Search found 2915 matches

by marcopolo
Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Friendly States
Replies: 431
Views: 31743

Re: Retirement Friendly States

Hawaii has great beach and resort weather year round. Wonderful if you are visiting. Wonderful to live there as long as one is adaptable. Though it may be the 51 'st state, it is a bit different than the USA. However, living in Hawaii is interesting: Unique Island Culture and Hawaii-centric points ...
by marcopolo
Sun May 31, 2020 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ACA Healthcare moving during the year
Replies: 5
Views: 393

Re: ACA Healthcare moving during the year

Looks like we (Myself and Wife) may change our residence from NC to AZ over the summer Both states are ranked slightly under middle of the pack so I'm guessing I'm not looking at any great improvement in health care. I did a preliminary review of whats involved in migrating our ACA policy from NC t...
by marcopolo
Sat May 30, 2020 11:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Forget ACA subsidies and Max out Roth conversions early?
Replies: 46
Views: 2082

Re: Forget ACA subsidies and Max out Roth conversions early?

I have read many similar postings with many people on the fence as to whether or not to convert early (before 65) or starting at 65. I'm hoping you can assess my new plan. My plan has been ACA subsidies until 65. However, I now believe it's likely, with the recent trillions allocated by our gov't f...
by marcopolo
Sat May 30, 2020 9:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Simple jobs during FATFire?
Replies: 152
Views: 9666

Re: Simple jobs during FATFire?

To be honest I don't understand how 90+% of those who FIRE before 50 believe they are FI or can actually live the lifestyle to which they aspire. It just seems like most are headed for a hard landing later in life when there is little chance of recovery. In many ways it just seems like a different ...
by marcopolo
Sat May 30, 2020 5:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Forget ACA subsidies and Max out Roth conversions early?
Replies: 46
Views: 2082

Re: Forget ACA subsidies and Max out Roth conversions early?

Expected Accounts at retirement... Pre-Tax: $1850k Taxable (equities): $839k Taxable CDs: $200k Is "pre-tax" money in traditional IRA/401k? About 40% IRA, 60% 401k. I plan to roll into the IRA next year. No backdoor Roth without aggravation. Without know your other income situation (pensions, SS, e...
by marcopolo
Sat May 30, 2020 5:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Forget ACA subsidies and Max out Roth conversions early?
Replies: 46
Views: 2082

Re: Forget ACA subsidies and Max out Roth conversions early?

I have read many similar postings with many people on the fence as to whether or not to convert early (before 65) or starting at 65. I'm hoping you can assess my new plan. My plan has been ACA subsidies until 65. However, I now believe it's likely, with the recent trillions allocated by our gov't f...
by marcopolo
Sat May 30, 2020 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Simple jobs during FATFire?
Replies: 152
Views: 9666

Re: Simple jobs during FATFire?

Agree health insurance is expensive. But, this discussion was about FatFIRE, which I think is supposed to mean being in great financial shape to retire early with a very nice style of living. If one has to work to get subsidized health insurance, I am just having a hard time seeing how they could b...
by marcopolo
Sat May 30, 2020 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Simple jobs during FATFire?
Replies: 152
Views: 9666

Re: Simple jobs during FATFire?

Me and SO should be on track to FATFire around 45-50. However, I don't want to just sit at home at this time. In our 40s and 50s I would have worked 20+ years in software engineering and would have developed significant skills there to perhaps do something in that space. We are currently in our ear...
by marcopolo
Sat May 30, 2020 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”
Replies: 233
Views: 17946

Re: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”

I agree, TimeLord. I have sort of the opposite view of a LMP from that of being a "skin of the teeth" scenario. To me a LMP can (should?) be used if one has oversaved, or had success at investing, during the accumulation years and has far more than they might reasonably need for their chosen liabil...
by marcopolo
Fri May 29, 2020 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”
Replies: 233
Views: 17946

Re: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”

My only point is that people sometimes seem to present LMP as some magical thing that somehow makes your retirment "safer". But, it is really just mentally shifting the same dollars around, and is not functionally any different. It’s a way of deductively building an asset allocation. Agreed.
by marcopolo
Fri May 29, 2020 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”
Replies: 233
Views: 17946

Re: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”

I agree, TimeLord. I have sort of the opposite view of a LMP from that of being a "skin of the teeth" scenario. To me a LMP can (should?) be used if one has oversaved, or had success at investing, during the accumulation years and has far more than they might reasonably need for their chosen liabil...
by marcopolo
Fri May 29, 2020 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care
Replies: 86
Views: 9615

Re: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care

My business in rural midwest has recovered quite well. Pre Covid I was seeing 100 patients per week. At the nadir it was 10 patients /week. Now it is 90/week. My area has been only mildly affected and the best guess is that we will never get hit like the major cities. My employer has cut physician ...
by marcopolo
Fri May 29, 2020 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”
Replies: 233
Views: 17946

