Search found 382 matches

by Ethelred
Thu Feb 04, 2021 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Power of Working Longer
Replies: 539
Views: 56088

Re: The Power of Working Longer

afan wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:16 am Well, it seems you are assuming that the activities in retirement would be more gratifying than the work. The marginal "cost" of continuing to work may be negative. That is, if one would rather be working than retired, then one would add the benefit of working to the income to come up with the net benefit of remaining productive.

Retiring would mean losing the income and the activities. There would be no benefits to retiring.
It looks like we completely agree, just you're someone who gets more net benefit from working than retiring.
by Ethelred
Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Power of Working Longer
Replies: 539
Views: 56088

Re: The Power of Working Longer

IMO most posters are missing the point of the paper. The paper isn't saying don't save much per year and more than make up for that low saving rate by planning on working a long time. Instead, the paper is answering the following question. As you get very near to your retirement date, is it worthwhile to work a few more months or a year longer than you intended? The answer is incontrovertibly, YES :!: BobK Without even reading the paper, I can tell you that your statement is wrong, and the authors would not agree with it. I know this, because "diminishing marginal benefit" is one of the most basic concepts of economics, and the authors are academic economists. Net marginal benefit = marginal benefit minus marginal cost In this co...
by Ethelred
Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 5086
Views: 396709

Re: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]

It doesn't look like a pump and dump from the definition on the SEC's website ... "Pump and dump" schemes have two parts. In the first, promoters try to boost the price of a stock with false or misleading statements about the company. Once the stock price has been pumped up, fraudsters move on to the second part, where they seek to profit by selling their own holdings of the stock, dumping shares into the market. These schemes often occur on the Internet where it is common to see messages urging readers to buy a stock quickly. Often, the promoters will claim to have "inside" information about a development that will be positive for the stock. After these fraudsters dump their shares and stop hyping the stock, the price ...
by Ethelred
Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 5086
Views: 396709

Re: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]

I'm going to hold my judgement. Too convenient that this is another assault on US institutions by random people on social media manipulating the behaviors of others. I hope I'm wrong. Foreign actors have figured out that laws for US citizens operating in the US are different than for non-US citizens outside the US. Riling up US citizens to attack our system achieves the goals of adversaries without them directly committing crimes. I'm not defending the hedge funds at all because they helped create the environment that pits a large number of US citizens against them but rather noting who the ensuing chaos benefits. Like I said I hope I'm wrong. Yes, I'm inclined to agree. Though I imagine any foreign actor would be focused on inciting inexp...
by Ethelred
Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low cost Chinese S&P500 type funds?
Replies: 27
Views: 3449

Re: Low cost Chinese S&P500 type funds?

I agree with large parts of your thesis, but you seem to be assuming both that an individual American is able to safely invest in China, and moreover that index funds are the way to do it. You may be right, but you should not just assume. China has become a very powerful country, but their laws and financial markets are not a mirror image of the US.
by Ethelred
Mon Jan 18, 2021 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corsera-Finance-Yale-Shiller
Replies: 3
Views: 721

Re: Corsera-Finance-Yale-Shiller

"Starts today" just means that you can start as soon as you enroll. Tomorrow, it will also "start today". This is the way most courses with Coursera/EdX etc. work.
by Ethelred
Mon Dec 28, 2020 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No big moves
Replies: 64
Views: 5398

Re: No big moves

Triple digit golfer wrote: Mon Dec 28, 2020 7:56 pm Is anybody else here like me in that they are uncomfortable with and therefore avoid big changes to their portfolio?
The disconnect here is that your actions are the opposite of "no big moves". By never rebalancing, you are gradually making a very big change to your portfolio, allowing it to become riskier and more volatile with time. You are also choosing to avoid the increased return that comes from rebalancing.
by Ethelred
Thu Dec 10, 2020 6:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Relocation to Houston, Texas from SF Bay - Advice
Replies: 102
Views: 10951

Re: Relocation to Houston, Texas from SF Bay - Advice

HawkeyePierce wrote: Thu Dec 10, 2020 6:24 pm Oof. Woodlands to Katy would be a miserable commute.
Not sure how long you've been out of Houston, but it's been at least possible since the NW section of 99 finished construction between I-10 West and I-45 North in 2016, and I used to commute over part of it. I do agree, though, I'd never recommend anyone choose that commute. Katy and The Woodlands are very similar, other than there being more trees north of Houston.
by Ethelred
Thu Dec 10, 2020 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Relocation to Houston, Texas from SF Bay - Advice
Replies: 102
Views: 10951

