Search found 953 matches

by marcopolo
Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: physics/math major looking for programmer/analyst job?
Replies: 48
Views: 1592

Re: physics/math major looking for programmer/analyst job?

OP, The job market is not as great as the unemployment number claimed it to be. My nephew has a computer science degree. It still took him more than 1 year to find a job. KlangFool many of my college classmates in my field had 3+ job offers by november of their senior year. different experiences. T...
by marcopolo
Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using ACA for early retirement years
Replies: 103
Views: 6028

Re: Using ACA for early retirement years

As someone "in the thick of it" what is recommended course of action that provides a more solid plan? If one is committed to retiring before being Medicare eligible (which you are I both did) then I think one needs to set aside a very healthy amount in the budget for health care coverage. You do ha...
by marcopolo
Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using ACA for early retirement years
Replies: 103
Views: 6028

Re: Using ACA for early retirement years

"Hope" is not a strategy, but it is necessary for retirement planning. I think it is reasonable to assume that both social security and Medicare will change in the future. However, nobody can tell you exactly when and how much they may change. In my planning for early retirement, I assumed zero soc...
by marcopolo
Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using ACA for early retirement years
Replies: 103
Views: 6028

Re: Using ACA for early retirement years

My concern is for someone retiring now in their 50s and having to rely on ACA until Medicare. For those early retirees on ACA... are you planning to stay on ACA until Medicare? Thanks. There are several podcasts and blogs out there which are very good when it comes to Financially Independent Retire...
by marcopolo
Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 3594

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

. Investing in common stocks in order to give up working for a living as soon as possible is a relatively modern invention. It has worked for a couple of generations, but maybe it's becoming an overgrazed path to wealth. Maybe the juice has been sucked out of it. Now we have all the "factor" theori...
by marcopolo
Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using ACA for early retirement years
Replies: 103
Views: 6028

Re: Using ACA for early retirement years

Good point. But that can go either way. Some people that are healthy are paying more due to that "feature". Kind of like how all group health insurance (like those provided by most employers) works? I don't hear people complaining about that. Group insurance (like those provided by employers) is no...
by marcopolo
Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using ACA for early retirement years
Replies: 103
Views: 6028

Re: Using ACA for early retirement years

I am planning to use the ACA for early retirement (in late 40s). Of course, if things change that can radically alter my expenses. Without getting into politics, I think if there are any changes, they will probably be on the margins. Obviously the big deal killer would be adding asset tests to the ...
by marcopolo
Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using ACA for early retirement years
Replies: 103
Views: 6028

Re: Using ACA for early retirement years

I am planning to use the ACA for early retirement (in late 40s). Of course, if things change that can radically alter my expenses. Without getting into politics, I think if there are any changes, they will probably be on the margins. Obviously the big deal killer would be adding asset tests to the ...
by marcopolo
Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using ACA for early retirement years
Replies: 103
Views: 6028

Re: Using ACA for early retirement years

I am planning to use the ACA for early retirement (in late 40s). Of course, if things change that can radically alter my expenses. Without getting into politics, I think if there are any changes, they will probably be on the margins. Obviously the big deal killer would be adding asset tests to the ...
by marcopolo
Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using ACA for early retirement years
Replies: 103
Views: 6028

Re: Using ACA for early retirement years

I always wonder how many people would retire early if health care were not a concern, passing on our well paying jobs to the next generation, instead of hanging onto them until Medicare age, praying we are not subject to age discrimination. ACA has definitely opened up the ER option for some who wo...
by marcopolo
Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using ACA for early retirement years
Replies: 103
Views: 6028

Re: Using ACA for early retirement years

Also wanted to add: if you do get ACA subsidy, check to see if your state is one which implemented the "Silver Switcheroo" (google that term to get a list, or the "ACA Signups" web site linked in my other post has a list as well). If so, you might find that a Gold plan with better benefits is actua...
by marcopolo
Tue Aug 14, 2018 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 3594

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

Marcopolo, I think there is more to CAPE than historical data. It’s logical that the more expensive it is to purchase a dollar of earnings, the more likely the price is to move down rather than up. Dave Is there some notion of prices as a function of earning being affecting future returns? I suspec...
by marcopolo
Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using ACA for early retirement years
Replies: 103
Views: 6028

