Search found 596 matches

by CULater
Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Small-cap Value Funds ??
Replies: 55
Views: 4930

Re: International Small-cap Value Funds ??

There is also TLTD/TLTE which is flexshares' small cap value for developed and emerging markets respectively. About 1 billion in assets for developed, 600 MM for emerging. Expense ratio is pretty reasonable for what it is. Just checked out TLTD and very weird, it holds a 20% "cash component". What ...
by CULater
Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?
Replies: 35
Views: 2439

Re: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?

When I read about factors, and really investing ideas in general, I get an "Alice in Wonderland" feeling. Factors are real, but they can "disappear" especially when a lot of people are looking at them. Then they can "reappear" when everyone has gone on to other things and forgotten about them. Since...
by CULater
Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?
Replies: 35
Views: 2439

Re: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?

... Factor investors are making intelligent bets founded on rational analysis that certain systematic departures from the market will beat the market... It's not quite that, IMO. One claim made by factor investors is that you can use factors to tailor your portfolio asset allocation to achieve cert...
by CULater
Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?
Replies: 35
Views: 2439

Re: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?

...as TSM increasingly becomes a big bet on large cap growth at current valuations... NO. IT. ISN'T. Actually it is. TSM is 70% SP500. Look at TSM and SP500 they are basically the same returns, risk, and likely correlation coefficient. The 70% is such a large portion of TSM the 20% in mid, 7% in sm...
by CULater
Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Figuring needed value of lump sum to provide given withdrawal rate
Replies: 11
Views: 637

Re: Figuring needed value of lump sum to provide given withdrawal rate

Calculate based on today dollars by using a real return rate (actual return minus inflation rate), and keep the withdrawal amount the same. Be careful to use the geometric difference between the nominal return and the inflation rate, not the arithmetic difference. For (constant) nominal return rate...
by CULater
Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2017 HR Block tax federal tax update won't install
Replies: 10
Views: 597

Re: 2017 HR Block tax federal tax update won't install

At least it sounds like it is doing something while I sit there staring at it. It would be nice if there was some sort of indicator that the update is actually functioning and not just hung up. I've started and stopped it several times now because it looks hung up each time. Guess I'll let it sit an...
by CULater
Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2017 HR Block tax federal tax update won't install
Replies: 10
Views: 597

Re: 2017 HR Block tax federal tax update won't install

I had the same issue where it was stuck on "gathering information." I think it's scanning the disk during this time, so just give it a while. I let it sit on both of my Macs for an hour, and it eventually started installing. Good luck! Yes, that's exactly what it's doing. An hour??? Never had this ...
by CULater
Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Figuring needed value of lump sum to provide given withdrawal rate
Replies: 11
Views: 637

Re: Figuring needed value of lump sum to provide given withdrawal rate

The correct function to determine the needed present value is the "present value" function, named PV in spreadsheet software. For the values you gave, having spreadsheet software evaluate PV(0.03, 20, -30000) returns 446,324. Thanks. Now, what if I want to take inflation into account? The dollar am...
by CULater
Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2017 HR Block tax federal tax update won't install
Replies: 10
Views: 597

2017 HR Block tax federal tax update won't install

I keep trying to run the Federal update just issued for my 2017 HR Block software on Mac and it just chokes and sits there looking at me. Anybody else having this problem?
by CULater
Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Figuring needed value of lump sum to provide given withdrawal rate
Replies: 11
Views: 637

Re: Figuring needed value of lump sum to provide given withdrawal rate

The correct function to determine the needed present value is the "present value" function, named PV in spreadsheet software. For the values you gave, having spreadsheet software evaluate PV(0.03, 20, -30000) returns 446,324. Thanks. Now, what if I want to take inflation into account? The dollar am...
by CULater
Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Figuring needed value of lump sum to provide given withdrawal rate
Replies: 11
Views: 637

Figuring needed value of lump sum to provide given withdrawal rate

Wonder what the correct function is to determine the needed present value of a lump sum that will provide a fixed withdrawal amount assuming a fixed rate of return over 20 years? For example, what lump sum value would be needed to provide a $30K annual withdrawal for 20 years, assuming that the lump...
by CULater
Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Senior seeking info about obtaining mortgage for condo purchase
Replies: 10
Views: 709

Re: Senior seeking info about obtaining mortgage for condo purchase

We did this when we bought our retirement home 14 months ago. Not every lending institution does asset depletion mortgages so you have to look around more. I found two mortgage brokers who did these mortgages as well as our regular bank - BofA. We ended up going with BofA as they had the best rate ...
by CULater
Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?
Replies: 35
Views: 2439

Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?

