Search found 180 matches

by Beensabu
Sun Oct 07, 2018 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flattening yield curve
Replies: 55
Views: 4776

Re: Flattening yield curve

The article I liked to argued that an inverted yield curve "predicts" a recession because it leads to specific behavior by lenders and borrowers that leads to a credit crunch and a drop in productive investment. That credit crunch is the result of lenders being forced to borrow at higher rates than...
by Beensabu
Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flattening yield curve
Replies: 55
Views: 4776

Re: Flattening yield curve

Something that causes a recession could also cause a flattening yield curve or yield curve inversion. That is why I asked you to provide your hypothesis for what this mysterious something is :P. The Recession Fairy? Something else? There seem to be other valid hypotheses that were presented earlier...
by Beensabu
Sat Oct 06, 2018 9:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help identify vine in backyard
Replies: 26
Views: 1471

Re: Help identify vine in backyard

Could be stinging nettle (if hairs on stem).

http://identifythatplant.com/three-memb ... le-family/

Could be false nettle (compare flowers against pics).

http://identifythatplant.com/another-nettle/
by Beensabu
Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 100
Views: 11976

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

Toons wrote:
Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:41 pm
"meaning of skew and kurtosis"

Say What?
Tail risk

Skewness

Kurtosis

Had to look it up.
by Beensabu
Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95068

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Ignoring Mr. Buffett's assertion about social security's continued viability in its present form (as that's a political discussion), we should note that the bolded statement is empirically false. We already have a generation with a lower standard of living than their parents; we may have more, depe...
by Beensabu
Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95068

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Could you do just as well by shorting the USD ? “For 240 years it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start. America’s golden goose of commerce and innovation will continue to lay more and larger eggs. America’s social security promises will be honored and perhap...
by Beensabu
Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone into Essential Oils?
Replies: 40
Views: 2572

Re: Anyone into Essential Oils?

Radha essential oils are inexpensive and good quality. You can find them on Amazon. And you don't need a fancy, expensive diffuser. Just look for the bestseller. It's for a reason. Do not attempt to clean the little metal circle thing in the bottom of any ultrasonic diffuser by wiping/touching it. Y...
by Beensabu
Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95068

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

If you tilt value in your portfolio I don’t see how you can ignore international at these valuations. They call it Home Country Bias for a reason. However, even Vanguard acknowledges that: our framework suggests that U.S. investors may have some quantitative justification for a home bias Would you ...
by Beensabu
Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95068

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I used the data available on Portfolio Visualizer for as far back as it would go, 1987-2017, to construct an efficient frontier using US stock market, US bond market, and Ex-US stock market. None of the portfolios on the efficient frontier contained even a smidgen of Ex-US stock exposure. https://w...
by Beensabu
Mon Sep 03, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95068

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

US only investors don’t care what others do. Global cap investors argue that everyone *should* invest as they do. I don't know about that. This was said way back on page 9 of this thread: 9 pages in. I have to ask. Has a single person changed their position having read or participated in this threa...
by Beensabu
Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's wrong with putting most of my money into two stocks: Alphabet and Amazon?
Replies: 79
Views: 3289

Re: What's wrong with putting most of my money into two stocks: Alphabet and Amazon?

You may want to take a look at the top 10 S&P 500 companies every year from 1980 to 2013: Visual History Of The S&P 500 These are the current top 10 constituents at this point in time: Apple Inc. Microsoft Corp Amazon.com Inc Facebook Inc A FB Berkshire Hathaway B JP Morgan Chase & Co Alphabet Inc C...
by Beensabu
Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95068

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

US only investors don’t care what others do. Global cap investors argue that everyone *should* invest as they do. I don't know about that. This was said way back on page 9 of this thread: 9 pages in. I have to ask. Has a single person changed their position having read or participated in this threa...
by Beensabu
Sat Sep 01, 2018 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95068

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Yes. That's essentially the same notion as the "past performance is not a predictor of future results" language we hear all the time. You wouldn't expect them to say something like "U.S. markets have had truly exceptional performance over the course of over one hundred years with no apparent signs ...
by Beensabu
Sat Sep 01, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95068

