Search found 318 matches

by bogglizer
Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Funny Money [How do you invest your "play money"?]
Replies: 28
Views: 1631

Re: Funny Money [How do you invest your "play money"?]

siriusblack wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:27 pm
I have relatives who genuinely believe that investing is similar to gambling.
The sign of the expected return is different. Otherwise, there are a lot of similarities.
by bogglizer
Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Funny Money [How do you invest your "play money"?]
Replies: 28
Views: 1631

Re: Funny Money [How do you invest your "play money"?]

I did option trading for a while, with a few thousand dollars. Lost most of it in the dot-com crash. I don't think stable distribution option costing was a thing back then. Long Term Capital Management and I learned this together.
by bogglizer
Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Health Insurance In Retirement
Replies: 32
Views: 3067

Re: Health Insurance In Retirement

I am not nearly as wealthy as most Bogleheads (judging by what I see written on this forum), so the ACA works for people like me. Successful people like to let everyone know, even if in subtle ways. I am sure that there are plenty of quiet Bogleheads lurking about with more modest portfolios and in...
by bogglizer
Mon Feb 03, 2020 8:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Health Insurance In Retirement
Replies: 32
Views: 3067

Re: Health Insurance In Retirement

Isn't the game to live off of taxable until Medicare starts, so that you have no income and get ACA cheap? (Genuinely asking. I don't actually know.) That works if you don't have a pension, and if your earnings from your taxable account aren't very high, and if you aren't single. Why not single?
by bogglizer
Mon Feb 03, 2020 8:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Health Insurance In Retirement
Replies: 32
Views: 3067

Re: Health Insurance In Retirement

Isn't the game to live off of taxable until Medicare starts, so that you have no income and get ACA cheap? (Genuinely asking. I don't actually know.)
by bogglizer
Sun Feb 02, 2020 9:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Disturbing Question on 2019 IRS Tax Form [Bitcoin]
Replies: 59
Views: 3724

Re: Disturbing Question on 2019 IRS Tax Form

For the first time ever, the IRS has included the following question on its Schedule 1 1040 tax form for 2019: “At anytime during 2019, did you receive, sell, send, exchange, or otherwise acquire any financial interest in any virtual currency?” If you print out the keys and put them in your safe, t...
by bogglizer
Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me figure out the Target Volatility formula
Replies: 66
Views: 3710

Re: Help me figure out the Target Volatility formula

1) The underlying distribution always has infinite variance. Variance is a flawed measure of volatility. You know perfectly well that there are tons of distributions that don't have infinite variance. You know that what you wrote is not true. 2) Yes, people can always go off and compute stuff. And ...
by bogglizer
Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay down mortgage or invest? (and any other comments on financial picture!)
Replies: 24
Views: 940

Re: Pay down mortgage or invest? (and any other comments on financial picture!)

Well, stay away from THIS financial advisor, at a minimum. You are already socking away savings in a tax-efficient manner, just all for your kids and not as much for you. If you can't decide whether to pay down the mortgage or save for retirement, then pick a ratio of the two that feels right to you...
by bogglizer
Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: That one slipped by me, now I'm rechecking everything [Death book]
Replies: 4
Views: 1878

Re: That one slipped by me, now I'm rechecking everything [Death book]

After almost 20 years of marriage, I finally made one of those earlier this month to give to my wife. My untimely demise would have left her in stays. All brought about by the recent need for an operation on my part.
by bogglizer
Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me figure out the Target Volatility formula
Replies: 66
Views: 3710

Re: Help me figure out the Target Volatility formula

If you add fat tails into the mix, then the variance is infinite and the entire approach is bogus. 1) The variance of a finite sample of finite values is always defined and finite. 2) We've known for a very long time that stocks are not Gaussians, and that hasn't stopped anyone from computing stand...
by bogglizer
Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For those of you that include your vehicle(s) in your net worth, how do you determine its value?
Replies: 66
Views: 2419

Re: For those of you that include your vehicle(s) in your net worth, how do you determine its value?

g2morrow wrote:
Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:40 am
I don't' count depreciating assets. That's just me though.
I used to, but including a depreciating asset as part of net worth is depressing. Who needs that?
by bogglizer
Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Examples of Low Tech Improving Your Life
Replies: 207
Views: 16024

Re: Examples of Low Tech Improving Your Life

I have only a cell phone for work and only carry it when working. At home I have one of those old AT&T phones, but the kind with the buttons, not the rotary dial.