Re: Relocation to Houston, Texas from SF Bay - Advice

You will be fine in every aspect you mention. You say you have two young kids and your social life revolves around them. Just live in Katy and send your kids to the schools there. There are excellent suburban restaurants and shopping there. There are plenty of moderate Republican/Libertarians in the Houston suburbs (also plenty of moderate Democrats). You will struggle to find a house as small as you say you want, especially on lot as big as a quarter acre. House prices have gone up significantly in the last year, but I imagine are still well below Bay area prices. The only thing I will flag from your first post is that you will not get the same type of trail walking. Part of the reason for the sprawl of the Houston metro is that it's as fl...
by Ethelred
Thu Dec 03, 2020 12:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are lifecycle funds so equity-heavy?
Replies: 67
Views: 5999

Re: Why are lifecycle funds so equity-heavy?

Here’s another interesting paper Estrada just published, broadly confirming the commons sense notion of a declining glidepath due to changes in risk aversion and human capital over time: https://blog.iese.edu/jestrada/files/2020/04/TDFGRA.pdf Target-date funds feature asset allocations that become increasingly conservative as investors approach retirement. An important shortcoming of this strategy is that it is suboptimal in terms of capital accumulation, which begs the question of why these funds are so popular. A possible answer is that investors become more risk averse as they age, gradually favoring more downside protection as they approach retirement. The main issue explored in this article is how much more risk averse would investors...
by Ethelred
Wed Dec 02, 2020 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are lifecycle funds so equity-heavy?
Replies: 67
Views: 5999

Re: Why are lifecycle funds so equity-heavy?

Javier Estrada's article entitled " The Glidepath Illusion: an International Perspective " is an interesting read for those interested in this subject. He compares a variety of glidepaths - lifecycle (age in bonds), contrarian (i.e., the mirror/opposite of lifecycle), balanced funds, all stock, and approaches similar to Vanguard's that hold a high proportion of equities until about 20 years before retirement. While Vanguard's glidepath is not specifically praised in the article, it performs very favorably. That paper is interesting, but really, really needs some graphs, and maybe an abstract, too. The conclusions make worthwhile reading, though: However, despite their unquestionable benefits, it seems wise to ask whether investor...
by Ethelred
Fri Nov 27, 2020 12:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block 2020 software offer
Replies: 426
Views: 43478

Re: H&R Block 2020 software offer

MisterMister wrote: Fri Nov 27, 2020 12:55 pmThis may or may not help. I’ve had some problems with buying at Walmart online recently with Chrome. If you are using Chrome try another browser like MS Edge.

Not sure what my issue is. Edge works fine and I am still having problems with Chrome.
Thanks. Yes, I just tried Edge before you sent this, and it worked fine. Not sure why there's a problem.
by Ethelred
Fri Nov 27, 2020 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block 2020 software offer
Replies: 426
Views: 43478

Re: H&R Block 2020 software offer

The current Walmart price of $17-50 for Deluxe (no state) is the cheapest I've ever paid. Not sure why it says it's reduced from $24-97. The only problem is that I get an error message when I try to add it to the cart.
by Ethelred
Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Position Recently Eliminated - Next Steps and Career Advice
Replies: 13
Views: 2181

Re: Position Recently Eliminated - Next Steps and Career Advice

wackeym wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:44 pm 401k 50k S&P 500 Fund (very low expense ratio)
TIRA 90k VTTSX
Roth IRA 68k VTTSX
HSA 25k VTTSX

2) After I am terminated, assuming I should roll the 401k into the TIRA? Maybe I should do some roth conversions if I end up having a low income year in 2021?
There is usually no urgent reason to move out of a low-cost 401k unless you are required to by your previous employer. You might want to, to simplify, but it's a step usually pushed for people with 401ks with no good low-cost investment options (and pushed by the brokerages that want your money).

