Search found 1223 matches

by Novine
Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:24 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 72590

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

But please just stay home.1 The original stay at home order in my state was issued 3/30 and was to be for two weeks (although some business like restaurants, etc were closed 10 days earlier). Then the order was extended through 4/30. Well, okay. Let me tell you though, come 5/1 I don't give a d*** ...
by Novine
Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:26 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 72590

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Unfortunately we can only speculate how bad we got hit and only speculate how much our stay at home order has helped. But we have strict rules and a high CFR. I would say it's pretty easy to see the impact of the stay-at-home order on the virus in southeast Michigan. Several hospital systems have b...
by Novine
Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:36 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 72590

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I wanted to come back and post an update. I almost feel like saying "told you so". Although it seems this thread was reset, so older posts have been removed. Most of the posters who made the "it's no worse than the flu" claims in the previous version of this discussion seem to have found other thin...
by Novine
Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:10 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

More good news from Italy. The number of deaths per day peaked six days ago. The number has been on a steady downward trend since then. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy Since deaths lag infections by several weeks, Italy's new cases probably peaked 3-4 weeks ago. Deaths are s...
by Novine
Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:57 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

One striking aspect of the confirmed cases versus deaths in Michigan is the disparity by sex in deaths. Data as of 4/1/2020. Overall Percentage of Cases by Sex - 9334 total cases Male 49% Female 51% Unknown <1% Overall Percentage of Deceased by Sex - 337 deaths Male 64% Female 36% Age Data of Overal...
by Novine
Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:32 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Henry Ford Hospital in Detroit has been using it for weeks to treat their sickest patients: "“I don’t want to get the idea that hydroxychloroquine is, is the only treatment or is going to be, you know, some sort of miracle cure,” Zervos said. “It really still has to be looked at in a formal clinical...
by Novine
Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:10 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

... Severe: Generalized spread Case transmission is not contained, accelerates in the near term, continues over a longer duration (>3 months) and becomes widespread - ultimately reaches 500k-10M+ cases before plateauing towards end of 2020. Health systems challenged by exponential case growth; whil...
by Novine
Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:17 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I am in healthcare administration for a medical and research center. I have a document created and updated on March 10th by a management consultant company that analyzes the available data, provides 3 possible scenarios, and provides guidance for healthcare institutions, providers, and payers to ra...
by Novine
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:24 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Spain reported a record number of deaths from COVID-19 on Tuesday.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/spai ... -toll-jump
by Novine
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Numbers posted overnight continue to be encouraging. New positive cases seem to be linearizing - about 20,000 new cases each day for the last 4 days. Exponential fit for the last 4 days is giving a doubling time of 4.4 days (up from 2 days a few weeks ago). Doubling times for deaths is also increas...
by Novine
Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:09 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Does anyone here still thinks this is "just the flu"? ... Now that the case counts and deaths are starting to mount here in the US, the "it's just the flu" crowd has moved on to comparing the number of deaths that have occurred in three months with the number of deaths annually caused by the season...
by Novine
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

... I am trying not to catastrophize. But our society clearly failed to imagine the current scenario. I'm sure many public health people saw this coming, but I did not. In January if someone claimed that by the end of March the President of the United States would be seriously contemplating a quara...
by Novine
Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:00 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Dr. Fauci in New England Journal of Medicine Concedes the Coronavirus Mortality Rate May Be Much Closer to a Bad Flu Posted late Feb If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be ...
by Novine
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:28 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

...having virtually every person in the country stay inside their homes for an indefinite period of time is not "highly aggressive"? Not accurate. A number of states have not implemented "shelter in place" orders. Even in Florida, where the cases continue to skyrocket, the Governor refuses to issue...
by Novine
Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:04 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

That graph is garbage statistics. Comparing totals based on a 12 month total versus a disease that only emerged in most of the world in the past 3 months is completely useless. The same with the US totals. Show us the flu totals from the first 3 months of the 2017- 2018 flu season and you may have ...
by Novine
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:36 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

