Search found 5439 matches

by LH
Mon May 12, 2014 12:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Cypriot's view of the bank closure/ financial crisis
Replies: 6
Views: 1329

A Cypriot's view of the bank closure/ financial crisis

Came across this blog entry, its interesting financial history from a personal perspective. The blog usually deals with details of daily life and such, its not financial, talks about cats and such, shopping, visitors, etc. But I found it, read some of the (many) non financial pages, and then went to the time point in question to see the bloggers perspective on it. Found it interesting. http://wisemj.blogspot.com/2013_03_01_archive.html scroll down to read: Saturday March 16th - The Storm... Apparently bank accounts are frozen at the moment so that people cannot transfer out their cash nor that there can be a run on the banks. This has been cleverly done on a weekend when the following Monday is a bank holiday (Green Monday) so that it can b...
by LH
Mon May 12, 2014 12:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I be a boglehead and join a golf club?
Replies: 70
Views: 8279

Re: Can I be a boglehead and join a golf club?

frugalhen wrote: I I have played limited golf the last 20years but really enjoy it and am pretty good at it.
Thats quite the trick.

Anyway, on to the main point:

Yeah, read Your money or your life, its a great book that hits on this type of question. I bought an earlier version that did not go so heavy into the "green" stuff, but if you like that, get the newest version.

http://www.amazon.com/Your-Money-Life-T ... 0143115766

I think thats the newest version.

The important thing is, that you make the decision knowingly, which it sounds like you are.

So whatever you choose to do, will be right for you : )

Everything is a tradeoff. Again, read the book, it addresses head on the question you are asking
by LH
Mon May 12, 2014 12:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Great Offbeat Free stuff/service
Replies: 3
Views: 1437

Re: Great Offbeat Free stuff/service

Wow,

I just remembered another one. A church in my town, which is middle to upper middle class, is in a zone with a lower SES area on some government chart, so a church in the middle of this town, offers free lunches to kids paid for by the government, any kids........

pretty wild.
by LH
Mon May 12, 2014 12:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Gold/Silver Coins
Replies: 37
Views: 6302

Re: Investing in Gold/Silver Coins

I would like to read of a golden instance where a person reports first-hand that they used gold or silver coins in an emergency. One person. First-hand. Please. I think the only time I have heard of this is getting smuggled out of East Germany, but this was second-hand. http://ferfal.blogspot.com/2012/09/gold-sale-banned-in-argentina.html when USD became tight/hard to get, Argentinians turned to gold. To sell a house in Argentinian, they do not like to use pesos, they much prefer USD. One of the "downsides" to living(as I suppose you do) in the country which won the world war, has the reserve currency (for now), and the biggest economy, has near zero perceived threat of invasion, etc. etc. is that you are not likely to get any fi...
by LH
Sun May 11, 2014 11:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Gold/Silver Coins
Replies: 37
Views: 6302

Re: Investing in Gold/Silver Coins

I have a strong opinion on the subject. One invests in things which over time have provided a positive real return. For instance, stocks and bonds. One may speculate in things which do not provide a positive real return over the long run but which are subject to large price swings in the short run (e.g. currencies and commodities). I personally do not speculate but you are welcome to do so, just don't call it investment. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investment In finance, investment is putting money into an asset with the expectation of capital appreciation, dividends, and/or interest earnings. This may or may not be backed by research and analysis. Most or all forms of investment involve some form of risk, such as investment in equities, ...
by LH
Sun May 11, 2014 10:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2.5 mil to 10 mil - are we on track
Replies: 116
Views: 21632

Re: 2.5 mil to 10 mil - are we on track

It is interesting that people comment on private school - my question didn't ask about that, and I know the cost - I am writing the check, so obviously I am aware of the cost. Anyway, I appreciate your judgment and concern for my kids and their alternatives. It is also interesting that people think we are going to be below historical returns, yet this board has a principle - that one cannot predict future returns. How can it be boglehead-ish to predict that we will underperform historic norms, but yet also say that we can't predict the future, and we therefore should stay the course. Seems paradoxical. Anyway, I will look into other ways to get to 10 million, seems it feels like there is pessimism. It may mean cutting back a little and sav...
by LH
Sun May 11, 2014 2:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Great Offbeat Free stuff/service
Replies: 3
Views: 1437

Great Offbeat Free stuff/service

I randomly happened to save a couple thousand recently.

