Search found 1656 matches

by Scott S
Sun Feb 28, 2021 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on 5% SWR
Replies: 83
Views: 4551

Re: Thoughts on 5% SWR

5% would be somewhat risky for the typical 60/40 stock/bond portfolio used in the various SWR studies. You can easily find stretches of time when 5% withdrawals would exhaust the portfolio before 30 years passed. But, diversifying the portfolio beyond those two asset classes can make it a lot more s...
by Scott S
Sat Feb 27, 2021 1:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We are NOT in a bubble
Replies: 161
Views: 20457

Re: We are NOT in a bubble

My definition of a ballast is the 10 year treasury at 3 percent. The reason Bitcoin is so relevent is because it is going to take 119 years to mine the remaining Bitcoin supply. I was shocked when I read that number. 25 years ago we thought word processors were amazing yet we can't solve a bunch of...
by Scott S
Fri Feb 26, 2021 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prepaying Mortgage Aggressively (Ramsey approach) vs. Investing
Replies: 134
Views: 9884

Re: Prepaying Mortgage Aggressively (Ramsey approach) vs. Investing

RagingBullMarket wrote: Fri Feb 26, 2021 4:02 pmI ran the numbers on a 3.0% 15 year mortgage with 4,000 in fees.
With this scenario it doesn't make sense for me to refinance, says the calculator.
Seems like you should be able to do better than 3.0%, too. Maybe rates are shooting up faster than I thought...
by Scott S
Fri Feb 26, 2021 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 583
Views: 43169

Re: Bonds in free fall

Scott S wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 5:23 pm
JimmyJammy wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 2:11 pmToday I learned you have to get your bids in for a Treasury auction by 11/11:30am. Oops!
Don't kick yourself too hard. You might get an even better yield tomorrow! :moneybag
This post didn't age well. Sorry to jinx you, JimmyJammy! :oops:
by Scott S
Fri Feb 26, 2021 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car suggestion for 70+ year-old mom
Replies: 106
Views: 4976

Re: Car suggestion for 70+ year-old mom

Outbacks are made in Lafayette, Indiana if that helps... :sharebeer
by Scott S
Fri Feb 26, 2021 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Short-ish Term Investing
Replies: 3
Views: 289

Re: Short-ish Term Investing

This way, when it come time to make a major purchase (new car, major house renovation, whatever) I will have access to a pool of funds that I can access without penalties or refinancing fees. Since I don't have a specific purchase or date when I would need this money, I don't want to hold this mone...
by Scott S
Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ARK investment
Replies: 189
Views: 16882

Re: ARK investment

It does seem to balance out some holes in simply buying the S&P500. By holding an S&P 500 fund, you are overweight into a handful of very large cap tech stocks that comprise a lot of the index and drive the value of the index. Is that really that diversified? Sure, yeah it's pretty diversif...
by Scott S
Fri Feb 26, 2021 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 583
Views: 43169

Re: Bonds in free fall

Bonds definitely not free-falling today.
by Scott S
Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Senior citizens can lose everything [to professional guardians via court rulings]
Replies: 119
Views: 15303

Re: Senior citizens can lose everything [to professional guardians via court rulings]

I know this is an old thread. But for those interested in the professional guardian racket, there is currently a Netflix movie (comedy, crime, thriller) about a professional guardian. The title is I Care a Lot. Trailer: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=D40uHmTSPew Thanks for bumping this thread. We ju...
by Scott S
Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prepaying Mortgage Aggressively (Ramsey approach) vs. Investing
Replies: 134
Views: 9884

Re: Prepaying Mortgage Aggressively (Ramsey approach) vs. Investing

Our mortgage is also 2.5%. We had started to make extra principal payments this year, but if LTT yields keep going up, it'll make more sense to put the extra money into bonds instead. I won't discount the emotional reasons to completely own your house, but peace of mind for us means making the most ...
by Scott S
Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Fed going to do Yield Curve Control?
Replies: 6
Views: 1028

Re: Is the Fed going to do Yield Curve Control?

