Search found 59 matches

by Chuffly
Wed Dec 26, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 60
Views: 9733

Re: Preparing for the bounce

If history is any guide, you have plenty of time to prepare for a bounce. :| Here's a very timely blog post from Ben Carlson on A Wealth of Common Sense. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/12/buying-when-stocks-are-down-big/. From the article referring to SP500 performance: "You can see the...
by Chuffly
Wed Dec 26, 2018 1:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Execution
Replies: 17
Views: 1840

Re: Dual Momentum Execution

tfb wrote: Wed Dec 26, 2018 12:57 am I thought dual momentum says you only look at the month end and you only switch when the recent 12-month performance is below cash. It kicks in later than 200-day moving average. After the end of December is the time to switch to cash if I understand it correctly.
Correct.
by Chuffly
Tue Dec 25, 2018 1:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for "Little Old Lady" revised
Replies: 21
Views: 2846

Re: Advice for "Little Old Lady" revised

If you'd like to see your portfolio, I plugged it into Portfolio Visualizer for you . One note - I swapped out VTIBX for BWX since the latter had more data to backtest. All in all, I think it's a pretty reasonable portfolio, especially for someone who claims to be a novice at this stuff. Well done. ...
by Chuffly
Mon Dec 24, 2018 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we officially in bear market ?
Replies: 79
Views: 10537

Re: Are we officially in bear market ?

Some cable channels declared S&P 500 officially entered bear market today . Is this correct ? It doesn't seem like there is an official, precise definition of what a bear market actually is. Which would make sense, as I don't know who would have the authority to render such a definition "o...
by Chuffly
Mon Dec 24, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worst prediction ever?
Replies: 15
Views: 2415

Re: Worst prediction ever?

RadAudit wrote: Mon Dec 24, 2018 8:27 pm Who was the guy who said that stocks had reached a permanently high plateau just before the crash in 1929?
Economist Irving Fisher:

http://time.com/3207128/stock-market-high-1929/
by Chuffly
Mon Dec 24, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 21237
Views: 2881919

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Including the Nov., 2018, data, it is 3.92. November's UER was 3.7. Historically, this has been a strong indicator that we are not currently in a recession. Can you please provide the link to where you pull the 12MMA unemployment rate from? Many thanks. I calculate with Excel using the data from th...
by Chuffly
Mon Dec 24, 2018 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)
Replies: 514
Views: 51194

Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Anything’s possible. Usually stocks need a reason to collapse 50%; something beyond overvaluation alone. In 2000 we had a tech bubble - ill-considered capital deployment in money losing companies - which led to a credit contraction and stock collapse. The fed responded with a ton of liquidity which...
by Chuffly
Mon Dec 24, 2018 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 21237
Views: 2881919

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-rev-up-the-risk-in-subprime-auto-deals-1543680043 I can't read it because it's behind a paywall, but if it's like the other articles that are talking about "car loans causing the next big one", I suspect it's an example of recency bias. No, it warns:...
by Chuffly
Mon Dec 24, 2018 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 21237
Views: 2881919

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

... Again, this is beginning to feel similar to September 2018 to me. All that is missing is big news about layoffs, bankruptcies, and unexpected financial land mines going off. That stuff may be coming... Stock prices are falling, that's similar, but the overall economy is doing pretty good, and t...
by Chuffly
Mon Dec 24, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 21237
Views: 2881919

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I'm showing 2351.64, down from a 52 week high of 2,940.91, per Yahoo! finance:

It's here folks:

Image
by Chuffly
Mon Dec 24, 2018 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who has made money by piggybacking on famous Hedge Fund managers?
Replies: 9
Views: 1155

Re: Who has made money by piggybacking on famous Hedge Fund managers?

