Search found 740 matches

by marcopolo
Sun Jun 17, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 41
Views: 2112

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

Anything except the most conservative portfolio should be able to do more than just keep up with inflation. If you look at the Trinity study, most of the portfolios with at least 50% equities have very substantial terminal values. But you are using historical market return data to justify your conc...
by marcopolo
Sun Jun 17, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tracking spending before retirement useful for estimating retirement expenses?
Replies: 35
Views: 1758

Re: Tracking spending before retirement useful for estimating retirement expenses?

What element of your "monthly/ongoing" housing costs are you talking about when you say these costs will be more than double what you spend now? I am assuming that you will be mortgage free so it should just be the monthly running costs you are talking about here. Thinking about specific line items...
by marcopolo
Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tracking spending before retirement useful for estimating retirement expenses?
Replies: 35
Views: 1758

Re: Tracking spending before retirement useful for estimating retirement expenses?

For people who have already made the transition, does your expenses in retirement resemble that during the years leading up to retirement? If so, is that a coincidence, or is it because you are essentially doing the same things as before? Yes, it resembled it. No, it wasn't exactly the same. But it...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 16, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tracking spending before retirement useful for estimating retirement expenses?
Replies: 35
Views: 1758

Re: Tracking spending before retirement useful for estimating retirement expenses?

Tracking expenses a year or two prior to retirement is absolutely useful. Your post retirement projection needs to include simple but mostly obvious adjustments. Do you commute 25 ow daily to work; your auto operating expenses might drop. Retirement may mean more travel or golf. It’s likely that ma...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tracking spending before retirement useful for estimating retirement expenses?
Replies: 35
Views: 1758

Re: Tracking spending before retirement useful for estimating retirement expenses?

Tracking expenses a year or two prior to retirement is absolutely useful. Your post retirement projection needs to include simple but mostly obvious adjustments. Do you commute 25 ow daily to work; your auto operating expenses might drop. Retirement may mean more travel or golf. It’s likely that ma...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tracking spending before retirement useful for estimating retirement expenses?
Replies: 35
Views: 1758

Re: Tracking spending before retirement useful for estimating retirement expenses?

Retired 5 years. Our expenses went up considerably after retirement. Our home costs (taxes, fees, utilities and insurance) stayed the same or increased a little, and then we did some remodeling. Our food costs went up because we try to eat healthier and grass fed beef costs a lot more than the grai...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tracking spending before retirement useful for estimating retirement expenses?
Replies: 35
Views: 1758

Re: Tracking spending before retirement useful for estimating retirement expenses?

I think of our pre-retirement expenses as a baseline for our retirement expenses (now semi-retired). Once you have the baseline, then you make adjustments based on how your life will change once you are retired. So far, our expenses are similar or have changed in ways that were predictable. I am ha...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tracking spending before retirement useful for estimating retirement expenses?
Replies: 35
Views: 1758

Tracking spending before retirement useful for estimating retirement expenses?

In a couple recent thread: Long time retirees: how much do you really need? ( https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=251838 ) How much money do you want to retire? ( https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=224799 ) A number of people suggested tracking expenses a few years...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Juggling ACA premium credit and non-refundable tax credits
Replies: 6
Views: 477

Re: Juggling ACA premium credit and non-refundable tax credits

A completely legal, neat trick you can use if you have some flexibility in estimating your income for the purpose of ACA, and are expecting to lose out some tax credit because it is non-refundable. You can estimate your income on the lower side, get a bigger upfront premium credit which will have t...
by marcopolo
Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 173
Views: 9663

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

MD&P, I really have no problem with your investment strategy. You seem to be happy with it, and with your resources, it does not matter much anyway. I wish you luck in your endeavors. I don't really understand some of the vitriol aimed your way. I am, however, a bit curious as to what you hope to ge...
by marcopolo
Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question for those who used 529 plans
Replies: 46
Views: 2284

Re: Question for those who used 529 plans

As you have seen from a lot of the responses, your performance can vary quite a bit depending on what you invest in inside the account, and how those asset classes perform over the time frame you are invested. We opened 529s for our kids as soon as they were born, and contributed for each until they...
by marcopolo
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Preferred Services?
Replies: 19
Views: 1579

Re: Fidelity Preferred Services?

