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by marcopolo
Sun Apr 21, 2019 3:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: KF's Worst Case Retirement Plan [KlangFool's]
Replies: 293
Views: 39794

Re: KF's Worst Case Retirement Plan [KlangFool's]

TexasMu, https://www.ssa.gov/oact/COLA/AWI.html https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/bendpoints.html The quick and dirty to confirm whether you cross the second bend point is A) Take the latest second bend point number, $5,583 and multiply by 35 (years) and 12 (months) ~ 2.3 million. B) Add up the top 35 ...
by marcopolo
Sun Apr 21, 2019 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: KF's Worst Case Retirement Plan [KlangFool's]
Replies: 293
Views: 39794

Re: KF's Worst Case Retirement Plan [KlangFool's]

Care to share the formula for the bend points ? I would like to recreate the spreadsheet for myself. TexasMu, https://www.ssa.gov/oact/COLA/AWI.html https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/bendpoints.html The quick and dirty to confirm whether you cross the second bend point is A) Take the latest second bend...
by marcopolo
Sun Apr 21, 2019 3:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: KF's Worst Case Retirement Plan [KlangFool's]
Replies: 293
Views: 39794

Re: KF's Worst Case Retirement Plan [KlangFool's]

Care to share the formula for the bend points ? I would like to recreate the spreadsheet for myself. TexasMu, https://www.ssa.gov/oact/COLA/AWI.html https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/bendpoints.html The quick and dirty to confirm whether you cross the second bend point is A) Take the latest second bend...
by marcopolo
Sun Apr 21, 2019 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 38960

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

The significant risk of serious life-altering injuries (particularly in older age) stops me from cycling and skiing, but hiking is fine. I do have enough time for hiking even without retiring. I agree that you somehow find ways to fill your time in retirement, but I felt that time was evaporating w...
by marcopolo
Sun Apr 21, 2019 9:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 38960

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

I don't think your last point, highlighted above, is true. I believe the limiting series for the "4% rule" are the 30 year periods starting in the mid 60s (1966 being the worst), where the failure resulted mostly from slow deterioration of purchasing power over the next 15 years due to high inflati...
by marcopolo
Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 38960

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

You don't have to work during the great depression, you can do something lucrative and decrease your SWR ahead of it. Huh? Do something "lucrative"? In the middle of the biggest economic meltdown in the history of the US? I think you would benefit from reading some history of this period. Just to p...
by marcopolo
Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 177
Views: 10026

Re: Market timers thread

Just for curiosity, do you know what the risk-adjusted returns were for your portfolio relative to the 60/40 benchmark. I see a Std Dev on the far right, but it was not clear if that was of the returns, or of something else. Yes, that Std Dev is of the returns. I'm very close to the benchmark if yo...
by marcopolo
Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 38960

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

There is not much better investment one can make than in themselves. Why would being better at your job make place a target on your back? Agree with your first statement, that is why people are going “creative” in achieving FI/Early Retirement. To your second sentence: getting better at your job do...
by marcopolo
Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 177
Views: 10026

Re: Market timers thread

I posted my trading history on the second page of this topic. Interesting. Thanks for posting. What is the time-weighted average asset allocation (equity:fixed income) of your portfolio since your started this investment strategy? Is it the 60:40 you used as the Boglehead comparator? (Hard to tell ...
by marcopolo
Sat Apr 20, 2019 8:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 38960

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

The thought occurs to me that people naturally gravitate towards endeavors that benefit selves than others/corporations, and also learned through bitter experiences that getting better at one’s job either does not necessarily fetch a higher salary, or in the rare cases that it does fetch, it also p...
by marcopolo
Sat Apr 20, 2019 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 177
Views: 10026

Re: Market timers thread

I would argue that Buffett's main talent was picking good companies, acquiring them (or big chunks of them), and enabling them to grow to their full potential. Not market timing. Bingo. This is how Buffet makes money investing: http://money.com/money/4466517/warren-buffett-dow-chemical-stock/. Not ...
by marcopolo
Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 38960

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

Here is a real-life cautionary tale about FIRE. A friend FIREd in her mid 40's (shortly before the dot-com bust), took her pension as a lump sum, and set up an SEPP from her roll-over IRA. I'm not privy to her multiple of expenses at the start of her retirement, but I know the mandatory RMDs did a ...
by marcopolo
Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: exposing the lies about active management
Replies: 13
Views: 4094

Re: exposing the lies about active management

http://www.indexuniverse.com/hot-topics/19149-swedroe-taking-on-the-lies-about-active.html while I usually ignore the investment porn put out by Wall Street and the media, on occasion I read some piece because the title hinted that it could provide fodder for my "cannon", exposing the incredible no...
by marcopolo
Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Invest 529 or taxable account?
Replies: 21
Views: 1286

Re: Invest 529 or taxable account?

