Search found 46 matches

by Greg in Idaho
Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods
Replies: 28
Views: 1876

Re: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods

Lots of intense focus on the best model, inputs, and assumptions, which is great...but there are no solid "answers", but merely information that has to be interpreted , which is at least as big of a challenge as what goes into and what comes out of your model. It is good to understand the possibilit...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.
Replies: 50
Views: 4363

Re: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.

I found this to be an interesting exercise. I am interested in comments from the forum, especially if you disagree with any of my observations. Let me know if you think I am missing something. I would say what you're missing is that you're searching for the most optimum portfolio to use, for one of...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 12710

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

The "math" I've done have said we could FIRE for a couple years now but the facts do not do much in way of minimizing the deep in the gut or mind emotional fear, especially with the unknowns of health insurance costs until age 65. I would like to add my +1 to this comment. I'm still on the youngish...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"
Replies: 69
Views: 8722

Re: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"

Some odd responses. I am happy for her. Lev +1 I agree. And it's threads like this one that remind me of the extent to which the Bogleheads forum sometimes seems like a kind of faith-based movement, a sort of Magic Markets/Always Invest belief system, and not very tolerant of differing views. Ms. W...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"
Replies: 69
Views: 8722

Re: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"

Some odd responses. I am happy for her. Lev +1 I agree. And it's threads like this one that remind me of the extent to which the Bogleheads forum sometimes seems like a kind of faith-based movement, a sort of Magic Markets/Always Invest belief system, and not very tolerant of differing views. Ms. W...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would David Swensen's advice be different if he wrote his book in 2017?
Replies: 4
Views: 951

Re: Would David Swensen's advice be different if he wrote his book in 2017?

I thought you might take this in the direction of questioning rebalancing as a strategy...McClung's recent book uses rebalancing as a standard for common, but low performing strategies, compared to a number of alternatives he explores (most I think developed based on analyses since Unconventional Su...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Nov 01, 2017 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Identifying failure cycles in FIRECalc
Replies: 6
Views: 814

Re: Identifying failure cycles in FIRECalc

I second the cfiresim suggestion
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CDs, general questions, ladders, etc.
Replies: 39
Views: 2340

Re: CDs, general questions, ladders, etc.

I use the Fidelity window for CDs. I can sort by yield, see a variety of lenders in one place, and automate reinvestment if you like. Might worth a visit to check it out. The problem with shopping CDs that you purchase yourself, from a variety of lenders, is, in my case, the possibility of losing t...
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Trouble [NY Times: TIAA pushes clients to high fee products]
Replies: 50
Views: 4587

Re: TIAA Trouble

student wrote:
Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:46 am
I just want to mention that I only have one data point but the rep for my university has never called me or emailed me to solicit business. I did email him a few times over the years and he always responded promptly and there were no sales messages in his replies.
same here
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Oct 18, 2017 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: R/E Investing Approaches: Bogleheads vs MMM vs BiggerPockets?
Replies: 7
Views: 1063

Re: R/E Investing Approaches: Bogleheads vs MMM vs BiggerPockets?

I think the element of real estate investing on MMM may also be (partly) a feature of when it came about...as a number of folks with even modest means could get into the business, capitalizing on depressed prices post-crash, combined with the entrepreneurial/DIY spirit of those looking for an altern...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Oct 10, 2017 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a “bond bubble”?
Replies: 35
Views: 3326

Re: What is a “bond bubble”?

in discussing a bond fund ...if something shakes investors psychology and they decide to all get out of VBTLX, can't we have share prices decoupled from the value of the underlying bonds? I don't see how, since the share price is the per share NAV, which is based on the prices of the bonds. Of cour...
by Greg in Idaho
Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a “bond bubble”?
Replies: 35
Views: 3326

Re: What is a “bond bubble”?

in discussing a bond fund ...if something shakes investors psychology and they decide to all get out of VBTLX, can't we have share prices decoupled from the value of the underlying bonds? And if we add in the opposite prior to this...with prices being bid up, then followed by a drop, couldn't that b...
by Greg in Idaho
Mon Sep 25, 2017 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?
Replies: 99
Views: 6510

