Search found 2826 matches

by CULater
Wed Jun 17, 2020 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 381
Views: 56675

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

For the longest period for which data is available using Portfolio Visualizer 1978-2020: Portfolio 1: Golden Butterfly (20% TSM, 20% SCV, 20% Long Treasuries, 20% Short Treasuries, 20% Gold) Portfolio 2: Golden Butterfly - No Gold (20% TSM, 20% SCV, 30% Long Treasuries, 30% Short Treasuries) Portfo...
by CULater
Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 381
Views: 56675

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

Also use the Rolling Returns chart with it set to 5 or more years of average returns. The GB was much better during the 2000s than the non-gold alternative. That was 30 years past the 1970s. Yes, that's true. If I start in 2000 then the rolling returns for 1,3,5,7,10 and 15 years, as well as the hi...
by CULater
Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 381
Views: 56675

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

willthrill81 wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 10:44 am
CULater wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 10:24 am Once again, it would be instructive to see the Portfolio Charts data run from a starting point of 1976 to 1978.
The heat map on that site shows all starting years since 1970.
Like to see the complete suite of backtesting results.
by CULater
Tue Jun 16, 2020 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 381
Views: 56675

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

Once again, it would be instructive to see the Portfolio Charts data run from a starting point of 1976 to 1978. Clearly, the inflationary 1970s were damaging to both stocks and nominal bonds, while Gold price did well. As I pointed out, when you look at returns from 1978, Gold has been unremarkable....
by CULater
Tue Jun 16, 2020 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 381
Views: 56675

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

I suggested to the author of Portfolio Charts for these reasons that an option to select a starting year other than 1970 be provided on the website but he disagreed. I disagree because Portfolio Charts already studies every start date simultaneously rather than just the period starting in 1970. :wi...
by CULater
Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 381
Views: 56675

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

For the longest period for which data is available using Portfolio Visualizer 1978-2020: Portfolio 1: Golden Butterfly (20% TSM, 20% SCV, 20% Long Treasuries, 20% Short Treasuries, 20% Gold) Portfolio 2: Golden Butterfly - No Gold (20% TSM, 20% SCV, 30% Long Treasuries, 30% Short Treasuries) Portfo...
by CULater
Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 381
Views: 56675

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

Once again, we see that over short rolling time periods (1 - 3 years) the Golden Butterfly did produce larger maximum returns in one or more of those time periods compared to the Golden Butterfly without Gold. But as the rolling time period lengthens, it did not. Also, the average returns for rollin...
by CULater
Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 381
Views: 56675

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

For the longest period for which data is available using Portfolio Visualizer 1978-2020: Portfolio 1: Golden Butterfly (20% TSM, 20% SCV, 20% Long Treasuries, 20% Short Treasuries, 20% Gold) Portfolio 2: Golden Butterfly - No Gold (20% TSM, 20% SCV, 30% Long Treasuries, 30% Short Treasuries) Portfol...
by CULater
Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 381
Views: 56675

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

Here's the thing about Gold. The longer you have an allocation to gold, the less benefit it provides. Historically, once you go beyond 3-5 years holding period you might as well have replaced your Gold allocation with an allocation to safe Treasuries because your portfolio returns would have been be...
by CULater
Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TIAA-CREF After Tax Annuity
Replies: 13
Views: 2368

Re: TIAA-CREF After Tax Annuity

There are two other options to consider for TIAA Trad withdrawal -- taking interest earned each year, or taking a RMD. I have been doing the former and plan to switch to RMD when interest is insufficient to meet RMD requirement. The income is lower in early years but I think makes more sense in the...
by CULater
Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TIAA-CREF After Tax Annuity - How to begin withdrawals?
Replies: 7
Views: 257

Re: TIAA-CREF After Tax Annuity - How to begin withdrawals?

Unfortunately, the long discussion of ATRAs over at Morningstar is among the many deleted, in the recent purge by Morningstar. That was important, because the (original, simplest version, ATRA as the analog of RA, SRA, GSRA, RC, RCP ... ) product was originally created to segregate funds that had b...
by CULater
Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TIAA-CREF After Tax Annuity - How to begin withdrawals?
Replies: 7
Views: 257

Re: TIAA-CREF After Tax Annuity - How to begin withdrawals?

