Search found 143 matches

by Crisium
Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 284
Views: 27437

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Dow and S&P 500 soaring to new highs. Enjoying the ride. Wonder when will this end and don’t want to think about that😁 Not a good thing if you're in accumulation phase. But if you're close to your target to retire, then I'd raise my glass to you :beer I can relate to your comment more than i'd like...
by Crisium
Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds
Replies: 48
Views: 2454

Re: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds

TSP rebalances daily. So if there's a 50% stock decline when you're 58, yes the L fund will be selling bonds/G Fund and buying stocks during the decent. But what I'm talking about is if there's a long bear and the stocks stay far, far below historic lows for a few years. During this time, the L fund...
by Crisium
Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds
Replies: 48
Views: 2454

Re: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds

Am I understanding this correctly? "When the average participant is age 58, the fund will be 60 percent stocks, and it will bottom out at 30 percent equities at age 63." Age 58 = 60/40 Stocks/Bonds Age 63 = 30/70 Stocks/Bonds So if a deep bear market hits at age 58, you will be selling half your sto...
by Crisium
Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New era for TSP "I" Fund?
Replies: 16
Views: 2082

Re: New era for TSP "I" Fund?

Oh that's good to hear.

I thought it was this, which is what my 401k international benchmarks:
https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/86 ... 29ed5adbbf

I still have a pittance in my TSP so I'm looking forward to the change from EAFE.
by Crisium
Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New era for TSP "I" Fund?
Replies: 16
Views: 2082

Re: New era for TSP "I" Fund?

Keep in mind this index does not cover any small-caps.
by Crisium
Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I think my father has a gambling problem
Replies: 78
Views: 6696

Re: I think my father has a gambling problem

The troubling part to me is that, after a year away, you came to visit for 4 days and your father left for half of that to be at a casino. I kind of feel like whether or not he was gambling responsibly is beside the point, he chose visiting the casino (a place he could visit any day) over a rare op...
by Crisium
Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k Fund Allocation Help
Replies: 6
Views: 518

Re: 401k Fund Allocation Help

You mention target date fund at 90/10. Given your age I assume you're looking at 2050 or 2055 funds. Your closest mirroring of Vanguard 2050, if you choose to do it, would probably be: 54% SWPPX 36% VWILX 10% IICIX (could be split or even substituted with stable value fund if it's a good one) You do...
by Crisium
Fri Aug 31, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1052
Views: 82708

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

50/50 US/ex-US is overweighting ex-US. US is at least 53% of VT right now.

Also curious if there is drift overtime when splitting VTI+VXUS to match VT.
by Crisium
Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1052
Views: 82708

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

No doubt I would go 100% US over 100% ex-US if I only had those two choices. That's why I tilt towards the US as I feel more confident in it. But my confidence has doubts that International won't provide a diversification benefit, outperform, or even trounce US markets going forward. Like Bogle said...
by Crisium
Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1052
Views: 82708

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I can see Vanguard heading for a world of pain from angry investors some day if Intl. doesn't "revert to the mean" in a few years. Did Vanguard ever explain why they went from 30% International to 40% in their target retirement funds? I believe this change was even after their white paper that indi...
by Crisium
Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP G fund as only bond fund
Replies: 74
Views: 8450

Re: TSP G fund as only bond fund

T's conclusion, "If you go all G for your bonds, then one can infer that you think you know better than the people who designed the L Funds," seemed like quite a stretch to me. Is that a fair inference? I don't think so. So, my original post was essentially poking fun at the idea that my decision 8...
by Crisium
Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 82
Views: 9325

Re: Call the Top!

k66 wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:42 pm
Crisium wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:18 pm
My analysis indicates 3333.33
It seems that in this case, the 3's have come in pairs; USGrant previously called 3333.33 last year.

Did you have another pick?
If I've learned anything from The Price is Right I'll go with 3333.34
by Crisium
Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 284
Views: 27437

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Now we need a thread for ~0.0% change days.

U.S. stocks maintain the status quo!
by Crisium
Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 82
Views: 9325

Re: Call the Top!