Re: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?

miles monroe wrote:
Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:33 am
alfaspider wrote:
Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:24 am
You are asking me if I want to invest in a barbarous relic or a fad. Can I choose neither?
this is the correct answer.
+1
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?
Replies: 36
Views: 10101

Re: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

It cracks me up to so regularly see threads like this, which go so clearly against the basic tenets of what BH seems to be about: keep it simple, keep it low cost, don't try to time/predict the market. And threads abound about complex portfolio tuning and market guesswork... :oops:
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Sep 14, 2017 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market
Replies: 41
Views: 4753

Re: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market

I appreciate the clarifications on terminology...and with them on the table, no big deal in using "tracking error" as short hand for the misleading influence of (actual) tracking error on investors. So I hope I'm making progress in avoiding that influence, since a few days ago, I saw all the major U...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market
Replies: 41
Views: 4753

Re: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market

Dbr, Everything you say is correct, but I think you're missing the point. We're not talking about informed investors critically looking at performance the way statisticians and pros should and would. Instead we're talking about the guy subject to the psychological difficulty of comparing his invest...
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taxable account, all about retirement
Replies: 23
Views: 2865

Re: Taxable account, all about retirement

OP - I know you say your 401K and TIRA are fully funded...but just a check to make sure whether you have any opportunities for supplemental tax advantaged savings options (I ask because it wasn't until I specifically inquired did I find out that I could contribute more through a 457b (in my case). D...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Aug 03, 2017 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Rise From 7,000 to 22,000
Replies: 49
Views: 6862

Re: The Rise From 7,000 to 22,000

A colleague and friend of mine got out of the market during the last crash...when the topic of the market came up in conversation about retirement, he looked at me with incredulity when I said I was heavily invested. He said they took a nasty beating and that he wasn't going to risk it again...he di...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Jun 30, 2017 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Eight Signs You are a Seasoned Investor by Johnathan Clements
Replies: 19
Views: 4787

Re: Eight Signs You are a Seasoned Investor by Johnathan Clements

I guess I'm fairly well seasoned...except the few times when I've had large chunks of cash to invest, then I have struggled a bit with this one: "You can coolly decide whether to buy or sell, without getting fixated on what’s happened in the market recently or what price you paid for a particular in...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Jun 23, 2017 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "10 Reasons Why Advisers Struggle To Keep Client Portfolios Simple"
Replies: 25
Views: 4314

Re: "10 Reasons Why Advisers Struggle To Keep Client Portfolios Simple"

I don't think it's mostly client driven, rather it's predominately adviser driven. Many advisers make portfolios complex to make investing seem difficult and complex. Because if their clients did indeed figure out how simple it is, they would ask why they need an expert to do it for them. Plus chur...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Jun 23, 2017 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bonds when one's investment horizon is long?
Replies: 59
Views: 4917

Re: Why bonds when one's investment horizon is long?

I'm curious for the veteran members of this board/the previous morningstar group. This board existed when the 2008/9 crisis hit. How many people were making threads or asking a lot of questions regarding their 100% stock portfolio plummeting? I'm wondering because after an 8 year bull-run, it seems...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???
Replies: 43
Views: 4383

Re: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???

I was assuming some SS income and therefore an appx 4% withdrawal rate in either case. But: For a 70 YO with $10m in assets, a 4% SWR would be 400k per year. This hypothetical person is not going to run out of money, period. I don't care how it's invested. Even assuming they were taking only from t...
by Greg in Idaho
Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???
Replies: 43
Views: 4383

Re: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???

