Search found 163 matches

by Beensabu
Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 605
Views: 35560

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

VEA Stats: Top holdings include: Nestle, Toyota, Shell, BP P/E TTM = 14.6 SEC Yield = 2.4% As a “valuation” guy, what’s not to like? P.S. Does anyone know of a place (similar to Shillers website for SP500) to find historical data on “International stocks”... I'd also like to hear. I resort to annua...
by Beensabu
Sat Aug 18, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 605
Views: 35560

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

VEA Stats: Top holdings include: Nestle, Toyota, Shell, BP P/E TTM = 14.6 SEC Yield = 2.4% As a “valuation” guy, what’s not to like? P.S. Does anyone know of a place (similar to Shillers website for SP500) to find historical data on “International stocks”... I'd also like to hear. I resort to annua...
by Beensabu
Sun Aug 05, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 26
Views: 2106

Re: Why international?

I looked at VGTSX (Vanguard Total International) vs VFINX (Vanguard S&P500) using the Backtest Portfolio tool and could not find any time period 5 years or longer where International performance exceeded domestic. In fact, International performance was outright lousy (relative to domestic) in all t...
by Beensabu
Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Financial upside / downside of marriage vs cohabiting
Replies: 74
Views: 5809

Re: Financial upside / downside of marriage vs cohabiting

Perhaps answering these questions for yourself might help:

What is the purpose of your net worth?

(A) To provide for yourself
(B) To provide for your family

If (B), who do you consider family?
by Beensabu
Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I may have understood why it's so hard to save and invest
Replies: 75
Views: 11001

Re: I may have understood why it's so hard to save and invest

airelleofmusic wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:46 am
1-month equivalent paycheck (1500$)
If you net $18k / year, it is actually incredibly impressive that you're managing to save 8% of that. That is not easy. No wonder it feels hard. Keep doing it anyway. You're awesome.
by Beensabu
Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements
Replies: 49
Views: 3568

Re: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements

If I understand this correctly, it is using a 30 year retirement window to compute SWR. Then seeing how that SWR is correlated (across different 30 year spans) to the portfolio performance at different durations. But, the SWR is always based on a 30 year retirement in this analysis. What I was aski...
by Beensabu
Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements
Replies: 49
Views: 3568

Re: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements

I think the same 10 years applies. Michael Kitces: Understanding Sequence Of Return Risk – Safe Withdrawal Rates, Bear Market Crashes, And Bad Decades Apparently, the highest correlation between safe withdrawal rates and real returns is 9-10 years into retirement. It's not a major drawdown that's sc...
by Beensabu
Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SEC yield vs YTD bond fund
Replies: 4
Views: 414

Re: SEC yield vs YTD bond fund

You may find the posts by PJW in this thread to be helpful.
by Beensabu
Sun Jul 08, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?
Replies: 46
Views: 5273

Re: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?

Not sure how expected returns affects AA, but I would think one should just stick to the AA in ones plan, unless you are a market timer. Expected return can be used to estimate the equity risk premium. An example using random numbers: If the nominal return of risk-free bonds is expected to be 2.5%,...
by Beensabu
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yield curve inversion
Replies: 48
Views: 4731

Re: yield curve inversion

Looking at this chart, it seems like almost every recession since 1954 was proceeded by the Fed Funds Rate increasing. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=kmLO FRED: Effective Federal Funds Rate Recession of: 1957-58: Tight monetary policy 1960-61: Another monetary recession 1969-70: ...
by Beensabu
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000
Replies: 48
Views: 6710

Re: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000

Well, how did that decision play out...75% vs 35% stock allocation from 2000 to 2018? I am guessing, but thinking stay-the-course won. Pretty well , actually. The 75/25 portfolio finally pulled ahead in 2017. :| Let's put "Pretty well" in perspective. In order to get a 0.5% more CAGR, the investor ...
by Beensabu
Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000
Replies: 48
Views: 6710

Re: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000

Ricola wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:29 am
Well, how did that decision play out...75% vs 35% stock allocation from 2000 to 2018? I am guessing, but thinking stay-the-course won.
Pretty well, actually.

