Search found 193 matches

by muffins14
Thu May 28, 2020 11:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Vanguard Seems to Be Pushing Us Towards ETFs?
Replies: 44
Views: 3514

Re: Why Vanguard Seems to Be Pushing Us Towards ETFs?

the X available for trade are funds that you can use to purchase new securities. Have you tried to place an order yet?
by muffins14
Wed May 27, 2020 11:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: SCV worth higher ER?
Replies: 12
Views: 574

Re: SCV worth higher ER?

In the 401k at those expenses, I wouldn’t bother. How about in a Roth IRA?
by muffins14
Wed May 27, 2020 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: First Time Car Buyer Needs Help. HELP ME PLEASE! Thank you!
Replies: 79
Views: 3259

Re: First Time Car Buyer Needs Help. HELP ME PLEASE! Thank you!

My parents do not know that I am buying them a car. This will be a Father's Day surprise gift to the both of them. My parents live very frugally. I only know that they like this car because when we were driving on the freeway, they mentioned it. They did not expect me to buy them a car. This is my ...
by muffins14
Tue May 26, 2020 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How is the Amazon Prime Rewards Visa Signature Card
Replies: 41
Views: 2184

Re: How is the Amazon Prime Rewards Visa Signature Card

Works fine for us. We typically use the 5% back as credits for making other amazon purchases and it’s seamless. One very annoying change that happened to me was that they recently lowered my balance from 80k to 40k because “I was not using all of my balance”. Not sure that would happen as easily if ...
by muffins14
Tue May 26, 2020 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career advice for science PhD student
Replies: 35
Views: 2734

Re: Career advice for science PhD student

I finished my PhD in physics around 5 years ago, and felt lucky that my research experience happened to require a lot of programming, larger-scale data analysis, and communication with data. My very strong recommendation, if you have any interest in it, would be to learn to be proficient in at least...
by muffins14
Mon May 25, 2020 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts & Questions on the Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF
Replies: 16
Views: 935

Re: Thoughts & Questions on the Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF

EDV is also my only dedicated bond holding in my ~90/25 portfolio. I have a distant time horizon for the investment as I will not be drawing from retirement accounts for many years. I’d suggest reading the several good recent posts on long term treasuries, duration matching, and correlation with the...
by muffins14
Sat May 23, 2020 12:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking of selling some SP 500 to buy more Wells Fargo
Replies: 73
Views: 4767

Re: Thinking of selling some SP 500 to buy more Wells Fargo

It’s ridiculous to buy it for the reason that it has a high current yield.

Would also recommend not telling the people who are sharing advice that they “can just be quiet” when they disagree with you, since the advice to avoid more concentration in one random bank stock is probably very good advice.
by muffins14
Fri May 22, 2020 1:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I freaked out…now what?
Replies: 60
Views: 6083

Re: I freaked out…now what?

What is your justification for waiting until October?
by muffins14
Thu May 21, 2020 9:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call
Replies: 95
Views: 11438

Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Please do not do B). There are many threads of people who sat out long periods of 2010-2020 because surely the market was supposed to fall.

Also do not do c,d, or e. Lots of good advice here on a path forward
by muffins14
Thu May 21, 2020 9:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How safe is the Vang CA interm muni fund VCADX?
Replies: 9
Views: 823

Re: How safe is the Vang CA interm muni fund VCADX?

California had a multi-billion budget surplus before COVID-19, so I personally would worry about default, assuming the economy picks back up.

However I typically follow having no more than 50% of my munis in my state of residence.
by muffins14
Tue May 19, 2020 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 171
Views: 10498

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

Emerging markets make up 10% of the world index. You could eliminate them entirely for your "comfort" and still greatly diversify over holding just the S&P 500.
by muffins14
Tue May 19, 2020 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 171
Views: 10498

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

Investing only in S&P 500 seems like a risky gamble on ~46% of the market. Why not buy the haystack?
by muffins14
Tue May 19, 2020 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Did I choose wrong index and allocations?
Replies: 19
Views: 2050

Re: Did I choose wrong index and allocations?

It is also true that your total IRA contributions are $6000 plus $1000 “catch-up”, so, not $7000 per account but $7000 in total
by muffins14
Tue May 19, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Did I choose wrong index and allocations?
Replies: 19
Views: 2050

Re: Did I choose wrong index and allocations?

