Search found 2083 matches

by marcopolo
Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018
Replies: 101
Views: 5092

Re: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018

It seems you want to take credit for betting on SCV and also benefiting from growth of mid cap and large cap companies that used to be small cap at one time. Not my point at all. My argument has nothing at all to do with how the stocks performed but rather with how funds are categorized, since the ...
by marcopolo
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018
Replies: 101
Views: 5092

Re: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018

Survivorship bias would seem to help SCV. Tiny sample size continues to be a problem - almost by definition SCV is a tiny percentage of the market. Not in this case, I think. As I mentioned, the SCV funds that did well in the 1970s grew enough to be large cap funds today: that reclassification remo...
by marcopolo
Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire in 1 year at 53
Replies: 54
Views: 9094

Re: Can I retire in 1 year at 53

Once in a while I see comments on this forum where people accuse Bogleheads of being completely out of touch with reality. I usually think those people are being unfair. Then I read a thread like this, and I think maybe they have a point. The OP plans to have over 5.0M for retirement, another $600k...
by marcopolo
Wed Jun 19, 2019 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any Massachusetts people on ACA subsidy?
Replies: 6
Views: 487

Re: Any Massachusetts people on ACA subsidy?

Hi, first of all I hope the answers to this post are of interest to other people besides me! I live in MA and hope to retire at 62-ish. For the first partial year I will be on COBRA, but then I hope to take advantage of the ACA for a few years until I hit 65 (assuming laws don't change). My income ...
by marcopolo
Wed Jun 19, 2019 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire in 1 year at 53
Replies: 54
Views: 9094

Re: Can I retire in 1 year at 53

Once in a while I see comments on this forum where people accuse Bogleheads of being completely out of touch with reality. I usually think those people are being unfair. Then I read a thread like this, and I think maybe they have a point. The OP plans to have over 5.0M for retirement, another $600k ...
by marcopolo
Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV tilt advocates, please suggest a percentage for me to use in a backtest
Replies: 31
Views: 1757

Re: SCV tilt advocates, please suggest a percentage for me to use in a backtest

If you simply backtest, you'll probably rediscover that best is 100% SCV for maximizing return, or something like 60% SCV / 40% long term treasuries for tempering return with lower volatility. But hindsight is always 20 /20. Few of us expect the stock and bond markets to exactly repeat past results...
by marcopolo
Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can't contact VG & "Your account information is temporarily unavailable"
Replies: 25
Views: 953

Re: Can't contact VG & "Your account information is temporarily unavailable"

Maybe they are using their limited computing resources to calculate 2nd quarter distributions :beer
by marcopolo
Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard mobile check deposit
Replies: 33
Views: 3787

Re: Vanguard mobile check deposit

I find it hard to believe this conversation is happening in 2018/2019. I agree, but others are not necessarily better. Mobile check deposit mechanics at Fido works well and assists in taking the snap, but the posting only shows "check received" and the amount; no check image there. OTOH Bank of Ame...
by marcopolo
Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard mobile check deposit
Replies: 33
Views: 3787

Re: Vanguard mobile check deposit

I find it hard to believe this conversation is happening in 2018/2019.
by marcopolo
Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV tilt advocates, please suggest a percentage for me to use in a backtest
Replies: 31
Views: 1757

Re: SCV tilt advocates, please suggest a percentage for me to use in a backtest

Some might view such a strategy as giving one the opportunity to outperform TSM. But one doesn't have to plan on outperforming TSM. Besides that, even if you did outperform TSM, you don't know that the outperformance would be enough to justify reducing your stock exposure as much as you did. Let's ...
by marcopolo
Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV tilt advocates, please suggest a percentage for me to use in a backtest
Replies: 31
Views: 1757

Re: SCV tilt advocates, please suggest a percentage for me to use in a backtest

Well, that's the idea behind the Larry Portfolio. The problem is that the SCV premium needed for this to work is far from guaranteed. From 2004 until now, TSM and SCV have had nearly identical returns. If you weren't assuming that SCV would have higher returns, then you should be satisfied with thi...
by marcopolo
Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV tilt advocates, please suggest a percentage for me to use in a backtest
Replies: 31
Views: 1757

Re: SCV tilt advocates, please suggest a percentage for me to use in a backtest

I would think one would want to make a chart or a heat map across as wide a range as possible. One question, is it less complicated to not vary the bond allocation or is it important to explore the "Larry" portfolio of 100% of stocks in small caps but a large bond allocation? I think that is a diff...
by marcopolo
Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV tilt advocates, please suggest a percentage for me to use in a backtest
Replies: 31
Views: 1757