My analysis indicates 3333.33
by Crisium
Mon Aug 27, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6846
Views: 1496835

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Worst luck for me. I just transferred some assets from another Rorth IRA and today is the day where they are in cash (buying mutual funds tonight). 26% of my total retirement portfolio sitting out today.

This also guarntees tomorrow will be a down day, just to rub it in for me. :annoyed
by Crisium
Fri Aug 17, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 401(k): Roth vs Non-Roth
Replies: 28
Views: 1814

Re: 401(k): Roth vs Non-Roth

I believe it is more likely that tax rates will increase by the time I retire then the chances rates will be the same or decrease. And to the point where even the benefit of withdrawing in lower brackets (including 0% standard deductions) will not make up for the raise. It would violate political ru...
by Crisium
Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Savings rate per month???
Replies: 68
Views: 6162

Re: Savings rate per month???

1/3 for now. But I am single and have a housemate. It will be drastically lower if those things change. My income is lower than the national average so full housing and family costs would mean little savings.
by Crisium
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough
Replies: 112
Views: 14151

Re: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough

That MMM article linked 2 posts above uses net.

I find it far simpler to use gross. Afterall, I set my 401k to 17% and it definitely is 17% of gross.
by Crisium
Fri Jul 13, 2018 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough
Replies: 112
Views: 14151

Re: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough

The average US household makes approximate 59k. 15% is the rule of thumb. 40 years of saving 15% (age 25-65) is close to 1.8m (assuming 7% CAGR). That's $72k a year at 4% SWR. This is very simplistic and not covering inflation and other things of course admittantly, but it is enough to illustrate th...
by Crisium
Fri Jul 13, 2018 8:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash out 401K
Replies: 15
Views: 1993

Re: Cash out 401K

$3k per month on $305k is an 11.8% withdrawal rate. I wouldn't even consider that safe for the 14.5 year retirement you are projecting (if I interpreted what you said right). What is your projected Soc Sec, and what will you make in your part time job? This would be critical for making it last for 1...
by Crisium
Fri Jun 29, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey against index funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 6023

Re: Dave Ramsey against index funds?

Mostly exaggerations, false statements, or misunderstanding when ranting about Dave. But that's fine. He just trucks along as the most popular and successful financial personality helping millions of people get their financial life in order. What false statements have been put forward in this threa...
by Crisium
Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is the first 100k really the hardest?
Replies: 156
Views: 44171

Re: Is the first 100k really the hardest?

I'm hoping to hit 100k networth later this year as I'm around 90k, but I keep a prodigious emergency fund in cash so my invested assets is only in the 60k range. I take so much comfort in knowing that if I lost my job and could not receive unemplyoment, I could last over a year on my cash. I know it...
by Crisium
Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6846
Views: 1496835

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

This is the fun part of the roller coaster.
by Crisium
Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very confused with the current market
Replies: 112
Views: 12944

Re: Very confused with the current market

What's your time horizon that makes you so prone to market timing rather than buy-and-hold? Buying an SP500 fund today at 2000 or 2008 peak prices would be a wonderful discount that we'd all love to do. 2018 prices are way higher. But there will be a future date when you will wish you could buy at p...
by Crisium
Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which boglehead rule do you break--and are ok with
Replies: 152
Views: 12697

Re: Which boglehead rule do you break--and are ok with

I prefer actively managed bond funds.

I could also do better with keeping things simple, though there are much more complex people out there. 6 fund portfolio.
by Crisium
Thu Jun 07, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's own 401k plan eliminating S&P 500 Index option!
Replies: 86
Views: 8113

Re: Vanguard's own 401k plan eliminating S&P 500 Index option!

The only thing that would really irritate me is that instead of transferring the S&P 500 index funds into TSM, they instead moved them into target date funds. That changes asset allocation and raises fees, neither of which I would be very happy about. :oops: I was sceptical about that statement in ...
by Crisium
Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's own 401k plan eliminating S&P 500 Index option!
Replies: 86
Views: 8113

Re: Vanguard's own 401k plan eliminating S&P 500 Index option!

