Bogleheads.org

Here is how I look at it. After buying house, portfolio is $1.8M. Starting at age 67, you have $39,000 income from SS. From now until 67, you have $14,000. If you set aside 9 X $25,000, that means you will have $39k taken care of for life. That leaves you with $1.575M. A conservative 3% withdrawal rate would yield $47,250. $47,250 + $39,000 = total income of $86,250. That almost exactly hits your goal of $86,000. I think you are good to retire, but there's not much room for error. You still probably want somewhere around 20-30% stocks to stay ahead of inflation. https://earlyretirementnow.com/2016/12/07/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-1-intro/ I think this is a good way to look at it. But, I would say it does leave some ro...

Good to know! But not sure I understand the last sentence though. Depending on your state, if you start earning more than $100,000, it can impact the subsidies/support that you get for discounted premiums on your ACA insurance. In my state, at an income level of under $60,000 for a family of four, healthcare is essentially free. Premiums are almost nothing, and any expenses you can submit a financial aid form and get 80 to 100% off. I know a couple FIRE families who are on it and they don’t pay anything ever and they have broken bones or had surgery. So the $500/month that my family has budgeted for our family given our income level is it way overkill/padded. There are so many programs to support lower income people if you just do some loo...

Where are you getting medical insurance for a family at $500? Full time working for large corps I can’t even get it all for $500 let alone any co-pays or out of pocket. But non-working I believe that number to be extremely low. I had one year of bad luck and hit full out of pocket maximums. Which eclipsed the $6000 you have budgeted by $7500. In my state, a family of 4 making 40k/year gets a 1300/month subsidy. A silver plan with an out of pocket limit of 6000 costs about 1200/month at my age. So basically you just have to pay the deductibles. There should even be some support for paying the deductible. Now that doesn't include things like adult dentists and things like eyewear. 6k seems like a pretty reasonable guess to me. Obviously this...

I've lately seen two Vanguard Personal Advisory Services portfolios that have a very large variation from Vanguard's position of the stock allocation of 60% US and 40% international. Neither of these two account owners requested to vary from this position nor did they have significant assets outside of Vanguard PAS that warranted such a large variation. I may write about this and am soliciting any feedback from Bogleheads members who might have a PAS account opened in the last couple of years and asking for your breakdown of US vs. Int'l stock recommended by a Vanguard PAS advisor. Please let me know if you do and whether or not you requested a certain allocation between US vs. Int'l. Thanks very much! Allan What were their allocations pri...

Since this a book about people with "more than enough", I assume many will have large taxable portfolios. So I'll ask the question I'm getting know for here to Mike/Oblivious Investor: How do TIPS work for high tax bracket investors with taxable accounts? Do you recommend them at all? Do you recommend high doses of TIPS, which, in high inflation, become subject to big "taxflation". And if not TIPS for those who "won the game" then what? With TIPS, the semiannual inflation adjustments to the principal are taxed as interest (as is the interest itself, of course). This doesn't necessarily make TIPS meaningfully more tax-inefficient than other Treasuries. And as Treasuries, they have one point going for them in th...

jimmy2017 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 18, 2023 10:59 pm I'm having a second child who will be three years younger than the first who currently has a 529. I'm debating whether to open a second 529 or heavily fund the first one to use and change the beneficiary after the first one goes to college for a few years. The rationale of just having one is lower risk if one of them doesn't go to college.

Any major pro/con considerations for having a 529 per kid vs one heavily funded one?

Thanks!

You may want to consider the opposite approach, multiple accounts for each child, holding different assets.

Here is an interesting discussion of that approach.
Might not be appropriate for all situations, bit worth considering:

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewt ... #p5949485

jimmy2017 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 18, 2023 10:59 pm I'm having a second child who will be three years younger than the first who currently has a 529. I'm debating whether to open a second 529 or heavily fund the first one to use and change the beneficiary after the first one goes to college for a few years. The rationale of just having one is lower risk if one of them doesn't go to college.

Any major pro/con considerations for having a 529 per kid vs one heavily funded one?

Thanks!