Re: Using ACA for early retirement years

I think this is the most likely outcome. Several states have already, or are in the process of putting in state level protections similar to ACA in some respects. MA had "RomneyCare" before ACA. Part of my planning includes living in a state that has been supportive of ACA spirit/intent and has or ...
by marcopolo
Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using ACA for early retirement years
Replies: 103
Views: 6028

Re: Using ACA for early retirement years

I think this is the most likely outcome. Several states have already, or are in the process of putting in state level protections similar to ACA in some respects. MA had "RomneyCare" before ACA. Part of my planning includes living in a state that has been supportive of ACA spirit/intent and has or ...
by marcopolo
Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 3594

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

Marcopolo, When I say the distributions shift left and the bad outcomes are worse, I’m not looking at any of the above charts. I’m just using my version of common sense. We all tend to anchor on our greatest net worth or our current net worth. If markets fall to an average PE of say 15-20 (I know w...
by marcopolo
Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using ACA for early retirement years
Replies: 103
Views: 6028

Re: Using ACA for early retirement years

+1 about choosing the right state for your needs. Not possible/practical for most folks, though. Glad DW and I are now both on Medicare and with an excellent plan (both low cost and high quality) Also wanted to add that while Medicare is quite likely in a much safer place than ACA, its not like var...
by marcopolo
Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using ACA for early retirement years
Replies: 103
Views: 6028

Re: Using ACA for early retirement years

+1 about choosing the right state for your needs. Not possible/practical for most folks, though. Glad DW and I are now both on Medicare and with an excellent plan (both low cost and high quality) Just like other factors such as cost of living, climate, taxes, proximity to family, etc. availability ...
by marcopolo
Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using ACA for early retirement years
Replies: 103
Views: 6028

Re: Using ACA for early retirement years

Odds are we will not just see the ACA repealed and nothing shoved in place. Hmm. I'm not sure how likely that is. But nobody can tell you if the cost of that plan will be 15k or 30k or if it will even be available. I agree with that. We shall see. My opinion Is that we may see considerably more div...
by marcopolo
Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 204
Views: 11001

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

How many threads/posts were there back in 2008-2009, when CAPE was under its historic mean and median, where CAPE proponents were advocating that people dump everything they could into stocks and advocating 6% withdrawal rates for retirees? The absence of such recommendations should give one pause....
by marcopolo
Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 3594

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

2) How well has CAPE predicted returns AFTER Shiller first proposed it in 1988? Correlations aren't always the best thing to look at. CAPE's correlation has actually gone up but so has its forecast error. And forecast error is probably what people really care about. Out-of-sample forecasts made sin...
by marcopolo
Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 3594

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

Marcopolo, 1) I would use a lower number perhaps 3-3.5%. I think the best way to do this is with Monte Carlo for your specific proposed AA. 2) don’t have a good answer for you on that one. My understanding of CAPE is probably about the same as yours. I am impressed by the shifting dispersion of pot...
by marcopolo
Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using ACA for early retirement years
Replies: 103
Views: 6028

Re: Using ACA for early retirement years

My concern is for someone retiring now in their 50s and having to rely on ACA until Medicare. For those early retirees on ACA... are you planning to stay on ACA until Medicare? Thanks. That is my current plan, for as long as it is around, which may or may not be until I reach Medicare age. I am 51 ...
by marcopolo
Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 204
Views: 11001

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

How many threads/posts were there back in 2008-2009, when CAPE was under its historic mean and median, where CAPE proponents were advocating that people dump everything they could into stocks and advocating 6% withdrawal rates for retirees? The absence of such recommendations should give one pause....
by marcopolo
Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 3594

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

I think it’s Bernstein or maybe Zwecher who refers to “Murphy’s Law Of Retirement”. An investor profits from a long bull market. As valuations rise, his portfolio swells. Seeing the larger than expected portfolio, the investor decides to retire. But he is retiring into a period of high valuations a...
by marcopolo
Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 3594

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

No, you're getting caught in a mental trap by the way you framed your question. If valuations were not currently at their second highest levels in history, I'd happily sign up for a 30 year retirement plan, 50-50 stocks/bonds and a 4% SWR. But I don't consider it excessively conservative to not wan...
by marcopolo
Mon Aug 13, 2018 2:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First time ACA coverage with question
Replies: 21
Views: 1797

