Search found 1052 matches

by marcopolo
Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equities as a hedge against inflation
Replies: 15
Views: 616

Re: Equities as a hedge against inflation

This obviously falls into a category like speculation, belief, or dogma, as we don’t know for sure. I buy into it because without being able to return at least at the inflation rate corporations would not attract capital. So this becomes primal for them. I have also read that since corporations are...
by marcopolo
Tue Sep 25, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Primary w2 with new 1099 side gig taxes
Replies: 2
Views: 93

Re: Primary w2 with new 1099 side gig taxes

I've held a primary w2 position for 5 years now. Base pay is $150k, so I always meet the max amount FICA tax. Starting next month, ill be doing a 1099 gig earning flat rate of $700/month. I understand that self employment taxes are the full 15.3% vs 7.65% from an employee paid via w2. My question i...
by marcopolo
Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2019 ACA prices out
Replies: 40
Views: 3244

Re: 2019 ACA prices out

Yes - that would be interesting if after the smoke clears, it's ruled that the mandate has to be enforced - do we get a 2019 rebate since the pricing was based on less younger members in the pool. There are also some indications of companies making money on the plans so that points to more stabiliz...
by marcopolo
Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't Fear the Reaper (RMDs) - White Coat Investor blog post
Replies: 25
Views: 2832

Re: Don't Fear the Reaper (RMDs) - White Coat Investor blog post

Not to be a downer, but the wise thing to do is keep saving. There is no reason to assume we will be spared a Depression worse than the Great one sometime during one's retirement. I suspect there were plenty of people who thought they were sitting pretty in 1929... Forever? You do know that the "4%...
by marcopolo
Mon Sep 24, 2018 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 49
Views: 2688

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

Is there analysis to support that throwing out the lowest score (Russian judge?) in the CAPE averaging has better predictive power than simple averaging? Don't know. I find such idea weird and arbitrary though, why ignore an inconvenient data point? Numbers are not human beings. I agree with you, i...
by marcopolo
Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 49
Views: 2688

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

As a general concept, I tend to agree that extreme valuation (particularly after a number of years of out performance), likely portends lower than average return some time in the future. I try to plan accordingly, save more, use lower WR, etc. But, how much lower, and when that will materialize, I t...
by marcopolo
Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care
Replies: 77
Views: 3614

Re: Long Term Care

I assume that longer deductible periods would appeal to few prospects. Regarding the One America policies, if the policy can do what you want it to do, pay a claim for lifetime and no rate increases, and the premiums are tolerable, seems the added bonus of life insurance or an annuity are really ir...
by marcopolo
Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 49
Views: 2688

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

* US stocks: if CAPE10 > 25 then reduce by 10%. If > 30 reduce by 20%. If > 35 reduce by 30%. If CAPE < 12 increase by 10%. If < 8 increase by 20%. If < 5 increase by 30%. Err on the side of doing nothing. I've had this exact IPS since 2012, it fluctuated a bit before then but the CAPE element has ...
by marcopolo
Sun Sep 23, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 49
Views: 2688

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

Here it is, for those who have asked (in summary form, omitting elements of the IPS which are specific to my situation or otherwise personal): * 60/40 stocks/bonds * Bonds 50/50 total bond/stable value until 10 year treasury > 6% * Stocks 50/50 US/international, can go up 75% international based on...
by marcopolo
Sat Sep 22, 2018 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 58
Views: 3775

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

But I went to the multpl website and found that in 2000, CAPE was 44, or 300% of it's long term average. According to your graph, forward PE was 26, or maybe 160% of mean (using the line indicated on your graph). In the most expensive global stock market bubble of the last twenty years, and one of ...
by marcopolo
Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those who use a 2 year cash(like) buffer, how do you know when to use it?
Replies: 67
Views: 5376

Re: For those who use a 2 year cash(like) buffer, how do you know when to use it?

I think the best way to make my point is look at the article and you see that the 100% equity glide path almost does as well as the upward sloping glide paths. I get a very different takeaway from the article. Maybe it depends on your definition of "almost does as well". If you look at the table ju...
by marcopolo
Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those who use a 2 year cash(like) buffer, how do you know when to use it?
Replies: 67
Views: 5376

Re: For those who use a 2 year cash(like) buffer, how do you know when to use it?

All of these models were based upon history. The problem is when it goes down, it assumes the markets will go back up in reasonably short order. So it calls for a heavy stock portfolio when you are very old and have drawn down much of your portfolio. You are making a big bet that what you have will...
by marcopolo
Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those who use a 2 year cash(like) buffer, how do you know when to use it?
Replies: 67
Views: 5376

Re: For those who use a 2 year cash(like) buffer, how do you know when to use it?

