Search found 301 matches

by Beensabu
Mon May 25, 2020 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 149
Views: 9432

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

Perhaps it's just a weakness in market cap weighting, as a strategy itself. If one country starts doing well, you will inherently be purchasing more and more of that country's stocks on it's way up. But high and sell low?? :confused The S&P 500 and Total US Market Index Funds are market cap weighte...
by Beensabu
Sun May 24, 2020 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 17810

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

The current rates allow you to determine whether the known nominal amount or the extrapolated real amount at maturity is acceptable to you in light of the risk being taken. The risk is unexpected inflation. Please address inflation risk. LTPZ I apologize for being unclear. Please address inflation ...
by Beensabu
Sun May 24, 2020 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 17810

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Furthermore, the qualifier (" At current rates ") introduces its own issue. Namely, the idea portfolio allocation should depens on current rates relies upon a premise that speculating/market timing can be successful and/or prudent to attempt in bond markets. I don't grant that premise. Not so. The ...
by Beensabu
Sun May 24, 2020 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 17810

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Furthermore, the qualifier (" At current rates ") introduces its own issue. Namely, the idea portfolio allocation should depens on current rates relies upon a premise that speculating/market timing can be successful and/or prudent to attempt in bond markets. I don't grant that premise. Not so. The ...
by Beensabu
Sat May 23, 2020 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 17810

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

It also begs the question: if bonds aren't for safety, what are they for? Bonds are fixed income. Bonds are for income. Someone duration matching bond term to investment horizon knows exactly what they will have in nominal terms at maturity (or at time of consumption). This thread taught me that ba...
by Beensabu
Sat May 23, 2020 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 149
Views: 9432

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

Why stop at just total world stocks? It allows you to check off some of these: 1 Develop a workable plan 2 Invest early and often 3 Never bear too much or too little risk 4 Diversify 5 Never try to time the market 6 Use index funds when possible 7 Keep costs low 8 Minimize taxes 9 Invest with simpl...
by Beensabu
Sat May 23, 2020 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 17810

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

A loss averse investor would likely not be happy to witness the volatility of their "safe" bond allocation in real time and might give in to their behavioral biases. At current rates, the whole point of a bond allocation for an accumulator is to act a behavioral hedge. Long term bonds do not fulfil...
by Beensabu
Sat May 23, 2020 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 149
Views: 9432

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

Why stop at just total world stocks? It allows you to check off some of these: 1 Develop a workable plan 2 Invest early and often 3 Never bear too much or too little risk 4 Diversify 5 Never try to time the market 6 Use index funds when possible 7 Keep costs low 8 Minimize taxes 9 Invest with simpl...
by Beensabu
Sat May 23, 2020 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 17810

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Long-term bonds have higher expected returns than short-term bonds with similar levels of credit risk and reduce the volatility of the portfolio more than short-term bonds do. I am sorry. I can see that this has been true in the past when actually not rebalancing. When rebalancing, the returns have...
by Beensabu
Fri May 22, 2020 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 17810

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Now, here's the tricky part: how do you rebalance without taking interest rate risk if you buy a 30 year? You probably wouldn't be rebalancing from long-term bonds to short-term bonds, so rebalancing doesn't typically affect your average portfolio duration. So you would not be rebalancing from long...
by Beensabu
Fri May 22, 2020 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9372

Re: International market recovery

You still have foreign currency exposure, which is really tough given the Fed action. The USD is incredibly strong. Risks of international investing Currency risk. Investments denominated in foreign currencies decline in value for U.S. investors when the U.S. dollar rises in value against those cur...
by Beensabu
Thu May 21, 2020 1:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 17810

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Remember that you're not necessarily "hoping that rates don't go to zero". Even if rates stay exactly where they are you are still far better of with 1.15% on a 20 year bond than with 0.35% on a 5-year note. If you're holding to maturity, aren't you only better off for sure for 5 years? After that,...
by Beensabu
Wed May 20, 2020 11:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Make My Portfolio for me! :)
Replies: 14
Views: 1126

Re: Make My Portfolio for me! :)

Desired Asset Allocation: 70% Stocks 10% bonds 20%International This is 90% stocks / 10% bonds. Your stock allocation is split roughly 78% US / 22% Intl. What ETF's do you recommend I invest in regards to my asset allocation (70% Stocks 10% bonds 20%International)? Please see the Wiki: https://www....
by Beensabu
Wed May 20, 2020 10:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40723

Re: Why international?