Re: SCV tilt advocates, please suggest a percentage for me to use in a backtest

I would think one would want to make a chart or a heat map across as wide a range as possible. One question, is it less complicated to not vary the bond allocation or is it important to explore the "Larry" portfolio of 100% of stocks in small caps but a large bond allocation? I think that is a diff...
by marcopolo
Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV tilt advocates, please suggest a percentage for me to use in a backtest
Replies: 31
Views: 1757

Re: SCV tilt advocates, please suggest a percentage for me to use in a backtest

I would think one would want to make a chart or a heat map across as wide a range as possible. One question, is it less complicated to not vary the bond allocation or is it important to explore the "Larry" portfolio of 100% of stocks in small caps but a large bond allocation? I think that is a diff...
by marcopolo
Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV tilt advocates, please suggest a percentage for me to use in a backtest
Replies: 31
Views: 1757

Re: SCV tilt advocates, please suggest a percentage for me to use in a backtest

I want to compare a portfolio of 60% large-cap blend stocks 40% intermediate-term investment-grade bonds to a comparable portfolio with a reasonable small-cap value tilt. X% large-cap blend stocks Y% small-cap value stocks Z% intermediate-term investment-grade bonds I want to set X to a "fair" valu...
by marcopolo
Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity as a one stop shop
Replies: 753
Views: 80786

Re: Fidelity as a one stop shop

While you can keep your CMA balance at $0 with a backup higher-earning money market account linked to your cash account, reading previous posts will underscore that this is not fool-proof and that you may have an occasional bounced check. This sounds like an urban legend. I have been using CMA for ...
by marcopolo
Mon Jun 17, 2019 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity as a one stop shop
Replies: 753
Views: 80786

Re: Fidelity as a one stop shop

While you can keep your CMA balance at $0 with a backup higher-earning money market account linked to your cash account, reading previous posts will underscore that this is not fool-proof and that you may have an occasional bounced check. This sounds like an urban legend. I have been using CMA for ...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 15, 2019 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retaining least appreciated shares for ACA?
Replies: 8
Views: 625

Re: Retaining least appreciated shares for ACA?

This is mostly hypothetical at this point, but perhaps a valid discussion for many of us. The ACA exchanges provide one more option for health coverage for those who have FIREd, but are not yet Medicare eligible. Hopefully we can discuss this without getting into an ethical or political debate, and...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 15, 2019 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retaining least appreciated shares for ACA?
Replies: 8
Views: 625

Re: Retaining least appreciated shares for ACA?

This is mostly hypothetical at this point, but perhaps a valid discussion for many of us. The ACA exchanges provide one more option for health coverage for those who have FIREd, but are not yet Medicare eligible. Hopefully we can discuss this without getting into an ethical or political debate, and...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 15, 2019 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7379

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

I sometimes feel like the uneducated dummy in these conversations. I have a PhD in pattern recognition and had a long, and relatively successful, career hunting for weak signals in noisy data. One of the things I learned along the way is that if you search hard enough for patterns in data, you will...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7379

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

I won’t be correcting course, I’ll be focusing on staying the course. So, if Larry decides to abandon say Alternative Lending like LENDX (maybe because it turns out that asset class becomes highly correlated with the market during times of crisis), like he did with CCFs (for other, possibly just as...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7379

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

It may be that the model and strategy are correct, and AQR got unlucky. That absolutely is true. It's also reasonable to wonder, when results are bad, that maybe, just maybe, their model has a flaw. I find the very strong faith in back-tested models that, so far, have failed going forward, very str...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7379

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

now we're getting somewhere. what distribution is assumed? power law? cauchy? do they just use one or do they somehow incorporate multiple? There is no assumption about distributions: least squares regression is completely agnostic about the distribution of underlying data. There ARE some other rel...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7379

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

Results are very important. Dave We may have finally found an area where you and Larry appear to disagree. Look at his recent posts about the dangers of "resulting". Not even close. There is a world of difference between looking at past data to develop an investment plan and subsequently confusing ...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 15, 2019 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7379

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

How come when we build these models based on PAST results, no one seems concerned about "resulting" as Larry calls it, but when we try to evaluate how well strategies built on those models perform using results after the models are built, all of a sudden, results are meaningless, it is only the str...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 15, 2019 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7379