It is generally recommended to keep bonds in a traditional IRA rather than a Roth IRA, which is why he recommended selling VBIAX and replacing with an all-stock fund.

The Roth is tax-free, so you may want to keep only stocks in it for now, in order to maximize your expected after-tax portfolio value
by muffins14
Fri May 15, 2020 9:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Please tell me I'm not crazy [Best way to manage an EF?]
Replies: 171
Views: 10372

Re: Please tell me I'm not crazy

People are spending less discretionary income due to COVID. Why not say “yes, good idea to have 6 months emergency fund” Sell 1 months worth of stock to make her happy if necessary, and save up to 6 over the next few months
by muffins14
Wed May 13, 2020 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4922
Views: 426049

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

This strategy seems to benefit quite a bit from the addition of mid-cap and small-cap stocks. ProShares makes this possible with UMDD (3x Leveraged S&P 400 Mid-Cap ETF) and URTY (3x Leveraged Russell 2000 Small-Cap ETF). Can anyone provide backtests beyond June of 2000? Can anyone provide evidence ...
by muffins14
Wed May 13, 2020 11:13 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Factor regression analysis on Vanguard Global Value Factor ETF (vvl.to)
Replies: 10
Views: 746

Re: Factor regression analysis on Vanguard Global Value Factor ETF (vvl.to)

If you were to assume the premia were zero but the volatility was as observed over the last 10 years, could you run some analysis to make sure you would hit your financial goals? To me, that seems to be the more conservative approach, with the upside that if the premia do occur over your investing t...
by muffins14
Mon May 11, 2020 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ML/AI based withdrawal systems?
Replies: 11
Views: 705

Re: ML/AI based withdrawal systems?

As an engineer, I think you can appreciate that this likely falls into the category of fun/interesting but not useful.

I'd say "not useful" because it's one of those cases where the naive model is good enough and takes zero time to implement:
e.g., naive model = 3.75% rule, and watch your spending
by muffins14
Sun May 10, 2020 2:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4922
Views: 426049

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

If it were anti-correlated but didn’t move more than 0.1%, it’s not going to spike when UPRO dips. You want both high negative correlation and large magnitude of the shift, too, if possible But in order for it to spike, you need yields to plummet. If they're near zero bound, how does this happen go...
by muffins14
Sat May 09, 2020 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4922
Views: 426049

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

The idea is not to take gains off the table but because you need a high-variance, anti-correlated asset to offset UPRO in crises. I get the anti-correlation. I don't get the high-variance. If it were anti-correlated but didn’t move more than 0.1%, it’s not going to spike when UPRO dips. You want bo...
by muffins14
Sat May 09, 2020 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4922
Views: 426049

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Did you read the first post of the original thread? TMF isn't there for gains, it's there for insurance. If UPRO crashes, we expect it to be offset by an increase in TMF. Long-term, however, this portfolio is largely driven by gains in UPRO. Speaking for myself, I do expect yields to go negative an...
by muffins14
Sat May 09, 2020 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn't everybody replace SP500 with NTSX?
Replies: 70
Views: 6873

Re: Why doesn't everybody replace SP500 with NTSX?

Due to 6x leverage, you can think 10% of NTSX as a 40y duration bond. So 1% increase in interest rates would result in 40% loss of value of the 10% of the fund. Ouch. But of course by the same mechanism, a 1% decrease in rates would result in a 40% gain :) Given that I'll be holding this fund poten...
by muffins14
Fri May 08, 2020 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn't everybody replace SP500 with NTSX?
Replies: 70
Views: 6873

Re: Why doesn't everybody replace SP500 with NTSX?

Firstly, NTSX holds the equivalent of 60% treasuries, so you would have more term exposure than holding 40% of treasuries of the same duration. Next, NTSX has exposure to 90% of the S&P 500 while the 60/40 portfolio has 60%, so depending on how stocks behave, that will drive performance differences,...
by muffins14
Fri May 08, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn't everybody replace SP500 with NTSX?
Replies: 70
Views: 6873

Re: Why doesn't everybody replace SP500 with NTSX?

I'm wondering if the fund is safe as it is being managed and sold by a company called WisdomTree (close to a penny stock) trading at three bucks? Yes, it’s safe. Wisdomtree is a well respected fund company, may not be a hit with bogleheads. Not getting a good feeling on this one. Going to stay away...
by muffins14
Thu May 07, 2020 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]
Replies: 292
Views: 22413

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

If I was an accumulator who didn't want to hold bonds directly I'd consider: 50% NTSX 15% VIOV US small cap value 15% ISCF ex-US small cap multifactor 10% VWO emerging markets 10% VWOB emerging markets government bonds (I count these more as equities than bonds based on their behavior) My portfolio...
by muffins14
Wed May 06, 2020 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51698

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Most people do not own bonds exclusively.