You may want to consider the opposite approach, multiple accounts for each child, holding different assets.

Here is an interesting discussion of that approach.
Might not be appropriate for all situations, bit worth considering l:

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewt ... #p5952610

I've followed this forum for around fifteen years and have learned so much here. So thanks for that up front. Having read many early retirement threads I have a good idea what to expect in response to my questions, but thought I'd add my situation to the mix in case I'm missing something situational... Here are the basics: 45 yrs old, LCOL area, intend to stay indefinitely Single, live with partner - no kids (won't change) Paid off house worth ~250k. Partner and I split the remaining living expenses. They intend to continue working another 10 years in a well-paying job, will be pension-eligible at that point. Investments: ~1.1 mil. in total investments (~50/50 split between equities and bonds/CDs) ~450k in TSP (FERS pension ~1200/month at ...

OP, I keep 3 months of expense in the checking account for bill paying. The rest of my emergency fund is in a MMF. Would that work for you? KlangFool Klang, Do you keep this in tax deferred or taxable? Taxable. It would be pointless to be in the tax deferred. You're right. It would be pointless. Unless you wanted to pay less taxes. 8-) I'm not going down KlangFool Avenue tonight, so go ahead and just say what you need to say and I'll leave it at that. But taxes on a 4.5% MMF are meaningful. If I move my MMF to tax deferred, selling stocks there to buy it, and sell my MMF to buy more stocks in taxable, I can then do the reverse when I need cash. But you know that already. :moneybag :moneybag Charles Joseph, "It depends". A) If sel...

So after taking five years to pass through Rick Ferri's stages of indexing (and being stuck in "complexity" for about four of them), I've completed my journey to the land of 100% indexing at rock-bottom costs, at an asset allocation I can live with. I've also succeeded for the most part (I think) in tax-efficient fund placement. I'm posting my portfolio here to ask if fellow Bogleheads could take a look and see if there are any flaws they notice, and any improvements that might be suggested. This has and continues to be a wonderful journey. This really isn't just about me but about the financial well-being and general piece of mind of my wife and other heirs when I pass. I am and continue to be extremely grateful to this communit...

So after taking five years to pass through Rick Ferri's stages of indexing (and being stuck in "complexity" for about four of them), I've completed my journey to the land of 100% indexing at rock-bottom costs, at an asset allocation I can live with. I've also succeeded for the most part (I think) in tax-efficient fund placement. I'm posting my portfolio here to ask if fellow Bogleheads could take a look and see if there are any flaws they notice, and any improvements that might be suggested. This has and continues to be a wonderful journey. This really isn't just about me but about the financial well-being and general piece of mind of my wife and other heirs when I pass. I am and continue to be extremely grateful to this communit...

I got notified by my employer HR on Mar 15th that they failed ADP (actual deferral percentage) test for 2022 and I am getting a what they are calling "Corrective Distribution". Does this impact my 2022 tax return? I almost finished my 2022 tax preparation and was planning to file it this weekend; now I am holding it off :( . Which tax year should include this corrective distribution? My plan fails every year apparently. It failed in 2021 and 2022. This 2022 tax return is my first time that I’ve needed to file a 1099-r for this. To the tune of $5200 unfortunately. As far as I understand it, this will impact your 2023 return. 1. You contributed to your 401k in 2022 2. the non discrimination testing was done in 2023 and they will ma...

I got notified by my employer HR on Mar 15th that they failed ADP (actual deferral percentage) test for 2022 and I am getting a what they are calling "Corrective Distribution". Does this impact my 2022 tax return? I almost finished my 2022 tax preparation and was planning to file it this weekend; now I am holding it off :( . Which tax year should include this corrective distribution? My plan fails every year apparently. It failed in 2021 and 2022. This 2022 tax return is my first time that I’ve needed to file a 1099-r for this. To the tune of $5200 unfortunately. As far as I understand it, this will impact your 2023 return. 1. You contributed to your 401k in 2022 2. the non discrimination testing was done in 2023 and they will ma...

