Search found 1920 matches

by Scott S
Mon Oct 02, 2023 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: iPhone 13 Mini - Any User Feedback?
Replies: 40
Views: 3730

Re: iPhone 13 Mini - Any User Feedback?

I have the 12-mini which is basically the same phone with one generation earlier processor and a bit less battery capacity. I "mourn" the end of the minis. I'm planning to keep mine as long as possible. Same here. My small hands and short thumbs much prefer a smaller form factor. I really miss my iPhone 4, truth be told! Since many of my phones were hand-me-downs to begin with, I've just gotten used to running the brightness and volume at low levels to stretch out the charge. (Edit: One other tip to help the battery live longer is NOT to charge it to 100% every time. Shoot for 80-90%, then unplug it.) I suspect that Apple decided to discontinue the Mini with the 12, but came up with the 13 to make sure they used up the 12 mini ch...
by Scott S
Fri Sep 29, 2023 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Active WFH wardrobe
Replies: 71
Views: 7045

Re: Active WFH wardrobe

Cargo shorts, a T-shirt, and bare feet have been my WFH getup. Now that I need to return to the office starting next week, I'll have to start washing more socks and button-up shirts. Sigh...

P.S. One tip for helping your clothes to last longer is to wash them less frequently. Obviously, if you work up a sweat or spill coffee on yourself, they'll need to go into the wash, but I usually get several days out of any given T-shirt or pair of shorts.
by Scott S
Tue Sep 26, 2023 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Perfect timing for EDV (Long term treasury)
Replies: 57
Views: 6531

Re: Perfect timing for EDV (Long term treasury)

Bringing this thread back to life since EDV is now at its all time low. In the history of the ETF since its inception in 2007 the current price below $71 is the lowest it has ever been. Curious as to whether any commenters on the thread are taking another look at EDV now, given that most projections seem to be putting the Fed's terminal rate no higher than 6%. One might even say that EDV has been beaten up almost as much as it can be and has very little downside left in it now. Thoughts? EDV has a lot of "buy the dip" appeal right now. But your first question should always be, "What does my IPS say to do?" Mine has me buying a little EDV, but since most things are dipping lately, I'm not backing up the truck on it alone.
by Scott S
Thu Feb 09, 2023 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: French Language Learning Program
Replies: 13
Views: 1724

Re: French Language Learning Program

hohum wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 5:36 pm4. After a year or so of this reading and listening, get a tutor on italki.com and speak French a couple hours of week.
This advice is okay if the OP's wife is in no hurry, but current thinking is that a language learner makes the fastest progress if they try to speak in the language with others as soon as possible. Her background in Spanish gives her more of a head start than she may realize due to all of the cognates.

So my advice would be to find a local French-speaking Meetup group, or some other live chatting group right away. When one spends a whole year (or more) reading or playing games but still can't get through a simple conversation after that time, it can be very discouraging.
by Scott S
Tue Dec 06, 2022 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how many use buckets?
Replies: 80
Views: 7396

Re: how many use buckets?

I prefer to think of all of our savings/investments as one big pile, invested enough in stocks to have a decent return over time, but diversified enough to reduce volatility a bit for stability. That it is spread across 401k's, Roths, the 529, and bank accounts is just because of the benefits of those types of accounts.

Some people need to carve their money into discrete piles that are invested differently for different timeframes, and that's valid, too. I think people are just mentally wired to prefer thinking about it one way or the other. Whatever works for you!
by Scott S
Sat Dec 03, 2022 12:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How is this possible? [Negative return on investment over past 10 years]
Replies: 110
Views: 17374

Re: How is this possible?

Mr. Potter wrote: Sat Dec 03, 2022 12:15 pmAgreed, I told my friend there’s no investment scenario I could think of that could have lost you money over this 10 year stretch.
There have been lots of ways to lose money over the last ten years. :wink: But just assuming good intent, a "safe/conservative" investment in Total Bond Market ten years ago is only up about 14% today. It doesn't take much in the way of fees to cancel out that gain entirely.

It's unfortunate, but could have gone a lot worse for your friend if you think about it...
by Scott S
Thu Nov 24, 2022 1:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring in Three Years: Only Enough Cash For Taco Bell THANK YOU
Replies: 106
Views: 16885

Re: Retiring in Three Years: Only Enough Cash For Taco Bell

I have trouble letting very much cash sit around uninvested, too. I'm in no rush to change my mind or have my mind changed on that, though. :sharebeer

Sadly, Taco Bell has taken so many of my favorites off their menu, that I don't have much enthusiasm to go there anymore. I used to love them when I was younger...
by Scott S
Mon Nov 21, 2022 2:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I still have Flagship status!
Replies: 33
Views: 5163

Re: I still have Flagship status!

