Search found 131 matches

by Greg in Idaho
Wed May 20, 2020 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you have access to TIAA-Traditional, should you own *any* bonds right now?
Replies: 14
Views: 944

Re: If you have access to TIAA-Traditional, should you own *any* bonds right now?

All of my 401/403/457 funds are in TRAD (moved to a different job, so no longer contributing), and I couldn't be more pleased to have that chunk of ballast quietly increasing consistently as my largest portion of my fixed AA (I have averaged around 4%). That has been the case for some time, but now ...
by Greg in Idaho
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 492
Views: 41836

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

This is going to sound a little strange, but I was thinking of retiring in 2021 but I was very nervous about it. Now, I've stayed the course through the recent turmoil and my portfolio has suffered accordingly. But, even though I have less money than I did, I think I'm more confident about retiring...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5725
Views: 489123

Re: New Bull Market!

aaahhhhh....VIX
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quarterly distributions
Replies: 3
Views: 249

Quarterly distributions

I admit to not fully understanding how this downturn will affect quarterly distributions...I had been looking forward to making use of mine in April from my Fido funds. I had turned off my automatic re-investment options in part to pare back my equity exposure some time ago, and because we could use...
by Greg in Idaho
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Stocks WILL Go Lower Than it is Now...
Replies: 133
Views: 11317

Re: If Stocks WILL Go Lower Than it is Now...

Longdog wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:33 pm
jolmscheid wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:09 pm
I fully understand not wanting to "time the market,"
I'm not really sure you do...
Beat me to it...it seems we have a flood of "I understand I shouldn't try to time the market, but why shouldn't I try to time the market" posts
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]
Replies: 372
Views: 25767

Re: Why are people selling? Disappointed in people here...

You do know that this is the internet, and that even contributors to the BH forum need not actually be BH's (and even then, we're all human beings...I think...)?
by Greg in Idaho
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 492
Views: 41836

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

I was feeling rather giddy about the recent run-up, esp. the last three years...so much money just added on. In my early 50's, I have been paring back our AA to ~60% equities, but felt a really strong urge to pare it back much more over the last few months...'won the game' by a decent margin. But I ...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help!! The 4% SWR in real life....
Replies: 23
Views: 2874

Re: Help!! The 4% SWR in real life....

Lots of strategies...here are some misc. resources on a few: https://jlcollinsnh.com/2014/08/25/stocks-part-xxvi-pulling-the-4/ https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/04/19/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-13-dynamic-stock-bond-allocation-through-prime-harvesting/ https://www.bogleheads...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 492
Views: 41836

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

What is "Guaranteed" in your AA graph? TIAA Traditional. Currently earning an average interest rate of 3.95% across all my "vintages" I thought I recognized that AA chart format/fonts... I have grown to love my chunk of TIAA Traditional - earning pretty much the same rate...as the equities in our p...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 492
Views: 41836

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Om.... I had planned to rebalance and slightly reduce our equity allocation for the last few weeks, but we can only do that without a taxable event in my wife's retirement accounts, and it just didn't happen...but even if I had that would have been at most a 5% shift, which wouldn't have made a big ...
by Greg in Idaho
Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18828
Views: 2631521

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I've moved some money into stocks today from a large pile of dry powder I've been sitting on for a while, but will wait for a much larger drop to do anything substantive. I always find these sort of moves interesting consider the market was at this level in the very recent past; why didn't you inve...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a house, what is my AA now?
Replies: 152
Views: 7925

Re: I bought a house, what is my AA now?