So after taking five years to pass through Rick Ferri's stages of indexing (and being stuck in "complexity" for about four of them), I've completed my journey to the land of 100% indexing at rock-bottom costs, at an asset allocation I can live with. I've also succeeded for the most part (I think) in tax-efficient fund placement. I'm posting my portfolio here to ask if fellow Bogleheads could take a look and see if there are any flaws they notice, and any improvements that might be suggested. This has and continues to be a wonderful journey. This really isn't just about me but about the financial well-being and general piece of mind of my wife and other heirs when I pass. I am and continue to be extremely grateful to this communit...

FYI MMM stands for Mr. Money Mustache which is a popular website based on retiring very early with a frugal lifestyle. If I recall correctly his "except for" was that his spouse was still working and he had significant income from his web site. :oops: I never understand this criticism. He retired well before his web site took off. And in either case published his annual spending. Could he have been out and out lying? Possibly, but I’ve got no particular reason to think so I don't have a huge criticism but he's living part of his life off business expenses but not accounting for that. Imagine someone that writes a travel blog and travels around the world to jet-set destinations all year long. Their personal budget could be very lo...

Yes NC's minimum is 30/60k. The FB agent also recommended increasing the prop damage to 100k and 50k/100k for A. For me to get an umbrella, I need to be at 250/500 as well and that will increase my auto 6 month premium to $726 and $189 for a 1M umbrella. Speaking to the FB agent later today. Thank you all for the quick responses! Bogleheads rocks as usual !!:) Why are you thinking about getting an umbrella policy? I suspect you are concerned about getting sued by someone for harm you have caused them. Statistically, that is most likely to happen due to an auto accident. Increasing your homeowners liability will not protect you in that situation. That is why it is so much cheaper to do that compared to getting an umbrella policy, with the r...

gt4715b wrote: ↑Wed Mar 15, 2023 2:20 pm

marcopolo wrote: ↑Wed Mar 15, 2023 2:09 pm
By the way, what is SCR, and how does it differ from SWR, this is the first time I have seem that acronym?

It stands for Safe Consumption Rate. I've only seen it in Karsten's spreadsheet. It basically allows for supplemental cash flows, income and/or expenses, to be added. This allows people to model Social Security benefits, pensions or expected increases in expenses, such as health care costs later in life.

In the absence of the cash flows SCR = SWR.

It's kind of confusing because you can't withdraw from your investment portfolio at the SCR; you can basically withdraw (SCR - cash flows).

Makes sense.

Thanks for the explanation.

Marseille07 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 15, 2023 1:57 pm

gt4715b wrote: ↑Wed Mar 15, 2023 1:36 pm I've been playing with SWR long enough to instinctively know that a 5% SWR, indexed for inflation over 60 years with small supplemental cash flows is not a safe strategy.

5% SWR is not, but 5% FWR is probably okay so long as you don't have legacy motives. The VPW works somewhat similarly.

What is FWR? We seem to have some new acronyms being thrown around....

After all my research and years of learning, I feel comfortable quitting my job today since I'm financially independent, and today I would have a starting withdraw rate of around 5% and I would adjust that up for inflation each year . ... How did I arrive at ~5%? A number of tools and resources, but the one I keep coming back to is Karsten's ERN SWR Toolbox spreadsheet . I can't recommend it more highly. It's flexible, you can be as conservative as you want, and it accounts for a number of variables and scenarios. Is it perfect? No, but it's solid enough to stand alone as the only tool you use for determining WRs. I use his custom CAPE and take into account very discounted SS and super small side income starting in 30 years, and it says I'...

My umbrella requires 250/500 liability on the underlying auto policy. I never heard of a 30/60 policy. Some state minimums are ridiculously low. NH allows 25/50. To get my umbrella, I had to go to 250/500, IIRC. Yes NC's minimum is 30/60k. The FB agent also recommended increasing the prop damage to 100k and 50k/100k for A. For me to get an umbrella, I need to be at 250/500 as well and that will increase my auto 6 month premium to $726 and $189 for a 1M umbrella. Speaking to the FB agent later today. Thank you all for the quick responses! Bogleheads rocks as usual !!:) Why are you thinking about getting an umbrella policy? I suspect you are concerned about getting sued by someone for harm you have caused them. Statistically, that is most li...

lstone19 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 15, 2023 12:55 pm

marcopolo wrote: ↑Wed Mar 15, 2023 12:12 pm retitling involves creating a new account, with a different account number. All your automated transactions both push and pull will have to be set up again.

