Search found 80 matches

by Greg in Idaho
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds
Replies: 63
Views: 4485

Re: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds

In my opinion either option is going to work out just fine - the difference between the two will likely to end up being small enough to be lost in the noise of your investment returns. As such, I prefer bond funds because they are so much simpler to manage. This is about where I'm at...and while yo...
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to investing and just got an inheritance
Replies: 22
Views: 1593

Re: New to investing and just got an inheritance

I've been through this, and just want to reiterate some points already made. 1. Take your time and trust that you can figure things out, even if it seems daunting/confusing right now. The great resources here (and the common links on investing you will see) are all you need. Ask questions when you g...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17936

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

ah...the 4% Rule...

good to see we have moved past the endless versions of "that's too risky"..."no, that's too conservative" back and forth.
by Greg in Idaho
Sun May 20, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has Firecalc or I-ORP altered your retirement plans?
Replies: 35
Views: 3895

Re: Has Firecalc or I-ORP altered your retirement plans?

I have spent lots of time with cfiresim and it has made a significant contribution to my comfort level with retiring. In particular, the process of starting with my best estimates for numbers, then doing a series of iterations with increasingly conservative numbers, has been illuminating. ...now let...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed May 16, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%
Replies: 106
Views: 10468

Re: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%

I'm sorry, it still does not make sense. I am perfectly fine with stocks dropping 30% because they have the potential to rise 30% the other way. Bonds will never have that potential, which is why I agree with some other posters that a penalty free CD may be a better option. I don't know what the pu...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Apr 19, 2018 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "5 Common Misconceptions About Index Funds"
Replies: 4
Views: 1846

Re: "5 Common Misconceptions About Index Funds"

Bogleheads: We love index mutual funds invented by our mentor, Jack Bogle. Index funds are not all alike and many misconceptions prevail. Christine Benz, Director of Personal Finance at Morningstar and a member of our Panel of Experts at Boglehead Conventions, explains five misconceptions: 1. All I...
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Financial Trends Persist
Replies: 51
Views: 4637

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Financial Trends Persist

"Sophisticated Noise" Much like the often referred to noise of the everyday financial media...but wrapped in extensive and sophisticated language. Like the everyday noise, if you listen to it, it tempts you to do something you otherwise would not do investment-wise, and (quite possibly) end up with ...
by Greg in Idaho
Sun Mar 18, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DCA falling bond funds?
Replies: 20
Views: 2489

Re: DCA falling bond funds?

I happened to liquidate my bond holdings when prices were at a peak (summer 2016), and have been DCAing back into them since, buying clear dips (but not into long bonds). I am going to keep doing so...and will keep reading posts from Nispirius, who has what I find to be the most compelling accounts ...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Count Out Commodities
Replies: 51
Views: 6345

Re: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Count Out Commodities

It seems to me (also) that this kind of stuff goes against BH basics: add complexity and cost for potential small hypothetical gains...another, more sophisticated form of noise, which if listened to, may lead one to either do more fiddling (a common source of mistakes), or be tempted to hire a profe...
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Feb 24, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Draw Down Plan - Stanford Longevity Report
Replies: 11
Views: 912

Re: Stanford papers on retirement withdrawal strategies

I just took a quick look at that Stanford site...and saw regular references to retirement planning based on % of pre-retirement income (rather than spending). That seems like a red flag to me...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 36
Views: 6740

Re: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

I believe I understand that with (**predictions of**) increasing rates and higher inflation, risks of bond values dropping is there...but lower prices and higher yields have an upside don't they?

