Search found 76 matches

by JFP_SF
Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Automated Tax Loss Harvesting by Robo Advisor - Anyone with real results?
Replies: 40
Views: 4066

Re: Automated Tax Loss Harvesting by Robo Advisor - Anyone with real results?

Hi, How do you know that your WF account did ? I cant tell from my Schwab Robo and one one in Schwab can explain how much (IF ANY) was harvested last year or this year. Looks like I am impacted by Schwab's marketing gimic of Auto TLH and paying high Robo ER with REITS/Commodities in Taxable. Sad. U...
by JFP_SF
Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Automated Tax Loss Harvesting by Robo Advisor - Anyone with real results?
Replies: 40
Views: 4066

Re: Automated Tax Loss Harvesting by Robo Advisor - Anyone with real results?

The $3K is net (capital losses - capital gains), so it can be worth more to you, and you can also carry it forward [in unlimited amounts and use it to offset realized capital gains in any amount, and use that to offset ordinary income each year] at $3K a year. [...] When I read that statement, it l...
by JFP_SF
Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Automated Tax Loss Harvesting by Robo Advisor - Anyone with real results?
Replies: 40
Views: 4066

Re: Automated Tax Loss Harvesting by Robo Advisor - Anyone with real results?

Hi Narullah, Can you advise what did your CPA said about 'reality' of TLH for Robo? My Wealthfront account and TLH has generated losses for me over the past couple of years. I was more excited about it until filing taxes and my CPA explained the reality to me. I bought into the marketing of by the ...
by JFP_SF
Sat Jan 20, 2018 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Automated Tax Loss Harvesting by Robo Advisor - Anyone with real results?
Replies: 40
Views: 4066

Re: Automated Tax Loss Harvesting by Robo Advisor - Anyone with real results?

Are you happy with SIP and it's under performance vs 3 Fund ? How do anyone know that SIP actually saved you on Taxes via it's Auto TLH ? Underperformance over what period? I think it's a bit early to tell whether it will underperform long-term, but we will see. Its use of non-cap weighted funds is...
by JFP_SF
Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Automated Tax Loss Harvesting by Robo Advisor - Anyone with real results?
Replies: 40
Views: 4066

Re: Automated Tax Loss Harvesting by Robo Advisor - Anyone with real results?

I use SIP, but I had no losses to harvest. Nor did I on the funds I invest myself. It's a tough problem :D
by JFP_SF
Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just downsized at age 60...input appreciated
Replies: 56
Views: 5697

Re: Just downsized at age 60...input appreciated

One solution that might give you the best of both worlds would be to take a portion of your portfolio and have it managed through a trusted advisor. That way you can leverage his knowledge and yet do so with only a portion of your money under management ($$). The challenge is finding someone you tr...
by JFP_SF
Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive investing is a Ponzi scheme
Replies: 77
Views: 7298

Re: Passive investing is a Ponzi scheme

It does seem very plausible that a lot of the money flowing into index funds is not truly following a passive strategy, but rather is chasing returns in the current bull market. When there starts to be a correction, I would expect there to be a pullback on indexed money, which could drive the whole...
by JFP_SF
Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive investing is a Ponzi scheme
Replies: 77
Views: 7298

Re: Active investing is a Ponzi scheme

In the interview she did mention specific examples of where she felt the risk in indexing were particularly acute with the FANG stocks vs. stocks like Microsoft where you get the same growth at more reasonable valuations. Why doesn't she invest in FANG stocks, stay away from Microsoft, and enjoy he...
by JFP_SF
Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Index Funds Evil?
Replies: 30
Views: 4657

Re: Are Index Funds Evil?

The underlying academic theory is far more interesting than the typical index-fund bashing in financial press and really isn't about index funds at all - whether the shared ownership was via passive or active stock picking is wholly irrelevant to the arguments. It tees up an interesting philosophic...
by JFP_SF
Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Index Funds Evil?
Replies: 30
Views: 4657

Re: Are Index Funds Evil?

