Search found 221 matches

by phantom0308
Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware the Hype on Gold"
Replies: 170
Views: 12246

Re: "Beware the Hype on Gold"

Amy C. Arnott has not looked back over a very long period in history. My mentor Ray Dalio teaches that the long debt cycle lasts for about 70-100 years. We are currently at the end of such a cycle; therefore the situation is probably closest to the 1930's. When the debt burden is very high, and you...
by phantom0308
Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Talk me out of or into this (purchasing a new vehicle).
Replies: 51
Views: 3447

Re: Talk me out of or into this (purchasing a new vehicle).

I would wait to make this decision until at least the end up the month. 600$/week for 20 million high propensity spenders is about to leave the economy starting next week and I'd be uncomfortable making any large purchases/draining my emergency fund until I knew that something was going to be done t...
by phantom0308
Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Hard to stay the course...
Replies: 38
Views: 4810

Re: Hard to stay the course...

Who says rates will go up? The market doesn’t seem to think they will and the experience of every other developed nation shows secular stagnation is difficult to break out of without massive fiscal stimulus. Look at Japan and Europe that have seen zero to negative rates for years to decades. Why are...
by phantom0308
Mon May 25, 2020 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Company deferred our 401k Match until 2021
Replies: 9
Views: 650

Re: Company deferred our 401k Match until 2021

My company has a 20% pay deferral that’s similar to this that will be paid prior to Mar 2021. I would make sure you understand in detail the text of their change if it’s available. In my case the pay deferred is paid back with interest. That interest is roughly equal to the corporate bond rate. By u...
by phantom0308
Mon May 25, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: How to invest $1.2M for the next 10-15 years [Switzerland]
Replies: 26
Views: 2611

Re: How to invest $1.2M for the next 10-15 years

You’re must be somewhat skilled in running businesses to successfully start and sell part of a business. One aspect that shouldn’t be forgotten is investment in human capital and future businesses. I’m not sure what your situation is if you’ve only sold part of one of your businesses or all of your ...
by phantom0308
Sat May 23, 2020 7:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 376
Views: 32452

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

What specific area of IT do you work in? Or is that information too personal? Just curious, I’ve been a software dev and architect and can appreciate the amount of time required to stay up to date, especially in fields like deep learning where new papers are coming out weekly with important developm...
by phantom0308
Sun May 17, 2020 3:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Saving for a home with student loans
Replies: 12
Views: 812

Re: Saving for a home with student loans

Buy rent ratio in most parts of California makes it kind of hard to justify buying with a 4-6% loan especially given the economy now IMO. Is it possible to rent a single family home in the short term? I’d expect that if home prices were to drop because of the economy it would take a couple years or ...
by phantom0308
Sun May 17, 2020 3:01 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: The Mighty USD
Replies: 58
Views: 4533

Re: The Mighty USD

I am predicting that many people will predict hyperinflation like the last recession and then be disappointed with decades of secular stagnation but never admit their mistakes.
by phantom0308
Sun May 17, 2020 2:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 521
Views: 21261

Re: What does Market know, that we did not know?

Krugman had a good thread last week noting that the market isn’t pricing in a V shaped recovery as many think. If the market were actually expecting a swift recovery then the interest rates would’ve risen, but they are flat.people are in equities because everything is terrible and long term, compani...
by phantom0308
Wed May 13, 2020 1:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Peloton Treadmill: Anyone here own one..,,
Replies: 59
Views: 5013

Re: Peloton Treadmill: Anyone here own one..,,

My wife wants one for her birthday. Her fitness classes at her gym are closed and she may not return when opens. Very expensive ($4,200) but we can afford it. She wants the virtual fitness classes like offered with Nordic Track or Peloton. Yes, I know Peloton is not delivering currently with the co...
by phantom0308
Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: difference between SLV, silver and silver coin
Replies: 11
Views: 703

Re: difference between SLV, silver and silver coin

Another thing to keep in mind is that selling physical silver is a PITA. If you ever stop being worried about the state of the world you’ll have a lot of physical silver that will be hard to get rid of. I was similarly worried when I started investing post (~2012). I now have a silver that’s since l...
by phantom0308
Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Collapse in Global Inflation Expectations
Replies: 106
Views: 6644

Re: The Collapse in Global Inflation Expectations

I disagreed. We are heading towards hyperinflation after the short-term deflation. Seriously, what changes to your investment portfolio have you been making in light of your expectations for the hyperinflation to come? Or are you just trolling this thread? SimpleGift, I am buying Gold and Silver as...
by phantom0308
Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Japan like "lost decades" possible in US and world stock market?
Replies: 82
Views: 8407

Re: Are Japan like "lost decades" possible in US and world stock market?

