Search found 325 matches

by robertmcd
Tue Mar 26, 2019 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 1416
Views: 76696

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Thank you for this thread hedgefundie. I have been looking into taking a leveraged 2 yr treasury position recently, and I am mad I missed this recent drop in yields because I was not comfortable enough with futures yet. I would like to see some work done on a portfolio utilizing 2 yr treasuries lev...
by robertmcd
Tue Mar 26, 2019 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 1416
Views: 76696

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Thank you for this thread hedgefundie. I have been looking into taking a leveraged 2 yr treasury position recently, and I am mad I missed this recent drop in yields because I was not comfortable enough with futures yet. I would like to see some work done on a portfolio utilizing 2 yr treasuries leve...
by robertmcd
Mon Mar 25, 2019 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any believers in the dollar milkshake theory?
Replies: 44
Views: 5802

Re: Any believers in the dollar milkshake theory?

The global economy is on life support in the form of negative real interest rates. If interest rates don't continue their downward trend and rates rise quickly, it will be due to currency debasement. We will never grow our way into the historical average for interest rates/fed funds rate.
by robertmcd
Mon Mar 25, 2019 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Bond Yields?
Replies: 20
Views: 1648

Re: Negative Bond Yields?

Dependent on currency exchange rates. Hedged to USD those german and japanese bonds may yield more than US treasuries. You could have asked - Why would a Japanese investor want to buy negative yielding US debt? If after accounting for currency hedging the yield is still negative, you may still want ...
by robertmcd
Mon Mar 25, 2019 10:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is the best gas credit cards hands down?
Replies: 58
Views: 2402

Re: What is the best gas credit cards hands down?

BOA cash rewards 5.25% if you have preferred rewards
by robertmcd
Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion
Replies: 94
Views: 6759

Re: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion

Stocks have a long way to catch down to bonds if bonds are correct.
by robertmcd
Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion
Replies: 94
Views: 6759

Re: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion

I don't agree that the inversion is an actionable event The stock and bond markets are disagreeing heartily with you. Investors today realize, I hope, what a gift they were handed in 2008/09 by Bernanke et al. QE and below 0 interest rates were NOT "business as usual" in the fight against downturns...
by robertmcd
Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the effect of negative interest rates?
Replies: 28
Views: 1746

Re: What will be the effect of negative interest rates?

Just go all in on stocks and treasury bonds like the Fed intends. As for those holding cash, the beatings will continue indefinitely until further notice.
by robertmcd
Wed Mar 20, 2019 5:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any reason I shouldn't shorten duration on my treasury bonds?
Replies: 20
Views: 1192

Re: Any reason I shouldn't shorten duration on my treasury bonds?

I think you should use solely treasury bonds and base your duration off of equity percentage based on historical data. Something like: 1-3 yr treasuries (20-40% stock) 3-10 yr (40-60 % stock) 10-30 yr (60-80% stock) long term strips ~ 25 yr duration - EDV is a great way to hold them (greater than 80...
by robertmcd
Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What do you use for your bond exposure?
Replies: 47
Views: 3126

Re: What do you use for your bond exposure?

I use 50/50 bond index fund and stable value in MegaCorp's 401(k). Does that help? A good stable value fund can be an 'no-brainer' when it comes to fixed income. And then there is this article from Bloomberg which states that riskier bonds outperform treasuries and gilts https://www.bloomberg.com/o...
by robertmcd
Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Exposure to German Markets
Replies: 17
Views: 919

Re: Exposure to German Markets

Most people here have exposure to Germany thru their international stock market funds. When it comes to stocks currency risk tends to be dwarfed by the equity risk, so most would advocate not hedging international stock exposure. That being said, I would not hold a large percentage of a single count...
by robertmcd
Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Large CD Question
Replies: 7
Views: 949

Re: Large CD Question

250k per institution for single person

For married couple you have:

250k husband
250k wife
500k joint

You can get more coverage than these by designating beneficiaries for 250k each. Ally allows this very easily.

https://www.ally.com/bank/fdic/
by robertmcd
Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market yield over 2.5%
Replies: 198
Views: 32812

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market yield over 2.5%

As Doc points out, if you want some fixed income that is likely to increase in value in a flight-to-quality scenario, as we saw big time in late 2008, then longer-term Treasuries are your friend (and the longer term, the better for this purpose). From the bear perspective the longer term is arguabl...
by robertmcd
Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market yield over 2.5%
Replies: 198
Views: 32812

