Search found 57 matches
- Mon Jan 23, 2023 8:46 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: TIPS in a FIRE portfolio?
- Replies: 22
- Views: 1673
Re: TIPS in a FIRE portfolio?
What is your current portfolio and your target SWR? I’m similar age with about 35 to 40% bonds, and may downshift this year. SWR may be around 3% or less. At a low enough SWR, historically a higher bond allocation has survived for 40+ years. For higher SWR of 3.5% or so, then I’d plan to be closer to 25% bonds. I’ve been maxing Series I bonds for over a decade but it’s only about 10% of the total bond allocation. The main fund is Vanguard Total Bond with some Intermediate Muni Bond, Intermediate Treasuries, and cash. I don’t currently have access to TIPS in 401k but I likely plan to add TIPS when I separate from the company. My current thoughts are to have my bond allocation 50/50 between nominal bonds and inflation protected bonds (I bonds...
- Thu Apr 07, 2022 9:32 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: US citizen marrying abroad
- Replies: 38
- Views: 4589
Re: US citizen marrying abroad
Foreign spouse is not a US Citizen or US Resident, which is a requirement to qualify for bona fide residence test: https://www.irs.gov/individuals/interna ... dence-test
- Thu Apr 07, 2022 9:28 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Does your bond strategy change based on interest rates?
- Replies: 21
- Views: 2020
Re: Does your bond strategy change based on interest rates?
I used to begrudgingly buy Series I Savings bonds at zero coupon (only inflation) while I also bought EE Bonds, Vanguard Total Bond, Vanguard Intermediate Treasuries.
Now I enjoy 10+ years of Series I Bonds yielding over 7%, and begrudgingly buy the other bonds that have fallen.
Don’t react by changing your plan to the latest and loudest market environment. Instead, have a plan that is already ready for change.
Diversification works, but human behavior makes it difficult to follow, because you will always be buying something you don’t want to be buying.
Now I enjoy 10+ years of Series I Bonds yielding over 7%, and begrudgingly buy the other bonds that have fallen.
Don’t react by changing your plan to the latest and loudest market environment. Instead, have a plan that is already ready for change.
Diversification works, but human behavior makes it difficult to follow, because you will always be buying something you don’t want to be buying.
- Mon Apr 04, 2022 12:55 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: US citizen marrying abroad
- Replies: 38
- Views: 4589
Re: US citizen marrying abroad
Seems like he should file as MFS and she should file with the foreign tax authority not the IRS. It doesn't make sense to choose Single or HofH or MFJ. If the spouse has no income, MFJ is a great choice as your brackets will be better for dividends and capital gains. If there is a child (or qualifying relative) and the wife has income, HofH works well. If the spouse has income, the MFS is probably best (but look at how much income and what the better brackets are worth). Of course, if the spouse has income, they should be filing with the foreign tax authority as well irregardless of whether MFS, MFJ or HofH is used. Be careful with MFJ with an NRA spouse since revoking it is a one-time decision. If in subsequent years you file MFS, you wil...
- Sat Feb 05, 2022 2:21 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Should I fight the IRS over a "dishonored check penalty"?
- Replies: 18
- Views: 2262
Re: Should I fight the IRS over a "dishonored check penalty"?
Estimated tax payments for the last 3+ years have been by direct debit from a checking account.sureshoe wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:15 am You should know if you bounced a check or not. Did you? If you are unsure - contact your bank and ask. If the bank has no record of a bounced check or payment, then (if you want to fight) contact the IRS and dispute the $50 charge. This gets it back to "normal". However, I find it very hard to believe you didn't have a bounce. The IRS certainly makes mistakes, but a bounced check is a very discrete "1 or 0" in their automated systems. My guess is your bank is going to be able to tell you what they rejected if you don't know.
- Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:23 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Should I fight the IRS over a "dishonored check penalty"?
- Replies: 18
- Views: 2262
Re: Should I fight the IRS over a "dishonored check penalty"?
Given what we are hearing about the IRS being understaffed and overworked, to the point where they are warning about big delays just for processing paper returns, this seems like an inauspicious time to tangle with them over complicated stories involving small amounts. And while it is infuriating that you didn't get to buy your paper series I savings bonds, it doesn't seem like a situation with a high probability of being remedied. If it were, say, 2014 or so, when the IRS answered the phone live, and could transfer you to someone with the right knowledge and authority within fifteen or twenty minutes, it might have been worth a shot. Today, in a situation like yours, I'd simply try to figure out whatever mental tricks to give myself permi...
- Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:50 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Should I fight the IRS over a "dishonored check penalty"?
- Replies: 18
- Views: 2262
Should I fight the IRS over a "dishonored check penalty"?
Hi Bogleheads, For my recent tax return, I attempted to overpay by $5,000 to purchase Series I savings bonds. After 6+ months without receipt of bonds (not too unreasonable a time frame for an expat with paper return during the pandemic), I had my CPA check status with the IRS. According to the IRS agent, the $5,000 tax overpayment used for purchasing the bonds was reduced due to a previously "dishonored check penalty" of about $50. As a result, the total net tax refund became was less than $5,000 and it "is not enough to purchase the Series I Bond" (apparently the minimum is US$5,000?) and therefor no bond certificate was issued. I was informed that I'd need to request the refund from the IRS. I did have a slight overpa...
- Sat Nov 21, 2020 6:55 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Muni bonds in taxable
- Replies: 27
- Views: 5241
Re: Muni bonds in taxable
I believe it was Allan Roth who had a rule of thumb to keep muni-bonds at about 20% the total bond/fixed income amount. Maybe you don't need to make any drastic changes, but gradually reduce the muni-bond allocation with new contributions. Here's my plan for new contributions: Max out retirement accounts (401k, Roth IRA, etc.). I prefer bonds in tax deferred, and stocks in taxable/Roth. I treat the whole portfolio as one asset allocation). If bond allocation can't fit into a taxable amount first goes into I Bonds and EE Bonds. I just started EE Bonds (the 3.53% return for 20 years is finally good enough). If I still need bonds required above these contribution limits then contribute to into 5 Yr CDs or muni-bonds depending on the after-tax ...
- Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:57 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Where do you get advice as you move up to the top of your field? (Taking on larger new role)
- Replies: 20
- Views: 2747
Re: Where do you get advice as you move up to the top of your field? (Taking on larger new role)
I'm not exactly multi-lingual in my host country, but I've found knowing "hello, please, and thank you" for any country I visit goes a long way.
- Sun Nov 08, 2020 7:13 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Where do you get advice as you move up to the top of your field? (Taking on larger new role)
- Replies: 20
- Views: 2747
Re: Where do you get advice as you move up to the top of your field? (Taking on larger new role)
There is a difference between mentoring, coaching and self development. initial professional success and advancement earlier in my career came directly following personal self development and mentoring by those directly in my field. However, mentoring reaches a ceiling and can become too narrow for more aspirational leaders because it is typicality hierarchical and constrained by inevitable human bias/ conflicts of interests because the mentor may have personal benefit from the mentees successful activities. Mentoring may need to be sought by those outside your typical sphere of influence or activity so as to receive objective feedback that has limited potential conflicts of interests. At some point a leader may benefit from external profe...
- Sun Nov 08, 2020 9:03 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Where do you get advice as you move up to the top of your field? (Taking on larger new role)
- Replies: 20
- Views: 2747
Re: Where do you get advice as you move up to the top of your field? (Taking on larger new role)
...You seem to have a good grasp on your new role. There is a big difference in managing a 100+ person organization versus 10 people. You will be managing (or leading) managers as opposed to individuals. You need to adjust your management style accordingly and avoid micro managing. Appreciate the kind words. I'm better at big picture thinking, planning and processes. I believe I can see what I need learn and get done, but I'm sure there will be surprises and blind spots. My concern is also that getting it done is always harder than the vision, and I'll be relying on a lot of other people to get things done because it would be impossible for me to attempt to do it all myself. I do struggle with micro-managing during delegation, but I'm gett...
- Sun Nov 08, 2020 8:41 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Where do you get advice as you move up to the top of your field? (Taking on larger new role)
- Replies: 20
- Views: 2747
Re: Where do you get advice as you move up to the top of your field? (Taking on larger new role)
markjk, TomatoTomahto, KlangFool, thank you for the reading recommendations! I've added to my list.
- Sun Nov 08, 2020 8:35 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Where do you get advice as you move up to the top of your field? (Taking on larger new role)
- Replies: 20
- Views: 2747
Re: Where do you get advice as you move up to the top of your field? (Taking on larger new role)
Do you know any engineering/management peer roundtables that would be online or forum based?AnotherMike wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 6:24 am Consider joining a peer group association or a peer roundtable through a business association and participate in development and networking opportunities — once we are back to live events it’s a great opportunity to step back from the daily crush and think more strategically/recharge.