VartAndelay wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 4:05 pmIs the Fed going to do Yield Curve Control with the current rates situation?
Good question. What actions do you plan to take if they do?
by Scott S
Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Going into business with family
Replies: 108
Views: 5369

Re: Going into business with family

I couldn't "nope" that offer fast enough.
by Scott S
Thu Feb 25, 2021 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 583
Views: 43169

Re: Bonds in free fall

JimmyJammy wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 2:11 pmToday I learned you have to get your bids in for a Treasury auction by 11/11:30am. Oops!
Don't kick yourself too hard. You might get an even better yield tomorrow! :moneybag
by Scott S
Thu Feb 25, 2021 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 583
Views: 43169

Re: Bonds in free fall

The 20-year almost reached a real yield. What a day!
by Scott S
Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Invest in Crypto like a Boglehead?
Replies: 145
Views: 13434

Re: How to Invest in Crypto like a Boglehead?

an_asker wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:56 pm
Impatience wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:46 pm [...]
My quick answer: a few of my mutual funds own TSLA which owns Bitcoins. I'm all set thankyouverymuch!! :sharebeer
Came here to post this. Between Tesla, MicroStrategy, and probably others, I'm already passively invested in bitcoin, whether I want to be or not.
by Scott S
Thu Feb 25, 2021 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 583
Views: 43169

Re: Bonds in free fall

JimmyJammy wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:50 amIsn't there a trading / investing rule to never try to catch a "falling knife"?
I've made some good money catching "falling knives". It's a dumb saying if you ask me.
by Scott S
Thu Feb 25, 2021 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long patterns in bond real rates
Replies: 5
Views: 518

Re: Long patterns in bond real rates

In any case it is an important observation that the last 80 years of rates in the US is one single excursion up to an extreme and back again. I have no idea what this is supposed to tell us about what one should expect. I doubt the expectation would be that there should be an excursion of that natu...
by Scott S
Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In a dip do you buy more bonds? AGG dropped 8%+ in March 2020
Replies: 22
Views: 2410

Re: In a dip do you buy more bonds? AGG dropped 8%+ in March 2020

Last March, buying stocks was the priority for my portfolio. New contributions weren't enough to get my AA back on track, so I was also selling bonds (mostly VAIPX). Obviously, bonds were down a little themselves, but it was still a good move overall. I had not yet adopted rebalancing bands, so it w...
by Scott S
Wed Feb 24, 2021 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The inflation trade
Replies: 88
Views: 6042

Re: The inflation trade

novolog wrote: Wed Feb 24, 2021 7:43 pmWell M2 has gone up at quite a high rate as well... https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2

So much so that the Fed apparently discontinued it as a reporting metric yesterday :twisted:
So they're replacing M2 with two other metrics... that rascally Fed! :mrgreen:
by Scott S
Wed Feb 24, 2021 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The inflation trade
Replies: 88
Views: 6042

Re: The inflation trade

I think printing money and sending out rounds of stimulus checks and not expecting inflation defies logic for most people so they inevitably talk about inflation I'm basically starting to believe what's logical in the world doesn't seem to matter. The more logical the thought nowadays, the more lik...
by Scott S
Wed Feb 24, 2021 2:55 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: What is the deal with "DW"?
Replies: 104
Views: 5070

Re: What is the deal with "DW"?

Do we have equally strong feelings for other abbreviations used commonly here, but less common in other places? TLH? SWR? SS? RSU? CC? PTC? AGI? XIRR? IRMA? NITT? Etc. These are all used in other places, but they aren’t that common; most of my aquaintenamces wouldn’t know any of them. They would th...
by Scott S
Wed Feb 24, 2021 1:50 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: What is the deal with "DW"?
Replies: 104
Views: 5070

Re: What is the deal with "DW"?

greg24 wrote: Wed Feb 24, 2021 1:37 pm Dear Wife
Dear Husband
Dear Son
Dear Daughter

I agree it is a little odd how prevalent this usage is on a forum that doesn't use much slang.
I've seen "D" used to imply another word if the poster wasn't feeling as generous... ;)
by Scott S
Wed Feb 24, 2021 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 583
Views: 43169

Re: Bonds in free fall

Should I just hold my nose and buy TLT today? it's been in a steady downtrend since August but looks a little overdone (especially given all the interest spike/inflation panic). Those are better deals - thanks. But maybe I should just stick to the general BND fund. I think you need to figure out wh...
by Scott S
Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 583
Views: 43169

Re: Bonds in free fall

Wow this may be the steepest yield spike yet if it holds up. People sure are spooked about inflation. I think people had completely written inflation off since it hasn’t appeared in a long time. Glad I own inflation hedges. I feel like I'm a broken record about this, but inflation expectations are ...
by Scott S
Tue Feb 23, 2021 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is too much saving a zero sum game ?
Replies: 72
Views: 7159

Re: Is too much saving a zero sum game ?

