Search found 139 matches
- Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:07 pm
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298109
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Indeed, COVID-19 lethality does not match flu lethality. So, the maximum estimate of US flu lethality is averages 167 deaths per day according to the data. Italy had 673 covid-19 deaths yesterday. 673 deaths per day. And the population of Italy is only 1/5 of the population of the US. The lethality is nowhere close. I'm not sure what info can be drawn from comparing flu deaths in US to COVID deaths in Italy. I'd guess very little. Well, comparing italy to italy, then. In 2018-19, the worst day of the flu season for Italy had 205 deaths from the flu. This is without taking any extraordinary measures to slow the spread. The last 3 days, even with locking down the whole country, have been 475, 427, 627, and today they will be at about 800. Ex...
- Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:51 pm
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298109
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
So, thus far (as of some time on 21 March 2020): Globally, 11,906 deaths from COVID-19 vs 291,000-646,000 deaths from the flu. in the USA, 260 deaths from COVID-19 vs 12,000-61,000 deaths from the flu. COVID-19 has a ways to go before matching the flu in lethality with regard to the total number of deaths. Indeed, COVID-19 lethality does not match flu lethality. So, the maximum estimate of US flu lethality is averages 167 deaths per day according to the data. Italy had 673 covid-19 deaths yesterday. 673 deaths per day. And the population of Italy is only 1/5 of the population of the US. The lethality is nowhere close. I'm not sure what info can be drawn from comparing flu deaths in US to COVID deaths in Italy. I'd guess very little. Well, ...
- Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:13 pm
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298109
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
So, thus far (as of some time on 21 March 2020): Globally, 11,906 deaths from COVID-19 vs 291,000-646,000 deaths from the flu. in the USA, 260 deaths from COVID-19 vs 12,000-61,000 deaths from the flu. COVID-19 has a ways to go before matching the flu in lethality with regard to the total number of deaths. Indeed, COVID-19 lethality does not match flu lethality. So, the maximum estimate of US flu lethality is averages 167 deaths per day according to the data. Italy had 673 covid-19 deaths yesterday. 673 deaths per day. And the population of Italy is only 1/5 of the population of the US. The lethality is nowhere close. I'm not sure what info can be drawn from comparing flu deaths in US to COVID deaths in Italy. I'd guess very little.
- Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:58 pm
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298109
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
According to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, the total number of deaths due to the Coronavirus has more than doubled since March 13th. If this pace continues, the number of dead in one month will be 217,203. In two months, the number of dead will be 4,155,098. In three months, the number of dead will be 38 million. That's the power of exponential growth, though it's sadly working against humanity. I certainly hope that closing borders, imposing social distancing, etc. will slow this down. But so far, the virus appears to be winning. Today, the new US deaths were less than yesterday (57 down to 51). I know, one day does not make a trend, but hopefully we can start see the curve actually flattening. And the new US cases went up b...
- Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:52 pm
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298109
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Today, the new US deaths were less than yesterday (57 down to 51). I know, one day does not make a trend, but hopefully we can start see the curve actually flattening.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:19 pm According to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, the total number of deaths due to the Coronavirus has more than doubled since March 13th.
If this pace continues, the number of dead in one month will be 217,203.
In two months, the number of dead will be 4,155,098.
In three months, the number of dead will be 38 million.
That's the power of exponential growth, though it's sadly working against humanity.
I certainly hope that closing borders, imposing social distancing, etc. will slow this down. But so far, the virus appears to be winning.
- Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:23 pm
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298109
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Freedom of assembly. Going outside doesn’t hurt anyone. If you cough in someone’s face, that’s a different matter. Prior constraint has usually been ruled unconstitutional. Going outside doesn't hurt anyone if you are completely alone and don't touch anything. Unfortunately, in cities those two conditions rarely, if ever, apply. The first amendment clarifies that there is no freedom of assembly, there is only freedom to assemble PEACEABLY. Assembling peaceably is not possible at the moment, regardless of whether or not you cough on somebody's face. Because people will attack you if you go outside? Because standing in close proximity in large groups does not satisfy the "peaceably" qualifier under these conditions. Please cite the...
- Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:22 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Bond Funds don't work in a crisis
- Replies: 179
- Views: 16762
Re: Bond Funds don't work in a crisis
This was exactly my thought. Just because you don't see the price change of a bond, doesn't mean that if you tried sell it, you wouldn't experience a loss similar to the price of a bond fund that holds the same underlying bonds.Dovahkiin wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:04 am Owning bonds themselves doesn't insulate you from the drop. You'll take the same temporary NAV hit if you try to actually liquidate them. The bond fund represents the market price of the bonds themselves. It's a lot more annoying to liquidate individual bonds to rebalance too.
- Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:09 pm
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298109
Re: Optimism amongst the panic and worry
To the extent that countries like China and SK are seeing a “leveling off”, this can only be sustained with continued draconian measures on a global scale. And such measures / restrictions will continue to tank global economic conditions and markets. “Flattening the curve” doesn’t bring the number of infectious cases to zero, it just prolongs it to ease the surge in hospitals. If a vaccine isn’t brought to the masses within a year, or this bug burn out with temperature (unlikely), I fear this will be cataclysmic. There are an overwhelming number of negative bad news threads running on Bogleheads right now. Why did you find it necessary to bring your "Debbie downer" thoughts to the one thread intended to bring some optimism to the...
- Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:45 pm
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298109
Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?
The important number is symptomatic cases and since they are symptomatic, they can be counted. Not the ones that don't go to the doctor, which may be quite a few that have mild symptoms. But that is always the case, even the flu, which the CDC measures every year. The CDC uses statistical methods to extrapolate from diagnosed cases. The important point is that you don't need universal testing to get a reasonable estimate of the number of cases. Symptomatic cases that stay at home can be derived by statistical sampling. What is important to doctors is characterizing the severity of a disease that they are treating. They want to know that if they have a symptomatic diagnosed case, what is their probability of dying. That is the Case Fatality...
- Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:18 pm
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298109
- Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:11 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Coronavirus and the market
- Replies: 4089
- Views: 392161
Re: Coronavirus and the market
Track record questionable.calmaniac wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:06 pm Former U.S. Treasury secretary Lawrence Summers on Fareed Zakaria GPS: "85-90% chance of a recession", would not surprise him if "as bad as 2008-2009".
http://larrysummers.com/2016/06/06/the- ... be-severe/
- Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:02 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298109
Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?
Coronavirus of and by itself is not worse than influenza. WRONG ! https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/COVID-v-flu.png flu death rate for 65+ is 0.83% Covid-19 death for 60-69 is 6.3% . If you understand math, that is a factor of 8 . It is even worse for ages 70-79 (8% = 10x) and ages 80+ (14.3% = 17x). from https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/03/a-covid-19-coronavirus-update-from-concerned-physicians.html You just quoted flu rate for 65+ and applied that number equally to all ages above 65 to come up with your 10x and 17x figures. See something wrong with that analysis? Also, and I don't know why this is so difficult to understand for people, we don't have a good estimate for the denominator yet since we are only counting symptom...
- Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:58 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Coronavirus and the market
- Replies: 4089
- Views: 392161
- Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:53 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Coronavirus and the market
- Replies: 4089
- Views: 392161
Re: Temporary down phase
A timely question: Why is this crash different from all other crashes? :wink: I think the severity and scope of this crash will be unprecedented. Consumer spending accounts for the vast majority of economic activity, and that essentially is being turned way down across the globe simultaneously. I think of it like a very large pipeline; in most recessions, a few to several countries are affected, so the shut-off valve closes only partially. As those economies recover, others slow, but the overall flow continues relatively unchanged. When the entire world feels the impact at the same time, the shut-off valve closes way down. Sure, we're still spending on food, toilet paper and hand sanitizers, but nobody is dining out, going to sporting even...
- Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:19 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298109
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Here in MA where we have a big outbreak, there is considerable evidence that people can't get tested, including reports from doctors; I personally know people who have symptoms who haven't been able to get tested. Researchers in academic labs at Harvard etc are being asked to donate viral RNA isolation kits to clinical labs in hospitals because they don't have enough kits to scale tests even though they have the other elements. I still can't figure out why the lack of testing symptomatic people is such a huge issue. If you have symptoms, then just stay away from other people. You are sick, with COVID-19, or something else. Just don't spread whatever it is you have. What extra help does testing provide? There is no cure -- you just need to ...
- Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:22 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298109
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
I still can't figure out why the lack of testing symptomatic people is such a huge issue. If you have symptoms, then just stay away from other people. You are sick, with COVID-19, or something else. Just don't spread whatever it is you have. What extra help does testing provide? There is no cure -- you just need to get through it and obviously get medical care if the symptoms are too severe to just self-quarantine at home. Because it would be helpful to really know who's sick and who isn't. Otherwise, people just do not stay at home. Or everybody with the slightest cough stays home. Not helpful either. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/marty-makary-on-coronavirus-in-the-us-183558545.html Well, if you are coughing a lot at work, then you shoul...
- Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:19 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Coronavirus and the market
- Replies: 4089
- Views: 392161
Re: Coronavirus and the market
Yup, he mentioned the 8 weeks in a televised interview on Friday morning, which is what led to the bloodbath in the market later in the day .... oh wait.peskypesky wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:26 am It's so odd that some people think this dead cat bounce means the market hit bottom and is going to go up from here.
We haven't even BEGUN to see the real epidemic here in the USA.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases with the the National Institutes of Health, just said that Americans should be prepared to stay home for AT LEAST 8 weeks. Two months or more? Ugh.
- Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:59 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298109
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Here in MA where we have a big outbreak, there is considerable evidence that people can't get tested, including reports from doctors; I personally know people who have symptoms who haven't been able to get tested. Researchers in academic labs at Harvard etc are being asked to donate viral RNA isolation kits to clinical labs in hospitals because they don't have enough kits to scale tests even though they have the other elements. I still can't figure out why the lack of testing symptomatic people is such a huge issue. If you have symptoms, then just stay away from other people. You are sick, with COVID-19, or something else. Just don't spread whatever it is you have. What extra help does testing provide? There is no cure -- you just need to ...
- Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:52 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298109
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Here in MA where we have a big outbreak, there is considerable evidence that people can't get tested, including reports from doctors; I personally know people who have symptoms who haven't been able to get tested. Researchers in academic labs at Harvard etc are being asked to donate viral RNA isolation kits to clinical labs in hospitals because they don't have enough kits to scale tests even though they have the other elements. I still can't figure out why the lack of testing symptomatic people is such a huge issue. If you have symptoms, then just stay away from other people. You are sick, with COVID-19, or something else. Just don't spread whatever it is you have. What extra help does testing provide? There is no cure -- you just need to ...
- Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:27 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298109
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Here in MA where we have a big outbreak, there is considerable evidence that people can't get tested, including reports from doctors; I personally know people who have symptoms who haven't been able to get tested. Researchers in academic labs at Harvard etc are being asked to donate viral RNA isolation kits to clinical labs in hospitals because they don't have enough kits to scale tests even though they have the other elements. I still can't figure out why the lack of testing symptomatic people is such a huge issue. If you have symptoms, then just stay away from other people. You are sick, with COVID-19, or something else. Just don't spread whatever it is you have. What extra help does testing provide? There is no cure -- you just need to ...
- Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:00 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Coronavirus and the market
- Replies: 4089
- Views: 392161
Re: Coronavirus and the market
I just don't get it. Isn't the further spread and possible shutdown of whole industries already priced in? I mean what's expectation from the market? That the amount of infected people will suddenly drop and we're back to the usual by May 2020? Hysterical people reading more hysterical headlines The seasonal flu has killed approximately 30,000+ more people than coronavirus so far THIS YEAR My new “buy signal” has officially become when robots have to shut down trading Lots of people that have overinflated returns from last year and beyond are just freaking out and trying to hold on for dear life to what they have ... while the accumulators should be pouncing (especially INT markets) Seasonal flu has case fatality rate of 0.1%. Covid-19 is ...
- Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:27 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
- Replies: 36221
- Views: 4650854
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Please recall that a common benchmark discussed on the forum is that you should be prepared for stock losses of 50% when determining your asset allocation. I should add that applies from any point the market is currently . It doesn't make any difference if the market has just lost 30% -- it has no memory. IF you aren't prepared for that magnitude of equity loss from today's market level, then you should be rethinking your policy allocation. It would be a mistake to think that because there has been a run of "tails" in the market price lately that we are due for a "head" to come up. It might turn out to be your head. Well, on that theory, you should change the advice to assume there will be a 100% stock loss at any given...
- Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:51 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Coronavirus and the market
- Replies: 4089
- Views: 392161
Re: Coronavirus and the market
How much growth is never going to happen though? If car sales are down 92% right now, those people aren't just never going to buy cars again correct? At some point, they'll buy cars and sales will be up 200% one month, correct? Unless this is so much worse than currently portrayed? A lot of the pent-up demand will be bought later. I wouldn't worry about Apple or car companies, etc. Like you said, someone who didn't buy a car in January will probably buy one in May if this has all blown over. Cruise ships and restaurants and airlines aren't going to get their money later though. Those weeks of lost revenue will not be made up. The problem the travel industry will have is, to some degree, the same problem that auto makers will have. Take for...
- Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:47 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Coronavirus and the market
- Replies: 4089
- Views: 392161
Re: Coronavirus and the market
Your denominator is I presume how many people tested positive. How many people actually have it is the question. Mortality rate = #death/#infected. You have some idea of the numerator. Literally no one knows the denominator. No serious person would come up with a mortality rate when so many people are not tested and so many are mildly symptomatic and presumably many are asymptomatic. It's silliness. 1. So you think that the death rate of the flu that is reported by the CDC and others has all infected people , including asymptomatic ones, in the denominator? I think you’re in for a surprise. 2. Regarding the no serious person coming up with a mortality rate, several estimates has been published in the Lancet and JAMA that put it at around 2...
- Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:37 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Coronavirus and the market
- Replies: 4089
- Views: 392161
Re: Coronavirus and the market
How much growth is never going to happen though? If car sales are down 92% right now, those people aren't just never going to buy cars again correct? At some point, they'll buy cars and sales will be up 200% one month, correct? Unless this is so much worse than currently portrayed? A lot of the pent-up demand will be bought later. I wouldn't worry about Apple or car companies, etc. Like you said, someone who didn't buy a car in January will probably buy one in May if this has all blown over. Cruise ships and restaurants and airlines aren't going to get their money later though. Those weeks of lost revenue will not be made up. The problem the travel industry will have is, to some degree, the same problem that auto makers will have. Take for...
- Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:50 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Coronavirus and the market
- Replies: 4089
- Views: 392161
- Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:21 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?
- Replies: 232
- Views: 27818
Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?
Corona virus has kills about 2700 people worldwide... The common flu has killed 16,000 people in the US alone just the season so far... You should judge your risk level versus your travel fun... You are comparing an established disease to the beginning of a pandemic. COVID-19 has killed 2,711 out of 80,421 people it infect. 3.37% fatalities. The flu killed 16,000 out of 29,000,000 people it infected in the US so far this flue season. 0.055% fatalities. That is 61 times more deaths per infection, and COVID-19 has a higher R0 than the flu(meaning it spreads more quickly). So, once COVID-19 has infected the same number of people as the flu, we can expect a lot more of them to be dead. Apples to oranges. You are comparing flu deaths to flu inf...
- Sat Jan 25, 2020 3:35 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Isn’t Inflation Much Larger Than 2%?
- Replies: 289
- Views: 23471
Re: Isn’t Inflation Much Larger Than 2%?
Fortunately standards of living tend to be correlated with gains in the stock market. So having some equities helps retirees keep up. I’ve heard this argument several times. But isn’t the assumption that stocks will outperform inflation already accounted for in most people’s retirement planning? Take the 4% rule, for example. It is a planning tool to determine how much you can safely withdraw each year in inflation adjusted terms. If you wanted to safely withdraw an amount that increased with living standards (not just inflation), then the 4% rule would not work. Instead of 4%, you might only be able to safely withdraw 2.5%. So if you’ve already based your retirement planning on the 4% rule, you can’t then argue that stocks will help your ...
- Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:21 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: What are you doing differently this year?
- Replies: 41
- Views: 4117
Re: What are you doing differently this year?
For me and my wife, financial milestones have become easier to achieve and I don't want to keep moving the goal posts anymore. We are on track to become FI within the next 5 years. So we have time to make plans for what's next. So this year, I would focus on new PR (personal records) for weight training: - Squat 320 lbs or 2x body weight - Deadlift 350 lbs. or 2.2x body weight - Bench press 275 lbs - Overhead press 185 lbs Admirable! Physical fitness is also part of our retirement goals because poor health wrecks FI. Sometimes it's unavoidable due to genetics or bad luck, but my spouse and I are committed to prevention. A few weeks ago, I restarted Stronglifts 5x5, which has an app I like. The program is those 4 lifts plus bent-over rows, ...