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market yield over 2.5%

I wonder if we have a recession on the horizon. The G fund is only 2.625% (for February 2019), dropping steadily from 3.125% since November 2018, and is based on the average yield of all U.S. Treasury securities with 4 or more years to maturity. Source: https://www.tspfolio.com/tspgfundinterestrate...
by robertmcd
Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto Exchange goes bankrupt after owner dies with only password
Replies: 90
Views: 10634

Re: Crypto Exchange goes bankrupt after owner dies with only password

Crypto currencies are the fiat currencies of fiat currencies. If these doomsday types wanted to actually protect their wealth in the event of a fiat collapse, they should own physical gold. Which they will be able to trade with impunity because no organized group of people will notice they're doing...
by robertmcd
Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Free Southwest Companion Pass for 2019
Replies: 57
Views: 4670

Re: Free Southwest Companion Pass for 2019

Not as good of a deal as the other options for a CP pass. Do your research on reddit/churning You can get a 50k bonus using an inflight link (posted online) for a priority, premier, or plus personal card. And you can get a 60k bonus for the SW business premier card. 110k points and CP pass for 2019...
by robertmcd
Tue Feb 05, 2019 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto Exchange goes bankrupt after owner dies with only password
Replies: 90
Views: 10634

Re: Crypto Exchange goes bankrupt after owner dies with only password

Crypto currencies are the fiat currencies of fiat currencies. If these doomsday types wanted to actually protect their wealth in the event of a fiat collapse, they should own physical gold.
by robertmcd
Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally Banking 1% extra back up to $1,000 on new money deposited
Replies: 630
Views: 68033

Re: Ally Banking 1% extra back up to $1,000 on new money deposited

Boy, I wonder how much cash Ally is losing on this promo. I'm sure they wanted people to keep their money in there or get loans and other upsell opportunities, but the target audience was probably severely missed here.. Exactly what I was just thinking as I immediately transferred the balance out t...
by robertmcd
Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Free Southwest Companion Pass for 2019
Replies: 57
Views: 4670

Re: Free Southwest Companion Pass for 2019

Here is a screenshot of the terms

https://imgur.com/a/daQmZ3i
by robertmcd
Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Free Southwest Companion Pass for 2019
Replies: 57
Views: 4670

Re: Free Southwest Companion Pass for 2019

Those inflight links have expired. These are the new ones for 50k/$2k Updated SW 50k in-flight links Rapid Rewards®Plus Credit Card https://applynow.chase.com/FlexAppWeb/renderApp.do?CELL=6T8J&SPID=FVP9&PROMO=DF01 Rapid RewardsPriority Credit Card https://applynow.chase.com/FlexAppWeb/renderApp.do?C...
by robertmcd
Tue Feb 05, 2019 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally Banking 1% extra back up to $1,000 on new money deposited
Replies: 630
Views: 68033

Re: Ally Banking 1% extra back up to $1,000 on new money deposited

Where are folks moving their funds after the payout? Ally has a 2.85/14 month CD available until the end of the month. (https://www.ally.com/learn/selectcd-14m/) Anything else out there thats better? Yes, NASA Federal Credit Union 15 month CD @ 3.20% https://www.depositaccounts.com/banks/nasa-feder...
by robertmcd
Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Free Southwest Companion Pass for 2019
Replies: 57
Views: 4670

Re: Free Southwest Companion Pass for 2019

And FYI meeting the min spend on Chase Visa is very easy. Multiple bank account and CD funding options that code as a purchase.
by robertmcd
Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International bonds
Replies: 60
Views: 4726

Re: International bonds

I agree but that is what the market currently expects/has priced in. I wish there was a AAA/AA+ global bond fund that was cheap. Essentially a global "flight to safety" bond fund. I only own US treasury bonds for this reason.
by robertmcd
Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International bonds
Replies: 60
Views: 4726

Re: International bonds

Saying US bonds don’t return more than international is just silly. At some point you need to acknowledge that interest rates are lower in Europe and other developed countries and that rates are higher in the US for the same risk level bonds. So that tells us that rates have less room to move downw...
by robertmcd
Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: You Invest by JP Morgan Chase
Replies: 128
Views: 15337