I have an Admiral shares fund (VAIPX) that dipped below its $50,000 minimum months ago (solely due to the market), but it has yet to be demoted back to Investor shares.

I suspect that the upset from customers over demoting them to a lower tier would outweigh any benefits that Vanguard would get from doing so, so they tend to avoid it.
by Scott S
Fri Nov 18, 2022 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What "IF" there is a recession?
Replies: 78
Views: 7520

Re: What "IF" there is a recession?

Munir wrote: Fri Nov 18, 2022 12:59 pmThe question is very legitimate. IF there is a recession, what will happen to stocks and bonds based on our experience with previous recessions? I assumed the answers would be: they will go up, or down, or I don't know.
All of which was in the first reply, so not much else for us to do but head into the weeds. :D
by Scott S
Fri Nov 18, 2022 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What "IF" there is a recession?
Replies: 78
Views: 7520

Re: What "IF" there is a recession?

Bjtsven wrote: Fri Nov 18, 2022 7:08 amIn General, what would happen to our investments if there is a recession next year as the economists predict?
You can find "economists" predicting a recession every year. It's attention-seeking behavior. ;)
by Scott S
Fri Nov 18, 2022 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unexpected inflation - looking forward
Replies: 20
Views: 2504

Re: Unexpected inflation - looking forward

The lesson everyone should have learned, if they didn't know it already, is that inflation can happen whether you "expected" it or not. Your plan should include that possibility.
by Scott S
Fri May 13, 2022 11:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Giving Investment Advice to Friends and Relatives
Replies: 43
Views: 4577

Re: Giving Investment Advice to Friends and Relatives

Rob discusses how he had conversations with his kids and even friends. He didn't hit them over the head with information. He didn't put down his friends' advisors. He didn't give them books and so on. He didn't start the conversations, they did. But when they did...he didn't give information. Instead, he asked questions. [snip] And so on. That sort of thing. You'll see that asking questions is a better way of getting people to find the answers to questions they don't know. If they care to. Many people prefer to remain ignorant for some reason that's beyond me. Ignorance is bliss they say. It's also expensive. Great stuff! We get so proud of the things we've learned, and we want so badly to share them, but it's often more powerful when peop...
by Scott S
Fri May 13, 2022 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 1587
Views: 211662

Re: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?

Investing in ARKK and its sister funds was one of the best decisions of my life. After a year of having a professional job at the age of 23 and a decent amount of money, I decided to invest in all of Wood's funds at its height in in beginning of February 2021. Welcome to the forums. You had me in the first couple of sentences, not gonna lie... :mrgreen: 7. Step 7 would be investors pulling out too late after realizing this fund manager got lucky and that opportunity for insane gains was never possible. But if you adjust for Wood's losses, her main fund has posted inflows, which is absolutely incredible given how far it's fallen. I guess her mental tricks of saying I'm innovation. I picked Tesla, I'm a genius and I will pick the next one ha...
by Scott S
Fri May 13, 2022 1:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold's Strange Behavior Shows It's No Haven
Replies: 53
Views: 5912

Re: Gold's Strange Behavior Shows It's No Haven

NiceUnparticularMan wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 10:34 pm
000 wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 9:17 pmThe banking system makes USD, not the Treasury
Well, it is true that it is the Federal Reserve which determines how many USD are created.
Is that even true when the reserve ratio is 0%?
by Scott S
Thu May 12, 2022 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lessons from this crash
Replies: 290
Views: 34356

Re: Lessons from this crash

HomerJ wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 3:29 pmUgh... You guys are confusing results with strategy.
I'm seeing a lot of that in this thread. Along with "it's different this time", although not in those exact words.

Plus ca change... :beer
by Scott S
Thu May 12, 2022 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lessons from this crash
Replies: 290
Views: 34356

Re: Lessons from this crash

bagastuff wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 12:20 pm I found this forum in the middle of this correction because "tech is the future" quit holding up as an investment plan and I had to understand why.
Welcome aboard! :beer
by Scott S
Wed May 11, 2022 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!
Replies: 2297
Views: 258120

Re: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!