Re: First time ACA coverage with question

Marcopolo, Did you read the page 17 of form 8962? The example about Gary and his 25 year old nondependent son? https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/i8962.pdf Yes. It is more likely we will be in scenario 4 (other allocation methods). If i understand it correctly. A portion of the premium paid, and the S...
by marcopolo
Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First time ACA coverage with question
Replies: 21
Views: 1797

Re: First time ACA coverage with question

When the student gets their own insurance from a job, you will notify the Marketpkace about the change and get a new premium. The student is not on your taxes as dependent and so their income will not be part of the family income. ACA follows tax status. I’m adding that student can be part of house...
by marcopolo
Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First time ACA coverage with question
Replies: 21
Views: 1797

Re: First time ACA coverage with question

When the student gets their own insurance from a job, you will notify the Marketpkace about the change and get a new premium. The student is not on your taxes as dependent and so their income will not be part of the family income. ACA follows tax status. I’m adding that student can be part of house...
by marcopolo
Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First time ACA coverage with question
Replies: 21
Views: 1797

Re: First time ACA coverage with question

Remember that a yearly income is used to determine the subsidy and can be decreased with a traditional IRA or 401 contribution. Do you know how the family yearly income is computed? My understanding is that it includes everyone that was covered (family income). So what happens when someone graduate...
by marcopolo
Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: iORP Monte Carlo vs FireCalc
Replies: 10
Views: 1053

Re: iORP Monte Carlo vs FireCalc

I think I understand how these tools work, but I'm getting some pretty bad results from iORP Monte Carlo, which I'm trying to understand. I run iORP standard and it gives me 80K discretionary spending. Of course, this doesn't take into account SoR risk. So I add in taxes, and get 100K, and plug thi...
by marcopolo
Sat Aug 11, 2018 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First time ACA coverage with question
Replies: 21
Views: 1797

Re: First time ACA coverage with question

It apparently gets a bit complicated when the family size changes. I asked similar question a while back, and got clarification.
The instructions that are referenced are not for the faint of heart.

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=245147&p=3845668&hilit=ACA#p3845668
by marcopolo
Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mid 30s Crisis: Personal budget, savings and goals
Replies: 36
Views: 6959

Re: Mid 30s Crisis: Personal budget, savings and goals

As others have mentioned, you are doing very well. I know this is a forum mostly dedicated to saving and investing as much as possible. But, i would highly recommend that you do not forget to "enjoy the ride". At your age, with total income well over $300k/yr, and a net worth around $2M, having a va...
by marcopolo
Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 204
Views: 11001

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

Sperry, If you’ve benefitted from the long bull, and want to spend those profits, might it make sense to realize some of those profits and save them as cash and short term bonds? That would be an AA change towards the more conservative. Dave Doesn't re-balancing do this without needing to change yo...
by marcopolo
Thu Aug 09, 2018 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 204
Views: 11001

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

To help those for whom this seems difficult First, when young and starting out on your investment career, unless lucky to be born to wealth, your AA should be dominated by your ability and willingness to take risk. Valuations won't matter much if at all because you should be saving and investing as...
by marcopolo
Thu Aug 09, 2018 12:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ask for extension or turn down job offer?
Replies: 22
Views: 1361

Re: Ask for extension or turn down job offer?

Does he have the contact information of the recently resigned supervisor? Not only can he get advice from the former employee on how the company will approach the request, but he might be able to start networking with other companies and get an industry mentor. If he is super lucky, the former supe...
by marcopolo
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ask for extension or turn down job offer?
Replies: 22
Views: 1361

Re: Ask for extension or turn down job offer?

A friend of my son living with us this summer just received an offer for next summer, after an internship. This continues to be a common practice. I would have your son sit down and have a honest conversation with one of the production leaders. (not HR) Explain that he enjoyed the internship and is...
by marcopolo
Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ask for extension or turn down job offer?
Replies: 22
Views: 1361

Re: Ask for extension or turn down job offer?

What type of engineering student is he and what’s the demand? If he is a software engineer, for example, he has all the power and companies will do pretty much anything he wants if he performed well during the internship. If he majored in Mechanical Engineering that may not be the case. But I think...
by marcopolo
Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ask for extension or turn down job offer?
Replies: 22
Views: 1361

Re: Ask for extension or turn down job offer?