With my ATRA, you cannot make partial withdrawals from Traditional. It is all or nothing. This applies to a TPA or to a lifetime annuity.
by CULater
Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TIAA-CREF After Tax Annuity
Replies: 13
Views: 2368

Re: TIAA-CREF After Tax Annuity

I have an ATRA with TIAA-CREF and withdrawal options depend on whether the funds are invested in TIAA Traditional. Funds invested in TIAA Traditional can only be withdrawn via a 10-year Transfer Payout Annuity or a Lifetime Annuity. Funds invested in TREA or CREF can be withdrawn as lump sum distrib...
by CULater
Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on today's sell-off?
Replies: 194
Views: 16449

Re: Thoughts on today's sell-off?

Did people really think we were going straight up and away from the March low with this crazy backdrop? The Fed is a printing press, interest rates are nothing, tech is a safe haven, money has to go somewhere, yada yada....we don’t get a new raging bull market in the middle of a raging pandemic kil...
by CULater
Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20234
Views: 2762183

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Market just passed the sinking rock.
by CULater
Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on today's sell-off?
Replies: 194
Views: 16449

Re: Thoughts on today's sell-off?

You are all wrong. The market selloff was predictable because I just bought some more VTI two days ago. Sorry I didn't post.
by CULater
Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CPI and the Perfect Storm for Seniors
Replies: 12
Views: 918

CPI and the Perfect Storm for Seniors

Here's why seniors are getting screwed by the government inflation statistics. For May, core inflation is reported as -0.1%, so that means you don't earn any interest and you probably won't get a COLA for social security. And your TIPS and I-Bonds are losers too. The cost of food at home increased 1...
by CULater
Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Puzzling problem with outbound calls on Google Voice
Replies: 6
Views: 511

Re: Puzzling problem with outbound calls on Google Voice

HueyLD wrote: Wed Jun 03, 2020 11:59 am You need to dial all ten digits (area code + seven digits) regardless of the number.
I do. Has always worked OK. This is a new problem.
by CULater
Wed Jun 03, 2020 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Puzzling problem with outbound calls on Google Voice
Replies: 6
Views: 511

Puzzling problem with outbound calls on Google Voice

Anybody know Google Voice? For some reason, outgoing calls to numbers with the same area code as the GV number are getting a false busy signal but GV calls to numbers with a different area code are going through OK. Inbound calls seem to work OK. Have tried to get some info on this but not successfu...
by CULater
Tue Jun 02, 2020 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When should I get a wheel alignment?
Replies: 42
Views: 2607

When should I get a wheel alignment?

I don't notice any problems with the car, such as the steering pulling, unusual tire wear, etc. Car has never had an alignment and just put new tires on it. Should I get an alignment even if there aren't any indications that it needs one? If it ain't broke, don't fix it? Or just go ahead and do it a...
by CULater
Sat May 30, 2020 5:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”
Replies: 233
Views: 19600

Re: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”

You'll want to read some of the writings of Robert Merton on the topic of life-cycle investing. He, in fact, is a leading authority on the matter. He is an advisor to DFA, which offers some products directed at liability matching so you'll want to research their offerings and counsel in this area. Y...
by CULater
Wed May 27, 2020 8:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trying to figure out life annuity payment amount if purchased in the future
Replies: 6
Views: 396

Re: Trying to figure out life annuity payment amount if purchased in the future

I think the problem with this is that it would be based on a "deferred annuity" whereby you purchase now to start in 7 years. I don't want to purchase now; I plan to purchase in 7 years and know how much $$ I'll have as a lump sum then. I want to know what payments to expect in 2020 dollars and not...
by CULater
Wed May 27, 2020 7:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trying to figure out life annuity payment amount if purchased in the future
Replies: 6
Views: 396

Re: Trying to figure out life annuity payment amount if purchased in the future

I want to estimate the payment amount for the purchase of a single premium immediate annuity if it is purchased 7 years from now. I'm using this tool to get an estimate. https://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/investing/accounts_products/investment/annuities/income_annuity/fixed_income_annuity_calcula...
by CULater
Wed May 27, 2020 6:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trying to figure out life annuity payment amount if purchased in the future
Replies: 6
Views: 396

Trying to figure out life annuity payment amount if purchased in the future

I want to estimate the payment amount for the purchase of a single premium immediate annuity if it is purchased 7 years from now. I'm using this tool to get an estimate. https://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/investing/accounts_products/investment/annuities/income_annuity/fixed_income_annuity_calculat...
by CULater
Mon May 25, 2020 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 18883