FYI.....The USA fertility rate (births per woman) is 1.8 at the most recent calculation; this is below replacement rate (need about 2.1). We're still above replacement rate with immigration. Unless, of course, we completely shut that off. Immigration is about to be shut off. https://www.theguardian...
by phantom0308
Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Japan like "lost decades" possible in US and world stock market?
Replies: 82
Views: 8407

Re: Are Japan like "lost decades" possible in US and world stock market?

FYI.....The USA fertility rate (births per woman) is 1.8 at the most recent calculation; this is below replacement rate (need about 2.1). We're still above replacement rate with immigration. Unless, of course, we completely shut that off. Immigration is about to be shut off. https://www.theguardian...
by phantom0308
Mon Apr 13, 2020 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What in the world is propping up this market?
Replies: 206
Views: 20903

Re: What in the world is propping up this market?

Investors like metrics, less uncertainty. An alliance of governors said they're going to use testing metrics to decide when to reopen the economy. I'm pretty pessimistic and even I'm a little less concerned about reopening the economy without a plan and seeing a second wave.
by phantom0308
Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What will you do first, once COVID pandemic is over?
Replies: 271
Views: 17648

Re: What will you do first, once COVID pandemic is over?

Unix end of time is coming in 2038. There will always be big scary problems to solve. All 32 bit computers running UNIX/Linux type OSs typically store their time as number of seconds since Jan1, 1970. In 2038, all of these systems will roll over and act like it’s early 1900. Many of those systems a...
by phantom0308
Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a theoretical chart constructed for a 60/40 AA for the past 2000 years?
Replies: 30
Views: 2186

Re: Is there a theoretical chart constructed for a 60/40 AA for the past 2000 years?

It’s hard to imagine how that’d work in the middle ages in Europe. My understanding is that taking interest was not allowed by the church and was called usury. Hard to get bond returns like this, though I have heard of Sharia compliant investments that skirt around a similar set of Islamic laws.
by phantom0308
Sat Apr 11, 2020 3:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 32765

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

initially the model predicted 2.5 million deaths, now 60k, and it might go lower This is misleading. The initial numbers were 100-240k. The number you cited is without any intervention. The model on IHME assumes social distancing until June 1st and a few other things which can be found on their web...
by phantom0308
Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What will you do first, once COVID pandemic is over?
Replies: 271
Views: 17648

Re: What will you do first, once COVID pandemic is over?

Immediately start preparing for Covid 2.0 Don’t forget Y3K. It’s coming. Unix end of time is coming in 2038. There will always be big scary problems to solve. All 32 bit computers running UNIX/Linux type OSs typically store their time as number of seconds since Jan1, 1970. In 2038, all of these sys...
by phantom0308
Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Executive pay cut request: How to respond?
Replies: 130
Views: 13246

Re: Executive pay cut request: How to respond?

Something I've never understood is, why do companies ever give severance? As a steely eyed capitalist, when times are tough and people need to get laid off, where do the companies suddenly find the money to pay severances? MarketTimer, more to your question, personally I'd be willing to take a 25% ...
by phantom0308
Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4005
Views: 306971

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I almost find it comical that the market is basically shrugging off the now 10M jobs lost in the past two weeks I find it strange too, but this "should be" temporary. Maybe. But that's probably what the average thought is. 10 million will go BACK TO WORK in a month or two, and we still get to keep ...
by phantom0308
Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4005
Views: 306971

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Strange response from the US stock market during the 1918 Spanish Flu. Any ideas why there was such complacency at that time in history? https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUcE_JYWoAAv3U4?format=png&name=small There’s a reason why it’s called the Spanish flu and not the Kansas flu. The epidemic was widely...
by phantom0308
Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 201
Views: 19346

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

some states just issued stay at home orders yesterday I am not sure that is as big an issue as some are making it out to be. My state is one of those that just issued a stay at home order. But all the metro areas already had them for 1.5 + weeks) and that is where the cases are. Many of the other s...
by phantom0308
Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 201
Views: 19346