I had 5 30-40 feet pine trees die 2-3 years ago. Was going to pay to get them cut down.

A buddy told me that the power company, would do it for free, and they did. (they did not haul them away, but did cut them down to maybe 6 feet long chunks).

So, that is my offbeat free service:

If your dead tree is near a powerline, you can get it cut down for free by the power company quite possibly, saving hundreds of dollars.

anyone else?

LH
by LH
Sun May 11, 2014 2:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tree removal
Replies: 16
Views: 2175

Re: Tree removal

nhdean wrote:Has anyone have had any trees removed recently? I have 3 maple trees that are together. One is starting to rot ( the large one) which is about 40 ft high. The other 2 are smaller about 25 ft high. What can I expect to pay to have these removed?
If your trees are near a powerline, such that if they fell they would hit the line, your power company will likely cut them down for free.
by LH
Sun May 11, 2014 2:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Get out of bond funds"
Replies: 147
Views: 29967

Re: "Get out of bond funds"

Basically, if you have a bond fund with a duration of 5 years: Interest rates jump up 2 percent. Two things then happen. 1) the bond fund would drop in value ten percent, duration X change in rate = 10. That's bad. 2) the bond funds new bonds will start earning two percent more. That's good. At some point, these two countervailing forces equal out....., where would that be? Basically at 5 years, the duration. After 5 years, you would pull ahead of where you would have been if no interest rate hike occurred! Stay the course. Yes, at some point, I really really really hope, savers like me will get compensated for being savers again, and yeah, interest rates will rise, yeah, existing bonds will fall, but over time, that's what passive savers ...
by LH
Sat May 10, 2014 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Get out of bond funds"
Replies: 147
Views: 29967

Re: "Get out of bond funds"

I am fairly new to the Boglehead investment way of doing things but have loved learning from the wiki and this forum. Before, I was 100% in equity index funds. Now, I have moved things around to 85/15 (I am 27 years old). I am still attempting to learn as much as I can about bonds since they are new to me. I have been hearing Warren Buffets advice on bonds and saw Suze Orman recommend getting out of bond funds on her show last night. I am not really asking if this is good advice or not. Rather, I would appreciate some clear explanations as to what would make someone give this specific advice in the current state of the economy. For example, how exactly will the 'impending interest rises' affect bond funds influencing people to shy away fro...
by LH
Sat May 10, 2014 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal reserve balance sheet may take 5-8 years to shrink
Replies: 41
Views: 6382

Re: Federal reserve balance sheet may take 5-8 years to shri

Thanks for post Larry Money supply has grown by your numbers 6 percent annual, roughly 12 years of that it's doubled. CPI inflation has not tracked that. Sure reconsider and market by the nominal tip difference do not expect higher inflation. The issue is one of expectations, yes, they are deemed low currently by market. However, read April 2007 IMF report, read subprime ratings even before then. By those criteria, subprime should not have happened, but it did....... You go from basically nil expectation, to your reference that a great depression was avoided. Which is interesting juxtaposition, as this is always interesting : ) That 6 percent, and the lack of response due to the unmeasurable velocity ( one gets into empiricism, the plum pud...
by LH
Sat May 10, 2014 2:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what happened when sterling lost its reserve status?
Replies: 7
Views: 2669

what happened when sterling lost its reserve status?

Image
http://trader2trader.wordpress.com/2013 ... 1450-2013/

I was wondering what the effects were when sterling lost its reserve currency status to the US dollar from the British/sterling perspective?
by LH
Sat May 10, 2014 1:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal reserve balance sheet may take 5-8 years to shrink
Replies: 41
Views: 6382

Re: Federal reserve balance sheet may take 5-8 years to shri

Is there any particular reason why anyone cares about the balance sheet of the Fed? Would it matter if they draw rainbows and unicorns on their balance sheet? The people who get the access to the created money first , care very very very deeply. Its great for them. The people who end up paying for it, currently through financial repression, or through future inflation, or effects of misallocation, may not care about the fed per se, because they may not understand what happened, but they will care about the effects they will nonetheless feel. Ditto pensioners in the future, how long can pensions (or SS trust funds) designed with already moronic targets of 8 percent a year, withstand zirp, year after year after year....... it cannot occur. Y...
by LH
Wed May 07, 2014 5:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Allocation Review: No Total Bond
Replies: 9
Views: 3373

Re: Bond Allocation Review: No Total Bond

Sounds good enough.