That makes sense, but 50/50 isn't much of a 'bond tent' strategy. Kitces' example was much more bond heavy at the point of retirement. While Kitces has written several posts of rising equity glide paths and "bond tents", I am not sure i have seen a specific starting AA recommended by him for the bo...
by marcopolo
Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those who use a 2 year cash(like) buffer, how do you know when to use it?
Replies: 67
Views: 5376

Re: For those who use a 2 year cash(like) buffer, how do you know when to use it?

I would assume that with such a strategy, it would likely be a long time before you would ever sell equities. No, if the market is up then I will sell equities for living expenses. But because I will be moving the AA towards equities it does bias towards spending bonds. For example, if equities are...
by marcopolo
Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those who use a 2 year cash(like) buffer, how do you know when to use it?
Replies: 67
Views: 5376

Re: For those who use a 2 year cash(like) buffer, how do you know when to use it?

I expect to retire next year. In my IPS, I call for an increasing equity glideslope (I built a "bond tent" for my early retirement years) of 2% per year. This takes care of both situations: a downturn or good times because I "pay myself first" (i.e I withdraw expenses as the first re-balance step)....
by marcopolo
Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those who use a 2 year cash(like) buffer, how do you know when to use it?
Replies: 67
Views: 5376

Re: For those who use a 2 year cash(like) buffer, how do you know when to use it?

David Jay, In order for this to work, your portfolio has to be big enough. Is the assumption here that your portfolio is 50 times your retirment expense? KlangFool Not following your line of thinking, there is nothing about my strategy that requires an excess portfolio. ERN demonstrates that an inc...
by marcopolo
Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 58
Views: 3775

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

Finally, it is not correct that the 2008 earnings will suddenly drop off and be replaced with 2018 earnings. The multpl web site actually calculates Shiller PE daily and provides tabular data monthly. I believe Shiller's website used to calculate CAPE monthly if not daily but I haven't checked it i...
by marcopolo
Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 58
Views: 3775

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

My point with this thread was merely to illustrate that the idea that 'valuations are high' is not true of all valuation metrics. CAPE appears to be high, but more 'current' metrics do not appear to be high. CAPE 8, by the way, is nearly 5 points lower than CAPE 10 (because you get to drop off 2008...
by marcopolo
Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those who use a 2 year cash(like) buffer, how do you know when to use it?
Replies: 67
Views: 5376

Re: For those who use a 2 year cash(like) buffer, how do you know when to use it?

I expect to retire next year. In my IPS, I call for an increasing equity glideslope (I built a "bond tent" for my early retirement years) of 2% per year. This takes care of both situations: a downturn or good times because I "pay myself first" (i.e I withdraw expenses as the first re-balance step)....
by marcopolo
Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Switching Vxus (tot int vanguard) to ftipx (Fid tot int)
Replies: 9
Views: 473

Re: Switching Vxus (tot int vanguard) to ftipx (Fid tot int)

I’m thinking of selling about 140k of etf Vxus (Vang tot international) and switch to ftipx (Fidelity total international) for simplicity and to save some on fees in my 401k. Any downsides anyone can think of? Nope Can one sell 140k of the etf fairly easily? Will fidelity let me invest this much in...
by marcopolo
Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ACA tax credits
Replies: 6
Views: 729

Re: ACA tax credits

2019 MAGI for 2019 premium support
by marcopolo
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller interview: "Market could get a lot higher"
Replies: 28
Views: 4489

Re: Robert Shiller interview: "Market could get a lot higher"

I heard him on YouTube the other day, and the main point he made regarding this, was that in 1996 pundits were saying we've had the longest bull run ever in history and it was about to crash and then the bull run continued for another 4 years. He also mentioned that the various ratios/markers are v...
by marcopolo
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I really retire? Please check my math and poke holes.
Replies: 48
Views: 5667

Re: Can I really retire? Please check my math and poke holes.

If I tried to budget to all unknowns and risks I'd have to work till 70 ! LOL. You are being way too optimistic. If you read some of the threads on the fears that are sometimes conjured up on this forum, you would never retire! I think you are looking at it the right way. You have to balance risks ...
by marcopolo
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I really retire? Please check my math and poke holes.
Replies: 48
Views: 5667

Re: Can I really retire? Please check my math and poke holes.

