Search found 1214 matches

by petulant
Sun May 31, 2020 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Duration Question
Replies: 17
Views: 510

Re: Duration Question

Duration has no bearing whatever on when you should sell a bond fund. Thanks for the reply. The above sentence doesn't make sense to me. If I own a bond fund with a five year duration, and interest rates rise by one percent shortly after I buy it, I will lose money if I sell shortly after the purch...
by petulant
Sun May 31, 2020 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70/30 - Expected Real Return?
Replies: 59
Views: 3879

Re: 70/30 - Expected Real Return?

The s&p500 has averaged 10-11% since 1926. I'm investing for the long haul and think we will see 7% or greater over 30 years. If the s&p500 and total market index are only giving you 2%.....Ally had money market accounts with like a 2.2% return a few years ago. A 2-4% return is ok for something lik...
by petulant
Sun May 31, 2020 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: iShares 0-3 Month Treasury ETF
Replies: 16
Views: 1088

Re: iShares 0-3 Month Treasury ETF

Like many other posters, I am not excited about the low yield of this ETF and don't particularly plan to use it in the near-term. If we ever see Treasury bills move back to the 2% range again, I suspect this ETF will be an easy and convenient option I will look closely at.
by petulant
Sun May 31, 2020 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Duration Question
Replies: 17
Views: 510

Re: Duration Question

There is no absolute rule that one should match duration to their investment time horizon. Matching duration to time horizon is a tool used to reduce reinvestment risk arising from the movement of interest rates during the investment time horizon. For example, an investor with a ten-year time horizo...
by petulant
Sun May 31, 2020 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth Does Not Equal Profits
Replies: 11
Views: 588

Re: Growth Does Not Equal Profits

Sometimes investors think that growth in an industry or in a country's economy means the companies involved are good investments. Surely if there's growth, stocks will go up. That's not always the case. In fact, high growth may even signal lower profits due to heavy competition. An industry with in...
by petulant
Sun May 31, 2020 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth Does Not Equal Profits
Replies: 11
Views: 588

Re: Growth Does Not Equal Profits

OP, Your point is? What is the problem? As an educated individual investor, this is a good thing! In the short-term, people will go crazy and bid up the price of the growth stock. As long as someone is not 100/0 and keep a fixed AA between 70/30 and 30/70, the person will "Buy Low and Sell High". A...
by petulant
Sat May 30, 2020 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth Does Not Equal Profits
Replies: 11
Views: 588

Growth Does Not Equal Profits

Sometimes investors think that growth in an industry or in a country's economy means the companies involved are good investments. Surely if there's growth, stocks will go up. That's not always the case. In fact, high growth may even signal lower profits due to heavy competition. An industry with int...
by petulant
Sat May 30, 2020 3:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 1035? Managing taxes on whole life policy
Replies: 3
Views: 307

Re: 1035? Managing taxes on whole life policy

Is she already on social security or deferring to 70? Either way, the actual marginal tax rate for spreading out may be higher if she's in the range where taxability of SS is growing, but if she takes it all out now she fills in part of the 12% bracket past SS taxability and then just normal 22% bra...
by petulant
Sat May 30, 2020 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mortgage payoff, cap gains, and go for PSLF?
Replies: 7
Views: 661

Re: Mortgage payoff, cap gains, and go for PSLF?

Petulant, Interesting thought. Taxes are due July 15, so re-certify in June? (hypothetically I suppose we could also file an extension til October then re-certify in September?) We just re-certified in December so this would give us an extra 6-9 months of payments and still based on 2018 income. Is...
by petulant
Sat May 30, 2020 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: iShares 0-3 Month Treasury ETF
Replies: 16
Views: 1088

Re: iShares 0-3 Month Treasury ETF

Last week BlackRock launched a new ETF holding Treasury securities with maturities ranging from zero to three months. The ticker is SGOV. Here is the iShares product page and a Bloomberg article: https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf-fund https://www.bloombe...
by petulant
Sat May 30, 2020 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: iShares 0-3 Month Treasury ETF
Replies: 16
Views: 1088

iShares 0-3 Month Treasury ETF

Last week BlackRock launched a new ETF holding Treasury securities with maturities ranging from zero to three months. The ticker is SGOV. Here is the iShares product page and a Bloomberg article: https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf-fund https://www.bloomber...
by petulant
Sat May 30, 2020 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70/30 - Expected Real Return?
Replies: 59
Views: 3879

Re: 70/30 - Expected Real Return?