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

Some of the coming pain is not priced in because we still do not understand the gravity of the coming pain. Best-case scenarios say 100-240k dead in the US alone. Based on the way our government has handled this so far, do you think we're on a trajectory for a best-case scenario? Every time I see D...
by phantom0308
Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 201
Views: 19346

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

Market just reacting to Fauci saying we need to be prepared for 100k - 200k deaths.... that took many by surprise I imagine. It sounds terrible but it is the reality of the situation and a dose of reality was needed. I’m wondering how many people are also expecting this. These numbers were for a be...
by phantom0308
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investments you wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole
Replies: 110
Views: 9392

Re: Investments you wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole

Poles shorter than 6 ft. Keep your distance!
by phantom0308
Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coronavirus Movie Suggestions
Replies: 104
Views: 7176

Re: Coronavirus Movie Suggestions

Just finished watching Contagion. I liked it.
by phantom0308
Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coronavirus Movie Suggestions
Replies: 104
Views: 7176

Re: Coronavirus Movie Suggestions

Train to Busan (netflix). First Korean Zombie movie. Note, a possible reason South Korea appears to have been relatively well-prepared is that they've been fearing germ warfare from N. Korea for decades. Obviously, this is not from N. Korea, but the South clearly had a pandemic response infrastruct...
by phantom0308
Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:50 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: How Is Your Job Being Impacted By The Current Crisis?
Replies: 505
Views: 53358

Re: How Is Your Job Being Impacted By The Current Crisis?

Auto here.
Plants shut down.
Company announced all salaried workers are having 20% of their wages deferred until Q4 at the earliest.
Some workers who need to be on-site are receiving 75% to be furloughed (not receiving deferred wages).
by phantom0308
Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?
Replies: 86
Views: 8784

Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

If the world is just then the Dow will succumb to COVID-19 and we can all use sensible indices like S&P500 or Russell 2000.
by phantom0308
Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 64308

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

It’s impossible to know and depends on how long this lasts. GM just announced it was deferring 20% of salaries until the end of the year to maintain cash flow. If it lasts more than 6 months then big companies outside of the obviously affected industries getting assistance are going to start getting...
by phantom0308
Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:13 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

For those who might feel like the world is ending, I'm just going to post this right here... https://i.imgur.com/e4QJ7T0l.jpg You might also read an article published today in The New England Journal of Medicine titled: “Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted.” The article considers the impact of the ...
by phantom0308
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Replies: 302
Views: 14748

Re: Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?

Summer heat and humidity may slow down the virus. An effective vaccine and treatments may arrive sooner than expected. Or maybe not, but there are definitely risks for sitting out the next 9 months. Summer heat like Australian and Indian summer doesn’t seem to be helping much. I guess it’s hard to ...
by phantom0308
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 64308

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

I'm not sure how we could have already hit the bottom when the pandemic is just really getting started in several of the biggest economies on the planet. The market is supposed to reflect what it expects to happen and include bad things happening in the future. The price goes down not when bad thin...
by phantom0308
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?
Replies: 1661
Views: 138573

Re: Masks (medical or N95) availability

Why isn't the market flooded with masks already given the high demand? Incredibly high demand from hospitals and failure to utilize Defense Production Act to increase manufacturing capacity. phantom0308, +1,000. The need is around 3+ million per day. The top 2 manufacturers are producing 2 million ...
by phantom0308
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Work From Home] - What does your company pay for?
Replies: 83
Views: 4632

Re: [Work From Home] - What does your company pay for?

I don’t understand why WFH would cause you to have to charge your phone more often. Are you incapable of plugging the phone in at your desk when you aren’t using it?
by phantom0308
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?
Replies: 1661
Views: 138573

Re: Masks (medical or N95) availability

InvestingGeek wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:25 pm
Why isn't the market flooded with masks already given the high demand?
Incredibly high demand from hospitals and failure to utilize Defense Production Act to increase manufacturing capacity.
by phantom0308
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is living near power lines ok or bad?
Replies: 60
Views: 3261

Re: Is living near power lines ok or bad?

