Search found 69 matches

by Greg in Idaho
Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5575
Views: 1261203

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I think correction followed by the rebound is providing a decent opportunity for folks who just got a gut check and thought "I really wish I had rebalanced and not let things ride for so long" to act on that wish... And the correction is providing a partial answer for those who regularly ask here, "...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "3 Investing Mistakes to Avoid"
Replies: 20
Views: 3376

Re: "3 Investing Mistakes to Avoid"

"Investors spend a massive amount of time trying to make all the right moves."
This forum seems to resemble his remark...I need to stop coming here
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5575
Views: 1261203

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I wish a moderator would put this 7 year old thread out of its misery and lock it. If you don't like it, why read it? It's not like there's a shortage of other threads. You don't have to read a thread to be annoyed by it - it gets bumped to the top whenever someone posts in it and there is no abili...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where Are The 100% Equity Bulls? BND up .44%
Replies: 47
Views: 4661

Re: Where Are The 100% Equity Bulls? BND up .44%

I've been 70% equities, and for the past few months, wanting to move to 60%, but DW poo-poo'd the idea, and so I just said "let it ride."

Was feeling some regret until running the numbers... a small percentage of a 10% shift in AA doesn't add up to much, so...meh
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5575
Views: 1261203

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

MoonOrb wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:24 am
mptfan wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:14 am
Crushtheturtle wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:09 am
Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop drinking.
LOL. Is that a reference to the movie Airplane!?
Surely, you must be joking.
Hmmm...that one doesn't work in print..."I'm not joking, and stop calling my surely"
by Greg in Idaho
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5575
Views: 1261203

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

OK, since no one else seems to have jumped on this one:

Weeeeeeeeeee!!!
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simulated bond fund, actual interest rates
Replies: 20
Views: 1692

Re: Simulated bond fund, actual interest rates

I don't think it makes much sense to consider price-only, either in stocks or in bonds, but since, unlike stocks, bonds are not expected to make their money from capital appreciation, ignoring bond interest is even more foolish than ignoring stock dividends. ^This is the thing I need to be reminded...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Jan 30, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5575
Views: 1261203

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I'm tempted to jump from my ground floor window...but I guess the door is easier
by Greg in Idaho
Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dalio says bonds have entered a bear market
Replies: 96
Views: 9363

Re: Dalio says bonds have entered a bear market

CULater wrote:
Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:14 pm
IT'S OFFICIAL! BOND MARKET NOW CLOSED DUE TO BEAR THREAT!!!

Image
I have my pepper spray
by Greg in Idaho
Sun Jan 28, 2018 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: increasing stock allocation in retirement
Replies: 16
Views: 877

Re: increasing stock allocation in retirement

keep in mind that the "normal" suggestion for allocations on this forum is to have your TIRA all or heavily invested in fixed income and your taxable account heavily invested in equities. In retirement and especially when RMDs are taken, the fixed income heavy TIRA will be shrinking over time and t...
by Greg in Idaho
Sun Jan 28, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you know much retirement income is needed?
Replies: 53
Views: 3762

Re: How do you know much retirement income is needed?

I know this doesn't fully address the OP's main concern about how much is needed in retirement, but I do find the section near the bottom of cfiresim , where you can add as many periodic expenses that you define (when and how much), rather handy. I put in a big expense every 5 years, guestimating th...
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?
Replies: 145
Views: 12634

Re: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?

Unicorns that are going public have increasing Annual Recurring Revenue, but most are losing money hand over fist. It seems like Wall Street just cares about increasing ARR and doesn't factor in whether or not companies are actually making money. The Rainbow Sector profits seem pretty elusive too.....
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did the bad news start in 2008?
Replies: 135
Views: 12615

Re: When did the bad news start in 2008?

Not trying to time the market here. When it's crashing, why not sell off in the early stage (before reaching the bottom), knowing it will eventually reach the bottom (you don't even need to time the bottom) and recover? You already have long-term gains and you can lock in those gains. I think I saw...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diary of a Bear Market
Replies: 24
Views: 2878

Re: Diary of a Bear Market

That Eastman Kodak stock looks tempting
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Jan 25, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dalio says bonds have entered a bear market
Replies: 96
Views: 9363

Re: Dalio says bonds have entered a bear market

billyt wrote:
Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:23 am
a "bond bear market" for traders is a bond bull market for Bogleheads.
say that 5 times, fast...dare ya
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Jan 25, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?
Replies: 237
Views: 20512

Re: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?

