Search found 382 matches

by Ethelred
Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Power of Working Longer
Replies: 520
Views: 42248

Re: The Power of Working Longer

Well, it seems you are assuming that the activities in retirement would be more gratifying than the work. The marginal "cost" of continuing to work may be negative. That is, if one would rather be working than retired, then one would add the benefit of working to the income to come up wit...
by Ethelred
Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Power of Working Longer
Replies: 520
Views: 42248

Re: The Power of Working Longer

IMO most posters are missing the point of the paper. The paper isn't saying don't save much per year and more than make up for that low saving rate by planning on working a long time. Instead, the paper is answering the following question. As you get very near to your retirement date, is it worthwh...
by Ethelred
Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4587
Views: 235008

Re: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]

It doesn't look like a pump and dump from the definition on the SEC's website ... "Pump and dump" schemes have two parts. In the first, promoters try to boost the price of a stock with false or misleading statements about the company. Once the stock price has been pumped up, fraudsters mo...
by Ethelred
Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4587
Views: 235008

Re: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]

I'm going to hold my judgement. Too convenient that this is another assault on US institutions by random people on social media manipulating the behaviors of others. I hope I'm wrong. Foreign actors have figured out that laws for US citizens operating in the US are different than for non-US citizen...
by Ethelred
Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low cost Chinese S&P500 type funds?
Replies: 27
Views: 2652

Re: Low cost Chinese S&P500 type funds?

I agree with large parts of your thesis, but you seem to be assuming both that an individual American is able to safely invest in China, and moreover that index funds are the way to do it. You may be right, but you should not just assume. China has become a very powerful country, but their laws and ...
by Ethelred
Mon Jan 18, 2021 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corsera-Finance-Yale-Shiller
Replies: 3
Views: 600

Re: Corsera-Finance-Yale-Shiller

"Starts today" just means that you can start as soon as you enroll. Tomorrow, it will also "start today". This is the way most courses with Coursera/EdX etc. work.
by Ethelred
Tue Dec 29, 2020 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No big moves
Replies: 64
Views: 4321

Re: No big moves

Is anybody else here like me in that they are uncomfortable with and therefore avoid big changes to their portfolio? The disconnect here is that your actions are the opposite of "no big moves". By never rebalancing, you are gradually making a very big change to your portfolio, allowing it...
by Ethelred
Thu Dec 10, 2020 7:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Relocation to Houston, Texas from SF Bay - Advice
Replies: 102
Views: 9048

Re: Relocation to Houston, Texas from SF Bay - Advice

Oof. Woodlands to Katy would be a miserable commute. Not sure how long you've been out of Houston, but it's been at least possible since the NW section of 99 finished construction between I-10 West and I-45 North in 2016, and I used to commute over part of it. I do agree, though, I'd never recommen...
by Ethelred
Thu Dec 10, 2020 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Relocation to Houston, Texas from SF Bay - Advice
Replies: 102
Views: 9048

Re: Relocation to Houston, Texas from SF Bay - Advice

You will be fine in every aspect you mention. You say you have two young kids and your social life revolves around them. Just live in Katy and send your kids to the schools there. There are excellent suburban restaurants and shopping there. There are plenty of moderate Republican/Libertarians in the...
by Ethelred
Thu Dec 03, 2020 1:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are lifecycle funds so equity-heavy?
Replies: 67
Views: 5117

Re: Why are lifecycle funds so equity-heavy?

Here’s another interesting paper Estrada just published, broadly confirming the commons sense notion of a declining glidepath due to changes in risk aversion and human capital over time: https://blog.iese.edu/jestrada/files/2020/04/TDFGRA.pdf Target-date funds feature asset allocations that become ...
by Ethelred
Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are lifecycle funds so equity-heavy?
Replies: 67
Views: 5117

Re: Why are lifecycle funds so equity-heavy?