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Yet another way to view bonds within a LDI framework is that the consumption (cash flow) goal is akin to a long term bond. The LDI strategy is designed to have the same interest rate sensitivity as the consumption goal. To the extent this is implemented effectively, this assures that the value of th...
by CULater
Mon May 25, 2020 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bonds may be the only thing propping up the stock market
Replies: 13
Views: 1942

Re: Why bonds may be the only thing propping up the stock market

One of the purposes IMO of FED policy since 2007 is to drive investor dollars from safe assets (bonds) into risk assets (stocks, real estate, venture capital, etc.,) in an attempt to stimulate economic growth, job creation, and support asset prices. Their actions in the GR and the COVID-19 recessio...
by CULater
Mon May 25, 2020 1:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: If Jeep has such poor reliability, how come they are everywhere?
Replies: 174
Views: 13959

Re: If Jeep has such poor reliability, how come they are everywhere?

The more I think about it, the more I'm coming around to the view that whatever you buy should be regarded as a disposable asset to be traded away sooner rather than later. If you do that before the warranty runs out, the the only downside is the risk of spending too much time in the Service area of...
by CULater
Mon May 25, 2020 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 18883

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Bond investment risk has different definitions and depends on investment goals. If the goal is capital preservation, then short duration bonds are less risky than long duration bonds. That's because the market value of short bonds is less affected by changes in interest rates than long bonds. For e...
by CULater
Mon May 25, 2020 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 18883

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Bond investment risk has different definitions and depends on investment goals. If the goal is capital preservation, then short duration bonds are less risky than long duration bonds. That's because the market value of short bonds is less affected by changes in interest rates than long bonds. For ex...
by CULater
Sun May 24, 2020 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian comments on the crisis
Replies: 63
Views: 6926

Re: El-Erian comments on the crisis

He did suggest that quality--strong balances sheets with large cash reserves, reliable revenue and profit streams, moats around their business models--offers both downside protection and upside potential in this setting. This is something that most investors knew in the first place, which is why th...
by CULater
Sun May 24, 2020 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 18883

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

I've been taking a vacation from this thread for awhile and now that I'm back, I see we're still debating whether "interest rate risk" is absolute or relative. I'm in the camp that interest rate risk is an absolute characteristic of bonds and not contingent on who owns those bonds. Saying that inter...
by CULater
Sun May 24, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian comments on the crisis
Replies: 63
Views: 6926

Re: El-Erian comments on the crisis

This is a good time to have "won the game", right Dr. Bernstein?
by CULater
Sun May 24, 2020 1:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: If Jeep has such poor reliability, how come they are everywhere?
Replies: 174
Views: 13959

Re: If Jeep has such poor reliability, how come they are everywhere?

So there's a Jeep cult like there is a Subaru cult?
by CULater
Sun May 24, 2020 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian comments on the crisis
Replies: 63
Views: 6926

Re: El-Erian comments on the crisis

"You only get one whack at the cat." I observe lots of traffic at local restaurants, stores, etc. Most people not wearing masks or being careful about distancing. If cases and deaths spike up, will we just keep marching into the abyss, or will things have to shut down again? I guess it depends on ho...
by CULater
Sun May 24, 2020 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds
Replies: 71
Views: 5149

Re: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds

TIAA needs to put a warning on their TIAA Real Estate Account as well. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/946155/000162828020007192/tiaa-realestate03312020x10q.htm See pp. 69-70. John Thanks for the link. Very concerning. I have carried about 30% of my TIAA in the TREA for years but at the beg...
by CULater
Sun May 24, 2020 8:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: If Jeep has such poor reliability, how come they are everywhere?
Replies: 174
Views: 13959

If Jeep has such poor reliability, how come they are everywhere?

