Search found 110 matches

by Greg in Idaho
Fri May 24, 2019 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: NOOB trying to learn (yes im a tad late age 52)
Replies: 9
Views: 1933

Re: NOOB trying to learn (yes im a tad late age 52)

This^^^

And reading all around in the wiki is a great place to learn...that can take you a very long way on its own...
by Greg in Idaho
Sun Apr 14, 2019 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What websites do you use for the latest investing news?
Replies: 51
Views: 4135

Re: What websites do you use for the latest investing news?

Yep, news is noise...but I have found that checking the WSJ regularly for financial headlines and market numbers has been an excellent and rather stark ongoing reminder of the truth of the BH motto 'nobody knows nothin'
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Apr 09, 2019 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bengen Floor & Ceiling Withdrawal Method
Replies: 12
Views: 1455

Re: Bengen Floor & Ceiling Withdrawal Method

As many have mentioned, this is one of the areas (withdrawal/spending methods in retirement) that is underdeveloped, at least compared to resources on investment. Would love to see more work in this area, as McClung is not the most accessible treatment, and his work appears to have spurred a bunch o...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Apr 05, 2019 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility of spending
Replies: 27
Views: 1690

Re: Volatility of spending

I also think std deviation isn't really the way to think about this...percentages of "normal" year spending seems more on target, but when modeling with cfiresim, I found putting in dollar amounts at regular intervals for periodic known unkowns (car replacement, house repair/renovation/appliance rep...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Apr 04, 2019 7:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to ditch Ameriprise
Replies: 15
Views: 1809

Re: How to ditch Ameriprise

Thanks "TheDDC" for your input on how to ditch Ameriprise. This is my first entry into the world of Bogleheads. My wife and I were with Ameriprise for 20 years and are in the process of moving to a tax/retirement expert with TD Ameritrade. My new tax/retirement expert asked me to obtain Ameriprise ...
by Greg in Idaho
Sun Mar 31, 2019 8:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "The best and worst U.S. states for retirement"
Replies: 275
Views: 26794

Re: "The best and worst U.S. states for retirement"

One of the more ridiculous features of these state lists is how it lumps the whole state together...as if Yreka and San Diego are comparable...or that Sioux Falls and Pine Gap are...
by Greg in Idaho
Sun Mar 31, 2019 8:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "The best and worst U.S. states for retirement"
Replies: 275
Views: 26794

Re: "The best and worst U.S. states for retirement"

livesoft wrote:
Sat Mar 30, 2019 12:21 pm
I like to split my time between a couple of states: Bliss and Ignorance.
A false dichotomy
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Mar 29, 2019 7:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Would you change your stock/bond allocation if you had access to an unusually generous stable value fund? (TIAA Trad)
Replies: 48
Views: 2640

Re: Would you change your stock/bond allocation if you had access to an unusually generous stable value fund? (TIAA Trad

When I left the university, I moved everything I had in TIAA/CREF into TIAA Trad, treating it as part of my fixed income AA (replacing a chunk I had in a bond fund with an ER I didn't like in my taxable account). I'm all for the 4% option unless you really need the flexibility at the cost of a perce...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Half of American retirees have no savings
Replies: 49
Views: 2046

Re: The Retirement Crisis

but...using facts
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11010
Views: 1919774

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Kenkat wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:34 pm
Welcome back, U.S. stocks in free fall post. Haven’t seen you around as much lately, figured you’d be back at some point!
Yep...just here to check...all is normal
by Greg in Idaho
Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Calculators: variances in output
Replies: 13
Views: 1334

Re: Retirement Calculators: variances in output

The biggest challenge in my mind doesn't have to do with longevity or how to model market returns. It's how to best model living expenses over several decades. ^^^This, along with differences in age, retirement date, and life-span of spouses. On expenses: IMO, the options for variable spending with...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire? Looking for math help here.
Replies: 24
Views: 3014

Re: Can I retire? Looking for math help here.

