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PDX_Traveler

Hi experts, I am 25 years old and would like invest for long term (at least 5+ years) - more for growth, not retirement . I have cash in Fidelity ready to invest. I have emergency money elsewhere so I am not dependent on this money at least for next 5 years but would love to see it grow, may be use...

PDX_Traveler

What if you're a software tech employee with keen insights into trends, future tech, and vaporware? Everyone thinks their insights are keen... [...] So at what point can a stock-picking portfolio keep outperforming the market to be determined to have some alpha? 5 years? 10? 20? At some point one h...

PDX_Traveler

You sound like a candidate for a Vanguard LifeStrategy fund with a conservative asset allocation. See link: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VASIX There really isn't such a thing as "no risk". Even cash is subject to inflation risk, which can reduce your purchasing power...

PDX_Traveler

Hi. 1. How much cash do you have expressed as a percentage of your portfolio? 2. How much cash do you have expressed as a multiple of average monthly expenses? 3. Where approximately are you in your investing life, re: accumulation phase, retirement imminent, post-retirement? 1. About 0.5% currentl...

PDX_Traveler

I am 40 years old and my allocations are currently: 100% equities / 0% bonds. This has worked well for me, but... to each his/her own. [[.. I am trusting my gut. ]] Whatever your gut tells you to do.... you should trust yourself above anything else you read in this forum (and I love this forum -- i...

PDX_Traveler

MJS wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:49 pm If if if they're open ...

[[...
]]
See a play at Ashford.

[[..]]

You meant Ashland, of course

. I believe the OSF plans are still fluid - they currently state 'second half of 2021' for potential live on stage performances, but July would be dicey to plan for I think.

PDX_Traveler

to the OP, I'm not saying information shouldn't be accurate (it should be) but is there a reason you're focusing so closely on the daily price/NAV of your mutual funds? Hmm, I'm glad somebody does, as a check against possible "errors".... because I know I don't! Quis custodiet ipsos custo...

PDX_Traveler

“An optimist by nature, Wood nonetheless offers some unsettling predictions for the next five years. She expects a broad swath of large industries—banking, energy, transportation, health care—to be disrupted by technological change, with many workers displaced. The result, she believes, is that eco...

PDX_Traveler

I just read this article from the Financial Times at ft.com (paywall): https://www.ft.com/content/8e7379c5-9324-4d31-9fcb-fd1e7bc621b0 "China’s support for US dollar can no longer be relied upon" interesting notes there stating that, e.g. upto 30% of the rise in the USD and about three qua...

PDX_Traveler

[..] I appreciate your advice and totally agree. Ideally, I would have a sizable and untouchable EF. However, living in a non-ideal world, I have to improvise a bit. Re: FOMO - it's not that I'm feeling FOMO in general; however, I would very much prefer to recover, at least, partially, my losses in...

PDX_Traveler

Hi Madsinger, Is the Hot Hands portfolio the strategy the Dan Wiener uses (or used to employ) in his newsletter: sticking with the current best performing Vanguard fund until that fund is outperformed by another and then switching to that one on an annual basis and so on and so on……..? If so, it’s ...

PDX_Traveler

[...] Buffet knows every finance measurement in the books but is now the fool compared to people who don't even understand the airlines they are buying & being rewarded for... not to mention the global recession/depression and in a pandemic without a cure/vaccine. "Buffett is an idiot"...

PDX_Traveler

I agree the Fed has boosted Wall Street confidence. Main Street? Not so much. If anything the Fed's actions have led to even more of a Wall Street / Main Street divide. Savers have seen their already paltry interest rates reduced while speculators have reaped outsized gains. Absolutely. It almost f...

PDX_Traveler

260chrisb wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:45 pm
David Jay wrote: ↑Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:51 pm Build a chipmunk swimming pool.
This is great advice. I refer to mine as the Chipmunk Aquatic Center.

Or put a toll-gate sign next to the drain. Chipmunks will go crazy trying to use Google Maps to re-route around toll-ways and get lost...

PDX_Traveler

The market believes the future will be better than today. And there are a lot of good reasons to think that. [..] 5) Truthfully, lots of layoffs can be good for profitability; and therefore "the market". What surprises me, is how many people sold/paniced/are grief stricken about what the ...

PDX_Traveler

OP, When you asked the wrong question, you will never get the right answer! The wrong question is "Whether there will be a depression?". The right question is "Are you prepared?". [..] We have a fair amount of capitulation now. More will come. [...] KlangFool I can agree with mo...