Taylor Larimore wrote:
JFP_SF wrote:New article in the Atlantic argues that researchers are now claiming that Index Funds are bad for the economy:
JFP_SF:

The article is a reminder that writers need something to write about.

Best wishes.
Taylor
He's writing about research by economists and he's not exactly sensationalizing it.
by JFP_SF
Tue Aug 08, 2017 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Index Funds Evil?
Replies: 30
Views: 4657

Are Index Funds Evil?

New article in the Atlantic argues that researchers are now claiming that Index Funds are bad for the economy:

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... ource=feed

Interestingly enough, the author is a fan of index funds
by JFP_SF
Sun Jul 30, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT Carl Richards "You’re No Coward if You’re Keeping Some Money Out of Stocks"
Replies: 42
Views: 6150

Re: NYT Carl Richards "You’re No Coward if You’re Keeping Some Money Out of Stocks"

I'm not a fan of this piece. "Why are they scared? Many of them cite the fact that markets are at record highs and the endless stream of uncertainty in the news. Feel that way yourself? Well guess what: You don’t have to invest the money." If you're basing your willingness to invest on such factors...
by JFP_SF
Fri Jul 28, 2017 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT Carl Richards "You’re No Coward if You’re Keeping Some Money Out of Stocks"
Replies: 42
Views: 6150

Re: NYT Carl Richards "You’re No Coward if You’re Keeping Some Money Out of Stocks"

He says he is reducing risk yet he invested in 3 different businesses. What is the failure rate of new businesses? I guess maybe they aren't new. Seems he traded one risk for another. cd :O) Or perhaps he looks at it as offsetting that risk. I keep a lot more cash around than I should, but I work f...
by JFP_SF
Sat Jul 22, 2017 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 20550

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

In your example both A and B trade at intrinsic value the entire time. In which case, yes the return is equal. Other tangential topics may deserve consideration, but the main point of this thread was conceded here. Yeah, seriously. If only we knew which companies would pay a 10% dividend in perpetu...
by JFP_SF
Sat Jul 22, 2017 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 20550

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

Like I said, I don't have a dog in this fight. I was simply asking a question. I just picked that article because it was the first one of many that came up in Google. Whether dividend paying stocks are less volatile seems like a simple empirical question, but I couldn't easily find research to answ...
by JFP_SF
Sat Jul 22, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 20550

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

Like I said, I don't have a dog in this fight. I was simply asking a question. I just picked that article because it was the first one of many that came up in Google. Whether dividend paying stocks are less volatile seems like a simple empirical question, but I couldn't easily find research to answ...
by JFP_SF
Sat Jul 22, 2017 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 20550

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

The math works as long as you assume each stock will rise and fall the exact same amount. How likely is that? I don't have a dog in this fight, but there are a lot of people arguing that dividend paying stocks are less volatile. See http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/pricevolatilitydividend...
by JFP_SF
Sat Jul 22, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 20550

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

This is an optical illusion. Your dividends reduce the value of the stock by the exact same amount. Thus, dividend stocks are not lower risk than non-dividend stocks. In fact, dividend stocks tend to be value stocks and thus are probably marginally higher risk than Total Market stocks, though also ...
by JFP_SF
Wed Jul 05, 2017 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seeking new investment advisor - suggestions?
Replies: 14
Views: 1259

Re: Seeking new investment advisor - suggestions?

Ed Boglehead. :wink: 75 posts and reading/learning here and you do not have the confidence to run a 1 or 3 fund portfolio at Vanguard or Fidelity? Have you asked questions about the parts that are still confusing? The Boglehead rate of $0.00/hour is hard to beat. I'm sure you will get some potentia...
by JFP_SF
Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are you finding any good values at Amazon anymore?
Replies: 169
Views: 21100

Re: Are you finding any good values at Amazon anymore?

I work for a company that for business reasons tracks the pricing on Amazon pretty closely. Amazon only has the lowest price for an item in about 7% of cases. As long as they are pretty close in price, most people still use them for convenience.
by JFP_SF
Wed Jun 21, 2017 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard restricts my account due to mail?
Replies: 41
Views: 4186

Re: Vanguard restricts my account due to mail?

