Search found 39 matches

by 30sep16
Sat Dec 30, 2017 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 95
Views: 28697

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

Given that: 1. The top hedge fund investor (Dalio) recommends this portfolio, 2. The other top hedge fund investor (AQR/Asness) also endorsed the same basic AA in their "Commodities for the Long Run" study (looking back to the year 1877 they concluded 29% equities, 54% bonds and 17% commodities was ...
by 30sep16
Mon Oct 09, 2017 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 19016

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

I hadn't seen your earlier post about that, sorry. That is a bit of an extreme portfolio, but if it's your plan and something you can stick to, go for it. I say doesn't move the needle much with the 1% theory, because, well, it doesn't. If someone has $10k invest and $100 of it in Bitcoin, even whe...
by 30sep16
Mon Oct 09, 2017 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 19016

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

I hadn't seen your earlier post about that, sorry. That is a bit of an extreme portfolio, but if it's your plan and something you can stick to, go for it. I say doesn't move the needle much with the 1% theory, because, well, it doesn't. If someone has $10k invest and $100 of it in Bitcoin, even whe...
by 30sep16
Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 19016

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

Unless one has Warren Buffett amounts of money, having 1% of their assets in anything isn't going to move the needle much one way or the other. Why bother? Because your brain is in the habit of thinking about aggressive investments that have upside potentials of 25% a year and downsides of 50% a ye...
by 30sep16
Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 19016

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

Sounds good. I will throw $10K in. How long do you think can the doubling/tripling per year go on for? Another way to buy Bitcoin: There is a new Swedish Bitcoin ETN that made news when Mark Cuban bought into it recently. I've read in a couple of places that if you use Interactive Brokers, you can ...
by 30sep16
Mon Oct 09, 2017 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 19016

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

BlueCable wrote:
Mon Oct 09, 2017 6:59 am
Purchasing Bitcoin may pay off, but it is speculation, not investment. It is little different than buying gold or Swiss francs.
Since August 2010, Bitcoin's CAGR is 381%. Gold 1.6%. Swiss Franc 0.5%.

How can someone take your comment seriously?
by 30sep16
Mon Oct 09, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 19016

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

Unless one has Warren Buffett amounts of money, having 1% of their assets in anything isn't going to move the needle much one way or the other. Why bother? Because your brain is in the habit of thinking about aggressive investments that have upside potentials of 25% a year and downsides of 50% a ye...
by 30sep16
Mon Oct 09, 2017 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 19016

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

WanderingDoc wrote:
Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:59 am
Sounds good. I will throw $10K in. How long do you think can the doubling/tripling per year go on for?
Quite a few years. I refer you to the Horizon Kinetics link on various scenarios for the possible "ceiling" of Bitcoin.
by 30sep16
Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 19016

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

Also, prepare yourself mentally for Bitcoin volatility. Bitcoin recently crashed 40% and it didn't bother me the slightest, while I find an equivalent crash in the stock market traumatizing. Why the difference? Because Bitcoin frequently crashes and recovers from its crashes in a couple months, wher...
by 30sep16
Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 19016

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

And people say we're nuts to hold Bitcoin, which is already up 360% this year. You're nuts not to have 1% in bitcoin. 1% in bitcoin would have added 3.6% to your performance this year, and the most you can lose is 1%. Which you made in a quarter. You just keep frequently scooping off your profits (...
by 30sep16
Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 19016

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

And people say we're nuts to hold Bitcoin, which is already up 360% this year. You're nuts not to have 1% in bitcoin. 1% in bitcoin would have added 3.6% to your performance this year, and the most you can lose is 1%. Which you made in a quarter. You just keep frequently scooping off your profits (w...
by 30sep16
Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: business owner, what is your income from business and how did you get into successfully business, what's your networth?
Replies: 17
Views: 3079

Re: business owner, what is your income from business and how did you get into successfully business, what's your networ

Nice to see this. There are 3 main roads to wealth. Business ownership, real estate, and passive investing. Too many people reading these boards think the 3rd way is all that exists. Anyone who is truly wealthy owns business(es) and/or real estate (or inherited money), not from growing W2 wages in p...
by 30sep16
Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone hold cash?
Replies: 58
Views: 7797

Re: Does anyone hold cash?