PDX_Traveler

I always thought inflation was caused by a wage-price spiral (upwards). I just cannot see significantly rising wages in the near future or beyond. There is too much productivity improvement from technology. And labor unions are still fading away fast. And prices of energy and commodities are flat t...

PDX_Traveler

I think Buffett is always bullish on the US economy..... he doesn’t try to predict near term stuff, but long term he always says bet on America, or something like that. How many folks here think the S&P will be lower ten years from now than it is today? Or think US GDP will be less than it is t...

PDX_Traveler

[..].. Where I live and the industry I’m in are inconsequential. Americans aren’t forced to adhere to a view of their freedoms and their physical and mental health based on their zip codes. This is about Americans basic desire to be free to do what they want to do, which, yes, includes staying at h...

PDX_Traveler

Just rhetoric. No one can sway public opinion enough to materially move markets. The market is rational and forward looking. Questioning it is a fools errand. Just accept what it gives and takes. The market is hardly 'rational'... We just have to remember that the market behaves like a voting machi...

PDX_Traveler

One would generally be wrong. For the vast, vast, vast majority of investments discussed on this site, including Vanguard and Fidelity retirement date mutual funds, one could sell as much as they wanted for cash in a day at roughly the same price as when they decided to make the trade. For the OP t...

PDX_Traveler

Lots of more experienced and wiser folks than me on this forum who can give you excellent advice. For my part, I'd observe that VTTVX is about 40/60 bonds/stocks, and VTWNX is closer to 50/50 bonds/stocks (I assume the Fidelity 2025 fund has similar allocations). VTTVX shows down about 8% YTD, so if...

PDX_Traveler

Any comments about Buffett's speech so far? Coupled with some social commentary about our flaws That sounds a bit too 'glass-half-empty'-ish, IMO. I took his point to be more: 2020-America is so much better than 1790-America because of the continuing progress we make. Trust in that progress as a co...

PDX_Traveler

Any comments about Buffett's speech so far? Comments about the reports from even 2019 (Sam Nunn et al) about lack of pandemic preparedness etc - his point being, it is always hard to plan for the '25-sigma' type event. Other than - don't play with margin (or debt in general?), plus have the faith t...

PDX_Traveler

A 40% drop could hit by next year , FACT or FICTION? ============================================= What is the strategy to protect from 40% drop ? Thanks for sharing. To address your question - I think you already know a number of strategies to 'protect' from a 40% drop. Keep money you absolutely n...

PDX_Traveler

Not to prolong this line of discussion too far, but looking at references to Jean-Paul Rodriguez's stages of financial manias https://transportgeography.org/?page_id=9035 and the graph there: https://transportgeography.org/wp-content/uploads/stages_bubble.png and acknowledging that while history doe...

PDX_Traveler

[..] The market seems to share your optimism, as do I. Charlie Munger appeared to me to not share it to the same degree. Time will tell. The market, to paraphrase Benjamin Graham, leans towards manic depressive behavior. Mr. Munger doesn't come across as someone you'd characterize with those words...

PDX_Traveler

[..] What happened to Warren "be greedy when others are fearful" Buffet? :confused Who knows, maybe others are not fearful enough? Also, perhaps like the Munger comments upstream suggest - maybe they are just not certain how this will turn out yet. Being greedy is perhaps good, but chargi...

PDX_Traveler

Taumu1988 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 17, 2020 3:32 pm Thanks for the replies and input guys. I appreciate it.

FWIW, we're just holding on to the money outside the 529 since we're likely to incur expenses for Fall '20 anyway - so we can offset the amounts we need to withdraw from the 529 then. Avoids the hassle of re-depositing etc...

PDX_Traveler

I think this should give some perspective to the market timing discussions... "I would say basically we’re like the captain of a ship when the worst typhoon that’s ever happened comes. We just want to get through the typhoon, and we’d rather come out of it with a whole lot of liquidity. We’re n...

PDX_Traveler

Now? After a few weeks once the East Coast has greater signs of improvement? After a few months when most US cities have had their surge? In many months when other countries are past their surge? Right before the vaccine is available in over a year? What I understand is that: 1) No one can accurate...

PDX_Traveler

Responding to question as to what the funds are: swisx is schwab international index fund swtsx is schwab total stock market fund swagx is schwab us aggregate bond fund maybe put into your original post so folks new to the thread don't have to guess. click the pencil icon and edit. based upon the l...

PDX_Traveler

[..] I think you misread the first post. Intermediate term treasuries outperformed total stock market from 1/1/2000 to 3/31/2020. 20 years and 3 months. I don't think anyone expects that to happen again, but it is a sobering statistic that over a 20 year period a risk free asset outperformed a very...