My specific niche does have conferences, and I do participate in them, but we haven't had any events since the lockdown. It's also difficult that most are US based but I'm based overseas.
- Sun Nov 08, 2020 8:28 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Where do you get advice as you move up to the top of your field? (Taking on larger new role)
- Replies: 20
- Views: 2747
Re: Where do you get advice as you move up to the top of your field? (Taking on larger new role)
I can imagine the stress that might come along with developing the revenue generation of a group that size and it sounds like you will have your arms in every bucket. Is this a direct promotion? Did you market/sell in your previous position and were you accountable with regards to revenue? How many leaders will you be directly managing? Is there someone you are already targeting to transition into your previous role? I assume much of this new position will be travel based? I've been responsible for selling/managing multi-million dollar contracts each year. I suspect senior management assumes I can create equal success in other countries/markets. It's been a lot of hard work here, but I've also been lucky in my market. The other developing ...
- Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:53 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Where do you get advice as you move up to the top of your field? (Taking on larger new role)
- Replies: 20
- Views: 2747
Where do you get advice as you move up to the top of your field? (Taking on larger new role)
Hi Bogleheads, I've been successful in my current role managing an international team of engineering consultants. It's been a model of "do a lot of great work and make sure you get paid for it." I'll be transitioning to a role overseeing a much larger international team (from about 10 --> 100+ staff). I'll be reporting directly to the C-suite, and the name of the game will be revenue and profit growth. I'm curious if you have any advice or resources for this career move (e.g. books, courses, programs, coaching, forums, meetups, groups, etc.). There are fewer people in my network that I can ask for advice who have been in similar positions. If I were to break down the skills I'm looking to hone for the new role: Strategic thinking ...
- Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:11 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Expat Investing
- Replies: 3
- Views: 492
Re: Expat Investing
Hang Seng Index is way too concentrated in risk exposure. It may be fine to overweight Hang Seng Index relative to the world market weights, but only if you plan to stay in Hong Kong for an extended period. If you're only in Hong Kong for 4 years, then the MPF/TVC is not worth the effort and neither would be investing 100% in HSI. I've been an expat for over a decade and invest with Vanguard. I use a US address and a VPN that has US IP addresses. Do you have earned income, or do you exclude all income via FEIE and FHE (income and housing exclusions)? If you have earned income then you can contribute to an IRA (usually a Backdoor Roth IRA). That would be where my first investment dollars are contributed. Depending on your asset allocation, y...
- Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:54 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: US SCV & Int'l SCV: Vanguard in Taxable vs. DFA in 401k
- Replies: 1
- Views: 233
US SCV & Int'l SCV: Vanguard in Taxable vs. DFA in 401k
Hi Bogleheads, I recently TLH'd Vanguard US Small Cap Value (SCV) and Vanguard International SCV in my taxable account and bought the "equivalent" DFA funds in my 401k. The DFA funds are a relatively new fund choice in my 401k. I am trying to decide if DFA should be a permanent part of our portfolio, or if we should stick with Vanguard funds which we've been using since the beginning. There's limited 401k space (currently assets are 2/3 in taxable), and I can't choose the allocation between the 401k Traditional and Roth (I assume it's the same allocation across both account types). Is there any strong preference to one of these options: Option 1: Vanguard US SCV & Intl SCV Funds in Taxable / Vanguard Total Bond in 401k Pros: T...
- Sat Jun 27, 2020 6:52 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Outdated links referenced in "Living Off Your Money Workbook" (McClung)
- Replies: 7
- Views: 1687
Re: Outdated links referenced in "Living Off Your Money Workbook" (McClung)
Thanks!
The spreadsheet looks at several metrics to determine current US and world valuation levels relative to historic levels.
Q = 4 out of 4
iCAGR20 = 2 out of 4
CAPE10 = 4 out of 4
Overall US Valuation: 3.33 out of 4
Developed Market CAPE10: 3 out of 4
Emerging Markets CAPE10: 2 out of 4
Makes intuitive sense that the US is relatively expensive compared to international markets. All the more reason to consider an international component to overall asset allocation.
The spreadsheet looks at several metrics to determine current US and world valuation levels relative to historic levels.
Q = 4 out of 4
iCAGR20 = 2 out of 4
CAPE10 = 4 out of 4
Overall US Valuation: 3.33 out of 4
Developed Market CAPE10: 3 out of 4
Emerging Markets CAPE10: 2 out of 4
Makes intuitive sense that the US is relatively expensive compared to international markets. All the more reason to consider an international component to overall asset allocation.
- Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:45 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Outdated links referenced in "Living Off Your Money Workbook" (McClung)
- Replies: 7
- Views: 1687
Outdated links referenced in "Living Off Your Money Workbook" (McClung)
Hi Bogleheads, McClung's website (livingoffyourmoney.com) has a free spreadsheet to determine a qualitative initial valuation level for the US and global markets to determine a "safe" maximum starting withdrawal rate. Unfortunately the spreadsheet is from ~2014 and one of the links is outdated: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1r-5.pdf The PDF is intended to gather US "Market value of equities outstanding" and "Net worth (market value)" from the most recent quarter. I think it may be found by figuring out the Data Download packages, but I'm not exactly sure what I'm looking for: https://www.federalreserve.gov/datadownload/Choose.aspx?rel=z1 Does anyone know the latest source for this data? Tha...
- Wed May 13, 2020 6:08 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Turning 30. Living 30s without regrets
- Replies: 87
- Views: 11084
Re: Turning 30. Living 30s without regrets
- Wed May 13, 2020 3:59 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Turning 30. Living 30s without regrets
- Replies: 87
- Views: 11084
Re: Turning 30. Living 30s without regrets
I would add a few items:
Exercise regularly. Find a way to make exercise fun and preferably with a group of friends. Hike, run, weight lift, sports, etc.
Get enough sleep. It’s critical to mental and physical health.
Eat well. Your metabolism isn’t going to be operating like you remember it.
Be mindful. Enjoy where you are in life, and be present with your family and personal relationships.
Exercise regularly. Find a way to make exercise fun and preferably with a group of friends. Hike, run, weight lift, sports, etc.
Get enough sleep. It’s critical to mental and physical health.
Eat well. Your metabolism isn’t going to be operating like you remember it.
Be mindful. Enjoy where you are in life, and be present with your family and personal relationships.
- Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:46 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Intermediate term tax exempt bond fund
- Replies: 27
- Views: 2926
Re: Intermediate term tax exempt bond fund
- Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:54 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Intermediate term tax exempt bond fund
- Replies: 27
- Views: 2926
Re: Intermediate term tax exempt bond fund
I have the same fund in taxable, but also CDs and Series I Savings Bonds that I count towards my bond allocation. Each year I’m maxing out my 401k, Roth IRA and Series I savings bonds to slowly reduce muni bond exposure over time.
I believe William Bernstein recommend a taxable bond allocation of a third each in intermediate term tax exempt fund, CDs, and intermediate treasury bond fund.
I also remember a recommendation to keep municipal bonds to no more than 20% of total bond allocation. Probably the default risk is very low, but at the same time it’s definitely not zero. Muni funds have also underperformed in 2009 and recently, at the exact time that it would have been nice to rebalance bonds into equities.
I believe William Bernstein recommend a taxable bond allocation of a third each in intermediate term tax exempt fund, CDs, and intermediate treasury bond fund.
I also remember a recommendation to keep municipal bonds to no more than 20% of total bond allocation. Probably the default risk is very low, but at the same time it’s definitely not zero. Muni funds have also underperformed in 2009 and recently, at the exact time that it would have been nice to rebalance bonds into equities.
- Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:54 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: What are you doing for haircuts due to coronavirus shutdown?
- Replies: 258
- Views: 24920
Re: What are you doing for haircuts due to coronavirus shutdown?
Finally the guys with hair asking the bald guys for hair advice. Buzz it! 

- Wed Nov 20, 2019 5:59 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
- Replies: 51
- Views: 8635
Re: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
I agree that a 30-year LMP probably does not make sense for a 3% withdrawal rate for the first 30 years of a 60 year retirement, but I disagree that it generally is only useful if one is close to SS, etc. At a 2% withdrawal rate, 0.3% real return, a portfolio of TIPS would last 54 years (of course one can only build a TIPS ladder out to 30 years), and 50% of the portfolio in TIPS would last 26 years. Kevin That is a good example, and with higher real returns on fixed income I could see this approach becoming much more popular. I think the main issue is that 2% withdrawals are practically unobtainable for most people, or require working significantly longer than may be necessary with an alternative approach. Still it's nice to have a plan w...