How could it be wrong? : "Somebody knows something" But I'm not sure how badly wrong it would be. This could be seen as part of the active/passive debate, as well as trend following - etc. As I've said before, I think the actual point is that the "nobody knows nothin" line, while a pretty effective ...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will a bond sell-off be the catalyst for a Major Market Correction?
Replies: 13
Views: 1442

Re: Will a bond sell-off be the catalyst for a Major Market Correction?

A sell-off in bonds could be "the Armageddon event for this year," Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst for Think Markets UK, wrote in a report Tuesday. Armageddon event, huh. It’s almost as if he was trying to appeal to the emotions. The apparently annual Armageddon event. I wonder if department stor...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd
Replies: 94
Views: 7668

Re: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd

i just thought of my co-worker, who sold all his equities and went 100% bonds and cash just before the election... I had a co-worker get wiped out in 08-09...got out just after that and never got back in... :shock: I run into him occasionally, and really like seeing him (good guy), but there is alw...
by Greg in Idaho
Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 40
Views: 6598

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?

This thread reinforces my amazement that we don't have more books (and other resources) like McClung's Living Off Your Money...Yes, there is info out there, but it still seems a bit like the Wild West in this part of the investing world...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you time the market when you have to?
Replies: 14
Views: 987

Re: How do you time the market when you have to?

I know timing the market is frowned upon in general, but there are times it's necessary- like when moving money around. I just pulled the trigger yesterday on a 401k rollover (had to be liquidated). This 401k was about half full of mid and small caps, which, of course, are up pretty good today. So,...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Talk me out of a 60/40 AA
Replies: 76
Views: 8346

Re: Talk me out of a 60/40 AA

dumbbunny wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:49 pm
nasrullah wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:39 pm


Found FireCalc https://www.firecalc.com/ and just lost the next week of my life :) Thanks, this is pretty amazing.
Try www.cfiresim.com, too, if you have time.
+1 on this
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are So Many Companies Announcing Share Buyback?
Replies: 32
Views: 3089

Re: Why Are So Many Companies Announcing Share Buyback?

Then there is this (and others like it in the past few months):

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saying-bye ... 1511438400

for the click averse, the subtitle is: "Companies in the S&P 500 are on pace to spend the least on buybacks since 2012"
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses
Replies: 17
Views: 2096

Re: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses

So what I'm hearing is: People working in the investment industry publish work on investment strategies that just happens to support their own bottom line.

Shocking...(sarcasm aside--I do appreciate the above analyses/commentary)
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods
Replies: 28
Views: 2352

Re: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods

Lots of intense focus on the best model, inputs, and assumptions, which is great...but there are no solid "answers", but merely information that has to be interpreted , which is at least as big of a challenge as what goes into and what comes out of your model. It is good to understand the possibilit...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.
Replies: 58
Views: 6492

Re: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.

I found this to be an interesting exercise. I am interested in comments from the forum, especially if you disagree with any of my observations. Let me know if you think I am missing something. I would say what you're missing is that you're searching for the most optimum portfolio to use, for one of...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 14043

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

The "math" I've done have said we could FIRE for a couple years now but the facts do not do much in way of minimizing the deep in the gut or mind emotional fear, especially with the unknowns of health insurance costs until age 65. I would like to add my +1 to this comment. I'm still on the youngish...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"
Replies: 69
Views: 9491

Re: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"

Some odd responses. I am happy for her. Lev +1 I agree. And it's threads like this one that remind me of the extent to which the Bogleheads forum sometimes seems like a kind of faith-based movement, a sort of Magic Markets/Always Invest belief system, and not very tolerant of differing views. Ms. W...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"
Replies: 69
Views: 9491

Re: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"

Some odd responses. I am happy for her. Lev +1 I agree. And it's threads like this one that remind me of the extent to which the Bogleheads forum sometimes seems like a kind of faith-based movement, a sort of Magic Markets/Always Invest belief system, and not very tolerant of differing views. Ms. W...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would David Swensen's advice be different if he wrote his book in 2017?
Replies: 4
Views: 1027

Re: Would David Swensen's advice be different if he wrote his book in 2017?

