Search found 857 matches

by marcopolo
Thu Jul 19, 2018 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 125
Views: 7017

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

Remember, they are only comfortable with the 3% because they know they have discretionary items they can cut back on if needed. I'm not convinced that most of them are actually cognizant of this. HomerJ reminds people all the time that 'failure of the 4% rule' does not mean running out of money as ...
by marcopolo
Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Backdoor Roth - Have Existing tIRA - Now what?
Replies: 4
Views: 303

Re: Backdoor Roth - Have Existing tIRA - Now what?

Hi folks, I have always rolled over previous employer's 401k/Roth 401k money into tIRA and Roth IRAs so I could better manage the funds I am invested in, I didn't know the pro-rata rule of Roth conversions :oops: Because of that, I have a sizable chunk of my retirement money and my wife's in tIRAs ...
by marcopolo
Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 125
Views: 7017

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

Disaggregating essential and discretionary spending may actually help retirees to take on a less conservative approach to their cumulative withdrawals. I believe it's a fairly safe assumption to say that retirees are generally more willing to put their discretionary spending at risk than their esse...
by marcopolo
Wed Jul 18, 2018 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early retirement
Replies: 145
Views: 12884

Re: Early retirement

Perhaps we could benefit from a more objective definition. At least in the US, the government conveniently provides an objective measure that could be used. If you are eligible to contribute to an IRA of any type, then perhaps you are not retired? I don't know if that will do it. My wife had NQ sto...
by marcopolo
Wed Jul 18, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prime Harvesting with a cash buffer?
Replies: 3
Views: 477

Re: Prime Harvesting with a cash buffer?

I've read McClung's book, and Prime Harvesting has a lot of appeal. I'm considering it when I pull the trigger I'm hoping that will be soon, when I'm 63 and DW 62. We plan to defer SS to 70 and know we'll need to draw heavily from our portfolio before Medicare and the end of our modest mortgage (ar...
by marcopolo
Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early retirement
Replies: 145
Views: 12884

Re: Early retirement

We seem to have this disagreement about what "retired" means pretty regularly. It is generally a subjective thing to many people. I don't personally care what people want to call themselves. But, for the purposes of conversations, it does help to have common meaning for words. Perhaps we could benef...
by marcopolo
Tue Jul 17, 2018 5:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements
Replies: 40
Views: 2229

Re: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements

marcopolo, There have been several excellent points made in this thread, and I'm going to try to bring them together to provide an answer to your question and, more importantly, an explanation for it. This is a long post, but I hope it will be an instructive one for you and others who aren't intima...
by marcopolo
Tue Jul 17, 2018 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements
Replies: 40
Views: 2229

Re: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements

Sequence of return risk for retirees has several elements. The downward loss, the time to recover, loss of human capital's ability to buy (e.g. contributions/company matches), less income (usually), withdrawals from a shrinking portfolio, and years to Medicare and Social Security. I was forced to r...
by marcopolo
Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements
Replies: 40
Views: 2229

Re: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements

If I understand this correctly, it is using a 30 year retirement window to compute SWR. Then seeing how that SWR is correlated (across different 30 year spans) to the portfolio performance at different durations. But, the SWR is always based on a 30 year retirement in this analysis. What I was aski...
by marcopolo
Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 125
Views: 7017

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

Theory is that retirees overall spending tends to decline with age. How much of this is because they spent much of their modest nest eggs early on, unwisely perhaps, and now don't really have enough remaining to spend more? On the other hand, we have people with larger portfolios who simply lose in...
by marcopolo
Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements
Replies: 40
Views: 2229

Re: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements

If I am not mistaken, even if you could indeed do that analysis, almost each and every variable which plays any role in it will only have a probabilistic value with a incredibly large range in its variation. Frankly, I am sure "the nerd in you" already knows that but something else inside you is lo...
by marcopolo
Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough
Replies: 91
Views: 10762

Re: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough

We took a similar trajectory. Saved very little in my 20s. Fortunately, did not have student loans to repay, but didn't finish graduate school, and really start career, until age 32. Single income, with SAHM after that. The biggest thing we did was to not ramp up our lifestyle while our income grew...
by marcopolo
Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements
Replies: 40
Views: 2229

Re: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements

You can eliminate SRR by withdrawing a fixed constant percentage from your portfolio. You just have to be able to live on less money in bad years. I don't think that really eliminates SRR, it just changes the risk from running out of money to not having enough to pay for your needs/wants, maybe for...
by marcopolo
Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements
Replies: 40
Views: 2229