Javier Estrada's article entitled " The Glidepath Illusion: an International Perspective " is an interesting read for those interested in this subject. He compares a variety of glidepaths - lifecycle (age in bonds), contrarian (i.e., the mirror/opposite of lifecycle), balanced funds, all ...
by Ethelred
Fri Nov 27, 2020 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block 2020 software offer
Replies: 426
Views: 33743

Re: H&R Block 2020 software offer

This may or may not help. I’ve had some problems with buying at Walmart online recently with Chrome. If you are using Chrome try another browser like MS Edge. Not sure what my issue is. Edge works fine and I am still having problems with Chrome. Thanks. Yes, I just tried Edge before you sent this, ...
by Ethelred
Fri Nov 27, 2020 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block 2020 software offer
Replies: 426
Views: 33743

Re: H&R Block 2020 software offer

The current Walmart price of $17-50 for Deluxe (no state) is the cheapest I've ever paid. Not sure why it says it's reduced from $24-97. The only problem is that I get an error message when I try to add it to the cart.
by Ethelred
Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Position Recently Eliminated - Next Steps and Career Advice
Replies: 13
Views: 1988

Re: Position Recently Eliminated - Next Steps and Career Advice

401k 50k S&P 500 Fund (very low expense ratio) TIRA 90k VTTSX Roth IRA 68k VTTSX HSA 25k VTTSX 2) After I am terminated, assuming I should roll the 401k into the TIRA? Maybe I should do some roth conversions if I end up having a low income year in 2021? There is usually no urgent reason to move...
by Ethelred
Thu Nov 19, 2020 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying half a house
Replies: 78
Views: 7263

Re: Buying half a house

There is no big family Thanksgiving this year and it's just going to be me and mom and a nice dinner for two (I plan to visit her). Maybe that will be a good time to sit and just talk to her about this in more detail. Would it be wrong of me to try to just talk her into changing her will to leaving...
by Ethelred
Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: After 37 Years, Value Manager AJO Is Shuttering. It Won’t Be the Last.
Replies: 43
Views: 5639

Re: After 37 Years, Value Manager AJO Is Shuttering. It Won’t Be the Last.

Yes, I have read the article myself numerous times and have referred to it. The point is that negative sentiment is ultimately good for stocks. As I recall, this was not a perfect point in time to get back into stocks, it was maybe 3-4 years after the publishing of the article that the stock market...
by Ethelred
Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Risk tolerance plummeted to zero, now what?
Replies: 32
Views: 3251

Re: Risk tolerance plummeted to zero, now what?

Sometimes, perhaps even often, the answer to financial anxiety is not dialing back on stock allocation, it is logic, financial education and thinking through "What's the worst that actually could happen?" My family is in a fairly similar situation to yours, though your income and net worth...
by Ethelred
Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is there a better meta-review site than Wirecutter?
Replies: 30
Views: 3399

Re: Is there a better meta-review site than Wirecutter?

For TVs, computer monitors and computer accessories, https://www.rtings.com/ is better than any other site I've seen. They have extended what they cover this year, and now also include soundbars, vacuums and blenders. The best sites do have one potential drawback, though: if you purchase all your ow...
by Ethelred
Tue Nov 03, 2020 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Labor department changes rules on ESG investing
Replies: 37
Views: 1707

Re: Labor department changes rules on ESG investing

If the DoL's primary intention for this change was to maximize return for retirement savings of the US worker, as they state, it would seem obvious that they would legislate directly against the use of investments with high expense ratios. They have not.
by Ethelred
Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for retirement. What is this study missing?
Replies: 31
Views: 2731

Re: Investing for retirement. What is this study missing?

Ethelred, And, my point is that second-order control is not big enough to matter. You will find this out as soon as you create a spreadsheet and analyze it. KlangFool I don't need to do it myself, the backtesting done by ERN is fine. Please read the link, then come back to me if you have any questi...
by Ethelred
Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for retirement. What is this study missing?
Replies: 31
Views: 2731

Re: Investing for retirement. What is this study missing?