Re: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”

Who is recommending you completely quit playing the game? And why do some BH seem to paint a picture of people with LMP as skin of the teeth no buffer retirees? Sure you can come up with scenarios that make different types of plans fail but the way I hear LMP and "Won the game" strategies described...
by marcopolo
Fri May 29, 2020 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”
Replies: 233
Views: 17946

Re: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”

Who is recommending you completely quit playing the game? And why do some BH seem to paint a picture of people with LMP as skin of the teeth no buffer retirees? Sure you can come up with scenarios that make different types of plans fail but the way I hear LMP and "Won the game" strategies described...
by marcopolo
Fri May 29, 2020 3:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care
Replies: 86
Views: 9615

Re: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care

My business in rural midwest has recovered quite well. Pre Covid I was seeing 100 patients per week. At the nadir it was 10 patients /week. Now it is 90/week. My area has been only mildly affected and the best guess is that we will never get hit like the major cities. My employer has cut physician ...
by marcopolo
Fri May 29, 2020 2:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does reinvesting TSM dividends artificially inflate one’s position in growth stocks?
Replies: 24
Views: 1329

Re: Does reinvesting TSM dividends artificially inflate one’s position in growth stocks?

Yes, obviously dividend reinvestment occurs at market cap weight. That's not really the question as I see it. Rather, the question is whether dividend reinvestment in TSM is effectively making companies that retain their earnings more expensive while making those that distribute their earnings less...
by marcopolo
Fri May 29, 2020 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does reinvesting TSM dividends artificially inflate one’s position in growth stocks?
Replies: 24
Views: 1329

Re: Does reinvesting TSM dividends artificially inflate one’s position in growth stocks?

I've asked this same question, and received the same answer you did. Anyway, you have a nice example to counter that answer. Can I nitpick your values though? I don't think you can allocate 50% of dividend reinvestment to value. You can only allocate 49.25%. So: 3) After reinvesting dividends |————...
by marcopolo
Thu May 28, 2020 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does reinvesting TSM dividends artificially inflate one’s position in growth stocks?
Replies: 24
Views: 1329

Re: Does reinvesting TSM dividends artificially inflate one’s position in growth stocks?

You end with market cap, same as you started before the dividend was paid, no? 1) Before dividend payment: |—————Value $100—————|—————Growth $100—————| |—————Value 50% —————|—————Growth 50% —————| 2) After dividend payment, before reinvesting dividends: |———Value $97 ———|———Growth $100———|—Cash $3 ...
by marcopolo
Thu May 28, 2020 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does reinvesting TSM dividends artificially inflate one’s position in growth stocks?
Replies: 24
Views: 1329

Re: Does reinvesting TSM dividends artificially inflate one’s position in growth stocks?

You end with market cap, same as you started before the dividend was paid, no? 1) Before dividend payment: |—————Value $100—————|—————Growth $100—————| |—————Value 50% —————|—————Growth 50% —————| 2) After dividend payment, before reinvesting dividends: |———Value $97 ———|———Growth $100———|—Cash $3 ...
by marcopolo
Thu May 28, 2020 11:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Simple jobs during FATFire?
Replies: 152
Views: 9666

Re: Simple jobs during FATFire?

Me and SO should be on track to FATFire around 45-50. However, I don't want to just sit at home at this time. In our 40s and 50s I would have worked 20+ years in software engineering and would have developed significant skills there to perhaps do something in that space. We are currently in our ear...
by marcopolo
Thu May 28, 2020 10:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Simple jobs during FATFire?
Replies: 152
Views: 9666

Re: Simple jobs during FATFire?

Me and SO should be on track to FATFire around 45-50. However, I don't want to just sit at home at this time. In our 40s and 50s I would have worked 20+ years in software engineering and would have developed significant skills there to perhaps do something in that space. We are currently in our ear...
by marcopolo
Thu May 28, 2020 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 186
Views: 17905

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

It'll be interesting to see who is correct. I notice that there are reports of China preparing for a second wave. That's simply prudent but it does mean fewer PPE exports for the rest of the world. It also implies that if a second wave happens China may respond aggressively leading to a 2nd wave of...
by marcopolo
Thu May 28, 2020 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 186
Views: 17905

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

History indicates that many bears have bull traps and few last only 19 trading days peak to trough...the shortest since 1929 that was 15 days. Probability says...it's not 1929 but also that a very short bear is an anomaly. Care to point out how many lows have been retraced after coming back this mu...
by marcopolo
Thu May 28, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 186
Views: 17905