I thought you might take this in the direction of questioning rebalancing as a strategy...McClung's recent book uses rebalancing as a standard for common, but low performing strategies, compared to a number of alternatives he explores (most I think developed based on analyses since Unconventional Su...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Nov 01, 2017 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Identifying failure cycles in FIRECalc
Replies: 6
Views: 905

Re: Identifying failure cycles in FIRECalc

I second the cfiresim suggestion
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CDs, general questions, ladders, etc.
Replies: 39
Views: 2698

Re: CDs, general questions, ladders, etc.

I use the Fidelity window for CDs. I can sort by yield, see a variety of lenders in one place, and automate reinvestment if you like. Might worth a visit to check it out. The problem with shopping CDs that you purchase yourself, from a variety of lenders, is, in my case, the possibility of losing t...
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Trouble [NY Times: TIAA pushes clients to high fee products]
Replies: 50
Views: 5052

Re: TIAA Trouble

student wrote:
Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:46 am
I just want to mention that I only have one data point but the rep for my university has never called me or emailed me to solicit business. I did email him a few times over the years and he always responded promptly and there were no sales messages in his replies.
same here
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Oct 18, 2017 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: R/E Investing Approaches: Bogleheads vs MMM vs BiggerPockets?
Replies: 7
Views: 1172

Re: R/E Investing Approaches: Bogleheads vs MMM vs BiggerPockets?

I think the element of real estate investing on MMM may also be (partly) a feature of when it came about...as a number of folks with even modest means could get into the business, capitalizing on depressed prices post-crash, combined with the entrepreneurial/DIY spirit of those looking for an altern...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Oct 10, 2017 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a “bond bubble”?
Replies: 35
Views: 3658

Re: What is a “bond bubble”?

in discussing a bond fund ...if something shakes investors psychology and they decide to all get out of VBTLX, can't we have share prices decoupled from the value of the underlying bonds? I don't see how, since the share price is the per share NAV, which is based on the prices of the bonds. Of cour...
by Greg in Idaho
Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a “bond bubble”?
Replies: 35
Views: 3658

Re: What is a “bond bubble”?

in discussing a bond fund ...if something shakes investors psychology and they decide to all get out of VBTLX, can't we have share prices decoupled from the value of the underlying bonds? And if we add in the opposite prior to this...with prices being bid up, then followed by a drop, couldn't that b...
by Greg in Idaho
Mon Sep 25, 2017 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?
Replies: 99
Views: 7329

Re: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?

miles monroe wrote:
Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:33 am
alfaspider wrote:
Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:24 am
You are asking me if I want to invest in a barbarous relic or a fad. Can I choose neither?
this is the correct answer.
+1
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?
Replies: 36
Views: 10235

Re: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

It cracks me up to so regularly see threads like this, which go so clearly against the basic tenets of what BH seems to be about: keep it simple, keep it low cost, don't try to time/predict the market. And threads abound about complex portfolio tuning and market guesswork... :oops:
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Sep 14, 2017 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market
Replies: 41
Views: 5144

Re: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market

I appreciate the clarifications on terminology...and with them on the table, no big deal in using "tracking error" as short hand for the misleading influence of (actual) tracking error on investors. So I hope I'm making progress in avoiding that influence, since a few days ago, I saw all the major U...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market
Replies: 41
Views: 5144

Re: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market

Dbr, Everything you say is correct, but I think you're missing the point. We're not talking about informed investors critically looking at performance the way statisticians and pros should and would. Instead we're talking about the guy subject to the psychological difficulty of comparing his invest...
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taxable account, all about retirement
Replies: 23
Views: 3070

