Search found 324 matches

by ignition
Sun Jul 19, 2020 2:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 457
Views: 26673

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

That said, I think that it's insane for anyone to to decide on day 1 of retirement how much they will withdraw every year, adjusted for inflation, for the next 30 years from their portfolio of stocks, bonds, etc. There is just too much uncertainty, probably on the upside, to do anything like that. ...
by ignition
Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Top 10 Things Bogleheads Get Wrong - White Coat Investor
Replies: 143
Views: 13865

Re: Top 10 Things Bogleheads Get Wrong - White Coat Investor

Dave Ramsay and MMM are fine for what they are. I think what upsets a lot of people is that are disingenuous or dishonest in their presentation. MMM portrays himself as a guy who retired very young and makes it all work by R.I. g super frugal. Then it comes out that he makes $400K/yr from his websi...
by ignition
Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Top 10 Things Bogleheads Get Wrong - White Coat Investor
Replies: 143
Views: 13865

Re: Top 10 Things Bogleheads Get Wrong - White Coat Investor

Although I have learned some things here, and enjoy reading about many different financial situations, there is a whiff of conformity that is passed off as the best, most rational, time-tested solution. Any one questioning The One True Path can often find themselves ostracized as a heretic. Often o...
by ignition
Wed Jun 17, 2020 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 381
Views: 55965

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

I disagree because Portfolio Charts already studies every start date simultaneously rather than just the period starting in 1970. :wink: And for a full explanation, I address your concern about the gold data here: How to study portfolios when the data is full of bubbles . It seems a bit strange to ...
by ignition
Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has U.S oupterformed or has International underperformed?
Replies: 32
Views: 2208

Re: Has U.S oupterformed or has International underperformed?

My intention for this thread wasn't another U.S vs International, its more about how do you estimate future returns, the 4% rule seems to be based on the U.S market which as someone mentioned above is cherry picking one of the best performers over the past 100 or so years, so I don't think returns ...
by ignition
Sat Jun 06, 2020 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 381
Views: 55965

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

What is the advantage of the short term treasury/long term treasury combo? I was backtesting a bit and results are very similar if you just use intermediate treasuries: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=1972&firstMonth=1&endYear=202...
by ignition
Sun May 17, 2020 5:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15941

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

bog007 wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 4:33 am
whats sorr?
sequence of returns risk
by ignition
Sat May 16, 2020 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 18691

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Not sure what lifelong has to do with it. I thought we were talking about holding an asset for a 30 year period. My point is that it is entirely rational for investors to hold some portion of their portfolio in risk-free assets. If I'm not supposed to own any bonds at age 50 to help fund consumptio...
by ignition
Sat May 16, 2020 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 18691

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

I just don't see the point in holding bonds for consumption in 2050. I'd rather hold equities then. My goal is to try to maximize my lifetime consumption, and a lifelong 100% equity allocation isn't going to do that for me. If it does for you that's great, but surely you can see that not everyone i...
by ignition
Sat May 16, 2020 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 18691

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Yes, but you would be almost certain to not make any money after inflation. So why would you that? Because I'm just as certain to not LOSE any money after inflation. Buying short-term bonds and rolling them over doesn't provide that kind of certainty. The only reason I save and invest now is to pro...
by ignition
Sat May 16, 2020 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 18691

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

I'm not sure you're missing anything, but I'm also not sure what the question is. Right now I can buy a zero-coupon Treasury bond maturing on 2/15/2050 with a nominal yield-to-maturity of 1.33%. For any money I'm planning to spend in 2050, that's as close to a risk-free investment as I can get. Eit...
by ignition
Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.
Replies: 151
Views: 15089

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

We need more stimulus!...So big companies can use that money to buyback shares, instead of actually circulating it into the economy. Then we can all watch our retirement accounts grow and pat ourselves on the back for staying the course and adhering to boglehead principles. Why wouldn't that money ...
by ignition
Sun Apr 19, 2020 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR Data: 6.5 Million Possibilities Considered
Replies: 152
Views: 7246