...At the last meeting, we had an interesting conversation about the tax inefficiency of FSTVX vs VTSAX Marcopolo, Curious as to the specifics of this conversation. From a quick look at both funds, it appears the after-tax returns as a % of the before-tax returns are almost identical (I compared th...
by marcopolo
Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are you including SS in your planning model? Are the benefits really that high?
Replies: 148
Views: 10961

Re: Are you including SS in your planning model? Are the benefits really that high?

Plan for no SS, no pension, 0% real growth, elimination of Roth and HSA tax advantages, inability to work past 65, death of a spouse, a 100-year lifespan with the last 20 years in assisted living, and a zombie apocalypse, and you'll be fine. If things turn out rosier, that's just extra gravy. That ...
by marcopolo
Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Preferred Services?
Replies: 19
Views: 1579

Re: Fidelity Preferred Services?

The downside is that if I call, I'm immediately tagged as a private client with a manager and am asked if I want to be transferred to him. No.....I don't want to leave a voicemail for someone to then call me with the answer and of course use the opportunity to weazle questions about getting managed...
by marcopolo
Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Preferred Services?
Replies: 19
Views: 1579

Re: Fidelity Preferred Services?

...At the last meeting, we had an interesting conversation about the tax inefficiency of FSTVX vs VTSAX Marcopolo, Curious as to the specifics of this conversation. From a quick look at both funds, it appears the after-tax returns as a % of the before-tax returns are almost identical (I compared th...
by marcopolo
Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Preferred Services?
Replies: 19
Views: 1579

Re: Fidelity Preferred Services?

Asking google "what is fidelity preferred services?" gets me (I opened nothing) that it's $100k. At $250k you get premium services. I'm a Private Client which I think is over $1MM. There's likely something in between and above. Maybe caterpillar services and round robin services..... I do know that...
by marcopolo
Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are you including SS in your planning model? Are the benefits really that high?
Replies: 148
Views: 10961

Re: Are you including SS in your planning model? Are the benefits really that high?

Plan for no SS, no pension, 0% real growth, elimination of Roth and HSA tax advantages, inability to work past 65, death of a spouse, a 100-year lifespan with the last 20 years in assisted living, and a zombie apocalypse, and you'll be fine. If things turn out rosier, that's just extra gravy. That ...
by marcopolo
Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are you including SS in your planning model? Are the benefits really that high?
Replies: 148
Views: 10961

Re: Are you including SS in your planning model? Are the benefits really that high?

I'm under the impression that it won't be that easy to check. I don't think I can check it with my credit being frozen, which I froze after the Experian leak. Can I get the information at my local SS office? Frozen credit has no impact on checking SS benefits. Go to this link and create an account ...
by marcopolo
Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are you including SS in your planning model? Are the benefits really that high?
Replies: 148
Views: 10961

Re: Are you including SS in your planning model? Are the benefits really that high?

I'm under the impression that it won't be that easy to check. I don't think I can check it with my credit being frozen, which I froze after the Experian leak. Can I get the information at my local SS office? Frozen credit has no impact on checking SS benefits. Go to this link and create an account ...
by marcopolo
Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: long term care insurance
Replies: 112
Views: 5357

Re: long term care insurance

pintail07 wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:11 pm
Isn't this your website,
https://www.ltcshop.com/

At least admit you are mostly a long term care insurance broker.
Just in the interest of Full Disclosure. pintail07, are you also in the business of selling LTC policies, particularly Hybrid policies of the type WoW2012 seems to frown upon?
by marcopolo
Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are you including SS in your planning model? Are the benefits really that high?
Replies: 148
Views: 10961

Re: Are you including SS in your planning model? Are the benefits really that high?

I have not used social security in any retirement planing model since I began modeling back in my 20s. Like I said, I hadn't spent much time looking at SS and I never include it in my planing. Because, holy crap, if we really do get those types of benefits in 18 years it radically alters my model. ...
by marcopolo
Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to convince my co-worker to invest more?
Replies: 47
Views: 3193

Re: How to convince my co-worker to invest more?