Re: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements

Yeah, I do now recall having seen this. Given ERN's focus on long retirements (50 and 60 years in many of the articles), I am surprised this analysis only looked at the 30-year retirement case. Maybe things don't change much for the longer retirement case? Yes I was surprised ERN didn't do the 60 y...
by marcopolo
Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements
Replies: 40
Views: 2229

Re: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements

What I was asking about is a similar analysis but computing SWR for a longer duration retirement, then see if the peak of the correlation shift to the right I that scenario. I personally don't see Kitces' analysis approach as being that informative as it seems to obfuscate the real takeaway with th...
by marcopolo
Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements
Replies: 40
Views: 2229

Re: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements

What I was asking about is a similar analysis but computing SWR for a longer duration retirement, then see if the peak of the correlation shift to the right I that scenario. I personally don't see Kitces' analysis approach as being that informative as it seems to obfuscate the real takeaway with th...
by marcopolo
Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements
Replies: 40
Views: 2229

Re: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements

So maybe the solution is to delay retirement for 10 more years. Maybe the risk of “retiring now” (whenever “now” is) is too great. Too late :sharebeer "Now" was about 6 months ago. But, as "Homer J" often points out, "failure" does not mean being destitute. It likely means, cutting back from 3-5 va...
by marcopolo
Mon Jul 16, 2018 7:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements
Replies: 40
Views: 2229

Re: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements

I think the same 10 years applies. Michael Kitces: Understanding Sequence Of Return Risk – Safe Withdrawal Rates, Bear Market Crashes, And Bad Decades Apparently, the highest correlation between safe withdrawal rates and real returns is 9-10 years into retirement. It's not a major drawdown that's s...
by marcopolo
Mon Jul 16, 2018 7:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements
Replies: 40
Views: 2229

Re: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements

I think the same 10 years applies. Michael Kitces: Understanding Sequence Of Return Risk – Safe Withdrawal Rates, Bear Market Crashes, And Bad Decades Apparently, the highest correlation between safe withdrawal rates and real returns is 9-10 years into retirement. It's not a major drawdown that's s...
by marcopolo
Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough
Replies: 91
Views: 10762

Re: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough

Isn't that balanced out by the general tendency to earn more dollars as you age, up to a point? Somewhat...but it’s occupation dependent. I hear some programmers max out at age 50, many businesses take off very slow and could boom later. So, that curve can take various forms - but it is true, in ge...
by marcopolo
Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough
Replies: 91
Views: 10762

Re: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough

A constant percentage savings, is as non-sensical as it gets for me. A value of a dollar varies through a person’s lifecycle. To me, it’s all about a ‘pseudo life cycle financial planning’. Saving more when that value of a dollar is less is the only way for me. I’ll be saving more than 50% of my ea...
by marcopolo
Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements
Replies: 40
Views: 2229

Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements

Have read in numerous posts/articles that poor Sequence of Return (SOR) risk is really impactful during the first 10 years of retirement, meaning if you make it through the first decade without a major draw down, your probability of portfolio failure is quite low. I assume this 10 year number is bas...
by marcopolo
Sat Jul 14, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early retirement
Replies: 145
Views: 12884

Re: Early retirement

I believe that part of the issue is because many people, including a lot of Bogleheads, view healthcare as a qualitatively different expense than all others. No one ever asks "You're planning on retiring early? What will you do about groceries, your utility bill, and clothing?" While healthcare exp...
by marcopolo
Sat Jul 14, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early retirement
Replies: 145
Views: 12884

Re: Early retirement

Spouse is trying to spend more so I may work more and compete with others and own more than others in her circle(and she can post more pictures on social media) - apparently that is success to her. I feel for you. This is a systemic problem that grew with social media. Good luck overcoming that one...
by marcopolo
Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you trade experiences in your youth for early retirement
Replies: 81
Views: 5147

Re: Would you trade experiences in your youth for early retirement

Very interesting question. I am not sure I would make too many major changes if had a chance to go back and do it again. The things we spent on, and our priorities changed through various stages of life. In my 20s, I spent pretty much everything I made, took extended time off to travel domestically ...
by marcopolo
Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question for pre-ACA Early Retirees and pre-ACA solo folks
Replies: 33
Views: 1860