92.5% cash
7.5% bitcoin

A barbell portfolio. Up 27% for the year.

My 7.5% allocation to Bitcoin is up 360%. I rebalance the profits off the Bitcoin every 4 to 8 weeks. It can crash to zero, but I've made that 7.5% several times over so I'm still way ahead of that were to happen.
by 30sep16
Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2001
Views: 372306

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Up 27%

7.5% Bitcoin / 92.5% Cash, a barbell portfolio.

My 7.5% allocation to Bitcoin is up 360%. I rebalance the profits off the Bitcoin every 4 to 8 weeks. It can crash to zero, but I've made that 7.5% several times over so I'm still way ahead of that were to happen.
by 30sep16
Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 40
Views: 4371

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

tadamsmar wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:12 pm
You can earn interest on bitcoins. At least that is what google searches indicate.

So there is apparently a form of return that is not what we normally refer to as speculation.
Yes, but there is a lot of risk in those investments. I've looked into them. There is less risk in just holding it.
by 30sep16
Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How an asset with a NEGATIVE return can INCREASE your portfolio's return
Replies: 31
Views: 3826

Re: How an asset with a NEGATIVE return can INCREASE your portfolio's return

First, 2 notes on this. First, I don't sneer at gold et. al. but I am doubtful. If you invest in a economically nonproductive asset then you need to junk large parts of investment theory. Instead you have to rely on market psychology. So from solid ground to guess work. Second, I am skeptical of ba...
by 30sep16
Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How an asset with a NEGATIVE return can INCREASE your portfolio's return
Replies: 31
Views: 3826

Re: How an asset with a NEGATIVE return can INCREASE your portfolio's return

Nate79 wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:39 pm
Did you include the tax drag of monthly rebalancing? (I'm assuming that bitcoin can not be bought in tax advantage account)
No. You can have a bitcoin IRA, although it takes a bit of work (Google it). That will go away as soon as we have a bitcoin ETF.
by 30sep16
Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity
Replies: 51
Views: 3867

Re: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity

I've spent 100+ hours with the Simba backtesting spreadsheet and Portfolio Visualizer. My analysis runs to 1871. (Had to convert years to months and back again to test in PV.) There have been a number of periods where a stock/bond portfolio, real returns after adjusting for inflation, had catastrop...
by 30sep16
Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity
Replies: 51
Views: 3867

Re: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity

Like the guy who just told me my 7.5/92.5 Bitcoin/CDs portfolio is more risky than a stocks/bonds portfolio. When, by choosing 7.5, I am much more CONSERVATIVE about risk than the stocks/bonds mentality is. Especially when we are due for another crash historically speaking. Especially when we are d...
by 30sep16
Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity
Replies: 51
Views: 3867

Re: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity

Why do Bitcoin fanboys get so defensive and attack when people point out potential flaws in their strategy? It seems that every day there is a new Bitcoin fanatic on here hyping it up and then they are gone a few days later. Because, on this website, the number of people here who sneer is much grea...
by 30sep16
Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How an asset with a NEGATIVE return can INCREASE your portfolio's return
Replies: 31
Views: 3826

Re: How an asset with a NEGATIVE return can INCREASE your portfolio's return

Welcome to the world of modern portfolio theory. You don't have to reinvent the wheel, a lot of academic research has already been published. :mrgreen: In all seriousness, you are back testing an asset that had EXTREME volatility and an extremely positive return over the past 7 years. I don't know ...
by 30sep16
Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity
Replies: 51
Views: 3867

Re: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity

Why do Bitcoin fanboys get so defensive and attack when people point out potential flaws in their strategy? It seems that every day there is a new Bitcoin fanatic on here hyping it up and then they are gone a few days later. Because, on this website, the number of people here who sneer is much grea...
by 30sep16
Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How an asset with a NEGATIVE return can INCREASE your portfolio's return
Replies: 31
Views: 3826