Commodities have gotten crushed with higher volatility than stocks. Not only have the returns been terrible but the correlation benefits were lost during the crisis as well as commodities crashed right alongside stocks. The lifecycle of a novel investment strategy looks something like this: - Early...
by CULater
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Senior seeking info about obtaining mortgage for condo purchase
Replies: 10
Views: 709

Re: Senior seeking info about obtaining mortgage for condo purchase

delamer wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:17 pm
I don’t have any direct experience, but there are ways to use your assets to qualify:

https://www.kiplinger.com/article/retir ... tgage.html
Thank you. That article was very helpful.
by CULater
Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Senior seeking info about obtaining mortgage for condo purchase
Replies: 10
Views: 709

Senior seeking info about obtaining mortgage for condo purchase

I'm considering buying a small condo in Phoenix area, about $100K. Would like to purchase with a mortgage. I'm a senior citizen, retired. Outside of SS, all my financial assets are in retirement accounts. Being older and without the income from employment, just how hard is it to obtain a mortgage? I...
by CULater
Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.
Replies: 58
Views: 6224

Re: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.

And then there's this from Wade Pfau: An important and frequently studied question for retirees is: what is the optimal asset allocation during retirement? This article provides a brief but simple message that conservative asset allocations in retirement are quite acceptable after all. A wide range ...
by CULater
Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How diversified are you really with cap weighted foreign markets?
Replies: 37
Views: 1993

Re: How diversified are you really with cap weighted foreign markets?

Looks like Samsung has about a 1% weight in VEU, and Technology has about 10% weight. Roughly, about 10% of the Tech weight in international is represented by one company and by one country. About 9% is represented by Taiwan Semiconductor. Two companies and two Asian countries account for nearly 20...
by CULater
Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How diversified are you really with cap weighted foreign markets?
Replies: 37
Views: 1993

Re: How diversified are you really with cap weighted foreign markets?

Looks like Samsung has about a 1% weight in VEU, and Technology has about 10% weight. Roughly, about 10% of the Tech weight in international is represented by one company and by one country. About 9% is represented by Taiwan Semiconductor. Two companies and two Asian countries account for nearly 20%...
by CULater
Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Honda CRV - first oil change full synthetic?
Replies: 72
Views: 4536

Re: New Honda CRV - first oil change full synthetic?

From the announcement of the 1.5L Turbo: Honda News wrote: The Maintenance Minder™ system monitors operating conditions such as oil and coolant temperature along with engine speed to determine the proper service intervals. Depending on operating conditions, oil change intervals can be extended to a...
by CULater
Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How diversified are you really with cap weighted foreign markets?
Replies: 37
Views: 1993

Re: How diversified are you really with cap weighted foreign markets?

Samsung has risen around 55 percent for 2017 and this holding accounts for more than 25 percent of EWY. When this fund fell 13 percent in 2015, a big reason was that Samsung was down 7 percent. What’s striking about these statistics is not only that these countries have concentrated holdings but th...
by CULater
Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How diversified are you really with cap weighted foreign markets?
Replies: 37
Views: 1993

How diversified are you really with cap weighted foreign markets?

Table shows how heavily concentrated foreign cap-weighted markets are in just a few companies. Holding a foreign cap weighted index fund doesn't give you as much diversification as you thought. Only U.S. and Japan have less than 44% weighting in the top 10 holdings. https://s26.postimg.org/4jds54qpl...
by CULater
Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 17687

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

From Wade Pfau: An important and frequently studied question for retirees is: what is the optimal asset allocation during retirement? This article provides a brief but simple message that conservative asset allocations in retirement are quite acceptable after all. A wide range of asset allocations t...
by CULater
Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 17687

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

W Buffet has won the game long time ago but he is till playing the game. How to explain? I don't think you've read Larry Swedroe's memo. Those who choose to stay in the game do so based on the Need, Willingness, or Ability to do so. Mr. Buffett has #2 and #3 but not #1. Some of us don't have #1, #2...
by CULater
Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 103
Views: 10226

Re: Small cap value vs. total market?