Good luck.
by Ethelred
Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying half a house
Replies: 78
Views: 8676

Re: Buying half a house

There is no big family Thanksgiving this year and it's just going to be me and mom and a nice dinner for two (I plan to visit her). Maybe that will be a good time to sit and just talk to her about this in more detail. Would it be wrong of me to try to just talk her into changing her will to leaving the house 100% to my brother and leaving me an equal number of other assets instead? I don't want to do anything to mess up my brother either, I want to do right by him while not getting stuck with this house myself. I just read through your whole thread, and I was about to recommend exactly this. The only additional suggestion I had was to value the house at the land and construction cost, including half the shared facilities. That way you avoi...
by Ethelred
Tue Nov 17, 2020 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: After 37 Years, Value Manager AJO Is Shuttering. It Won’t Be the Last.
Replies: 43
Views: 6214

Re: After 37 Years, Value Manager AJO Is Shuttering. It Won’t Be the Last.

Yes, I have read the article myself numerous times and have referred to it. The point is that negative sentiment is ultimately good for stocks. As I recall, this was not a perfect point in time to get back into stocks, it was maybe 3-4 years after the publishing of the article that the stock market turned around. Indeed, it was one of the great bull markets of stock market history. So, capitulation came 3-4 years before the end of the bear market? We think of capitulation as something that happens suddenly. In reality, it happens over a period of time. Secular bear markets, such as we had from about 1968 to 1984 are caused by outside factors. First, the 1960's were a period of market optimism, the "go-go era" and the "Nifty ...
by Ethelred
Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Risk tolerance plummeted to zero, now what?
Replies: 32
Views: 3631

Re: Risk tolerance plummeted to zero, now what?

Sometimes, perhaps even often, the answer to financial anxiety is not dialing back on stock allocation, it is logic, financial education and thinking through "What's the worst that actually could happen?" My family is in a fairly similar situation to yours, though your income and net worth are both higher. We are set up with 75/25 asset allocation and a good size cash reserve. We work in a cyclical industry, and now and again, my wife worries about what might happen if the economy tanks and we also lose our jobs. We know we could last for years if we had to, cutting back on our expenses and slowly drawing down some of our investments. The difference seems to be that you have more money than we do, and your job(s) are not at risk. ...
by Ethelred
Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is there a better meta-review site than Wirecutter?
Replies: 30
Views: 6159

Re: Is there a better meta-review site than Wirecutter?

For TVs, computer monitors and computer accessories, https://www.rtings.com/ is better than any other site I've seen. They have extended what they cover this year, and now also include soundbars, vacuums and blenders. The best sites do have one potential drawback, though: if you purchase all your own review items, and provide detailed reviews of each, it is difficult to cover all of the market.
by Ethelred
Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Labor department changes rules on ESG investing
Replies: 37
Views: 2101

Re: Labor department changes rules on ESG investing

If the DoL's primary intention for this change was to maximize return for retirement savings of the US worker, as they state, it would seem obvious that they would legislate directly against the use of investments with high expense ratios. They have not.
by Ethelred
Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for retirement. What is this study missing?
Replies: 31
Views: 3001

Re: Investing for retirement. What is this study missing?

KlangFool wrote: Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:17 pmEthelred,

And, my point is that second-order control is not big enough to matter. You will find this out as soon as you create a spreadsheet and analyze it.

KlangFool
I don't need to do it myself, the backtesting done by ERN is fine. Please read the link, then come back to me if you have any questions.

Here it is again: https://earlyretirementnow.com/2016/12/ ... t-1-intro/
by Ethelred
Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for retirement. What is this study missing?
Replies: 31
Views: 3001

Re: Investing for retirement. What is this study missing?

Ethelred, Still does not change my point. 1% difference in the annual return is not big enough to matter for almost anyone with a portfolio that is not big enough. The only way to make a big difference is to increase saving and/or reduce expenses. If you disagree, show me your calculation. KlangFool Your point is that backtests of 70/30 looks similar to 100/0. Your point is not helpful, because it's a strawman. No-one in this thread is claiming that 70/30 doesn't work. 50/50 and below is roughly where lower bond returns start to have a big impact. If you want to see calculations, look at the link in my previous post. There is a lot of information there. Let me be clear, though, I completely agree that the biggest difference comes from savi...
by Ethelred
Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for retirement. What is this study missing?
Replies: 31
Views: 3001

Re: Investing for retirement. What is this study missing?