So that's a couple days of NAV gains for LTTs. Why is that, if inflation reports keep coming back hot? Has the bond market already capitulated?
by Scott S
Mon May 09, 2022 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 565
Views: 63228

Re: Gold continues to soar!

My mind always goes back to "Cool Hand Luke" during these discussions. The long-term real return of gold may well be zero, but "sometimes nuthin' can be a real cool hand." :beer
by Scott S
Mon May 09, 2022 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Longer cycling prep
Replies: 103
Views: 9301

Re: Longer cycling prep

I've been using clipless pedals for a long time, and still prefer the SH-56 multi-release cleats and pedals with the tension turned almost all the way down. Good balance of keeping my feet in place on the pedals while still being able to unclip quickly and easily.
by Scott S
Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 1587
Views: 211662

Re: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?

skierincolorado wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 9:18 am It always saddens me when there is so little self reflection when people's opinions are demonstrated to be wrong. On to the next great thing I suppose. Was it always like this? Is it human nature, or are people more vain and less reflective than they used to be?
Our culture doesn't do a very good job of supporting a person when they admit to a mistake and change course. It's seen as "weak" unless they can find someone else to blame for their mistake. So what else is there to do but double-down and try to appear "strong" and "have convictions" until it all blows over? :|
by Scott S
Mon Apr 18, 2022 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help constructing a "safer" 529 account
Replies: 58
Views: 6489

Re: 529s in a downturn

I just treat 529s (well, only one currently) as part of our overall portfolio, invested in the same way. If it does well before our kiddo uses it, great. Anything the 529 doesn't manage to cover will be funded by other savings, just like before 529s existed.
by Scott S
Thu Apr 07, 2022 9:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying treasuries instead of paying off mortgage
Replies: 17
Views: 2342

Re: Buying treasuries instead of paying off mortgage

tcrez wrote: Thu Apr 07, 2022 9:03 amI’m wondering if anyone here has considered buying treasuries in lieu of paying off the mortgage, especially if your interest rates match each other or if the treasuries exceed, allowing you to make a small profit.
Hopefully you are just talking about extra payments and not skipping the regularly-scheduled ones! ;)

But yes, now that the yield on bonds is going above the 2.5% rate on our mortgage, we are no longer in any hurry to pay ours off. I haven't needed to buy bonds to maintain my AA for a couple of years now, so it's been a moot point anyway.
by Scott S
Thu Apr 07, 2022 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Bonds beat inflation over the long-term
Replies: 40
Views: 5051

Re: Treasury Bonds beat inflation over the long-term

Hanksmoney wrote: Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:00 pmI’m trying to best figure out bond fund performance variables. Long term treasury funds like VUSTX/VGLT have performed well during the tailwind from the 1980’s and falling interest rates. That means that people were bullish on buying 30 year notes at 5,6,7% because they knew that 4% 30 year notes were around the corner.
Source for this? It's easy to look back and fantasize about buying LT bonds in 1981, knowing that rates would fall again, but my hunch is that at the time, people were gritting their teeth and just hoping inflation wasn't going to keep getting worse.
by Scott S
Wed Apr 06, 2022 3:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: best lawn mower for around half an acre? do I need a riding?
Replies: 56
Views: 10213

Re: best lawn mower for around half an acre? do I need a riding?

My dad mows their acre+ yard with a push mower. It's great exercise! :wink:
by Scott S
Tue Apr 05, 2022 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!
Replies: 2297
Views: 258120

Re: Bonds in free fall

^ EDV was down 2.76%, just today!
by Scott S
Tue Apr 05, 2022 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the best way to send personal information over e-mail?
Replies: 53
Views: 4439

Re: What is the best way to send personal information over e-mail?

Just ask your employer what they use or prefer. This can't be their first time dealing with it.
by Scott S
Tue Apr 05, 2022 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 565
Views: 63228

Re: Gold continues to soar!

000 wrote: Tue Mar 29, 2022 4:00 pm Seems gold may have found a new support. Together with a bullish long term macro view, I increased my miners allocation today (now ~20%).
You think so? I've been wondering if gold was heading back to ho-hum territory after doing its job during the events of February and March...
by Scott S
Sun Apr 03, 2022 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!
Replies: 2297
Views: 258120

Re: Bonds in free fall

hiddenpower wrote: Sun Apr 03, 2022 9:39 amIf you feel confident the fed was going to raise rates, like in December/January, is it such a bad thing to switch the bond portion to cash? It doesn't seem like such a tragic tweak.
People have been confidently switching from bonds to cash in anticipation of rising rates for the whole 14 years I've been here; probably longer.
by Scott S
Sat Mar 26, 2022 2:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: EDV as part of my bond allocation?
Replies: 75
Views: 10979

Re: EDV as part of my bond allocation?