- Tue Nov 19, 2019 6:40 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
- Replies: 51
- Views: 8635
Re: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
The answer depends on what you want to do with all that money. The difference between holding more money than you need all in stocks and holding it all in bonds is how wealthy you want to try to be when you die. Another factor is contingencies. People can underestimate what needs might come to pass. The advice is sometimes given to take no more risk than necessary, but it is also advisable to not be too narrow in diversity. Unless you have some good reason not to a starting point for thinking would be 50/50. Note bonds are not risk free as principal can be eroded by inflation and returns can be too low to meet the outcomes one really wants. Funding retirement withdrawals is most risky for all bonds unless the withdrawal rate is quite low. ...
- Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:32 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
- Replies: 51
- Views: 8635
Re: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
Using 0.5% for the 30 year TIPS rate and 40% of AA, the stocks would have to return at least 4.4% real annualized rate of return, compared to only 3.3% for portfolio depletion. 2.84 - (0.5%*40%) / 60% = 4.4% Interesting approach. I'm not sure it makes a lot of sense to use the financial functions for risky assets; i.e., assets that don't provide certain return and periodic payments. With risky assets, you're back to a probabilistic approach, and back to using something like Monte Carlo with historical returns as the inputs. Many (most?) folks here seem to confuse probability with certainty, mostly assuming that US stock historical returns provide a population that can be relied on to provide reliable statistics to determine expected values...
- Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:24 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
- Replies: 51
- Views: 8635
Re: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
[I didn't mean anything negative. You should be aware that historically, for any given withdrawal rate, more stock is in fact safer. 50/50 @ 3% should be failsafe, but at least historically 60/40 or 70/30 should be safer, e.g. if you should need to increase your spending. Appreciate the response. I didn't take it as a negative but I was curious if there was something you saw as not being diversified. I agree that the higher rates of return are needed for the portfolio to last longer. The equations from Kevin M and the ERN study definitely highlight that fact. I just can't shake the drive for capital preservation. I'm not as concerned with return on capital as much as I am return of capital. I think at this point I'm leaning towards 60/40, ...
- Sun Nov 17, 2019 4:09 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
- Replies: 51
- Views: 8635
Re: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
Aristotelian, I understand what you are saying. The main retirement risks are market, inflation, and longevity. I consider them in this specific order. I hope DW and I have significant longevity risk. This is addressed with low withdrawal rates (3%) and spending flexibility to reduce that rate if needed (2%). In addition, later in life I can consider an annuity. The Fed has reasonable controls in place for inflation. Even if those controls don't work, reasonably high inflation leads to higher future bond returns. In addition, there are assets that can address that risk to some degree, such as Series I bonds and TIPS (which aren't available in my 401k but will be when I roll the money to an IRA). Stocks in theory should also help with infla...
- Sun Nov 17, 2019 4:00 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
- Replies: 51
- Views: 8635
Re: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
If you assume you have an investment that is safe in real terms, such as a TIPS ladder, you can use the spreadsheet RATE function to determine the real rate required for a given number of years and a given withdrawal rate. For example, for 60 years at 3% WR: =RATE(60, 3%, -1, 0) This returns 2.18%, which I interpret as requiring a 2.18% real return at 3% WR to last 60 years. I don't think there's currently any safe investment that will provide a 2.2% real return--the 30-year TIPS yield is only about 0.6%, and that only gets you to 30 years, not 60. Consider using safe assets to get you to 30 years, and stocks for the rest. =RATE(30,3%, -1,0) This returns -0.67%, so even a negative real return of this rate gets you to 30 years. A TIPS ladde...
- Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:05 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
- Replies: 51
- Views: 8635
Re: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
There are no safe assets. Any assets that are safe from market risk are subject to inflation risk. In fact, for lengthy retirements, all the evidence has shown that equity heavy portfolio perform the best because you need returns to stay ahead of inflation. With a 3% withdrawal, it probably doesn't matter what you do, but I would want at least 30% in stocks and preferably more like 50%. Aristotelian, I understand what you are saying. The main retirement risks are market, inflation, and longevity. I consider them in this specific order. I hope DW and I have significant longevity risk. This is addressed with low withdrawal rates (3%) and spending flexibility to reduce that rate if needed (2%). In addition, later in life I can consider an ann...
- Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:50 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
- Replies: 51
- Views: 8635
Re: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
Looks like you are doing well. I don’t value bonds the way you do. Why do you accept Bernstein bond rules? What are your goals? The data all tells me that in the long run we will be better off in stocks. We are building reserves to weather storms. I like this thought framework. My goal is to have a portfolio that will maintain it's inflation adjusted value after 60 years of 3% withdrawal rates, with the lowest possible stock allocation. This is probably closer to a 60/40 portfolio. It would appear 50/50 wouldn't be as suitable for this time duration. It's not only Bernstein I trust, but also Pfau, Otar, Swedroe, etc. Given the black swan (fat tail) risk for stocks, my personal view is to have a portfolio with the least amount of stocks as ...
- Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:32 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
- Replies: 51
- Views: 8635
Re: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
at 2.5 mil you would have won the game in a variety of ways actually: for 40k expenses a year, you would only need 2 % withdrawal (and some leftover) You could get this in a savings account, with 100% bonds, and funny enough, you can even get this with 100% stocks and just taking dividends ...and everything in between...there is no risk for you anymore... In your position, I would actually go 100% stock (since you went over the 'need safety border' already), pay for core expenses out of dividends and enjoy good stock years with additional money provided by Mr Market above and beyond the principle plus inflation each year. For bad years, hunker down or keep 5 years worth of living expenses in cash. I would forgo bonds at this point. I think...
- Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:26 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
- Replies: 51
- Views: 8635
Re: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
If adjusting your AA immediately causes a taxable event, I would not do it in this manner. I would put all future savings into bonds and slowly get to your AA. It would be a taxable event, so I'm likely going to be getting there slowly with new contributions and dividends. I also just realized that if I count company preferred stock in the overall AA, I'm closer to 35% bonds, which may be where some of this angst is coming from. It's not something I've typically considered in this AA equation because it's illiquid. If I move from 37% to 40% bonds in my 'liquid' portfolio, then I'd be closer to age in bonds in my overall AA (including preferred stock). It would take about a year to get to that allocation, sooner if there's a stock option li...
- Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:12 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
- Replies: 51
- Views: 8635
Re: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
OP, With 3 to 4 years to go, why not go to 50/50 now and get it done? Why so complicated? The difference is so minimal that why over-complicate the process? I am 3 to 4 years from reaching my number. My final AA is 60/40. I am 60/40 now. KlangFool KlangFool, Do you plan to actually retire when you reach your number in 3 to 4 years, or continue to earn an income in some way? How many years do you assume you withdraw from your portfolio? 1) I will be FI. Working will be optional. 2) Forever is the assumption. With social security, my portfolio is 50 times my retirement expense. KlangFool It does not appear an over complication to consider the asset allocation in relation to the withdrawal rate and retirement duration. Your 2% withdrawals are...
- Thu Nov 14, 2019 6:42 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
- Replies: 51
- Views: 8635
Re: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
The only characterization I object mildly to, in your post, is that the bonds are “safe assets”. If interest rates rise by a quarter point in the future, those bond assets are expected to drop by approximately 10%. It does not even need to be an actual event, the mere “expectation” of a rise in interest rates by a quarter percentage is enough to decimate the bonds (in a literal sense, “decimate” meaning killing it reducing a tenth of the original strength/numbers/values). I therefore prefer a slightly higher stock allocation, 60:40 than 50:50. But 50:50 is fine too. Drop everything into Vanguard Balanced Index fund, or Life Strategy Moderate Growth fund will get around the angst you are having and also keeps it simple for your DW. One fund...
- Thu Nov 14, 2019 6:34 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
- Replies: 51
- Views: 8635
Re: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
Appreciate any insight you have, thanks! ... No debt. Currently a renter. One way to declare that you have won the game and to take some money off the table is to have a paid off house. There are lots of reasons that buying a house might not be right for you now but you could set up a conservative house fund to be able to buy a house for cash someday when owning a house is right for you. Unless you are likely to retire in an expensive area you might be able to buy a house someday for a couple of hundred thousand dollars which is just a small percentage of your nest egg but setting that aside would reduce your overall risk. Watty, I do agree that over the very long term, owning a house can make sense. It doesn't make sense where we're at cu...
- Thu Nov 14, 2019 6:18 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
- Replies: 51
- Views: 8635
Re: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
KlangFool,
Do you plan to actually retire when you reach your number in 3 to 4 years, or continue to earn an income in some way? How many years do you assume you withdraw from your portfolio?
- Thu Nov 14, 2019 6:15 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
- Replies: 51
- Views: 8635
Re: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
I agree with the 50-60% equity range as a lower bound given a <3% withdrawal rate. The real question is how accurately have you predicted your expenses. Given that the market is at an all-time high I can't see any justification to not make the change in allocation right away, if it is what you want to be at anyways. I would plan to withdraw 3%, not sub-3%, if that makes a difference. Core expenses calculated by how much I have to transfer locally plus what my wife is now making this year. I'm learning towards an "immediate" change to 60/40 stock/bond within the next three months, and sitting on the decision to move to 50/50 at a later date. One challenge I have is that the stock market has historically almost always be at an all-...