Callisto, Mathematically, that is not possible. The average annual return difference between 100/0 and 70/30 is only 1% per year. Even with 30% changes in the equity allocation, the difference is only 1% per year. It is not big enough to matter. Please use a spreadsheet and work out the numbers. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/saving-investing/model-portfolio-allocations KlangFool So, there's two problems here: 1. Bonds are generally the lower risk investment than stocks, but they can still be a source of sequence of returns risk. Sequence of returns are controlled by the variation in return, not by the average annual return. It might still be correct that, under backtesting, the difference between 100/0 and 70/30 is "not bi...
by Ethelred
Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Energy & Oil
Replies: 91
Views: 8186

Re: Vanguard Energy & Oil

abuss368 wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:50 am Jim Cramer is on CNBC right now discussing the “wind down of Exxon Mobil” and future of oil and energy.
None of the oil companies are doing well right now, but EM are not going anywhere in the short term. Jim Cramer is verbal clickbait.
by Ethelred
Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Energy & Oil
Replies: 91
Views: 8186

Re: Vanguard Energy & Oil

Wow 40% off VDE in just two companies. Can’t believe that ETF’s exist that are this top-heavy. What a weird way to invest. To each his own, I guess. That is market weight, at least approximately. For a very long time, oil companies have been divided into the majors, with integrated upstream and downstream, and independents, who are generally smaller and don't have their own downstream assets (refineries etc.) The last downturn, around 2000, multiple mergers increased concentration, and it's become larger again in the last year, as many of the US independents focused on shale have been heavily hit by the lower oil prices. International energy ETFs are not quite so concentrated. ExxonMobil and Chevron are two of the biggest majors, but the r...
by Ethelred
Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe on EMH and why Persistent Outperformance Is Hard To Find
Replies: 8
Views: 1128

Re: Swedroe on EMH and why Persistent Outperformance Is Hard To Find

Seasonal wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:19 pmIf you can't identify skilled managers, the possible existence and persistence of skilled managers doesn't do you much good.
Yes, that's true of course.

But my point is that the argument you quoted is a step beyond that. It isn't another, unrelated, argument against active management, it only works if you can identify skilled managers.
by Ethelred
Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe on EMH and why Persistent Outperformance Is Hard To Find
Replies: 8
Views: 1128

Re: Swedroe on EMH and why Persistent Outperformance Is Hard To Find

Includes the following. A similar story could be told about stocks, asset classes or portfolio strategies generating high returns. In his paper, "Five Myths of Active Management" Jonathan Berk, professor at the University of California, Berkeley, suggested the following thought process: "Who gets money to manage? Well, as investors know who the skilled managers are, money will flow to the best manager first. Eventually, this manager will receive so much money that it will impact the manager's ability to generate superior returns and expected return will be driven down to the second-best manager's expected return. At that point, investors will be indifferent between investing with either manager, so funds will flow to both ma...
by Ethelred
Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MLPs - A Word of Caution [Master Limited Partnership]
Replies: 35
Views: 3777

Re: MLPs - A Word of Caution

nisiprius wrote: Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:38 pmThis certainly fits the pattern of several asset classes that backtested magnificently until ETFs and mutual funds for them became available.
I'm pretty sure that's a coincidence, the pattern is much more likely to be controlled by oil price. Try the same plot (or AMZX) plotted with WTI.
by Ethelred
Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Energy & Oil
Replies: 91
Views: 8186

Re: Vanguard Energy & Oil

Here is a link to last week's thread on VDE:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=327715

How much has changed since then? Not a lot.
by Ethelred
Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block 2020 software offer
Replies: 426
Views: 43478

Re: Tax software

I just received an email offering H&R Block Deluxe federal only for $25, $20 off. Last year I had an offer for $25 at the end of October, and the year before I bought if for less than $20 on Amazon at the end of the year. I will probably wait, and check for offers at around Thanksgiving and the end of the year.

Maybe a mod can rename this to be the 2020 H&R Block thread?
by Ethelred
Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Chasers Rejoice: Oil Stocks at 6.44% !!!
Replies: 52
Views: 6491

Re: Yield Chasers Rejoice: Oil Stocks at 6.44% !!!