Ethelred, Still does not change my point. 1% difference in the annual return is not big enough to matter for almost anyone with a portfolio that is not big enough. The only way to make a big difference is to increase saving and/or reduce expenses. If you disagree, show me your calculation. KlangFoo...
by Ethelred
Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for retirement. What is this study missing?
Replies: 31
Views: 2731

Re: Investing for retirement. What is this study missing?

Callisto, Mathematically, that is not possible. The average annual return difference between 100/0 and 70/30 is only 1% per year. Even with 30% changes in the equity allocation, the difference is only 1% per year. It is not big enough to matter. Please use a spreadsheet and work out the numbers. ht...
by Ethelred
Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Energy & Oil
Replies: 91
Views: 7028

Re: Vanguard Energy & Oil

abuss368 wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:50 am Jim Cramer is on CNBC right now discussing the “wind down of Exxon Mobil” and future of oil and energy.
None of the oil companies are doing well right now, but EM are not going anywhere in the short term. Jim Cramer is verbal clickbait.
by Ethelred
Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Energy & Oil
Replies: 91
Views: 7028

Re: Vanguard Energy & Oil

Wow 40% off VDE in just two companies. Can’t believe that ETF’s exist that are this top-heavy. What a weird way to invest. To each his own, I guess. That is market weight, at least approximately. For a very long time, oil companies have been divided into the majors, with integrated upstream and dow...
by Ethelred
Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe on EMH and why Persistent Outperformance Is Hard To Find
Replies: 8
Views: 1001

Re: Swedroe on EMH and why Persistent Outperformance Is Hard To Find

If you can't identify skilled managers, the possible existence and persistence of skilled managers doesn't do you much good. Yes, that's true of course. But my point is that the argument you quoted is a step beyond that. It isn't another, unrelated, argument against active management, it only works...
by Ethelred
Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe on EMH and why Persistent Outperformance Is Hard To Find
Replies: 8
Views: 1001

Re: Swedroe on EMH and why Persistent Outperformance Is Hard To Find

Includes the following. A similar story could be told about stocks, asset classes or portfolio strategies generating high returns. In his paper, "Five Myths of Active Management" Jonathan Berk, professor at the University of California, Berkeley, suggested the following thought process: &...
by Ethelred
Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MLPs - A Word of Caution [Master Limited Partnership]
Replies: 35
Views: 3132

Re: MLPs - A Word of Caution

nisiprius wrote: Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:38 pmThis certainly fits the pattern of several asset classes that backtested magnificently until ETFs and mutual funds for them became available.
I'm pretty sure that's a coincidence, the pattern is much more likely to be controlled by oil price. Try the same plot (or AMZX) plotted with WTI.
by Ethelred
Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Energy & Oil
Replies: 91
Views: 7028

Re: Vanguard Energy & Oil

Here is a link to last week's thread on VDE:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=327715

How much has changed since then? Not a lot.
by Ethelred
Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block 2020 software offer
Replies: 426
Views: 33743

Re: Tax software

I just received an email offering H&R Block Deluxe federal only for $25, $20 off. Last year I had an offer for $25 at the end of October, and the year before I bought if for less than $20 on Amazon at the end of the year. I will probably wait, and check for offers at around Thanksgiving and the ...
by Ethelred
Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Chasers Rejoice: Oil Stocks at 6.44% !!!
Replies: 52
Views: 5749

Re: Yield Chasers Rejoice: Oil Stocks at 6.44% !!!

Specifically on US fracking, what has happened is what economics predicts would happen. You get a fragmented industry w no way to create a monopoly (contrast to say Google, or any number of other markets where competition is down to 3-4 players at most, say cellphone subscriptions). So the producer...
by Ethelred
Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Chasers Rejoice: Oil Stocks at 6.44% !!!
Replies: 52
Views: 5749

Re: Yield Chasers Rejoice: Oil Stocks at 6.44% !!!