I received a letter to go change my address by calling or writing Vanguard because some mail was returned to them as undeliverable. I checked and the address on my account was correct. Now, they sent me an email that my accounts are restricted. I cannot sell anything or transfer money. I have it se...
by JFP_SF
Fri Jun 16, 2017 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trust Fund Hell
Replies: 66
Views: 10275

Re: Trust Fund Hell

I find it kind of funny that everyone just passed over this. If the trust fund out-performed the S&P, how is this "trust fund hell?" It would be interesting if there were a calculation of how much money went to the broker over this time that could have gone to the beneficiaries. I agree, but you we...
by JFP_SF
Fri Jun 16, 2017 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trust Fund Hell
Replies: 66
Views: 10275

Re: Trust Fund Hell

Trust Fund Hell in blue. Boglehead 3-fund in red. The trust fund outperformed the S&P 500 during the time frame that matches your adopted daughter's time window… It could have been worse. http://i.imgur.com/X7aLpgT.png I find it kind of funny that everyone just passed over this. If the trust fund o...
by JFP_SF
Mon May 08, 2017 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Solid justification for including all stocks & NO bonds?
Replies: 143
Views: 9315

Re: Solid justification for including all stocks & NO bonds?

Except the 60/40 portfolio would not drop the same amount as a 100% stock portfolio. Possibly, the bonds could rise in value at the same time the stocks were dropping. They didn't drop the same amount. One lost $15M (50% of 100% of it's balance)and one lost $6.3M (50% of 60% of it's balance) and pe...
by JFP_SF
Mon May 08, 2017 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Solid justification for including all stocks & NO bonds?
Replies: 143
Views: 9315

Re: Solid justification for including all stocks & NO bonds?

knpstr, <<So after a "catastrophic, risky" 50% drop at the start of retirement after 30 years >> If a person can count on that the stock market will not have any severe drop over the next 30 years, why do we need to discuss? The severe drop could happen anytime and several times over the next 30 ye...
by JFP_SF
Mon May 08, 2017 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe
Replies: 66
Views: 10512

Re: If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jack-bogle-envisions-chaos-catastrophe-markets-everyone-indexed-194610197.html “If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe,” said Jack Bogle, founder of Vanguard, at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting on Saturday. “There would be no tra...
by JFP_SF
Mon May 08, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Solid justification for including all stocks & NO bonds?
Replies: 143
Views: 9315

Re: Solid justification for including all stocks & NO bonds?

This is a pretty fascinating thread. It's almost a test of how close we are to irrational exuberance.
by JFP_SF
Mon May 08, 2017 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet and Bogle on bonds
Replies: 24
Views: 3840

Re: Buffet and Bogle on bonds

Just saw parts of clips of both Buffet and Bogle on CNBC. Bogle mentioned 3% return on bonds vs 4% on stocks. Don't know how conservative or realistic those numbers are, but (especially for stocks) those are lower than historic. Bogle does put it in context of valuation. Buffet mentioned that stock...
by JFP_SF
Sun May 07, 2017 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Solid justification for including all stocks & NO bonds?
Replies: 143
Views: 9315

Re: Solid justification for including all stocks & NO bonds?

And a follow-up to my initial question, about the two kinds of risk - are there any horror stories of folks out there who have invested in wise investments, e.g., VT or VTI and literally lost everything long-term? Not just being down a few years, but never came back? It seems to me that if the mark...
by JFP_SF
Sun May 07, 2017 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Solid justification for including all stocks & NO bonds?
Replies: 143
Views: 9315

Re: Solid justification for including all stocks & NO bonds?

And a follow-up to my initial question, about the two kinds of risk - are there any horror stories of folks out there who have invested in wise investments, e.g., VT or VTI and literally lost everything long-term? Not just being down a few years, but never came back? It seems to me that if the mark...
by JFP_SF
Sun May 07, 2017 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Solid justification for including all stocks & NO bonds?
Replies: 143
Views: 9315

Re: Solid justification for including all stocks & NO bonds?

