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Right. I get that in the current crisis mode. But longterm anyone with access to U.S. banking: is there any meaningful difference between a bank account & T bills if no de facto FDIC limits?

Any thoughts?

A financial markets theory question — not a political one, please!

In theory, if de facto FDIC limits become unlimited, will this affect the short term Treasury market?

Mike Scott wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:12 pm Depends on how competitive they are on a specific product at the moment.

Meaning something like, if the terms are worth it put up with the service?

But, not as good a deal as 15 years ago?

I first joined Penfed in 2009 for a mortgage based on advice in this forum.

What do people think now?

Thanks,

wbond

Thanks again.

Thanks.

Yes, “should” is just the catchy title!

Now that Intl Real Estate, e.g. VNQI, has been cheap for some time in terms of expense ratio, I’m considering taking some space from U.S. REIT and adding a bit of this.

Obviously, there is to age-old question of the benefit of adding complexity for minimal additional potential future diversification. I don’t personally mind the complexity.

I realize, as well, it’s not a mirror of U.S. REITs in terms of structure.

That all said, what are other thoughts, objections, etc?

Groundhog Day - for the holiday, and for its 25th Anniversary. Humbly, a piece on the greatest film of my lifetime: "Groundhog Day and the Pursuit of Happiness"

I posted a question in the comment section I'll reproduce here: "Question regarding relation of real interest rates to economic growth. My understanding is that real interest rates in pre-industrial world of essentially zero growth (say antiquity & medieval Europe) were higher - all loans including to sovereign states were riskier, etc., and that they've fallen over the last 2.5 centuries. So, with safer assets, more reliable institutions such as U.S. treasury, and greater worldwide wealth we expect a long-term trend of falling real rates, everything else being equal. On the other hand, is the above positive association between real rates and growth. These two forces move in opposite directions, no? Any way to disentangle?" He...

ICYMI, Cochrane's post on his blog this week is worth reading, for those interested in theory, etc.

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2018 ... tions.html

P.S. I don't see a discussion in a search. My apologies if I missed it and it's already posted here somewhere.

Cheers, Wbond

Yes, although those 19th c. returns were real (more or less)!

Cheers, wbond

John Bull can stand many things but he cannot stand 2%.

Cheers, wbond

Jomoney and Larry: Interesting. Thanks.

avalpert wrote:. Not just not actionable but uninteresting as well.

On what ultimately do you base these models, Glaucon?

Larry,

Put another way, do you expect an increase in earnings based on business cycle expectations or is it an accounting issue, or other?

Thanks,

wbond

Larry,

To be clear, I find it of interest, not actionable. And, yes, inclusive of the recession/crash/recovery (such as it has been).

Why 2018?

A) Since the components of equity returns can be broken down into 1) dividends plus 2) earnings growth/share plus 3) price change, and B) Since while price change tends to dominate short-intermediate term returns, the longer one's horizon the more important are the "fundamental" contributions from dividends and earnings/share growth: C) Therefore historical real earnings/share growth is of interest to investors - in that knowledge of the past is all we have for making assumptions about the future. I note for interest that over the past full decade the yearly real earnings growth/share has been negative: roughly -0.27%/yr. Obviously the starting/stopping points are important with such calculations, but the eyeball assessment of the...

Thanks!

Has anyone here ever driven across Lemhi Pass?

Google maps is telling me 1 hr 40 minutes from Grant, MT to Salmon, ID. Sound about right? Thanks, kindly.

P.S. Should probably note I'm @MrWBond, FWIW.

White Coat Investor wrote: Here's the ones I'm following right now. Most are/would be considered Bogleheads.

Thanks, kindly.

I'm already following you and most on your list. Added the remaining two or three.

I appreciate the response!

Any suggestions for BH-types active on Twitter?

Thanks,

wbond

I'm interested in BH's favorite "stations" including especially strategies for accessing genres. Strategies such as listing one obscure artist that forces the algorithms to diversify, etc. whereas, listing the "obvious" artist for that genre seems to lead to more predictable, boring song selection. I'll list a few, with the caveat that my tastes are dynamic (vary with my whim), and of course that de gustibus non est disputandum ! Kay Kyser Radio - mid-century big band Standards/Vocal Jazz Radio - mainly American song book, but more diverse Jack Johnson Radio - "alt/indie/acoustic more recent pop" Traditional Country Hymns Radio & The Bluegrass Gospel Radio - these two deliver string band hillbilly gospel-ty...

Well, back to CCFs? viewtopic.php?t=174733

And I was worried that you would have to wait for it to do poorly to no longer be able to buy it.

So 2007?

Are we all buying QSPIX now?

Or do any Bogleheads still own these?

Did Rick win that debate in the end by TKO (in this case lack of interest)?

Or is this a buy signal - I mean a time to rebalance?

SF Fed paper: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2015/september/market-based-inflation-forecasting-and-alternative-methods/ Thanks. That's interesting and timely. I had once known about inflation swaps. Thanks for reminding me. Those and the TIPS-Treasury breakeven rates seem to be the favored "market" forecasts. The authors of the paper, however, compare prior market-based expectations from the breakeven rate and the inflation swaps to the actual observed inflation that occurs. That, of course, does not mean that those market-based forecasts were less accurate than e.g. the fed goal, or the expert surveys as a marker of expectations. It does show that over the time periods measured they were less...

