Search found 1223 matches

by Novine
Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:24 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106986

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

But please just stay home.1 The original stay at home order in my state was issued 3/30 and was to be for two weeks (although some business like restaurants, etc were closed 10 days earlier). Then the order was extended through 4/30. Well, okay. Let me tell you though, come 5/1 I don't give a d*** what they say. And trust me, I am not the only one. This kowtowing to the single minded goals of the epidemiologists who finally get to play their table top games for real and their to h*** with everyone else attitude about all the collateral damage while they destroy people's lively hoods and cause damage which will reverberate through through the economy and society for years if not decades has got to end. I hear a lot of this. It's not going t...
by Novine
Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:26 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106986

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Unfortunately we can only speculate how bad we got hit and only speculate how much our stay at home order has helped. But we have strict rules and a high CFR. I would say it's pretty easy to see the impact of the stay-at-home order on the virus in southeast Michigan. Several hospital systems have been publishing their patient counts for people hospitalized with coronavirus. When Michigan issued the stay-at-home order on March 23, hospitalizations were increasing at a rapid rate. It took about a week into the lock down for that rate of increase to start slowing. By the end of the second week, a couple system had reported their peak number of hospitalizations. The stay-at-home order has finished its third week and in a couple systems, the ho...
by Novine
Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:36 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106986

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

spidercharm01 wrote: Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:24 pm I wanted to come back and post an update. I almost feel like saying "told you so". Although it seems this thread was reset, so older posts have been removed.
Most of the posters who made the "it's no worse than the flu" claims in the previous version of this discussion seem to have found other things to discuss. Most of their predictions faded in the face of reality. Perhaps the curve will bend fast enough here in the United States that this will end up being like a really bad flu season when measured in deaths and hospitalizations. But I wouldn't bet on that.
by Novine
Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:10 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

More good news from Italy. The number of deaths per day peaked six days ago. The number has been on a steady downward trend since then. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy Since deaths lag infections by several weeks, Italy's new cases probably peaked 3-4 weeks ago. Deaths are still growing in Spain but very slowly. The statistics out of France are skewed because they hadn't been including nursing home deaths then added those in yesterday. Since the U.S. lags Italy by about 8 days, I think U.S. deaths will peak very soon, perhaps this weekend. The death count in the US is currently 6,098. If we peak this weekend, it suggests that total U.S. deaths will end up being much lower than most forecasts. By "Italy's new ca...
by Novine
Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:57 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

One striking aspect of the confirmed cases versus deaths in Michigan is the disparity by sex in deaths. Data as of 4/1/2020.

Overall Percentage of Cases by Sex - 9334 total cases
Male 49%
Female 51%
Unknown <1%

Overall Percentage of Deceased by Sex - 337 deaths
Male 64%
Female 36%

Age Data of Overall Deceased
Average Age 71.1 years
Median Age 72 years
Age Range 25-107 years
by Novine
Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:32 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Henry Ford Hospital in Detroit has been using it for weeks to treat their sickest patients: "“I don’t want to get the idea that hydroxychloroquine is, is the only treatment or is going to be, you know, some sort of miracle cure,” Zervos said. “It really still has to be looked at in a formal clinical trial, we still need more data. As it is now, we feel that this is an important alternative ... this is an important option but there may be other options that are better to address the issue." Zervos said only the sickest patients are receiving the treatment. He estimated 15% of COVID-19 patients have been hospitalized for “serious infections” that can cause various complications, including heart and lung issues. A hospital spokespers...
by Novine
Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:10 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