The only thing that would really irritate me is that instead of transferring the S&P 500 index funds into TSM, they instead moved them into target date funds. That changes asset allocation and raises fees, neither of which I would be very happy about. :oops: This stands out to me too. SP500 vs TSM ...
by Crisium
Wed May 30, 2018 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable Value Funds in Retiremen?
Replies: 7
Views: 966

Re: Stable Value Funds in Retiremen?

FYI my company-paid 'money coach' said the 401k's stable value fund is a reason to keep my 401K as opposed to rolling it over into an IRA. I agree with comment above. The existence of a "bond-like" investment vehicle that does not decline in value when interest rates rise could a good reason to kee...
by Crisium
Thu May 24, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]
Replies: 155
Views: 14252

Re: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]

There isn't a single efficient frontier for the entire world. Investors seek to optimize real, after-tax returns in their home currency. Since each country has its own inflation rate, its own tax laws, and its own currency, each country also has its own efficient frontier. Perhaps instead of adopti...
by Crisium
Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Ally online savings now at 1.80%]
Replies: 220
Views: 35809

Re: Ally online savings now at 1.45%

Ally have done 0.10 rate increases in the past. They are really only going to do a 0.05 increase, leaving them still behind competitors?

I like their interface so much though. But I may have to run to Purepoint.
by Crisium
Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Broke up with my girlfriend for financial reasons: crazy?
Replies: 53
Views: 3989

Re: Broke up with my girlfriend for financial reasons: crazy?

Interesting read.

What do you think about introducing her to Mr. Money Mustache and Dave Ramsey? Now that you're broken up it might look even more condescending, but worth keeping in mind. Her situation is not untypical for a US millennial.
by Crisium
Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets tilt
Replies: 37
Views: 4038

Re: Emerging markets tilt

I have a moderate tilt within my international allocation. But since I tilt to the US, my overall EM is just slightly more than market weight. I'm 2:1 US:Int, and 40% of that Int is EM, so my equities are 13.3% EM. I guess really I am tilting away from Int Developed because I do not have confidence ...
by Crisium
Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I Crazy??? [Excess W-4 withholding, got large tax refund]
Replies: 31
Views: 3858

Re: Am I Crazy??? [Excess W-4 withholding, got large tax refund]

This is understandable. Ideally you'd have that money in at least a 1% savings account though, as you are aware. And this is why setting up automatic savings is important for most people. People are adaptable. In my experience, most people save less than 10% of their income no matter what - whether ...
by Crisium
Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What’s the magic savings rate???
Replies: 94
Views: 14112

Re: What’s the magic savings rate???

whomever wrote:
Fri Mar 30, 2018 1:39 pm
I worked with a group once that had a habit of morning and afternoon trips to Starbucks, at maybe $4 each trip, and a $10 lunch out. $18 a day times 20 working days a month is $360 a month.
The group next to me does this as well. I suspect it is not unusual.
by Crisium
Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What can we learn from secret millionaires.
Replies: 93
Views: 17835

Re: What can we learn from secret millionaires.

Standard of living varies. I could retire right now with a million dollars with a conservative 3% SWR and still have extra money in a typical year. And I would not be eating cat food in a studio apartment.
by Crisium
Fri Mar 30, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What’s the magic savings rate???
Replies: 94
Views: 14112

Re: What’s the magic savings rate???

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/ ... etirement/

Makes some assumptions, but inspiring if you need saving motivation.

Note it's based on net and not gross income.
by Crisium
Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maybe Ramsey is right
Replies: 43
Views: 9990

Re: Maybe Ramsey is right

Heard this one a few weeks ago. Caller is Fed employee who uses TSP, heard a "save 15% of income" rule of thumb he wants to follow. Asks: what do I do? Dave: Roth TSP and Roth IRA (I agree 100% for rule of thumb, since 15% Roth > 15% Traditional) TSP to Match IRA until full Rest in TSP Almost seems ...
by Crisium
Fri Mar 16, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Geico insurance rate increase: 26.24% APY?
Replies: 75
Views: 13579

Re: Geico insurance rate increase: 26.24% APY?

My Geico 6 month rate is about 4% higher than 6 months ago. Not worried yet.
by Crisium
Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6846
Views: 1496835

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Gary Cohn effect today. Beginning of the end of the bull?
by Crisium
Wed Feb 28, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey over simplifying Roth vs. Traditional IRA?
Replies: 103
Views: 12467

Re: Dave Ramsey over simplifying Roth vs. Traditional IRA?