The 75/25 portfolio finally pulled ahead in 2017.
by Beensabu
Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to Find Sandals with Adjustable, Velcro Straps for Older Lady
Replies: 18
Views: 978

Re: Where to Find Sandals with Adjustable, Velcro Straps for Older Lady

Clark's usually has pretty comfortable sandals. Here are some not-so-sporty options with adjustable straps in the areas you have indicated: https://www.zappos.com/p/clarks-saylie-moon-black-leather/product/8991946/color/72 https://www.zappos.com/p/clarks-saylie-quartz-black-nubuck/product/9124439/co...
by Beensabu
Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.
Replies: 169
Views: 12673

Re: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.

Good question. Interesting answers. What about: 60/40 ?? 50/50 ?? j any insights on these scenarios? This is not an insight. However, IF you assume 3.5% real for stocks and 0.5% real for bonds, that would give you: 100/0 - 3.5% 90/10 - 3.2% 80/20 - 2.9% 70/30 - 2.6% 60/40 - 2.3% 50/50 - 2.0% 40/60 ...
by Beensabu
Sun Jul 01, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you learning or studying?
Replies: 99
Views: 7358

Re: What are you learning or studying?

Cognitive bias
by Beensabu
Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Please help find these shoes for an old lady
Replies: 32
Views: 3630

Re: Please help find these shoes for an old lady

This style of sandal, where a strip comes up from the toe spacer and the wide strap is higher up on the foot is called a "Ridley thong". That might help find a pair with the same feel and fit.
by Beensabu
Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mea culpa - market-timing with REITs - what to do now?
Replies: 25
Views: 2950

Re: Mea culpa - market-timing with REITs - what to do now?

What does VaR mean by Perhaps you could convert your post into a reflection on the asset allocation in your IPS? I'm not sure I understand what is meant by "reflection" or how I would do that. I cannot speak for VaR, but I took that to mean that you could discuss the asset allocation set out in you...
by Beensabu
Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mea culpa - market-timing with REITs - what to do now?
Replies: 25
Views: 2950

Re: Mea culpa - market-timing with REITs - what to do now?

If I'm being honest, I think that--at that time--I was imagining a crash: that's the market-timing attempt I refer to in the thread title. I wanted some diversification to an asset class that is supposedly not entirely correlated with stocks. Hooray for honesty! Please consider that diversification...
by Beensabu
Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mea culpa - market-timing with REITs - what to do now?
Replies: 25
Views: 2950

Re: Mea culpa - market-timing with REITs - what to do now?

converting half of each of our Roth IRAs from Vanguard TSM to Vanguard REIT in 2017 Can you explain your reasoning for doing this? Does it still make sense in spite of performance since you took that action? Or have you learned something new that you did not know at the time? Did you intend for thi...
by Beensabu
Tue May 08, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed dollar bond allocation
Replies: 6
Views: 960

Re: Fixed dollar bond allocation

I was thinking of something similar recently, but it was more of a glidepath, with fixed bond floor dollar amount resetting based on reaching new expenses-related milestones. The idea was: - Set early accumulation strategic AA. Rebalance every 1-3 years to maintain AA. - Once 10x expenses, reset to ...
by Beensabu
Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Having Child; Insurance Questions
Replies: 7
Views: 921

Re: Having Child; Insurance Questions

Since delivery should be November (first week), will all the charges hit before the end of the year you think? I'm hoping to contain all the costs in this year before we get the deductible slate wiped clean in January. I think it's based on the service date, so you should be good, but check with yo...
by Beensabu
Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Having Child; Insurance Questions
Replies: 7
Views: 921

Re: Having Child; Insurance Questions

Congratulations! 1. Your current deductible will apply to wife's medical costs through birth / hospital stay. You will have hit the new deductible by the time you add your child to the plan (check to see how soon after birth you must do that -- usually 30 days). 2. The OB charges are nothing compare...
by Beensabu
Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help with shared child being spoiled
Replies: 46
Views: 4366

Re: Help with shared child being spoiled

I’m assuming your link was in reply to my suggestion. When you use a shared activity as the reward instead of a material item, completing the behavior chart is a celebration of good behavior, not a transactional relationship. Behavior charts are often used in detrimental ways, and can be shaming. H...
by Beensabu
Wed Apr 11, 2018 11:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help with shared child being spoiled
Replies: 46
Views: 4366

Re: Help with shared child being spoiled

I'm just going to leave this here: The Risks of Rewards My kiddo went through this phase. I suggest engaging your child in the shopping experience. I chat with my kid non-stop while shopping. About what we need to get, what's next on the list, where do we find that, which aisle we're going down and ...
by Beensabu
Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m looking for a word...
Replies: 114
Views: 10213

Re: I’m looking for a word...