Wouldn't it be better to be being bonds or bond funds now, compared to a year ago?
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434400

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I think correction followed by the rebound is providing a decent opportunity for folks who just got a gut check and thought "I really wish I had rebalanced and not let things ride for so long" to act on that wish... And the correction is providing a partial answer for those who regularly ask here, "...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "3 Investing Mistakes to Avoid"
Replies: 20
Views: 3605

Re: "3 Investing Mistakes to Avoid"

"Investors spend a massive amount of time trying to make all the right moves."
This forum seems to resemble his remark...I need to stop coming here
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434400

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I wish a moderator would put this 7 year old thread out of its misery and lock it. If you don't like it, why read it? It's not like there's a shortage of other threads. You don't have to read a thread to be annoyed by it - it gets bumped to the top whenever someone posts in it and there is no abili...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where Are The 100% Equity Bulls? BND up .44%
Replies: 47
Views: 5088

Re: Where Are The 100% Equity Bulls? BND up .44%

I've been 70% equities, and for the past few months, wanting to move to 60%, but DW poo-poo'd the idea, and so I just said "let it ride."

Was feeling some regret until running the numbers... a small percentage of a 10% shift in AA doesn't add up to much, so...meh
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434400

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

MoonOrb wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:24 am
mptfan wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:14 am
Crushtheturtle wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:09 am
Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop drinking.
LOL. Is that a reference to the movie Airplane!?
Surely, you must be joking.
Hmmm...that one doesn't work in print..."I'm not joking, and stop calling my surely"
by Greg in Idaho
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434400

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

OK, since no one else seems to have jumped on this one:

Weeeeeeeeeee!!!
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simulated bond fund, actual interest rates
Replies: 20
Views: 2073

Re: Simulated bond fund, actual interest rates

I don't think it makes much sense to consider price-only, either in stocks or in bonds, but since, unlike stocks, bonds are not expected to make their money from capital appreciation, ignoring bond interest is even more foolish than ignoring stock dividends. ^This is the thing I need to be reminded...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Jan 30, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434400

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I'm tempted to jump from my ground floor window...but I guess the door is easier
by Greg in Idaho
Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dalio says bonds have entered a bear market
Replies: 96
Views: 10284

Re: Dalio says bonds have entered a bear market

CULater wrote:
Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:14 pm
IT'S OFFICIAL! BOND MARKET NOW CLOSED DUE TO BEAR THREAT!!!

Image
I have my pepper spray
by Greg in Idaho
Sun Jan 28, 2018 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: increasing stock allocation in retirement
Replies: 16
Views: 1133

Re: increasing stock allocation in retirement

keep in mind that the "normal" suggestion for allocations on this forum is to have your TIRA all or heavily invested in fixed income and your taxable account heavily invested in equities. In retirement and especially when RMDs are taken, the fixed income heavy TIRA will be shrinking over time and t...
by Greg in Idaho
Sun Jan 28, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you know much retirement income is needed?
Replies: 53
Views: 4287

Re: How do you know much retirement income is needed?

I know this doesn't fully address the OP's main concern about how much is needed in retirement, but I do find the section near the bottom of cfiresim , where you can add as many periodic expenses that you define (when and how much), rather handy. I put in a big expense every 5 years, guestimating th...
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?
Replies: 145
Views: 13596

Re: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?

Unicorns that are going public have increasing Annual Recurring Revenue, but most are losing money hand over fist. It seems like Wall Street just cares about increasing ARR and doesn't factor in whether or not companies are actually making money. The Rainbow Sector profits seem pretty elusive too.....
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did the bad news start in 2008?
Replies: 135
Views: 13701

Re: When did the bad news start in 2008?

Not trying to time the market here. When it's crashing, why not sell off in the early stage (before reaching the bottom), knowing it will eventually reach the bottom (you don't even need to time the bottom) and recover? You already have long-term gains and you can lock in those gains. I think I saw...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diary of a Bear Market
Replies: 24
Views: 3112

Re: Diary of a Bear Market

That Eastman Kodak stock looks tempting
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Jan 25, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dalio says bonds have entered a bear market
Replies: 96
Views: 10284

Re: Dalio says bonds have entered a bear market

billyt wrote:
Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:23 am
a "bond bear market" for traders is a bond bull market for Bogleheads.
say that 5 times, fast...dare ya
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Jan 25, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?
Replies: 244
Views: 24074

Re: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?