Hello Bogleheads, Happy Holidays! This piece showed up on my LinkedIn feed. It says, among other things: Hedge fund managers like David Einhorn, Dan Loeb, or Carl Icahn became billionaires through reaping large profits for their investors, which is why piggybacking their stock picks may provide us ...
by Chuffly
Mon Dec 24, 2018 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 21237
Views: 2881919

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

quantAndHold wrote: Mon Dec 24, 2018 10:59 am Lump of coal for everyone this year, apparently.
Could be worse - coal is in an uptrend right now! :greedy
by Chuffly
Mon Dec 24, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Replies: 155
Views: 17022

Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade

Unbelievable. I’ve posted before that I have no doubt that the US isn’t perfect, free from corruption, etc. but apparently I have to state that every single time I ask about this. Perhaps I’ll add it to my signature if I find it worthwhile to stick around here. I’ve posted before where, for example...
by Chuffly
Mon Dec 24, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 21237
Views: 2881919

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Is there a way to rebalance and not throw off taxable gains on my brokerage account? Chances are you're rebalancing by selling bonds and buying stocks. Unless you've had your bonds a long time, you're likely not sitting on massive gains. There will be some for sure, but not like if you were selling...
by Chuffly
Mon Dec 24, 2018 1:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 21237
Views: 2881919

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Everything is under control now that the PPT has been called in: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-treasury/treasury-secretary-convenes-calls-with-top-us-bankers-idUSKCN1OM0LJ I expected better from Reuters. U.S. stocks have fallen sharply in recent weeks on concerns over slowing economic grow...
by Chuffly
Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dumb question about bedding and comforters
Replies: 20
Views: 1964

Re: Dumb question about bedding and comforters

Whenever we use a duvet cover, the duvet insert/comforter ends up bunched in one corner. How do you avoid that? The one I just purchased has ties on the down comforter and loops in the (inner) corners of the duvet cover. I just started my first venture into the duvet cover world, so I can't speak t...
by Chuffly
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 4107

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

I really wish there was a fund that runs this. I like the 50% buy and hold, 50% trend. VMOT and PWS and their like might be my best option, but those fees certainly don't look too appetizing. Meb has his TRTY fund out now. If you really want to use a fund, you can check that one out. That said, you...
by Chuffly
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 4107

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

Here are some scenarios where trend following is difficult: 1) You are on vacation in a foreign country and the end of month sell/buy signal hits. To be consistent you must act even from a different time zone. 2) You have 3 accounts (Roth IRA, traditional IRA, taxable) with multiple funds in each, ...
by Chuffly
Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 4107

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

Here are some scenarios where trend following is difficult: 1) You are on vacation in a foreign country and the end of month sell/buy signal hits. To be consistent you must act even from a different time zone. 2) You have 3 accounts (Roth IRA, traditional IRA, taxable) with multiple funds in each, ...
by Chuffly
Sun Nov 11, 2018 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 4107

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

I would strongly recommend trying to really visualize what you would be thinking at the end of 1999 if you had just seen the results in the link I posted. At the end of 1999, what reason would you have for sticking to your model that had been underperforming the past 12 years? Before you embark on ...
by Chuffly
Sun Nov 11, 2018 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 4107

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

I don't understand something here...several people have mentioned "selling at a loss" with this strategy. If I have a buy and hold port at 60/40, and stocks tank -35% while bonds go down -15%, am I not "selling at a loss" when I rebalance (i.e., I'm selling bonds at a loss to bu...
by Chuffly
Sun Nov 11, 2018 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 4107

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

I don't know, but one hopeful behavioral explanation would be that the strategy often mandates selling at a loss, which is painful and is normally advised against. Similarly, it advocates remaining invested in long bull markets that many think are "overdue for a correction" until they act...
by Chuffly
Mon Aug 27, 2018 12:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 122096

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Thank you for all this. I only briefly scanned so far but will come back to them soon. PS. Doesn’t it strike you as a bit odd that people are investing $100’s of thousands (or even millions) in International index funds and there isn’t a simple place to find basic info like PEs. How do people have ...
by Chuffly
Sun Jul 08, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity vs Schwab
Replies: 18
Views: 4589

Re: Fidelity vs Schwab

Customer service: I think Schwab has the edge but fidelity isn't far off. Schwab has some nice things like 24/7 chat but fidelity closes its chat each night. Mutual funds: Fidelity ETFs: Either Bonds: Fidelity Solo 401k: Fidelity Checking account: Both are good Credit card: Fidelity retirement/educ...
by Chuffly
Sun Apr 15, 2018 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Meb Faber/Cambria/Trinity Funds
Replies: 68
Views: 14896

Re: Meb Faber/Cambria/Trinity Funds

Larry Swedroe advocates small and value tilts and has now come onboard with trend following as well, which is mostly what Meb advocates. That's the thing. I've been listening to Mab Faber's podcast for months and still have no idea what his actual strategy is. He seems to be all over the place with...
by Chuffly
Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans
Replies: 130
Views: 18118

Re: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans

HomerJ wrote: Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:34 pm Too many variables, in my mind. I'm not sure that you know all the risks of the various factors, or can quantify them perfectly. I'm not saying you're wrong. You may be right. But I don't know if you missed a variable or two.
One could say the same about investing in U.S. equities.
by Chuffly
Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone subscribe to Socrates ?
Replies: 18
Views: 4519

Re: Anyone subscribe to Socrates ?