How about a confounding variable ? A confounding variable is an outside influence that changes the effect of a dependent and independent variable. This extraneous influence is used to influence the outcome of an experimental design. Simply, a confounding variable is an extra variable entered into th...
by Beensabu
Sun Apr 08, 2018 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thin/light but warm blanket for California winters?
Replies: 16
Views: 1003

Re: Thin/light but warm blanket for California winters?

Thin, light, warm, and machine-washable = "down alternative blanket" (not comforter). Easy, comfy, love it.
by Beensabu
Sat Mar 24, 2018 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m looking for a word...
Replies: 114
Views: 10213

Re: I’m looking for a word...

Emergent structures? Yes? Emergence . An emergent behavior or emergent property can appear when a number of simple entities (agents) operate in an environment, forming more complex behaviors as a collective. If emergence happens over disparate size scales, then the reason is usually a causal relati...
by Beensabu
Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good Modern Science Fiction
Replies: 304
Views: 41464

Re: Good Modern Science Fiction

There is some amazing speculative short fiction out there as well. Some online magazines to check out are Apex, Strange Horizons, Shimmer, Clarkesworld, and of course Asimov's. It's a great way to find new writers, or ones you might be unfamiliar with because they stay in the short story realm, and ...
by Beensabu
Sun Feb 18, 2018 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Income is an Appropriate Term
Replies: 8
Views: 1502

Re: Fixed Income is an Appropriate Term

Hi PJW, Yes, that does help very much. Thank you! I'm a bit embarrassed I didn't dig into more available info on the web first, but your post and the links you provided serve as a great jumping off point for increasing understanding. I found the info on these additional pages helpful as well: Price ...
by Beensabu
Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Income is an Appropriate Term
Replies: 8
Views: 1502

Re: Fixed Income is an Appropriate Term

Thank you for taking the time and expending the effort to educate others, PJW. I look forward to reading your response whenever you are able to get to it.
by Beensabu
Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Income is an Appropriate Term
Replies: 8
Views: 1502

Re: Fixed Income is an Appropriate Term

I would like to learn from you, if you're willing and I wasn't too irritating last time. My understanding is this: An individual bond annually pays out the coupon rate on the face/par value until it matures, and then you get the original amount back. So a 10-year bond of $10k with a 2% coupon pays $...
by Beensabu
Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another one bites the dust (Northpointe 5% checking account going away)
Replies: 5
Views: 876

Re: Another one bites the dust (Northpointe 5% checking account going away)

Maybe too many people abusing it with small automated purchases... What do you mean by that? I think perhaps he means too many people making tiny purchases to meet the required number of transactions in order to obtain that risk free interest rate on the max amount allowed. It cost them too much.
by Beensabu
Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Employer sponsored program expenses
Replies: 6
Views: 540

Re: Employer sponsored program expenses

Do you have a disclosure statement you could refer to?
jasonfilbert wrote:I don't understand if I am only paying the rep when contributions are made
Are you paying front-end loads? Which share class are your funds?
by Beensabu
Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Funds Mapping
Replies: 5
Views: 756

Re: Retirement Funds Mapping

That is comforting, but are there other options that would be better? I keep wondering if I can invest in precious metals like silver or gold. Thoughts? Thank you for your advice! There will undoubtedly be some option that would have been better in retrospect, decades down the road, but nobody can ...
by Beensabu
Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Re-balance... What's Next?
Replies: 23
Views: 3052

Re: Portfolio Re-balance... What's Next?