I think the pie charts posted by 'Stef' are very telling (indicating market capitalization) over the past 100+ years. One can expect to pay a premium for growth. That chart is Figure 10 from the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2019 (Summary Edition) , under a section titled "Invest...
by Beensabu
Wed May 20, 2020 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 149
Views: 9432

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

Cool. So let's hear some well thought out argument on international, besides "buy the whole stack". Convince us that your claim is true. Dogma (a principle or set of principles laid down by an authority as incontrovertibly true) isn't necessarily a good thing. How did you establish that buying the ...
by Beensabu
Wed May 20, 2020 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40723

Re: Why international?

I think the pie charts posted by 'Stef' are very telling (indicating market capitalization) over the past 100+ years. One can expect to pay a premium for growth. That chart is Figure 10 from the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2019 (Summary Edition) , under a section titled "Invest...
by Beensabu
Tue May 19, 2020 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 149
Views: 9432

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

helloyou wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 6:03 am
I was wondering if the obvious geographic diversification benefit of the VT outweighs its lower performance over the SPY?
What do you think? Why? Can you be convinced to change your mind?

No? Do that.

Yes? Why? Can you be convinced to change your mind again?

No? Do that.

Yes? Uh oh.
by Beensabu
Mon May 18, 2020 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 20-year bond at nominal yield of 1.05%
Replies: 7
Views: 908

Re: The 20-year bond at nominal yield of 1.05%

Is this question due to the existence of that mind-boggling long bonds thread where we've apparently entered an alternate universe in which long-term treasury bonds are suddenly deemed "risk-free" and higher volatility is a desirable trait for your bond allocation "coz rebalancing"? :shock: Can ever...
by Beensabu
Sun May 17, 2020 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16052

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

:?: Here is another question: Where can one find historical data on international stocks? Like historical earnings and dividends. For U.S. stocks, we can get free data online from Robert Shiller going back to 1871. That data includes Price, Earnings, Dividends, CPI and 10-Year rate. We can calculat...
by Beensabu
Sat May 16, 2020 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9372

Re: International market recovery

Honestly, having read dozens and dozens of these kind of threads (maybe over 100 by now?) something has stood out to me. Now there are exceptions here , but: I notice a lot of the U.S. vs International preference often comes down to age demographics. Much of the older ages kind of take on the "Amer...
by Beensabu
Fri May 15, 2020 11:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40723

Re: Why international?

Then you should have cited investor shares and supplied the ticker of the Vanguard fund you are citing. I specifically cited the Admiral Index, and since you are citing a different fund and Vanguard lists only the Admiral Index (VTIAX) and an ETF (VXUS) you should indicate exactly what fund you are...
by Beensabu
Thu May 14, 2020 8:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40723

Re: Why international?

I wasn't cherry picking... I used the full life of the International fund from it's inception date 11/29/2010 to yesterday's market close... you are cherry picking. Are you going to cite fund performance from as time period prior to it's existence? Beware of data that is obviously out of sink with ...
by Beensabu
Thu May 14, 2020 12:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40723

Re: Why international?

I wasn't cherry picking... I used the full life of the International fund from it's inception date 11/29/2010 to yesterday's market close... you are cherry picking. Are you going to cite fund performance from as time period prior to it's existence? Beware of data that is obviously out of sink with ...
by Beensabu
Wed May 13, 2020 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Income lessons learned from Coronavirus?
Replies: 48
Views: 4251

Re: Fixed Income lessons learned from Coronavirus?

Are there any “lessons” you have learned or adjustments you have made? I learned that if yields go low enough for the expected real return to drop below zero, then there is no need to hold fixed income when in the accumulation phase and nowhere near retirement, other than a liquid cash emergency fu...
by Beensabu
Wed May 13, 2020 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Income lessons learned from Coronavirus?
Replies: 48
Views: 4251

Re: Fixed Income lessons learned from Coronavirus?