- Sat Jan 18, 2020 6:35 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Why retire?
- Replies: 267
- Views: 21023
Re: Why retire?
One important answer to this question is STRESS. Every job has some level of stress, some more than others. Even the requirement to be at work on time causes stress. Commuting is stressful. Management causes stress, and customers (patients) cause stress. Co-workers and colleagues can cause stress. Retirement is a freedom from all of these work-related stressors. Living a mostly stress free life is a wonderful existence. Stress is not only unpleasant, it is bad for your health, both mental and physical. I have been retired for 15 years and have absolutely no desire to ever go back to work. I think this is my main motivator. I'm a partner in BigLaw and am typically running numerous transactions, each in the 9 to 10 digit dollar amounts. I'm ...
- Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:43 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: What is your 2019 YTD Spending
- Replies: 36
- Views: 3243
Re: What is your 2019 YTD Spending
Only $1900 for everything but rent and utilities? Wow! Do you eat and drive a car?
I'm on the other end of the spectrum. Family of 4 in VHCOL. $148k (which was a little above budget, but included $10K for braces for two and a more expensive vacation than normal). $545K inclusive of taxes and health insurance.
- Wed Jan 01, 2020 1:59 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Recommended physical fitness websites/books/apps?
- Replies: 83
- Views: 9306
Re: Recommended physical fitness websites/books/apps?
Starting Strength by Mark Rippetoe --- the NY Times did an article on basic barbell exercises a number of years ago. This was their recommendation. Simple and it works. +1000 Rippetoe is the master and a no-BS dude. StartingStrength.com, and his books are: Starting Strength and Practical Programming for Strength Training. If you want weekly workouts you can follow delivered to your email box, check out Baker Barbell Club (Facebook site) by Rippetoe's protege, Andy Baker. Andy charges $27/mo and is a genius at barbell programming. At 50 I am lifting more than ever before following their philosophy (squatting and deadlifting in the 400s). YMMV. ^ I have used the basic 3x5 of the big 5 compound lifts 3 days a week for over 10 years now. I can...
- Tue Dec 31, 2019 11:49 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Share your net worth progression
- Replies: 4273
- Views: 1072017
Re: Share your net worth progression
End of year figures: 1997: -$53,000 (28; graduated law school) 1998: -$31,000 1999: $100,000 2000: $123,000 2001: $191,000 2002: $295,000 2003: $336,000 2004: $386,000 2005: $978,000 2006: $1,153,000 2007: $1,316,000 2008: $1,129,000 2009: $1,628,000 2010: $1,691,000 2011: $1,800,000 2012: $1,911,000 2013: $2,166,000 2014: $2,203,000 2015: $2,271,000 2016: $2,470,000 (owned two houses with two mortgages from 5/15 through 8/16, not a rental; ugh) 2017: $3,149,000 2018: $3,484,000 2019: $4,553,000 Includes home equity on paid-off house, currently around $1.1M. What happened in 2005? That was an incredible year considering the stock market didn't do much. Bought a house in SoCal on the upswing after the dot com recession. Based on comps at th...
- Tue Dec 31, 2019 11:25 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Share your net worth progression
- Replies: 4273
- Views: 1072017
Re: Share your net worth progression
End of year figures:
1997: -$53,000 (28; graduated law school)
1998: -$31,000
1999: $100,000
2000: $123,000
2001: $191,000
2002: $295,000
2003: $336,000
2004: $386,000
2005: $978,000
2006: $1,153,000
2007: $1,316,000
2008: $1,129,000
2009: $1,628,000
2010: $1,691,000
2011: $1,800,000
2012: $1,911,000
2013: $2,166,000
2014: $2,203,000
2015: $2,271,000
2016: $2,470,000 (owned two houses with two mortgages from 5/15 through 8/16, not a rental; ugh)
2017: $3,149,000
2018: $3,484,000
2019: $4,553,000
Includes home equity on paid-off house, currently around $1.1M.