... Severe: Generalized spread Case transmission is not contained, accelerates in the near term, continues over a longer duration (>3 months) and becomes widespread - ultimately reaches 500k-10M+ cases before plateauing towards end of 2020. Health systems challenged by exponential case growth; while average mortality remains at 0.5%, higher disruption in areas with lower care access and lesser prepared/equipped health systems drives pockets of higher mortality upwards of 1.5% Widespread throughout country, with all major US cities experiencing a min 4 week quarantine in March/April, with some areas extending quarantine dependent on spread Here's a post from less than 3 weeks ago. We're well into the "moderate" scenario and in som...
by Novine
Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:17 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I am in healthcare administration for a medical and research center. I have a document created and updated on March 10th by a management consultant company that analyzes the available data, provides 3 possible scenarios, and provides guidance for healthcare institutions, providers, and payers to ramp up to handle this pandemic as much as possible. If we can handle the crisis more like South Korea and less like Iran and Italy, I see us landing in either the mild or moderate scenario below. I think that is likely given our top notch healthcare institutions and personnel in our metro areas. My Key Take-ways 1. The U.S. has been gifted more time than other countries in order for our healthcare institutions and personnel to prepare (same for th...
by Novine
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:24 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Spain reported a record number of deaths from COVID-19 on Tuesday.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/spai ... -toll-jump
by Novine
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

rkhusky wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:33 am Numbers posted overnight continue to be encouraging. New positive cases seem to be linearizing - about 20,000 new cases each day for the last 4 days. Exponential fit for the last 4 days is giving a doubling time of 4.4 days (up from 2 days a few weeks ago).

Doubling times for deaths is also increasing - up to 3.4 days using an exponential fit over the last 4 days.
Absent testing numbers, this may simply be a function of hitting the limits of the testing capacity. Many places are testing too few people to have any real insights into the spread of the virus.
by Novine
Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:09 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

tdmp wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:57 pm Does anyone here still thinks this is "just the flu"?
...
Now that the case counts and deaths are starting to mount here in the US, the "it's just the flu" crowd has moved on to comparing the number of deaths that have occurred in three months with the number of deaths annually caused by the seasonal flu, car accidents, etc. The goalposts keep moving as the virus continues to spread across the country. I hope it ends up being comparable to a "very bad flu season" but that would require a continuing lockdown combined with some medical breakthroughs that can be implemented widely and quickly. Otherwise, the trajectories look really bad.
by Novine
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

... I am trying not to catastrophize. But our society clearly failed to imagine the current scenario. I'm sure many public health people saw this coming, but I did not. In January if someone claimed that by the end of March the President of the United States would be seriously contemplating a quarantine of New York and surrounding areas, many persons (including I suspect, many posting on this board) would have minimized, ignored or humiliated that person. ... If you go back to the beginning of this thread and read through the comments, that's exactly what you'll read. Some of the same people who were dismissing the warnings continued to keep posting "it's just the flu" comments. I haven't seen too many of those recently although ...
by Novine
Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:00 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Dr. Fauci in New England Journal of Medicine Concedes the Coronavirus Mortality Rate May Be Much Closer to a Bad Flu Posted late Feb If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively. Can you share with us the last flu season where hospitals ...
by Novine
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:28 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

truenorth418 wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:07 am ...having virtually every person in the country stay inside their homes for an indefinite period of time is not "highly aggressive"?
Not accurate. A number of states have not implemented "shelter in place" orders. Even in Florida, where the cases continue to skyrocket, the Governor refuses to issue a statewide order.
by Novine
Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:04 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

That graph is garbage statistics. Comparing totals based on a 12 month total versus a disease that only emerged in most of the world in the past 3 months is completely useless. The same with the US totals. Show us the flu totals from the first 3 months of the 2017- 2018 flu season and you may have something useful. Since most flu deaths occur from October-May, it wouldn't be difficult. Take perhaps 1/3 of the total flu deaths to be very conservative. The graph is still quite striking don't you think? Death totals that last year didn't merit a news article are now causing mass panic. And that graph comes from the WHO, so if you feel it's garbage statistics you could take it up with them I suppose. The graph doesn't come from the WHO. It com...
by Novine
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:36 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