Well, I think you will get a lot of crystal ball answers. When someone knows, Id like to hear it. I think it is very fair to say Mr. Bogle and others respected on this board feel future returns will be less than past returns, but of course nobody knows. From Rick Ferri to Bill Bernstein to Mr Bogle...
by petulant
Fri May 29, 2020 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70/30 - Expected Real Return?
Replies: 59
Views: 3879

Re: 70/30 - Expected Real Return?

Well, I think you will get a lot of crystal ball answers. When someone knows, Id like to hear it. I think it is very fair to say Mr. Bogle and others respected on this board feel future returns will be less than past returns, but of course nobody knows. From Rick Ferri to Bill Bernstein to Mr Bogle...
by petulant
Fri May 29, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Personal Advisor vs. Local Advisor
Replies: 18
Views: 1333

Re: Vanguard Personal Advisor vs. Local Advisor

The local planner should create a stronger emotional connection that will actually be more useful in responding to behavioral panics. They will also be more familiar with the particulars of your state and local tax and economic situation. The hourly fee may or may not be more expensive, but given th...
by petulant
Fri May 29, 2020 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Two accountants disagree - Bogleheads for the tiebreaker
Replies: 64
Views: 3653

Re: Two accountants disagree - Bogleheads for the tiebreaker

The real answer is, BH collectively doesn't have near enough info about the particular rules or the circumstances of the couple. OP should go back and share concerns with the accountants and see what they say.
by petulant
Fri May 29, 2020 9:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Two accountants disagree - Bogleheads for the tiebreaker
Replies: 64
Views: 3653

Re: Two accountants disagree - Bogleheads for the tiebreaker

Thanks, Mark. I've been surprised everyone has just been assuming this is acceptable. OP, the tax code prevents the assignment of income to whomever you please. Gill I am no expert, but it would seem like a real estate partnership where both are active, it would be possible to execute a legal schem...
by petulant
Fri May 29, 2020 8:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Two accountants disagree - Bogleheads for the tiebreaker
Replies: 64
Views: 3653

Re: Two accountants disagree - Bogleheads for the tiebreaker

Agree with earlier posters--a spreadsheet should be used to determine the ROI of wife making additional contributions. Depending on income, chances are the wife's contributions have a very low ROI. She will be entitled to 1/2 of the husband's social security regardless, so not only is contributing t...
by petulant
Thu May 28, 2020 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mortgage payoff, cap gains, and go for PSLF?
Replies: 7
Views: 661

Re: Mortgage payoff, cap gains, and go for PSLF?

What is your calendar for IDR recertification? Can you strategize better with that? Right now I'm recertifying payments in February using tax information from prior-prior year. Thus, in February 2020 I reset payments with tax information from 2018. If you sell the units in 2020 and time your recerti...
by petulant
Thu May 28, 2020 8:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying foreign ADRs on the OTC using Vanguard/Fidelity
Replies: 15
Views: 648

Re: Buying foreign ADRs on the OTC using Vanguard/Fidelity

Yes, ADRs come with fees. The fees aren't charged by Fidelity or Vanguard. They're charged by the bank issuing the ADR. To have an ADR, which is an "American Depository Receipt," a custodial bank in the United States owns the foreign shares in the company's home market in a sort of a trust. The bank...
by petulant
Thu May 28, 2020 7:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Land Purchase Possible or Forget About It?
Replies: 27
Views: 3027

Re: Land Purchase Possible or Forget About It?

Can your parents just try to buy?
by petulant
Thu May 28, 2020 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index
Replies: 165
Views: 11592

Re: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index

Corporate bonds do carry more risk, but can give better returns. Certainly, but the stocks that most investors have in their portfolio already carry equity risk. I see no need to add equity risk to one's fixed income holdings if one already owns stocks. how is equity risk defined in this situation?...
by petulant
Thu May 28, 2020 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: iBonds and BulletShares - Diversified Corp Bond ETFs with Target Dates
Replies: 9
Views: 640

Re: iBonds and BulletShares - Diversified Corp Bond ETFs with Target Dates

Thanks for the responses. I'll check out the Vanguard paper. Has anybody actually held these to maturity before? I don't know if there was a 2019 fund, so 2020 may be the first vintage to go all the way through. How was the experience? For example, I assume some of the bonds mature during the year. ...
by petulant
Wed May 27, 2020 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: iBonds and BulletShares - Diversified Corp Bond ETFs with Target Dates
Replies: 9
Views: 640

iBonds and BulletShares - Diversified Corp Bond ETFs with Target Dates

Hi everybody, iShares and PowerShares each have a line of products that are very intriguing to me--iBonds and BulletShares, respectively. These are ETFs that invest in investment-grade corporate bonds based on an index with maturity of the bonds in a specified year. For example, the BulletShares 202...
by petulant
Wed May 27, 2020 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage rates headed lower?
Replies: 69
Views: 7142

Re: Mortgage rates headed lower?