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

It's not about if it does or does not happen, it is about being set up to handle the risk whether it happens of not. And since I can only prepare for a finite set of outcomes I choose to focus my efforts and planning on those that are the most likely. +1 , history and probability matters. History i...
by marcopolo
Wed May 27, 2020 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Avoiding keeping-up-with-the-joneses w.r.t. private schools
Replies: 241
Views: 12172

Re: Avoiding keeping-up-with-the-joneses w.r.t. private schools

These school threads always go like this. If I were the OP, I'd ask for input mainly from folks familiar with the Bay Area since the dynamics are unique. Other geographic input is more noise than signal since people don't understand that income is basically "middle class", more or less depending on...
by marcopolo
Wed May 27, 2020 7:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Retirement Audition; House Budget; Cash Sub-Allocation Queries
Replies: 16
Views: 989

Re: Early Retirement Audition; House Budget; Cash Sub-Allocation Queries

As others have mentioned, the desire to live off dividends is quite arbitrary. Dividend payouts have been steadily declining due to tax and compensation approaches. What will you do if more companies decide to do more buybacks instead of dividends to return cash to shareholders? Focus on total retur...
by marcopolo
Tue May 26, 2020 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Gain Harvesting – how do you time your stock sales?
Replies: 12
Views: 400

Re: Tax Gain Harvesting – how do you time your stock sales?

I do this.

I wait until the end of the year for two reasons.

1) Most years are up, so on average this works out better
2) I have a better sense of my other income (dividend, CG distributions, etc.) to know how much room i have to the top of each bracket
by marcopolo
Mon May 25, 2020 3:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do you retire early if your money is tied up in tax deferred?
Replies: 26
Views: 3591

Re: How do you retire early if your money is tied up in tax deferred?

If you are 53 and have a $2.5M portfolio, how do you retire early if most of it is in a 401k? Arent there penaities if u withdraw before 59.5? when you say most, what percentage so you mean? Rule 72t cam be implemented right away, but it is very restrictive. A better option, if you have some additi...
by marcopolo
Sun May 24, 2020 9:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Friendly States
Replies: 431
Views: 31743

Re: Retirement Friendly States

Hawaii has great beach and resort weather year round. Wonderful if you are visiting. Wonderful to live there as long as one is adaptable. Though it may be the 51 'st state, it is a bit different than the USA. However, living in Hawaii is interesting: Unique Island Culture and Hawaii-centric points ...
by marcopolo
Sat May 23, 2020 11:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College in fall
Replies: 309
Views: 30430

Re: College in fall

She did fine with the on-line experience. But, to me, that's not what college is. I want her to have the whole experience and I don't care about saving some money because they're fully online. I WANT to pay that extra money. Being on campus, around friends, her sorority, football (she's at a big SE...
by marcopolo
Sat May 23, 2020 2:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63135

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Where are all the people that sold in March because this time was different and we were heading for the biggest crash of all time? I don't recall lots of people saying in March that we were heading for the biggest crash of all time. Really? That seemed like half the posts on this forum back then. B...
by marcopolo
Wed May 20, 2020 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63135

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

We are in a depression...and it might get worse. You cannot just turn off the economy like a light switch and expect to flip it back on at some (undetermined) point and think all will be fine and it's just a temporary slow down. This whole notion that was sold to the public a couple of months ago w...
by marcopolo
Wed May 20, 2020 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63135

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

We are in a depression...and it might get worse. By the way, comparing what we are currently experiencing to a depression, I think is incredibly insulting to people who have actually had to live through a depression, either in the US, or in other countries that have experienced actual depressions i...
by marcopolo
Wed May 20, 2020 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63135

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

We are in a depression...and it might get worse. By the way, comparing what we are currently experiencing to a depression, I think is incredibly insulting to people who have actually had to live through a depression, either in the US, or in other countries that have experienced actual depressions i...
by marcopolo
Wed May 20, 2020 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63135

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

In a thread comparing the "current recession" (at the time we were not even in a recession, yet) to the great depression: Lockdown likely until June. https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2020-03-22/us-coronavirus-lockdown-to-last-10-12-weeks-top-trump-official-says I really don't see how we avoi...
by marcopolo
Wed May 20, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63135

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

In a thread comparing the "current recession" (at the time we were not even in a recession, yet) to the great depression: Lockdown likely until June. https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2020-03-22/us-coronavirus-lockdown-to-last-10-12-weeks-top-trump-official-says I really don't see how we avoi...
by marcopolo
Wed May 20, 2020 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63135

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Where are all the people that sold in March because this time was different and we were heading for the biggest crash of all time? I don't recall lots of people saying in March that we were heading for the biggest crash of all time. Really? That seemed like half the posts on this forum back then. B...
by marcopolo
Tue May 19, 2020 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College in fall
Replies: 309
Views: 30430

