Bogleheads.org

hilink73

In terms of backtesting, it seems quarterly rebalancing outperformed monthly or semi-annually or annually rebalancing. Can someone test bi-monthly and every 4 months rebalancing and see how they compare to quarterly rebalancing? I did a bunch of backtesting in this thread . The conclusion on quarte...

hilink73

Does anyone know how to buy these etfs(UPRO/TMF/GLD/TQQQ) or replicate them as close as possible for someone outside US? The brokers arent allowing if you are a retail investor. This probably depends on where outside of the US you are. Living in Switzerland, I do not have any problems buying those ...

hilink73

I have similar criticisms with hedgefundie's strategy itself. Is it a valid strategy? Yes, there is a certain set of assumptions that result in 55/45 being the optimal solution. I would attribute that to sheer luck. If you aren't aware what those assumptions are, it's very unlikely this is the righ...

hilink73

Stop playing with inverse volatility, adaptive allocation, whatever, etc. You will get burned. I'm saying this as someone who played around with inverse volatility (SPY/IEF, 8%). It looked GREAT in backtests. So I started doing it around the start of 2018. Two years later, my CAGR is half as buy an...

hilink73

Some great posts! I've already read about going through your emails and deciding if it's a 2 min thing, do it, put it on a to do list, delegate it, delete it, etc. What I've found nowhere are criteria on which to actually decide what to do, which I sometimes struggle with. E. g. do I really have to...

hilink73

I let them stay. Don't get me started on people that send an email cc themselves. Now you have dupes. What about people who mark every message as urgent and request return receipts? Out of principle, I never acknowledge a return receipt. What for? Also, most people do not understand email as a medi...

hilink73

Some great posts! I've already read about going through your emails and deciding if it's a 2 min thing, do it, put it on a to do list, delegate it, delete it, etc. What I've found nowhere are criteria on which to actually decide what to do, which I sometimes struggle with. E. g. do I really have to ...

hilink73

Anyone else having issue with IB right now? I check at phone my stock balance is all gone, check via website, also gone In their website there's this maintanance, so i'm trying to calm down Due to scheduled system maintenance, clients will be unable to connect through our web, mobile, and TWS platf...

hilink73

Hello guys, I am new on this forum however I have read a significant portion of it. I like the HFEA strategy with 55/45 UPRO TMF. The AAA method of rebalancing looks promising however I haven't had full grasp of it yet. I prefer to rebalance quarterly due to lesser number of transactions required. ...

hilink73

Regarding breaches: do not get fooled by emails like this: Hi, I know one of your passwords is: blablah Your computer was infected with my private malware, your browser wasn't updated / patched, in such case it's enough to just visit some website where my iframe is placed to get automatically infect...

hilink73

One complicated password for all is fine. But eventually, web sites require you to change passwords anyway. No, definitely not. Never use the same password. Another nice one from the trenches: password enumeration and counting You have a password for a certain account like Summer2020 ? Good chance ...

hilink73

bogivan wrote: ↑Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:28 pm [
Step 2: Either memorize or write down the list of words and make copies (backups) in safe locations

[...]

Better use something sturdy, non inflammable to save those words: https://cryptosteel.com/

hilink73

How quick things change.

Asset allocation for target volatility 25% at end of last month was 80% UPRO / 20% TMF.
Today it is 43% UPRO and 57% TMF according to PV.

-11% in September. I'm feeling lucky.

hilink73

So....the menfolk have a very active power lifting thread going on, but I did not see any participation from women. Surely there are some women here who lift weights! Tell us about it. :happy I'm particularly interested in older women (say over 60) who are lifting weights, but am also interested in...

hilink73

Can you comment on why going to the extreme reverse ratio is a bad idea? My view is that one should always have an asset allocation that is mean-variance optimal and investors should have some consistent risk preferences. Suppose that under normal conditions 60/40 is mv optimal. Here is an image of...

hilink73

statefan03 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 1:43 pm No activity on this thread today? TQQQ is down %15. Curious how all you guys are doing today.