I have EDV in my portfolio (not as much as planned yet due to a couple factors, but it's there.) My investment horizon is really long, though -- roughly 50 years if I don't get hit by a beer truck along the way. Even though the duration of EDV is something like 25 years, bond market cycles can be longer, and I'm not sure I'd make the same choices in my late 50s. Be especially careful looking at the past returns on funds like this. Long-Term Treasurys benefitted from a ~40 year period of declining rates which is probably over, barring some new crisis. There might be a lot more losses in store for LTTs before we hit the point of indifference . If you're cool with that (as I am) it should work out in the end, but my concern for you would be wh...
by Scott S
Sat Mar 26, 2022 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!
Replies: 2297
Views: 258120

Re: Bonds in free fall

Who's the "we" that didn't see 50 bps rate hikes as a possibility, especially after they stalled so long? And if the market is responding to anticipated rate hikes as well, doesn't that mean they're pricing in a lot of the future "pain" now, and it might not be so bad when the Fed continues its 25-50 bps increases? It's hard to say because we're still talking about 2.37% here when inflation is 8%. I'm not so sure if "a lot of the future pain" is priced in just yet. That's the thing: bond yields aren't even remotely close to current inflation. In fact, the gap between inflation and nominal bond yields is (or at least recently was) larger than at any prior point in U.S. history. However, I'm not sure that the Fe...
by Scott S
Fri Mar 25, 2022 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SORR and Early Retirees [Sequence of Returns Risk]
Replies: 84
Views: 6888

Re: SORR and Early Retirees

SORR happens when the market goes down right after walking, but you don't cut spending and your effective WR becomes 6~8% and such instead of 3~4%. A good solution is to simply cap your WR% according to the withdrawal method, which percentage-based methods do. Sequence of Returns Risk can show up at *any* time during retirement, not just at the very beginning. It's arguably worse if the really bad returns or inflation happen toward the end, because the retiree has much less ability to fix their situation. No, this is not correct. If you don't have bad returns or inflation until near the end, then that means you had decent to good returns for all the years before hand, and only pulling 4% in those early years means your account has grown a ...
by Scott S
Fri Mar 25, 2022 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SORR and Early Retirees [Sequence of Returns Risk]
Replies: 84
Views: 6888

Re: SORR and Early Retirees

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Mar 24, 2022 3:36 pmSORR happens when the market goes down right after walking, but you don't cut spending and your effective WR becomes 6~8% and such instead of 3~4%. A good solution is to simply cap your WR% according to the withdrawal method, which percentage-based methods do.
Sequence of Returns Risk can show up at *any* time during retirement, not just at the very beginning. It's arguably worse if the really bad returns or inflation happen toward the end, because the retiree has much less ability to fix their situation.
by Scott S
Fri Mar 25, 2022 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When to buy Bonds for my $200K Backup Bucket?
Replies: 7
Views: 1406

Re: When to buy Bonds for my $200K Backup Bucket?

dbr wrote: Fri Mar 25, 2022 10:46 am I think your overall thought process is the opposite of "keep it simple."

Is it really that useful to break everything up into all these buckets?
I was just about to post this same thought! :mrgreen:
by Scott S
Thu Mar 24, 2022 10:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 50 Year Retirement - What withdrawal rate would you be comfortable with?
Replies: 165
Views: 17369

Re: 50 Year Retirement - What withdrawal rate would you be comfortable with?

PortfolioCharts gives my target asset allocation a 4.6% SWR and a 4% PWR over the 40-year periods for which it (he) has data. Since the PWR tends to level out so quickly, I'd feel pretty comfortable with that 4% even if I did think I had 50+ years left in me by the time I retire.