I do a 50/50 split with tips and aggregate. Some mbs and high grade corporate is fine by me.

I like having tips, though I dont expect the CPI to really track inflation if things go really bad, I think it will be somewhere along the gradient of the us now, and argentenia official inflation now. But tips hopefully will be better than nominals in high inflation. (has to be unexpected too)

Bonds are for safety, for return of principal, your split looks safe.
by LH
Tue May 06, 2014 11:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Nervous investor checking in
Replies: 19
Views: 3680

Re: Nervous investor checking in

What is your overall Asset allocation? You have a hodgepodge of things. I treat my wife and my allocation as one portfolio. It takes a spreadsheet to do it, which may be too complex. my allocation is 13 percent each: US TSM, US SCV US REIT Europe, australiaasia, emerging, 9.5 percent each US TIPS, US aggregate Bonds 3 percent gold that is just what worked for me, its nothing special. But I know what it is, and I rebalance to it across accounts. You have growth, scv, and funds I dont know what they are. I would simplify it. You basically need 1) US TSM 2) US bonds 3) International stock at minimum. I would focus on getting that as cheaply as possible, which usually entails vanguard funds. A SP500 fund, is a good proxy for US total stock mark...
by LH
Mon May 05, 2014 9:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement in 15 years, $200K in cash
Replies: 16
Views: 4523

Re: Retirement in 15 years, $200K in cash

Look into single payment immediate annuity from vanguard when you retire. Your retirement is going to be tight unless your needs are low.

Basically, every 100k gives you 4k per month in a 60/40 stock bond split expectantly with a 95 percent success rate inflation adjusted.
So 200k = 8k a year stream.

A spia, may get you up to 6 percent a year, but I have not looked. So with that 200k = 12 k a year

Good luck
by LH
Mon May 05, 2014 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Outdoor fire pit? Yea or Nay
Replies: 61
Views: 15683

Re: Outdoor fire pit? Yea or Nay

Great.

Mine is easy to maintain, I will do nothing until it disintegrates, then pay some 100-200 bucks to remortar it

So far it's been 4 years, mine is just about a 4x4 pit of natural stone about 1-2 feet high
by LH
Sun May 04, 2014 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you do after maxing out your tax deferred?
Replies: 22
Views: 3981

Re: What do you do after maxing out your tax deferred?

529

Get a high deductible plan, leave all money in hsa, save each years medical bills and receipts forever.

Mortgage is good

Taxable is good

I bonds are good (they are bonds, and yeah there is financial repression, but it is what it is)

Taxable is fine

Vanguard variable annuity is a thought.... But really taxable has it beat, but for tax diversification, might be a marginal addition, for who knows what future tax law will bring.
by LH
Sun May 04, 2014 4:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 80/20 stocks/gold portfolio
Replies: 37
Views: 7026

Re: 80/20 stocks/gold portfolio

Gold is not an either a lot or none proposition. I am currently at 3 percent, which is small, but gold can jump up 4-5 times under right conditions, which would turn it into 12-15 percent. then if stocks tank 70-90 percent, and stay down, well, that 12-15 percent of original portfolio is a huge proportion of your remaining money. Thats a different way of looking at things, from protection of original percentage, to what you actually have after the bad event happens, but if the bad event actually happens, its where you will be.... in reality. And in that reality, if you have twice as much money as you would have remaining if you did not have any gold, that is significant..... Look. Say 97stocks 3 percent gold. you have 100 dollars. Say stock...
by LH
Sun May 04, 2014 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 80/20 stocks/gold portfolio
Replies: 37
Views: 7026

Re: 80/20 stocks/gold portfolio

I largely agree with you but you are simply not diversified with only stocks and gold

There going to be times when both gold and Stocks will take serious hits and especially with gold and maybe prolong hits as well as with Stocks there may be prolonged hits there certain economic conditions that only bonds will work well
by LH
Sat May 03, 2014 7:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: people who buy annuities live longer than those that dont?
Replies: 24
Views: 2619

Re: people who buy annuities live longer than those that don

Just read Super Freakonomics by Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner and was interested in the stat that says people who buy annuities tend to live longer than people who don't. The paragraph (on page 72 nook edition) says it's not because people who buy annuities are healthier to begin with, but rather that a steady payout for life "provides a little extra incentive to keep chugging along." I'm not a fan of annuities other than the immediate, lowest cost type...but what do people think about this? selection bias comes to mind. If I know I am likely to die soon, do I buy an annuity? no. If I am healthy, parents lived to 100. do I buy an annuity? yes. I would guess they controlled for that. I read about 20-100 pages of the original fr...
by LH
Sat May 03, 2014 7:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daughter getting married
Replies: 57
Views: 8406

Re: Daughter getting married

barnaclebob wrote:I could see myself doing something like that with the provision that there has to be alcohol for the guests, no cash bars allowed.
Heheh, my father said the same thing.