- Thu Nov 14, 2019 6:00 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
- Replies: 51
- Views: 8635
Re: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
I believe that age in bonds is a relatively conservative approach to investing as one approaches traditional retirement age. I would not use that approach if I were considering retiring very early. Access to guaranteed income in retirement also changes the calculation. Not knowing the implications of your expat life makes me hesitant to advise in any direction. 50% to 60% equities is a likely range. Peter, Would it be correct to assume that you feel age in bonds is not conservative for an early retiree? As to guaranteed income, would that be an annuity (probably need to wait until a more traditional retirement age), Series I Bonds (maxing those each year), or a pension (don't have one). Approximately 2/3 of my net worth is in Taxable. The ...
- Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:53 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
- Replies: 51
- Views: 8635
Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
Hi Bogleheads, I'm starting with the major question to begin with the end in mind. About 12 years ago I set up an Investment Policy Statement (IPS) with an AA of age in bonds. Currently at 37 and nearly $1.8 mil net worth, we are ahead of our goals. At our current savings rate we can hit $2.5 mil in 4 years (assuming about 2.5% real growth per year). If stock options mature, which I don't include in my net worth, we can probably hit that goal in less than 3 years. At $2.5 mil and 3% withdrawal rate will provide $75,000/yr. We estimate "core" future expenses closer to $40,000/yr. I feel relatively confident in a 50/50 portfolio meeting that withdrawal rate over 50 years. I don't plan to quit working entirely, but would be doing mor...
- Fri Oct 04, 2019 6:44 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Mega-backdoor Roth 401k + Backdoor Roth IRA?
- Replies: 12
- Views: 1324
Re: Mega-backdoor Roth 401k + Backdoor Roth IRA?
This is the first year we're beginning to take advantage of the MBR as well and are aiming to save the following moving forward: $19,000 - my 401k $19,000 - wife's 403b $6,360 - my 401k match $6,650 - wife's 403b match $6,000 - my backdoor Roth IRA $6,000 - wife's backdoor Roth IRA $30,640* - my remaining available after-tax 401k contributions $2,500 - 529 ------------- $96,150 in tax-advantaged savings * We're not going to be able to completely max this out and I'm ok with that. You've got to live a little. I'd also note that one of my concerns is not having much in our taxable brokerage account, other than our emergency fund ($40K in Vanguard Prime Money Market). I'd be interested in hearing from others regarding their thoughts on essent...
- Fri Oct 04, 2019 6:25 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Mega-backdoor Roth 401k + Backdoor Roth IRA?
- Replies: 12
- Views: 1324
Re: Mega-backdoor Roth 401k + Backdoor Roth IRA?
Thanks! DW does not work so I'm limited to the spousal backdoor Roth IRA.lakpr wrote: ↑Fri Oct 04, 2019 7:30 am It is Scenario 1
If your spouse works, your combined limit for tax advantaged accounts would be $68k + $19k = $87k.
If the working spouse is over 50, the combined limit for tax advantaged accounts would be $87k + $6k + $1k = $94k.
If both spouses work and both are over 50, even if one spouse does not have access to MBR, the combined limit would $94k + $6k + 1k = $101k.
If you are able to max all that, SUPERB!
- Fri Oct 04, 2019 6:49 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Mega-backdoor Roth 401k + Backdoor Roth IRA?
- Replies: 12
- Views: 1324
Mega-backdoor Roth 401k + Backdoor Roth IRA?
Hi Bogleheads, This is the first year I have access to the Mega-backdoor Roth 401k. Previously I have been maxing out Traditional 401k and doing a backdoor Roth IRA plus spousal backdoor Roth IRA. It's not clear if the mega-backdoor Roth 401k limit ($56k) includes the backdoor Roth IRA limit ($6k). I assume spousal IRA is a separate issue ($6k). So is it Scenario 1 or 2? Scenario 1: Mega-backdoor Roth IRA limit is separate to backdoor Roth IRA limit. For example, $19k to Traditional 401k, $5k employer match, plus $32k after-tax 401k converted to Roth 401k (total $56k into 401k), PLUS $6k backdoor Roth IRA and $6k spousal backdoor Roth IRA. Total would be $56k to 401k ($24k traditional + $32k after-tax 401k) plus $6k to backdoor Roth IRA, pl...