Are there any “lessons” you have learned or adjustments you have made? I learned that if yields go low enough for the expected real return to drop below zero, then there is no need to hold fixed income when in the accumulation phase and nowhere near retirement, other than a liquid cash emergency fu...
by Beensabu
Tue May 12, 2020 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63070

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

rockthisworld wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 2:43 pm
Will inflation be the ultimate game changer or a raise in interest rates or even a bubble bursting (debt bubble)?
These things will happen together, domino style, whenever they happen. Just in a different order.
by Beensabu
Mon May 04, 2020 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16052

Re: American exceptionalism

if that's true, then why have small caps done so poorly in comparison? yes, they are more risky because the expected reward is higher. but that hasn't panned out in reality. Small cap growth kept pace with large cap growth from 2005 until last fall. It actually left large cap growth in the dust if ...
by Beensabu
Sun May 03, 2020 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?
Replies: 110
Views: 7912

Re: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?

guyinlaw wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:10 pm
If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?
No.
guyinlaw wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:10 pm
IMO we are facing rolling lock-downs over the next 1-2 years.
If this situation continues, then UBI is on the way. They'll have no choice.
by Beensabu
Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What in the world is propping up this market?
Replies: 206
Views: 20748

Re: What in the world is propping up this market?

Why didn't it cause inflation in 08/09? Much of the stimulus is loans, not grants, so it is temporary. The portion that is not required to be paid back is just trying to boost aggregate demand to what it would have been had people not been laid off or furloughed. How is that inflationary (too much ...
by Beensabu
Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fun topic: options in/around Santa Barbara
Replies: 26
Views: 1462

Re: Fun topic: options in/around Santa Barbara

I would be looking in Carpinteria, about 10 minutes south of Santa Barbara. Zip code is 93013. My in-laws live there. Condos in Carp are currently $400k+. Nowhere in town is too far from the beach, though. It's a 15-20 min drive to downtown SB and 20 min drive to downtown Ventura in non-commute/jam...
by Beensabu
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fun topic: options in/around Santa Barbara
Replies: 26
Views: 1462

Re: Fun topic: options in/around Santa Barbera

Wannaretireearly wrote:Here is the challenge: on a small budget, let's say closer to 500k than 1M, where would you buy a property?
You could probably find a condo in SB for that budget. Not near the beach, though. Your best bet is to wait for the housing market to crash and try to grab a short sale. Good luck.
by Beensabu
Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Little Book of Investing 10th ed Figure 7.1
Replies: 5
Views: 449

Re: Little Book of Investing 10th ed Figure 7.1

The real return is the return after inflation is taken into account. The index investor ends up with $73,100 in 2016 dollars, but those dollars are worth less than they were in 1991, so the real return after taking inflation into account is $34,500. The average fund investor ends up with $55,500 EDI...
by Beensabu
Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?
Replies: 167
Views: 9513

Re: Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?

OP - please take a look at the annual real returns (rightmost side of page) found here and see if you notice a difference between pre-1982 numbers vs. 1982-2019:

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/Ne ... retSP.html

This is what they are trying to tell you.
by Beensabu
Thu Apr 02, 2020 6:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I apply for unemployment?
Replies: 14
Views: 1426

Re: Should I apply for unemployment?

Use your PTO first. You can apply for and receive unemployment benefits while furloughed. The whole point is to allow people to keep an income coming in while they still technically have their job and retain health insurance through their employer. Your employer is not expecting you to be able to be...
by Beensabu
Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:39 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190770

Re: POTUS just announced he'll be extending stay-at-home guidelines until April 30.

Some states are business as usual. Keep everything open, come down and vacation, go out to dinner, enjoy a concert. It’s madness! Which states are “business as usual”? The ones without any state-wide stay-at-home orders at this time: Alabama Arizona Arkansas Florida Georgia Iowa** Kentucky* Maine**...
by Beensabu
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:16 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190770

Re: POTUS just announced he'll be extending stay-at-home guidelines until April 30.

Some states are business as usual. Keep everything open, come down and vacation, go out to dinner, enjoy a concert. It’s madness! Which states are “business as usual”? The ones without any state-wide stay-at-home orders at this time: Alabama Arizona Arkansas Florida Georgia Iowa** Kentucky* Maine**...
by Beensabu
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:09 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190770

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Questions for anyone who might know the answer... (2) - (4) assume the answer to (1) is No. Is the answer to (1) No? (1) Can you get infected again once you get it? (2) Could doctors and nurses who have been infected, and recovered, from then on work with coronavirus patients without any danger? Wi...
by Beensabu
Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I guess 100% stocks is right for me
Replies: 53
Views: 4114

Re: I guess 100% stocks is right for me

What is happening has caused me to realize that 100% equities + emergency fund is the most rational path if you choose to invest in the stock market. If you are all in, and boom -30% (or more), you cannot sell. You must hold and wait no matter how low it goes, unless it is necessary to meet basic su...
by Beensabu
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20
Replies: 396
Views: 20326

Re: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20

JD2775 wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:38 pm
Can someone explain what this means, in layman's terms? I honestly don't follow these kinds of things...

