Search found 373 matches

by marcopolo
Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 309
Views: 26421

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Wow. We are now worried that a 2% withdrawal rate might be risky?!? I suspect the odds are higher that one would be killed in a car accident driving back and forth to work in the years it takes to go from 40x to 50x than the odds that 40x would cause someone to run out of money in their lifetime. I...
by marcopolo
Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 309
Views: 26421

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

My takeaway from it all is that someone will probably be okay for 60 years of retirement life if they: 1) Retire with a portfolio that has an initial balance equal to at least 50 times their annual expenses; and 2) Maintain a 50/50 allocation. Wow. We are now worried that a 2% withdrawal rate might...
by marcopolo
Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique
Replies: 99
Views: 7896

Re: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique

You seems to be moving the goal posts a bit, and missing some critical components. The $26k gap was your number. Now we are financing a $36k gap. Maybe you assumed different down payment sizes? At 21 years out they will collect social security. That may at least partially close the gap, if not comp...
by marcopolo
Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique
Replies: 99
Views: 7896

Re: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique

If any of you may need medical care beyond what is available on Oahu as my family and I have for nearly the past two decades, medical travel can be an unexpected significant added expense. Sorry to hear about that. This is definitely a concern of mine as we plan our move to Hawaii. Would these cost...
by marcopolo
Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone pondering moving to a cheaper place and downsizing?
Replies: 52
Views: 3257

Re: Anyone pondering moving to a cheaper place and downsizing?

I think it is a very good idea, if there is a lower cost area in which you want to spend the rest of your life, or at least a good chunk of it. Against all of my frugal instincts, we are doing the exact opposite. We are planning to move to an area with a significantly higher cost of living in retire...
by marcopolo
Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique
Replies: 99
Views: 7896

Re: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique

We'd also like to be closer to Hilo since that area is more family-friendly for things like homeschool groups, kid activities, growing food, farmers markets, potential employment for my wife at the university, etc... How would you recommend we do the Roth Ladder? We have a sizeable amount in TSP, a...
by marcopolo
Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique
Replies: 99
Views: 7896

Re: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique

Ok. Lets start with that number. He needs to fill a gap of $26k/year, from a $1.2M portfolio. That is a 2.17% withdrawal rate. In what world is that "basically cover - but just"? Property taxes on an $800k home in Hawaii county is more like $4000. If the OP qualifies as a disabled veteran (possible...
by marcopolo
Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique
Replies: 99
Views: 7896

Re: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique

At least three of us actually presented real numbers above and separately came up with pretty much the same number - a $26k/year gap in his spending that his retirement assets will basically cover - but just. They are 49 and 41 and there is no stated plan in place for how they intend to cover that ...
by marcopolo
Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique
Replies: 99
Views: 7896

Re: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique

If he needs that 3% withdrawal to pay the bills, what happens in a prolonged (5 year) downturn? You lost me here. Don't people routinely retire with 3% withdrawal rates. Surviving a 5 year downturn with a 3% withdrawal rate should not be that challenging. Especially with a huge guaranteed floor of ...
by marcopolo
Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique
Replies: 99
Views: 7896

Re: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique

Agree with marcpolo -- you are in a far better position than most are suggesting. Putting 20% down on an $800k house, you're left with ~$1M. Withdrawing ~3% per year and with your $14k surplus, your total annual housing costs would need to be less than $44k. Should be doable, though you may have to...
by marcopolo
Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique
Replies: 99
Views: 7896

Re: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique

Agree with marcpolo -- you are in a far better position than most are suggesting. Putting 20% down on an $800k house, you're left with ~$1M. Withdrawing ~3% per year and with your $14k surplus, your total annual housing costs would need to be less than $44k. Should be doable, though you may have to...
by marcopolo
Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique
Replies: 99
Views: 7896

Re: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique

Hawaii is such a high cost of living area. I won't even consider moving there for long term retirement unless I have a net worth north of 4 millions, personally. I agree, but that is essentially what the OP has. He has $1160K in his portfolio AND a $84k/year COLA pension. For long retirements and a...
by marcopolo
Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique
Replies: 99
Views: 7896

Re: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique

There seems to be a lot of hyperbole here. Someone mentioned high property taxes. Hawaii has some of the lowest property tax rates in the country. There is a homeowner exemption, and I believe, disabled veterans (maybe the OP qualifies), pay very little property taxes. The $745/sq ft. build number s...
by marcopolo
Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stats on When People Take Social Security
Replies: 115
Views: 7118