- Sat Apr 13, 2019 7:13 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Larry Swedroe: Investment Strategy In An Uncertain World
- Replies: 21
- Views: 3172
Re: Larry Swedroe: Investment Strategy In An Uncertain World
From the article:
What funds or alternatives would these sources of risk include? Is it discussed in one of Larry’s recent books?wrote: Portfolios can be constructed to add exposures to other unique sources of risk, such as the ones mentioned earlier (carry, momentum, variance risk premium, reinsurance and others).
- Sat Apr 13, 2019 10:45 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Which bonds in taxable?
- Replies: 19
- Views: 3185
Re: Which bonds in taxable?
I'm not a big fan of I Bonds. They expand tax-advantaged space in the worst way possible. By default, interest from I Bonds is tax deferred and free from state and local taxation. This is similar tax treatment to a non-deductible Traditional IRA filled with fixed income investments similar to TIPS and forced withdrawal within 30 years, plus exemption from state & local tax. I don't see this as a great deal. Interest from I Bonds can be free from federal taxation if used for qualified education expenses. If you could use them for this purpose, this would be like expanding your Roth IRA space every year and investing in something similar to TIPS. However, there is a phaseout. For MFJ for 2018, it starts at $119,300 of MAGI and ends at $1...
- Sat Apr 13, 2019 10:36 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Which bonds in taxable?
- Replies: 19
- Views: 3185
Re: Which bonds in taxable?
I did TLH munis last year. Me too, but I got busy, and forgot to buy back. Could have switched horses, but didn’t do that either. The mistake cost me 3% gain for the year and 2%+ taxfree yield for over a quarter of the year. Guess it could have gone the other way just as likely, especially since I’m back in. I still don’t understand ibonds and whether they’re better for me than munis or have restrictions, so I try to keep things simple. Oh, and the TLH was over a year, so the losses were long term, another minor glitch. Anyway, munis are simpler IMO, so if you’re on the fence, I’d go that route despite any potential risk differences. Differences are minor and likely less active. You can tax loss harvest intermediate term muni bonds directl...
- Sat Apr 13, 2019 10:30 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Which bonds in taxable?
- Replies: 19
- Views: 3185
Re: Which bonds in taxable?
I’d recommend investing in I Bonds which effectively give you an easy extra $10k (if single) or $20k (if married) tax deferred space per year. I hadn’t thought about this as creating additional tax deferred space before. Interesting! Do you expect to be in a higher tax bracket later in your career/life? Are you close to retirement? Yes. Also should have a pension that keeps me into at least a moderate tax bracket. Estimate being FI in 10 years and retire in 15-20+? I Bonds could make sense. I like them because I’m in a high tax bracket now but plan to be retired in less than 30 years, and therefore in a lower tax bracket when I will pay interest on the gains. This is much better than a CD or bond in taxable where I have to pay taxes each y...
- Fri Apr 12, 2019 7:44 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: What to see in Philly?
- Replies: 87
- Views: 7679
Re: What to see in Philly?
Definitley agree with the posters above if you’re a history or movie buff.
The off the beaten path activities we enjoyed the most was the Fireman’s Hall Museum. Small and free, and you can walk down the next block’s Elfreth's Alley, the Oldest continuously occupied street in the USA.
Next, also nearby, is the United States Mint where you can watch money being made. Great for engineers and finance buffs.
The off the beaten path activities we enjoyed the most was the Fireman’s Hall Museum. Small and free, and you can walk down the next block’s Elfreth's Alley, the Oldest continuously occupied street in the USA.
Next, also nearby, is the United States Mint where you can watch money being made. Great for engineers and finance buffs.
- Fri Apr 12, 2019 7:33 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Can I semi-retire now?
- Replies: 138
- Views: 15685
Re: Can I semi-retire now?
Yes. You have 40x expenses. You can retire fully now. Add in social security, pension, and possibly 2 sources of income, and you should have semi retired long ago. The wildcards are college if you're paying for that, future increased health expenses, and how much will you invest in the small business idea? But I think you're good to do whatever you want. I think the term is "financial independence." Congrats. Is it really 40x expenses? Is the $45k expenses actually $45k + $13k = $58k expenses? Will the $280k in 529s cover all educational expenses? Is the $1.8 mil savings including the house? $58k / $1.52 mil (money outside 529s) = 3.82% withdrawal rate until Social Security comes. If we assume SS is actually $1500/mo or $18k per ...