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

Random Walker wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2019 8:29 am

Results are very important.
Dave
We may have finally found an area where you and Larry appear to disagree.
Look at his recent posts about the dangers of "resulting".
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 15, 2019 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7379

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

i apologize, but i see stuff like "0.41 market beta, 0.31 on size, 0.26 on value" and red flags pop up. the method and tools at your disposal are incapable of supporting such a conclusion. 0.41 market beta? not 0.42? not 0.40? i just can't buy it. i can't. The factor loadings you mention are simply...
by marcopolo
Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17642

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

I think you are missing the huge structural difference between the US & Japanese markets when you state that the results of Bogle's preference for the US securities were luck. The US had a history of over 120 years in capital markets versus less than 40 for Japan also the US has a larger cross sect...
by marcopolo
Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17642

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

I think you are missing the huge structural difference between the US & Japanese markets when you state that the results of Bogle's preference for the US securities were luck. The US had a history of over 120 years in capital markets versus less than 40 for Japan also the US has a larger cross sect...
by marcopolo
Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17642

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

Sorry Taylor, clearly LUCKY, you are making mistake of resulting. For a strategy to be right it should work EVERYWHERE you live--as I Noted Bogle would have been declared a fool if he had been unlucky and borne in Japan instead, though brilliant until 1990. Just lucky, not smart. Only fools judge t...
by marcopolo
Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index filter false market cap?
Replies: 13
Views: 671

Re: Index filter false market cap?

Yes for the SP500 no for the TSM. Tesla is not in the SP500. It is in the TSM. It is certainly one of the 500 largest American companies. SP500 is chosen by committee. Even theTSM funds do not hold EVERY stock in the market. Someone, or something (algorithm) is doing some filtering. I doubt either ...
by marcopolo
Fri Jun 07, 2019 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimating Inflation in Retirement
Replies: 35
Views: 2565

Re: Estimating Inflation in Retirement

Honestly, vineviz, if all you saw were those data points, and asked you to fit a curve to them by eye, would you draw that "smile" curve? Either of them? I seem to recall some statistical technique for finding the relationship of data points that doesn’t rely on fitting curves by eye. Possibly I st...
by marcopolo
Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17642

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

nedsaid, a problem with your comments is the mistake of thinking equity like means say 10% which is historical return, but no financial economist I know expects that going forward given valuations, more like 4-% real, so equity like would then be say 6%+, not 10%, which is history not expected. And...
by marcopolo
Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe is far from a passive investor and I am beginning to agree
Replies: 62
Views: 5833

Re: Swedroe is far from a passive investor and I am beginning to agree

In a recent article, Swedroe added to his list of "best behavioral finance books", a recent one: Daniel Crosby’s The Behavioral Investor https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2019/06/03/a-great-new-book-on-behavioral-investing-1 I also read the book and I highly recommend it. What caught my ...
by marcopolo
Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying half of my paycheck on health insurance?
Replies: 63
Views: 4461

Re: Paying half of my paycheck on health insurance?

Not strictly true... having access to an affordable employer plan makes you ineligible for a subsidy. "Affordable" means your share of the coverage is less than 9.56% of your household income. So, if the employer plan is obscenely expensive (as the OP originally asserted) then you can still get the...
by marcopolo
Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity expands commission-free ETF list to >500
Replies: 55
Views: 4561

Re: Fidelity expands commission-free ETF list to >500

Isn't that the whole point of factor investing, to exploit the small difference in expected performance between slightly different category of equities? If you don't expect small-cap emerging market to be different from large-cap emerging market, does that imply you don't believe in the "size" facto...
by marcopolo
Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity expands commission-free ETF list to >500
Replies: 55
Views: 4561

Re: Fidelity expands commission-free ETF list to >500

Perhaps you have missed the numerous threads where people have advocated the benefits of diversification through the use of ALT investments, even despite their higher costs. Or perhaps such threads aren't as numerous as one might suppose. The proportion of threads on this forum in which so-called "...
by marcopolo
Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity expands commission-free ETF list to >500
Replies: 55
Views: 4561

Re: Fidelity expands commission-free ETF list to >500

Perhaps you have missed the numerous threads where people have advocated the benefits of diversification through the use of ALT investments, even despite their higher costs. Or perhaps such threads aren't as numerous as one might suppose. The proportion of threads on this forum in which so-called "...
by marcopolo
Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity expands commission-free ETF list to >500
Replies: 55
Views: 4561