No, not necessarily. We have been able to retitle both our Fidelity joint brokerage account as well as our Bank of America checking account.

Interesting. We went through this last year, and we're told by Fidelity that it required setting up new accounts in the name of the trust.

My umbrella requires 250/500 liability on the underlying auto policy. I never heard of a 30/60 policy. Some state minimums are ridiculously low. NH allows 25/50. To get my umbrella, I had to go to 250/500, IIRC. Yes NC's minimum is 30/60k. The FB agent also recommended increasing the prop damage to 100k and 50k/100k for A. For me to get an umbrella, I need to be at 250/500 as well and that will increase my auto 6 month premium to $726 and $189 for a 1M umbrella. Speaking to the FB agent later today. Thank you all for the quick responses! Bogleheads rocks as usual !!:) Why are you thinking about getting an umbrella policy? I suspect you are concerned about getting sued by someone for harm you have caused them. Statistically, that is most li...

Back in December, my wife and I opened a Fidelity CMA as a joint account. We're now using it as our main checking account with lots of ACH pulls for bills on auto-pay. We'd now like to retitle it to our revocable trust on attorney advice. Anyone with experience doing this? Are there any risks of doing so such as the ACH pulls failing? (yes, I made mention of this idea back in December in another topic but I think it's well buried in that omnibus topic so this question probably best stands alone) retitling involves creating a new account, with a different account number. All your automated transactions both push and pull will have to be set up again. When we setup our revocable trust, we moved everything into it except our CMA. That also wi...

Regardless of how wild a ride it is, equities do perform better than bonds or cash over the long term. There’s no denying that. No one really knows the future, so if you bake in a little bit of flexibility, and you are faithful to the historical data and trends that we have, that’s really the best you can do. Oh really? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=2000&firstMonth=1&endYear=2023&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=1000000&annualOperation=2&annualAdjustment=50000&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=...

That’s why I said “ usually ” because in my scenario, and in others who are planning to have the option to exit the workplace very early, we will have all sorts of lumpy, spending and weird side income and changing variables. For us, it’s not theoretical at all. We live right now as if we are implementing and using this strategy. Our budget stays within these financial independence numbers, and I legitimately could stop working at any point, and may have to for various reasons. But instead of withdrawing from the portfolio, money keeps rolling into our checking account, which will further pad things, or give us opportunity to do something else. Well, that is kind of my point. It is easy to say you will draw 5% and keep increasing it at inf...

After over a decade of learning from and reading this forum and other great resources about investing, I've read countless arguments and presentations about SWRs and withdraw methods. WRs vary from 3-4% typically (below 3%), and withdraw methods and recommended asset allocations vary widely. But one thing is for sure, choosing your own withdraw rate once you retire is tough, and it's usually a measure 100 times, cut once situation. Finance is personal and each situation is different. Despite the diversity, the variables for most of our situations are pretty similar, but the inputs to those variables are different. Retirement age, income, lifestyle, cost of living, family obligations, inheritance, health, life expectancy, goals, etc. we all...

watchnerd wrote: ↑Tue Mar 14, 2023 8:12 pm

TinyHouse wrote: ↑Tue Mar 14, 2023 8:04 pm

Yeah, 5% real and today’s market and dollars.

5% real?

So if we have 4% inflation, you're going to withdraw 9%?

That's not how real dollar withdrawal math works.