Re: Stats on When People Take Social Security

....the only way to pay all SS benefits is to increase the national debt. I pretty much agree with just about everything you said, with the possible exception of the statement quoted above. My understanding is that the amount owed to the SS trust fund is already included in the current debt figure....
by marcopolo
Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stats on When People Take Social Security
Replies: 115
Views: 7118

Re: Stats on When People Take Social Security

....the only way to pay all SS benefits is to increase the national debt. I pretty much agree with just about everything you said, with the possible exception of the statement quoted above. My understanding is that the amount owed to the SS trust fund is already included in the current debt figure....
by marcopolo
Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stats on When People Take Social Security
Replies: 115
Views: 7118

Re: Stats on When People Take Social Security

No, I’m pretty sure that is not correct. SS has been cash flow negative since 2010. What I think you are confusing is cash flow vs “funds” available in the SS Trust Fund. There is no cash in that trust fund, and there never has been. I think strictly speaking there is "no cash" in the trust fund. B...
by marcopolo
Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it time for me to "call in rich"?
Replies: 75
Views: 12028

Re: Is it time for me to "call in rich"?

However, so you've worked your entire career to reach your highest earning potential just to chuck it all? Maybe a project change, job change, or extended vacation would make things interesting enough again to add a few more 200k years to the savings pot. To what end? Especially since he does not h...
by marcopolo
Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR and inflation - newbie question
Replies: 4
Views: 271

Re: SWR and inflation - newbie question

Hi everyone, I am planning early retirement and have read many posts/article about SWR (I'll be using 4% for my purpose). What I seem unable to figure out is how to account for inflation. My basic understanding is that upon retiring, SWR theory states that one will withdraw 4% (more or less dependi...
by marcopolo
Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it time for me to "call in rich"?
Replies: 75
Views: 12028

Re: Is it time for me to "call in rich"?

OP, this is my back-of-the-envelope calculations. I’m going to be conservative and say you need $95K a year or $110K before taxes. If you retire now, follow these numbers: Between 2018 and 2023 when your wife retires, you would need ($110K -$55K wife’s income) x 5 years = $275K Between 2023 and 203...
by marcopolo
Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it time for me to "call in rich"?
Replies: 75
Views: 12028

Re: Is it time for me to "call in rich"?

Congratulations! I think you are in very good shape financially. Although, I think it might still be early in the day - I have not seen any of the "even 1% withdrawal rate is too risky" crowd respond yet. But, I completely understand your concerns. My wife and i are in a very similar situation in bo...
by marcopolo
Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 309
Views: 26421

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Thanks OP and fellow Bogleheads for a thread that I am finding very helpful in balancing the risks of running out of money Vs running out of healthy retirement years. I dipped one toe into the retirement pool about 12 months ago and went part time at 56 years old. I think I am ready to put an entir...
by marcopolo
Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 309
Views: 26421

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Well said. I think in all of our planning of various strategies, this point does not get enough attention. There is no 100% safe withdrawal rate going forward. You have to balance various risks, including the risk of running out of time. Against what intuition would suggest, the consequences of run...
by marcopolo
Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 309
Views: 26421

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Time is also a limited resource. No one wants to risk running out of money, but it sure seems a lot of people on these boards are willing to risk running out of time. Well said. I think in all of our planning of various strategies, this point does not get enough attention. There is no 100% safe wit...
by marcopolo
Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Retirement Math - What I am not thinking of?
Replies: 26
Views: 4079

Re: Early Retirement Math - What I am not thinking of?

Financial Situation: - Family: Me - 37, Wife - 36, Kid - 14 months - Net Worth: $5.4M - Allocation: 85% Stocks, 10% Bonds, 5% - cash + real estate - Portfolio: VFWAX, VBTLX, VTSAX, VGWAX as per the allocation above. 6% of net worth invested in Indian mutual funds because that's where we live now, a...
by marcopolo
Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 17613

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

I wouldn't get too hung up on trying to discount CAPE. That's just one example of many that ought be be telling folks that this market is stretched. Historically, when CAPE was above 20, the next 10 year's returns varied between -1.38% and 12.07%, as shown in the table below, but most of the return...
by marcopolo
Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 86
Views: 6366

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

In all of the ten year periods from 1900-2012, there were 42 where annual returns were 10% or higher. In 93% of those periods, the starting CAPE was below 20. Only 3 of those 42 year periods began with CAPE above 20 and ended with 10% or higher annual returns. I'd say that's pretty darned predictiv...
by marcopolo
Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New tax plan-62 year old convert to Roth before RMD?
Replies: 31
Views: 2439

Re: New tax plan-62 year old convert to Roth before RMD?