At the risk of hi-jacking (and continuing to not answer the question posed)...I've been through a bunch of calculators, including the two above, and I can't find anything that sufficiently allows for: 1. different aged spouses with different project life-spans and different retirement dates 2. flexi...
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 517
Views: 36369

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

From a practical perspective, moving the bar that far means no long being in the game (for me at least), since it means "just" putting away over 700K more to be safe...not earning that much more, saving that much more. Sure, I'll get right on that. If we are just making theoretical points for illus...
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 517
Views: 36369

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

From a practical perspective, moving the bar that far means no long being in the game (for me at least), since it means "just" putting away over 700K more to be safe...not earning that much more, saving that much more. Sure, I'll get right on that. If we are just making theoretical points for illust...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 517
Views: 36369

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

I believe that the validity of a 3% rule can be determined by asking - "Is this rule best for me, or is it best for professional financial advisors?" You may find the answer without any simulations, assumptions or even basic arithmetic. I'm interested in this theory and don't necessarily disagree. ...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book on withdrawal strategies / retirement income?
Replies: 25
Views: 2794

Re: Book on withdrawal strategies / retirement income?

I'm considering buying How Much Can I Spend in Retirement?: A Guide to Investment-Based Retirement Income Strategies by Wade Pfau next. I found this pretty....not good. And definitely not practical. Could you give us the one paragraph expansion of that statement? The book is mostly a collection of ...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Dec 25, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)
Replies: 255
Views: 24086

Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

letsgobobby wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 6:12 pm

Usually stocks need a reason to collapse 50%; something beyond overvaluation alone.

I just don’t see exactly what could bring on a 50% decline from 26,000 (another 40% from here) to 13,000.
Curious WHEN we became fully aware of the reasons for the last big drops
by Greg in Idaho
Sun Dec 02, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm up 5% ytd and I will take it
Replies: 55
Views: 6352

Re: I'm up 5% ytd and I will take it

No offense, but who cares? Not sure how many times this has to be mentioned, but seems to be often as folks surprisingly even on this board have a very hard time understanding what "passive investor" means. Good luck. I'm still trying to get beyond the dismay at how much of this board consists of d...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson
Replies: 49
Views: 6340

Re: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson

So good to see that pretty much any mention of the "4% rule" (even when it is not a necessary element of the question posed) still devolves into the same old debates about what it is, whether/how it is a "rule", whether it is suitable to follow, and how/why/why not...often with some ruffled feathers...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities
Replies: 26
Views: 3206

Re: Annuities

I think the other main variable, other than the type/structure of the annuity (summarized nicely above), is the quality and financial health of the particular company, which is worth some research... I have a chunk with TIAA as that was my option...but as mentioned, they seem to be considered one of...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Oct 04, 2018 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bond index and rising interest rates
Replies: 17
Views: 2152

Re: bond index and rising interest rates

Interest rates are going up. Existing bonds prices are going down. Maybe no. Expected increases are already baked in. Only if rates rise faster than expected would the NAV fall. If expected increases are already baked in why is Total Bond steadily falling, week by week? yes...the "already baked in"...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any difference? (Re-balancing AA)
Replies: 14
Views: 1092

Re: Is there any difference? (Re-balancing AA)

crumbone wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:51 pm


"Buy and hold" really just means "don't sell for any reason other than rebalancing, tax loss harvesting, or retirement."
This strikes me as very reasonable...and would add RMD's to that list
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying VWIUX Today [Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Muni Bond]
Replies: 48
Views: 5491

Re: Buying VWIUX Today

For more market timing fun please note that the FOMC will meet next week and raise the FFR. Everybody knows that, but what they don't know is which adjectives and adverbs will change in the FOMC summary statement released on Wednesday. Perhaps a game of BINGO is in order, using a selection of poten...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying VWIUX Today [Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Muni Bond]
Replies: 48
Views: 5491

Re: Buying VWIUX Today

I have a chunk left to DCA/buy dips - into bonds. Bought the low in May, and am watching closely as sale prices return...but I am in no rush
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior
Replies: 26
Views: 2773

Re: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior

Yet another in the series: "I (and/or my industry) profits from X, therefore X is good (despite the appearances to the contrary)"

Funny that the blurb for the author even says: "He may have a stake in the areas he writes about."
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".
Replies: 36
Views: 13952

Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

There goes a bunch more hours online...damn you!