For those who might feel like the world is ending, I'm just going to post this right here... https://i.imgur.com/e4QJ7T0l.jpg You might also read an article published today in The New England Journal of Medicine titled: “Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted.” The article considers the impact of the ...
by Novine
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:32 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Recent data from the Diamond Princess where everyone was tested shows for that population, the case fatality rate for those infected was calculated to be 0.63%. Of course it's higher for the elderly and I don't know how old the average Diamond Princess passenger/crew were. So if the average age wer...
by Novine
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:36 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

You must be a Spartan. I’ve heard that two flagship hospital systems in the state are getting hit hard (Ford and Beaumont systems). Hammered. But you'll get the naysayers who will come on here and say that their numbers prove it's not a big deal. "Describing the novel coronavirus pandemic as a "bio...
by Novine
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63167

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

I think the bottom is behind us. Lots of people said today would be down because of the unemployment numbers. The opposite is true. That tells me the market has already priced that in. There very well could be a V shaped recovery if this isn't as bad as everyone is making it seem. Just a few days a...
by Novine
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63167

Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

According to yesterday's Coronavirus briefing, the "curve" is starting to "flatten". The reason for the new number of cases is due to "catch up" from the previous weeks. People that were affected then had not yet known it -- hence now they are in the medical room and this is why we have the numbers...
by Novine
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Replies: 302
Views: 14247

Re: Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?

Does anyone believe that what's followed over the past 6 weeks was "priced into the markets" on February 12? There's no evidence that it was. I think you agree. I fully expect to see the same happen tomorrow (March 26) when the unemployment numbers come out. Any evidence that the markets have price...
by Novine
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts
Replies: 24
Views: 2098

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Buckle up ladies and gentlemen. I wouldn't bet that the market has priced in 3+ million being suddenly unemployed with more to surely follow. why woudnt it be priced in? its been all over the news and talked about since early last week how millions will be unemployed last week alone, and we could e...
by Novine
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Replies: 302
Views: 14247

Re: Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?

fitterhappier - I noted in another discussion that the idea that "the markets" are forward thinking is pretty hard to accept when we look at what happened during the month of February. On February 12, the Dow rang up its highest average ever. This happened in the face of all the news coming out of C...
by Novine
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63167

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Definitely bearish on the near term prospects. Anyone who wants to talk about the "wisdom of the markets" needs to explain how "the market" was completely oblivious to the oncoming threat of the coronavirus to the US and world economy. All the warning lights were flashing red and yet stocks continue...
by Novine
Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deal reached on $2 Trillion stimulus bill - Largest in U.S. History
Replies: 8
Views: 1429

Re: Deal reached on $2 Trillion stimulus bill - Largest in U.S. History

The stimulus bounce was yesterday. If people are expecting a 2 day rally, they are likely to be disappointed.
by Novine
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:55 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

So... I’ve read several posts in this thread with the them of “this is no big deal” or that we are overreacting. Im a doctor in New York. I work at a large tertiary care hospital. In the last 4 days the COVID census is up to about 20% of our beds. 2/3 these are ICU patients. Staff are being pulled ...
by Novine
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:32 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

This will be a catastrophic event, both economically and from a human health perspective. None of the news is good. People will die due to a lack of medical support and a dearth of proper medical equipment. It's not something any of has seen in our lifetimes. lol Literally just had a physical / blo...
by Novine
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?
Replies: 52
Views: 3891

Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Forum wouldn't let me answer DCB
by Novine
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:58 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

86% of deaths in italy are people over 70. In addition to being the oldest country in Europe, with 1/5 of the population heavy smokers, there's this: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/italy-coronavirus-fatality-rate-high-200323114405536.html "The numbers we have are not representative of the e...
by Novine
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:51 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nobel-prize-winner-shares-some-good-news-about-the-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-03-23 https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-turning-point-in-us-will-be-earlier-than-predicted-nobel-laureate-says/ the end is (maybe) near How's that working out in Italy? https://www...
by Novine
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:38 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

More like this is the normal course of a viral epidemic following a predictable bell curve. One month to inflection, two months to mostly over. Same thing happened in China. Same thing happened in South Korea. The forecasting models are as about as reliable as climate change models. Past results ar...
by Novine
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:59 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