When I was 26, I was halfway through my Ph.D. studies. I didn't start saving "officially" for retirement until I became eligible for a 403(b) plan during my first teaching job after grad school, at the ripe old age of 30. I retired 33 years later. My wife, also a college professor, had a similar ca...
by marcopolo
Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Allowance [Giving allowance to child]
Replies: 28
Views: 2120

Re: Allowance [Giving allowance to child]

A while back, there was a thread on using UTMA accounts for kid's savings. As a part of that I described how we handled allowances for our kids. Not necessarily recommending it for anyone, but it has worked out very well for us: Can't speak for others, but here is why we did use them (UTMA). Had not...
by marcopolo
Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pre 65 Retirees - Healthcare
Replies: 21
Views: 1992

Re: Pre 65 Retirees - Healthcare

What is the ballpark Healthcare premium expenses (for 2) until Medicare kicks in? The projected retirement income calculator at work shows in excess of $2000 per month as healthcare premium and that seems really high . How do other bogleheads handle this? Thanks It varies quite bit by state, and ev...
by marcopolo
Sun Jun 10, 2018 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retire at 55, what's the magic number
Replies: 104
Views: 12684

Re: Retire at 55, what's the magic number

The problem: Access to healthcare with guaranteed coverage for preexisting conditions. Without that I kiss early retirement goodbye. This is what I kept saying but I have come to believe that there will be no certainty in regards to healthcare for at least the next decade (likely longer). I honestl...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 09, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17778

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

longinvest wrote:
Sat Jun 09, 2018 4:29 pm
Marcopolo,
marcopolo wrote:
Sat Jun 09, 2018 3:19 pm
I played around with the spreadsheet a little bit. A question comes to mind.
Did my answers help?
Yes. Our messages must have just missed each other. "Ships passing in the night" problem of communications.
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 09, 2018 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17778

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Side question: Do you have a better WAG to suggest? Thanks for the explanation. I don't really have a better guess for a long term growth trend. Although, I have to admit, I am not sure i fully understand your distinction between Growth Trend and assumed returns. I know there have been studies show...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 09, 2018 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17778

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Having said that, I just entered (early) retirement recently, and while I have not formally adopted a VPW plan, I think my planned approach will actually end up being effectively close to what VPW would achieve. Start at 50/50 AA. Be flexible with withdrawals (our budget includes more than 50% disc...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 09, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17778

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

If VPW is giving you withdrawal amounts that are "too low" should the stock market drop 50%, then you probably don't have enough money to retire yet. Hmm. Is that really true? Isn't the whole idea of the various SWR studies an attempt to smooth out withdrawals so that you can have higher withdrawal...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 09, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17778

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

I have no pension Soc Sec is 18 years away SPIA are not very effective at age 52, especially COLA ones. All I have is my portfolio. Even if i set a portion of it aside in TIPS to provide steady income until SS, it is still a part of my portfolio. While I fully expect to be flexible with my spending...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 09, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17778

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

OK. Let's stop with unicorns and discuss real people. In real life, retirees have non-portfolio income (Social Security, pension) or, if they don't, they can buy some; it's called an inflation-indexed Single Premium Immediate Annuity (inflation-indexed SPIA). I am no unicorn, but: I have no pension...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17778

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

VPW is best applied on a balanced portfolio This is also true of a SWR. Not sure why you keep fixating on the 100% stock case. What happened in the 2000 scenario when both SWR and VPW used the same 30/70 AA? By the way, why did the initial WR jump to 5.8% in this run compared to 4.4% before? I am n...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 09, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17778

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Imagine a person retiring at the beginning of January 2000 at age 65 with a $1,000,000 portfolio. Having backtested SWR extensively with FireCalc and concluded that 100% stocks is the best for portfolio survival, and having heard Warren Buffet say that bonds are much riskier than stocks (reinforcin...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 09, 2018 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17778

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

I agree that is a likely common scenario, and it is very fortunate situation to be in. Where i tend to disagree is when some of those people who may have arrived at this situation as you describe then make the assertion that the (much) lower WR are really required because "XYZ" risk looming on the ...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17778

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

I don't have evidence to back this, but I don't get the sense that most people who have WRs significantly below 4 are grinding out extra decades in painful jobs solely for the sake of the small percentages. I'm sure there are some. I think it's more common that people just arrive there after severa...
by marcopolo
Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Overfunding 529
Replies: 25
Views: 2364

Re: Overfunding 529

- if you are in a very high tax bracket now, and will be in a lower tax bracket later, the penalty plus taxation of earnings may not be worse than a taxable account. Admittedly it is hard to think of many situations where the numbers work out well. This is an interesting point that I never consider...
by marcopolo
Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Overfunding 529
Replies: 25
Views: 2364