How could it be wrong? : "Somebody knows something" But I'm not sure how badly wrong it would be. This could be seen as part of the active/passive debate, as well as trend following - etc. As I've said before, I think the actual point is that the "nobody knows nothin" line, while a pretty effective ...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will a bond sell-off be the catalyst for a Major Market Correction?
Replies: 13
Views: 1525

Re: Will a bond sell-off be the catalyst for a Major Market Correction?

A sell-off in bonds could be "the Armageddon event for this year," Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst for Think Markets UK, wrote in a report Tuesday. Armageddon event, huh. It’s almost as if he was trying to appeal to the emotions. The apparently annual Armageddon event. I wonder if department stor...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd
Replies: 94
Views: 8209

Re: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd

i just thought of my co-worker, who sold all his equities and went 100% bonds and cash just before the election... I had a co-worker get wiped out in 08-09...got out just after that and never got back in... :shock: I run into him occasionally, and really like seeing him (good guy), but there is alw...
by Greg in Idaho
Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 40
Views: 6996

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?

This thread reinforces my amazement that we don't have more books (and other resources) like McClung's Living Off Your Money...Yes, there is info out there, but it still seems a bit like the Wild West in this part of the investing world...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you time the market when you have to?
Replies: 14
Views: 1107

Re: How do you time the market when you have to?

I know timing the market is frowned upon in general, but there are times it's necessary- like when moving money around. I just pulled the trigger yesterday on a 401k rollover (had to be liquidated). This 401k was about half full of mid and small caps, which, of course, are up pretty good today. So,...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Talk me out of a 60/40 AA
Replies: 76
Views: 9189

Re: Talk me out of a 60/40 AA

dumbbunny wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:49 pm
nasrullah wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:39 pm


Found FireCalc https://www.firecalc.com/ and just lost the next week of my life :) Thanks, this is pretty amazing.
Try www.cfiresim.com, too, if you have time.
+1 on this
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are So Many Companies Announcing Share Buyback?
Replies: 32
Views: 3341

Re: Why Are So Many Companies Announcing Share Buyback?

Then there is this (and others like it in the past few months):

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saying-bye ... 1511438400

for the click averse, the subtitle is: "Companies in the S&P 500 are on pace to spend the least on buybacks since 2012"
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses
Replies: 17
Views: 2188

Re: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses

So what I'm hearing is: People working in the investment industry publish work on investment strategies that just happens to support their own bottom line.

Shocking...(sarcasm aside--I do appreciate the above analyses/commentary)
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods
Replies: 28
Views: 2567

Re: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods

Lots of intense focus on the best model, inputs, and assumptions, which is great...but there are no solid "answers", but merely information that has to be interpreted , which is at least as big of a challenge as what goes into and what comes out of your model. It is good to understand the possibilit...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.
Replies: 58
Views: 6946

Re: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.

I found this to be an interesting exercise. I am interested in comments from the forum, especially if you disagree with any of my observations. Let me know if you think I am missing something. I would say what you're missing is that you're searching for the most optimum portfolio to use, for one of...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 14752

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

The "math" I've done have said we could FIRE for a couple years now but the facts do not do much in way of minimizing the deep in the gut or mind emotional fear, especially with the unknowns of health insurance costs until age 65. I would like to add my +1 to this comment. I'm still on the youngish...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"
Replies: 69
Views: 9968

Re: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"

Some odd responses. I am happy for her. Lev +1 I agree. And it's threads like this one that remind me of the extent to which the Bogleheads forum sometimes seems like a kind of faith-based movement, a sort of Magic Markets/Always Invest belief system, and not very tolerant of differing views. Ms. W...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"
Replies: 69
Views: 9968

Re: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"

Some odd responses. I am happy for her. Lev +1 I agree. And it's threads like this one that remind me of the extent to which the Bogleheads forum sometimes seems like a kind of faith-based movement, a sort of Magic Markets/Always Invest belief system, and not very tolerant of differing views. Ms. W...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would David Swensen's advice be different if he wrote his book in 2017?
Replies: 4
Views: 1090

Re: Would David Swensen's advice be different if he wrote his book in 2017?