An 80% success rate by your advisor would make me uncomfortable as that means there is 20% "failure" rate. For 5 couples in your exact same circumstance, one of them will not make it (statistically) due to unforeseen circumstances like death of one partner soon after retiring, medical issues, or an...
by marcopolo
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I really retire? Please check my math and poke holes.
Replies: 48
Views: 5667

Re: Can I really retire? Please check my math and poke holes.

If it was easy decision I would have already made up my mind. That is why I'm reaching out for other's thoughts. Being on the cusp is difficult. I'm tired of working, but could keep doing it if needed. I'm both lucky and unlucky to have the luxury of making that decision. I could become a crappy wo...
by marcopolo
Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's the best early retirement strategy for us?
Replies: 39
Views: 3078

Re: What's the best early retirement strategy for us?

I would start by line-item estimation of expenses instead of relying on what others have told you. I don’t believe $2k. The Airstream purchase needs to be financed. Then it requires insurance and maintenance, depreciates in value and needs to be replaced, so you need its replacement in your savings...
by marcopolo
Tue Sep 18, 2018 9:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I really retire? Please check my math and poke holes.
Replies: 48
Views: 5667

Re: Can I really retire? Please check my math and poke holes.

Overall, the numbers in your plan seem to work out. Having health insurance covered is a huge advantage. A few comments: 1) For the money set aside between 61-70, you should be able to safely get at least enough earning to cover inflation (TIPS, CD ladder, or Short term bonds), so, i see no reason t...
by marcopolo
Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there such thing as saving TOO much?
Replies: 78
Views: 6765

Re: Is there such thing as saving TOO much?

As for taxes, I've always paid close to 20% in taxes, even the first year of marriage, in which our combined annual gross income was just shy of $10k. Of course, we got it all back in April, but that no effect on our month-to-month income. And you can't just front-load (or back-load) expenses to ma...
by marcopolo
Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how do/did you teach your kids finances/investing?
Replies: 28
Views: 2187

Re: how do/did you teach your kids finances/investing?

OP, You want your daughter to manage her money/budget. But, you would not let her manage any money. So, how could she learn anything? Why do you need to say "no" to her anyhow? We give our kid $25 for birthday and X'mas. They receive a few hundred as gift annually from the extended family. They get...
by marcopolo
Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Double Check
Replies: 23
Views: 1574

Re: Retirement Double Check

All, I'm about to leave our financial advisor, but before I do I'm going to present the retirement plan I've written to my wife, so I need a double check. Retirement date: 7/01/2038 age 65 Estimated annual expenses / budget $90,000 Estimated Retirement fund goal (90,000 x 25) = $2,250,000 Our Futur...
by marcopolo
Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Double Check
Replies: 23
Views: 1574

Re: Retirement Double Check

Looks like you can retire earlier than 65. :-) :sharebeer Sure, but why? If you're healthy and like the work, keep going, and trade early retirement for a cushier lifestyle, safety against the unexpected, and ability to help the kids from time to time. ER is overrated. There is an incredibly wide g...
by marcopolo
Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there such thing as saving TOO much?
Replies: 78
Views: 6765

Re: Is there such thing as saving TOO much?

So Far this year, I've saved roughly 26k...and I've made about 38k... How? I would've expected taxes to cut that $38k to $30k. You've lived nearly nine months on $4k? LiterallyIronic, You are not used to being on this side of this particular type of conversation, are you? It seems it is usually som...
by marcopolo
Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax loss harvesting - wash sale rule
Replies: 57
Views: 3173

Re: Tax loss harvesting - wash sale rule

We should drop all the insults, no matter how softly phrased, since they are insults, nonetheless. Here is a simple example. Imagine an index that tracks exactly one share each of exactly ten companies. It's the One-Ten Index. We have Company A that charges .0501% fees, and Company B that charges ....
by marcopolo
Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax loss harvesting - wash sale rule
Replies: 57
Views: 3173

Re: Tax loss harvesting - wash sale rule

We should drop all the insults, no matter how softly phrased, since they are insults, nonetheless. Here is a simple example. Imagine an index that tracks exactly one share each of exactly ten companies. It's the One-Ten Index. We have Company A that charges .0501% fees, and Company B that charges ....
by marcopolo
Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5178

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

What if you learn these things AFTER years of underperformance, That is the part i still struggle with. This has been an interesting conversation, and I have learned some new information. But, a combination of two commonly repeated themes still gives me a lot of concern about this strategy: 1) Thes...
by marcopolo
Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?
Replies: 111
Views: 7413

Re: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?