After over a decade of learning from and reading this forum and other great resources about investing, I've read countless arguments and presentations about SWRs and withdraw methods. WRs vary from 3-4% typically (below 3%), and withdraw methods and recommended asset allocations vary widely. But one thing is for sure, choosing your own withdraw rate once you retire is tough, and it's usually a measure 100 times, cut once situation. Finance is personal and each situation is different. Despite the diversity, the variables for most of our situations are pretty similar, but the inputs to those variables are different. Retirement age, income, lifestyle, cost of living, family obligations, inheritance, health, life expectancy, goals, etc. we all...

mikeyzito22 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 14, 2023 4:32 pm When you sign up for a CMA, does it show on the interface at Fidelity as a seperate account to the left and is it included in your asset allocation when performing performance ir analysis tabs on the portfolio?

It shows up just like any other account.
It is on the left on your list of account (which is customizable), and it shows up in the analysis tab (also customizable to include/exclude whichever accounts you want).

OP, When you asked the wrong question, you would never get the right answer! A) How much do you need at retirement? B) How much do you need to save to reach that goal? C) "Save first and spend later" aka "Pay Yourself First". D) If you cannot afford to retire, how can you afford to pay for college education? E) If you are still paying for student loan, how can you afford to pay for the college education? Start answering those big questions first before deciding how much you can spend. If you spend first and save later, how could you save anything? Saving is your lowest priority. You pay everyone else first. KlangFool Klang, I looked forward to your input as I appreciate your succinct wisdom on this board. And actually, ...

The CMA account will auto sell SPAXX, as well as most other Money Market funds (I use FZDXX). But, it will not auto-buy, so you have to manually purchase it when you move cash into the CMA account.

We’ve done all the islands, including Molokai and Lana’i at least once. I would pick one and go there. There is plenty to do on any of the major islands to fill a week. Our favorite is Kauai because of the beauty of the north shore, but you might prefer the Poipu area because it’s more kid friendly. The big island doesn't have the beaches that the other islands do , but has Volcanoes National Park. That is true, we have our own beaches. :beer We live about 10-15 minutes from Hapuna, Mauna Kea, and Mau'umae, beaches. No shortage of nice beaches on this part of the island. I agree with you, given the limited time, picking one island to explore would be my recommendation. Envious of you marcopolo. As you no doubt know, a hidden gem near Hapun...

Hi, I have 2 Kids 10 and 6. I have been saving for their college in a taxable account. I have saved 30K for first kid and 20K for the second. As my income has increased, I realize that I am paying a lot of tax on dividends on the taxable account. I live in CA. I have few questions, 1) Is it good to have a 529 plan for the kids ? It appears like I would get tax deferred growth on this 2) I am worried what if I have excess money left on this account after the kids finish college ? my current thinking is that, This should still be ok as I am getting tax deferred growth and I can pay 10% penalty on the growth and possibly pay lower tax at a later time. 3) has anyone used Schwab 529 plan (Schwab is my main brokerage and I would like to use this...

The SEC yield on BND is 4.4% today. Here is a thought experiment: What if the yield on intermediate bonds slowly ground upwards over the next 6 years to 14%? I.e. where rates were 40 years ago. 1. Would BND have a negative return for every single year of the next 6 years? 2. Would BND have a positive return, but just lower than the 4.4% current yield? 3. Something else? I chose 6 years because that is duration of the fund. Would the answers be different if the time period of yield appreciation was 12 years? I think it gets pretty complicated because the fund is constantly replacing old bonds with new ones. But, generally speaking, for every percentage point of interest rate increase, a bond fund's NAV would decrease the same percentage as ...

Hi, I am planning to cover Big Island and Kauai in one trip. Has anyone done this before? If yes, can you help me in covering the major places. I am planning 4 days for each island during December. Not much into hiking but small hikes are okay as have kids of age 12-14. If anyone has similar itinerary, would be great. i noticed you are not getting a lot of actual ideas about major things to do. Here are some highlights of the Big Island for a short stay: Volcanoes national park - Given its distance from Kona, I would probably only recommend this if you do the whole stay on BI, or if there is active lava flowing when you are on island. Night snorkel with Manta Ray's - This is a really fantastic experience Hapuna Beach - Probably the nicest ...

quantAndHold wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 2:07 pm We’ve done all the islands, including Molokai and Lana’i at least once. I would pick one and go there. There is plenty to do on any of the major islands to fill a week.