The repeat alcohol stipulation is interesting. I certainly understand it. But its very interesting nonetheless.
by LH
Sat May 03, 2014 4:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your personal inflation rate
Replies: 9
Views: 2374

Your personal inflation rate

I have often read about ones own personal inflation rate, but have never really even had a hint of a gestalt of it relative to the CPI, came scross this chart. http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/05/costs%20for%20americans.jpg http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-02/magic-100-hedonic-deflation-one-chart I still don't have a gestalt, but found it interesting along that path. If anyone else has anything along this line, getting a sense of ones personal inflation, please post. It's hedonic substitution versus hedonic treadmill for me. Say phones, I actually pay out more for phones, and others now do too. They are better, but more expensive with plans and such. It's a choice, just like steak or chicken or a...
by LH
Fri May 02, 2014 12:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 80/20 stocks/gold portfolio
Replies: 37
Views: 7026

Re: 80/20 stocks/gold portfolio

Hello, I am a 24 year old who already has an 80-20 conventional stock/bond ETF portfolio set up, so I'm not asking for specifics. Rather, I'd like to launch a pilot balloon for the concept of replacing my bonds with gold. I propose to do this for the following reasons: - Gold seems more anti-correlated with stock performance than bonds - I live in Germany, where there is a poor selection of accumulating bond funds - I am not a citizen of Germany and may leave at an indeterminate time for an indeterminate location for an indeterminate period; I therefore have no 'home' bond - Both gold and TIPS (etc) should be expected to match inflation over the long term, so short term fluctuations aside there should only be the marginal cost of holding t...
by LH
Wed Apr 30, 2014 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why will stocks/bonds do worse than in the past?
Replies: 30
Views: 6781

Re: Why will stocks/bonds do worse than in the past?

In this thread about doubling your money in a specific time frame, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=138158 nisiprius said: Many people I think of as experts seem pretty sure that the outlook for both stocks and bonds is worse than in the past, so your chances of hitting 6% may be even less than they were historically and the shortfalls when you miss may be worse. Why is it conventional wisdom that the outlook of stocks and bonds will do worse than in the past? My sense is, experts are saying a reasonable expectation is 6%–8% long term, or 7% if you have you pick a number, but a predictable percentage is useless without considering the impact of Asset Allocation. It seems realistically, even a ballpark prediction of n...
by LH
Wed Apr 30, 2014 12:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Did you tell anyone you paid off your mortgage?
Replies: 338
Views: 61764

Re: Did you tell anyone you paid off your mortgage?

I would not generally tell people. Lots of people are struggling. It's good, it's something to be proud of, but not something to share per se, I would shy away from sharing. In terms if work negotiations, I think ability to leave comes out quite well. Mortgage being zero is a factor. But the employer doesn't care, it's basically just ability to leave regardless of reason. I mean if appro of nothing, someone told me my mortgage is paid off, I would likely be put off. Note I have not paid off mortgage, but could if I desired, it's just a question of leverage one inflation hedged. But I have reached other milestones, I do not tell people those. If someone asks, I may say it, and if they likely have MORE net worth than me, I would be more likel...
by LH
Mon Apr 28, 2014 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most reliable way to double a portfolio in 12 years
Replies: 55
Views: 18204

Re: Most reliable way to double a portfolio in 12 years

happytrades wrote:How about a SPIA?

Depending on your age, you could buy a Single Premium Immediate Annuity, and be guaranteed to double your money in 12 years -- assuming you don't die in the interim.
nice.
by LH
Mon Apr 28, 2014 11:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: should I break down and buy a gold coin?
Replies: 20
Views: 3133

Re: should I break down and buy a gold coin?

johnep wrote:I am no expert on gold but have read from credible sources that historically it is not a good hedge for inflation. Do others agree on that?
It is not a good hedge for low inflation, or even moderately high inflation, say 5, or maybe even 10 percent.