For those who might feel like the world is ending, I'm just going to post this right here... https://i.imgur.com/e4QJ7T0l.jpg You might also read an article published today in The New England Journal of Medicine titled: “Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted.” The article considers the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, concluding: “This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.” That graph is garbage statistics. Comparing totals b...
by Novine
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:32 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Recent data from the Diamond Princess where everyone was tested shows for that population, the case fatality rate for those infected was calculated to be 0.63%. Of course it's higher for the elderly and I don't know how old the average Diamond Princess passenger/crew were. So if the average age were higher than the general population, the fatality rate could be lower than that. Other estimates from March 5: Lower estimates might be closest to the true value, but a broad range of 0.25%–3.0% probably should be considered. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0320_article I highly doubt Covid-19 is similar to SARS or MERS at least based on data available today. Your data is outdated. The number of deaths from the Diamond Princess has rea...
by Novine
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:36 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

You must be a Spartan. I’ve heard that two flagship hospital systems in the state are getting hit hard (Ford and Beaumont systems). Hammered. But you'll get the naysayers who will come on here and say that their numbers prove it's not a big deal. "Describing the novel coronavirus pandemic as a "biological tsunami," Beaumont Health President and CEO John Fox told the Free Press Wednesday that the hospital system is adding about 100 new patients per day who have COVID-19. That pace has continued for the last three days. "What we all need to remember is that we got our first patient two weeks ago," he said. "So this is coming on hard and fast. This is definitely a biological tsunami." He said so far, the hos...
by Novine
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 76648

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

I think the bottom is behind us. Lots of people said today would be down because of the unemployment numbers. The opposite is true. That tells me the market has already priced that in. There very well could be a V shaped recovery if this isn't as bad as everyone is making it seem. Just a few days ago, Gov. Newsom said 56% of CA would get it within a few weeks, roughly 26 million ppl. Well globally, to date, only about 500k people have gotten it. A lot of overstatements have been made! Add to that we are in the second week of stay at home orders, I expect the numbers to begin decreasing soon. That's not what the Governor said. He said those were the potential numbers in 8 weeks if California did nothing. Obviously, he doesn't expect it to b...
by Novine
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 76648

Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

According to yesterday's Coronavirus briefing, the "curve" is starting to "flatten". The reason for the new number of cases is due to "catch up" from the previous weeks. People that were affected then had not yet known it -- hence now they are in the medical room and this is why we have the numbers we do now. Also, during that time, we had started the social distancing. Also, the media popularized 50-60% infection rate is a "worse case scenario" model and we are not seeing anywhere the infection rate for those models. We have people backtracking their publications now (see Imperial College backlash) Very optimistic feelings coming from the Coronavirus task force right now. Watch the briefings when yo...
by Novine
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Replies: 302
Views: 19075

Re: Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?

Does anyone believe that what's followed over the past 6 weeks was "priced into the markets" on February 12? There's no evidence that it was. I think you agree. I fully expect to see the same happen tomorrow (March 26) when the unemployment numbers come out. Any evidence that the markets have priced in the impact of the reporting of huge unemployment numbers? I haven't seen it. Numbers are out. Largest on record. Market is up nearly 2%. Nobody knows 'nothin. RIght. I don't expect that to last. But it is consistent with my final point. What's "logical" and what the market decides to do over the short-term can be two very different. If economic conditions continue on this track, the markets will eventually reflect that.
by Novine
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts
Replies: 24
Views: 2760

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

bugleheadd wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:27 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:23 pm Buckle up ladies and gentlemen. I wouldn't bet that the market has priced in 3+ million being suddenly unemployed with more to surely follow.
why woudnt it be priced in? its been all over the news and talked about since early last week how millions will be unemployed last week alone, and we could end up with 20-40% unemployment.
Let's revisit this at 4 pm on Thursday. I was skeptical that we would see 2 days in a row of a positive market and I was wrong. But I'm pretty confident that Thursday is going to be rough sledding.
by Novine
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Replies: 302
Views: 19075

Re: Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?

fitterhappier - I noted in another discussion that the idea that "the markets" are forward thinking is pretty hard to accept when we look at what happened during the month of February. On February 12, the Dow rang up its highest average ever. This happened in the face of all the news coming out of China, the increasing spread of the coronavirus in the US and the potential that the same economic contraction hitting China could happen here with all the resulting economic problems that would result. Does anyone believe that what's followed over the past 6 weeks was "priced into the markets" on February 12? There's no evidence that it was. I think you agree. I fully expect to see the same happen tomorrow (March 26) when the ...
by Novine
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 76648