It seems that Jeep vehicles are nearly legendary for their poor reliability ratings, and yet I see them everywhere like dandelions. Why are they so popular when they have such a poor reputation? I'm wondering if I should consider buying one. The Grand Cherokee would be my choice. What do Bogleheads ...
by CULater
Sat May 23, 2020 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian comments on the crisis
Replies: 63
Views: 6926

Re: El-Erian comments on the crisis

His "Win-Win" description of the stock market explains to me why the market goes up when there is really bad news and why it goes up when there is some glimmer of hope news. If the news is lousy, that means the Fed will be popping in so that's good for stocks. If the news is hopeful that means we mi...
by CULater
Sat May 23, 2020 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds
Replies: 71
Views: 5149

Re: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds

Kinda looks like a money market fund to me: The Fund seeks high current income consistent with maintaining liquidity and preserving capital. Generally it seeks to maintain a share value of $1.00 per share. The fund invests at least 99.5% of its total assets in cash, U.S. Government securities and/or...
by CULater
Sat May 23, 2020 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds
Replies: 71
Views: 5149

Re: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds

packer16 wrote: Fri May 22, 2020 10:28 pm
CULater wrote: Fri May 22, 2020 9:37 pm Wonder what Vanguard is going to do? I'm not waiting to find out.
They have stopped new customers from opening new accounts in their treasury MMF.

Packer
I saw that. I wonder if it had anything to do with the fact that they saw negative yields coming.
by CULater
Fri May 22, 2020 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds
Replies: 71
Views: 5149

Re: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds

Wonder what Vanguard is going to do? I'm not waiting to find out.
by CULater
Fri May 22, 2020 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds
Replies: 71
Views: 5149

TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds

Looks like negative rates may be coming sooner rather than later as giant TIAA warns. TIAA has put a limited, short-term expense waiver in place to help prevent the CREF Money Market Account from having negative yields https://www.tiaa.org/public/land/moneymarketchanges?tc_mcid=em_MMarket_IAS_Assign...
by CULater
Fri May 22, 2020 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Some possible luxury SUV choices to buy: Opinions?
Replies: 210
Views: 17475

Re: Some possible luxury SUV choices to buy: Opinions?

Are you also having issues with the infotainment system, too? From what I've read, that's where many of the owner complaints stem from. No problems with the infotainment system. Apple car play works flawlessly. I used the radar cruise control on a cross county trip with no issues. The lane keep, bi...
by CULater
Wed May 20, 2020 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 18883

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

But that's not a risk-free assumption because LTT have much higher term risk than ITT.... My word, how many times can I repeat that THIS IS WRONG only for you to repeat it again? Long-term bonds do not, for long-term investors , have more interest rate risk than intermediate-term bonds. In fact, th...
by CULater
Tue May 19, 2020 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 18883

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Oh, Well. One more time: Long term treasuries have had one advantage over intermediate treasuries over the last many decades. They had higher interest payments and they got a bigger boost from the trend of declining interest rates. If we broke out the partials due to these two factors, you would hav...
by CULater
Tue May 19, 2020 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 18883

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

I think you've got to be realistic about what returns to expect. The 20-year treasury now yields 1%. It's unlikely you'll ever make more than 20% off the money invested, and that will only happen if rates don't go up. If you hold that treasury for 20 years you'll make 1%/year in interest = 20%. Or ...
by CULater
Tue May 19, 2020 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 18883

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

I think you've got to be realistic about what returns to expect. The 20-year treasury now yields 1%. It's unlikely you'll ever make more than 20% off the money invested, and that will only happen if rates don't go up. If you hold that treasury for 20 years you'll make 1%/year in interest = 20%. Or ...
by CULater
Tue May 19, 2020 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Some possible luxury SUV choices to buy: Opinions?
Replies: 210
Views: 17475

Re: Some possible luxury SUV choices to buy: Opinions?

Couple more to consider that will be coming out late this year or early 2021. Both the Kia Sorento and Jeep Grand Cherokee are coming out as completely new models and they both look great. I'll be waiting to look at these (Oh, I'm waiting anyway...) I hear Honda is releasing a new generation of CRV...
by CULater
Tue May 19, 2020 8:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Some possible luxury SUV choices to buy: Opinions?
Replies: 210
Views: 17475

Re: Some possible luxury SUV choices to buy: Opinions?

Couple more to consider that will be coming out late this year or early 2021. Both the Kia Sorento and Jeep Grand Cherokee are coming out as completely new models and they both look great. I'll be waiting to look at these (Oh, I'm waiting anyway...)
by CULater
Mon May 18, 2020 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 18883

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Term risk is interest rate risk. EE Bonds have no term (interest rate) risk.
by CULater
Mon May 18, 2020 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 18883

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Look at it this way. If I can manage to save an extra $500/month, that would be $6,000/year. In order to earn $6,000/year off long term bonds @ 1% I'd need to have $600,000 invested. Or if I could manage to set aside an extra $50/week that would match the interest payments from $260,000 in long ter...