1997: -$53,000 (28; graduated law school)
1998: -$31,000
1999: $100,000
2000: $123,000
2001: $191,000
2002: $295,000
2003: $336,000
2004: $386,000
2005: $978,000
2006: $1,153,000
2007: $1,316,000
2008: $1,129,000
2009: $1,628,000
2010: $1,691,000
2011: $1,800,000
2012: $1,911,000
2013: $2,166,000
2014: $2,203,000
2015: $2,271,000
2016: $2,470,000 (owned two houses with two mortgages from 5/15 through 8/16, not a rental; ugh)
2017: $3,149,000
2018: $3,484,000
2019: $4,553,000
Includes home equity on paid-off house, currently around $1.1M.
- Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:59 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
- Replies: 963
- Views: 103278
Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
I absolutely believe that to be true.... I just can't wrap my head around it. My mind is blown. I decided last November that I wanted an EV because of how much I spent on gas driving 20k miles a year, adding up to $5k a year at CA prices. I have excess solar so electric "fuel" is free for me. Over 5 years, I could save $30k in gas and lack of maintenance. I had to act quickly to get the tax credit in 2018. When I researched the Model 3, other than a few earlier complaints about quality control from some owners of late 2017 and early 2018 builds, I couldn't find hardly any reviews online where the owner didn't just love his/her M3. So yes, I took a leap of faith, put down my $2500 and took delivery a week later. My only M3 experie...
- Tue Dec 31, 2019 12:40 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
- Replies: 963
- Views: 103278
Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
:shock: :shock: :shock: It must be nice to be so rich that you don't even care about money. :) No, seriously... You spent $100k on a vehicle and you had never even ridden in one. I'm glad you love it. I never drove one or even saw one close up in person. I couldn't be happier with my M3. I absolutely believe that to be true.... I just can't wrap my head around it. My mind is blown. I decided last November that I wanted an EV because of how much I spent on gas driving 20k miles a year, adding up to $5k a year at CA prices. I have excess solar so electric "fuel" is free for me. Over 5 years, I could save $30k in gas and lack of maintenance. I had to act quickly to get the tax credit in 2018. When I researched the Model 3, other tha...
- Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:45 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
- Replies: 963
- Views: 103278
Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
Welcome to the club of risky purchasers! I knew you had it in you. Always enjoy your posts (especially the much needed sanity you bring to the 2% SWR crowd ... but that's another thread).HomerJ wrote: ↑Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:33 am My apologies to all...
I stand corrected....
I too have bought things sight unseen, like a laptop we just got for my son.
It's on a different scale, but it's the same thing...
With a return policy, it's not unreasonable...
Again, my apologies for over-reacting.
- Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:26 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
- Replies: 963
- Views: 103278
Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
I see so many Teslas now that they've lost their unique factor and I've come to feel that their styling is super boring. Other cars are moving to edgier designs, with radical cut lines and a blend bisects curves with angular slash lines. The Teslas seem to look dated now to me. They're just kind of round and plain. Aren't they due for a styling refresh by now? Or does Tesla not do styling changes every 5 years or so like everyone else? The Model 3 was first launched in late 2017, and with delivery bottlenecks, was not really on the road in large numbers until mid-2018. The Model X has been out maybe a year or so longer, so I don't think either are prime for a refresh quite yet. Granted, the Model S started around 2012, so maybe a fair crit...
- Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:05 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
- Replies: 963
- Views: 103278
Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
Interesting discussion about buying things sight unseen. I personally haven't found that "test driving" things has helped me make better buying decisions. About the only thing I spend money on is bikes. And the ones I've been happiest with and put the most miles on over the years are the ones I bought sight unseen. In my case that's because the sight-unseen approach allows me to over-analyze the purchase decision and get exactly what I need/want as opposed to falling in love with a paint scheme on a bike on the shop floor. Come to think of it, I bought my first Prius sight unseen--that was back in the days of $4 gas and 3 months waits to get your hands on one--test driving one wasn't even an option in my area. Best car I've ever ...
- Tue Dec 31, 2019 12:40 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
- Replies: 963
- Views: 103278
Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
With all the options you're looking at $60k+ for a fully loaded Tesla 3. You can get a certified pre-owned Porsche for that much. Doesn't make any sense to spend money on Tesla. Here is something Porsche can't do. I have a dual motor long range Model 3 that I bought a year ago. The 0-60 acceleration for that model is listed at 4.4s. Tesla just made available a $2k over the air software download that cuts that time to 3.9s. And based on tests of several owners over the past week, that number is more like 3.7s (or 3.5s with 1 foot rollout, which is how Motor Trend and other case testers measure acceleration). So for an additional 3% of my original purchase price, I instantly transformed my Model 3 from an already fast car to one of the faste...