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Definitely bearish on the near term prospects. Anyone who wants to talk about the "wisdom of the markets" needs to explain how "the market" was completely oblivious to the oncoming threat of the coronavirus to the US and world economy. All the warning lights were flashing red and yet stocks continued to race upward until they didn't.
by Novine
Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deal reached on $2 Trillion stimulus bill - Largest in U.S. History
Replies: 8
Views: 1588

Re: Deal reached on $2 Trillion stimulus bill - Largest in U.S. History

The stimulus bounce was yesterday. If people are expecting a 2 day rally, they are likely to be disappointed.
by Novine
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:55 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

So... I’ve read several posts in this thread with the them of “this is no big deal” or that we are overreacting. Im a doctor in New York. I work at a large tertiary care hospital. In the last 4 days the COVID census is up to about 20% of our beds. 2/3 these are ICU patients. Staff are being pulled from totally unrelated specialties to care for these patients. All other clinical programs are mothballed. Unless you are dying, you probably cannot get care from a specialist. Non Intensivists are taking crash courses on ventilator management. If you come down with this virus you may very well be cared for by a gynecologist. This is unprecedented. We have never seen anything remotely like this. We have been at this for about a week and we are at...
by Novine
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:32 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

This will be a catastrophic event, both economically and from a human health perspective. None of the news is good. People will die due to a lack of medical support and a dearth of proper medical equipment. It's not something any of has seen in our lifetimes. lol Literally just had a physical / bloodwork and my primary care physician / lab tech both said this will be a non story and part of the “flu season” rotation by 2021 Carry on with the dramatics if you’d like I suggest you find a new primary care physician! I'm surprise you laugh at the situation. 14,000+ cases and 131 deaths in NYC today. This was an illustration of the fact that there are some regular commenters in this thread who have been consistently wrong. But that hasn't stopp...
by Novine
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?
Replies: 52
Views: 4764

Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Forum wouldn't let me answer DCB
by Novine
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:58 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

86% of deaths in italy are people over 70. In addition to being the oldest country in Europe, with 1/5 of the population heavy smokers, there's this: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/italy-coronavirus-fatality-rate-high-200323114405536.html "The numbers we have are not representative of the entire infected population," said Massimo Galli, head of the infectious disease unit at Sacco Hospital in Milan, the main city in the worst-hit region of Lombardy where 68 percent of the total national fatalities have been reported. Galli explained that as the emergency situation rapidly deteriorated over the past month, Italy focused its testing only on people showing severe symptoms in areas with high epidemic intensity - the result, e...
by Novine
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:51 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

How's that working out in Italy?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattperez/ ... -declines/

China shut down their entire country and was forcing infected individuals into quarantine. Any sign of that in the US?
by Novine
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:38 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Tigermoose wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:16 am
More like this is the normal course of a viral epidemic following a predictable bell curve. One month to inflection, two months to mostly over. Same thing happened in China. Same thing happened in South Korea.

The forecasting models are as about as reliable as climate change models. Past results are not aligning with the forecasted simulations. You decide which is a better model. The actual past or the computer models created by humans. I'm betting on actual reality.
This is nonsense. One simply needs to look at the number of cases and deaths in various cities during the 1918 H1N1 Pandemic to see that the progression of the flu was highly variable dependent on what measures were taken or not taken to curb the spread of the flu.
by Novine
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:59 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

In the absence of large scale testing, which we don't have in the US and won't have in the immediate future, how are these "go back to work" schemes supposed to work? I'm sure there are plenty of people who will go back to work out of desperation to put food on the family table. But how many who have some choice in that are going to want to go back to a workplace or out into the world where anyone could have the virus and bring that back to their spouse or children or parents or grandparents?
by Novine
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:09 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