As far as I know, I-ORP does not model effects like the IRMAA, but does model ACA items. I can't imagine any practical way for software to model ACA items. The Premium Tax Credit (PTC) for a household of a given size and age composition with a specified MAGI can vary wildly from state to state (and...
by marcopolo
Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 17613

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

It is not so much the various arguments about CAPE, changes to GAAP earnings, long time drift upwards, etc. that make me think we may be nearing the top, but it is the fact that i am starting to notice more posts like this one: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=237289#p3708720 . W...
by marcopolo
Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New tax plan-62 year old convert to Roth before RMD?
Replies: 31
Views: 2439

Re: New tax plan-62 year old convert to Roth before RMD?

Just run I-ORP to get the best available calculation. (I-ORP has already adjusted for the new tax law.) Should be aware that I-ORP does not model the increase in tax rates 10 years out as mandated by current law. The developer is aware, but I haven't seen anything that indicates it has been incorpo...
by marcopolo
Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What strategy do you use to reduce sequence of returns risk in retirement?
Replies: 117
Views: 7234

Re: What strategy do you use to reduce sequence of returns risk in retirement?

. . . 3) Personally I like the idea of a rising glidepath -- enter retirement with a relatively conservative asset allocation (say 40/60 stock/bond), and consider increasing equity percentage later. This model is not universally accepted, but it would let me sleep better than any attempt to be more...
by marcopolo
Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 708
Views: 182716

Re: Share your net worth progression

I like this approach. Is that on a log scale? I am surprised it does not show more of an exponential growth pattern. No, not a log scale :D We have always had a larger bond allocation than most people, and have been putting 4 kids through college at full pay, two of them also in private HS at almos...
by marcopolo
Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 708
Views: 182716

Re: Share your net worth progression

This represents our progression over the past two decades or so. I've intentionally obscured the amounts. What is important is that patience and LBYM works. Progress was slow in the first decade. The funny bumps in the line are due to my wife's bonuses, which are a considerable part of her compensa...
by marcopolo
Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early Retirement Planning Advice
Replies: 43
Views: 4086

Re: Early Retirement Planning Advice

Simple rule of thumb- you will need at least80% of what you earn now, excluding SS to retire comfortably. SS should be taken at 62 and reinvested 60/40 equity index fund and total bond market index. You should not plan on completely retiring if you have to take withdrawals before age 65-69. All thr...
by marcopolo
Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally Bank 11 month [No-Penalty CD]
Replies: 382
Views: 30817

Re: Ally Bank 11 month [No-Penalty CD]

I transferred a number of CDs to the higher rate on Jan 1. I also opened an additional one with a zero balance on Jan 1. Just funded it this morning. It shows a rate of 1.6% (the current rate), not the 1.75% promotional rate that was in effect on Jan 1, when i opened the CD. I sent them an e-mail a...
by marcopolo
Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How safe are retirement accounts?
Replies: 19
Views: 1745

Re: How safe are retirement accounts?

In many countries that have instituted a VAT, it has largely replaced is in addition to the income tax. In this scenario, withdrawals from Roth IRAs (assuming they are "consumed)" would be taxed just like withdrawals from a Traditional IRA. Fixed it for you. Income taxes haven't gone away in Europe...
by marcopolo
Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How safe are retirement accounts?
Replies: 19
Views: 1745

Re: How safe are retirement accounts?

If any attempt is made to change Roth IRA tax rules, there will be massive revolt and litigation, as that would be punitive double taxation, since those are fully funded with post tax funds. Not sure how likely it is, but a consumption tax (like VAT that is widespread in many European countries) co...
by marcopolo
Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How safe are retirement accounts?
Replies: 19
Views: 1745

Re: How safe are retirement accounts?

If any attempt is made to change Roth IRA tax rules, there will be massive revolt and litigation, as that would be punitive double taxation, since those are fully funded with post tax funds. Not sure how likely it is, but a consumption tax (like VAT that is widespread in many European countries) co...
by marcopolo
Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally Bank 11 month [No-Penalty CD]
Replies: 382
Views: 30817

Re: Ally Bank 11 month [No-Penalty CD]

I think they could be more clear on their disclosure. Yes, you need to fund your CD within 10 days to get the rate they offered on the date the CD was opened with a zero balance. If the funding occurs after 10 days, you will get the going rate, and it may be higher or lower. Once a CD is funded, yo...
by marcopolo
Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Withdrawal Penalties (from CDs) still deductible under new tax law?
Replies: 3
Views: 275

Re: Early Withdrawal Penalties (from CDs) still deductible under new tax law?

