Search found 309 matches

by muffins14
Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year
Replies: 57
Views: 3040

Re: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year

If the manager is willing to deviate substantially enough from the underlying universe of stocks then it's often possible to gain significant factor exposure to ALL the major factors without them "cancelling" out. I'm not sure Vanguard "is willing to deviate substantially enough from the underlying...
by muffins14
Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year
Replies: 57
Views: 3040

Re: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year

Thanks all for the discussion so far. One follow-up question: 2b. For those holding VFMF, is it as a replacement for -- or complement to -- a raw beta fund, like a total market fund? I use it as a complement, because the factor loading are more than my target. I am about 50/50 between VFMF and S&P ...
by muffins14
Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year
Replies: 57
Views: 3040

Re: VFMF has had a bad year

Couldn't the explanation for large alpha just be that the value methodology used by VFMF is different from that in the factor model, so some of the recent underperformance of "value" as implemented by VFMF shows up as alpha rather than HmL?
by muffins14
Fri Sep 18, 2020 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year
Replies: 57
Views: 3040

Re: VFMF has had a bad year

I was recently reading some old posts and found some discussion about VFMF (Vanguard U.S. Multifactor ETF) as a possible core portfolio holding. As of 8/31/2020, VFMF has returned -8.11% YTD versus +9.39% by its benchmark (Russell 3000). One year performance is +2.12% for VFMF and +21.44% for the b...
by muffins14
Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2684
Views: 199685

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I would think yes, since they are unique and independent measurements, so you 365x your dataset size
by muffins14
Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 921
Views: 65823

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

I think most people consider SS to be separate from their portfolio, and the overall effect is to imply that you can have a smaller portfolio because your remaining expenses are reduced after accounting for your SS income.
by muffins14
Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2684
Views: 199685

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I just did a 5 factor analysis of VFMF. Only size and value get a significant loading, profitability and investment don't. Funds like SLYV and VIOV give stronger loading on size and value while they have lower expense ratios than VFMF. Can someone explain the appeal of VFMF? https://www.portfoliovi...
by muffins14
Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2684
Views: 199685

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I just did a 5 factor analysis of VFMF. Only size and value get a significant loading, profitability and investment don't. Funds like SLYV and VIOV give stronger loading on size and value while they have lower expense ratios than VFMF. Can someone explain the appeal of VFMF? https://www.portfoliovi...
by muffins14
Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 921
Views: 65823

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Shouldn't one consider a pension, annuity or social security as a long term bond equivalent as part of the first 20% in long term bonds? Unfortunately one can’t rebalance out of social security and into stocks when the market drops, nor can hope for a negative correlation between SS price and stock...
by muffins14
Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is it never a good time to buy LT Bonds (in recent history)?
Replies: 103
Views: 6685

Re: Why is it never a good time to buy LT Bonds (in recent history)?

For me, it's better than a 0% bond, and the covariance with my equities likely yields better outcomes than holding short-term bonds + my equities
by muffins14
Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is it never a good time to buy LT Bonds (in recent history)?
Replies: 103
Views: 6685

Re: Why is it never a good time to buy LT Bonds (in recent history)?

000 wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:33 pm And if it does, what does that mean for the economic reality we will be living in?
I hope I don't find out :)
by muffins14
Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is it never a good time to buy LT Bonds (in recent history)?
Replies: 103
Views: 6685

Re: Why is it never a good time to buy LT Bonds (in recent history)?

I'm not making any prediction. I'm setting a bound at zero because I haven't seen negative rates in the US. I'm also not seeing negative rates below -1% outside the US either. What I'm saying is that if we're at 70bps for 10 years today and it goes to zero then that's your max capital gain. If you ...
by muffins14
Wed Sep 09, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification
Replies: 92
Views: 6474

Re: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification

I've seen the assertion before that a large part of the reason Total International has a much different performance than Total US is because of sector-weight differences e.g. 26.70% technology weight for Total US vs 12.08 for Total International. I wondered, therefore, what would happen if we "rewe...
by muffins14
Tue Sep 08, 2020 9:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Second Job vs Learning a 'Skill'
Replies: 18
Views: 1757

Re: Second Job vs Learning a 'Skill'

Get better at CS
Learn how to apply it to business problems and build side-projects you can showcase
Get good internships
Practice interviewing
Profit
by muffins14
Mon Sep 07, 2020 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is it never a good time to buy LT Bonds (in recent history)?
Replies: 103
Views: 6685

Re: Why is it never a good time to buy LT Bonds (in recent history)?