Thanks in advance
The Federal Funds Rate is the rate at which banks borrow funds. By lowering it, they're trying to keep the credit flowing. Credit has been propping everything up.
by Beensabu
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296721

Re: Understanding the coronavirus and the market panic

If you can't go to work, you can't pay your bills. If you can't pay your bills, you go into debt (if you have access to credit), you lose your housing (or your house), your car, your XXX. How many people are living paycheck to paycheck? How many loans will go into default? How many unsecured loans w...
by Beensabu
Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Migrate from Active funds to Passive Vanguard funds/ETF
Replies: 4
Views: 310

Re: Migrate from Active funds to Passive Vanguard funds/ETF

mostly in Franklin Templeton mutual funds (4.5% load, ~0.85 er) :shock: If you edit your original post to follow the format found here, a very knowledgeable person will likely come to assist you based on the information you provide: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Asking_portfolio_questions Please ...
by Beensabu
Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trying To Get Into Investing For 1st Time
Replies: 8
Views: 484

Re: Trying To Get Into Investing For 1st Time

If you edit your original post to follow the format found here, a very knowledgeable person will likely come to assist you based on the information you provide:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Asking_ ... _questions
by Beensabu
Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296721

Re: Coronavirus and the market

cusetownusa wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:13 pm
Reading through all of these posts...is the general consensus to sell all stocks?
This question does not bode well for tomorrow.
by Beensabu
Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Can Low Retirement Savings Be Rationalized?"
Replies: 184
Views: 10118

Re: "Can Low Retirement Savings Be Rationalized?"

Watty wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:44 pm
Two people making $10 an hour would have a household income of $50K a year.
$10/hour full-time at 40 hours/week is 2080 hours per year, which is $20,800 gross income.

Two people making $10 an hour would have a gross household income of $41,600 a year, before withholdings.
by Beensabu
Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money you put in the stock market is NEVER lost?
Replies: 95
Views: 3453

Re: Money you put in the stock market is NEVER lost?

saintsfan342000 wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:38 pm
I am insane now.
I'm guessing you've never worked in customer service. This is perfectly normal. :twisted:
by Beensabu
Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money you put in the stock market is NEVER lost?
Replies: 95
Views: 3453

Re: Money you put in the stock market is NEVER lost?

I mean if you cannot control losing the $500 , that you'll be ahead by putting it back in with your next paycheck. I get it. You want to follow the first rule of never losing money. But... If you have $1000 in an investment fund/account and $500 cash, you have $1500. If you put that cash into the f...
by Beensabu
Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will bond yields ever be "high" again?
Replies: 64
Views: 4190

Re: Will bond yields ever be "high" again?

LOL - they've got nowhere to go now but down love... below zero is inevitable at this point
by Beensabu
Wed Jan 01, 2020 6:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is your 2019 YTD Spending
Replies: 36
Views: 2833

Re: What is your 2019 YTD Spending

ahahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaa

I'm going down the black hole of doom and will soon be forced to live within my now meager means. Along with the rest of most everybody.

Long live the death throes of capitalism!
by Beensabu
Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18803
Views: 2628714

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I seem to care most during exuberant times where I get the feeling that my rental income, lack of mortgage, and bond holdings are creating drag. LOL :P Feeling a little too stable, are we? "Oh man, I think I'm pretty much gonna be alright with everything when everyone else is totally freaking out. ...
by Beensabu
Wed Oct 02, 2019 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18803
Views: 2628714

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

On Mon Aug 08, 2011 1:30 pm DOW is down by over 550 points with a couple hours of trading left. DIJA market close 8/5/11 (Friday) was 11,444.61. DIJA market close 8/8/11 (Monday) was 10,809.85. That's a 5.55% drop between trading days. At the time of OP's post, it was a 4.81% drop. So what's a free...