Search found 169 matches

by Crisium
Fri Dec 14, 2018 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8615
Views: 1680281

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Crisium wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:48 am
Is it too much to hope for a 51 pt drop in the S&P500 today? It's been so long since my 401k bought below 2600.
Wow, it did exactly what I wanted. −50.59 points for 2,599.95.

Time to open my hedge fund. :moneybag
by Crisium
Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8615
Views: 1680281

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Is it too much to hope for a 51 pt drop in the S&P500 today? It's been so long since my 401k bought below 2600.
by Crisium
Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession Coming
Replies: 49
Views: 6030

Re: Recession Coming

Near or current retirees are different, but for us accumulators remember: time in the market beats market timing. How wonderful would it be to buy prices at peak year 2000 or 2007 prices? It may have felt back back then for years: but imagine if you could buy now. S&P500 at ~1500 when it's 2600+ now...
by Crisium
Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8615
Views: 1680281

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Back in the red, they listened to me. :happy
by Crisium
Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8615
Views: 1680281

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Rally you say? But I want to buy the dip Friday. And Jan 2 in my IRA.

Someone tell those algorithms to keep the market down and not rally until Jan 3rd.
by Crisium
Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8615
Views: 1680281

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Next 401k purchase is Friday COB. Please stay below 2600 (SP500), I haven't bought that low in over a year. Heck, I've bought below 2700 this year only a few times due to bad luck with my 2x monthly 401k purchases.
by Crisium
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8615
Views: 1680281

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I must be missing something. I don't quite understand all the freaking out about today, I looked at my portfolio in Quicken just now, it looks like my overall portfolio value just dropped back down to about where it was on... ...Wait for it..... ... way back on 11/28/2018. No additions or withdrawa...
by Crisium
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8615
Views: 1680281

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Stocks are almost as low as 13 days ago.

Panic!
by Crisium
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8615
Views: 1680281

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:30 am
I hope Santa Clause waits until after January 1st to rally. That's when the IRAs are funded. Buy low.
Please. I want my IRA buy date to be low. Jan 2 2018 was still one of the lower days for the year (it beat monthly DCAs btw), so it worked well last time.
by Crisium
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who else is getting excited? [about the market]
Replies: 145
Views: 12609

Re: Who else is getting excited?

It's a great time for early accumulators. As much as we'd like the stock market to be a zero duration bond with consistent 7-10% growth, it's not. But if it continues to average close to that range in the long run, then this is merely a pause in the growth and an opportunity for buying on discount. ...
by Crisium
Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today was a good day to be diversified
Replies: 21
Views: 4292

Re: Today was a good day to be diversified

International markets didn't has as much time to react yesterday, since most of them close earlier. Check them out today.

Long term treasuries really are a diversified like few other things, but the volatility isn't for me.
by Crisium
Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8615
Views: 1680281

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Now THIS is a freefall! Too bad I don't have any spare cash to put in the market today. Maybe the market won't recover by the time my regular 401k and HSA contributions hit next week. I hope for the same. The SP500 has dipped into the 2600s a few times in the past couple months but it always recove...
by Crisium
Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve = Inverted
Replies: 58
Views: 5996

Re: Yield Curve = Inverted

"First time inverted since 2007" is misleading. The actual first day the 3 yr and 5 yr inverted during that cycle was 12/20/2005 when the S&P was at 1260 (It peaked at 1565 almost 2 years later). The recession didn't start until 24 months after inversion in December 2007. Nevertheless, you could sa...
by Crisium
Mon Dec 03, 2018 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dollar Cost Averaging or Lump Sum in Current Market
Replies: 30
Views: 2390

Re: Dollar Cost Averaging or Lump Sum in Current Market

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-04-18/lump-sum-investing-is-the-best-strategy-except-in-this-market A lump sum on April 18th (article date) would have outperformed a DCA from April 18th and every following ~18th of the month so far through November. An investor who was about to do l...
by Crisium
Mon Dec 03, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dollar Cost Averaging or Lump Sum in Current Market
Replies: 30
Views: 2390

Re: Dollar Cost Averaging or Lump Sum in Current Market

If you had lump summed a significant chunk of your taxable assets in your mid 20s in 1998 into an S&P fund as I did, and waited 12 years for it to recover to its original investment value, you might have a different view of lump sum. I like my stocks to be diversified, and it's not a bad thing to h...
by Crisium
Fri Nov 23, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 99050

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

...the idea that foreign stock markets do not have high correlations with the U.S. stock market has in itself come into doubt. The fact is that, while the correlation was indeed at low levels (about 0.20) during the two decades ending in 1992, the correlation has since leaped up to 0.60. Who is to ...
by Crisium
Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [The Economist: Should investors diversify away from America?]
Replies: 24
Views: 3841

Re: [The Economist: Should investors diversify away from America?]