Isn't it possible that this is market-driven, not lender driven? What I mean is that banks and other companies originating mortgages will sell them to somebody who has access to investors. Those purchasers aren't just going to take what banks give them--they put in bids to the banks. It could be tha...
by petulant
Wed May 27, 2020 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: LLC or as individual when investing in CRE syndication?
Replies: 10
Views: 541

Re: LLC or as individual when investing in CRE syndication?

If you have any desire to gift partial interests to heirs in the future, or make other changes, the LLC may give you an additional layer of flexibility.
by petulant
Wed May 27, 2020 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]
Replies: 105
Views: 10725

Re: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]

Nouriel Roubini has seemed hyperbolic ever since I had to read some of his materials in college. Don't look for hype from these kinds of people, but like KlangFool says, accept the reality of big risks and plan responsibly.
by petulant
Tue May 26, 2020 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index
Replies: 165
Views: 11592

Re: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index

I have access to a total aggregate bond fund (.02) and stable value fund (.25) in my 401K. But i also have Brokerage Link access so i can use any Fidelity or Ishares fund/ETF as well. Currently my thought process is splitting it 3 ways: 33% Stable Value 33% Short Term Treasury 34% Intermediate Term...
by petulant
Tue May 26, 2020 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BlackRock: How the pandemic changes our long-term asset views
Replies: 3
Views: 867

Re: BlackRock: How the pandemic changes our long-term asset views

1. Define ballast. Most likely BlackRock means an asset that actually goes up during panics, not just one that stays steady. Most likely bonds will remain steady during panic events. I am fine with an asset that remains steady during panic events, if the reason I buy it is for low volatility. Now, i...
by petulant
Tue May 26, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future Marginal Tax Rate Estimator (post from Reddit)
Replies: 9
Views: 510

Re: Future Marginal Tax Rate Estimator (post from Reddit)

There was a long back and forth in the reddit about whether one should include some amount of future contributions when estimating balances at retirement. Not doing so provides a hedge against a shorter-than-expected career, skipping some contribution years, etc., all of which can be voluntary or i...
by petulant
Tue May 26, 2020 4:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For EF "months", are we including unemployment benefits & stated severance policies? And both parts of a couple?
Replies: 19
Views: 1088

Re: For EF "months", are we including unemployment benefits & stated severance policies? And both parts of a couple?

You need an emergency plan, not just an emergency fund. This plan should cover a number of different scenarios and "what if's" and how you would pay for it. Emergencies are not just loss of jobs but new roof, replacement car (or fix), max out of pocket healthcare cost, etc as well as a few of these...
by petulant
Tue May 26, 2020 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity HSA - 2 fund Vanguard or 2 fund fidelity ZERO fee?
Replies: 19
Views: 1007

Re: Fidelity HSA - 2 fund Vanguard or 2 fund fidelity ZERO fee?

Fidelity has a wide range of other, more traditional mutual funds that you can access in the HSA. I use the S&P 500 and EAFE funds. They also have total stock market and total international funds. I prefer using well-recognized indexes with accountability at negligible, immaterial expense ratios, so...
by petulant
Tue May 26, 2020 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 17947

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Nobody in this thread is saying to fund a fixed nominal amount of consumption in 20 years with only bonds. And nothing in my example requires the dollars to be nominal. If you'd rather think in terms of "real" dollars, then feel free to do so. The question is the same with either real dollars or no...
by petulant
Tue May 26, 2020 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 17947

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Nobody in this thread is saying to fund a fixed nominal amount of consumption in 20 years with only bonds. And nothing in my example requires the dollars to be nominal. If you'd rather think in terms of "real" dollars, then feel free to do so. The question is the same with either real dollars or no...
by petulant
Tue May 26, 2020 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 17947

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Nobody in this thread is saying to fund a fixed nominal amount of consumption in 20 years with only bonds.
by petulant
Mon May 25, 2020 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 17947

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Here it is so other people can decide - do the past 20 years give us a better picture of the range of future possibilities ... or the past 90? I won’t bore you with details (lest I be accused again of relying on my professional training and education instead using “plain folks talk”), but due to a ...
by petulant
Mon May 25, 2020 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 17947

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

On some risk metrics, shorter bonds are indeed safer. There's only one risk metric that matters to long-term investors, and short-term bonds aren't "safer" by that metric. Strange. I'm a long-term investor and concerned with a variety of risks. Also fairly sure I'm not the only one ... :confused Un...
by petulant
Sun May 24, 2020 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 17947