In my personal experience (1980s), both the parents' and student's assets all counted in the calculation for need-based scholarships. It's certainly posssible that 401Ks and IRAs are exempt from this, but I doubt taxable investment funds of the parent's are exempt. There is a lot of misinformation ...
by marcopolo
Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Invest 529 or taxable account?
Replies: 21
Views: 1286

Re: Invest 529 or taxable account?

My understanding is parental 529 is treated as a parental asset not student asset. There are all sorts of other reasons you may be better off prioritizing retirement savings (tax deferred, if not maxing, or possibly taxable) but you’d have to post more financial details to get opinions on that. But...
by marcopolo
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fun with FIRECalc
Replies: 20
Views: 1503

Re: Fun with FIRECalc

If you like playing with different scenarios, you may want to take a look at cFiresim. I believe it was built upon Firecalc, uses same historical analysis method, but provides a lot more options for various withdrawal methods, and provides more analysis.
by marcopolo
Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I need help with my investement stratagies please
Replies: 20
Views: 1460

Re: I need help with my investement stratagies please

lots of good advice above. One other thing i would look into. You seem to have a lot of excess cash each month, so you could afford to save more in your 401k, if possible. Check with both of your employers to see if their 401k plans allow for after-tax contributions, and in-service rollovers. If the...
by marcopolo
Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 38960

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

Those who are able to retire on a 2% withdrawal rate have the option of transitioning to a 4% rate and live large. While mathematically, this is true, I think how realistic that is depends on how one gets there. If you are merrily going along living your life, building a career, and eventually come...
by marcopolo
Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: College admission inputs - Purdue vs local SJSU vs others
Replies: 54
Views: 2698

Re: College admission inputs - Purdue vs local SJSU vs others

Appreciate any inputs from fellow bogleheads on undergrad admission decision. Have already gone through similar threads on bogleheads and collegeconfidential, but feel each situation is unique and you can always gain some valuable insights from others. This is re. undergrad admission for my son. We...
by marcopolo
Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: College admission inputs - Purdue vs local SJSU vs others
Replies: 54
Views: 2698

Re: College admission inputs - Purdue vs local SJSU vs others

Appreciate any inputs from fellow bogleheads on undergrad admission decision. Have already gone through similar threads on bogleheads and collegeconfidential, but feel each situation is unique and you can always gain some valuable insights from others. This is re. undergrad admission for my son. We...
by marcopolo
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: RSUs and ESPP after 2-Week Notice
Replies: 21
Views: 1233

Re: RSUs and ESPP after 2-Week Notice

I’ve never seen an employer routinely walk everyone to the door when they gave notice, but I have seen companies who walked people out if they were going to competitors. Just to be safe, I would give notice in May 2. I’ve never seen a company get vindictive over $10k in RSU’s, so I think that’s not...
by marcopolo
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Limit on Roth Conversions per year with a Backdoor?
Replies: 15
Views: 663

Re: Limit on Roth Conversions per year with a Backdoor?

Indeed, no need to say "hide". There's nothing sketchy going on here as this process is even documented by the IRS. The $6000 limit is simply the IRA contribution limit for the year. This limit is not unique to the backdoor Roth IRA process itself. Once you make the $6000 contribution, it's in post...
by marcopolo
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 38960

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

So, what would you suggest to prepare for such dire circumstances. Your previous thought of working just a few more years seems woefully inadequate for this type of apocalyptic thinking. Maybe one would better off investing in farm land, guns, and ammunition? Perhaps multiple citizenships, farmland...
by marcopolo
Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Limit on Roth Conversions per year with a Backdoor?
Replies: 15
Views: 663

Re: Limit on Roth Conversions per year with a Backdoor?