It is clear that a battle is brewing, as leadership admitted that they are still undecided on how to even deal with this situation. It looks like the peak in the ECM is targeting October 1, which is the precise day we may see the U.S. government shutdown. In 2015 there was no government shutdown, n...
by Chuffly
Mon Feb 19, 2018 1:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Looking for some help and fast (buying vs renting, net worth)
Replies: 52
Views: 4592

Re: Looking for some help and fast (buying vs renting, net worth)

Why not figure it out for yourself? Here's a good source to get you started: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html You might be overthinking this. The way to think through this problem is to determine whether it's better to buy or rent today . If the latter, you sh...
by Chuffly
Mon Feb 19, 2018 1:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Late 20's female looking for some advice towards financial independence
Replies: 31
Views: 4839

Re: Late 20's female looking for some advice towards financial independence

It's going to be hard to answer this one because it's really going to boil down to your own personal preferences. That said, I did something not unlike this for 6 months while my employment situation was somewhat questionable. I work in the oil & gas industry and 2015-16 was a rough patch in whi...
by Chuffly
Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How does it make sense to buy a condo/house in Texas?
Replies: 97
Views: 13764

Re: Should I buy a house, duplex/multiplex, or condo in Houston, TX? Any advice?

I'm with the rest of the "you should rent" chorus. After living in Houston the past couple years, I'd be a little skeptical of the safety of any condo you could scoop up for $60k. Given that you have expressed reservations about flood risk, it wouldn't hurt to consult this tool: http://www...
by Chuffly
Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I claim chapter 7 bankruptcy? debt 110k
Replies: 64
Views: 8612

Re: Should I claim chapter 7 bankruptcy? debt 110k

To all the folks automatically labeling the OP a troll, or telling him to just get a job, you may want to read his most recent posts. One of them notes that he received a $130k "settlement check" . Not a ton of details to go on, but given that he is in his thirties, lives at home with his ...
by Chuffly
Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who are heirs? No will.
Replies: 63
Views: 9986

Re: Who are heirs? No will.

One other thing for consideration. Intestate succession for real property is controlled by the statutes of the state in which the real property is located. Based on what you said, it looks like the only real property he owned was his house ( "It is a modest estate consisting mostly of a house.&...
by Chuffly
Sun Dec 03, 2017 9:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trust or Will
Replies: 14
Views: 2569

Re: Trust or Will

I am not sure I understand why the question is being framed as an "either/or". I think you should always have a will if you have a non-negligible amount of assets. Don't forget, if you have any real property which you fail to properly deed into the trust (this can include property you don'...
by Chuffly
Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative to Mint for portfolio analysis
Replies: 16
Views: 2774

Re: Alternative to Mint for portfolio analysis

For pure investment accounts, I like SigFig quite a bit. The user interface is pretty clean and easy to use. I use both Mint and SigFig - they both serve somewhat different functions. Mint helps track expenses and overall net worth, and SigFig helps me monitor my overall investment portfolio. I've n...
by Chuffly
Mon Nov 06, 2017 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 566
Views: 79611

Re: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]

Just got an email that Jan 19 is the new commission free deadline for everybody. We have extended the commission-free transition period for legacy ETFs until January 19, 2018. All new funds are available to trade commission-free today. After January 19, 2018, the 84 legacy funds will still be avail...
by Chuffly
Sat Nov 04, 2017 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses
Replies: 2739
Views: 437549

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses

Does anyone else here use an account aggregator like Mint / SigFig? I just completed a TD to Merill Edge transfer this past week (Merrill showed the assets hitting my account on Monday or Tuesday). For some reason, Mint and SigFig still show the assets in TD as well so it's double counting those as...
by Chuffly
Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody used Robinhood for investing?
Replies: 4
Views: 1744

Re: Anybody used Robinhood for investing?