I thought you might take this in the direction of questioning rebalancing as a strategy...McClung's recent book uses rebalancing as a standard for common, but low performing strategies, compared to a number of alternatives he explores (most I think developed based on analyses since Unconventional Su...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Nov 01, 2017 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Identifying failure cycles in FIRECalc
Replies: 6
Views: 996

Re: Identifying failure cycles in FIRECalc

I second the cfiresim suggestion
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CDs, general questions, ladders, etc.
Replies: 39
Views: 3078

Re: CDs, general questions, ladders, etc.

I use the Fidelity window for CDs. I can sort by yield, see a variety of lenders in one place, and automate reinvestment if you like. Might worth a visit to check it out. The problem with shopping CDs that you purchase yourself, from a variety of lenders, is, in my case, the possibility of losing t...
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Trouble [NY Times: TIAA pushes clients to high fee products]
Replies: 50
Views: 5576

Re: TIAA Trouble

student wrote:
Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:46 am
I just want to mention that I only have one data point but the rep for my university has never called me or emailed me to solicit business. I did email him a few times over the years and he always responded promptly and there were no sales messages in his replies.
same here
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Oct 18, 2017 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: R/E Investing Approaches: Bogleheads vs MMM vs BiggerPockets?
Replies: 7
Views: 1283

Re: R/E Investing Approaches: Bogleheads vs MMM vs BiggerPockets?

I think the element of real estate investing on MMM may also be (partly) a feature of when it came about...as a number of folks with even modest means could get into the business, capitalizing on depressed prices post-crash, combined with the entrepreneurial/DIY spirit of those looking for an altern...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Oct 10, 2017 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a “bond bubble”?
Replies: 35
Views: 3932

Re: What is a “bond bubble”?

in discussing a bond fund ...if something shakes investors psychology and they decide to all get out of VBTLX, can't we have share prices decoupled from the value of the underlying bonds? I don't see how, since the share price is the per share NAV, which is based on the prices of the bonds. Of cour...
by Greg in Idaho
Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a “bond bubble”?
Replies: 35
Views: 3932

Re: What is a “bond bubble”?

in discussing a bond fund ...if something shakes investors psychology and they decide to all get out of VBTLX, can't we have share prices decoupled from the value of the underlying bonds? And if we add in the opposite prior to this...with prices being bid up, then followed by a drop, couldn't that b...
by Greg in Idaho
Mon Sep 25, 2017 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?
Replies: 99
Views: 8021

Re: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?

miles monroe wrote:
Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:33 am
alfaspider wrote:
Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:24 am
You are asking me if I want to invest in a barbarous relic or a fad. Can I choose neither?
this is the correct answer.
+1
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?
Replies: 36
Views: 10375

Re: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

It cracks me up to so regularly see threads like this, which go so clearly against the basic tenets of what BH seems to be about: keep it simple, keep it low cost, don't try to time/predict the market. And threads abound about complex portfolio tuning and market guesswork... :oops:
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Sep 14, 2017 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market
Replies: 41
Views: 5472

Re: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market

I appreciate the clarifications on terminology...and with them on the table, no big deal in using "tracking error" as short hand for the misleading influence of (actual) tracking error on investors. So I hope I'm making progress in avoiding that influence, since a few days ago, I saw all the major U...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market
Replies: 41
Views: 5472

Re: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market

Dbr, Everything you say is correct, but I think you're missing the point. We're not talking about informed investors critically looking at performance the way statisticians and pros should and would. Instead we're talking about the guy subject to the psychological difficulty of comparing his invest...