- Tue Dec 31, 2019 12:27 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
- Replies: 963
- Views: 103278
Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
I had not only not driven a Tesla X, I had never been in any Tesla (S or Roadster). I put $2500 down on it because I liked what I had read about it. I did speak to Tesla owners, and they loved their Model S. It was around 2.5 years before the car became available. When I configured it, I had still not ridden in a Tesla. I picked up VIN 0002xx. :shock: :shock: :shock: It must be nice to be so rich that you don't even care about money. :) No, seriously... You spent $100k on a vehicle and you had never even ridden in one. I'm glad you love it. I never drove one or even saw one close up in person. I couldn't be happier with my M3. I absolutely believe that to be true.... I just can't wrap my head around it. My mind is blown. I decided last Nov...
- Mon Dec 30, 2019 11:50 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
- Replies: 963
- Views: 103278
Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
I never drove one or even saw one close up in person. I couldn't be happier with my M3.HomerJ wrote: ↑Mon Dec 30, 2019 11:18 pmTomatoTomahto wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:34 pmI had not only not driven a Tesla X, I had never been in any Tesla (S or Roadster). I put $2500 down on it because I liked what I had read about it. I did speak to Tesla owners, and they loved their Model S. It was around 2.5 years before the car became available. When I configured it, I had still not ridden in a Tesla. I picked up VIN 0002xx.
It must be nice to be so rich that you don't even care about money.
No, seriously... You spent $100k on a vehicle and you had never even ridden in one.
I'm glad you love it.
- Mon Dec 30, 2019 11:44 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
- Replies: 963
- Views: 103278
Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
With all the options you're looking at $60k+ for a fully loaded Tesla 3. You can get a certified pre-owned Porsche for that much. Doesn't make any sense to spend money on Tesla. Here is something Porsche can't do. I have a dual motor long range Model 3 that I bought a year ago. The 0-60 acceleration for that model is listed at 4.4s. Tesla just made available a $2k over the air software download that cuts that time to 3.9s. And based on tests of several owners over the past week, that number is more like 3.7s (or 3.5s with 1 foot rollout, which is how Motor Trend and other case testers measure acceleration). So for an additional 3% of my original purchase price, I instantly transformed my Model 3 from an already fast car to one of the faste...
- Sun Dec 29, 2019 1:54 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: White Coat Investor: Enough is Enough!
- Replies: 289
- Views: 35177
Re: White Coat Investor: Enough is Enough!
^^All of those are examples of things that would be hard to give up if the gravy stopped flowing. “It is better to have loved and lost...” Perhaps, but once you get used to those additional luxuries, you either have to increase your nest egg by 30x those annual costs to sustain them into retirement or be ok giving them up when you retire. That's a personal choice, but we choose not to expand our expenses that much as income rises so we neither have to save more nor give things up upon retirement. A few years ago, we spent 20% of our gross (excluding taxes), now we spend around 11%. Part of that is that we paid off the mortgage in 2018, but a lot is due to increased income without much increase in expenses. I want to retire in a few years a...
- Sun Dec 29, 2019 1:30 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: White Coat Investor: Enough is Enough!
- Replies: 289
- Views: 35177
Re: White Coat Investor: Enough is Enough!
^^All of those are examples of things that would be hard to give up if the gravy stopped flowing. “It is better to have loved and lost...” Perhaps, but once you get used to those additional luxuries, you either have to increase your nest egg by 30x those annual costs to sustain them into retirement or be ok giving them up when you retire. That's a personal choice, but we choose not to expand our expenses that much as income rises so we neither have to save more nor give things up upon retirement. A few years ago, we spent 20% of our gross (excluding taxes), now we spend around 11%. Part of that is that we paid off the mortgage in 2018, but a lot is due to increased income without much increase in expenses. I want to retire in a few years a...
- Sat Dec 28, 2019 1:01 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: White Coat Investor: Enough is Enough!