In an 80/20 portfolio, the portfolio with LTT rather than TBM has higher sharp, lower STDEV, and higher CAGR

This holds over the last 3, 5, 10 years
by muffins14
Wed May 06, 2020 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasurys increases longer-date debt auctions, unveils 20-year bond
Replies: 11
Views: 914

Re: Treasurys increases longer-date debt auctions, unveils 20-year bond

What are Treasurys doing? The 10-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 0.712% climbed 5.6 points to 0.713%, while the 2-year note rate TMUBMUSD02Y, 0.172% was virtually flat at 0.192%. The 30-year bond yield TMUBMUSD30Y, 1.416% surged 6.4 basis points to 1.394%. Bond prices move inversely to yields...
by muffins14
Wed May 06, 2020 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasurys increases longer-date debt auctions, unveils 20-year bond
Replies: 11
Views: 914

Re: Treasurys increases longer-date debt auctions, unveils 20-year bond

What are Treasurys doing? The 10-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 0.712% climbed 5.6 points to 0.713%, while the 2-year note rate TMUBMUSD02Y, 0.172% was virtually flat at 0.192%. The 30-year bond yield TMUBMUSD30Y, 1.416% surged 6.4 basis points to 1.394%. Bond prices move inversely to yields...
by muffins14
Tue May 05, 2020 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Disney the most tempting value stock?
Replies: 223
Views: 13061

Re: Is Disney the most tempting value stock?

I imagine hedge funds who learned how to price subscription businesses like Netflix and Spotify are capable of predictions future Disney+ cashflows as well. Not sure that you can predict better than they are, unless it’s simply a bet based on when the rear of the parks, travel, and sports businesses...
by muffins14
Sun May 03, 2020 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead
Replies: 96
Views: 8996

Re: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead

“ The idea that the value premium derived from an opposite macroeconomic background to ours today and also before anyone knew about or sought factors will define what the market will do in the future given our low growth, low inflation, low interest rate environment is quite a stretch IMO. The macro...
by muffins14
Sun May 03, 2020 11:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 32 and New to investing Seeking Financial Independence
Replies: 5
Views: 788

Re: 32 and New to investing Seeking Financial Independence

How much are your current expenses? I think getting a better picture of expected expenses over the next 10 years will really help. With an $18k portfolio and 2 presumably young children to raise (and educate?) you may be further than 10-15 years from financial independence For 1) I’d consider increa...
by muffins14
Sat May 02, 2020 7:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How long is this profit sustainable as a New Trader?
Replies: 58
Views: 3391

Re: How long is this profit sustainable as a New Trader?

If your goal is to underperform SPY by 1/3 each month, you could try a 66/33 portfolio of SPY/bonds and see how it goes, with less work than whatever you’re doing
by muffins14
Sat May 02, 2020 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing
Replies: 290
Views: 12583

Re: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing

value companies are NOT riskier Assume there are two companies that are very similar, except for their risk. In order to compensate for increased risk, expected return will increase. Increased expected return will likely manifest as lower price multiples for the company of higher risk. Of the two c...
by muffins14
Sat May 02, 2020 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead
Replies: 96
Views: 8996

Re: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead

Just more data mining artifacts. I’d interpret the opposite. What uncorrelated is showing is that there is no significant relationship between the value premium and those other variables, as a counter argument to people who are claiming that value is linked to inflation rates. If anything, the time...
by muffins14
Sat May 02, 2020 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid
Replies: 56
Views: 7961

Re: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid

Larry has long said to use treasuries and limit credit risk. This feels like disingenuous criticism
by muffins14
Sat May 02, 2020 2:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing
Replies: 290
Views: 12583

Re: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing

I think people should invest in what they believe in. If you don’t believe in factors, then don’t do it. But I can’t help but notice the double standard between views regarding the various stock factors and the equity premium itself, which is actually another factor. Factor skeptics curiously have ...
by muffins14
Sat May 02, 2020 2:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats wrong with my portfolio? 60% in IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF) and 40% in QQQ(Nasdaq ETF)
Replies: 26
Views: 2030