Our favorite is Kauai because of the beauty of the north shore, but you might prefer the Poipu area because it’s more kid friendly. The big island doesn't have the beaches that the other islands do, but has Volcanoes National Park.

That is true, we have our own beaches.

We live about 10-15 minutes from Hapuna, Mauna Kea, and Mau'umae, beaches. No shortage of nice beaches on this part of the island.

I agree with you, given the limited time, picking one island to explore would be my recommendation.

PowderDay9 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 11:26 pm When calculating this ratio, do you use inflation adjusted historical earnings to compare to current net worth?

Thanks for raining on my parade!

I was feeling pretty good about myself, as our ratio is greater than 1 using nominal dollars!

I haven't calculated it. but I suspect using inflation adjusted earnings would put our ratio below 1

Am I interpreting form 8814 correctly, technically a minor can have up to $11,500 in unearned income- interest/dividends and I would only pay $150 in taxes on their behalf?!? They have no earned income. Then I can funnel certain assets under said minor to reduce my own tax liability (either way I would still be in 32% tax bracket given my other income but I could avoid paying 32% on the $11,500 non-qualified dividends/interest?). You should double check the form. This is not correct. The first $1150 of unearned income is free. The next $1150 is taxed at 10%. The rest is taxed at parents rate. What do you mean by funnel? If you plan to give your child the money for good, then the first $2300 of unearned income they get is taxed favorably. I...

Surely you have heard of places that have had hyper inflation? 1) Do you own any physical gold/silver? I do. Weimar German hyperinflation and at the peak of the hyperinflation in 1923, people stopped accepting Papermarks, only accepted Goldmarks, at that time a house costs much the same as before the war about 288 ounces of gold. Rather than three-fund, I prefer three-assets, British land (house), US stocks, physical gold (Singapore is taking over that lead compared to former Swiss based). Three currencies, three assets. Many nowadays have too much faith in low counter-party risk, such as broker and custodian (pooled shares) structures, similarly bank deposits become the banks money once deposited. In a increasingly 'bail-in' directional t...

May I ask a possibly dumb question? The OP gives a premise in which Medicaid is not desired, but ACA is. Why is this? Does being on Medicaid (versus ACA) lead to sub-standard health care/lack of options? During job loss, I've been on ACA 3 times. At least 1 of the 3 had me on a plan that couldn't have been any better than Medicaid, e.g. I had to seek healthcare at specifically defined clinics where you took a number, waited forever, etc. I guess I'm wondering if ACA can be just as bad as Medicaid might be if you have a bad plan (low-end plan). On the other hand, there may not be a cap on how good it could be. As usual I think that things are very apples and oranges for comparison purposes for all of us living in various places with things ...

Thanks. I understand the tax credit amount change with more persons insured, but thought the cliff also was affected when it existed. I probably was not paying close enough attention to the estimation process when I ran sone estimates and had that impression. It seems that the inflation adjustment to FPL is in play even when someone does not enroll in Medicare during the year, but would play out differently in that case. The cliff when it existed, and if/when it comes back is based on 400% of FPL. FPL is derived from family size, not number of insured. If family income is below family cliff, the tax credit works just like above. If family income is above cliff, the tax credit is zeroed out. So, a $1 change in income can cause thousands of ...

How much you spend on premiums depends on how many are insured. So if the premium tax credit is based on the percentage of income one would need to spend to get on the average silver plan, wouldn't the cliff point be higher with more people insured? When our son was in college, I would run estimates on the enrollment site with and without him insured. (We paid separately for an insurance plan arranged by the university instead, but checked the price difference from including him on our plan each year). The cliff point would be higher, and at given income level, the size of the tax credit would be higher with 3 insured instead of 2. It is not because the cliff point is higher. The cliff point is set by income now (FPL later, based on family...

KlangFool wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 6:15 pm

marcopolo wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 6:11 pm

KlangFool wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:00 am OP,

Why does any of this really matters?