There’s a really good reason for that statement: Despite years of saying that they will live within their cash flow and saying that they will be profitable and saying that they will pay down debt and so on, very few (if any?) of the shale company CEOs have actually done so. How such executives stil...
by Ethelred
Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Chasers Rejoice: Oil Stocks at 6.44% !!!
Replies: 52
Views: 5749

Re: Yield Chasers Rejoice: Oil Stocks at 6.44% !!!

The last sustained disaster in the oil industry was around 1997/98 and the Asia crash, I believe. When oil got to $10/bl. And the oil companies staged the largest mergers in their histories. Exxon bought Mobil. BP bought Amoco. Drilling for barrels of oil in the stock market became a cheaper form o...
by Ethelred
Mon Oct 05, 2020 5:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Feedback/Tips -Texas to Grand Canyon to Utah and Back
Replies: 26
Views: 1583

Re: Feedback/Tips -Texas to Grand Canyon to Utah and Back

We took a 4-night family trip just after New Year in 2012. Flew Houston to Las Vegas. Stayed in Las Vegas, Tusayan (just south of the Grand Canyon) and Sedona on the way, then flew back from Phoenix. The Grand Canyon was beautiful in the snow and relatively quiet, and we enjoyed Sedona, but we reali...
by Ethelred
Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 401k/IRA Why is everything so complicated?
Replies: 17
Views: 1934

Re: 401k/IRA Why is everything so complicated?

I just checked the plan documents. It says I can contribute up to 100%. I'm planning on doing that for the last two months of the year. Just need to watch my hours to make sure I don't go over $26k. Most likely they'll stop the contributions automatically at $26k. My understanding is both items dep...
by Ethelred
Sat Oct 03, 2020 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Robot vacuum cleaner for hardwood floor?
Replies: 46
Views: 4184

Re: Robot vacuum cleaner for hardwood floor?

We just went through this. We read reviews, then I bought a Roomba 675, which was $250 at best buy two weeks ago. The iRobot Roombas seem to be most reliable and best supported of the different options. We liked the 675, but decided that our house is too big for a bump model (where the vacuum spends...
by Ethelred
Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fund Management: An Emotional Finance Perspective
Replies: 3
Views: 472

Re: Fund Management: An Emotional Finance Perspective

Thanks for posting this, and your detailed summary, it's definitely thought-provoking.
by Ethelred
Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Daughter getting job in the UK and tax/IRA implications
Replies: 19
Views: 2029

Re: Daughter getting job in the UK and tax/IRA implications

The UK has several different retirement savings vehicles, both defined contribution and defined benefit. Retirement schemes are often called pensions. What's available will depend in part in her employer, but some things are available to all. Some are more suitable for US citizens than others - for ...
by Ethelred
Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil ETF VDE
Replies: 26
Views: 2641

Re: Oil ETF VDE

I'm considering a buy in tax advantaged too. First, we get a 5% dividend yield (which in an IRA is tax free). Of course that Div could be cut but it's highly unlikely to be cut down to the .6% 10 yr treasury yields. So I think of VDE as more of a bond replacement. Instead of my low yielding bond ho...
by Ethelred
Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fascinating take on a rebalanced Permanent Portfolio - BreakingTheMarket.com
Replies: 133
Views: 20817

Re: Fascinating take on a rebalanced Permanent Portfolio - BreakingTheMarket.com

It's an interesting blog, but I am sceptical to some extent. I'm not sure all of his assumptions are reasonable, and I don't think economists do concentrate on arithmetic averages of growth rate instead of compound to the extent he claims. That said, the CAGR and maximum drawdown he claims from back...
by Ethelred
Wed Nov 06, 2019 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Crazy? S-corp renting your own property tax-free for 14 days?
Replies: 12
Views: 1289

Re: Crazy? S-corp renting your own property tax-free for 14 days?

You're not offering training... you're offering a free workshop. If the IRS comes calling, what's the business purpose of this? They will likely view it as you described it... a way to write the rental off your company taxes and move income to your personal account. Mike This. Legitimate business e...
by Ethelred
Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bogleheads in Oil and Gas?
Replies: 38
Views: 3598

Re: Bogleheads in Oil and Gas?