I do have a relatively new car, from 2001.
by bogglizer
Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: residential property - quitclaim vs. beneficiary deed
Replies: 2
Views: 237

Re: residential property - quitclaim vs. beneficiary deed

Answer may depend on if you live in a common property state.
by bogglizer
Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best bank for holding EF and short term savings?
Replies: 40
Views: 2504

Re: Best bank for holding EF and short term savings?

People here often rant positively about Ally Bank. I like DiscoverBank service, which is at least 2%. Get the best rates and bankrate.com.
by bogglizer
Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do bond yields affect mortgage rates?
Replies: 13
Views: 820

Re: Why do bond yields affect mortgage rates?

A possible difference is that one investment is backed by the full faith and credit of the US and the other isn't. There are times when that can be significant. Most mortgages get bundled into Mortgage Backed Securities which - basically - is also backed by the full faith and credit of the US gover...
by bogglizer
Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me figure out the Target Volatility formula
Replies: 66
Views: 3710

Re: Help me figure out the Target Volatility formula

What I like about target volatility is that it gives you a better sense of the risk of the portfolio. Unfortunately stock returns are not Gaussian; the distribution has fat tails and 3-sigma and 4-sigma events happen a lot more often than would be true for a Gaussian. But empirically we can note th...
by bogglizer
Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How does someone know whether they would enjoy being a manager?
Replies: 59
Views: 3946

Re: How does someone know whether they would enjoy being a manager?

Meyers-Briggs has been utterly discredited. Entertaining, though.

There is a difference between management and leadership. I got asked what that difference was in a job interview once.
by bogglizer
Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should We Even Bother Applying for College Financial Aid?
Replies: 28
Views: 2049

Re: Should We Even Bother Applying for College Financial Aid?

FinanceGeek wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:48 pm
I'm a believer in the student having some skin in the game ... e.g. loans.
I believe that student loans are Evil Incarnate. I would only consider them if I knew my child were willing to flee the country.
by bogglizer
Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stupid mistake leads to even more stupid leverage idea
Replies: 9
Views: 1209

Re: Stupid mistake leads to even more stupid leverage idea

mighty72 wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:57 pm
Did you contribute last year? I think you still have time to make 2019 contributions if you haven't done so already
Contributed for 2019 and 2020. Thought I hadn't funded the first one, but was mislead by the bad user interface.
by bogglizer
Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stupid mistake leads to even more stupid leverage idea
Replies: 9
Views: 1209

Re: Stupid mistake leads to even more stupid leverage idea

mister_sparkle wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:53 pm
I'm pretty sure you need to withdraw any gain you made on the excess contributions. I'm dealing with that for 2019, and there are penalties of 10% and 6% that are hitting me for the minor amount I gained.
Oh, man! The gov't saw my loophole. Back to the drawing board.
by bogglizer
Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stupid mistake leads to even more stupid leverage idea
Replies: 9
Views: 1209

Stupid mistake leads to even more stupid leverage idea

So, I accidentally funded my wife's Roth twice by opening two Roths at the same time at different brokerages. Oops. Now I have to wait for one of them to gain back 2% that the market lost yesterday so I can close it. (Otherwise I have to take funds from both Roths.) Is there some reason why I couldn...
by bogglizer
Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau
Replies: 179
Views: 14256

Re: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau

4% is safe if you are willing to toss all the black swans. However, if you make this assumption, then there is no reason to bother with back testing. On the other hand, if an event is large enough to destroy your country's economy, then you only have to be better off than your peers. I would think ...
by bogglizer
Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau
Replies: 179
Views: 14256

Re: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau

4% is safe if you are willing to toss all the black swans. However, if you make this assumption, then there is no reason to bother with back testing. On the other hand, if an event is large enough to destroy your country's economy, then you only have to be better off than your peers.
by bogglizer
Sun Jan 26, 2020 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Synthetic Roth via leverage?
Replies: 10
Views: 777

Re: Synthetic Roth via leverage?

Risk is money. You are buying risk equal to the tax difference. Upshot is that you have more risk and the government gets more money. As a taxpayer, I approve! However, as a BH, the Roth may be preferable, as the government has given you a free gift equal to the cost risk of aforementioned leveraging.
by bogglizer
Sun Jan 26, 2020 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity - documenting trust chain back to natural person
Replies: 10
Views: 1139

Re: Fidelity - documenting trust chain back to natural person

I would move the trust elsewhere, but simultaneously try to dig up that information and get is stored somewhere safe. Armor for the future.
by bogglizer
Sun Jan 26, 2020 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?
Replies: 113
Views: 5542

Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 9:37 am
bogglizer wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 2:40 am
I also root for earthquakes, hurricanes, and forest fires.
Are you serious? If so, please explain.
I empathize with the victims and all that. However, I also enjoy the excitement. Action movies suck without a villain. No reason why real life should be different.
by bogglizer
Sun Jan 26, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Implications of (US) pension funding deficit?
Replies: 18
Views: 1383

Re: Implications of (US) pension funding deficit?