A very helpful discussion here, thanks all.... I wonder if high equity allocations would get such wide endorsements in late 2008? ...ok, just spent some time back in late 2008 BH-Land, and while I didn't see much in the way of studies analyzing different AA's in the context of retirement, a great de...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue May 23, 2017 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lazy way to increase returns on cash in Vanguard
Replies: 22
Views: 2818

Re: Lazy way to increase returns on cash in Vanguard

Thanks for all the recommendations...although once again, I'd like to keep all the money in Vanguard (and really don't want to open new accounts at Ally, etc., move the money, move it back)...remember the lazy part...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue May 23, 2017 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lazy way to increase returns on cash in Vanguard
Replies: 22
Views: 2818

Lazy way to increase returns on cash in Vanguard

I have a few hundred K of money sitting in VMFXX (the default money market settlement fund at Vanguard)...much of it destined to DCA into VBTLX over a few years, and some as emergency fund. I really don't want to move that money out of Vanguard, but would like to increase my returns, above the curre...
by Greg in Idaho
Mon May 08, 2017 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nice piece by Christine Benz, "Not a portfolio emergency"
Replies: 14
Views: 3400

Re: Nice piece by Christine Benz, "Not a portfolio emergency"

The cited list of false fixes remind me of so many of the thread titles around here...lots of attempts to super-optimize the structure/content of one's portfolio (perhaps, I don't know, instead of consistently adding more to it).
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Mar 31, 2017 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Over last 6 years, has the Total Bond Market Index produced an overall slight loss?
Replies: 35
Views: 5401

Re: Over last 6 years, has the Total Bond Market Index produced an overall slight loss?

Thank you for the replies. Did you learn how to answer these questions for yourself on morningstar.com? I hope we don't start lecturing each other on this forum but maintain courtesy and understanding. Not everyone, including yours truly, has the same degree of financial expertise to read and analy...
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Mar 25, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your strategy for withdrawing funds in Retirement ?
Replies: 57
Views: 7571

Re: What's your strategy for withdrawing funds in Retirement ?

One of the great mysteries to me are the Great Debates over Safe Withdrawal Rates (SWR). I put Safe Withdrawal Rates into Google and it came up with more than 15 million hits. One wonders how people managed to retire without knowing their "SWR." Mathematicians love numbers. Fortunately fo...
by Greg in Idaho
Mon Mar 06, 2017 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates: A 2000-2016 case study
Replies: 31
Views: 4963

Re: The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates: A 2000-2016 case study

So it doesn't seem to me that the FIRE community is just telling early retirees to use the 4% rule with zero consideration as to why or to alternatives. I call all of your examples "hedging" just like most bloggers have disclaimer statements. For each one of those hedges, you get 10 or mo...
by Greg in Idaho
Mon Mar 06, 2017 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Refining the failure rate, when it fails matters, not just how often
Replies: 20
Views: 2775

Re: Refining the failure rate, when it fails matters, not just how often

Often a surprise to hear about what people aren't considering on this front...but I have a 0% failure rate on the current plan, and look at the charts and tables to see where the lows are under plans that do have a failure rate (which is pretty easy). I'd never just rely on a single number any model...
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Mar 04, 2017 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cfiresim Variable Spending Plan
Replies: 3
Views: 441

Re: cfiresim Variable Spending Plan

OK, I'll take a stab and suggest it comes from Bengen's floor and ceiling rule...but I'm not sure
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Mar 03, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cfiresim Variable Spending Plan
Replies: 3
Views: 441

Re: cfiresim Variable Spending Plan

I'm also wondering whether the floor and ceiling values that you can set are inflation adjusted or not (I'm assuming so, but I don't see that assumption being pointed out)...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Mar 03, 2017 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cfiresim Variable Spending Plan
Replies: 3
Views: 441

cfiresim Variable Spending Plan

In the menu of spending plan options on cfiresim, I'm currently taken with the Variable Spending Plan, which is described as follows in the FAQ/Tutorial: " Variable Spending : allows for small deviations in spending within those values when the market dictates it. The Z-value determines how muc...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Mar 01, 2017 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity offers buy outs to reduce workforce
Replies: 26
Views: 4573