So the article suggested this: 1/3 US 1/3 Ex-US Developed 1/3 Emerging markets Is anyone kind enough to backtest this? I know this is a prediction for the future and is not based on the past, but the arguments in that article such as "America’s stockmarket cannot outperform forever" and to build a p...
by Crisium
Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 411
Views: 46935

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

tmcc wrote:
Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:36 am
yet recommendations here blindly follow lump sum investing . anyone who lumped in aug - oct has taken a big hit
Yet lump sum on Jan 2 would still be ahead of DCA for the year. :confused
by Crisium
Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's in your Investor Policy Statement about Bear Markets?
Replies: 52
Views: 3511

Re: What's in your Investor Policy Statement about Bear Markets?

Stick to the plan and if I get intro trouble, then my emergency fund will bail me out.
by Crisium
Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 99050

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

To those that have used these terms, at what point does tilting away from the world market cap become a mental health issue? US/Int of 100/0 has been described as archaic, xenophobic, jingoistic, cognitive dissonance and hypocritical (I'm not introducing any of these terms). Is it just 100/0, and do...
by Crisium
Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Early Retirement Make You Live Longer?
Replies: 70
Views: 4485

Re: Does Early Retirement Make You Live Longer?

Looks like the link to the study within that article is dead. Did some searching and found this page questioning the legitimacy of the study (which appears to be over 35 years old as of today): https://www.intmath.com/blog/mathematics/retiring-early-means-a-longer-life-an-urban-myth-822 Possible Urb...
by Crisium
Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 99050

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

There was a good post in one of the other international threads (the DISASTER one I think) that drew a pretty good conclusion. Increasingly, US and International are growing more correlated, but Int has lower returns, more standard deviation, and often when it does outperform it is due to currency f...
by Crisium
Thu Nov 01, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is market cap weighting a dumb idea?
Replies: 64
Views: 3053

Re: Is market cap weighting a dumb idea?

The premise of this is dumb. I'd like to see the actual data, but what he is presumably doing in this exercise doing is buying the largest cap stocks at or near their tops and holding on to them all the way back down. So he missed their ride up the s&p but takes the full ride down. He is comparing ...
by Crisium
Wed Oct 31, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 411
Views: 46935

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Pretty sure my 401k contribution buys at the end of the trading day. Sigh, once I again I miss out on the bottom (for now). I want to buy on a deep discount!
by Crisium
Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8615
Views: 1680281

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

My 401k buys on Monday so I'm still hoping for the bears to take over today. Please.
by Crisium
Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 658
Views: 83584

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

Thirdly, a million is absolutely special. If someone handed me a million dollars, I'd retire today at age 34. Sometimes the life style inflation here is jarring to us more MMM types. $1M is still special, and living with a $40k income ($1M 4% SWR) still provides a better life than emperors ever had...
by Crisium
Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 411
Views: 46935

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Dow and S&P 500 soaring to new highs. Enjoying the ride. Wonder when will this end and don’t want to think about that😁 Not a good thing if you're in accumulation phase. But if you're close to your target to retire, then I'd raise my glass to you :beer I can relate to your comment more than i'd like...
by Crisium
Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds
Replies: 49
Views: 2863

Re: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds

TSP rebalances daily. So if there's a 50% stock decline when you're 58, yes the L fund will be selling bonds/G Fund and buying stocks during the decent. But what I'm talking about is if there's a long bear and the stocks stay far, far below historic lows for a few years. During this time, the L fund...
by Crisium
Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds
Replies: 49
Views: 2863

Re: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds

Am I understanding this correctly? "When the average participant is age 58, the fund will be 60 percent stocks, and it will bottom out at 30 percent equities at age 63." Age 58 = 60/40 Stocks/Bonds Age 63 = 30/70 Stocks/Bonds So if a deep bear market hits at age 58, you will be selling half your sto...
by Crisium
Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New era for TSP "I" Fund?
Replies: 16
Views: 2319

Re: New era for TSP "I" Fund?

Oh that's good to hear.

I thought it was this, which is what my 401k international benchmarks:
https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/86 ... 29ed5adbbf

I still have a pittance in my TSP so I'm looking forward to the change from EAFE.
by Crisium
Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New era for TSP "I" Fund?
Replies: 16
Views: 2319

Re: New era for TSP "I" Fund?

Keep in mind this index does not cover any small-caps.
by Crisium
Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I think my father has a gambling problem
Replies: 78
Views: 6903

Re: I think my father has a gambling problem

The troubling part to me is that, after a year away, you came to visit for 4 days and your father left for half of that to be at a casino. I kind of feel like whether or not he was gambling responsibly is beside the point, he chose visiting the casino (a place he could visit any day) over a rare op...
by Crisium
Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k Fund Allocation Help
Replies: 6
Views: 560

Re: 401k Fund Allocation Help

You mention target date fund at 90/10. Given your age I assume you're looking at 2050 or 2055 funds. Your closest mirroring of Vanguard 2050, if you choose to do it, would probably be: 54% SWPPX 36% VWILX 10% IICIX (could be split or even substituted with stable value fund if it's a good one) You do...
by Crisium
Fri Aug 31, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 107060

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

50/50 US/ex-US is overweighting ex-US. US is at least 53% of VT right now.