Don't have TQQQ. Have UPRO.

hilink73

A lot of very negative comments here.

hilink73

I would like to officially cast a new warning into the wind... "If you continue investing in Total Stock, you will endure much pain, and shed many tears, watching QQQ outperform." You have now been warned. No, you're wrong. If you continue investing in plain boring stock market mutual fun...

hilink73

I have explored the highly onerous and limited options for US expats in Germany for investing in retirement accounts like a Rürup, which would be mostly tax deductible in Germany. So far I've received offers from companies here that charge either 1.5% or 2% fees, which I find a bit nuts. I'm essent...

hilink73

I would like to officially cast a new warning into the wind... "If you continue investing in Total Stock, you will endure much pain, and shed many tears, watching QQQ outperform." You have now been warned. No, you're wrong. If you continue investing in plain boring stock market mutual fun...

hilink73

If you want to have as little arbitrary assumptions as possible, throwing away target volatility and HFEA is probably the first thing you should do. There are certain assumptions that lead to target volatility, those assumptions are false (see above). There are certain assumptions that lead to a st...

hilink73

If you want to have as little arbitrary assumptions as possible, throwing away target volatility and HFEA is probably the first thing you should do. There are certain assumptions that lead to target volatility, those assumptions are false (see above). There are certain assumptions that lead to a st...

hilink73

Thereum wrote: ↑Tue Aug 04, 2020 11:51 am It's still a flawed strategy due to the volatility decay of leveraged ETFs.

We have discussed volatility decay on numerous pages here and finally concluded that it isn't so much of an issue, really.
At least, it goes both ways.

hilink73

[...] Roll the dice. [...] Relevant reading material: https://www.amazon.com/-/de/Dice-Man-Luke-Rhinehart/dp/0879518642/ref=sr_1_1?__mk_de_DE=%C3%85M%C3%85%C5%BD%C3%95%C3%91&crid=D1TVXBNK04CU&dchild=1&keywords=dice+man+rhinehart&qid=1596480376&sprefix=dice+man%2Caps%2C259&sr...

hilink73

Can I have some of those 10x stomping HF danyboy ETNs somewhere?

hilink73

This sounds more and more like wallstreetbets.
Maybe that's because I do not understand a thing about that stuff.

hilink73

wackerdr wrote: ↑Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:19 pm
hilink73 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:12 pm
wackerdr wrote: ↑Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:45 pm I am long on TQQQ/TMF in 70:30 since June in my IRA . It has done really well with about 35% increase in portfolio size ,
June which year?
This year.

hilink73

wackerdr wrote: ↑Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:45 pm I am long on TQQQ/TMF in 70:30 since June in my IRA . It has done really well with about 35% increase in portfolio size ,

June which year?

hilink73

Did you understood how to implement the adaptive allocation ? No. I've said some time ago that it feels quite counter-intuitive to sometimes sell with losses using this strategy. In the original strategy, there's classical rebalancing, thus selling high, buying low, which might be easier to follow....

hilink73

End of July rebalancing done yesterday for my target volatility 25% strategy (signal from Portfoliovisualiser). Feb UPRO 42% / TMF 58% Perf.: -9.3% Mar UPRO 9% / TMF 91% Perf.: -10.9% Apr UPRO 21% / TMF 79% Perf.: 6.7% May UPRO 37% / TMF 63% Perf.: -3.0% June UPRO 31% / TMF 69% Perf.: 0.3% July UPR...

hilink73

End of July rebalancing done yesterday for my target volatility 25% strategy (signal from Portfoliovisualiser). Feb UPRO 42% / TMF 58% Perf.: -9.3% Mar UPRO 9% / TMF 91% Perf.: -10.9% Apr UPRO 21% / TMF 79% Perf.: 6.7% May UPRO 37% / TMF 63% Perf.: -3.0% June UPRO 31% / TMF 69% Perf.: 0.3% July UPRO...

hilink73

Shorting leveraged inverse ETFs gives much better results than going long leveraged ETFs. (E.g. shorting SQQQ is better than going long TQQQ; shorting SPXU is better than going long UPRO.) In fact, you can just do a pairs trade with SQQQ/SPXU and long term treasuries and receive higher risk-adjuste...

hilink73

firebirdparts wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:18 pm I think the longer a thread gets, the higher the percentage of new posts asking what the thread is about. Which in this thread is like 100% now.

Probably some kind of Internet law.