Cant he accept the offer, which doesn't start for a year, keep interviewing and if something better comes along he can then call the first job back and apologize and let them know he has taken another offer. Also he can use first offer to then have leverage on any new offers.... The concern i have ...
by marcopolo
Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ask for extension or turn down job offer?
Replies: 22
Views: 1361

Ask for extension or turn down job offer?

My son asked for some advice today, and I am a bit torn about what to tell him. I figured i would reach out here to see if some folks here have had similar situation with their kids. Son is entering his senior year of an engineering program. He is in the last week of a summer internship. The company...
by marcopolo
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?
Replies: 366
Views: 14188

Re: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?

Aye, there is little "aid" in financial aid, it is a loan. No, I would not feel I am "taking advantage" of that system. As I noted earlier, there are two universities within biking distance of my home (one private, one public) where kids can pretty easily cash-flow the entirety of their own tuition...
by marcopolo
Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?
Replies: 366
Views: 14188

Re: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?

Kids need to have skin in the game. I firmly believe that college is a necessity and a right of passage. Part of that right of passage involves become mature enough to deal with the loans and debts that eventually come due. College should not be treated as an excuse to party for 4 years. I feel tha...
by marcopolo
Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?
Replies: 366
Views: 14188

Re: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?

This isn't rocket science, the student/child files their own return. Voila, they qualify for "financial aid" and also get to take advantage of the tax credits. This is how each and every one of the 7 children in my family did it (4 of whom finished at least an undergrad degree, with zero debt and z...
by marcopolo
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?
Replies: 366
Views: 14188

Re: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?

I have a question for those that have more than sufficient income and assets to fund their kids education, but are choosing not to do so for various reasons. How does that work in practice? Maybe they can get some merit aid. But most financial aid seems to be need-based. If parents can't show need,...
by marcopolo
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?
Replies: 366
Views: 14188

Re: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?

I have a question for those that have more than sufficient income and assets to fund their kids education, but are choosing not to do so for various reasons. How does that work in practice? Maybe they can get some merit aid. But most financial aid seems to be need-based. If parents can't show need,...
by marcopolo
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?
Replies: 366
Views: 14188

Re: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?

I have a question for those that have more than sufficient income and assets to fund their kids education, but are choosing not to do so for various reasons. How does that work in practice? Maybe they can get some merit aid. But most financial aid seems to be need-based. If parents can't show need, ...
by marcopolo
Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 204
Views: 11001

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

I believe that you are saying that CAPE 10 "was" the best predictor for "past returns" (based upon whatever academic methodology somebody dreamt up to make that chart). That's really not the same thing.... Why would I need to forecast past returns when I can just look them up on Yahoo Finance? Exac...
by marcopolo
Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?
Replies: 94
Views: 4276

Re: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?

As many have pointed out, you don't invest in a lump sum at the peak. Even if you use that hypothetical, the sp500 was about 1450 in March 2000. It has nearly double in price since then. So, doubling in 18 years, using rule of 72, implies a compound growth rate of about 4%, and that is just on price...
by marcopolo
Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"
Replies: 232
Views: 19171

Re: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"

The next really big move by FIDO would be to go truly mutual like Vanguard. Then John Bogle will know he has changed the world. Maybe Jack could send the Johnsons an autographed copy of “Enough” :) While i am a big fan of passive investing, I am really glad Fidelity is a profit making entity. I bel...
by marcopolo
Tue Aug 07, 2018 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"
Replies: 232
Views: 19171

Re: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"

The next really big move by FIDO would be to go truly mutual like Vanguard. Then John Bogle will know he has changed the world. Maybe Jack could send the Johnsons an autographed copy of “Enough” :) While i am a big fan of passive investing, I am really glad Fidelity is a profit making entity. I bel...
by marcopolo
Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule .. but when?
Replies: 35
Views: 4149

Re: 4% rule .. but when?

So person A retires at year 2007 with $1M. This person decides he can live with $40k/year Person B has the same $1M at year 2007. At year 2009, the stock market has crashed and and lost 50% value, so $500k are left. This person decides he can live with $20k/year You could argue that 100% stocks is ...