So how does this scenario change if the real estate purchase was for a business (not a home)? We are in a very similar boat to the OP, except we spent about 10% of our total portfolio, all from bond funds, to purchase a property that my new business will occupy. Now we are low on the fixed income si...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Least worst fixed option for Roth IRA at Fidelity
Replies: 2
Views: 363

Re: Least worst fixed option for Roth IRA at Fidelity

FXNAX is a great, low cost, choice. If you don't like corporates, have you considered FUAMX (Intermediate Treasury Index)? https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/31635V257 Good one...I imagine that the last time I compared, I was pretty laser focused on low ER's...but the .005% does...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Least worst fixed option for Roth IRA at Fidelity
Replies: 2
Views: 363

Least worst fixed option for Roth IRA at Fidelity

As we near retirement, we are working to increase our AA on the fixed income side, and the stock run up is making that challenging. I've stopped having our stock funds dividends reinvested automatically, and now the only space we have for adjustments without tax liabilities is in our Roth IRA's held...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Prefer Dividends Over Stock Buybacks
Replies: 41
Views: 3545

Re: I Prefer Dividends Over Stock Buybacks

Not only are dividends better for most stockholders, profits could be better used to pay down corporate debt. https://hbr.org/2020/01/why-stock-buybacks-are-dangerous-for-the-economy What you are saying here is that the capital structure of these businesses is becoming overleveraged and they do not...
by Greg in Idaho
Sun Dec 15, 2019 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retail investors are re-balancing - NOT bailing on stocks
Replies: 18
Views: 1953

Re: Retail investors are re-balancing - NOT bailing on stocks

[/quote] Finance people are experts at finding factoids that seem interesting but mean nothing. The other day, CNBC took my friend to randomly show strategies on some stocks. He is not even a stock analyst! [/quote] Yep, much like sports statisticians..."that was the first time in history that a lef...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Estimated Year-End Distributions
Replies: 71
Views: 8563

Re: Vanguard Estimated Year-End Distributions

I'm clearly missing something...as I went to Fidelity's list (which needs a search function), and their total market index shows distribution dates in April, as does the fund info. pages...but I received the year end distributions on 12/14 last year. A little help?
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Importance of Simplicity"
Replies: 36
Views: 5339

Re: "The Importance of Simplicity"

Even on Bogleheads lots of ink (proverbial) is spilled striving for better results through sectors, factors, etc. in the hope a more sophisticated approach will prove fruitful. If early in your investment life you were promised that at your chosen allocation you would outperform 70% of active manag...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18828
Views: 2631521

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

October is often a spooky month for stocks. Don't know why. September can also be scary. True. So can February, July, and November. Sometimes June and April can be too and on occasion May, January, August, and March. And don't forget the crash of December 26th, 2018. Days that end in 'y' are especi...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three most important elements of investment success
Replies: 67
Views: 7197

Re: Three most important elements of investment success

Complexity is the mother of simplicity. The more I read on Bogleheads about the optimal blend of 37 different factors in a portfolio, the more I'm reminded that none of that matters to your success. The three key elements of investment success are: 1) Spend below your means and save the excess. 2) ...
by Greg in Idaho
Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Simple Bogleheads Retirement Using Variable Percentage Withdrawals (VPW Forward Test)
Replies: 223
Views: 43622

Re: A Simple Bogleheads Retirement Using Variable Percentage Withdrawals (VPW Forward Test)

Thanks a bunch for this...and to show no good deed goes unpunished(uncriticized?)...

no Roth???
by Greg in Idaho
Fri May 24, 2019 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: NOOB trying to learn (yes im a tad late age 52)
Replies: 9
Views: 2262

Re: NOOB trying to learn (yes im a tad late age 52)

This^^^

And reading all around in the wiki is a great place to learn...that can take you a very long way on its own...
by Greg in Idaho
Sun Apr 14, 2019 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What websites do you use for the latest investing news?
Replies: 51
Views: 4664

Re: What websites do you use for the latest investing news?

Yep, news is noise...but I have found that checking the WSJ regularly for financial headlines and market numbers has been an excellent and rather stark ongoing reminder of the truth of the BH motto 'nobody knows nothin'
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Apr 09, 2019 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bengen Floor & Ceiling Withdrawal Method
Replies: 12
Views: 1907

Re: Bengen Floor & Ceiling Withdrawal Method

As many have mentioned, this is one of the areas (withdrawal/spending methods in retirement) that is underdeveloped, at least compared to resources on investment. Would love to see more work in this area, as McClung is not the most accessible treatment, and his work appears to have spurred a bunch o...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Apr 05, 2019 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility of spending
Replies: 27
Views: 1937