But hyperinflation, yes. where the delineation is I do not know.
by LH
Mon Apr 28, 2014 11:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: should I break down and buy a gold coin?
Replies: 20
Views: 3133

Re: should I break down and buy a gold coin?

nolabogle wrote:
I've got nothing against you buying them, but now is probably not the time. Wait until gold takes a dip. It has been hovering in the $1600 range. Maybe target the $1000 range. Otherwise, don't bother.
I agree.
still waiting on the 1K : )
by LH
Mon Apr 28, 2014 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most reliable way to double a portfolio in 12 years
Replies: 55
Views: 18204

Re: Most realiable way to double a portfolio in 12 years

If you wanted to double the size of a portfolio in 12 years how would you invest the money. If it goes over that's fine but not necesssary. The goal is to fine the most likely and least risky investment option to achieve this goal. 70/30 stocks bonds basically, stocks get 7 percent real return, 10 percent nominal. Bonds get around 3 percent real return 5 percent nominal(this is more hazy recollection) http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html Shows recent FRED data, look at bottom, for nominal returns of 10 year bills and stock. subtract inflation over the same period to get the real. Average inflation was 3.2 percent at one point, now recently, its been lower, so dunno what the updated annual inflation is....
by LH
Mon Apr 28, 2014 6:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Convince me to lump sum into the market
Replies: 59
Views: 14119

Re: Convince me to lump sum into the market

if you need convincing, I would just DCA in. You are the one who will have to live with the consequences, and there possibly could be bad consequences. Its the difference between the expected result and the actual result. Its about 1/3 time better to DCA about 2/3 time better to LUMP. You will personally experience only one of these results, not the average result so if you were a person in Japan, circa 1990, and got a huge sum, and lumped it in at the top of the nikkei...... well....... that is what it is. So that is the risk of lumping a big sum relative to your future earnings and current net worth. There are very unpleasant possible paths, that you may indeed take a loss permanently in your financial lifetime. To me, the recent market d...
by LH
Sat Apr 26, 2014 9:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Malwarebytes Anti-malware advises it will expire shortly
Replies: 22
Views: 6980

Re: Malwarebytes Anti-malware advises it will expire shortly

Free programs = cnet.com

The top 50 or whatever list will routinely have the best free virus malware etc........

It's a no brainer, and constantly updates via downloads numbers.

If something is good it rises to top.
by LH
Fri Apr 25, 2014 11:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Pensions as pert of bond allocation
Replies: 5
Views: 1343

Re: Pensions as pert of bond allocation

Pensions, home equity, career, are qualitative factors influencing your AA stock bond split. Need, desire, ability to take risk. Age/life cycle stage AA stock bond split is a mix of those things. Just for flavor..... Say 1) has a 300k house fully owned, in a stable neighborhood, has 100k portfolio 90 stocks/10 bonds at age 40 years. 2) rents. Has a 100k portfolio 80/20 split Who is more risky? Who is more exposed to stock risk as a portion of net worth? It's clearly 2 I posit. Going from 65/35 without considering pension, to 90/10 considering pension as the only addition to the thought process, does not make qualitative sense, unless a lot of other things line up, need, ability, desire, lifecycle stage etc, to enable that to be such a big f...
by LH
Fri Apr 25, 2014 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Would you EVER recommend 100% equity?
Replies: 136
Views: 35931

Re: Poll: Would you EVER recommend 100% equity?

zaboomafoozarg wrote:
LH wrote:classic case, just starting out investing when young in 20s, early 30s. go sp500.
This is bogleheads.org though, where almost everyone reaches 100k well before 30 :D
well.... speaking as an MD, I surely did not : )
MDs usually just out of residency circa 30 years old.
by LH
Fri Apr 25, 2014 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Would you EVER recommend 100% equity?
Replies: 136
Views: 35931

Re: Poll: Would you EVER recommend 100% equity?

yes. classic case, just starting out investing when young in 20s, early 30s. go sp500. 1) there is little nominal dollars at risk 2) There is little lifecycle risk, your main asset is your future earnings 3) You can follow sp500, and figure out your ability to take risk, when you have little to lose. If the market drops 50 percent, and your 10K you have saved away goes to 5K, and you cannot sleep.... well much much much better to know early on, than when you have 500K, and it drops to 250 K, and you capitulate, fixing your loss. If you want to make up the 5K loss, if you capitulate when young, well buy a cheaper car/house, eat out less over a couple years, whatever. If you want to make up the 250K at age 50.... well different story. 4)Simpl...
by LH
Fri Apr 25, 2014 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Europe Developed REIT valuation?
Replies: 7
Views: 1300