Re: Whats wrong with my portfolio? 60% in IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF) and 40% in QQQ(Nasdaq ETF)

Are you trolling? If not, search for hedgefundie excellent adventure What does a standard 60/40 AA have to do with the Excellent Adventure? He is after similar mechanisms as people in the EA thread who are considering TQQQ/TMF, though with less duration exposure and leverage, so the discussions on ...
by muffins14
Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads Wiki: Small Caps
Replies: 29
Views: 1530

Re: Bogleheads Wiki: Small Caps

What are your thoughts of tilting to VSS under one's international allocation? For a while, it seemed it was the only good, affordable option. I'm curious to see a factor regression on VSS as well. I've never done it on my own and I wonder if there is only a size loading, which people here seem to ...
by muffins14
Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads Wiki: Small Caps
Replies: 29
Views: 1530

Re: Bogleheads Wiki: Small Caps

What are your thoughts of tilting to VSS under one's international allocation? For a while, it seemed it was the only good, affordable option. I'm curious to see a factor regression on VSS as well. I've never done it on my own and I wonder if there is only a size loading, which people here seem to ...
by muffins14
Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected return of stocks equals EE savings bonds
Replies: 23
Views: 1271

Re: Expected return of stocks equals EE savings bonds

It seems that a typical boglehead balanced portfolio is still simple and good enough, no? Today the market is up 3%, so hopefully it won't be all the gains for the remainder of the year ;)
by muffins14
Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing
Replies: 290
Views: 12583

Re: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing

Elysium wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:05 am
if you had a sector neutral (matches total market) fund that loaded on the size or value factor, how would you expect it to perform?

Would you not expect lower correlation to the total market in a way that could improve your overall portfolio performance when including it in some proportion?
by muffins14
Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing
Replies: 290
Views: 12583

Re: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing

For people who do not believe small and value offer unique risks, what is the explanation for the difference in drawdowns of a large vs small cap portfolio? Is the interpretation that pricing is irrational or that SCV has simply been getting unlucky draws from its distributions of possibilities?
by muffins14
Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ER cut for TSM ETF VTI - false info in banner, now removed!
Replies: 13
Views: 936

Re: ER cut for TSM ETF VTI - false info in banner, now removed!

This may have been naive, but I had thought that expense ratios were backward-looking in that they represented the expenses last year, not the intended expenses for the upcoming year (though they may be similar).

Is that not the case?
by muffins14
Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing
Replies: 290
Views: 12583

Re: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing

My A-Ha moment with factors was as soon as I learned about them on the Bogleheads forum. Up until that time I had only read two books on investing way back in about 1980. A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton G. Malkiel and The Only Investment Guide You Will Ever Need by Andrew Tobias. From thos...
by muffins14
Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51698

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

To be fair to vineviz, you seem to be somewhat over complicating duration matching. For me, duration matching means buying one fund now: EDV. In about 20-25 years, I’ll add a shorter-term fund, so I will have two bond funds. If I can rebalance my equity/bond split on some cadence, it’s not much inc...
by muffins14
Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51698

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Simplicity has its virtues, but a duration-matching approach from all I've seen is anything but simple. If only someone with decades of training and demonstrated skill in finance and investment management would tackle this problem, with a goal of coming up with an easy-to-use and easily communicate...
by muffins14
Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds performance - Q1 2020
Replies: 151
Views: 6265

Re: Vanguard factor funds performance - Q1 2020

As I noted in a recent thread, for each of the factors there is an inverse. For "quality", there is "not quality" and so forth. Here, being out of the factors the funds target was better than being in them. One can avoid such periods by investing in factors and their inverses. The easiest way to do...
by muffins14
Sun Apr 19, 2020 2:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51698

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Vineviz, I’m curious of your thoughts on the 3x-leveraged TMF as well. For example would you prefer 20% EDV to 9% TMF? 9% TMF could allow 11% to go back to equities. Or 9% TMF and 11% could move to short-term? Or if one really wanted to keep 20% in bonds, my horizon is 43 years away, so even EDV is ...
by muffins14
Sat Apr 18, 2020 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying to build Black Swan by Larry Swedroe
Replies: 17
Views: 1976

Re: Trying to build Black Swan by Larry Swedroe

For the sake of simplicity I certainly wouldn’t bother with 5% small cap and 5% small cap value. Why not 10% small cap value?