If your portfolio is big enough, none of this matters. If your portfolio is not big enough, spend less and then it is big enough.

KlangFool

It seems the OP is trying to determine if their portfolio is "big enough".

How do you determine if yours is big enough or not without considering these things you say don't matter?

marcopolo,

If somebody's portfolio is at 50X or bigger, do you think inflation matters?

KlangFool

Surely you have heard of places that have had hyper inflation?

By the way, do you have 50x? If not, then perhaps it matters to you too?

KlangFool wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:00 am OP,

Why does any of this really matters?

If your portfolio is big enough, none of this matters. If your portfolio is not big enough, spend less and then it is big enough.

KlangFool

It seems the OP is trying to determine if their portfolio is "big enough".

How do you determine if yours is big enough or not without considering these things you say don't matter?

OP,
your approach seems reasonable. Are the Vanguard estimates of asset returns (I pretty much ignore Vanguard's estimates) nominal? or are they already in terms of real returns?

Seems like the threshold should go down though. The threshold is simply 138% of FPL. FPL is indexed to inflation. It goes up every year. When the OP entered their income info in Nov, they were (just) above the old threshold for 2022. When they updated their info, but left their income the same, they are now below the threshold for 2023. Thanks. It is interesting that the minimum income and maximum income to qualify for a premium tax credit behave differently when the number of insured persons in a household changes. Neither has anything to do with number of insured persons. The lower threshold is 138% of FPL (where FPL is based on number of people in Household, not number insured) The upper threshold is currently based on family income onl...

Only thing I can think of would be to rent out your current place once you move into the new place if the market drops and you really don't want to sell at that point. But then a timer starts on selling it as primary residence for tax purposes. Yes, this would be the option. Do you desire to be a landlord? I would not have considered doing this. We sold our house and moved into a rental for about 9 months while our new home was being constructed. The logistics were a little complicated, as they were in different states. But, it allowed us to be close to the build, so we could check in on it on a very regular basis as it was progressing. That allowed us to catch a few things that would either been missed, or more costly to fix later.

Northern Flicker wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 10:21 pm Seems like the threshold should go down though.

The threshold is simply 138% of FPL.
FPL is indexed to inflation. It goes up every year.
When the OP entered their income info in Nov, they were (just) above the old threshold for 2022. When they updated their info, but left their income the same, they are now below the threshold for 2023.

Northern Flicker wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:15 pm This doesn't make sense to me. All household income is included in the determination whether or not all household members with income are on the insurance. Dropping an enrollee from the insurance should cause the advance premium tax credit to go down and premium to go up, not go the other way until even falling below the minimum income to qualify.

The income did not change.
The threshold for Medicaid changed.

The numbers you listed in your post are correct. FPL for 2023 ACA coverage is $18,310. 2023 FPL of $19,720 applies to 2024 coverage. See towards bottom of this page, or the chart on healthcare.gov: https://thefinancebuff.com/federal-poverty-levels-for-obamacare.html Michigan Medicaid for family of 2 is 133% x $18,310 or $24,352. Which suggests your $25,550 is fine. https://www.michigan.gov/healthymiplan/who I would (by phone or online at healthcare.gov) verify two things. When you made the change, which it sounds like you might have done by phone, did they incorrectly change some detail from that earlier application? Such as - incorrectly modifying the family size (somehow, and I'm guessing here, to 1), or did they somehow delete an income...

The numbers you listed in your post are correct. FPL for 2023 ACA coverage is $18,310. 2023 FPL of $19,720 applies to 2024 coverage. See towards bottom of this page, or the chart on healthcare.gov: https://thefinancebuff.com/federal-poverty-levels-for-obamacare.html Michigan Medicaid for family of 2 is 133% x $18,310 or $24,352. Which suggests your $25,550 is fine. https://www.michigan.gov/healthymiplan/who I would (by phone or online at healthcare.gov) verify two things. When you made the change, which it sounds like you might have done by phone, did they incorrectly change some detail from that earlier application? Such as - incorrectly modifying the family size (somehow, and I'm guessing here, to 1), or did they somehow delete an income...