Re: Taxable account, all about retirement

OP - I know you say your 401K and TIRA are fully funded...but just a check to make sure whether you have any opportunities for supplemental tax advantaged savings options (I ask because it wasn't until I specifically inquired did I find out that I could contribute more through a 457b (in my case). D...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Aug 03, 2017 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Rise From 7,000 to 22,000
Replies: 49
Views: 7158

Re: The Rise From 7,000 to 22,000

A colleague and friend of mine got out of the market during the last crash...when the topic of the market came up in conversation about retirement, he looked at me with incredulity when I said I was heavily invested. He said they took a nasty beating and that he wasn't going to risk it again...he di...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Jun 30, 2017 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Eight Signs You are a Seasoned Investor by Johnathan Clements
Replies: 19
Views: 5067

Re: Eight Signs You are a Seasoned Investor by Johnathan Clements

I guess I'm fairly well seasoned...except the few times when I've had large chunks of cash to invest, then I have struggled a bit with this one: "You can coolly decide whether to buy or sell, without getting fixated on what’s happened in the market recently or what price you paid for a particular in...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Jun 23, 2017 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "10 Reasons Why Advisers Struggle To Keep Client Portfolios Simple"
Replies: 25
Views: 4640

Re: "10 Reasons Why Advisers Struggle To Keep Client Portfolios Simple"

I don't think it's mostly client driven, rather it's predominately adviser driven. Many advisers make portfolios complex to make investing seem difficult and complex. Because if their clients did indeed figure out how simple it is, they would ask why they need an expert to do it for them. Plus chur...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Jun 23, 2017 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bonds when one's investment horizon is long?
Replies: 59
Views: 5273

Re: Why bonds when one's investment horizon is long?

I'm curious for the veteran members of this board/the previous morningstar group. This board existed when the 2008/9 crisis hit. How many people were making threads or asking a lot of questions regarding their 100% stock portfolio plummeting? I'm wondering because after an 8 year bull-run, it seems...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???
Replies: 43
Views: 4620

Re: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???

I was assuming some SS income and therefore an appx 4% withdrawal rate in either case. But: For a 70 YO with $10m in assets, a 4% SWR would be 400k per year. This hypothetical person is not going to run out of money, period. I don't care how it's invested. Even assuming they were taking only from t...
by Greg in Idaho
Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???
Replies: 43
Views: 4620

Re: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???

A very helpful discussion here, thanks all.... I wonder if high equity allocations would get such wide endorsements in late 2008? ...ok, just spent some time back in late 2008 BH-Land, and while I didn't see much in the way of studies analyzing different AA's in the context of retirement, a great de...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue May 23, 2017 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lazy way to increase returns on cash in Vanguard
Replies: 22
Views: 2957

Re: Lazy way to increase returns on cash in Vanguard

Thanks for all the recommendations...although once again, I'd like to keep all the money in Vanguard (and really don't want to open new accounts at Ally, etc., move the money, move it back)...remember the lazy part...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue May 23, 2017 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lazy way to increase returns on cash in Vanguard
Replies: 22
Views: 2957

Lazy way to increase returns on cash in Vanguard

I have a few hundred K of money sitting in VMFXX (the default money market settlement fund at Vanguard)...much of it destined to DCA into VBTLX over a few years, and some as emergency fund. I really don't want to move that money out of Vanguard, but would like to increase my returns, above the curre...
by Greg in Idaho
Mon May 08, 2017 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nice piece by Christine Benz, "Not a portfolio emergency"
Replies: 14
Views: 3510

Re: Nice piece by Christine Benz, "Not a portfolio emergency"

The cited list of false fixes remind me of so many of the thread titles around here...lots of attempts to super-optimize the structure/content of one's portfolio (perhaps, I don't know, instead of consistently adding more to it).
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Mar 31, 2017 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Over last 6 years, has the Total Bond Market Index produced an overall slight loss?
Replies: 35
Views: 5692

Re: Over last 6 years, has the Total Bond Market Index produced an overall slight loss?

Thank you for the replies. Did you learn how to answer these questions for yourself on morningstar.com? I hope we don't start lecturing each other on this forum but maintain courtesy and understanding. Not everyone, including yours truly, has the same degree of financial expertise to read and analy...