Over the last couple of years, I've started to get more worried about lifestyle inflation than anything else in our plan. It's insidious!
by Scott S
Wed Mar 23, 2022 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Golden Butterfly - but more international
Replies: 10
Views: 1790

Re: Golden Butterfly - but more international

Thanks all. I am concerned that it might not be as easy as just substituting a world stock fund for total US stock fund. The data is based on specific correlations and reverse correlations with US TSM, US SCV, and US bonds - and gold. I am concerned that if I just substitute in a world stock fund that there is no data supporting the natural reverse correlations that the past has shown...Just thinking out loud here. I might just stick with the US version though I have a lot of concerns. At least there is still data support (knowing that past performance is not...etc.....) Thanks for the input. It appears no one has created a "world version" of the GB that is supported by similar data. :sharebeer "No data" is totally wron...
by Scott S
Wed Mar 23, 2022 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification and haystacks
Replies: 45
Views: 4485

Re: Diversification and haystacks

SimpleGift wrote: Wed Mar 23, 2022 10:26 amJust as some folks avoid junk bonds, this investor has come to avoid stocks in state-controlled markets.
Perhaps we could say that we're not obligated to invest in every haystack, but we can pick the haystacks we understand and believe in. :beer
by Scott S
Wed Mar 23, 2022 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!
Replies: 2297
Views: 258120

Re: Bonds in free fall

Who's the "we" that didn't see 50 bps rate hikes as a possibility, especially after they stalled so long?

And if the market is responding to anticipated rate hikes as well, doesn't that mean they're pricing in a lot of the future "pain" now, and it might not be so bad when the Fed continues its 25-50 bps increases?
by Scott S
Wed Mar 23, 2022 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!
Replies: 2297
Views: 258120

Re: Bonds in free fall

Robot Monster wrote: Wed Mar 23, 2022 8:39 amIt's the speed at which it's happening that's disconcerting. It's like getting into a very cold pool. You want to do it nicely and slowly--easy does it there, chief! Instead:

"The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Index has lost 5.55% so far this year, on pace for a record quarterly decline and surpassing the 5.45% slump at the start of 1980."

"Fright in Bond Markets Feels Like 2007 All Over Again"
More hysterical clickbait headlines for a Fed move that -- as I understand it -- was as small as possible (25 bps)! There's a good argument for them to be making aggressive moves now, to show everyone that they're serious. Rip off that band-aid! :twisted:
by Scott S
Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early on in FIRE - what should I be thinking about?
Replies: 16
Views: 2536

Re: Early on in FIRE - what should I be thinking about?

NewDocMD20 wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 1:47 pm5. What things have I not addressed that I need to think about?
What do you guys plan to do with yourselves once retired? Always better to retire to something than to quit and be bored to death. :wink:
by Scott S
Tue Mar 22, 2022 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!
Replies: 2297
Views: 258120

Re: Bonds in free fall

"This Is Now The Worst Drawdown on Record for Global Fixed Income" Bloomberg article link Losses in global bond markets have marked a milestone. --Worst inflation in decades is hammering fixed-income markets --Stagflation risks are leaving credit particularly vulnerable “A high volatility regime should remain in place in the months ahead as the situation remains fluid on the geopolitical and economic front,” said Norman Villamin, chief investment officer wealth management at Union Bancaire Privee, adding that investors should focus on credit quality and stay short duration. The recommendation to stay short duration is the noise we're all supposed to be ignoring, right? Otherwise it's timing the bond market? I do admit I kinda fee...
by Scott S
Tue Mar 22, 2022 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!
Replies: 2297
Views: 258120

Re: Bonds in free fall

Perhaps you (and a lot of other people in this thread, to be frank), should be investing in individual bonds rather than bond funds. That way, their value won't fluctuate, and you know exactly what you'll get. Individual bonds' values do actually fluctuate. I have individual long-term TIPS and they have been having lots of fluctuations lately. Been -2% or +2% at times. Kinda unpleasant. Takes getting used to, I figure. Like being punched in the gut. Eventually you like it. You know, I wondered if adding that second sentence would be a mistake. :oops: As I should have known/remembered, TIPS respond to inflation by adjusting the face value, so yeah, they'll fluctuate a bit. (Thanks, Investopedia!) Fluctuate, yes, but if you hold to maturity,...
by Scott S
Tue Mar 22, 2022 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: With the advances in data analytics technology, are there now tools that can accurately predict market trends?
Replies: 40
Views: 4421

Re: With the advances in data analytics technology, are there now tools that can accurately predict market trends?

muffins14 wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:52 pmI predict a significant upward trend in the market starting sometime in the future.
But after that, a crash is coming, and it may be terrific. ;)
by Scott S
Tue Mar 22, 2022 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!
Replies: 2297
Views: 258120