Re: Volatility of spending

I also think std deviation isn't really the way to think about this...percentages of "normal" year spending seems more on target, but when modeling with cfiresim, I found putting in dollar amounts at regular intervals for periodic known unkowns (car replacement, house repair/renovation/appliance rep...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Apr 04, 2019 7:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to ditch Ameriprise
Replies: 15
Views: 2064

Re: How to ditch Ameriprise

Thanks "TheDDC" for your input on how to ditch Ameriprise. This is my first entry into the world of Bogleheads. My wife and I were with Ameriprise for 20 years and are in the process of moving to a tax/retirement expert with TD Ameritrade. My new tax/retirement expert asked me to obtain Ameriprise ...
by Greg in Idaho
Sun Mar 31, 2019 8:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "The best and worst U.S. states for retirement"
Replies: 303
Views: 37766

Re: "The best and worst U.S. states for retirement"

One of the more ridiculous features of these state lists is how it lumps the whole state together...as if Yreka and San Diego are comparable...or that Sioux Falls and Pine Gap are...
by Greg in Idaho
Sun Mar 31, 2019 8:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "The best and worst U.S. states for retirement"
Replies: 303
Views: 37766

Re: "The best and worst U.S. states for retirement"

livesoft wrote:
Sat Mar 30, 2019 12:21 pm
I like to split my time between a couple of states: Bliss and Ignorance.
A false dichotomy
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Mar 29, 2019 7:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Would you change your stock/bond allocation if you had access to an unusually generous stable value fund? (TIAA Trad)
Replies: 48
Views: 3000

Re: Would you change your stock/bond allocation if you had access to an unusually generous stable value fund? (TIAA Trad

When I left the university, I moved everything I had in TIAA/CREF into TIAA Trad, treating it as part of my fixed income AA (replacing a chunk I had in a bond fund with an ER I didn't like in my taxable account). I'm all for the 4% option unless you really need the flexibility at the cost of a perce...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Half of American retirees have no savings
Replies: 49
Views: 2342

Re: The Retirement Crisis

but...using facts
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18828
Views: 2631521

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Kenkat wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:34 pm
Welcome back, U.S. stocks in free fall post. Haven’t seen you around as much lately, figured you’d be back at some point!
Yep...just here to check...all is normal
by Greg in Idaho
Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Calculators: variances in output
Replies: 13
Views: 1541

Re: Retirement Calculators: variances in output

The biggest challenge in my mind doesn't have to do with longevity or how to model market returns. It's how to best model living expenses over several decades. ^^^This, along with differences in age, retirement date, and life-span of spouses. On expenses: IMO, the options for variable spending with...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire? Looking for math help here.
Replies: 24
Views: 3332

Re: Can I retire? Looking for math help here.

At the risk of hi-jacking (and continuing to not answer the question posed)...I've been through a bunch of calculators, including the two above, and I can't find anything that sufficiently allows for: 1. different aged spouses with different project life-spans and different retirement dates 2. flexi...
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 699
Views: 56769

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

From a practical perspective, moving the bar that far means no long being in the game (for me at least), since it means "just" putting away over 700K more to be safe...not earning that much more, saving that much more. Sure, I'll get right on that. If we are just making theoretical points for illus...
by Greg in Idaho
Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 699
Views: 56769

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

From a practical perspective, moving the bar that far means no long being in the game (for me at least), since it means "just" putting away over 700K more to be safe...not earning that much more, saving that much more. Sure, I'll get right on that. If we are just making theoretical points for illust...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 699
Views: 56769

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

I believe that the validity of a 3% rule can be determined by asking - "Is this rule best for me, or is it best for professional financial advisors?" You may find the answer without any simulations, assumptions or even basic arithmetic. I'm interested in this theory and don't necessarily disagree. ...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book on withdrawal strategies / retirement income?
Replies: 25
Views: 3200

Re: Book on withdrawal strategies / retirement income?