Re: SWR Data: 6.5 Million Possibilities Considered

3% seems very safe. That's what I plan to use myself in combination with a high stock allocation if I would retire early. I agree that 3% seems well safe, but budgeting for something between 3.5 and 4% is not unreasonable when looking at past data. Since we spend about 60K per year, we are hoping t...
by ignition
Sun Apr 19, 2020 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR Data: 6.5 Million Possibilities Considered
Replies: 152
Views: 7246

Re: SWR Data: 6.5 Million Possibilities Considered

3% seems very safe. That's what I plan to use myself in combination with a high stock allocation if I would retire early.
by ignition
Wed Apr 15, 2020 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Marketing timing" comments from a quant
Replies: 106
Views: 4602

Re: "Marketing timing" comments from a quant

On the returns question, I do have my yearly returns and comparison to benchmarks going back to 1999. My portfolio has increased about 10x since 1999 but that does include new contributions, although those are mostly modest. How is that possible? :o The S&P500 only returned 230% since January 1999 ...
by ignition
Mon Apr 13, 2020 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does compounding really work with stocks?
Replies: 64
Views: 4755

Re: Does compounding really work with stocks?

I would say "no", because the closest thing to interest payments that compound are dividend payments. Each time dividends are paid out, they reduce the underlying value of the holdings. That's not the same with a savings account. If you receive interest, your savings balance doesn't diminish each t...
by ignition
Mon Apr 13, 2020 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does compounding really work with stocks?
Replies: 64
Views: 4755

Re: Does compounding really work with stocks?

No. Stocks don't earn interest, so they don't compound in the same sense as a savings bank account. Stocks simply change in price. It can go from $1 to $2 to $3 and, like recently, back down to $1. This is not compounding. Stocks (e.g. companies) earn money right? It's not just some piece of paper ...
by ignition
Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does compounding really work with stocks?
Replies: 64
Views: 4755

Re: Does compounding really work with stocks?

No. Stocks don't earn interest, so they don't compound in the same sense as a savings bank account. Stocks simply change in price. It can go from $1 to $2 to $3 and, like recently, back down to $1. This is not compounding. Stocks (e.g. companies) earn money right? It's not just some piece of paper ...
by ignition
Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:33 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Simple question - my one ETF portfolio - do I need to change it? [Ireland]
Replies: 13
Views: 1022

Re: Simple question - my one ETF portfolio - do I need to change it? [Ireland]

glorat wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:00 pm
To be clear... taxes on an S&P ETF will be higher than on a world ETF
Are you sure? Ex-US has a much higher dividend yield than US.
by ignition
Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much (or little) do u talk to/teach others about finances
Replies: 36
Views: 1747

Re: How much (or little) do u talk to/teach others about finances

I advise my parents and my brother who mostly listen. My parents have about half in index funds, half with a financial adviser. The index funds are crushing the funds of the adviser. Sometimes I talk about it at work when someone else brings it up. Of course I mostly get blank stares there as everyo...
by ignition
Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio's paradigm change
Replies: 46
Views: 2869

Re: Ray Dalio's paradigm change

QE was not that inflationary because it was an asset swap: bonds for reserves. The money supply in the economy didn't change. All it does is lower interest rates.
by ignition
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Young investors, how do you feel about your 1st market crash?
Replies: 132
Views: 9145

Re: Young investors, how do you feel about your 1st market crash?

I am happy to buy stocks on sale and plan to keep on buying every month as I did before. I started investing in 2015 and am about break even now (100% stocks). About the same age as you. I have about 60 years of investing in front of me if everything goes well so no this crash doesn't really bother ...
by ignition
Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Would Jack Bogle Do?
Replies: 45
Views: 3311

Re: What Would Jack Bogle Do?