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Here it is so other people can decide - do the past 20 years give us a better picture of the range of future possibilities ... or the past 90? I won’t bore you with details (lest I be accused again of relying on my professional training and education instead using “plain folks talk”), but due to a ...
by petulant
Sun May 24, 2020 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recommend a China-focused, risk-seeking fund
Replies: 31
Views: 1778

Re: Recommend a China-focused, risk-seeking fund

Maybe you don't follow the news. SandRidge is on the cusp of a second bankruptcy, and Chesapeake is about to go bust. It's a joke about taking significant risk for very little expected reward. See the news about Luckin Coffee. This isn't is a good idea. I understood exactly what you were getting at...
by petulant
Sun May 24, 2020 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recommend a China-focused, risk-seeking fund
Replies: 31
Views: 1778

Re: Recommend a China-focused, risk-seeking fund

In the same vein, could somebody recommend an oil and gas fund with above average risk? Plenty of existing funds have Exxon and Chevron, but I'm looking for a fund that invests in mavericks like Chesapeake and SandRidge. That sounds like a great topic...for another thread. Please start it and leave...
by petulant
Sat May 23, 2020 7:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recommend a China-focused, risk-seeking fund
Replies: 31
Views: 1778

Re: Recommend a China-focused, risk-seeking fund

In the same vein, could somebody recommend an oil and gas fund with above average risk? Plenty of existing funds have Exxon and Chevron, but I'm looking for a fund that invests in mavericks like Chesapeake and SandRidge.
by petulant
Sat May 23, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian comments on the crisis
Replies: 63
Views: 6638

Re: El-Erian comments on the crisis

Interesting interview and comments from someone who has IMO a good understanding of markets and the economy. Like Zell, he doesn't think a V shaped recovery is a sure thing. Lots of risk still out there and our options to deal with it are robust but less than perfect. Sobering assessment. https://w...
by petulant
Sat May 23, 2020 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 17947

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Nowhere did I say accumulators would be "better off" with 100% stocks. What I am arguing is that, to the extent they are considering long-term bonds, they are better off using more stocks. This is simply untrue. I agree that most accumulators should have equity-heavy portfolios. But TO THE EXTENT t...
by petulant
Sat May 23, 2020 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 17947

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Even on the terms of your analysis, while the retirees' time horizon might be long, that doesn't mean the bond and equity allocations of the portfolio should both be equally matched to all time periods of the time horizon. Perhaps some people think this way, I don't know. It would be a form of ment...
by petulant
Sat May 23, 2020 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 17947

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

While I take your point that retirees might still want some duration, I think this dodges the point by limiting the analysis to a very specific group of investors. Accumulators are a key group of investors who might have an interest in long term bonds, and the upshot is that they would be better of...
by petulant
Sat May 23, 2020 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 17947

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

While I take your point that retirees might still want some duration, I think this dodges the point by limiting the analysis to a very specific group of investors. Accumulators are a key group of investors who might have an interest in long term bonds, and the upshot is that they would be better of...
by petulant
Sat May 23, 2020 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 17947

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

But that leads to another question that undermines the whole point of long-term bonds. If the investor has a need for the funds far enough in the future to have a long duration, then the investor also presumably has little near-term need for the stock portion of the portfolio. The same principle th...
by petulant
Sat May 23, 2020 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 17947

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Now, here's the tricky part: how do you rebalance without taking interest rate risk if you buy a 30 year? You probably wouldn't be rebalancing from long-term bonds to short-term bonds, so rebalancing doesn't typically affect your average portfolio duration. So you would not be rebalancing from long...
by petulant
Fri May 22, 2020 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax attorney weirdness
Replies: 40
Views: 3218

Re: Tax attorney weirdness

As another poster mentioned, in most cases there's very little an individual can do to reduce his or her income tax liability, beyond contributing to retirement plans, tax-efficient investing, and other fairly straightforward techniques you'll see discussed regularly on this site (and which an expe...
by petulant
Fri May 22, 2020 8:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Funds Advise
Replies: 2
Views: 174

Re: Funds Advise

Without showing the available fund choices in His and Her 401k plans, how can we advise what funds to use to lower your stock exposure? I also notice that you are invested in FXAIX and VTI, choose one or the other, they both have identical performance. One is a S&P500 stock mutual fund, the other o...
by petulant
Fri May 22, 2020 7:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Open Social Security strategy results question
Replies: 58
Views: 3986

Re: Open Social Security strategy results question

So, I was trying to say in my previous post that if I'm going to be already past the point of the hump, it may make sense to just withdraw (or convert to Roth) to the top of the 12% bracket. Does that make sense? Yes. If your "unavoidable" income puts you past the hump, such that your marginal rate...