Is there known and credible evidence which says health risks increase for a family living close to power lines....and how close? Or is it more of an unsubstantiated point of view that should be ignored when shopping for the ideal new home? Maybe it’s just a small sample size but it does appear to m...
by phantom0308
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 9186

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

Also population density in Italy is 4x as high as in the US, and the median age is 10 years higher. I'm guessing things in the US will be milder than Italy. ...there is a tendency for multiple generation to live in the same home, higher percentage of smokers. I'm not going to resolutely state thing...
by phantom0308
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Young investors, how do you feel about your 1st market crash?
Replies: 132
Views: 9143

Re: Young investors, how do you feel about your 1st market crash?

Whenever bad things happen like layoffs at work or a steep market decline I end up reading news and forums about how the end is nigh but I never end up acting on any of it. I think I’ve burned boglehead principles into my mind and can’t imagine ever breaking this. It’s still early days and my job ha...
by phantom0308
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people keep saying you have to be right twice?
Replies: 213
Views: 7859

Re: Why do people keep saying you have to be right twice?

A trivial example of how being right once can work is that you sell before the market drops (being right once), then you place a limit order to buy if it ever reaches the original price. In that way you’re guaranteed to never lose more than the trade price. Given the amount of intraday volatility th...
by phantom0308
Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...
Replies: 107
Views: 10159

Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

I mean we survived and prospered through the black death. We'll pull out of this too. I think prospered is a bit of a stretch for the Black Death. That was well before the industrial revolution when growth was usually below 1%. I think the only reason people were wealthier after the Black Death was...
by phantom0308
Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:20 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: How Is Your Job Being Impacted By The Current Crisis?
Replies: 505
Views: 53358

Re: How Is Your Job Being Impacted By The Current Crisis?

Software development, automotive. Working from home since Monday. I feel like I’m similarly productive now with fewer meetings and distractions. I’m guessing the industry will be negatively affected. If my project is cut I’ll be negatively affected but otherwise I have more work than I can handle fo...
by phantom0308
Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?
Replies: 1661
Views: 138573

Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Potential breakthrough in the progress for a vaccine. Possibly some good news in an otherwise mostly dire forecast lately. https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101 The vaccine could “achieve safety approval in 90 days,” Even assu...
by phantom0308
Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are you in the mood to buy anything?
Replies: 62
Views: 5119

Re: Are you in the mood to buy anything?

Wife was telling me about this fridge she was thinking about that on sale. But with all the terrible news I told her I'm in no mood to buy anything. So we're just staying put. I'm not in a mood to buy anything, but we've been talking about how to "divide" our house if some people were sick and othe...
by phantom0308
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are you in the mood to buy anything?
Replies: 62
Views: 5119

Re: Are you in the mood to buy anything?

Wife was telling me about this fridge she was thinking about that on sale. But with all the terrible news I told her I'm in no mood to buy anything. So we're just staying put. I'm not in a mood to buy anything, but we've been talking about how to "divide" our house if some people were sick and othe...
by phantom0308
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: All in VTSAX, probably not the smartest move I've made, seeking advice
Replies: 57
Views: 5110

Re: All in VTSAX, probably not the smartest move I've made, seeking advice

In x years the price of stocks a couple months ago will seem cheap just like 2007 stocks seem cheap today. The people who bailed out on the way down never made their money back and then some. The people who stuck it through have made a lot. The better question is do you think that this shock will ha...
by phantom0308
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge fund performance in high volatility market
Replies: 0
Views: 127

Hedge fund performance in high volatility market

I’ve read in the past that hedge funds have underperformed the overall market since the last recession or at least the mid 2010s due to historically low volatility. It seems like that is over. If hedge funds have any value, one would expect them to overperform now. Is there any easy way to see how h...
by phantom0308
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 20% unemployment?
Replies: 88
Views: 6760

Re: 20% unemployment?

20% unemployment is an insane guesstimate. If unemployment went up something like 100% from where it is now, we'd be looking at like 7.2%. And I honestly think even something like that would be incredibly short term. Even 10% seems high to me. If someone really believes that a 20% unemployment is a...
by phantom0308
Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the F.I.R.E. movement survive?
Replies: 98
Views: 7323

Re: Will the F.I.R.E. movement survive?

Many of the people who FIRE is popular with also just make a lot of money but don’t want to spend more than an average person. A savings rate of 50% isn’t that difficult when you’re making significantly more than the average household. The blogs just make those people feel good about themselves for ...