So you tried to time the bond market in 2010 and were wrong, but now you will try to time it in 2020 and think you will be right this time?

If you have the time horizon, the long-term bonds have less risk than the short and intermediate term bonds do
by muffins14
Mon Sep 07, 2020 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Additional investment when the market is down
Replies: 51
Views: 2942

Re: Additional investment when the market is down

It seems irrational to allocate 1.5% per month and do 50% of that into short-term bonds. If you’re that bond-heavy and that short-term, why not just lump sum now to that 50/50 allocation? That lump some will still be very conservative. Do you really think the market will be at the same level 6 years...
by muffins14
Sat Sep 05, 2020 1:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2684
Views: 199685

Re: Borrowing Money: Big companies vs. Small companies?

To fellow SCV heads From AQR's Fact, Fiction and the Size Effect: " ... On the other hand, when two firms merge, their value, momentum, and quality characteristics are averaged because they are ratios. Hence, the cost of capital predicted by these characteristics following a merger would be the ave...
by muffins14
Fri Sep 04, 2020 7:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: inverse panic - aggressively buying dips
Replies: 11
Views: 1307

Re: inverse panic - aggressively buying dips

You are essentially rebalancing more (definitely studies showing this much rebalancing is not beneficial) and you are maintaining a higher stock allocation. Once the stock market improves, when are you going to rebalance out of stocks? 10%? 20%? 40%? And what if that happens in 5 years?10 years? Th...
by muffins14
Fri Sep 04, 2020 7:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: inverse panic - aggressively buying dips
Replies: 11
Views: 1307

Re: inverse panic - aggressively buying dips

I don't think you are implying you will sell all your bonds (100% stocks) during the next prolonged slump. You buy to keep your asset allocation in check. If you were 80/20 and stocks drop and you are now 75/25, sells bonds to buy stocks to get back to 80/20. Selling to 100% stocks i probably not t...
by muffins14
Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: inverse panic - aggressively buying dips
Replies: 11
Views: 1307

Re: inverse panic - aggressively buying dips

7eight9 wrote: Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:29 pm How do you know what we are currently experiencing is a dip and not the beginning of something similar to the Nikkei circa December 1989 for example? :happy
I don't, so I'd be aggressively buying all the way down, I suppose, until I depleted by bond allocation.
by muffins14
Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: inverse panic - aggressively buying dips
Replies: 11
Views: 1307

inverse panic - aggressively buying dips

Back in March, and again in the last two days I've noticed a behavioral trait that when the market drops 3-4% on a day, I'm overly-eager to buy. For example back in March, I liquidated some of my long-term bond holdings to invest at the lows, and in the last couple of days I a) invested $5k of my mo...
by muffins14
Thu Sep 03, 2020 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2684
Views: 199685

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Steve Reading wrote: Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:24 pm ...
Got it, thanks. I guess what was in my mind was something more like the interest rate at which it could obtain debt via corporate bonds. In that case I would have personally imagined a company with a larger revenue stream would be able to access cheaper debt.
by muffins14
Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2684
Views: 199685

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

[ Ex: Two firms, one twice as big as the other in every way (twice as much debt, twice as much book value, etc etc). The bigger company might be allowed to borrow twice as much, but it doesn't get to borrow any cheaper just because it's bigger. This surprises me. My intuition would be that Google c...
by muffins14
Wed Sep 02, 2020 7:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Maximizing Taxable Accounts
Replies: 5
Views: 722

Re: Maximizing Taxable Accounts

In addition to what the other posters mentioned about moving 401ks, note that if you want to, you can likely roll over the old 401ks from previous employers either into your current 401k or into an IRA. In an IRA you will have the nearly unlimited freedom you're looking for. For your taxable account...
by muffins14
Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear Cub Smells Bubble
Replies: 406
Views: 29364

Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

In a larger sense I think you can be still somewhat diversified here. Say your 100/0 is 57% US and 43% international, about market cap split. Then you're about 14% in those top 5 stocks, which is still a bit heavy but many posters on the board are OK with people having ~10% of their equity being in ...
by muffins14
Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I wasn't ready to Tax Loss Harvest - what is 'ready'?
Replies: 33
Views: 2378

Re: I wasn't ready to Tax Loss Harvest - what is 'ready'?