While I wish I didn't look at the market, your 100% stock strategy may not be sound. I was in Japan in 1989 and markets still haven't recovered 31 years later. Ken Fisher agrees with you and has the monte carlo simulation model to prove it. Unfortunately, if was filled with assumptions I completely...
by ignition
Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]
Replies: 372
Views: 26029

Re: Disappointed in forum members

Staying the course sounds all well and good. Until you see your net worth evaporating and retirement going out the window. When that is the case it might be useful to remember Taylor Larimore's thread "Maximum Tolerable Loss" -- Not just a fear factor where he outlined when one should get out of th...
by ignition
Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 381
Views: 55965

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

Interesting portfolio. This has probably been asked before but: are there any backtests going back further than 1970?
by ignition
Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How To Calculate Returns On a Rental Property
Replies: 22
Views: 1226

Re: How To Calculate Returns On a Rental Property

I like this calculator: https://www.calculator.net/rental-property-calculator.html?cprice=200000&cuseloan=yes&cdownpayment=20&cinterest=4.5&cloanterm=30&cothercost=3000&cneedrepair=no&crepaircost=10000&cafterrepairvalue=150000&ctax=1500&ctaxincrease=3&cinsurance=800&cinsuranceincrease=3&choa=0&choai...
by ignition
Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 110121

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

But the longer you hold them, the higher the likelihood of a profit right? I just never understand what people mean exactly with "stocks don't become less risky if held for a long time". I tried reading Zvi Bodie's paper for example but didn't understand it at all. Perhaps there is a risk curve of ...
by ignition
Sun Feb 09, 2020 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 110121

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Must increase in value is maybe a bit strong. Of course the price you pay also matters. But still, all else equal (you buy for the same price at the same moment), I think the probability of a loss and the probability of the loss being bigger will be lower the longer you hold. I just want you to not...
by ignition
Sat Feb 08, 2020 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 110121

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

You're conflating two issues here. What you mention is a matter of scale. A global portfolio is less likely to have large loss magnitudes than a country's, which in turn is less likely that a sector's, which in turn is less likely than a city's companies, that in turn is less likely that one singul...
by ignition
Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 110121

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Stocks, if modeled as a random walk, do get riskier over longer time periods. The probability of a loss decreases, but the magnitude of the losses increases (because they compound). I don't believe stocks are a pure random walk. I believe they go up in the long run. These two things aren't inconsis...
by ignition
Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 110121

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

The longer you hold, the lower the probability that you'll have less money than your initial investment at the end of your holding period . While true, this measure of risk is rather useless because it's not incorporating the magnitude of the outcomes. If a given investment ABC had a 1% higher chan...
by ignition
Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why many inheritances don't last past 3 generations
Replies: 144
Views: 17987

Re: Why many inheritances don't last past 3 generations

I like the explanation on why many inheritances don't last past 3 generations - besides the usual that the kids / grandkids spend it all. https://humbledollar.com/2020/02/great-to-gone/ For a family fortune to last in perpetuity and generate an income stream that rises with the general standard of ...
by ignition
Sat Feb 08, 2020 5:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 110121

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Ok let me make a small change to make it clearer: The longer you hold, the lower the probability that you'll have less money than your initial investment at the end of your holding period . This is all fine. It could all come down to semantics perhaps. For instance, the risk of losing it all never ...
by ignition
Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 110121

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

How are you defining risk? I ask because I said that I expect volatility to drop the longer you hold a position. I would define risk as the probability of losing money compared to your initial investment. If I look at the data I would say the longer you hold, the lower the probability of losing mon...
by ignition
Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 110121

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

How are you defining risk? I ask because I said that I expect volatility to drop the longer you hold a position. I would define risk as the probability of losing money compared to your initial investment. If I look at the data I would say the longer you hold, the lower the probability of losing mon...
by ignition
Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 110121

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Assuming this is a serious question, there is plenty of literature available that you can search for that shows stocks are no less riskier if held for a long time. Boglehead wiki may even have some materials and/or links. Stock market can go into a 10% correction almost anytime in a given year, a 2...
by ignition
Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 110121