We probably don't have to worry about what would happen if everyone decided to live well below their means and save the rest. But I'd like to think it could cause some positive changes even if it did: https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/04 ... me-frugal/
by Scott S
Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 583
Views: 43169

Re: Bonds in free fall

rockstar wrote: Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:54 pm So how does rebalancing work when both bonds and stock are dropping?
Rebalance from something else that isn't dropping, of course. :wink:
by Scott S
Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tweaking/Perfecting IPS vs “Staying the Course”
Replies: 28
Views: 2076

Re: Tweaking/Perfecting IPS vs “Staying the Course”

If we're confessing IPS changes, I have a couple recent ones as well: 1) My former plan had been an (age-10)% in bonds glideslope, sticking with an AA of 50/50 once I'd reached age 60. However, reading the EarlyRetirementNow blog series on safe withdrawal rates showed me how a sustained 75/25 gives ...
by Scott S
Tue Feb 23, 2021 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETFs for inflationary environments
Replies: 11
Views: 899

Re: ETFs for inflationary environments

If you think we're in for 3%+ sustained inflation, take out a big loan right now! I can get a 15-year mortgage at under 2% in my area.
by Scott S
Mon Feb 22, 2021 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to think about bonds
Replies: 22
Views: 1723

Re: How to think about bonds

I think so. Call it market timing, but it just doesn't make sense to hold LTTs with yields around 1%. STTs or ITTs are a maybe. I wish I looked at the yields more carefully 6 months ago. Time to update your figures. 30-year is up to 2.19% today and positive real for the second trading day. :P
by Scott S
Mon Feb 22, 2021 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 583
Views: 43169

Re: Bonds in free fall

TLT just bounced up a little. People starting to buy the dip? 8-)
by Scott S
Mon Feb 22, 2021 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Long Term Treasury - VLGSX vs VUSUX
Replies: 12
Views: 859

Re: Long Term Treasury - VLGSX vs VUSUX

anon_investor wrote: Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:25 pm
Scott S wrote: Sun Feb 21, 2021 10:50 pm Long-term Treasuries are the new diamond-hands play. You're hearing it here first. :mrgreen:
For diamond-hands, wouldn't EE Bonds be better?
Hmm, I'm not an expert on EE Bonds. Are you thinking that EE Bonds might be even harder to hold on to if rates/inflation go up? :wink:
by Scott S
Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The inflation trade
Replies: 88
Views: 6042

Re: The inflation trade

So everyone and their grandmother has opinions on the Fed money printing and inflation targeting being changed and relatively high expected future inflation etc. I was wondering if this forum was doing anything specific with their portfolios. If you're worried about your portfolio, the best thing I...
by Scott S
Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Suggestions for 27yo engineer, ~$1mm windfall, looking to DIY growth
Replies: 21
Views: 4001

Re: Suggestions for 27yo engineer, ~$1mm windfall, looking to DIY growth

I guess it's common to think that the more money you have, the more complicated your investments must be. I would recommend the opposite -- keep it as simple as possible. An extra million dollars in my hands would go into 3 index funds I already own (and pay off my mortgage.) :sharebeer
by Scott S
Sun Feb 21, 2021 10:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Long Term Treasury - VLGSX vs VUSUX
Replies: 12
Views: 859

Re: Long Term Treasury - VLGSX vs VUSUX

Long-term Treasuries are the new diamond-hands play. You're hearing it here first. :mrgreen:
by Scott S
Sun Feb 21, 2021 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is too much saving a zero sum game ?
Replies: 72
Views: 7159

Re: Is too much saving a zero sum game ?

I read somewhere that a lot of the eventual spending from the rich goes into exotic investments like diamonds and art - don’t think that would help the general economy . You just need to use a little more imagination. :) Money spent on diamonds and art lives on in the hands of the dealers. Those de...
by Scott S
Sat Feb 20, 2021 9:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Revealing net worth
Replies: 251
Views: 16200

Re: Revealing net worth

On the flip side, you have to wonder if some of the "Gosh, I'll never be able to retire! How can anyone?" people you encounter are bluffing. ;)
by Scott S
Sat Feb 20, 2021 6:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why do I never see a 50/50 split on this site or other sites?
Replies: 45
Views: 4124

Re: Why do I never see a 50/50 split on this site or other sites?