Re: Europe Developed REIT valuation?

http://www.reit.com/investing

You are correct. REITS representing land ownership and land income streams are fundamentally different from business ownership and business income streams. By the simple fundamentals, they need different metrics.

funds from operation is one metric that can be used for valuation. The above link is a good one to explore further in general.
by LH
Thu Apr 24, 2014 5:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you use a dry powder/tactical asset allocation strategy?
Replies: 30
Views: 5204

Re: Do you use a dry powder/tactical asset allocation strate

Waba wrote:
LH wrote: As there is the famous, dry powder mutual fund that takes this moronically easy trick, applies it, and beats passive index finds consistently.....

It's ticker is...... Hmmmmm.....
FPACX? 41% in cash as of 12/31/2013, 9.88% annual return over last 15 year
?

Just to be clear, are you saying fpacx, employs a strategy like the op???

Or are you just pointing out ex post, that funds do beat passive indexing like dart throwing monkeys can?
by LH
Thu Apr 24, 2014 4:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can my computer hear me?
Replies: 54
Views: 13873

Re: Can my computer hear me?

agent13x wrote:I work in computer security, and I can assure you that no companies out there are using your microphone to target advertisements. They are based on your search and browsing history. Install ad-block plus on your browser and forget about em.
Heck yeah, it's not like all your emails are stored and searchable by people you don't know, forever. No way that's going on. There is a fundamental respect for your privacy, period. So do not worry : P

Heh, that said its more likely it had nothing to do with computer listening to you Siri like, likely a past search or something.

Get ccleaner from cnet.com, wipe near everything off your computer cookie and history wise.
by LH
Wed Apr 23, 2014 10:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Utah 529 instead of Vanguard 529?
Replies: 33
Views: 14894

Re: Why Utah 529 instead of Vanguard 529?

I have both the vanguard Nevada 529 as well as Utah possibly for over ten years, definitely 5.

Utah over time seems better, they constantly drop ERs, fees, etc over years. even for out of staters. It has a very good feel to it. It feels almost conscientious. Which is something I don't feel about any other investment.


Having said that, I likely have used Nevadas about equally. One us in wifes name, one in my name. If I had to pick only one, it would be Utah.

Over the years, some states pop up and are better, then fall off... Utah is always in the top 5 or so. It's just been real consistent.
by LH
Wed Apr 23, 2014 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: why carry cash?
Replies: 243
Views: 25466

Re: POLL: why carry cash?

The Growing Perils of the Cashless Future http://www.cnbc.com/id/101605846 saw this headline, thought of this thread. Its ok, nothing special. Also, if a 2007,8 US event happens, and the ATMS do run dry next time, as was talked about in the media, it would be good to have cash on hand. Cash I think, should be part of ones emergency fund, tucked away, a bit hard to get at, like locked in a safe or something. Or if a Cyprus event happens, etc. etc. or maybe Katrina, not really familiar with it, but a disaster might likely wipe out the local grid for a while, would make sense for atms to go down in katrina (I dunno if they did or not), physical cash would be nice to have. Also just privacy. I like privacy : ) so cash is good for that, but con...
by LH
Tue Apr 22, 2014 12:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hit your #, Still want to work, does your savings % change?
Replies: 47
Views: 7086

Re: Hit your #, Still want to work, does your savings % chan

I have not per se hit my number, but I have cut back on work.

I will save less as a result.

Kids are 11, 12 now. In a few years they may not want to spend so much time with us. In 6-7 years, they will be gone to college.

Kinda a sweet spot now in terms of the kids.

No matter how much I would have saved, I will never be able to buy this time period back.
by LH
Mon Apr 21, 2014 12:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you use a dry powder/tactical asset allocation strategy?
Replies: 30
Views: 5204

Re: Do you use a dry powder/tactical asset allocation strate

Oh yeah

Dry powder

You hold cash, until prices are "low" then you buy.

You win by this simple tactical maneuver of timing the market!

You don't even have to do it yourself....

As there is the famous, dry powder mutual fund that takes this moronically easy trick, applies it, and beats passive index finds consistently.....