Specifically on US fracking, what has happened is what economics predicts would happen. You get a fragmented industry w no way to create a monopoly (contrast to say Google, or any number of other markets where competition is down to 3-4 players at most, say cellphone subscriptions). So the producer on the margin makes no economic profit. I.e. they only return the costs of production (revenues from existing production - exploration for new oil and gas& other costs). The wheat farmer in all our ECON 101 lectures. For conventional oil & gas, the profit is squeezed out in the national auctions for mineral rights that take place. On average, the winning bidder overpays. Where the frackers got that money is interesting. I think a big par...
by Ethelred
Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Chasers Rejoice: Oil Stocks at 6.44% !!!
Replies: 52
Views: 6491

Re: Yield Chasers Rejoice: Oil Stocks at 6.44% !!!

Random Poster wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:53 pm There’s a really good reason for that statement: Despite years of saying that they will live within their cash flow and saying that they will be profitable and saying that they will pay down debt and so on, very few (if any?) of the shale company CEOs have actually done so.

How such executives still have their jobs is beyond me.
Yes, that's a question that the employees of many of the oil companies have been asking for years now.
by Ethelred
Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Chasers Rejoice: Oil Stocks at 6.44% !!!
Replies: 52
Views: 6491

Re: Yield Chasers Rejoice: Oil Stocks at 6.44% !!!

The last sustained disaster in the oil industry was around 1997/98 and the Asia crash, I believe. When oil got to $10/bl. And the oil companies staged the largest mergers in their histories. Exxon bought Mobil. BP bought Amoco. Drilling for barrels of oil in the stock market became a cheaper form of exploration than drilling for barrels of oil via exploration. That, again, may signal the turn. When the big oil companies start making acquisitions. I remember those years. I was only a couple of years out of university/college and I had several friends affected - BP/Arco, Chevron/Texaco, Conoco/Phillips, Conoco->Burlington->British Borneo and Shell/Enterprise were all big deals too. I think we're already in the middle of that process for this...
by Ethelred
Mon Oct 05, 2020 5:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Feedback/Tips -Texas to Grand Canyon to Utah and Back
Replies: 26
Views: 1811

Re: Feedback/Tips -Texas to Grand Canyon to Utah and Back

We took a 4-night family trip just after New Year in 2012. Flew Houston to Las Vegas. Stayed in Las Vegas, Tusayan (just south of the Grand Canyon) and Sedona on the way, then flew back from Phoenix. The Grand Canyon was beautiful in the snow and relatively quiet, and we enjoyed Sedona, but we realized that the weather was a risk.

I would not attempt to drive the distance you plan in 8 days. For me that's closer to a 3-week trip.
by Ethelred
Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 401k/IRA Why is everything so complicated?
Replies: 17
Views: 2143

Re: 401k/IRA Why is everything so complicated?

shess wrote: Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:23 am
Tracker968 wrote: Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:17 am I just checked the plan documents. It says I can contribute up to 100%. I'm planning on doing that for the last two months of the year. Just need to watch my hours to make sure I don't go over $26k.
Most likely they'll stop the contributions automatically at $26k.
My understanding is both items depend on how the plan is set up.

My old 401k allowed a maximum contribution of 50% of salary, but my wife's is different. My old 401k automatically stopped contributions at the employee contribution limit, whereas my wife's sets any further contributions as after-tax, which can potentially be converted to Roth contributions.
by Ethelred
Sat Oct 03, 2020 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Robot vacuum cleaner for hardwood floor?
Replies: 46
Views: 6285

Re: Robot vacuum cleaner for hardwood floor?

We just went through this. We read reviews, then I bought a Roomba 675, which was $250 at best buy two weeks ago. The iRobot Roombas seem to be most reliable and best supported of the different options. We liked the 675, but decided that our house is too big for a bump model (where the vacuum spends most of its time moving in a random direction until it hits something). Best buy have a 15-day return policy, so we took it back, then picked up the Roomba i8+ from Costco for $700. This is a mapping model that can remember multiple floors, and has better suction than the base models, plus it comes with a trash can in the base station so you don't have to empty the vacuum every day. It's equivalent to the i7+ model available elsewhere, but $100 ...
by Ethelred
Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fund Management: An Emotional Finance Perspective
Replies: 3
Views: 558

