has been illuminating. ...now let...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed May 16, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%
Replies: 106
Views: 11838

Re: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%

I'm sorry, it still does not make sense. I am perfectly fine with stocks dropping 30% because they have the potential to rise 30% the other way. Bonds will never have that potential, which is why I agree with some other posters that a penalty free CD may be a better option. I don't know what the pu...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Apr 19, 2018 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "5 Common Misconceptions About Index Funds"
Replies: 4
Views: 2078

Re: "5 Common Misconceptions About Index Funds"

Bogleheads: We love index mutual funds invented by our mentor, Jack Bogle. Index funds are not all alike and many misconceptions prevail. Christine Benz, Director of Personal Finance at Morningstar and a member of our Panel of Experts at Boglehead Conventions, explains five misconceptions: 1. All I...
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Financial Trends Persist
Replies: 51
Views: 4944

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Financial Trends Persist

"Sophisticated Noise" Much like the often referred to noise of the everyday financial media...but wrapped in extensive and sophisticated language. Like the everyday noise, if you listen to it, it tempts you to do something you otherwise would not do investment-wise, and (quite possibly) end up with ...
by Greg in Idaho
Sun Mar 18, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DCA falling bond funds?
Replies: 20
Views: 2722

Re: DCA falling bond funds?

I happened to liquidate my bond holdings when prices were at a peak (summer 2016), and have been DCAing back into them since, buying clear dips (but not into long bonds). I am going to keep doing so...and will keep reading posts from Nispirius, who has what I find to be the most compelling accounts ...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Count Out Commodities
Replies: 51
Views: 7196

Re: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Count Out Commodities

It seems to me (also) that this kind of stuff goes against BH basics: add complexity and cost for potential small hypothetical gains...another, more sophisticated form of noise, which if listened to, may lead one to either do more fiddling (a common source of mistakes), or be tempted to hire a profe...
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Feb 24, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Draw Down Plan - Stanford Longevity Report
Replies: 11
Views: 1081

Re: Stanford papers on retirement withdrawal strategies

I just took a quick look at that Stanford site...and saw regular references to retirement planning based on % of pre-retirement income (rather than spending). That seems like a red flag to me...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 36
Views: 7037

Re: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

I believe I understand that with (**predictions of**) increasing rates and higher inflation, risks of bond values dropping is there...but lower prices and higher yields have an upside don't they?

Wouldn't it be better to be being bonds or bond funds now, compared to a year ago?
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8542
Views: 1671066

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I think correction followed by the rebound is providing a decent opportunity for folks who just got a gut check and thought "I really wish I had rebalanced and not let things ride for so long" to act on that wish... And the correction is providing a partial answer for those who regularly ask here, "...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "3 Investing Mistakes to Avoid"
Replies: 20
Views: 3772

Re: "3 Investing Mistakes to Avoid"

"Investors spend a massive amount of time trying to make all the right moves."
This forum seems to resemble his remark...I need to stop coming here
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8542
Views: 1671066

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I wish a moderator would put this 7 year old thread out of its misery and lock it. If you don't like it, why read it? It's not like there's a shortage of other threads. You don't have to read a thread to be annoyed by it - it gets bumped to the top whenever someone posts in it and there is no abili...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where Are The 100% Equity Bulls? BND up .44%
Replies: 47
Views: 5429

Re: Where Are The 100% Equity Bulls? BND up .44%

I've been 70% equities, and for the past few months, wanting to move to 60%, but DW poo-poo'd the idea, and so I just said "let it ride."

Was feeling some regret until running the numbers... a small percentage of a 10% shift in AA doesn't add up to much, so...meh
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8542
Views: 1671066

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

MoonOrb wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:24 am
mptfan wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:14 am
Crushtheturtle wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:09 am
Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop drinking.
LOL. Is that a reference to the movie Airplane!?
Surely, you must be joking.
Hmmm...that one doesn't work in print..."I'm not joking, and stop calling my surely"
by Greg in Idaho
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8542
Views: 1671066

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

OK, since no one else seems to have jumped on this one:

Weeeeeeeeeee!!!
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simulated bond fund, actual interest rates
Replies: 20
Views: 2271

Re: Simulated bond fund, actual interest rates

I don't think it makes much sense to consider price-only, either in stocks or in bonds, but since, unlike stocks, bonds are not expected to make their money from capital appreciation, ignoring bond interest is even more foolish than ignoring stock dividends. ^This is the thing I need to be reminded...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Jan 30, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8542
Views: 1671066

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I'm tempted to jump from my ground floor window...but I guess the door is easier
by Greg in Idaho
Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dalio says bonds have entered a bear market
Replies: 98
Views: 12020

Re: Dalio says bonds have entered a bear market

CULater wrote:
Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:14 pm
IT'S OFFICIAL! BOND MARKET NOW CLOSED DUE TO BEAR THREAT!!!