Re: Question for pre-ACA Early Retirees and pre-ACA solo folks

I think you may have mis-understood my comments. I think there is tremendous value in understanding how people who have tread this path before have dealt with it, as that will provide possible solutions that can be adapted as necessary to the sutuation going forward. I was simply saying that the fu...
by marcopolo
Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question for pre-ACA Early Retirees and pre-ACA solo folks
Replies: 33
Views: 1860

Re: Question for pre-ACA Early Retirees and pre-ACA solo folks

This is an interesting discussion as a recent early retiree. With 13+ years to Medicare age, ongoing access to health insurance is probably the biggest risk to my retirement. Having said that, I am not sure how much the pre-ACA world will be applicable to the future. There are like to be a lot of c...
by marcopolo
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question for pre-ACA Early Retirees and pre-ACA solo folks
Replies: 33
Views: 1860

Re: Question for pre-ACA Early Retirees and pre-ACA solo folks

This is an interesting discussion as a recent early retiree. With 13+ years to Medicare age, ongoing access to health insurance is probably the biggest risk to my retirement. Having said that, I am not sure how much the pre-ACA world will be applicable to the future. There are like to be a lot of ch...
by marcopolo
Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to plan for health insurance at a young age?
Replies: 75
Views: 2639

Re: How to plan for health insurance at a young age?

It's unfortunate that it's become a bit of a hot button topic on the forum lately. They can be discussed without encroaching on politics or religion, but even the suggestion that someone just look into them really seems to grate on some people. This is despite the fact that PBS reported back in Jan...
by marcopolo
Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to plan for health insurance at a young age?
Replies: 75
Views: 2639

Re: How to plan for health insurance at a young age?

I am all for open, honest discussions. These ministries seem to be put forth when people ask about health insurance. They are not health insurance, that would a good place to start the discussion. OK, let's have a discussion. Why are they not health insurance? What is your definition of health insu...
by marcopolo
Thu Jul 12, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to plan for health insurance at a young age?
Replies: 75
Views: 2639

Re: How to plan for health insurance at a young age?

I would suggest that we stay from discussing "Health Insurance Ministries" -- pro or con. It is hard to discuss that with any level of details/facts without touching on Politics *and* Religion. Even one of those topics will necessarily mean the end of the thread. It's unfortunate that it's become a...
by marcopolo
Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to plan for health insurance at a young age?
Replies: 75
Views: 2639

Re: How to plan for health insurance at a young age?

I would suggest that we stay from discussing "Health Insurance Ministries" -- pro or con. It is hard to discuss that with any level of details/facts without touching on Politics *and* Religion. Even one of those topics will necessarily mean the end of the thread. It's unfortunate that it's become a...
by marcopolo
Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What I spent in 6 months on medicare
Replies: 126
Views: 8689

Re: What I spent in 6 months on medicare

For me saving a few hundred a month is not important. And when/if something horrible happens, like cancer, I am heading off to Sloan Kettering and not where the plan allows. Oncologists around the country are qualified to administer the protocols developed at Sloan Kettering and M.D. Anderson. Unle...
by marcopolo
Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Health Insurance for Couple Early Retirement
Replies: 29
Views: 2328

Re: Health Insurance for Couple Early Retirement

I have been reading which income amounts go into the MAGI which determines your eligibility for a subsidy. Since capital gains and such count toward it I was at a loss as to how he reduce his income to qualify. Both of us have inherited IRAs from our parents that require distributions. These distri...
by marcopolo
Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Destination - are you happy with your choice?
Replies: 127
Views: 15171

Re: Retirement Destination - are you happy with your choice?

One of the things I hadn't considered is where my daughter will end up in her future and if she will move multiple times. I don't think I want to chase her around the country or world trying to be with her. Access to a good airport is probably better for me/us. As we were choosing our retirement de...
by marcopolo
Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds
Replies: 50
Views: 3352

Re: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds

http://www.aaii.com/journal/article/diversifying-through-reinsurance-and-marketplace-lending-interval-funds Good article describing the diversification benefits to a portfolio of alternative lending and reinsurance. For those interested, Larry goes into more detail in his 2018 edition of Reducing T...
by marcopolo
Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Destination - are you happy with your choice?
Replies: 127
Views: 15171

Re: Retirement Destination - are you happy with your choice?