I am planning to do a backdoor Roth contribution this year as our income will be near the contribution limit. To prepare, I will need to move (hide) my current Rollover (Traditional IRA) by transferring to my current employer’s 401k plan - or as I understand - I can also convert this account to a R...
by marcopolo
Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 38960

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

The great depression essentially led to WWII, probably the most deadly single conflict in human history, what would a scenario worse than the great depression lead to? Nuclear war and annihilation, perhaps. Or widespread famine. Or moon colonization. Or maybe all of the above. Who knows? But isn’t ...
by marcopolo
Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: RSUs and ESPP after 2-Week Notice
Replies: 21
Views: 1233

Re: RSUs and ESPP after 2-Week Notice

Ask no one. Especially HR who is there to protect the company only and who will tell your boss before you even leave the meeting. Expect a notice before you are vested will result in immediate termination and loss of all RSUs. If you tell anyone, have all your stuff in boxes because you're getting ...
by marcopolo
Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I semi-retire now?
Replies: 138
Views: 12416

Re: Can I semi-retire now?

I would not do it myself. But, without walking a mile in their shoes, I would not judge someone else for doing it. Why wouldn't you do it yourself? [About an hour later] Because it's wrong? People make moral judgments all the time. Read the paper, watch the news, listen to your friends talk, you're...
by marcopolo
Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I semi-retire now?
Replies: 138
Views: 12416

Re: Can I semi-retire now?

I would not do it myself. But, without walking a mile in their shoes, I would not judge someone else for doing it. Why wouldn't you do it yourself? Because I saved for years to fund my kids college education and my early retirement. I have a lot of "un-sheltered assets" in term of college aid formu...
by marcopolo
Thu Apr 18, 2019 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I semi-retire now?
Replies: 138
Views: 12416

Re: Can I semi-retire now?

The point is that those benefits are transfer of funds from the government to an individual, just like the examples I gave above available to wealthy people. They are referred to as "tax expenditures" and they make up a much bigger dollar amount in government spending than the benefits you are comp...
by marcopolo
Thu Apr 18, 2019 5:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I semi-retire now?
Replies: 138
Views: 12416

Re: Can I semi-retire now?

Money is fungible. So, there is really no difference in someone doing soemthing to pay $100 less in taxes to the government then someone getting a $100 check from the government. A tax refund is a payment from the government. If the argument is that people who don't "need" the money should not be t...
by marcopolo
Thu Apr 18, 2019 4:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I semi-retire now?
Replies: 138
Views: 12416

Re: Can I semi-retire now?

I guess we're going to disagree on this one. I totally agree that actions can be legal, but immoral/unethical; I just disagree that these particular laws and processes are likely candidates for that outcome---I think you're generalizing a statement about a narrow set of circumstances, to claim a po...
by marcopolo
Thu Apr 18, 2019 4:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 38960

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

You should definitely work until you die. Otherwise, if you put no bounds on what could happen other than what is "possible", which is everything, than the day after you retire the entire stock, bond, and all other markets could go to 0. Your approach of working a just a few more years to get to 40...
by marcopolo
Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 38960

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

Presumably the Great Depression was worse than the worst of the past. Definitely not, as the Great Depression (if you are talking about 1928+) is part of the past used by Bengen, the Trinity folks, etc. :confused Was not the Great Depression worse than anything that had occurred prior to the Great ...
by marcopolo
Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 38960

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

I would prefer to focus on what's likely and probable instead of what's possible no matter how unlikely. That's why I guess you would not have any problem taking a stroll on the edge of a highrise roof. Well maybe not, but I don't avoid driving to the store just because a tractor trailer might run ...
by marcopolo
Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 38960

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

Presumably the Great Depression was worse than the worst of the past. Definitely not, as the Great Depression (if you are talking about 1928+) is part of the past used by Bengen, the Trinity folks, etc. :confused Was not the Great Depression worse than anything that had occurred prior to the Great ...
by marcopolo
Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 38960

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

Well, a percentage savings rate is more than just for bragging about your frugality. It's closely tied to how long it will you to reach financial independence. I am not getting your assertion here. If you are trying to calculate reaching FI, then what fraction of retirement expense you save each ye...
by marcopolo
Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 38960

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

Aren't you always subject to the Sequence of Return Risk, though? As in, perhaps the first 5 years of retirement went fine, but that only means that, of your 30/40/50 year retirement, you still have 25/35/45/or even another 50 left to go. So don't you still need to care about the next 5 years? And ...
by marcopolo
Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 38960