What is HCOL btw? High cost of living (area). That's why just the 20% down. It's enough to avoid private mortgage insurance (PMI), which is extra monthly money down the drain, when home prices are ridiculous but rents even more so. Is there something that I can seek and readily available or you can...
by Beensabu
Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Re-balance... What's Next?
Replies: 23
Views: 3052

Re: Portfolio Re-balance... What's Next?

time4life wrote:What is HCOL btw?
High cost of living (area). That's why just the 20% down. It's enough to avoid private mortgage insurance (PMI), which is extra monthly money down the drain, when home prices are ridiculous but rents even more so.
by Beensabu
Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Funds Mapping
Replies: 5
Views: 756

Re: Retirement Funds Mapping

Welcome to the forum! I don't know much, but it's not the end of the world. They're "mapping" you to the most similar available fund. Here's what I found on those funds: SSga Global Balanced Fund: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://docs.retirementpartner.com/fundov/ALASKA_9...
by Beensabu
Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:11 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Thank You and Apologies
Replies: 1
Views: 651

Thank You and Apologies

Dear Bogleheads, Thank you very much. I have been very resistant to this concept, but have finally understood it to be true: minimizing costs and consistently saving as much as possible over as much time as possible is all you need to do. Which is great, because that's all you really have control ov...
by Beensabu
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pairing REITs With Long-Term Treasuries
Replies: 11
Views: 535

Re: Pairing REITs With Long-Term Treasuries

Pending your telling us what decent and moderate mean, you should look at the way your portfolio works together as a whole, not isolated components representing only 20% of it. PJW Right, sorry. So REITs and equities as inflation protection. International equity exposure in small/mid and EM, as the...
by Beensabu
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pairing REITs With Long-Term Treasuries
Replies: 11
Views: 535

Re: Pairing REITs With Long-Term Treasuries

Any investment-grade bonds will diminish the risk and expected return of a REIT portfolio. What are you trying to achieve? PJW Decent return with moderate risk in a diversified long term portfolio... I guess I might as well post the allocation I have in mind to provide context: US Stock Market 20.0...
by Beensabu
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pairing REITs With Long-Term Treasuries
Replies: 11
Views: 535

Re: Pairing REITs With Long-Term Treasuries

It sounds.... Not the best. Okay. Why? Just to be clear, the link is not to the 50/50 portfolio I have in mind. That would have 10% REIT and 10% LTs, with remaining bond allocation as Total Bond. The link is just an example of how the treasuries may moderate the risk of including REITs in a portfol...
by Beensabu
Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pairing REITs With Long-Term Treasuries
Replies: 11
Views: 535

Pairing REITs With Long-Term Treasuries

What do you think about pairing a REIT index fund with a long-term treasury fund? For example, if you had 10% REITs, then you'd have 10% long-term treasuries. I've been playing around trying to come up with a 50/50 portfolio that may still have (read has had) a decent return for an accumulation peri...
by Beensabu
Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Re-balance... What's Next?
Replies: 23
Views: 3052

Re: Portfolio Re-balance... What's Next?

Bump. OP's whole portfolio current allocation: 401k TSP G Fund (8.3%) F Fund (6.3%) C Fund (56.3%) S Fund (14%) I Fund (1.5%) Roth IRA VANGUARD FTSE ALL WORLD EX US SMALL CAP ETF (VSS) ER .13% (1.9%) VANGUARD TOTAL INTL STOCK INDEX FUND ETF (VXUS) ER .11% (11.4%) ~ 85 stock / 15 bond Equities ~ 83 U...
by Beensabu
Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2018 Account Tune Up
Replies: 1
Views: 249

Re: 2018 Account Tune Up

Bump.
by Beensabu
Tue Jan 09, 2018 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newbie -Is IRA or Roth IRA a good option considering our income?
Replies: 5
Views: 546

Re: Newbie -Is IRA or Roth IRA a good option considering our income?

Is $200k your modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) or gross income? That will make a difference.
by Beensabu
Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: This is clearest picture of why diversifying is priority!
Replies: 29
Views: 6017

Re: This is clearest picture of why diversifying is priority!

One thing I cannot yet understand is why everyone calls risk to fluctuation. Isn't that totally unrelated when talking about entire markets with a strategy of buy and hold ? Why is standard deviation most commonly referenced as a measure of investment risk? Probably because it's the easiest to unde...
by Beensabu
Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: This is clearest picture of why diversifying is priority!
Replies: 29
Views: 6017

Re: This is clearest picture of why diversifying is priority!

John Bogle talked about reversion to the mean (RTM) in some of his speeches. If you accept this theory for an asset class, then diversification makes sense and is something that can be utilized for greater returns. This works best for people who regularly invest and would work by allocating more ne...