One of the things I hadn't considered is where my daughter will end up in her future and if she will move multiple times. I don't think I want to chase her around the country or world trying to be with her. Access to a good airport is probably better for me/us. As we were choosing our retirement de...
by marcopolo
Sun Jul 08, 2018 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11037

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

A husband's choice as to when he takes SS only directly impacts his wife if she is claiming spousal benefits, which would be 50% of the husband's benefit. Sometimes. In some cases, the husband's benefit is less than 50% of the wife's full benefit. His choice directly affects their family benefits. ...
by marcopolo
Sun Jul 08, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What I spent in 6 months on medicare
Replies: 126
Views: 8689

Re: What I spent in 6 months on medicare

In summary, for the 4 years, our total provider charges (not including prescriptions) was $828,465, while the discounted amount actually paid by Medicare and Medigap combined was $72,451. The combined Medicare/Medigap payments to providers were only 9% of the provider charges. This is a real-life e...
by marcopolo
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Destination - are you happy with your choice?
Replies: 127
Views: 15171

Re: Retirement Destination - are you happy with your choice?

I am struggling with a similar challenge and will follow this thread with avid interest. One aspect that is important to me is the political climate of the state, town, or neighborhood. Wondering if others are feeling this way? Sometimes I feel a bit trapped in an area Ithat largely aligns with my ...
by marcopolo
Sat Jul 07, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What I spent in 6 months on medicare
Replies: 126
Views: 8689

Re: What I spent in 6 months on medicare

In summary, for the 4 years, our total provider charges (not including prescriptions) was $828,465, while the discounted amount actually paid by Medicare and Medigap combined was $72,451. The combined Medicare/Medigap payments to providers were only 9% of the provider charges. This is a real-life e...
by marcopolo
Sat Jul 07, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do you guys do on the side?
Replies: 299
Views: 30090

Re: What do you guys do on the side?

Never had a side hustle. Always felt it way more important to concentrate 100% of my efforts on my day (real) job to drive improved performance, higher pay raises and quicker promotions. This allowed my wife to be a SAHM from the time our first daughter was born and me to early retire at 53 (three ...
by marcopolo
Sat Jul 07, 2018 8:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retirement location and things to consider
Replies: 12
Views: 1599

Re: Retirement location and things to consider

Hi BH friends, We are planning way ahead of retirement and seeking your advice. We are aiming to be FIRE in 7-10 years with $3 - $3.5 MM portfolio. Not counting our current primary residence. By then, mortgage payment will be done. We live in San Diego our whole life but would like to retire somewh...
by marcopolo
Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do normal people afford the Bay Area?
Replies: 48
Views: 5028

Re: How do normal people afford the Bay Area?

Also, while CA and the Bay Area in particular are no doubt unique and amazing places to live, the current property values seem inflated vs. historical norms. Even if I were able to afford the exhorbitant prices, I would be reluctant to buy in at current prices. This is a whole 'nother debate. I cre...
by marcopolo
Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5544

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

It seems like a good argument for a 50/50 portfolio over the long run. Maybe. But, i fear that looking at the data starting just before the meltdown periods may lead to the wrong conclusions. Not sure about the oil/stagflation shock of the 70s, but both the great depression and the tech bubble were...
by marcopolo
Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11037

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

Maybe it will be enough to offset the Medicare premium and out of pocket expenses being discussed on another thread. :? That's why I'm maxing out our family HSA and no longer withdrawing anything from it unless we absolutely have to. We're saving receipts for eligible expenses. We expect to have be...
by marcopolo
Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11037

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

Hello Wildthrill81 - sounds like you have most of this figured out for yourself. I guess some of this is the way we look at things, like taxes. If I am targeting replacement of a salary of $75-100K i am paying 7.4% in payroll tax even before income taxes - so my budgets atre already set for that nu...
by marcopolo
Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to "retire" in your 30's article
Replies: 110
Views: 14513

Re: How to "retire" in your 30's article

I am a big believer in every person finding the path that works for them. Marc seems to have found a path that makes him happy. I commend him for that, and wish him best of luck. A number of people have commented on their surprise that so many posts seems resentful. I guess some of them might be. I ...
by marcopolo
Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11037

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

So it's either 75% to everyone (even existing people) or something 100% to all people already on it, and 50% to all new retirees (which would make taking it at 62 for me even MORE imperative to get grandfathered in). I think it would be way worse than that if they tried to only hit new retirees. Wh...
by marcopolo
Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There will be a recession and market downturn
Replies: 58
Views: 3210

Re: There will be a recession and market downturn

Remember, it is a recession when your neighbor loses his job. When you lose your job, it’s called a depression. Except for those who are FI, then it just might be a blessing. Except most who are FIRE'd have family and friends that they care about, who might be vulnerable to forced unemployment. Jus...