Re: Fund Management: An Emotional Finance Perspective

Thanks for posting this, and your detailed summary, it's definitely thought-provoking.
by Ethelred
Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Daughter getting job in the UK and tax/IRA implications
Replies: 19
Views: 2300

Re: Daughter getting job in the UK and tax/IRA implications

The UK has several different retirement savings vehicles, both defined contribution and defined benefit. Retirement schemes are often called pensions. What's available will depend in part in her employer, but some things are available to all. Some are more suitable for US citizens than others - for example ISAs are tax-free for most UK residents, but not recognized as tax-free by the IRS, since they aren't only for retirement. Interpretation of the UK/US tax treaty can get complicated.

It's been a while since I lived in the UK, and I wasn't a US citizen then, so I can't give you too many details.

I believe there's quite a lot of info available at the UK Yankee forum, though I'm not sure how active it is now.
by Ethelred
Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil ETF VDE
Replies: 26
Views: 3105

Re: Oil ETF VDE

I'm considering a buy in tax advantaged too. First, we get a 5% dividend yield (which in an IRA is tax free). Of course that Div could be cut but it's highly unlikely to be cut down to the .6% 10 yr treasury yields. So I think of VDE as more of a bond replacement. Instead of my low yielding bond holdings, I'll swap to XLE/VDE and get 5%while I wait for NAV to (possibly) recover. Second, WTI is used for more than just gasoline (although gasoline usage is #1). It is used for jet fuel, heating, diesel fuel for farm equipment, plastics, asphalt, etc. Figure 30% is used for non-gasoline purposes. Finally, I'm considering XLE instead of VDE as it's outperformed VDE since inception (and over 3, 5, 10, 15 yr time periods as well). I'm going to gue...
by Ethelred
Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fascinating take on a rebalanced Permanent Portfolio - BreakingTheMarket.com
Replies: 134
Views: 25085

Re: Fascinating take on a rebalanced Permanent Portfolio - BreakingTheMarket.com

It's an interesting blog, but I am sceptical to some extent. I'm not sure all of his assumptions are reasonable, and I don't think economists do concentrate on arithmetic averages of growth rate instead of compound to the extent he claims. That said, the CAGR and maximum drawdown he claims from back testing are consistent and very impressive.

I too was unable to find the actual algorithm he used, but the inputs seem to be current returns, current volatility (standard deviation?) and current correlation between each asset. Not sure if current means daily or a shorter period than that.
by Ethelred
Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Crazy? S-corp renting your own property tax-free for 14 days?
Replies: 12
Views: 1969

Re: Crazy? S-corp renting your own property tax-free for 14 days?

fabdog wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:44 pm You're not offering training... you're offering a free workshop. If the IRS comes calling, what's the business purpose of this? They will likely view it as you described it... a way to write the rental off your company taxes and move income to your personal account.

Mike
This. Legitimate business expenses are costs that are incurred in order to make a profit.
by Ethelred
Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bogleheads in Oil and Gas?
Replies: 38
Views: 4067

Re: Bogleheads in Oil and Gas?

I am in upstream, on the technical side, and so is my wife. She is still working and has never been laid off, but my old company (a US independent) finally got me last year after the sale of the assets I was working on, in their fourth round of layoffs since the price crash. Since then, I've found some contracting work, but I'd prefer a permanent role. My old company is still making losses, and had another large round of layoffs this year. That said, my family has done well financially from the industry, partly through luck. In 2012, I had most of my net worth in company stock awards, but I was starting to learn about the basics of investing. We ended up selling some of them in 2012 and 2013, but we got a hunch that oil supply was getting t...
by Ethelred
Fri Sep 13, 2019 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Managing joint finances when one is a perfectionist
Replies: 122
Views: 10394

Re: Managing joint finances when one is a perfectionist

Having one spouse manage all bills and finances is not a big deal, though it's better if both know the basics of what's there. Disagreeing over spending is often a big deal and can easily break marriages, especially if one spouse is not able to live below the joint income.
by Ethelred
Fri Sep 13, 2019 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whistleblowing / Going Rogue at Work
Replies: 122
Views: 9435