End of month rebalancing on Friday.
Stay tuned.

hilink73

There is discussion about someone putting a summary/guide together, but there is some hesitance to do so given the risky nature of the investment. Who is supposed to do the actual work? My proposal to all those posters who want to have it the easy way: what about banding together and actually compi...

hilink73

There is discussion about someone putting a summary/guide together, but there is some hesitance to do so given the risky nature of the investment. Who is supposed to do the actual work? My proposal to all those posters who want to have it the easy way: what about banding together and actually compi...

hilink73

There is discussion about someone putting a summary/guide together, but there is some hesitance to do so given the risky nature of the investment. Who is supposed to do the actual work? My proposal to all those posters who want to have it the easy way: what about banding together and actually compi...

hilink73

I'm not sure if "concise guide" is the right term, but I would be very interested in a "Cliff's Notes" of the total discussion. One poster in this thread estimated it would take him a dozen hours to read through all of the discussion. I think it would take me several times that....

hilink73

Given that Hedgefundie has left the forum and the absurd amount of replies to read through, has anyone made a summary of the discussion as well as an actionable road-map for re-balancing and other details to put this plan into action for new readers? This question has been asked and answered in thi...

hilink73

I'm european.... Being "European" does not help at all discussing tax related events as the tax situation is different in most European countries. For example, in Switzerland, selling stocks (as a private investor) does not generate a "taxable event", read: there are no capital ...

hilink73

Testing a test

hilink73

Hi everyone I'm an european investitor and I have been around here for a while,love all you americans,always excellent stuff I have a question for all of you guys. My broker has available upro,tmf and also upro qqq The only problem is that all those etfs have dividend distribution and when i get th...

hilink73

2. Self driving is still driving assist. My nephew who works at a big consulting firm did a serious analysis comparing all companies out there. Tesla is nowhere near the top, nowhere near autonomous. (likely close level 3) Just curious and not to deep into this topic. I've read not too long ago (ma...

hilink73

Some rebalancing questions for those doing the adventure in a Roth IRA... - I've been running it in a very small Roth for a couple months and now my split is 65% equities 35% TMF. I started in mid-April with 55/45 UPRO/TMF, then switched to half UPRO half TQQQ on the equities side in mid-May. To da...

hilink73

Haven't update my numbers in a while. Still doing target volatility 25% strategy using PV. Allocation is per end of month for the next month (end of month rebalancing). Performance is per end of month. Feb UPRO 42% / TMF 58% Perf.: -9.3% Mar UPRO 9% / TMF 91% Perf.: -10.9% Apr UPRO 21% / TMF 79% Pe...

hilink73

Haven't update my numbers in a while. Still doing target volatility 25% strategy using PV. Allocation is per end of month for the next month (end of month rebalancing). Performance is per end of month. Feb UPRO 42% / TMF 58% Perf.: -9.3% Mar UPRO 9% / TMF 91% Perf.: -10.9% Apr UPRO 21% / TMF 79% Per...

hilink73

TechFI wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:34 am Where are people buying UPRO/TMF? I tried purchasing some in my Roth IRA (Vanguard), and it would not allow me to buy leveraged products?!

Interactive Brokers

hilink73

Does anyone have any recommendations for software/websites to help track this when it's used within a larger portfolio that has other assets (or even more of the same assets)? Ideally free, but I'd be willing to pay a bit if it works really well. I'd like to see daily returns, charts of returns ove...

hilink73

I’m curious how long the typical BH owns/wears a nice dress shirt before retiring it? I have about 15 nice shirts I wear in a rotation, and half of them have small holes developing under the left elbow :? . Seems a shame to throw them out so I just roll up my sleeves such that hole is obscured. I u...

hilink73

End of April rebalancing done yesterday for my target volatility 25% strategy using PV.

Feb UPRO 42% / TMF 58% Perf.: -9.3%
Mar UPRO 9% / TMF 91% Perf.: -10.9%
Apr UPRO 21% / TMF 79% Perf.: 6.7%

Let's see what May brings.

hilink73

With all the focus on interest rates, there’s a great book on this strategy called “balanced asset allocation”. It gives an excellent overview on how we should think about stocks/bonds and commodities. Basically, the starting yield of LTTs is insignificant. The risk associated with a low yield is a...

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