Hi. I was wondering if any of you here are/were using Robinhood for 'fun' investing? I opened an account to buy and hold a BRK.B share in ... does that count? BTW, I just received an e-mail from them saying that they were getting ready to launch their website app in early 2018. Not sure if that is ...
by Chuffly
Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses
Replies: 2739
Views: 437549

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses

Does anyone else here use an account aggregator like Mint / SigFig? I just completed a TD to Merill Edge transfer this past week (Merrill showed the assets hitting my account on Monday or Tuesday). For some reason, Mint and SigFig still show the assets in TD as well so it's double counting those ass...
by Chuffly
Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses
Replies: 2739
Views: 437549

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses

What happens to fractional ETFs during an interbrokerage transfer (specifically a transfer out of Vanguard) ? Are we required to sell before, or are the fractional amounts liquidated automatically ? And if so is there an actual market for fractional ETFs (done through VBS) ? Also, what about shares...
by Chuffly
Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Yahoo Finance no longer works - Alternatives to download securities quotes]
Replies: 289
Views: 65400

Re: Excel Macro using Yahoo Finance- not working

Hello there!! I use this website to download data automatically too. It is working. You have to register to get a passcode for make the query. When I get time I will post an excel macro to get data from this site. https://www.alphavantage.co/ I hope this helps. (gekko) I hadn't seen this one before...
by Chuffly
Sat Oct 28, 2017 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think about FTSE Emerging markets?
Replies: 13
Views: 2491

Re: What do you think about FTSE Emerging markets?

Hi guys, I gave a quick look at the 12-year history of the Vanguard FTSE emerging market (VWO) and found that it has hardly moved at all? Hovering around $40 for nearly a decade. I'm not sure what I should make of this. Is this still too short a time frame to draw any conclusions? Cheers, Jack Over...
by Chuffly
Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 566
Views: 79611

Re: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]

Nisiprius has described some of these bonus situations as akin to stealing the cheese from the mousetrap. Sometimes it works, and sometimes it doesn't work out so well. Sorry, but this is silly. No one is trapped anywhere. If you don't like the TDA deal, move somewhere where you to DO like the deal...
by Chuffly
Sun Oct 15, 2017 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 566
Views: 79611

Re: Fellow TDA bogleheads

The iShares/Fidelity relationship seems to be pretty tight and maybe even exclusive. For example, iShares is not a part of Schwab's pay-to-play plan. I'm not sure that I'd expect to see them on TDA. My bet is that you'll see a large number of State Street ones. While I do agree that iShares is pret...
by Chuffly
Sun Oct 15, 2017 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 566
Views: 79611

Re: Fellow TDA bogleheads

I was just looking at tda because of this thread, what would people use if they get rid of vanguard. Namely what would they use to replace VTI? I couldn't really find anything unless you use a bunch of ishares etfs maybe to replicate an all market etf. edit: I guess, IWV ishares russell 3000 could ...
by Chuffly
Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 566
Views: 79611

Re: Fellow TDA bogleheads

Hopefully they will keep their iShares ETFs. If they're dropping Vanguard ETFs, I hope they will expand their iShares ETFs. They currently only have a handful of the iShares core ETFs on the commission-free list. By comparison, Fidelity offers 70 commission-free iShares covering all of the major as...
by Chuffly
Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: reliable investment calculator with dividends reinvested
Replies: 13
Views: 2163

Re: reliable investment calculator with dividends reinvested

I also use Portfolio Visualizer, but a different section of the site. It may not seem like it at first glance, but the Asset Correlation section actually produces Annualized return, and from what I can tell, it looks to be total return (so dividends reinvested). Here's an example.
by Chuffly
Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 46216

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

...My apologies, that " % matplotlib inline " line only works if you use the jupyter notebooks. Probably should have removed that for folks that don't use jupyter notebooks and instead run straight python scripts. Try the script below instead (alternatively, just delete or comment out the...
by Chuffly
Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 46216

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

1966-1982 was a really bad period of runaway inflation and zero real returns in the US stock market (and horrible real returns in bonds). Fortunately, this was a unique period. Not really comparable to what is going on with ex-US where it performs poorly during much more frequent long-term periods ...
by Chuffly
Sun Jul 30, 2017 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 46216

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

... *Note: In the interest of transparency and in case anyone is curious about the source for the S&P 24 year total return numbers, below is the Python code to pull and play with data used to derive:[/i] import quandl from matplotlib import style %matplotlib inline style.use('fivethirtyeight') ...