Re: Bonds in free fall

Robot Monster wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 3:09 pm
Scott S wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 2:59 pmPerhaps you (and a lot of other people in this thread, to be frank), should be investing in individual bonds rather than bond funds. That way, their value won't fluctuate, and you know exactly what you'll get.
Individual bonds' values do actually fluctuate. I have individual long-term TIPS and they have been having lots of fluctuations lately. Been -2% or +2% at times. Kinda unpleasant. Takes getting used to, I figure. Like being punched in the gut. Eventually you like it.
You know, I wondered if adding that second sentence would be a mistake. :oops:

As I should have known/remembered, TIPS respond to inflation by adjusting the face value, so yeah, they'll fluctuate a bit. (Thanks, Investopedia!)
by Scott S
Tue Mar 22, 2022 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!
Replies: 2297
Views: 258120

Re: Bonds in free fall

Thanks for the links. This makes no logical sense, but there's just something worse about having bonds fall 5% than stocks fall 10%. It's purely psychological, of course. I have bonds to make my portfolio safer...so to have the safer asset drop like this just doesn't feel great. Like I already know I'm taking a hit in performance by having bonds, and then to have it drop -- it's like a double betrayal. I did look into TIP -- I suppose I would be happier if I'd had it instead of BND since around 2014 (that drop in 2013 is hideous!): But then I read this: https://www.morningstar.com/articles/801922/20-years-in-have-tips-delivered Not cool, TIP, not cool at all...are you sure you're a bond? Perhaps you (and a lot of other people in this threa...
by Scott S
Tue Mar 22, 2022 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How often have you switched your “type” of Bond holdings over the years?
Replies: 75
Views: 6649

Re: How often have you switched your “type” of Bond holdings over the years?

Like many Bogleheads, I originally started out in Total Bond Market. Since coming to this forum and reading more, I came to prefer TIPS and Long-Term Treasuries for (hopefully) better diversification, so those are what I have in my personal Vanguard account. In our other accounts (401ks, 529, etc), we have Target-Date funds to keep things easier to manage, but I'm sanguine about the TBM in those. :beer
by Scott S
Tue Mar 22, 2022 12:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: bond funds
Replies: 30
Views: 2573

Re: bond funds

superbobbyg wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 10:09 amYour response is a "no response".
That was pretty rude. Your original question was not clear at all; you asked for "thoughts?" and you got them.

As for me, I've seen no reason to deviate from my plans on bonds. Does that count as a "no response" as well?
by Scott S
Tue Mar 22, 2022 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!
Replies: 2297
Views: 258120

Re: Bonds in free fall

The yield on the 30-year Treasury has soared above my mortgage rate! :mrgreen:
by Scott S
Mon Mar 21, 2022 11:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How difficult is it to get a job in Tech if you are "older"?
Replies: 405
Views: 38679

Re: How difficult is it to get a job in Tech if you are "older"?

maulermark wrote: Fri Feb 11, 2022 12:58 pmI'm just stuck in limbo as I do not want to really change jobs/companies, but I'm so bored as my time passes until I can retire at the end of the year.
Do you have hobbies/activities/socialization outside of work? Now would be a good time to ramp them up, not just so you have something to retire to, but to help keep you stimulated in the meantime.

The thought of shaking up one's employment so close to the goal makes me anxious! I'd just stick it out in your current job for another year or so.
by Scott S
Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Intriguing idea: "stable" portfolio for Emergency Fund
Replies: 24
Views: 3823

Re: Intriguing idea: "stable" portfolio for Emergency Fund

Not a new idea. vineviz posted a similar (and simpler) idea almost two years ago to the day, and I doubt he was the first to think of it: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=309472 If the desire to make one's emergency fund "perform" better isn't driven by inflation concerns, it's usually by FOMO. Unless one's "emergency fund" is infinitely large, their main portfolio will have to become their emergency fund if the EF gets depleted by a severe or drawn-out emergency. In light of that, it makes more sense (to me) to consider it all one big pile of money, and apply one's target asset allocation holistically. If one had been considering their EF as a separate "bucket" then this will call for increasin...
by Scott S
Sat Mar 19, 2022 7:05 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: how can I improve portfolio strategy for an aggressive growth ?? [Mexico ex-pat in US]
Replies: 37
Views: 4215

Re: how can I improve portfolio strategy for an aggressive growth ??

If you're planning on retiring at... [counts on fingers]... 70, then you don't need particularly "aggressive growth", you just need to make sure that you're saving plenty of your income. Good on you for thinking about this relatively early in life!

Unfortunately, $200k may not buy much house in 10 years, unless you're looking in a fairly low-cost area, so my admonition to "save plenty" goes double. Be frugal and cut expenses wherever you can to build that fund!