Chart showing cumulative returns from 1972-2017: Blue Line: 28% SCV + 72% 5Yr Treasuries Red Line: 60% Total U.S. Stocks + 40% 5Yr Treasuries Yellow Line: 100% 5Yr Treasuries https://s26.postimg.org/paitjvhix/SCV_TSM_IT_returns.png As you can see, the blue line returns (28% SCV/72% Treasuries) match...
by CULater
Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 17687

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

There's nothing more on target than the quote from Warren Buffett upthread: to make money they didn’t have and didn’t need, they risked what they did have and did need, and that’s foolish . In my way of thinking, it's of critical importance that individuals make a determination of "what they have an...
by CULater
Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?
Replies: 33
Views: 2628

Re: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?

Rather than doing the "glidepath shuffle", perhaps one should consider the "two-step tango" portfolio strategy, or something like that. Thinking of the glidepath as a strategy for systematically reducing portfolio risk over time seems to be an illusion to me. As other posters indicated, the glidepa...
by CULater
Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 17687

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

It seems to me that he takes a different tack in the WSJ article vs. his book "Ages of the Investor." In the former he seems to suggest it's OK to allocate to stocks in your distribution portfolio, and in the latter he argues that you should first establish a safe Liability Matching Portfolio and on...
by CULater
Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?
Replies: 33
Views: 2628

Re: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?

Decreasing equity risk exposure reduces the cone of uncertainty around future outcomes. Most investors are risk averse, and they tend to have decreasing utility for additional wealth as wealth increases. As such, reducing downside outcomes at the expense of expected return becomes more optimal. I a...
by CULater
Mon Jan 08, 2018 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 17687

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

Here's Bernstein's article from the WSJ from 1/19/15 https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-tell-if-your-retirement-nest-egg-is-big-enough-1421726456 Lots of good posts in this thread but I thought it made sense to at least post what Bernstein was recommending (and, no, it wasn't getting out of stocks...
by CULater
Mon Jan 08, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?
Replies: 33
Views: 2628

Re: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?

I think there is a disconnect here. I think of my bond/fixed income in term of the number of years of annual expense. Then, I used that to determine my AA. For example, when my portfolio size is the 25X annual expense, 60/40 gives me 10 years of expense in fixed income. It is safe enough for me. Th...
by CULater
Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?
Replies: 33
Views: 2628

Re: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?

Correlation is not what people are trying to avoid by decreasing exposure to equities. People are trying to lessen the magnitude of the fluctuations in their portfolio value. One could create two products that are both perfectly correlated to the market (ignoring inflation momentarily to make a ver...
by CULater
Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 17687

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

W Buffet has won the game long time ago but he is till playing the game. How to explain? I don't think you've read Larry Swedroe's memo. Those who choose to stay in the game do so based on the Need, Willingness, or Ability to do so. Mr. Buffett has #2 and #3 but not #1. Some of us don't have #1, #2...
by CULater
Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Surefire best investment advice for 2018
Replies: 3
Views: 695

Surefire best investment advice for 2018

> You won’t be able to distinguish between luck and skill in anyone’s investment results. People will be right for the wrong reasons and wrong for the right reasons but markets don’t care about these things over shorter time frames. Over any given year a great process can produce subpar results whi...
by CULater
Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 17687

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

I wouldn't get too hung up on trying to discount CAPE. That's just one example of many that ought be be telling folks that this market is stretched. Historically, when CAPE was above 20, the next 10 year's returns varied between -1.38% and 12.07%, as shown in the table below, but most of the return...
by CULater
Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?
Replies: 33
Views: 2628

Re: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?