OP, It is very simple. You do not have the ability to take the risk of 100/0. You cannot afford to lose the money. So, it does not matter whether you are willing to take the risk. You cannot afford to. You could neither earn or save this amount for your whole life. In order to save 1 million, you n...
by JFP_SF
Sun May 07, 2017 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Solid justification for including all stocks & NO bonds?
Replies: 143
Views: 9315

Re: Solid justification for including all stocks & NO bonds?

My next, with a brief background: Mid-30s, nonprofit/education with little disposable income, but likely an inheritance of around $1-2M. I'm considering how to invest that. I'd be in for the long-term - 30-50 years, though likely keeping dividends along the way (at least at first) to bolster near-t...
by JFP_SF
Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 663
Views: 153196

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

Actually, it did. You could carry it with you as you ran away and hid. Try that with a factory or a vineyard. Scenario 1: You have one estate in Locale A, and another estate in Locale B. As some disaster sweeps through Locale A, you flee to that estate in Locale B. Scenario 2: You have an estate in...
by JFP_SF
Sat Apr 29, 2017 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 663
Views: 153196

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

1) Gold has lasted longer than any other entity as a monetary asset and store of value. No land title, currency, business, or bond can equate. Again, no cherry picking. Everything else has turned to ashes. When armed enemy soldiers come and murder or enslave you, plus also take your gold, your gold...
by JFP_SF
Sat Apr 29, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what's the theory behind this active vs Passive report
Replies: 15
Views: 1756

Re: So what's the theory behind this active vs Passive report

Here's Dalbar's explanation: “The explanations for why active investments caught up with the superior investment statistics of the passive funds include better investor retention during market downturns, asset allocation, and capital preservation strategies of active investments,” Dalbar said. The c...
by JFP_SF
Thu Apr 27, 2017 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 663
Views: 153196

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

So I just crawled through the years of the free-floating era, comparing the PP versus my two other portfolios with the same amount of stock--the 25/75, which I will call the "bonds" portfolio, and the 25/37.5/37.5, which I will call the "cash" portfolio. The PP was dominated by both other portfolio...
by JFP_SF
Thu Apr 27, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 663
Views: 153196

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

So I just crawled through the years of the free-floating era, comparing the PP versus my two other portfolios with the same amount of stock--the 25/75, which I will call the "bonds" portfolio, and the 25/37.5/37.5, which I will call the "cash" portfolio. The PP was dominated by both other portfolio...
by JFP_SF
Sat Apr 08, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why cheaper index funds translate into lower future returns
Replies: 26
Views: 4791

Re: Why cheaper index funds translate into lower future returns

If you actually dig into the article, what he is saying is: "Increased availability and popularity of vehicles that allow for cheap, convenient, well-diversified market exposure increases the pool of money inclined to bid on equities as an asset class–not only during the good times, but also when b...
by JFP_SF
Fri Apr 07, 2017 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why cheaper index funds translate into lower future returns
Replies: 26
Views: 4791

Re: Why cheaper index funds translate into lower future returns

If you actually dig into the article, what he is saying is: "Increased availability and popularity of vehicles that allow for cheap, convenient, well-diversified market exposure increases the pool of money inclined to bid on equities as an asset class–not only during the good times, but also when bu...
by JFP_SF
Sun Mar 26, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: an in depth look at gold
Replies: 91
Views: 8488

Re: an in depth look at gold

I was thinking the same thing. His rigor is not equally applied across the board or he would be paralyzed by his analysis. As it turns out, I don't do any back-testing for optimization purposes at all, and yet I do in fact remain unparalyzed. Ultimately I found it quite liberating to accept that I ...
by JFP_SF
Sat Mar 25, 2017 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: an in depth look at gold
Replies: 91
Views: 8488