I had seen so many references to PV here but never bothered, because cfiresim offered all I wanted...except more
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Zero ER Funds are underperforming their equivalent premium class index funds
Replies: 62
Views: 9765

Re: Fidelity Zero ER Funds are underperforming their equivalent premium class index funds

so if your investing time-frame is 3 weeks, then you might want to think twice...got it
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Aug 02, 2018 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule .. but when?
Replies: 35
Views: 4365

Re: 4% rule .. but when?

AlohaJoe wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 6:56 am
. There's no retirement police ...
not so sure about that
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Jul 25, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are Economic Predictions Every Useful?"
Replies: 6
Views: 573

Re: "Are Economic Predictions Every Useful?"

I have always been amazed, particularly in academic circles, what economists get away with...often along the lines of "according to these assumptions, some of which we know to be false, a number of others are our best guesses, and all of which leave out a number of factors that we know to be importa...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I may have understood why it's so hard to save and invest
Replies: 81
Views: 14053

Re: I may have understood why it's so hard to save and invest

This is one advantage of automating the process. Do the work once to have the money automatically taken out of your paycheck (or bank account). Then you can sit back and relax while you slowly build up your investments. Try not to look at the balance too often, especially when the market is going d...
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds
Replies: 80
Views: 8429

Re: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds

In my opinion either option is going to work out just fine - the difference between the two will likely to end up being small enough to be lost in the noise of your investment returns. As such, I prefer bond funds because they are so much simpler to manage. This is about where I'm at...and while yo...
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New to investing and just got an inheritance
Replies: 22
Views: 1881

Re: New to investing and just got an inheritance

I've been through this, and just want to reiterate some points already made. 1. Take your time and trust that you can figure things out, even if it seems daunting/confusing right now. The great resources here (and the common links on investing you will see) are all you need. Ask questions when you g...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 184
Views: 27347

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

ah...the 4% Rule...

good to see we have moved past the endless versions of "that's too risky"..."no, that's too conservative" back and forth.
by Greg in Idaho
Sun May 20, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has Firecalc or I-ORP altered your retirement plans?
Replies: 35
Views: 4649

Re: Has Firecalc or I-ORP altered your retirement plans?

I have spent lots of time with cfiresim and it has made a significant contribution to my comfort level with retiring. In particular, the process of starting with my best estimates for numbers, then doing a series of iterations with increasingly conservative numbers, has been illuminating. ...now let...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed May 16, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%
Replies: 106
Views: 13179

Re: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%

I'm sorry, it still does not make sense. I am perfectly fine with stocks dropping 30% because they have the potential to rise 30% the other way. Bonds will never have that potential, which is why I agree with some other posters that a penalty free CD may be a better option. I don't know what the pu...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Apr 19, 2018 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "5 Common Misconceptions About Index Funds"
Replies: 4
Views: 2312

Re: "5 Common Misconceptions About Index Funds"

Bogleheads: We love index mutual funds invented by our mentor, Jack Bogle. Index funds are not all alike and many misconceptions prevail. Christine Benz, Director of Personal Finance at Morningstar and a member of our Panel of Experts at Boglehead Conventions, explains five misconceptions: 1. All I...
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Financial Trends Persist
Replies: 51
Views: 5041

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Financial Trends Persist

"Sophisticated Noise" Much like the often referred to noise of the everyday financial media...but wrapped in extensive and sophisticated language. Like the everyday noise, if you listen to it, it tempts you to do something you otherwise would not do investment-wise, and (quite possibly) end up with ...
by Greg in Idaho
Sun Mar 18, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DCA falling bond funds?
Replies: 20
Views: 2793

Re: DCA falling bond funds?