Just for passing the time, I did an analysis with PV of sticking with a 60/40 stock-treasury annually-rebalanced allocation from 1972-2011 (40 years), staring with $1000 and making equal inflation-adjusted annual $1000 contributions over that time. I ended up with $876,025 having experienced a worst...
by CULater
Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Honda CRV - first oil change full synthetic?
Replies: 72
Views: 4536

Re: New Honda CRV - first oil change full synthetic?

I'm wondering how the Maintenance Minder in the vehicle actually works. Does it actually "measure" the condition of the oil in some way, or is it just set on some sort of computerized algorithm? It doesn't measure the oil in any way, there's an algorithm that is supposed to calculate the lifetime b...
by CULater
Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?
Replies: 33
Views: 2628

Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?

As I understand the "glidepath" or "target" asset allocation strategy, the idea is to dial down the riskiness of one's portfolio by gradually replacing the riskier equity allocation with an allocation to safer assets such as bonds oner time. A basic version of this idea is Bogle's "Age in Bonds" (AI...
by CULater
Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Honda CRV - first oil change full synthetic?
Replies: 72
Views: 4536

Re: New Honda CRV - first oil change full synthetic?

FWIW, there are two kinds of Mobil 1 synthetic, the ordinary stuff, and EP which Mobil rates for 15,000 miles. The EP has more additives. If I buy the 5 qt containers at Walmart, the difference in price is $3 or $4. When a vehicle is still in warranty, I have the oil changed at the dealer on the sc...
by CULater
Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 17687

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

My simple plan is to assume that my portfolio will just keep up with inflation (zero real growth) and determine as best I can how much I need to make it to age 95, with an untouched reserve of sufficient size to "self-insure" the cost of expensive assisted living and long term care for at least 3 ye...
by CULater
Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can you ever win the game?
Replies: 50
Views: 5147

Re: Can you ever win the game?

If, at any point, a bull market pushes your portfolio over the LMP “magic number” of 20 to 25 times your annual cash-flow needs beyond Social Security and pensions, you’ve won the investing game. Why keep playing? Start bailing. Bernstein, William J. The Ages of the Investor: A Critical Look at Lif...
by CULater
Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 17687

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

I can't believe that with all these wealthy Bogleheads around that I seem to be the only one who thinks I have enough to get by without betting on stocks, and probably even handle the high cost of assisted living and long-term care if it comes to that. And I don't exactly think I'm wealthy. What are...
by CULater
Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 17687

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

I wouldn't get too hung up on trying to discount CAPE. That's just one example of many that ought be be telling folks that this market is stretched. Nobody can say it will crash, nobody can predict the future. But let's stop whistling past the graveyard, folks. Getting older sucks, but the one part ...
by CULater
Sun Jan 07, 2018 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 17687

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

By the numbers I have won the game but most of my portfolio is still in stocks. The underlying assumption here is that bonds have no risk. That is not always true. The two biggest risks for bonds are inflation and longevity risk, finding out in the 4th quarter of the game that you hadn't won it in ...
by CULater
Sun Jan 07, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 17687

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

Quoting the good doctor himself: If, at any point, a bull market pushes your portfolio over the LMP “magic number” of 20 to 25 times your annual cash-flow needs beyond Social Security and pensions, you’ve won the investing game. Why keep playing? Start bailing. Bernstein, William J. The Ages of the ...
by CULater
Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 17687

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

I guess I don't understand why someone who has "won the game" would be taking a gradualist approach to reducing their equity allocation, especially in the face of the obvious high market valuations. If you don't need to have anything in stocks or need a much lower percentage than you currently have,...
by CULater
Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Honda CRV - first oil change full synthetic?
Replies: 72
Views: 4536

Re: New Honda CRV - first oil change full synthetic?

The other thing that was a little "off" about this oil change is that the Maintenance Minder codes (and Owner's Manual) indicate that only the oil is to be changed, with no filter change. This dealer automatically did a filter change also. Now, I preferred that anyway but the dealer wasn't following...
by CULater
Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 17687

Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

With CAPE at the second highest level in history and the U.S. stock market acting bubblicious these days, I think it is a good time for older investors to heed Dr. Bernstein's advice: "If you've won the game, stop playing." Nobody can predict what the market will do and accumulators should probably ...