Re: College in fall

I don't care about paying extra $. I want my daughter's school to be open if possible so she doesn't have to do on-line school again. I'd gladly pay thousands of bucks for her to have a normal college experience. That may not be possible, though. But we're already paying about $900 for an apartment...
by marcopolo
Tue May 19, 2020 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63135

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Where are all the people that sold in March because this time was different and we were heading for the biggest crash of all time? I don't recall lots of people saying in March that we were heading for the biggest crash of all time. Really? That seemed like half the posts on this forum back then. B...
by marcopolo
Tue May 19, 2020 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5734
Views: 490305

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Not enough data to assess Moderna Covid-19 vaccine: STAT News https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/05/19/not-enough-data-to-assess-moderna-covid-19-vaccine-stat-news.html Vaccine experts say Moderna didn’t produce data critical to assessing Covid-19 vaccine https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/19/vaccine-ex...
by marcopolo
Tue May 19, 2020 3:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ETF versus MF
Replies: 29
Views: 1518

Re: ETF versus MF

David Jay wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 2:41 pm
Mutual funds are purchased in "dollars and cents" quantities. ETFs are purchased in "shares" quantities.
Not necessarily true anymore, at least as seen by the investor.

Fidelity now has dollar and cents based transactions for ETFs.
by marcopolo
Mon May 18, 2020 1:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: RSUs [how long to hold]
Replies: 32
Views: 1400

Re: RSUs [how long to hold]

My RSUs released this morning at market open. To be sure they sold ASAP, I put in a "sell all" last night. They're gone. Now, just have to wait until settlement to do something with the cash. Do you really have to wait until the same of RSU settles? Shouldn't what you buy have a settlement time as ...
by marcopolo
Sun May 17, 2020 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement
Replies: 115
Views: 5874

Re: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement

Sequence of Returns is a well known issue for decumulation. There is a clear explanation on the wiki, showing what happens when one reverses sequence of returns in retirement: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/User:Leeraar/Sequence_of_return_risk In the wiki article, the author provides a chart which...
by marcopolo
Sun May 17, 2020 1:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the point of TLH when you already have booked losses?
Replies: 35
Views: 2080

Re: What's the point of TLH when you already have booked losses?

I think this is a "well, it can't hurt" situation. There is only potential benefit, with a worst case outcome of just consuming the banked losses selling the same assets and breaking even. Reading between the lines, I think this was what the OP was touching on, but I can't speak for him/her. I don'...
by marcopolo
Sat May 16, 2020 10:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Not Driving much - Cancel full coverage on car insurance and get liability only - Good idea?
Replies: 11
Views: 1327

Re: Not Driving much - Cancel full coverage on car insurance and get liability only - Good idea?

Reasons for comprehensive.... 1. Theft 2. Random garage item falling and damaging car 3. Collisions into the garage door 4. Acts of God that happen on garage and mess up cars (though, I don't know if homeowners insurance could cover this...) This is not an exhaustive list, but I doubt you're likely...
by marcopolo
Sat May 16, 2020 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15485

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

2. What people did with money withdrawn from the stock market in years past is completely irrelevant. Point is that if people were withdrawing en masse from the stock market to fund their retirement, historic returns would have been lower. You're overlooking the fact that in order for people in tim...
by marcopolo
Sat May 16, 2020 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Open Social Security strategy results question
Replies: 58
Views: 3995

Re: Open Social Security strategy results question

The calculator is making (possibly unwarranted) assumptions about your lifespans. If you ask the calculator to give you the optimal strategy assuming you both live to be 110, the calculator will likely have your wife waiting until at least her full retirement age before claiming. Likewise, if you a...
by marcopolo
Sat May 16, 2020 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Open Social Security strategy results question
Replies: 58
Views: 3995

Re: Open Social Security strategy results question

The calculator is making (possibly unwarranted) assumptions about your lifespans. If you ask the calculator to give you the optimal strategy assuming you both live to be 110, the calculator will likely have your wife waiting until at least her full retirement age before claiming. Likewise, if you a...
by marcopolo
Fri May 15, 2020 3:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 529 vs reducing FAFSA assets
Replies: 15
Views: 939

Re: 529 vs reducing FAFSA assets

I think the general advice on 529 plans, and what we did, was to max out all other tax-advantaged accounts (401k, IRA/Roth, HSA, etc.) before vontributing to 529.
by marcopolo
Fri May 15, 2020 3:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18838
Views: 2633274

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Just curious. Since you went to cash you probably will pay tax on capital gains? Did you expect it or it doesn’t buzzer you to pay big bill at once? Maybe it is not that big? Just trying to put myself in your shoes) mentally. I suppose this is a good point. Admittedly, I am young and my portfolio i...