I am in upstream, on the technical side, and so is my wife. She is still working and has never been laid off, but my old company (a US independent) finally got me last year after the sale of the assets I was working on, in their fourth round of layoffs since the price crash. Since then, I've found s...
by Ethelred
Fri Sep 13, 2019 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Managing joint finances when one is a perfectionist
Replies: 122
Views: 8886

Re: Managing joint finances when one is a perfectionist

Having one spouse manage all bills and finances is not a big deal, though it's better if both know the basics of what's there. Disagreeing over spending is often a big deal and can easily break marriages, especially if one spouse is not able to live below the joint income.
by Ethelred
Fri Sep 13, 2019 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whistleblowing / Going Rogue at Work
Replies: 122
Views: 7085

Re: Whistleblowing / Going Rogue at Work

Why do I deserve to get fired? I've told the (now) president for the past year that the company has been wasting tons of $ and trying to just paint a rosey picture. Also have provided guidance and insight into how to right the ship. I'm senior enough and close enough to the project that I have 100%...
by Ethelred
Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Laser or inkjet
Replies: 58
Views: 3857

Re: Laser or inkjet

We used to have a cheap color inkjet, HP I think. We didn't use it often, but the cartridges still needed replacing. After a long spell without use, I decided to replace it with a B&W laser. Brother HL-L2300D cost me $60 on Amazon, it's often that price, but currently $100. Not sure why you'd wa...
by Ethelred
Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Manager is Interviewing Candidates (External) before Job is posted
Replies: 57
Views: 6177

Re: Manager is Interviewing Candidates (External) before Job is posted

OP, do you have regular 1:1 meetings with your manager where you talk personal development and career goals? Yes they are scheduled, but he always cancels them because he is too busy. I recommend you start actively looking to leave his group or leave the company. A manager who repeatedly doesn't ha...
by Ethelred
Mon Dec 31, 2018 7:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block 2018 Tax Software Deluxe $18.00 - Black Friday sale
Replies: 314
Views: 40385

Re: H&R Block 2018 Tax Software Deluxe $18.00 - Black Friday sale

I just paid $15 for Deluxe download (no state) at Amazon. I'm guessing they dropped prices to match Walmart.
by Ethelred
Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block 2018 Tax Software Deluxe $18.00 - Black Friday sale
Replies: 314
Views: 40385

Re: H&R Block 2018 Tax Software Deluxe Federal + State $29.95

I have an email for Premium (the self-employed version) for $49.95. That's without the download service, but with state filing, which I don't need. Last year, I paid $25 for the same product, with state filing, in late December. I don't remember why state was included, maybe it was necessary for the...
by Ethelred
Sat Apr 14, 2018 9:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Advice [Do I need an MBA to change career from geology to finance?]
Replies: 8
Views: 1679

Re: Petroleum Geologist needing advice

I think you might want to change your thread title. I just read through thinking I could help you with some aspect of geology, then at the end realized your question is actually "Do I need an MBA to change to a finance career, or is my current experience enough?" And I don't know the answe...
by Ethelred
Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ--Fidelity Is Revamping How It Charges You for Financial Advice
Replies: 14
Views: 2766

Re: WSJ--Fidelity Is Revamping How It Charges You for Financial Advice

Wow! I have almost everything at Fidelity. IRA, Roth, Taxable. If they start charging fees like that, I will be gone like the wind. This article isn't relevant for most Bogleheads. It's not for DIY investors, it's for people who use their "wealth management services". And it looks like th...
by Ethelred
Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets tilt
Replies: 37
Views: 7168

Re: Emerging markets tilt

I did a very weak and crude backtest (only a few years) to compare: 100% Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) — this is supposed to represent an untilted global portfolio. 90% iShares MSCI World ETF (URTH) + 10% Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) — this is an attempt to replicate VT by blendin...