Makes municipal bonds riskier. In bankruptcy, are bondholders paid before pensioners? Makes me wonder to which extend pension funds hold municipal bonds themselves? Sorry, I meant that mutual bond funds (the kind BHs use) holding munis are more risky. If a company goes bankrupt, bond holders are pa...
by bogglizer
Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Implications of (US) pension funding deficit?
Replies: 18
Views: 1383

Re: Implications of (US) pension funding deficit?

Makes municipal bonds riskier. In bankruptcy, are bondholders paid before pensioners?
by bogglizer
Sun Jan 26, 2020 2:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The Final Definitive Thread on Best Brokerage
Replies: 23
Views: 2934

Re: The Final Definitive Thread on Best Brokerage

We should start regularly discussing our BA - Brokerage Allocation. The standard Three-Brokerage Portfolio could be 1/3 Vanguard, 1/3 Fidelity, and 1/3 Schwab. I'll go create the wiki page now... :wink:
by bogglizer
Sun Jan 26, 2020 2:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?
Replies: 113
Views: 5542

Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

When I say that I enjoy down markets, people here look at me like I have two heads. But it's true. Market volatility is why we get the big bucks. +1 Counterintuitive but true Market crashes are a wonderful opportunity to practice nonattachment. +1 This is tougher for me than sitting through a downt...
by bogglizer
Sat Jan 25, 2020 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Schwab's growth threaten Vanguard's domination (article)
Replies: 100
Views: 5073

Re: Does Schwab's growth threaten Vanguard's domination (article)

After being a Vanguard customer since eternity, I recently got an inheritance at Schwab. Many things about the brokerage interface are very awkward and made no sense to me. However, after reading this article, I understand completely. The interface is designed to have cash sit between investment cha...
by bogglizer
Sat Jan 25, 2020 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vary asset allocation across accounts?
Replies: 6
Views: 524

Re: Vary asset allocation across accounts?

My approach is to try to minimize the total number of funds used across all accounts, just to preserve my sanity. I have 8 retirement accounts now, and if I did the mirror method, I would need at least 24 funds for a three-fund portfolio. In order to maintain AA, a few accounts have either USA/Bond ...
by bogglizer
Sat Jan 25, 2020 11:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Budget with high standard deviation—yet another party I to which I have arrived late!!
Replies: 12
Views: 1549

Re: Budget with high standard deviation—yet another party I to which I have arrived late!!

I started tracking everything almost 20 years ago. For a time I kept a black swan list (not that I knew about the term back then), so that I had some idea of how much I needed to budget towards these things. Then I switched to an unused (and so far never used for emergencies) HELOC to make me feel b...
by bogglizer
Sat Jan 25, 2020 1:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Old 401k Fund - investment advice
Replies: 16
Views: 778

Re: Old 401k Fund - investment advice

123 wrote:
Sat Jan 25, 2020 12:23 am
If it were my money at that age I would go 100% SWPPX but your mix of SWPPX and VMVAX could be reasonable as well, If she's not going to look at it I'd say go all SWPPX but that's just me.
This.
by bogglizer
Sat Jan 25, 2020 1:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Making funeral arrangements? Consider "pre-need" insurance
Replies: 35
Views: 3850

Re: Making funeral arrangements? Consider "pre-need" insurance

My sister used to own a cemetery. Amazing what you can and cannot do. In many places (unincorporated cities mostly), you can just go bury old uncle Bob in the backyard.
by bogglizer
Sat Jan 25, 2020 1:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I am not very good at my job
Replies: 48
Views: 7789

Re: I am not very good at my job

This topic generates long, advice-ridden posts. You probably don't need more.

I was in your position when I started my current job. Then I reached my number for FI. Now I don't care. Lay me off, don't lay me off, whatever. I am just going to have fun.
by bogglizer
Sat Jan 25, 2020 12:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Surrender Annuity to Help Pay Off Student Loan?
Replies: 7
Views: 469

Re: Surrender Annuity to Help Pay Off Student Loan?