PDX_Traveler

I am seeking some advice on which is the better approach: We put some of the college tuition money for our children needed over the next 2.5 years into VTEB tax exempt bond fund (reason for the ETF at the time was that this money was in Merrill Edge, and I wanted to stick with Vanguard ETFs/funds, ...

PDX_Traveler

This title inspires to understand a generalization of Schrodinger's cat paradox by including a mouse. Options would be: 1. is cat alive along with the mouse? 2. is cat alive but mouse is dead (more likely) 3. is mouse alive with a dead cat (quantum mechanics will say not impossible) 4. mouse and ca...

PDX_Traveler

What is VTEB? VTEB - Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF That is a good fund and one that I have looked at in the past. We presently have Intermediate Term Tax Exempt (i.e. the active fund). I would stay the course and perhaps add to it. Muni bonds can get a little volatile but at the end of the day the m...

PDX_Traveler

Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond Fund (VTEB) is down 13% year to date . AA rated (average), same as VBTLX, and shorter duration. The title of this thread is correct. VWIUX is down less. Maybe the ETF will eventually match? "maybe" is the right word. that's the problem. Would the ETF, VTEB be a ta...

PDX_Traveler

Wiggums wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:24 pm
abuss368 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:22 pm What is VTEB?
VTEB - Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF

Thanks - edited to add that in subject

PDX_Traveler

I am seeking some advice on which is the better approach: We put some of the college tuition money for our children needed over the next 2.5 years into VTEB tax exempt bond fund (reason for the ETF at the time was that this money was in Merrill Edge, and I wanted to stick with Vanguard ETFs/funds, a...

PDX_Traveler

So much uncertainty has been introduced that it seems rational for the market to be down as much as it is. In terms of its effects on everyday life, the impact of coronavirus is already greater than I saw during the global financial crisis. I don't know how long the economy can keep going with ever...

PDX_Traveler

This is a virus that leaves 80% of people infected feeling fine, 20% of people ill enough to need medical attention, and of that 20% - almost all of them will live. Why bother with facts? Especially when the overall mortality rate will be even lower as the confirmed cases total increases - since mo...

PDX_Traveler

Roth 403b does sound like a good idea, but it might take some traditional 403b to make it all work perfectly if there is another gift of appreciated shares. She actually has some money left from the initial 25K gift. There will be no more gifts this year. Bank of Dad is now permanently shuttered. B...

PDX_Traveler

I won't say I'm excited, more optimistic that I'm buying in at "once in a decade" sell off. I've made a wish list of stocks that I've always wanted to buy, but they've always seem to be too expensive. But since hitting correction territory and more, I've been nibbling away at them with my...

PDX_Traveler

I am going to be cautious. I am definitely not going to be scare. Flu kills more people than the coronavirus so far . The new language is the real issue. [..] But I do know one thing--I don't recall there ever being an influenza outbreak on a cruise ship that killed six people. If you want to compa...

PDX_Traveler

(Edited, to add URL to the article in question - thanks for the suggestions/advice!) I was reflecting on this article in the Washington Post, extract quoted below (of course, I do think it is more general human behavior than "Americans" only): https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/03...

PDX_Traveler

Yes, it's the former layout. Took 5 minutes for the site to log into my accounts Friday and the old format appeared. Maybe Vanguard had so much customer volume it had to revert back to the old format. I like the new format much better. Hm. For me, I actually like the new (i.e. the "old" f...

PDX_Traveler

In fairness, people have largely been answering questions OP did not ask, and in fact that OP specifically stated OP was not asking. At least that's how it started. Admittedly, it's gotten muddy. :beer Exactly. :beer I get that this is a forum, and when you ask a question in a forum, you're going t...

PDX_Traveler

When I hear "stable value" funds, I think 24 month CD. If you need your investments to grow larger than they are today, and keep up with inflation during your retirement, stable value funds aren't the answer. Sigh. I don't know how many times I need to say this...I am 10+ years away from ...

PDX_Traveler

With the recent dip caused by the coronavirus, it got me thinking should I have invested 100% of contribution every time or set aside some percentage (not sure how much) in the money market so that more stocks could have been bought during the dip. By the time next contribution is made from a paych...

PDX_Traveler

Stage and Age. Apathy? [...] I know ultimately -- WE control what comes next. I guess we don;t feel uncomfortable enough or the pull enough to seek something else. Happens all the time. I find it sad when people complain about their jobs, when it's ultimately within their control to change things t...

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