How an asset with a NEGATIVE return can INCREASE your portfolio's return

So many folks here sneer at gold, commodities, bitcoin and other investments that don't have a positive return. They think it's given that if you allocate X% of your portfolio to that asset, your overall cumulative returns must necessarily be X% less. But it's not true if the zero-return asset is vo...
by 30sep16
Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity
Replies: 51
Views: 3867

Re: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity

Why do Bitcoin fanboys get so defensive and attack when people point out potential flaws in their strategy? It seems that every day there is a new Bitcoin fanatic on here hyping it up and then they are gone a few days later. Because, on this website, the number of people here who sneer is much grea...
by 30sep16
Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity
Replies: 51
Views: 3867

Re: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity

30sept16 - Curious when you switched to the cash/CD and Bitcoin AA you have. How much of the recent run-up have you missed out on? When the previous person said you'll be worse off with this strategy, they are indicating that you're missing out on potential gains. Sure, the market might tank tomorr...
by 30sep16
Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity
Replies: 51
Views: 3867

Re: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity

In conclusion, I think you're nuts NOT to have a tiny allocation to Bitcoin I think most folks here would think you are nuts to have zero allocation to index funds and have everything in cash and Bitcoin. I hear what you are saying, but basically what it boils down to is that you prefer to gamble o...
by 30sep16
Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 40
Views: 4371

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

This is an interesting thread on Mt. Gox... The guy in the linked video says that for almost its entire existence Mt. Gox was insolvent. And that's a big problem with bitcoin. We are constantly being exhorted about the importance of dealing only with "reputable" entities. But, until it crashed, Mt....
by 30sep16
Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity
Replies: 51
Views: 3867

Re: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity

In it's short history, has anyone calculated the correlation to the global equities market or just the S&P500? Not sure how meaningful it would be, but interesting nonetheless. The monthly correlation of Bitcoin and S&P 500 is 0.17, from July 2010 thru August 2017. I got this by uploading Bitcoin's...
by 30sep16
Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity
Replies: 51
Views: 3867

Re: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity

I don't consider currencies a mean of investing. Currencies were created and used for 2 things (investing is not one of them): 1- As a mean of exchange 2- To speculate on. Your mistake is lumping in Bitcoin with fiat currents of the past and present. It's quite obviously something very different. A...
by 30sep16
Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 40
Views: 4371

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

I don't think "return" is the correct term. You would not call it return if you bought Euro and the dollar went down. Bitcoin is currently functioning like a rapidly accelerating store of value, and not much like a currency. I'll take the former over the latter! Some other cryptocurrency will proba...
by 30sep16
Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 40
Views: 4371

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

Basically his point is that low correlation in and of itself doesn't help you much. You also have to have positive return. That's paraphrasing and deeply simplifying, so I encourage reversion to the source text (The King James Version, usually ;-)). But that's the gist of it. I don't think that's t...
by 30sep16
Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 40
Views: 4371

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

You can get price history back to July 2010 here:
https://www.coindesk.com/price/
by 30sep16
Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity
Replies: 51
Views: 3867

Re: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity

P.S. The easiest way to buy Bitcoin in the U.S. is via Coinbase. If you want to avoid the spread they charge, send your money to Coinbase, and then transfer it to GDAX, their exchange for "pros" where you can avoid any spread or fees at all. It's just a little more technical. Coinbase is Bitcoin for...
by 30sep16
Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity
Replies: 51
Views: 3867

Re: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity

I have 7.5% of my investable assets in Bitcoin and 92.5% in CDs, an extreme "barbell" portfolio. I have nothing in stocks and bonds, which I view as too risky right now. Huh? you say. It's about the ASYMMETRY. Bitcoin can only crash by 100%. But it can and probably will increase by 1,000% or even 10...
by 30sep16
Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: deleted
Replies: 13
Views: 2178

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by 30sep16
Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: deleted
Replies: 13
Views: 2178

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by 30sep16
Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: deleted
Replies: 13
Views: 2178

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by 30sep16
Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: deleted
Replies: 13
Views: 2178

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