Re: Fidelity expands commission-free ETF list to >500

The companies being added on the list include the actively managed ETF crowd ... Janus, Franklin Templeton, Invesco, PIMCO, Legg Mason, American Century, and John Hancock. So Fidelity is rolling out the red carpet for high cost active ETFs and collecting product placement fees to help pay for CMA a...
by marcopolo
Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity expands commission-free ETF list to >500
Replies: 55
Views: 4561

Re: Fidelity expands commission-free ETF list to >500

The companies being added on the list include the actively managed ETF crowd ... Janus, Franklin Templeton, Invesco, PIMCO, Legg Mason, American Century, and John Hancock. So Fidelity is rolling out the red carpet for high cost active ETFs and collecting product placement fees to help pay for CMA a...
by marcopolo
Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire at 56?
Replies: 34
Views: 5997

Re: Can I retire at 56?

Bogleheads are a conservative bunch. I am not sure what it would take for people here to say "yes, you can retire early safely". I think it is mainly because there is no absolute safety, which is what many seem to be looking for. So, you have to think in terms of probabilities, and risk trade offs. ...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thinking in terms of amount at FIRE or total amount contributed?
Replies: 3
Views: 381

Re: Thinking in terms of amount at FIRE or total amount contributed?

I know that, for example, 1 million at FIRE is 1 million no matter how it got there, but i can't help thinking in terms of the total amount I have contributed to get to the 1 million. If for example, I hit my FIRE target at 1 million and retire, and the next day stocks plunge by 30%, I believe I wo...
by marcopolo
Fri May 31, 2019 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11012
Views: 1923113

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I retired from working today. I'll stop getting paid 9/1/19. So 3 more months of DCA. If the market goes below Dec 2018 lows I'l move money around. Otherwise I'll sit and hope for best. I don't know what else to do. Wish me luck Congratulations! And best of luck to you in whatever you choose to do ...
by marcopolo
Fri May 31, 2019 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11012
Views: 1923113

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

For those eagerly anticipating a big crash, don't hold your breath. I'm sitting on a big pile of cash which is pretty close to a guarantee that no big drops are coming. The investment gods don't like giving me stocks at bargain prices. :) At what level do you plan to deploy? Don't follow me. I'm al...
by marcopolo
Thu May 30, 2019 8:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should my wife and I cancel our Whole Life Insurance policies?
Replies: 31
Views: 2279

Re: Should my wife and I cancel our Whole Life Insurance policies?

Hopefully, a part of your lesson learned should be to fire your financial advisor.
by marcopolo
Thu May 30, 2019 6:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to preserve $10M+ in wealth owned by unsophisticated people?
Replies: 82
Views: 14511

Re: How to preserve $10M+ in wealth owned by unsophisticated people?

I am quite surprised at some of the responses giving advice on how the OP could convince his family to do certain things or structure the assets. I try to take OPs, in general, at face value. It does not seem implausible that the parents are unsophisticated with regard to equities. Taken at face va...
by marcopolo
Thu May 30, 2019 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to preserve $10M+ in wealth owned by unsophisticated people?
Replies: 82
Views: 14511

Re: How to preserve $10M+ in wealth owned by unsophisticated people?

You might want to seek your parents council. They are worth $10 mil. You managed to get to a $500k portfolio. Kinda underwhelming given all your education. With all due respect, you haven't really accomplished all that much financially. Good luck! Broken Man 1999 ^This. I am quite surprised at some...
by marcopolo
Thu May 30, 2019 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2% withdrawal rate
Replies: 182
Views: 12788

Re: 2% withdrawal rate

At a 20% gross savings rate and a 5% real return, it would take about 49 years to retire. At a 40% savings rate, it would take about 32 years (vs. the 22 years it would take to achieve 4% withdrawals). So with a high savings rate, it is doable, but the opportunity cost seems very high. Thanks for s...
by marcopolo
Thu May 30, 2019 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2% withdrawal rate
Replies: 182
Views: 12788

Re: 2% withdrawal rate

The biggest risk with 2% is never getting enough saved to actually retire. At a 20% gross savings rate and a 5% real return, it would take about 49 years to retire. At a 40% savings rate, it would take about 32 years (vs. the 22 years it would take to achieve 4% withdrawals). So with a high savings...
by marcopolo
Thu May 30, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11012
Views: 1923113

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Relief that the crash has already happened and we can now relax seems like a really odd reaction to a 5% drop from the peak. I don't think you quite understand what a crash really feels like. Well, sure, aside from entering the job market during the dot com crash, signing a mortgage in 2007 and the...