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

I don't know that [Klangfool] recommends a 50% savings rate, but he certainly practices that. He certainly doesn't recommend a 100% savings rate. I think he does recommend saving 50%, although he words it as saving 100% of current annual expenses. Not sure if taxes are included in expenses though.....
by marcopolo
Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: KF's Worst Case Retirement Plan [KlangFool's]
Replies: 293
Views: 39794

Re: KF's Worst Case Retirement Plan [KlangFool's]

Folks, This is my worst-case retirement scenario. Please review and criticize. 1) Retire at 54 years old with a portfolio of 1 million and the AA of 60/40 2) 300K Mortgage. 6 years into 30 years 3.49% fixed rate mortgage. 4) Annual expense = 60K with the mortgage, 45K without the mortgage . Out of ...
by marcopolo
Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 38960

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

It takes about 6 years in most case to go from 25x to 40x with normal returns(6%) and modest savings rate (.5x). If we get poor returns (2%) real then it takes longer. But if we get 2% real, that 4% is going to think about going back to work as they get poorer and poorer every year. And obviously y...
by marcopolo
Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 38960

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

It takes about 6 years in most case to go from 25x to 40x with normal returns(6%) and modest savings rate (.5x). If we get poor returns (2%) real then it takes longer. But if we get 2% real, that 4% is going to think about going back to work as they get poorer and poorer every year. And obviously y...
by marcopolo
Wed Apr 17, 2019 10:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 38960

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

It takes about 6 years in most case to go from 25x to 40x with normal returns(6%) and modest savings rate (.5x). If we get poor returns (2%) real then it takes longer. But if we get 2% real, that 4% is going to think about going back to work as they get poorer and poorer every year. And obviously y...
by marcopolo
Wed Apr 17, 2019 10:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 38960

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

The key is that the tenets of FIRE plan for a spartan worklife and early and spartan retirement. Good personal financial planning tries to maximize lifestyle during worklife and in retirement, based on an acceptable retirement age, available compensations and market returns. I may have missed some ...
by marcopolo
Wed Apr 17, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Factors That Plague Factor Investing
Replies: 44
Views: 3024

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Factors That Plague Factor Investing

IMHO, the biggest issue related to factor investing is investors' impatience. The historic data are clear that any identified factor has underperformed the market at some point, and this can go on for years. As is evident by the posts of many on this forum, it's very difficult for many, probably mo...
by marcopolo
Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 64081

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

You may well be right about this board not being as bearish/conservative as I might have thought. What I actually think is that there is a relatively high appreciation of risk on BH. How that plays out on the bull/bear continuum depends on the individual. This board is very "bullish" on stocks comp...
by marcopolo
Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Factors That Plague Factor Investing
Replies: 44
Views: 3024

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Factors That Plague Factor Investing

Perhaps there is no premium in these factors and smart beta is just a marketing strategy to obtain assets under management of the money you have to invest. Surely, active managers can outperform passive strategies, because they have way more skill and knowledge than the average investor? Why wouldn...
by marcopolo
Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 64081

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

You may well be right about this board not being as bearish/conservative as I might have thought. What I actually think is that there is a relatively high appreciation of risk on BH. How that plays out on the bull/bear continuum depends on the individual. This board is very "bullish" on stocks comp...
by marcopolo
Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 64081

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

This is the one I worry about. I am fascinated by all the bubble conversation seemingly generated by nothing beyond the longevity of the bull market. People want to worry about the level of market returns over the past 10 years while ignoring market returns over the past 20. Not seeing the factual ...
by marcopolo
Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FIRE Decumulation Strategy Books/Podcasts/Info
Replies: 5
Views: 892

Re: FIRE Decumulation Strategy Books/Podcasts/Info

Hello All, I have put a plan into action where I am saving a high percentage and my portfolio is beginning to grow where I am beginning to think about FIRE and the decumulation phase. I still have a long way to go, but I was looking for a book or information on these Strategies. Specifically, my ta...
by marcopolo
Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 64081

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

While our belief in how actionable are current valuations may be different, it seems to me we are splitting hairs when it comes to actual implementation. You use "age in bonds", so at ~age 70, you have 30% equities. So, despite your worries about current valuations, you don't seem to have let that ...