I hope it doesn't seem too involved so you can feel comfortable enough to give it a try. In the end, the worst thing would just be that you forget to sell some shares you bought within 30 days of what you're TLH'ing, or perhaps you accidentally re-buy the same fund within 30 days. You won't end up i...
by muffins14
Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I wasn't ready to Tax Loss Harvest - what is 'ready'?
Replies: 33
Views: 2378

Re: I wasn't ready to Tax Loss Harvest - what is 'ready'?

I do not believe you need to wait for any amount of time before making the initial sale to TLH it. For example if I purchase an ETF and tomorrow it drops by 30%, I believe I can TLH it immediately. A caveat is that you also need to sell all shares purchased in the 30 days leading up to your selling ...
by muffins14
Tue Sep 01, 2020 5:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 400k cash, fear of inflation
Replies: 46
Views: 4072

Re: 400k cash, fear of inflation

You are the first one to bring up hyperinflation in this thread. Yes, by saying I do not think it is a reasonable risk The OP didn't ask about hyperinflation :confused And non-zero inflation in the long run is all but guaranteed based on the history of fiat currencies and the current debt load. I w...
by muffins14
Tue Sep 01, 2020 5:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 400k cash, fear of inflation
Replies: 46
Views: 4072

Re: 400k cash, fear of inflation

000 wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 5:50 pm You are the first one to bring up hyperinflation in this thread.
Yes, by saying I do not think it is a reasonable risk
by muffins14
Tue Sep 01, 2020 5:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 400k cash, fear of inflation
Replies: 46
Views: 4072

Re: 400k cash, fear of inflation

I'm going to tread carefully due to forum rules, but I honestly believe the risk of inflation is real if certain things play out in early November. You just can't ignore politics if considering the likelihood of inflation imo. Recently I've heard some commentary along the lines of inflation being "...
by muffins14
Tue Sep 01, 2020 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 400k cash, fear of inflation
Replies: 46
Views: 4072

Re: 400k cash, fear of inflation

You could just stop earning an income, then your taxes would be even lower. You could be zero-taxed rather than single-taxed for example
by muffins14
Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Short Term Treasury Bond Index - Help me Understand
Replies: 12
Views: 971

Re: Fidelity Short Term Treasury Bond Index - Help me Understand

Are sure you received no payment? Fidelity shows it paid $0.0103 per share on 8/31, which should have been about 56 cents for you. . Where did you find the above information ? For me, I can open the fideity app and search for the fund, click something like “get quote” and you can scroll down to see...
by muffins14
Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Short Term Treasury Bond Index - Help me Understand
Replies: 12
Views: 971

Re: Fidelity Short Term Treasury Bond Index - Help me Understand

Are sure you received no payment? Fidelity shows it paid $0.0103 per share on 8/31, which should have been about 56 cents for you. Maybe it hasn’t settled for you yet. Keep in mind that bonds / bond funds/ bond ETFs are marketable securities, so the price can fluctuate, which is why you saw the smal...
by muffins14
Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Were Warned.
Replies: 171
Views: 13973

Re: Investors Were Warned.

I hope that one day I can quote myself in a post about confirmation bias
by muffins14
Sun Aug 30, 2020 6:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New to Boglehead philosophies - need advice on portfolio
Replies: 15
Views: 1285

Re: New to Boglehead philosophies - need advice on portfolio

If you have losses on the taxable funds, sell them.