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Over the entirety of their existence, U.S. stocks have outperformed the rest of the world in total by a significant margin. And we're not talking about some tiny, financially speaking, country that managed to outperform with a single digit global market cap or lower. The Credit Suisse Yearbook abov...
by Beensabu
Sun Aug 26, 2018 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95068

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

:sharebeer I 2) Can't get reliable data on Int'l. Can't even find a PE ratio I trust. Let me be a bit more specific. It is indeed challenging to find PE/CAPE historical information about either entire markets (e.g. countries) or individual companies, notably from public sources. But it is easy to f...
by Beensabu
Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95068

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

http://i.imgur.com/trhhhkDl.jpg Now that's a great chart! It just doesn't seem reasonable to hold up what happened to Japan as a very likely near-term possibility for the US....The US just has so many advantages...And if the US equity markets weren't so expensive right now, I wouldn't even be consi...
by Beensabu
Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New 401(k)
Replies: 1
Views: 164

Re: New 401(k)

Welcome to the forum, Nwolf28! I recommend editing your original post to follow the format laid out here: Asking Portfolio Questions . Be sure to indicate all of the available funds in your 401k, including the expense ratio for each one. Please also write out the fund name, as opposed to just the ti...
by Beensabu
Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95068

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

VEA Stats: Top holdings include: Nestle, Toyota, Shell, BP P/E TTM = 14.6 SEC Yield = 2.4% As a “valuation” guy, what’s not to like? P.S. Does anyone know of a place (similar to Shillers website for SP500) to find historical data on “International stocks”... I'd also like to hear. I resort to annua...
by Beensabu
Sat Aug 18, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95068

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

VEA Stats: Top holdings include: Nestle, Toyota, Shell, BP P/E TTM = 14.6 SEC Yield = 2.4% As a “valuation” guy, what’s not to like? P.S. Does anyone know of a place (similar to Shillers website for SP500) to find historical data on “International stocks”... I'd also like to hear. I resort to annua...
by Beensabu
Sun Aug 05, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 26
Views: 2291

Re: Why international?

I looked at VGTSX (Vanguard Total International) vs VFINX (Vanguard S&P500) using the Backtest Portfolio tool and could not find any time period 5 years or longer where International performance exceeded domestic. In fact, International performance was outright lousy (relative to domestic) in all t...
by Beensabu
Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Financial upside / downside of marriage vs cohabiting
Replies: 74
Views: 6036

Re: Financial upside / downside of marriage vs cohabiting

Perhaps answering these questions for yourself might help:

What is the purpose of your net worth?

(A) To provide for yourself
(B) To provide for your family

If (B), who do you consider family?
by Beensabu
Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I may have understood why it's so hard to save and invest
Replies: 75
Views: 11316

Re: I may have understood why it's so hard to save and invest

airelleofmusic wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:46 am
1-month equivalent paycheck (1500$)
If you net $18k / year, it is actually incredibly impressive that you're managing to save 8% of that. That is not easy. No wonder it feels hard. Keep doing it anyway. You're awesome.
by Beensabu
Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements
Replies: 49
Views: 3982

Re: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements

If I understand this correctly, it is using a 30 year retirement window to compute SWR. Then seeing how that SWR is correlated (across different 30 year spans) to the portfolio performance at different durations. But, the SWR is always based on a 30 year retirement in this analysis. What I was aski...
by Beensabu
Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements
Replies: 49
Views: 3982

Re: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements

I think the same 10 years applies. Michael Kitces: Understanding Sequence Of Return Risk – Safe Withdrawal Rates, Bear Market Crashes, And Bad Decades Apparently, the highest correlation between safe withdrawal rates and real returns is 9-10 years into retirement. It's not a major drawdown that's sc...
by Beensabu
Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SEC yield vs YTD bond fund
Replies: 4
Views: 462

Re: SEC yield vs YTD bond fund

You may find the posts by PJW in this thread to be helpful.
by Beensabu
Sun Jul 08, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?
Replies: 46
Views: 5372

Re: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?