I happened to liquidate my bond holdings when prices were at a peak (summer 2016), and have been DCAing back into them since, buying clear dips (but not into long bonds). I am going to keep doing so...and will keep reading posts from Nispirius, who has what I find to be the most compelling accounts ...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Count Out Commodities
Replies: 51
Views: 7875

Re: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Count Out Commodities

It seems to me (also) that this kind of stuff goes against BH basics: add complexity and cost for potential small hypothetical gains...another, more sophisticated form of noise, which if listened to, may lead one to either do more fiddling (a common source of mistakes), or be tempted to hire a profe...
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Feb 24, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Draw Down Plan - Stanford Longevity Report
Replies: 11
Views: 1124

Re: Stanford papers on retirement withdrawal strategies

I just took a quick look at that Stanford site...and saw regular references to retirement planning based on % of pre-retirement income (rather than spending). That seems like a red flag to me...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 37
Views: 7604

Re: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

I believe I understand that with (**predictions of**) increasing rates and higher inflation, risks of bond values dropping is there...but lower prices and higher yields have an upside don't they?

Wouldn't it be better to be being bonds or bond funds now, compared to a year ago?
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11010
Views: 1919774

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I think correction followed by the rebound is providing a decent opportunity for folks who just got a gut check and thought "I really wish I had rebalanced and not let things ride for so long" to act on that wish... And the correction is providing a partial answer for those who regularly ask here, "...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "3 Investing Mistakes to Avoid"
Replies: 20
Views: 3855

Re: "3 Investing Mistakes to Avoid"

"Investors spend a massive amount of time trying to make all the right moves."
This forum seems to resemble his remark...I need to stop coming here
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11010
Views: 1919774

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I wish a moderator would put this 7 year old thread out of its misery and lock it. If you don't like it, why read it? It's not like there's a shortage of other threads. You don't have to read a thread to be annoyed by it - it gets bumped to the top whenever someone posts in it and there is no abili...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where Are The 100% Equity Bulls? BND up .44%
Replies: 47
Views: 5494

Re: Where Are The 100% Equity Bulls? BND up .44%

I've been 70% equities, and for the past few months, wanting to move to 60%, but DW poo-poo'd the idea, and so I just said "let it ride."

Was feeling some regret until running the numbers... a small percentage of a 10% shift in AA doesn't add up to much, so...meh
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11010
Views: 1919774

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

MoonOrb wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:24 am
mptfan wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:14 am
Crushtheturtle wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:09 am
Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop drinking.
LOL. Is that a reference to the movie Airplane!?
Surely, you must be joking.
Hmmm...that one doesn't work in print..."I'm not joking, and stop calling my surely"
by Greg in Idaho
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11010
Views: 1919774

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

OK, since no one else seems to have jumped on this one:

Weeeeeeeeeee!!!
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simulated bond fund, actual interest rates
Replies: 20
Views: 2372

Re: Simulated bond fund, actual interest rates

I don't think it makes much sense to consider price-only, either in stocks or in bonds, but since, unlike stocks, bonds are not expected to make their money from capital appreciation, ignoring bond interest is even more foolish than ignoring stock dividends. ^This is the thing I need to be reminded...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Jan 30, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11010
Views: 1919774

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I'm tempted to jump from my ground floor window...but I guess the door is easier
by Greg in Idaho
Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dalio says bonds have entered a bear market
Replies: 98
Views: 12296

Re: Dalio says bonds have entered a bear market

CULater wrote:
Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:14 pm
IT'S OFFICIAL! BOND MARKET NOW CLOSED DUE TO BEAR THREAT!!!

Image
I have my pepper spray