Re: Overfunding 529

Yes, it doesn’t work quite as well as outlined above because of the gift tax issue, though the annual gift tax exemption does increase with inflation. Assuming the 529 five year election option remains, one could (for example), take the $225k left in Child A’s 529 and transfer $75k to each of three...
by marcopolo
Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Overfunding 529
Replies: 25
Views: 2364

Re: Overfunding 529

4. 15ish years after graduation, grandchild is born. Child's 529 has grown to ~$400K. Transfer funds from kids 529 to grandkid's plan. I'm wondering if gift taxes could be an issue with this scheme, if transferring more than $15k per year from one beneficiary to another. I've read the IRS instructi...
by marcopolo
Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend Buffer
Replies: 24
Views: 2226

Re: Dividend Buffer

There are a number of opinions as to whether living on dividends/interest is a good idea or not. For those that are comfortable with living on dividends/interest, what is a margin of safety between annual expenses and annual dividends/interest that you are comfortable with? For instance double the ...
by marcopolo
Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do average kids from upper middle class families get any free college money (Scholarships / non-repayable grants etc)
Replies: 266
Views: 17251

Re: Do average kids from upper middle class families get any free college money (Scholarships / non-repayable grants etc

shawndoggy wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:46 pm
upper middle class parent with a couple of million NW
That seems like an oxymoron. See Livesoft's post above.
by marcopolo
Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What If Your Plan Fails?
Replies: 46
Views: 3989

Re: Larry Swedroe: What If Your Plan Fails?

You do realize the SWR studies included a LOT of bad things that have happened (great depression, WWII, Stagflation, looks like dot-com bust will work out as well). Of course, things could be worse in the future. But, it is not clear to me that some of the solutions, like uncorrelated assets are lik...
by marcopolo
Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 433
Views: 50052

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 3:26 pm

California is the only one that can claim beautiful weather to go with it's high cost of living, but again, if you're not working, you can get the same weather moving 20-80 miles up/down the coast, and save a ton of money.
Hawaii
by marcopolo
Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17778

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Make no plans, when you get there see what you have, then you can decide what you will actually withdraw and what you'll actually spend. When you get where? I like this approach, but then it just shifts the challenge to defining a time/event target, rather than a dollar/multiple target. I think you...
by marcopolo
Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 433
Views: 50052

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

It seems like no one is ever really content with what they have - as soon as they reach a huge amount of net worth for retirement, I see people moving the goalpost further out. +10,000,000 It is very rare to hear from somebody who says "we have enough". And even when they do say "we have enough", t...
by marcopolo
Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pending Layoff / Can I retire?
Replies: 31
Views: 4456

Re: Pending Layoff / Can I retire?

whodidntante wrote:
Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:43 pm
If you have a net worth of 4.9 million, and you're told you cannot retire, you might be a Bogleneck. :happy
+1

This does not seem like a financial/numbers issue, but rather a lifestyle/career/family dynamics issue.
Of course you can afford to retire and pursue Startups
by marcopolo
Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 433
Views: 50052

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

It seems like no one is ever really content with what they have - as soon as they reach a huge amount of net worth for retirement, I see people moving the goalpost further out. Not everyone. We had set a target date based on life events (youngest child graduating HS, so we could move without disrup...
by marcopolo
Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17778

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Make no plans, when you get there see what you have, then you can decide what you will actually withdraw and what you'll actually spend. When you get where? I like this approach, but then it just shifts the challenge to defining a time/event target, rather than a dollar/multiple target. I think you...
by marcopolo
Tue Jun 05, 2018 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17778

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Make no plans, when you get there see what you have, then you can decide what you will actually withdraw and what you'll actually spend. When you get where? I like this approach, but then it just shifts the challenge to defining a time/event target, rather than a dollar/multiple target. I think you...
by marcopolo
Tue Jun 05, 2018 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Two Articles On Reinsurance
Replies: 41
Views: 3221

Re: Larry Swedroe: Two Articles On Reinsurance

Random Walker, I understand your point about uncorrelated asset classes. I am also willing to accept that some of these uncorrelated assets will under perform, maybe for long periods of time. Here is where i have concerns about some of these more esoteric (at least to me) assets classes being recom...
by marcopolo
Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Two Articles On Reinsurance
Replies: 41
Views: 3221

Re: Larry Swedroe: Two Articles On Reinsurance

Random Walker, I understand your point about uncorrelated asset classes. I am also willing to accept that some of these uncorrelated assets will under perform, maybe for long periods of time. Here is where i have concerns about some of these more esoteric (at least to me) assets classes being recom...