Not sure how expected returns affects AA, but I would think one should just stick to the AA in ones plan, unless you are a market timer. Expected return can be used to estimate the equity risk premium. An example using random numbers: If the nominal return of risk-free bonds is expected to be 2.5%,...
by Beensabu
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yield curve inversion
Replies: 48
Views: 4944

Re: yield curve inversion

Looking at this chart, it seems like almost every recession since 1954 was proceeded by the Fed Funds Rate increasing. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=kmLO FRED: Effective Federal Funds Rate Recession of: 1957-58: Tight monetary policy 1960-61: Another monetary recession 1969-70: ...
by Beensabu
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000
Replies: 48
Views: 6941

Re: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000

Well, how did that decision play out...75% vs 35% stock allocation from 2000 to 2018? I am guessing, but thinking stay-the-course won. Pretty well , actually. The 75/25 portfolio finally pulled ahead in 2017. :| Let's put "Pretty well" in perspective. In order to get a 0.5% more CAGR, the investor ...
by Beensabu
Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000
Replies: 48
Views: 6941

Re: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000

Ricola wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:29 am
Well, how did that decision play out...75% vs 35% stock allocation from 2000 to 2018? I am guessing, but thinking stay-the-course won.
Pretty well, actually.

The 75/25 portfolio finally pulled ahead in 2017.
by Beensabu
Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to Find Sandals with Adjustable, Velcro Straps for Older Lady
Replies: 18
Views: 1051

Re: Where to Find Sandals with Adjustable, Velcro Straps for Older Lady

Clark's usually has pretty comfortable sandals. Here are some not-so-sporty options with adjustable straps in the areas you have indicated: https://www.zappos.com/p/clarks-saylie-moon-black-leather/product/8991946/color/72 https://www.zappos.com/p/clarks-saylie-quartz-black-nubuck/product/9124439/co...
by Beensabu
Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.
Replies: 169
Views: 13171

Re: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.

Good question. Interesting answers. What about: 60/40 ?? 50/50 ?? j any insights on these scenarios? This is not an insight. However, IF you assume 3.5% real for stocks and 0.5% real for bonds, that would give you: 100/0 - 3.5% 90/10 - 3.2% 80/20 - 2.9% 70/30 - 2.6% 60/40 - 2.3% 50/50 - 2.0% 40/60 ...
by Beensabu
Sun Jul 01, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you learning or studying?
Replies: 99
Views: 7761

Re: What are you learning or studying?

Cognitive bias
by Beensabu
Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Please help find these shoes for an old lady
Replies: 32
Views: 3746

Re: Please help find these shoes for an old lady

This style of sandal, where a strip comes up from the toe spacer and the wide strap is higher up on the foot is called a "Ridley thong". That might help find a pair with the same feel and fit.
by Beensabu
Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mea culpa - market-timing with REITs - what to do now?
Replies: 25
Views: 3074

Re: Mea culpa - market-timing with REITs - what to do now?

What does VaR mean by Perhaps you could convert your post into a reflection on the asset allocation in your IPS? I'm not sure I understand what is meant by "reflection" or how I would do that. I cannot speak for VaR, but I took that to mean that you could discuss the asset allocation set out in you...
by Beensabu
Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mea culpa - market-timing with REITs - what to do now?
Replies: 25
Views: 3074

Re: Mea culpa - market-timing with REITs - what to do now?

If I'm being honest, I think that--at that time--I was imagining a crash: that's the market-timing attempt I refer to in the thread title. I wanted some diversification to an asset class that is supposedly not entirely correlated with stocks. Hooray for honesty! Please consider that diversification...
by Beensabu
Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mea culpa - market-timing with REITs - what to do now?
Replies: 25
Views: 3074

Re: Mea culpa - market-timing with REITs - what to do now?

converting half of each of our Roth IRAs from Vanguard TSM to Vanguard REIT in 2017 Can you explain your reasoning for doing this? Does it still make sense in spite of performance since you took that action? Or have you learned something new that you did not know at the time? Did you intend for thi...
by Beensabu
Tue May 08, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed dollar bond allocation
Replies: 6
Views: 987