Does anyone know why there are only AA are in increments of 20? For example, I only see examples of 80/20, 60/40,40/60, and 20/80. I didn't know if there was a reason for this or just a coincidence? If there is a reason for this? If so, please share why? You've only been here a week. :P I've seen p...
by Scott S
Fri Feb 19, 2021 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 583
Views: 43169

Re: Bonds in free fall

Back in black!! Today's Treasury real yield curve actually has a positive value! (30 yr @ .03%) 8-) https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield Now that's the spirit! "Free fall" is so negative, when we could be talking abou...
by Scott S
Fri Feb 19, 2021 4:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pianists - Digital Piano or Keyboard recommendation
Replies: 26
Views: 1989

Re: Pianists - Digital Piano or Keyboard recommendation

Does it have to be new? Good-quality upright pianos can be found really cheap on Craigslist. :beer Be careful about cheap pianos. Someone I know gave away a grand piano and paid part of the cost to move it. I knew that the piano wasn’t perfect so I rejected it. The folks who took it didn’t look it ...
by Scott S
Fri Feb 19, 2021 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 583
Views: 43169

Re: Bonds in free fall

<disregard>
by Scott S
Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 583
Views: 43169

Re: Bonds in free fall

I find it bizarre that people who call themselves bogleheads use terms like free fall, crash, and clobbered to describe bonds. Not to mention all the performance-chasing and recency bias we see on this forum. I can only conclude that successful Boglehead-style investing is hard because it goes agai...
by Scott S
Fri Feb 19, 2021 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Graph comparing 3 bull markets
Replies: 27
Views: 2446

Re: Graph comparing 3 bull markets

cat_guy wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:23 amWhat smart or foolish things can we infer from this?
My takeaway is that the financial sector is so lucrative, that employees can come up with all kinds of bogus stuff and not only not get fired for it, but actually rewarded. Incredible.
by Scott S
Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pianists - Digital Piano or Keyboard recommendation
Replies: 26
Views: 1989

Re: Pianists - Digital Piano or Keyboard recommendation

Does it have to be new?

Good-quality upright pianos can be found really cheap on Craigslist. :beer
by Scott S
Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 583
Views: 43169

Re: Bonds in free fall

It's not beautiful, but it's far from tragic IMHO. Well, it's not tragic to me, else I wouldn't hold LTT. But I recall some people freaking out when Total Bond went down by some modest amount last year. I remember there was a lot of concern about bonds in 2010/2011, so I went to search for "bo...
by Scott S
Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Never saw myself buying gold ...
Replies: 146
Views: 10660

Re: Never saw myself buying gold ...

I've been 25% gold using the permanent portfolio strategy for about 12 years now. I adopted it about 8 years before I retired and am still using it in retirement although I shifted to the golden butterfly which calls for only 20%. But I'm still closer to 25% right now due to growth and not rebalanc...
by Scott S
Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: retirement target fund or individual funds ?
Replies: 32
Views: 2652

Re: retirement target fund or individual funds ?

Target Retirement funds aren't just for newbies who don't know what they're doing .... part of me that wishes all of my investment career had just been in TR funds, to be frank! Less temptation to tweak things constantly. +1 (same) and as far a very slightly higher expense fees (like 0.10); one mis...
by Scott S
Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: retirement target fund or individual funds ?
Replies: 32
Views: 2652

Re: retirement target fund or individual funds ?

Target Retirement funds aren't just for newbies who don't know what they're doing. More and more of our money (my 401k, her Roth, the 529) has been going into TR funds so we don't have to do anything besides contribute to them. There's a part of me that wishes all of my investment career had just be...
by Scott S
Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rethinking bond allocation, would appreciate feedback
Replies: 49
Views: 2583

Re: Rethinking bond allocation, would appreciate feedback

You're right, diamond hands don't apply for holding SPX, certainly not during a bull market. I can hold 100/0 during downturns though, whatever the hands they're called. How many recessions have you invested through so far? I'd say 2, 2008 GFC and 2020. I left passive investing untouched on both oc...
by Scott S
Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rethinking bond allocation, would appreciate feedback
Replies: 49
Views: 2583

Re: Rethinking bond allocation, would appreciate feedback

You're right, diamond hands don't apply for holding SPX, certainly not during a bull market. I can hold 100/0 during downturns though, whatever the hands they're called. "Diamond hands" mean you hold on to your investment when it's difficult, not when it's easy. How many recessions have y...
by Scott S
Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 583
Views: 43169

Re: Bonds in free fall

It's February still, is it not? We barely got out in the year and we have threads like this, so much for long term outlook :oops: Anyway, I peeked, I have bonds, last year they returned close to 14% and the portfolio somewhat close to 19%. This year bond portion is down -2% and the portfolio is up ...