Re: Whistleblowing / Going Rogue at Work

Why do I deserve to get fired? I've told the (now) president for the past year that the company has been wasting tons of $ and trying to just paint a rosey picture. Also have provided guidance and insight into how to right the ship. I'm senior enough and close enough to the project that I have 100% the clear picture of what's going on. What's been delivered, what's fallen short, timelines, budgets. Everything - or very damn close. And I'm not just going "above my boss' head". My boss and I often talk about how this project is a disaster. Everyone knows it's a disaster but technically it's my leadership (ie alignment within the organization) that is delivering this project so if I speak up, you just get shutdown and viewed as the ...
by Ethelred
Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Laser or inkjet
Replies: 58
Views: 4727

Re: Laser or inkjet

We used to have a cheap color inkjet, HP I think. We didn't use it often, but the cartridges still needed replacing. After a long spell without use, I decided to replace it with a B&W laser. Brother HL-L2300D cost me $60 on Amazon, it's often that price, but currently $100. Not sure why you'd want an inkjet at today's prices.
by Ethelred
Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Manager is Interviewing Candidates (External) before Job is posted
Replies: 57
Views: 6921

Re: Manager is Interviewing Candidates (External) before Job is posted

bigtex wrote: Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:24 am
wilked wrote: Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:56 am OP, do you have regular 1:1 meetings with your manager where you talk personal development and career goals?
Yes they are scheduled, but he always cancels them because he is too busy.
I recommend you start actively looking to leave his group or leave the company. A manager who repeatedly doesn't have time to manage his staff and develop their careers is not someone you want to work for, promoted or not.
by Ethelred
Mon Dec 31, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block 2018 Tax Software Deluxe $18.00 - Black Friday sale
Replies: 314
Views: 44803

Re: H&R Block 2018 Tax Software Deluxe $18.00 - Black Friday sale

I just paid $15 for Deluxe download (no state) at Amazon. I'm guessing they dropped prices to match Walmart.
by Ethelred
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block 2018 Tax Software Deluxe $18.00 - Black Friday sale
Replies: 314
Views: 44803

Re: H&R Block 2018 Tax Software Deluxe Federal + State $29.95

I have an email for Premium (the self-employed version) for $49.95. That's without the download service, but with state filing, which I don't need.

Last year, I paid $25 for the same product, with state filing, in late December. I don't remember why state was included, maybe it was necessary for the deal then?

That email is double what I paid last year. I'm going to see what's available at Black Friday and later.
by Ethelred
Sat Apr 14, 2018 9:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Advice [Do I need an MBA to change career from geology to finance?]
Replies: 8
Views: 1883

Re: Petroleum Geologist needing advice

I think you might want to change your thread title. I just read through thinking I could help you with some aspect of geology, then at the end realized your question is actually "Do I need an MBA to change to a finance career, or is my current experience enough?" And I don't know the answer to that question.

I do wonder if you'd do better to ask this to some of the investment bankers you've met through your consulting work.
by Ethelred
Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ--Fidelity Is Revamping How It Charges You for Financial Advice
Replies: 14
Views: 2888

Re: WSJ--Fidelity Is Revamping How It Charges You for Financial Advice

Dottie57 wrote: Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:58 amWow!

I have almost everything at Fidelity. IRA, Roth, Taxable. If they start charging fees like that, I will be gone like the wind.
This article isn't relevant for most Bogleheads. It's not for DIY investors, it's for people who use their "wealth management services".

And it looks like they're claiming it's somehow to make their fee structure more transparent, when it's actually to try to push investors into solely using Fidelity products.
by Ethelred
Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets tilt
Replies: 37
Views: 7995

Re: Emerging markets tilt

I did a very weak and crude backtest (only a few years) to compare: 100% Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) — this is supposed to represent an untilted global portfolio. 90% iShares MSCI World ETF (URTH) + 10% Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) — this is an attempt to replicate VT by blending a non-EM + an EM fund in the appropriate proportions. 83.9% iShares MSCI World ETF (URTH) + 16.1% Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) — this one is a somewhat arbitrary tilt to EM. Like I said, the test is weak (super short, and even if it wasn't, past performance doesn't predict future performance), so the differences are basically meaningless: Portfolio Initial Final CAGR Stdev Best Year Worst Year Max. Drawdown Sharpe Ratio Portfolio 1 ...