When people question the exponential growth numbers they aren't doubting that exponential growth exists as a mathematical concept. They are questioning the extreme views that some exponential infection adherents are pushing that we will see millions of deaths in the US in a few months. Thanks. :beer I'm sure there are people pushing the extreme view that millions will die in a few months. I'm not one of them. Nor do I see much of that here. But the US healthcare system doesn't need millions of deaths to effectively collapse. We're already seeing hospitals in hot spots reaching a tipping point. You can't have a continuous flow of COVID-19 patients needing extraordinary care into a system that's not equipped to handle that. The healthcare pr...
by Novine
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

It's worth repeating because we are no where close to swine flu numbers and I hope we don't get there. Not to my knowledge. Are you expecting more than 12,469 deaths? If so, based on what data? I'm trying to suggest a more measured response is warranted based on the data. The 2009 swine flu pandemic numbers are based on one year's worth of data. How many people had died from the swine flu in the first month or two of the outbreak? Why are people expecting more deaths? - Zero immunity - The older population in 2009 had some level of immunity due to exposure to previous H1N1 strains. In that year, 20% of the population got the swine flu - No vaccine - Appears to have a higher fatality rate than the H1N1 strain in 2009, which actually killed ...
by Novine
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Cash is King wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:27 pm
Nope. In my opinion, it's sensationalism. The Worldometer is reporting 483 deaths as of this morning. It shows only 12 states with new deaths with most reporting 1. New York is reporting 43 which brings their total deaths to 157. That's good news.
I think it's worth repeating. According to the CDC: the Swine flu infected 60.8 million individuals in the US, hospitalized 274,000 people and resulted in 12,469 deaths.
The typical flu season runs about 6 - 8 months. In most of the US, the first confirmed cases were reported this month. The virus is still spreading at an exponential rate. Posts like these won't age well.
by Novine
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:38 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: eerily quiet in the hood

framus wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:31 pm
Governor Cuomo discussed sending people back to work in his news conference today. He wasn't talking about a blanket "everybody back to work" policy. He discussed thinking about how to get the economy restarted by having folks who had had the virus and established immunity as those who could begin work roles. He acknowledged this is a difficult, nuanced approach but advocated it as something to seriously consider.
That might be possible if we could test everyone multiple times to confirm they no longer had the virus. Is that happening anywhere?
by Novine
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:10 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Is there still a requirement for those receiving unemployment to be actively looking for a job? I seem to remember way back when I worked at a hardware store, people coming in for us to sign some form that they had checked for a job at our store. That's been waived in my state. I can't speak for other states. The people who are eligible for unemployment will get it one way or another. The bigger problem, as was noted, are all the people who are not eligible for unemployment. Absent some direct cash payments, some of those people are going to be in a bad place quickly. My earlier comments about those who seem to want to sacrifice health care workers and many others in favor of restarting the economy is directed at the talking heads at the W...
by Novine
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:13 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

4% CFR seems quite high and they should focus on the Infection Fatality Rate, not the CFR. The last study I saw estimated an IRF of %0.2 - https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/. IRF is more important than CFR since a lot of people are asymptomatic and/or not tested. So if 75% of America gets it, that would be about 500k deaths. Still a staggering number that is tough to imagine but drastically less than 10 million To put that in perspective, that would be 10 times a "bad" season flu season. Even worse is the number of health care professionals who would be among the victims. It sounds like some Americans are willing to sacrifice the "brightest and best" of our healthcare system because they can't sta...
by Novine
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:56 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Actually why Germany is doing so well in their mortality rate is a great questions, I'm also interested in this. I also agree with whoever said the cases are vastly under reported in the U.S. So far there has been 33.5K confirmed Covid19 cases in the USA on record. How many have there really been taking into account mild an asymptomatic cases. In general we are really only testing patients with fever and respiratory symptoms that require a hospital admit or that have had direct exposure to a known positive case. What if there have already been 5x or 10x the covid cases (mild/asymptomatic) in the us ? This would mean the morality rate is actually much lower and we are that much closer to herd immunity. This article indicates that Germany's ...
by Novine
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open
Replies: 155
Views: 16060

Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Don't forget that measures to "flatten the curve" also extend it. Over time, that will reduce the number of new cases and deaths each day, but it also extends out the amount of time that the economy is shut down. I personally think that's the right move but it also means that you have to account for the economic impact of that.
by Novine
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open
Replies: 155
Views: 16060

Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Seeing reports that unemployment claims for the past week exceeded the highest amounts during the Great Recession should do wonders for the markets tomorrow. Each unfolding of the scope of the economic downturn is going to continue to drive the markets down. Anyone who thinks that all the downside has already been priced into the market isn't appreciating how much downside still remains.
by Novine
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:43 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Looking at the number of deaths vs the number of cases in the USA is deceptive since , out of 32K cases in the US, though there have been only about 400 deaths to date, there are only 178 total recoveries so far, and almost 32K cases still labeled "active". A large percentage were just diagnosed in the last day or two. How many of them will eventually die is still unknown. China is the only country that has a large enough proportion of cases "recovered" that their mortality figures may have some significance, assuming the numbers are accurate. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries I wouldn't read too much into those numbers related to "active cases" and "recoveries". If you scroll down...
by Novine
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:38 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

rkhusky wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:31 pm Comparing Italy to the US, Dr Fauci said
“Early on they did not shut out as well the input of infections that originated in China and came to different parts of the world. One of the things that we did very early and very aggressively, the president put the travel restriction coming from China to the United States and most recently from Europe to the United States because Europe is really the new China. Again I don’t know why this is happening there to such an extent, but it is conceivable that once you get so many of these spreads out they spread exponentially and you can never keep up with the tsunami.”
All respect to Dr. Fauci but he's wrong about that. Italy closed off travel from China very early on.
by Novine
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:23 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Klangfool, The number of deaths. We will definitely seem more cases as we do more testing. They're thousands of people who get the flu but don't die. Actually, millions of Americans get the flu each year and don't die. But this is how it's different - roughly 10% of Americans get the seasonal flu each year. That's around 33 million people. Of those that get it, an average of 0.1% die from it, or 33,000 people. Most people don't get the flu because they have some immunity to it, they get a vaccine or they manage to avoid being exposed to it. Because no one has immunity to the coronavirus, everyone has the potential of getting it. Currently, there's no vaccine for it. It's clearly spreading rapidly. By some estimates, it spreads even more ea...
by Novine
Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:48 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Cash is King wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:36 pm KlangFool,
I can't say with certainty one way or the other because the data does not support that it is worst than the flu. Could that change, Yes. For now, I don't believe it's worse than the flu.
The actions and behavior of other countries have varied. I tend to believe that our earlier actions of closing entry from other countries will result in less deaths. Time will tell whether or not that's a correct statement.
Can you share with us the weekly stats for the season flu this year from October 1 onward? It should be pretty easy to compare the weekly numbers of deaths from the flu and flu-related illnesses to the Coronavirus and see which is more virulent/deadly.
by Novine
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:40 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Irenaeus wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:06 pm Well, 3.4% is less than 4%, but on 3 March 2020 the Who Director-General remarked that [g]lobally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.
That's one difference between medical experts and some of the Bogleheads experts - they've adjusted their statements based on new evidence. If you are parroting numbers from 3 weeks ago when there were just 125 reported cases in the US when we're now at 38,000 cases, you probably need to do some more reading to get up to speed.
by Novine
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298317

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

spidercharm01 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:57 am
Let's say if turns out that this one ends up being twice more deadly than regular flu (0.4% instead of 0.2% for the flu), it's certainly bad. However, that's entirely different from saying fatality rate is 4% (current belief). I bet we will not be shutting down countries if we knew fatality rate was 0.4%.
No one in the medical field is saying coronavirus has a 4% fatality rate. It gets tiresome hearing strawman arguments from the same people who have constantly downplayed the severity of what's unfolding. Some people need to go back and see how often their predictions have been wrong before they post their next prediction.