Also curious if there is drift overtime when splitting VTI+VXUS to match VT.
by Crisium
Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 107060

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

No doubt I would go 100% US over 100% ex-US if I only had those two choices. That's why I tilt towards the US as I feel more confident in it. But my confidence has doubts that International won't provide a diversification benefit, outperform, or even trounce US markets going forward. Like Bogle said...
by Crisium
Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 107060

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I can see Vanguard heading for a world of pain from angry investors some day if Intl. doesn't "revert to the mean" in a few years. Did Vanguard ever explain why they went from 30% International to 40% in their target retirement funds? I believe this change was even after their white paper that indi...
by Crisium
Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP G fund as only bond fund
Replies: 74
Views: 8573

Re: TSP G fund as only bond fund

T's conclusion, "If you go all G for your bonds, then one can infer that you think you know better than the people who designed the L Funds," seemed like quite a stretch to me. Is that a fair inference? I don't think so. So, my original post was essentially poking fun at the idea that my decision 8...
by Crisium
Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 82
Views: 9513

Re: Call the Top!

k66 wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:42 pm
Crisium wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:18 pm
My analysis indicates 3333.33
It seems that in this case, the 3's have come in pairs; USGrant previously called 3333.33 last year.

Did you have another pick?
If I've learned anything from The Price is Right I'll go with 3333.34
by Crisium
Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 411
Views: 46935

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Now we need a thread for ~0.0% change days.

U.S. stocks maintain the status quo!
by Crisium
Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 82
Views: 9513

Re: Call the Top!

My analysis indicates 3333.33
by Crisium
Mon Aug 27, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8615
Views: 1680281

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Worst luck for me. I just transferred some assets from another Rorth IRA and today is the day where they are in cash (buying mutual funds tonight). 26% of my total retirement portfolio sitting out today.

This also guarntees tomorrow will be a down day, just to rub it in for me. :annoyed
by Crisium
Fri Aug 17, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 401(k): Roth vs Non-Roth
Replies: 28
Views: 1843

Re: 401(k): Roth vs Non-Roth

I believe it is more likely that tax rates will increase by the time I retire then the chances rates will be the same or decrease. And to the point where even the benefit of withdrawing in lower brackets (including 0% standard deductions) will not make up for the raise. It would violate political ru...
by Crisium
Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Savings rate per month???
Replies: 68
Views: 6263

Re: Savings rate per month???

1/3 for now. But I am single and have a housemate. It will be drastically lower if those things change. My income is lower than the national average so full housing and family costs would mean little savings.
by Crisium
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough
Replies: 112
Views: 14531

Re: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough

That MMM article linked 2 posts above uses net.

I find it far simpler to use gross. Afterall, I set my 401k to 17% and it definitely is 17% of gross.
by Crisium
Fri Jul 13, 2018 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough
Replies: 112
Views: 14531

Re: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough

The average US household makes approximate 59k. 15% is the rule of thumb. 40 years of saving 15% (age 25-65) is close to 1.8m (assuming 7% CAGR). That's $72k a year at 4% SWR. This is very simplistic and not covering inflation and other things of course admittantly, but it is enough to illustrate th...
by Crisium
Fri Jul 13, 2018 8:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash out 401K
Replies: 15
Views: 2057

Re: Cash out 401K

$3k per month on $305k is an 11.8% withdrawal rate. I wouldn't even consider that safe for the 14.5 year retirement you are projecting (if I interpreted what you said right). What is your projected Soc Sec, and what will you make in your part time job? This would be critical for making it last for 1...
by Crisium
Fri Jun 29, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey against index funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 6268

Re: Dave Ramsey against index funds?

Mostly exaggerations, false statements, or misunderstanding when ranting about Dave. But that's fine. He just trucks along as the most popular and successful financial personality helping millions of people get their financial life in order. What false statements have been put forward in this threa...
by Crisium
Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is the first 100k really the hardest?
Replies: 156
Views: 45183

Re: Is the first 100k really the hardest?

I'm hoping to hit 100k networth later this year as I'm around 90k, but I keep a prodigious emergency fund in cash so my invested assets is only in the 60k range. I take so much comfort in knowing that if I lost my job and could not receive unemplyoment, I could last over a year on my cash. I know it...
by Crisium
Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8615
Views: 1680281

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

This is the fun part of the roller coaster.
by Crisium
Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very confused with the current market
Replies: 112
Views: 13200

Re: Very confused with the current market

What's your time horizon that makes you so prone to market timing rather than buy-and-hold? Buying an SP500 fund today at 2000 or 2008 peak prices would be a wonderful discount that we'd all love to do. 2018 prices are way higher. But there will be a future date when you will wish you could buy at p...