I'm considering buying How Much Can I Spend in Retirement?: A Guide to Investment-Based Retirement Income Strategies by Wade Pfau next. I found this pretty....not good. And definitely not practical. Could you give us the one paragraph expansion of that statement? The book is mostly a collection of ...
by Greg in Idaho
Tue Dec 25, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)
Replies: 514
Views: 50160

Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

letsgobobby wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 6:12 pm

Usually stocks need a reason to collapse 50%; something beyond overvaluation alone.

I just don’t see exactly what could bring on a 50% decline from 26,000 (another 40% from here) to 13,000.
Curious WHEN we became fully aware of the reasons for the last big drops
by Greg in Idaho
Sun Dec 02, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm up 5% ytd and I will take it
Replies: 55
Views: 6569

Re: I'm up 5% ytd and I will take it

No offense, but who cares? Not sure how many times this has to be mentioned, but seems to be often as folks surprisingly even on this board have a very hard time understanding what "passive investor" means. Good luck. I'm still trying to get beyond the dismay at how much of this board consists of d...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson
Replies: 49
Views: 6696

Re: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson

So good to see that pretty much any mention of the "4% rule" (even when it is not a necessary element of the question posed) still devolves into the same old debates about what it is, whether/how it is a "rule", whether it is suitable to follow, and how/why/why not...often with some ruffled feathers...
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities
Replies: 26
Views: 3370

Re: Annuities

I think the other main variable, other than the type/structure of the annuity (summarized nicely above), is the quality and financial health of the particular company, which is worth some research... I have a chunk with TIAA as that was my option...but as mentioned, they seem to be considered one of...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Oct 04, 2018 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bond index and rising interest rates
Replies: 17
Views: 2218

Re: bond index and rising interest rates

Interest rates are going up. Existing bonds prices are going down. Maybe no. Expected increases are already baked in. Only if rates rise faster than expected would the NAV fall. If expected increases are already baked in why is Total Bond steadily falling, week by week? yes...the "already baked in"...
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any difference? (Re-balancing AA)
Replies: 14
Views: 1151

Re: Is there any difference? (Re-balancing AA)

crumbone wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:51 pm


"Buy and hold" really just means "don't sell for any reason other than rebalancing, tax loss harvesting, or retirement."
This strikes me as very reasonable...and would add RMD's to that list
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying VWIUX Today [Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Muni Bond]
Replies: 48
Views: 6122

Re: Buying VWIUX Today

For more market timing fun please note that the FOMC will meet next week and raise the FFR. Everybody knows that, but what they don't know is which adjectives and adverbs will change in the FOMC summary statement released on Wednesday. Perhaps a game of BINGO is in order, using a selection of poten...
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying VWIUX Today [Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Muni Bond]
Replies: 48
Views: 6122

Re: Buying VWIUX Today

I have a chunk left to DCA/buy dips - into bonds. Bought the low in May, and am watching closely as sale prices return...but I am in no rush
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior
Replies: 26
Views: 2971

Re: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior

Yet another in the series: "I (and/or my industry) profits from X, therefore X is good (despite the appearances to the contrary)"

Funny that the blurb for the author even says: "He may have a stake in the areas he writes about."
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".
Replies: 36
Views: 18202

Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

There goes a bunch more hours online...damn you!

I had seen so many references to PV here but never bothered, because cfiresim offered all I wanted...except more
by Greg in Idaho
Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Zero ER Funds are underperforming their equivalent premium class index funds
Replies: 62
Views: 10329

Re: Fidelity Zero ER Funds are underperforming their equivalent premium class index funds

so if your investing time-frame is 3 weeks, then you might want to think twice...got it
by Greg in Idaho
Thu Aug 02, 2018 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule .. but when?
Replies: 35
Views: 4445

Re: 4% rule .. but when?

AlohaJoe wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 6:56 am
. There's no retirement police ...
not so sure about that
by Greg in Idaho
Wed Jul 25, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are Economic Predictions Every Useful?"
Replies: 6
Views: 628

Re: "Are Economic Predictions Every Useful?"

I have always been amazed, particularly in academic circles, what economists get away with...often along the lines of "according to these assumptions, some of which we know to be false, a number of others are our best guesses, and all of which leave out a number of factors that we know to be importa...