In the absence of large scale testing, which we don't have in the US and won't have in the immediate future, how are these "go back to work" schemes supposed to work? I'm sure there are plenty of people who will go back to work out of desperation to put food on the family table. But how many who hav...
by Novine
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:09 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

When people question the exponential growth numbers they aren't doubting that exponential growth exists as a mathematical concept. They are questioning the extreme views that some exponential infection adherents are pushing that we will see millions of deaths in the US in a few months. Thanks. :bee...
by Novine
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

It's worth repeating because we are no where close to swine flu numbers and I hope we don't get there. Not to my knowledge. Are you expecting more than 12,469 deaths? If so, based on what data? I'm trying to suggest a more measured response is warranted based on the data. The 2009 swine flu pandemi...
by Novine
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Nope. In my opinion, it's sensationalism. The Worldometer is reporting 483 deaths as of this morning. It shows only 12 states with new deaths with most reporting 1. New York is reporting 43 which brings their total deaths to 157. That's good news. I think it's worth repeating. According to the CDC:...
by Novine
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:38 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: eerily quiet in the hood

Governor Cuomo discussed sending people back to work in his news conference today. He wasn't talking about a blanket "everybody back to work" policy. He discussed thinking about how to get the economy restarted by having folks who had had the virus and established immunity as those who could begin ...
by Novine
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:10 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Is there still a requirement for those receiving unemployment to be actively looking for a job? I seem to remember way back when I worked at a hardware store, people coming in for us to sign some form that they had checked for a job at our store. That's been waived in my state. I can't speak for ot...
by Novine
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:13 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

4% CFR seems quite high and they should focus on the Infection Fatality Rate, not the CFR. The last study I saw estimated an IRF of %0.2 - https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/. IRF is more important than CFR since a lot of people are asymptomatic and/or not tested. So if 75% of...
by Novine
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:56 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Actually why Germany is doing so well in their mortality rate is a great questions, I'm also interested in this. I also agree with whoever said the cases are vastly under reported in the U.S. So far there has been 33.5K confirmed Covid19 cases in the USA on record. How many have there really been t...
by Novine
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open
Replies: 155
Views: 13239

Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Don't forget that measures to "flatten the curve" also extend it. Over time, that will reduce the number of new cases and deaths each day, but it also extends out the amount of time that the economy is shut down. I personally think that's the right move but it also means that you have to account for...
by Novine
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open
Replies: 155
Views: 13239

Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Seeing reports that unemployment claims for the past week exceeded the highest amounts during the Great Recession should do wonders for the markets tomorrow. Each unfolding of the scope of the economic downturn is going to continue to drive the markets down. Anyone who thinks that all the downside h...
by Novine
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:43 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Looking at the number of deaths vs the number of cases in the USA is deceptive since , out of 32K cases in the US, though there have been only about 400 deaths to date, there are only 178 total recoveries so far, and almost 32K cases still labeled "active". A large percentage were just diagnosed in...
by Novine
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:38 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Comparing Italy to the US, Dr Fauci said “Early on they did not shut out as well the input of infections that originated in China and came to different parts of the world. One of the things that we did very early and very aggressively, the president put the travel restriction coming from China to t...
by Novine
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:23 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Klangfool, The number of deaths. We will definitely seem more cases as we do more testing. They're thousands of people who get the flu but don't die. Actually, millions of Americans get the flu each year and don't die. But this is how it's different - roughly 10% of Americans get the seasonal flu e...
by Novine
Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:48 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

KlangFool, I can't say with certainty one way or the other because the data does not support that it is worst than the flu. Could that change, Yes. For now, I don't believe it's worse than the flu. The actions and behavior of other countries have varied. I tend to believe that our earlier actions o...
by Novine
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:40 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Well, 3.4% is less than 4%, but on 3 March 2020 the Who Director-General remarked that [g]lobally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected. That's one difference between medical experts and some of the Boglehea...
by Novine
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 191006

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Let's say if turns out that this one ends up being twice more deadly than regular flu (0.4% instead of 0.2% for the flu), it's certainly bad. However, that's entirely different from saying fatality rate is 4% (current belief). I bet we will not be shutting down countries if we knew fatality rate wa...