Image
I have my pepper spray
by Greg in Idaho
Sun Jan 28, 2018 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: increasing stock allocation in retirement
Replies: 16
Views: 1409

Re: increasing stock allocation in retirement

keep in mind that the "normal" suggestion for allocations on this forum is to have your TIRA all or heavily invested in fixed income and your taxable account heavily invested in equities. In retirement and especially when RMDs are taken, the fixed income heavy TIRA will be shrinking over time and t...
by Greg in Idaho
Sun Jan 28, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you know much retirement income is needed?
Replies: 53
Views: 4874

Re: How do you know much retirement income is needed?

I know this doesn't fully address the OP's main concern about how much is needed in retirement, but I do find the section near the bottom of cfiresim , where you can add as many periodic expenses that you define (when and how much), rather handy. I put in a big expense every 5 years, guestimating th...
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?
Replies: 145
Views: 14493

Re: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?

Unicorns that are going public have increasing Annual Recurring Revenue, but most are losing money hand over fist. It seems like Wall Street just cares about increasing ARR and doesn't factor in whether or not companies are actually making money. The Rainbow Sector profits seem pretty elusive too.....
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did the bad news start in 2008?
Replies: 135
Views: 14674

Re: When did the bad news start in 2008?

Not trying to time the market here. When it's crashing, why not sell off in the early stage (before reaching the bottom), knowing it will eventually reach the bottom (you don't even need to time the bottom) and recover? You already have long-term gains and you can lock in those gains. I think I saw...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diary of a Bear Market
Replies: 24
Views: 3397

Re: Diary of a Bear Market

That Eastman Kodak stock looks tempting
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Jan 25, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dalio says bonds have entered a bear market
Replies: 98
Views: 12020

Re: Dalio says bonds have entered a bear market

billyt wrote:
Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:23 am
a "bond bear market" for traders is a bond bull market for Bogleheads.
say that 5 times, fast...dare ya
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Jan 25, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?
Replies: 244
Views: 26167

Re: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?

How could it be wrong? : "Somebody knows something" But I'm not sure how badly wrong it would be. This could be seen as part of the active/passive debate, as well as trend following - etc. As I've said before, I think the actual point is that the "nobody knows nothin" line, while a pretty effective ...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will a bond sell-off be the catalyst for a Major Market Correction?
Replies: 13
Views: 1605

Re: Will a bond sell-off be the catalyst for a Major Market Correction?

A sell-off in bonds could be "the Armageddon event for this year," Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst for Think Markets UK, wrote in a report Tuesday. Armageddon event, huh. It’s almost as if he was trying to appeal to the emotions. The apparently annual Armageddon event. I wonder if department stor...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd
Replies: 94
Views: 8642

Re: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd

i just thought of my co-worker, who sold all his equities and went 100% bonds and cash just before the election... I had a co-worker get wiped out in 08-09...got out just after that and never got back in... :shock: I run into him occasionally, and really like seeing him (good guy), but there is alw...
by Greg in Idaho
Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 40
Views: 7427

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?

This thread reinforces my amazement that we don't have more books (and other resources) like McClung's Living Off Your Money...Yes, there is info out there, but it still seems a bit like the Wild West in this part of the investing world...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you time the market when you have to?
Replies: 14
Views: 1242

Re: How do you time the market when you have to?

I know timing the market is frowned upon in general, but there are times it's necessary- like when moving money around. I just pulled the trigger yesterday on a 401k rollover (had to be liquidated). This 401k was about half full of mid and small caps, which, of course, are up pretty good today. So,...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Talk me out of a 60/40 AA
Replies: 76
Views: 10080

Re: Talk me out of a 60/40 AA

dumbbunny wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:49 pm
nasrullah wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:39 pm


Found FireCalc https://www.firecalc.com/ and just lost the next week of my life :) Thanks, this is pretty amazing.
Try www.cfiresim.com, too, if you have time.
+1 on this
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are So Many Companies Announcing Share Buyback?
Replies: 32
Views: 3567

Re: Why Are So Many Companies Announcing Share Buyback?

Then there is this (and others like it in the past few months):

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saying-bye ... 1511438400

for the click averse, the subtitle is: "Companies in the S&P 500 are on pace to spend the least on buybacks since 2012"
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses
Replies: 17
Views: 2282

Re: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses

So what I'm hearing is: People working in the investment industry publish work on investment strategies that just happens to support their own bottom line.

Shocking...(sarcasm aside--I do appreciate the above analyses/commentary)
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods
Replies: 28
Views: 2828

Re: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods

Lots of intense focus on the best model, inputs, and assumptions, which is great...but there are no solid "answers", but merely information that has to be interpreted , which is at least as big of a challenge as what goes into and what comes out of your model. It is good to understand the possibilit...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.
Replies: 58
Views: 7348

Re: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.

I found this to be an interesting exercise. I am interested in comments from the forum, especially if you disagree with any of my observations. Let me know if you think I am missing something. I would say what you're missing is that you're searching for the most optimum portfolio to use, for one of...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 15432

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

The "math" I've done have said we could FIRE for a couple years now but the facts do not do much in way of minimizing the deep in the gut or mind emotional fear, especially with the unknowns of health insurance costs until age 65. I would like to add my +1 to this comment. I'm still on the youngish...