- Replies: 289
- Views: 35177
Re: White Coat Investor: Enough is Enough!
Top top marginal bracket in California is closer to 51% -- 37% Federal, 13% State, Medicare, SSI.... Getting to 45% total taxes is just a question of how far into 7 figures your W2 stretches....but it is not that uncommon in CA in IPO outcome years etc. In CA you would have to earn about $2.9 million/yr with no deductions to hit 45% and $10 million/yr to get close to 50% While it is possible, even for this forum it would be pretty rare event. The previous posts referenced typical annual income less than $1mill so don’t think this was originally about once in a company IPO events. Don't forget property taxes. I think one can purchase a ~$1.5M house on a (pre-tax) income of around $250,000. I think. In California, that house would have a pro...
- Sat Dec 28, 2019 10:41 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: LETFs at TDAmeritrade
- Replies: 5
- Views: 604
Re: LETFs at TDAmeritrade
I hold part of my HEDGEFUNDIE excellent adventure (UPRO & TMF) in a taxable brokerage account at Chase. I was planning to move some ETFs over to TDA to pick up a brokerage bonus, which would include moving the LETFs. I first checked to make sure UPRO & TMF were available at TDA. I found that they are available, but a note states that the LETFs are subject to margin nrequirements. I don't get this as I am not leveraging anything -- the LETF is doing the leveraging internally. Under what circumstances would TDA subject me to a margin call? The worst that can happen is the LETFs go to zero and I lose all of my funds, but I can never owe more than my LETF investment. Am I missing something here? No you can't get a margin call unless yo...
- Sat Dec 28, 2019 10:18 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: LETFs at TDAmeritrade
- Replies: 5
- Views: 604
Re: LETFs at TDAmeritrade
BumpSCV_Lawyer wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:17 pm I hold part of my HEDGEFUNDIE excellent adventure (UPRO & TMF) in a taxable brokerage account at Chase. I was planning to move some ETFs over to TDA to pick up a brokerage bonus, which would include moving the LETFs. I first checked to make sure UPRO & TMF were available at TDA. I found that they are available, but a note states that the LETFs are subject to margin nrequirements.
I don't get this as I am not leveraging anything -- the LETF is doing the leveraging internally. Under what circumstances would TDA subject me to a margin call? The worst that can happen is the LETFs go to zero and I lose all of my funds, but I can never owe more than my LETF investment.
Am I missing something here?
- Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:17 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: LETFs at TDAmeritrade
- Replies: 5
- Views: 604
LETFs at TDAmeritrade
I hold part of my HEDGEFUNDIE excellent adventure (UPRO & TMF) in a taxable brokerage account at Chase. I was planning to move some ETFs over to TDA to pick up a brokerage bonus, which would include moving the LETFs. I first checked to make sure UPRO & TMF were available at TDA. I found that they are available, but a note states that the LETFs are subject to margin nrequirements.
I don't get this as I am not leveraging anything -- the LETF is doing the leveraging internally. Under what circumstances would TDA subject me to a margin call? The worst that can happen is the LETFs go to zero and I lose all of my funds, but I can never owe more than my LETF investment.
Am I missing something here?
I don't get this as I am not leveraging anything -- the LETF is doing the leveraging internally. Under what circumstances would TDA subject me to a margin call? The worst that can happen is the LETFs go to zero and I lose all of my funds, but I can never owe more than my LETF investment.
Am I missing something here?
- Thu Dec 26, 2019 9:37 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: White Coat Investor: Enough is Enough!
- Replies: 289
- Views: 35177
Re: White Coat Investor: Enough is Enough!
Marginal rate is 52.4%: Federal: 37% State: 12.3% (CA) Medicare: 2.9% (self-employed) Obamacare Medicare surtax: 0.9% Subtract: 0.7% (half of Medicare is deductible against fed and state taxes) 37 + 12.3 + 2.9 + 0.9 - 0.7 = 52.4% It’s a bit worse if you have investment income, because dollar for dollar above a certain level you start triggering a higher tax rate and then the Medicare surtax on your investment income. On a marginal basis you can get above 55%. I don’t know anyone who cares about the blended rate being lower - decisions about investments and work hours are made at the margin. Marginal rate is definitely going to be the most useful for investment planning as well as income and even deductions. The total federal (and state) pe...