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

But why would it be riskier when held for a long time? I assume he means compared to holding for a short time. The longer you hold, the more likely you will have a profit no? Volatility goes down the longer you hold. It doesn’t mean you’ll profit . Look at how long it took NASDAQ to get back to its...
by ignition
Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 110121

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Why would stocks be riskier when held for a long time? Depends what price you pay. Let’s say you bought the S&P in 96 and held to 2008. You would have only collected dividends. It moved sideways over that time period. If you bought in 2000 and held to 2008, you would have lost money. There are long...
by ignition
Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 110121

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Stocks can lose 90% of their value and not recover for a decade. There is no promise you will get your value back, otherwise there would be no risk. It is a fallacy to think stocks are not somehow riskier if held on for a long time. Risk is not volatility, if it were you could simply ignore it. Why...
by ignition
Sun Jan 26, 2020 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett Does Recommend The 90/10 Portfolio
Replies: 109
Views: 17593

Re: Warren Buffett Does Recommend The 90/10 Portfolio

Indeed so. I think the real problem on this forum is how to swallow the 90% stock recommendation and then after that all the consternation about the irrelevant detail that he said S&P 500 and not TSM. I guess people are just going to have deal with it. 90/10 has historically been a very good alloca...
by ignition
Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: indexers buying negative interest bonds
Replies: 46
Views: 5486

Re: indexers buying negative interest bonds

I'd like to comment on those talking points. The out of thin air part seems as if it must be as opposed to out of ores from mines . If somebody wants to advocate a return to the gold standard let them, but let's not disguise it. No, I don't want to advocate a return to the gold standard. Just wante...
by ignition
Mon Jan 20, 2020 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: indexers buying negative interest bonds
Replies: 46
Views: 5486

Re: indexers buying negative interest bonds

“Put it in the bank: Well most of the funds won't be insured and I would guess most banks also charge to hold that much money.” So in europe are people just keeping their money in their mattress? How would banks even stay in business? Negative deposit account rates would certainly drive away deposi...
by ignition
Sat Dec 21, 2019 4:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Corporate Leaders Trust - a passive fund frozen in 1935
Replies: 22
Views: 2773

Re: WSJ: Corporate Leaders Trust - a passive fund frozen in 1935

How could it get berkshire hathaway if it was frozen since 1935?
by ignition
Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:02 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Europe] [Belgium] Bonds or just a savings account?
Replies: 7
Views: 589

Re: [Europe] [Belgium] Bonds or just a savings account?

I'm struggling with the same issue (bonds yielding nothing or sometimes even negative yields). For now I've solved it by not holding any bonds or cash at all :)
by ignition
Sun Dec 08, 2019 4:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1184
Views: 121164

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Personally I didn't transition to 2-funds trying to chase performance but primarily for simplicity reasons. I'm retired and want my wife to be able to handle our portfolio should I pre-decease her (which I probably will) and for as long as I can while I'm still alive (and my mental acuity declines)...
by ignition
Sat Dec 07, 2019 5:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US vs Intl Total Stock Market
Replies: 55
Views: 3966

Re: US vs Intl Total Stock Market

International helped during the 1970's stagflation and to a lesser extent after the dot com crash, improving the "safe withdrawal rate" if you were retired.
by ignition
Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:42 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Seeking advice] Non-US/Non-EU IPS
Replies: 22
Views: 1263

Re: [Seeking advice] Non-US/Non-EU IPS

Well, I'm not a big fan of this withdrawing method for 2 reasons very much outlined in these forums: 1. Quote from the wiki: "Keep it simple". I don't want to be choosing each year how much I will sell if I'm in the middle of a recession (because yes, that will happen over the course of the next 30...
by ignition
Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:35 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Republic of Georgia] 9M never invested
Replies: 12
Views: 2863

Re: [Republic of Georgia] 9M never invested

2. Even though I have a long investment horizon, I am not comfortable buying stocks at all time high prices. Are there any other strategies worth considering besides dollar cost averaging? Seems like you're not comfortable with your asset allocation. I would just invest in my desired asset allocati...