I also remember a study where Roth is recommended for those who follow simple rules of thumb, such as save 15% if your income. 15% Roth > 15% Trad (rarely they can tie of course). Most people do not do the math and realize with traditional they can invest more thanks to a lower tax bill. The money s...
by Crisium
Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: In mid 20s and just opened a Roth IRA with 401k. What should I do
Replies: 22
Views: 1986

Re: In mid 20s and just opened a Roth IRA with 401k. What should I do

As far as the US Market goes, you'll want an 80/20 split on FXAIX/FSMAX to best replicate it. The boglehead approach is to follow the (US) Market at weight, though many of us deviate slightly. Your biggest choices are how much international, VTSNX, to include, and how much in bonds (FXSTX). Internat...
by Crisium
Mon Feb 26, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: In mid 20s and just opened a Roth IRA with 401k. What should I do
Replies: 22
Views: 1986

Re: In mid 20s and just opened a Roth IRA with 401k. What should I do

The expense ratio of 0.45% on the target date fund in your 401k is relatively high. Low expense ratios are critical to long-term investing success. Please list the funds offered in your 401k, giving fund names, tickers and expense ratios, we can help by suggesting better funds to use. Please use th...
by Crisium
Thu Feb 22, 2018 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young Investor: Investing In A Bear Market
Replies: 29
Views: 3010

Re: Young Investor: Investing In A Bear Market

Look, I know the "early and often" advice is the thing to do, but I have to believe its the mainstream advice that makes assumptions about which funds you're buying. It makes sense to just dump money into a total market fund because its a slow moving boat. But look at an emerging market fund like F...
by Crisium
Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Transition AA 100% equities to 70/30
Replies: 4
Views: 663

Re: Transition AA 100% equities to 70/30

What are you looking for by “better”? It’s uncertain which would result in a higher principle by year end, but statistically the DCA approach would win most years since you’d have a higher stock allocation for most of the year. Stocks go up about 2/3 of the time in a 12 month span, so over 10 months...
by Crisium
Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: USAA 41% More For Car Insurance
Replies: 43
Views: 3296

Re: USAA 41% More For Car Insurance

The total amount of our annual spending that goes to home, auto, and umbrella coverage is so tiny that wasting time on a better or worse quote would be silly. I can understand that these items might loom larger in some household budgets. Indeed. 3% of my gross income was on car insurance alone with...
by Crisium
Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: USAA 41% More For Car Insurance
Replies: 43
Views: 3296

Re: USAA 41% More For Car Insurance

I went from USAA to Geico 6 months ago. I was able to get the same coverage at Geico for 38% of the USAA cost. In the end I gave myself even more coverage and it was still less than half the price. USAA as far as I can tell is not a rate leader, nor anywhere close to one.
by Crisium
Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why paying off loans would be better than fully funding 401k?
Replies: 97
Views: 8181

Re: Why paying off loans would be better than fully funding 401k?

$247 for 3 phones service is too much. Look into one of the non big four companies for family deals. For ex, Cricket with 4 lines for $100 (not unlimited data though). Even a big four, T-Mobile, is running a special right now for 4 lines for $140 unlimited. Even if that $247 includes a payment for p...
by Crisium
Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why paying off loans would be better than fully funding 401k?
Replies: 97
Views: 8181

Re: Why paying off loans would be better than fully funding 401k?

You said you take 1-2 vacations per year, $3k minimum each. Let's be less conservative and say you are spending $8k vacations per year. You estimate you make between $336k and $408k per year. That's 2% of your gross income per year at worst. Your vacations are not your problem. Yes, you should cut t...
by Crisium
Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6846
Views: 1496835

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I feel more comfortable now than it was going up like mad in January. Accumulation phase. +1. Although it makes me sad watching my portfolio shrinks for the first time ever since I started investing couple years ago. I am less worried about what happens now compared to January's madness. I really o...
by Crisium
Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6846
Views: 1496835

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I feel more comfortable now than it was going up like mad in January. Accumulation phase.