Get out of the absurd sector funds ASAP and move to a 3-fund type of portfolio
by muffins14
Sun Aug 30, 2020 5:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: So, I was playing Pickleball and Amazon sent me an offer
Replies: 87
Views: 7249

Re: So, I was playing Pickleball and Amazon sent me an offer

May places like grocery stores use beacon-like tracking such that they know when you go by specific aisles or products. It wouldn’t surprise me if some service is able to guess what you frequent go to a likely pickleball location, and are thus are more likely to buy those items
by muffins14
Sun Aug 30, 2020 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Construction and Rebalancing
Replies: 5
Views: 390

Re: Portfolio Construction and Rebalancing

I think you’re overthinking this. If you think all 8 assets are important, state your rebalancing bands in your IPS and then rebalance between them to your stated level when needed. How would you even rebalance at the category level if your “TSM+SCV+Developed+EM” category was too low? Just pick one ...
by muffins14
Thu Aug 27, 2020 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard 500 fund price is $321.84 - could there be a "split"?
Replies: 56
Views: 3640

Re: Vanguard 500 fund price is $321.84 - could there be a "split"?

I had wondered this about the ETF version, VOO, which is floating around $320 now. Vanguard as a broker doesn't do ETF fractional shares, though I know Vanguard has been pushing more toward ETFs. A cash turd of $300+ is starting to get significant. So now your emergency fund is $300 larger for a fe...
by muffins14
Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2684
Views: 199685

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

For what it's worth, I find it interesting that VFMF, which has reasonable size (0.42 +/- 0.018) and value (0.48 +/- 0.017) loadings happens to hold some of the "big tech" stocks as well. Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet are in the top 6 holdings, though maybe moreso due to momentum than value, but in...
by muffins14
Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2684
Views: 199685

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Getting back on topic, I am rejoicing today. Time for my bi-weekly purchase and SCV is down again :wink:
by muffins14
Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Motley Fool Stock Advisor Returns Claimed Superior- Anyone Here Using it?
Replies: 22
Views: 2266

Re: Motley Fool Stock Advisor Returns Claimed Superior- Anyone Here Using it?

I subscribe to these newsletters because I like to have some of my money in the hottest-of-the-hot stocks. One of my stock was up over 7% today, which you will never get in an index fund. What are you talking about? Do you realize that these stocks may already be in a total market index? Example: I...
by muffins14
Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: [Tesla - good buy after stock split?]
Replies: 34
Views: 3323

Re: [Tesla - good buy after stock split?]

Would you prefer one box of cereal for $500, or two boxes of cereal for $500 each?
by muffins14
Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Stop me from market timing (or not)
Replies: 30
Views: 1795

Re: Stop me from market timing (or not)

These types of posts should be auto-locked. They are not actionable because they are just a search for confirmation bias that disrespects the time of other posters and clutters up the board. OP: how is this post any different from the other 10000 posts about “I know I shouldn’t time the market, but ...
by muffins14
Thu Aug 20, 2020 11:10 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Greater leverage than x3 and Jim Simons ?
Replies: 47
Views: 2567

Re: Greater leverage than x3 and Jim Simons ?

And it's completely unacceptable to use 3x leverage with 13.3% of your portfolio rather than use 4x leverage with 10% of your portfolio?
by muffins14
Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:43 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Greater leverage than x3 and Jim Simons ?
Replies: 47
Views: 2567

Re: Greater leverage than x3 and Jim Simons ?

It feels odd that you're so desperate to get your hands on a 4x + leverage ETF for 10% of your portfolio. Why not: a) invest in a 2x ETF with 20% of your portfolio? b) invest in NTSX (90% S&P + 60% bonds) with 94% of your portfolio? c) invest in PSLDX with 60-70% of your portfolio? d) use options? e...
by muffins14
Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the historical premium for small cap value?
Replies: 6
Views: 408

Re: What is the historical premium for small cap value?

There was a paper published recently with these results, updated with out-of-sample data from Fama and French, I believe. You might be able to find a discussion about it on the forum. the point estimates that you show are likely somewhat misleadingly large, because both will have uncertainty that pr...
by muffins14
Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If i have VTI should I also get VUG?
Replies: 25
Views: 8704

Re: If i have VTI should I also get VUG?

The bandwagon grows