I delayed SS until 70 for several reasons. DW has excellent health and both her parents lived to be over 102. We used the time with slightly lower income to convert to Roth accounts. I liked the idea of trading some of my taxable portfolio for higher income payments on a regular basis. I like separ...
by marcopolo
Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com
Replies: 69
Views: 5557

Re: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com

You’re confused because the argument you rely on is fundamentally flawed. It relies on faith that historical US market returns, during most of the 20th century, define the boundaries within which future returns over a specific 30-year period will be realized. I have no such faith. The 4% rule argum...
by marcopolo
Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com
Replies: 69
Views: 5557

Re: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com

It doesn't surprise me that 4% is off because that's just not a conservative number to begin with, I am thoroughly confused by this statement. Historically, there has only been one 30 year cohort where the '4% rule' didn't work, 1966, and I believe that depending on the bonds used and the specific ...
by marcopolo
Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fine tuning income around the ACA cliff
Replies: 24
Views: 1955

Re: Fine tuning income around the ACA cliff

You seem like you are tracking things pretty closely and have accounted for anything i could think of. The end of year capital gains is a bit of a wild card. So, I think you are right to wait till the last minute to do the Roth conversions. It's too bad we don't get until tax filing time to do conve...
by marcopolo
Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 16993

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

How does anyone know what their investment horizon is? Obviously no one "knows" the future yet every one of us is constantly planning for the future nonetheless. I don't "know" when I'm going to buy my next car but I save and invest according to my best expectation. I don't "know" what the temperat...
by marcopolo
Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My daughter's inheritance.
Replies: 63
Views: 8033

Re: My daughter's inheritance.

But what I'll also suggest is that you give yourself permission to use advisers for a few years if you want. You could use a fiduciary adviser for a while until you're both comfortable managing the fund. You could use the time to ask questions, read, do your research, get comfortable with your prio...
by marcopolo
Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Rewards Visa Card
Replies: 51
Views: 7042

Re: Fidelity Rewards Visa Card

milo minderbinder wrote:
Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:49 am

Yeah, they make you ask for the 2%. But if you ask for it like I did they will give it to you.
I thought for sure you were going to say "But, if you ask for it, that proves you don't need it, so they will not give it to you" ! :sharebeer
by marcopolo
Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much do bogleheads save in 529?
Replies: 79
Views: 4509

Re: How much do bogleheads save in 529?

I don't see 4 year college education becoming free for most people anytime in the near/moderate future. We started 529 plans soon as each kid was born, kept increasing contributions until they got to be about $10k per plan. Stopped additional contributions for each kid when the balance hit about $20...
by marcopolo
Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much do bogleheads save in 529?
Replies: 79
Views: 4509

Re: How much do bogleheads save in 529?

I would only put money in a 529 plan if you run out of retirement space (IRA, Roth and 401k taxable and aftertax). Some folks in the public sector have a very large amount of tax-advantaged space. My family could contribute almost 90% of our gross annual income to tax-advantaged accounts. For those...
by marcopolo
Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 206374

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Marcopolo, you are late to this thread and as far as I am concerned Nisi is being incredibly narrow. There were long discussions about the ER and what matters to most is what they are paying. If a car has a list price of 30K and you buy it on sale for 27.5K do you tell people you paid 30K for your ...
by marcopolo
Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 206374

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I just tried it to see. Fidelity gives me a message saying these funds are closed to new investors. I get the same message for QSPIX, QSPRX, and QSPNX. Maybe you are grandfathered in? This is correct, they are closed to new investors. I think they are only closed to new investors through retail out...
by marcopolo
Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 206374

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Marcopolo, you are late to this thread and as far as I am concerned Nisi is being incredibly narrow. There were long discussions about the ER and what matters to most is what they are paying. If a car has a list price of 30K and you buy it on sale for 27.5K do you tell people you paid 30K for your ...
by marcopolo
Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 206374

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Correct me if i am wrong, but I believe these funds are only available through an advisor. So, to the consumer the fees would likely be even higher, right? That is going to take a LOT of portfolio efficiency improvements to overcome. I hope it works out for you true believers. I am going to sit thi...
by marcopolo
Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 206374

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Correct me if i am wrong, but I believe these funds are only available through an advisor. So, to the consumer the fees would likely be even higher, right? That is going to take a LOT of portfolio efficiency improvements to overcome. I hope it works out for you true believers. I am going to sit this...
by marcopolo
Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 206374

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Nisi I was referring to QSPIX (which is the thread title after all and referred to in my post). There has been a long history about the ER on it. Lackey mentioned as well. Check footnotes for net. 1.5 or 1.6 https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=167241&start=1300 I guess i am one of thos...