Re: Fixed dollar bond allocation

I was thinking of something similar recently, but it was more of a glidepath, with fixed bond floor dollar amount resetting based on reaching new expenses-related milestones. The idea was: - Set early accumulation strategic AA. Rebalance every 1-3 years to maintain AA. - Once 10x expenses, reset to ...
by Beensabu
Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Having Child; Insurance Questions
Replies: 7
Views: 973

Re: Having Child; Insurance Questions

Since delivery should be November (first week), will all the charges hit before the end of the year you think? I'm hoping to contain all the costs in this year before we get the deductible slate wiped clean in January. I think it's based on the service date, so you should be good, but check with yo...
by Beensabu
Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Having Child; Insurance Questions
Replies: 7
Views: 973

Re: Having Child; Insurance Questions

Congratulations! 1. Your current deductible will apply to wife's medical costs through birth / hospital stay. You will have hit the new deductible by the time you add your child to the plan (check to see how soon after birth you must do that -- usually 30 days). 2. The OB charges are nothing compare...
by Beensabu
Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help with shared child being spoiled
Replies: 46
Views: 4426

Re: Help with shared child being spoiled

I’m assuming your link was in reply to my suggestion. When you use a shared activity as the reward instead of a material item, completing the behavior chart is a celebration of good behavior, not a transactional relationship. Behavior charts are often used in detrimental ways, and can be shaming. H...
by Beensabu
Wed Apr 11, 2018 11:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help with shared child being spoiled
Replies: 46
Views: 4426

Re: Help with shared child being spoiled

I'm just going to leave this here: The Risks of Rewards My kiddo went through this phase. I suggest engaging your child in the shopping experience. I chat with my kid non-stop while shopping. About what we need to get, what's next on the list, where do we find that, which aisle we're going down and ...
by Beensabu
Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m looking for a word...
Replies: 114
Views: 10626

Re: I’m looking for a word...

How about a confounding variable ? A confounding variable is an outside influence that changes the effect of a dependent and independent variable. This extraneous influence is used to influence the outcome of an experimental design. Simply, a confounding variable is an extra variable entered into th...
by Beensabu
Sun Apr 08, 2018 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thin/light but warm blanket for California winters?
Replies: 16
Views: 1031

Re: Thin/light but warm blanket for California winters?

Thin, light, warm, and machine-washable = "down alternative blanket" (not comforter). Easy, comfy, love it.
by Beensabu
Sat Mar 24, 2018 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m looking for a word...
Replies: 114
Views: 10626

Re: I’m looking for a word...

Emergent structures? Yes? Emergence . An emergent behavior or emergent property can appear when a number of simple entities (agents) operate in an environment, forming more complex behaviors as a collective. If emergence happens over disparate size scales, then the reason is usually a causal relati...
by Beensabu
Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good Modern Science Fiction
Replies: 315
Views: 44513

Re: Good Modern Science Fiction

There is some amazing speculative short fiction out there as well. Some online magazines to check out are Apex, Strange Horizons, Shimmer, Clarkesworld, and of course Asimov's. It's a great way to find new writers, or ones you might be unfamiliar with because they stay in the short story realm, and ...
by Beensabu
Sun Feb 18, 2018 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Income is an Appropriate Term
Replies: 8
Views: 1543

Re: Fixed Income is an Appropriate Term

Hi PJW, Yes, that does help very much. Thank you! I'm a bit embarrassed I didn't dig into more available info on the web first, but your post and the links you provided serve as a great jumping off point for increasing understanding. I found the info on these additional pages helpful as well: Price ...
by Beensabu
Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Income is an Appropriate Term
Replies: 8
Views: 1543

Re: Fixed Income is an Appropriate Term

Thank you for taking the time and expending the effort to educate others, PJW. I look forward to reading your response whenever you are able to get to it.
by Beensabu
Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Income is an Appropriate Term
Replies: 8
Views: 1543

Re: Fixed Income is an Appropriate Term

I would like to learn from you, if you're willing and I wasn't too irritating last time. My understanding is this: An individual bond annually pays out the coupon rate on the face/par value until it matures, and then you get the original amount back. So a 10-year bond of $10k with a 2% coupon pays $...