Re: an in depth look at gold

Information a bit dated but does compare gold over a 40+ year period. Again, increasing the length of the sample does not necessarily help if there is a structural break during the sample period. Indeed, to the extent you are adding more data from before the structural break (in this case going all...
by JFP_SF
Mon Mar 20, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's worth remembering that bull markets don't last forever
Replies: 95
Views: 8568

Re: It's worth remembering that bull markets don't last forever

These net worth calculations take on a new light when you're near or in retirement as opposed to accumulating. I just back-tested a sample investment portfolio of 700k using the years 2006-2016 on a monthly basis (thankfully TSP gives you monthly return data for many years back) with the conservati...
by JFP_SF
Sun Mar 19, 2017 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's worth remembering that bull markets don't last forever
Replies: 95
Views: 8568

Re: It's worth remembering that bull markets don't last forever

whilst the United States didn't see the same level in real terms until August 1993—over twenty years after the 1973–74 crash began.[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973%E2%80%9374_stock_market_crash Sorry but this is plain nonsense. Use Portfolio Visualizer or some other visualization tool. When I...
by JFP_SF
Sun Mar 19, 2017 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's worth remembering that bull markets don't last forever
Replies: 95
Views: 8568

Re: It's worth remembering that bull markets don't last forever

As always, there's a huge difference between an accumulation portfolio and a dis-accumulation portfolio. If you are accumulating, you can ride out crashes a lot easier. If you are a retiree who is drawing down their portfolio, it's can literally be impossible to ride out a crash. Not really - with ...
by JFP_SF
Sun Mar 19, 2017 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab: Is There Ever a Bad Time to Invest?
Replies: 22
Views: 4080

Re: Schwab: Is There Ever a Bad Time to Invest?

Never a bad time to invest. It is about the economy. It never stops running ,, neither does compounding. :happy Actually, the economy stops running all the time It's not running in Venezuela now It didn't run in Russia during the Bolshevik revolution It really didn't run in Carthage after the Roman...
by JFP_SF
Sun Mar 19, 2017 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab: Is There Ever a Bad Time to Invest?
Replies: 22
Views: 4080

Re: Schwab: Is There Ever a Bad Time to Invest?

There's really two contrasting issues you have to balance 1) In the long run, stocks win. 2) In the long run, we are all dead. So, if I'm in my twenties and thirties, even early forties, I'd say there's no bad time to invest in stocks. If I'm retired, or about to retire, I'd be more concerned with p...
by JFP_SF
Sun Mar 19, 2017 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: an in depth look at gold
Replies: 91
Views: 8488

Re: an in depth look at gold

As I suggested previously, from my perspective there is no prima facie appeal to holding non-productive assets like bricks of paper money or chunks of gold in a long-term investment portfolio. I think you've hit the nail on the head as to why so many Bogleheads are opposed to gold. It has everythin...
by JFP_SF
Sun Mar 19, 2017 2:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another Rent vs. Buy Thread... (General, Not Specifics)
Replies: 4
Views: 723

Re: Another Rent vs. Buy Thread... (General, Not Specifics)

The most important financial considerations on whether to buy a house or not are: 1) How long you are going to stay in an area? If it is more than 5-7 years, then buying is usually the best bet if condition 2 (below) is met. 2) Is the general trend of the real-estate market in your area up or is it ...
by JFP_SF
Sun Mar 19, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's worth remembering that bull markets don't last forever
Replies: 95
Views: 8568

Re: It's worth remembering that bull markets don't last forever

The lesson is that you can't really know how to call it. So the best bet is to decide how much exposure you need and want and manage (re-balance) as necessary to deal with it. I have been re-balancing periodically back to my 40% target on the way up. I do the same on the way down again. I may go cr...
by JFP_SF
Sun Mar 19, 2017 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: an in depth look at gold
Replies: 91
Views: 8488

Re: an in depth look at gold

I still think the argument fails. All back-tested periods have unique unrepeatable events that affected assets. Some of them are major like the Russian Revolution's effect on Russian stocks and bonds and some of them are more minor like the advent of Index funds. Prior to the first index fund, hold...