That adjustment to income has not been changed. And it is a very logical adjustment to income because the 1099-INT you receive will include the gross amount of interest before the EWP. I wish they would change the 1099-INT reporting to net out the EWP. But that hasn't happened in decades. Thanks! a...
by marcopolo
Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Little riddle about the new year (2018)
Replies: 2
Views: 383

Re: Little riddle about the new year (2018)

siamond wrote:
Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:15 pm
Easy question for you math geeks... Why will 2018 be not once, but twice a prime time? :sharebeer
2018 = 2 * 1009.
1009 is a prime number.
by marcopolo
Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally Bank 11 month [No-Penalty CD]
Replies: 382
Views: 30817

Re: Ally Bank 11 month [No-Penalty CD]

Anyone know if there is a way to directly convert these to the higher rate (prior to maturity) without round tripping them through another account? I do not have a checking account at Ally, just a Savings. Having problems opening new checking due to credit freeze. I have 17 of these CDs at 1.5%. Ro...
by marcopolo
Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Withdrawal Penalties (from CDs) still deductible under new tax law?
Replies: 3
Views: 275

Early Withdrawal Penalties (from CDs) still deductible under new tax law?

Early withdrawal penalties (e.g., cashing in CDs to get better rates) used to be a non-itemized ("above the line") deduction (line 30 on 1040 form).
Any one know if that is still the case going forward? If not, that might change the calculus on chasing yields with longer term CDs.
by marcopolo
Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early Retirement Planning Advice
Replies: 43
Views: 4086

Re: Early Retirement Planning Advice

Let's put some numbers together for clarity and all numbers are in today dollars. Say you need $80K a year to live comfortably which is about $100K before taxes. You are 57 now and want to take social security benefits at 67 at which time you would get $30K a year. You would need: ● $100K x 10 = $1...
by marcopolo
Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early Retirement Planning Advice
Replies: 43
Views: 4086

Re: Early Retirement Planning Advice

Let's put some numbers together for clarity and all numbers are in today dollars. Say you need $80K a year to live comfortably which is about $100K before taxes. You are 57 now and want to take social security benefits at 67 at which time you would get $30K a year. You would need: ● $100K x 10 = $1...
by marcopolo
Sat Dec 30, 2017 8:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally Bank 11 month [No-Penalty CD]
Replies: 382
Views: 30817

Re: Ally Bank 11 month [No-Penalty CD]

No. ChexSystems lift was free. TransUnion charged $10. I have no idea why the difference, but I just ordered a temporary lift of my credit freeze at Equifax and TransUnion. They were both easily done, at no charge. The TransUnion lift was a specific lift on 2 accounts (mine & my spouse), and we wer...
by marcopolo
Sat Dec 30, 2017 7:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally Bank 11 month [No-Penalty CD]
Replies: 382
Views: 30817

Re: Ally Bank 11 month [No-Penalty CD]

This may help others in similar situation. Was not able to open checking account due to credit freeze, got message that someone would call in 3-5 days. They called today, turns out you have to lift freeze on BOTH ChexSystems AND TransUnion. They said to call back after i did that. So i lifted freez...
by marcopolo
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally Bank 11 month [No-Penalty CD]
Replies: 382
Views: 30817

Re: Ally Bank 11 month [No-Penalty CD]

This may help others in similar situation. Was not able to open checking account due to credit freeze, got message that someone would call in 3-5 days. They called today, turns out you have to lift freeze on BOTH ChexSystems AND TransUnion. They said to call back after i did that. So i lifted freeze...
by marcopolo
Fri Dec 29, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will PE ratios decrease due to lower taxes?
Replies: 20
Views: 2247

Re: Will PE ratios decrease due to lower taxes?

Several large multi-national corporations have already announced that they will take some short term hits (reduced earnings) due to taxes owed from repatriating offshore profits at the new lower rate. This might actually raise PEs in the near term.
by marcopolo
Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally Bank 11 month [No-Penalty CD]
Replies: 382
Views: 30817

Re: Ally Bank 11 month [No-Penalty CD]

Anyone know if there is a way to directly convert these to the higher rate (prior to maturity) without round tripping them through another account? I do not have a checking account at Ally, just a Savings. Having problems opening new checking due to credit freeze. I have 17 of these CDs at 1.5%. Ro...
by marcopolo
Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Miata as second car
Replies: 94
Views: 3787

Re: Miata as second car

I’d pay off a loan at 6.25% before I dropped money on a car I didn’t need. I also wouldn’t freak out about paying cash for the car, but I sure wouldn’t borrow at 6.25%. Our car loan was 2.25%. We’ve never paid 6.25% for car, that’s second lien. My Jeep was 1.79. Only reason we took 6.25% on second ...