Personally, I would pay off the 6.6% student loan. But this is because I think student loans are Evil Incarnate, so I am not rational on this point.
by bogglizer
Sat Jan 25, 2020 12:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lowest cost way to get leveraged equity exposure
Replies: 49
Views: 3256

Re: Lowest cost way to get leveraged equity exposure

Everyone else should leverage. Makes the downturns hurt less for me.
by bogglizer
Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Closest Schwab equivalents to the various Vanguard funds?
Replies: 9
Views: 949

Re: Closest Schwab equivalents to the various Vanguard funds?

There is no equivalent to VTIAX (international index), but you can get close with 67% SWISX, 21.5% SFENX, and 11.5% SFILX. This omits Canada. SFENX & SFILX are around 0.39% ER, but they are only 1/3 of the total. Maybe you can do better with ETFs.

This was pulled from previous BH threads; YMMV.
by bogglizer
Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A thumb-rule for buying a house.
Replies: 20
Views: 1893

Re: A thumb-rule for buying a house.

I've been told, like others, that the bank suggests no more then 1/3 of income. HOWEVER, the entire question is absurd. If you buy as much house as you can afford, then that means, by definition, that you can afford no more house. And by extension, no more of anything else. All of your money is acco...
by bogglizer
Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: List of funds that should in a small company 401K ?
Replies: 36
Views: 1115

Re: List of funds that should in a small company 401K ?

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSAX)
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund (VTIAX)
Vanguard Total Bond Market Fund (VBTLX)
Target date funds

and absolutely no others. The more choices, the more chances of people doing something dumb. Just my two cents.
by bogglizer
Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Replicate VTSAX with company 401k options?
Replies: 9
Views: 572

Re: Replicate VTSAX with company 401k options?

Ask HR to add VEMPX, which is the extended market for VIIIX.
by bogglizer
Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3822
Views: 353245

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

HomerJ wrote:
Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:28 pm
The market runs in cycles, bear markets are followed by bull markets which are then followed by bear markets. it's NOT purely random.
A totally random time series would also appear to have bear and bull markets. The question is if real data has stronger ones.
by bogglizer
Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is home ownership a whole life policy?
Replies: 42
Views: 3162

Is home ownership a whole life policy?

Here on this forum, whole life policies are considered satanic, since (a) they couple together (otherwise unrelated) investment and life insurance and (b) they pay the agent a big fee. Similarly, home ownership couples investment to housing and has large expenses when buying and selling. So, how is ...
by bogglizer
Sun Jan 19, 2020 8:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: [Chase told me they can beat index funds]
Replies: 48
Views: 3803

Re: [Chase told me they can beat index funds]

No reason that the salesman couldn't be 100% correct. It's called a Ponzi scheme.
by bogglizer
Sun Jan 19, 2020 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Paralysis by analysis - Taxable account
Replies: 23
Views: 1800

Re: Paralysis by analysis - Taxable account

Thank you! The bond options in my 401K have some of the worst ERs I have ever seen. That’s why I’ve been avoiding them in there. Every single time I have complained to HR about the bad 401/403 fund choices, HR has acted and added my requests. I am batting 3 for 3 on this one, including a Fortune 10...
by bogglizer
Sun Jan 19, 2020 2:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Paralysis by analysis - Taxable account
Replies: 23
Views: 1800

Re: Paralysis by analysis - Taxable account

If you sell the fidelity funds be aware of a taxable event. Also there are a few current threads on taxable investing. The one Bonds in Taxable may have good info for you (if you haven’t seen it). My thread got a few responses too (Taxable - Seeking Another Fund) Thanks mortfree. I’ve read through ...
by bogglizer
Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career change at 47
Replies: 109
Views: 9738

Re: Career change at 47

Sadly, employees, subcontractors, architects, designers, vendors and clients are all subclasses of human. I doubt that the people will be any better in some other monetary pursuit. Forest service ranger?
by bogglizer
Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who is not "Most Investors"?
Replies: 36
Views: 2803

Re: Who is not "Most Investors"?

If I worked in an industry sector (aerospace, real estate, etc), I would want to short that sector in order to reduce risk. (Short relative to the three-fund portfolio, that is, so I had less exposure.)
by bogglizer
Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 1099-R For 3cents for Deceased
Replies: 11
Views: 1062

Re: 1099-R For 3cents for Deceased

Personally, I would find an old version of TurboTax 2016 and file a full 1040, with all the optional forms. Just to poke the IRS.