Re: Fidelity offers buy outs to reduce workforce

Every company wants to get rid of the older people. I wish Fidelity would just keep their excellent online services and get rid of their fancy brick-and-mortar offices all over the place which and put the savings back in even lower fees (even though their fees are very low to begin with and basical...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Mar 01, 2017 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity offers buy outs to reduce workforce
Replies: 26
Views: 4573

Re: Fidelity offers buy outs to reduce workforce

If this reduced my costs, then great...Fido has always overdone/overspent on customer service from my perspective...always "reaching out" to see if I have questions or need anything. I tell them no, and to quit calling me, as I know how to get ahold of them if needed...and then the rep's a...
by Greg in Idaho
Sun Feb 26, 2017 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How should people factor Social Security into their "magic number" with early retirement?
Replies: 76
Views: 7075

Re: How should people factor Social Security into their "magic number" with early retirement?

I just plug it all into cfiresim, which then lets you easily see how changes in your assumptions about ss can affect you
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "preview" of bear market
Replies: 17
Views: 3994

Re: "preview" of bear market

What tools are you using for modeling this drop?

Recommendations from others?
by Greg in Idaho
Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 year total bond results--ignorant
Replies: 4
Views: 997

Re: 1 year total bond results--ignorant

I think you have answered your own question. Yes, the return of Total Bond Index was boosted by the monthly interest payments the fund / ETF paid out either in cash or reinvested in additional shares. That contributes to total return. If you think about it, if you hold an individual bond to its ful...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"
Replies: 48
Views: 9536

Re: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"

In that video he explicitly says investors should not buy bonds because the yield is too low and it will continue to be low because the government will do whatever government can do to keep it that way. Well that seems like it would make a big difference, and seems pretty prescient if it was in 201...
by Greg in Idaho
Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Predicting future Net Worth
Replies: 31
Views: 4813

Re: Predicting future Net Worth

MathWizard wrote: There are several calculators out there (firecalc for example) which may be better than
making your own.


yep
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Jan 05, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats your number to walk away?
Replies: 245
Views: 32347

Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Long time listener, first time caller... May I ask how people include expected income from pensions in assessing "your number" and also how people differentiate (if at all) between taxable and Roth assets in assessing "your number"? I like the idea of setting a goal and determin...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats your number to walk away?
Replies: 245
Views: 32347

Re: Whats your number to walk away?

So if annual expenditures are $100k and expect to live 40 years, that number would be 4 million. Huh? Huh? indeed... Perhaps I've spent too much time on Mr. Money Mustache, but the numbers and the logic here seems a bit overboard. You might want to play with this: m And do the readings on early ret...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Dec 29, 2016 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Questions - Analysis and Advice Sought
Replies: 7
Views: 644

Re: Portfolio Questions - Analysis and Advice Sought

Good reminders in gains (I'm not planning to sell a ton anytime soon), so I'm on it, as with the charitable strategy...thanks.

Any takers on Question #1 (and #2) from the OP?
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Dec 29, 2016 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Questions - Analysis and Advice Sought
Replies: 7
Views: 644

Re: Portfolio Questions - Analysis and Advice Sought

I'm in Idaho, believe it or not :D , so no state fund at Vanguard.

Others???
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Questions - Analysis and Advice Sought
Replies: 7
Views: 644

Re: Portfolio Questions - Analysis and Advice Sought

Yes, lots of overlap and unnecessary complexity...but as you notice, capital gains have (up to this point) been a reason not to sell to simplify... ...but as we move into the 15% bracket next year, the gains tax penalty is taken care of, as is (at least some of) the upside of tax exempt bond funds i...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Dec 29, 2016 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Questions - Analysis and Advice Sought
Replies: 7
Views: 644

Portfolio Questions - Analysis and Advice Sought

Thanks in advance for taking the time to look this over and offer advice. - Debt: 0 - Tax Filing Status: Married Filing Jointly - Tax Rate: Will drop into the 15% federal bracket for 2017 - State of Residence: ID (effectively paying ~4%) - Age: 50 - Kids: 0 - Employment: Me semi-retired; Her still w...