Question: How "pure" are market expectations implied in treasury futures markets? Any other forces at work?

Thanks. Very interesting.

Yes, Taylor, I agree.

Perhaps theory is interesting, for its own sake, however?

The only possible practical implication is that TIPS should be considered as adding diversification to other asset classes, including nominal treasurys, even in a rebalanced, "concave" portfolio. That is, not just in portfolios designed to match liabilities at some future date.

Cheers,

wbond

An interesting development this year as the 10-yr Treasury vs. 10-yr TIPS spread has narrowed. Nominal 2.17% TIPS .71% Spread 1.46% http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldYear&year=2015 http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldYear&year=2015 Some use this spread as a market indicator of expected inflation. As we all know, in addition to this factor there is thought to be an “inflation-risk premium” that investors are willing to pay for the inflation protection of TIPS. There is also thought to be a “liquidity premium” that investors are willing to pay for the liquidity that nominal treasurys possess vs. o...

Simplegift wrote:And the comparison of stock dividend yields versus 10-year government bond yields is currently even more striking internationally (chart below). By historical standards, these are either remarkably generous payouts for stocks or notably meager yields on bonds. My sense is that it's the latter.

• 
  Source: Henderson Global

Great chart.

Happy Days are Here Again, or:

What happens when stocks go down (and become cheaper).

http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center ... data=yield

Cheers, wbond

livesoft wrote:

wbond wrote:You call that a correction? It's over?

Well, stock market closed higher this week than last week, so everyone's portfolio made money this week. Yep, it is over. That doesn't mean the next one does not start this coming Monday or is it next Monday?

PM when you remember which Monday!

Oh, and remember: volatility presages larger falls - except for when it doesn't.

You call that a correction? It's over?

Plaque in Southampton on Canute Hotel commemorating Canute's demonstration to sycophants that no man controls the tides.

Bill Bernstein wrote:
You might as well try to hold back the tide.

Bill

King Canute for Fed Chair!

UADM wrote: I think that too many people "learned" that a 6 year stock market rally after a crash is inevitable. We did have one, but it was only one of the possible outcomes and will not predict future results.

Sure, but in the long run DY + growth dividends trumps valuation. Always better to buy equities when DY 3-4% than 1-2. To do so, however, is the hard part due to what perforce precedes it.

Cheers, wbond

I "over-rebalanced" in 12/08, when I was scheduled to rebalance.

Agree it's a good test. Imagine the scenario. If you wouldn't follow your plan when the sky is falling then you're taking too much risk currently.

Here's a thread I started in April of 2009. We now know this was right at/after the bottom. Not many people were interested in discussing what a good deal equities were relative to bonds at the time. http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=36827

Other points:

Don't confuse nominal GDP growth with real.

Don't confuse real GDP growth with real GDP growth/capita.

Last, don't confuse forecasted real GDP growth with expected equity returns.

Cheers.

The general question, with all strategies that a) are validated only by very long runs of backtested data, and b) show periods of of outperformance and underperformance that have, in the past, lasted for over a decade, is: do I personally have the depth of conviction (and life expectancy) needed to stay the course for long enough for the long-term statistics to prevail-- assuming that they do prevail , and that I am not simply the victim of sampling error or an actual change in the markets (driven by changes in laws, or government decisions, perhaps). The temptation to think that you can "try and see" is an invitation to jumping onto fads at the bad times and then bailing at bad times. On the basis of their supporting past data, ...

In the immortal words of Kermit, it's not that easy.

. The results of backtested portfolios depend on the returns/SD and correlations used for the style premia series. Using 10% annualized return/10 standard deviation as per the AQR paper, with zero correlation with stocks and bond yielded (small) mean-variance efficiency improvements for an already global small cap and value tilted portfolio over 1990-2013. Using the 7% annualized return expectation (net of fees) [instead of 10%] from Larry's earlier article did not improve mean-variance efficiency for an already tilted portfolio [at least in my simulations]. I also get similar results to those in the paper on Understaning Style Premia where both returns are higher and the SD is lower relative to a 60/40 total stock/bond portfolio if a 30% ...

gkaplan wrote:

wbond wrote:The Searchers

The music group or the movie?

Yes.

Thanks.

The next page option wasn't showing up on my phone and I missed it.

Larry,

You list "four premia that many investors desire:" value, size, momentum, and defensive.

I thought the second was "carry " rather than size. Am I incorrect? Or has something changed about their carry strategy?

Thanks,

wbond

Nicolas wrote:The Man Who Would Be King, with Michael & Shakira Caine and Sean Connery, directed by John Huston, 1975.

Peachy, in your opinion, have our lives been misspent?

Crimsontide wrote:

BahamaMan wrote:

peppers wrote: No Country For Old Men

Whoa! - No Country for Old Men, is one of my All Time Favorite Movies.

Just Genius on the part of the Coen Brothers.

+1 No Country for Old Men is fantastic. Love most everything from the Coen Bros though...

I much prefer their comedies. They try too hard in their serious films.

If you want a better movie set in desolate West Texas, watch The Searchers if you haven't before, and you won't go back to No Country.

That said, I don't dislike No Country. The only good thing about the English Patient is Herodotus, and I can read him for free.