It's ticker is...... Hmmmmm.....

Well....

I guess no mutual fund like that exists for some reason


I wonder why?
by LH
Wed Apr 16, 2014 5:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your net worth
Replies: 37
Views: 7817

What is your net worth

I am not looking for a reply, just a poll response. Pick the number that you are under. If your net worth, assets-liabilities (include home equity and mortgage) is 300,000 you would choose the 500K option.
by LH
Wed Apr 16, 2014 5:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get
Replies: 72
Views: 8557

Re: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get

Calm Man, the correction was roughly from 16,600 down to 16,000 on the DOW but the news media really played it up and people scare easily. I know it was roughly 3% but when the media gets a hold of that watch out. A 30% correction will cause some folks to get religion. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp A reverse movement, usually negative, of at least 10% in a stock, bond, commodity or index to adjust for an overvaluation. I don't think we have had one of those in quite some time in US stocks/indexes. The cited definition is worthless. You can have a decline of 10% but there is no way to know or say the the market is "over valued" Using words like correction and dip and bump etc suggest that there is underlying s...
by LH
Wed Apr 16, 2014 5:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get
Replies: 72
Views: 8557

Re: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get

Pre 2007, I was using 50 percent drop starting tommorrow. I said if the market drop 50 percent tommorrow, it would not phase me. The actual market blowup really didnt hit me much mentally, I was fighting to not go more stock and sell bonds instead.

Nowadays I use 70-90 percent drop mentally, a great depression II. Now, I cannot really say that would not hit me mentally, I have trepidation now, whereas before I did not.
by LH
Wed Apr 16, 2014 4:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous
Replies: 79
Views: 9792

Re: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous

Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous Yes, it does. Japan shows that a market crash can last long enough to convert shallow risk into deep risk. For those looking at Japan and coming up with reasons after the fact is kind of like how black swans are always reasoned out--after the fact. Is anyone actually saying something similar can't ever happen in the U.S.? If you have a mindset that markets are always efficient and one should be a buy and hold investor 24/7 the Japanese example does show that stocks can be dangerous. But I seriously doubt that Jack Bogle would have been caught up in this frenzy. I noticed he wasn't holding the bag in 2000 when U.S. equities began to crater. A little common sense can go a long way. :idea: If you ...
by LH
Wed Apr 16, 2014 4:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous
Replies: 79
Views: 9792

Re: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous

I am going to come to Bernston's defense here. Whether you disagree with his post or not or if you think there were problems with the data, there are things that emerge from this thread. First, valuations matter and they matter a whole lot. Or as Warren Buffett said, "Geometric progressions eventually forge their own anchors." Or as others have said, "Trees don't grow to the sky." Or as I like to say, start worrying when the shoe shine boys on Wall Street start bragging about their large stock profits. So investors should pay attention not only to extremes in valuations but also extremes in market sentiment. Second, the deflation and the appreciation of the YEN mitigated the losses from the Japanese stock market. Still ...
by LH
Tue Apr 15, 2014 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is a secured creditor, are muncipal bonds secured?
Replies: 2
Views: 622

what is a secured creditor, are muncipal bonds secured?

I have been following detroit with some interest: Detroit Files Debt-Cutting Plan http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303775504579396992180729508 or https://www.google.com/search?q=wsj+detroit&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&channel=sb (note article found and read in its entirety by googling "wsj detroit") The above detroit settlement is just a proposal, so cannot be discussed. But it brings up a factual risk question, the point of this thread: Are municipal bond holders secured creditors? For purposes of discussion, lets use Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Investor Shares (VWITX) https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0042&am...
by LH
Tue Apr 15, 2014 4:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific
Replies: 46
Views: 4742

Re: SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific

stocks are more risky, they must pay out more than bonds to get people to take the risk of stocks. sounds good, but completely wrong for past 50 years. You lost me here. No one knowledgeable believes the second clause of the first sentence. Indeed as stated you have an oxymoron. A statement that is clearly false. And what evidence do you have for the second sentence? As far as I can tell it is false as well. You might be right about SCV, time will tell. But you seem to start with two falsehoods so I stopped reading. ADDED: Now that I have read it, I think the replies are on target. All the OP has done is supply his own story and spin and offered up an unsubstantiated opinion. Could be right or wrong, but pretty empty of substance. LH was r...