Re: You Invest by JP Morgan Chase

I've heard others have the same issue too. They opened Chase Sapphire Banking and deposited 75k, and transferred the funds to You Invest to buy VMMXX. They got charged $25 for not meeting the minimum balance requirement. And when they asked in the secure message, the rep replied: "Qualifying person...
by robertmcd
Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: “The Failure Of Factor Investing Was Predictable”
Replies: 15
Views: 2176

Re: Larry Swedroe: “The Failure Of Factor Investing Was Predictable”

Personally I think factor investing is dead, mainly due to the current state of the "market". There is no price discovery, no fundamentals, no nothing. It is simply supply and demand for stocks based on liquidity that central banks conjure out of thin air. At this point stocks and bonds are nothing ...
by robertmcd
Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit Card in Auto-pay affecting Credit Score
Replies: 31
Views: 1890

Re: Credit Card in Auto-pay affecting Credit Score

Since it resets every statement, you don't have to worry about it unless you are applying for a loan in which case you make sure to pay everything down to 0 before the statements close. Your score does not care about your utilization 1 month ago, just your most recent statement balances.
by robertmcd
Fri Jan 25, 2019 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to own Vanguard ETFs over Admiral shares?
Replies: 94
Views: 8002

Re: Reasons to own Vanguard ETFs over Admiral shares?

Yes you will be out of the market temporarily in that sense.
by robertmcd
Fri Jan 25, 2019 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond funds to hold in 401k in high tax states
Replies: 7
Views: 408

Re: Bond funds to hold in 401k in high tax states

Yes you could in theory buy intermediate term corporate bond fund in 401k. And then intermediate treasuries or municipals in taxable. Keep in mind municipals may earn higher effective yield then treasuries in taxable, but that can be due to credit risk in addition to the tax advantage.
by robertmcd
Fri Jan 25, 2019 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I asking for trouble by trading like this at Vanguard
Replies: 6
Views: 1094

Re: Am I asking for trouble by trading like this at Vanguard

Flyer24 wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 11:02 am
Why would it execute at a lower price? It maintains a $1 price.
Exactly. That's why I thought this was fine. I was wanting to make sure I wasn't missing something.
by robertmcd
Fri Jan 25, 2019 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I asking for trouble by trading like this at Vanguard
Replies: 6
Views: 1094

Am I asking for trouble by trading like this at Vanguard

I decided I wanted to move my substantial VMMXX (prime money market) holding into VGSH today. So I sold all my shares of VMMXX, and bought VGSH. The money from my VMMXX sale will not hit my settlement fund until T+1, but VGSH will not settle until T+2. So the only way this would be an issue is if my...
by robertmcd
Wed Jan 23, 2019 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses
Replies: 1608
Views: 255161

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses

Does anyone know if I can transfer VMMXX from vanguard to merill edge? And once it is in merrill edge can I sell it without a commission or not?
by robertmcd
Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Substitute for EDV
Replies: 5
Views: 302

Re: Substitute for EDV

Other than EDV my recommendation would be to use leverage thru the futures market to increase the effective duration. You can target any portion of the yield curve you like.
by robertmcd
Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Substitute for EDV
Replies: 5
Views: 302

Re: Substitute for EDV

Nope EDV is the best.
by robertmcd
Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF "Guarantee"
Replies: 39
Views: 2604

Re: Gold ETF "Guarantee"

In my opinion in any crisis where gold performs incredibly well, not just decent, delivery contracts won't be worth the paper they are printed on.
by robertmcd
Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Going from 100-0 to 90-10 with bonds in taxable account
Replies: 15
Views: 1078

Re: Going from 100-0 to 90-10 with bonds in taxable account

I wouldn't want to count on long term new york municipal bonds doing well when stocks are falling. at 90% stock I would own VGLT or EDV (5% or 10%) depending on if you have an emergency fund already (CD's, cash, short term treasuries) and take the hit on taxes. Ideally you would own one of these in ...
by robertmcd
Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 114
Views: 11572

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

Were you stopped and searched at the border crossing for valuables, e.g. U.S. Dollars, Euros, Gold, diamonds. Was cash and valuables confiscated at the border? :?: I'm wondering if people could get their gold out of the country. Sure, if you leave a portion of the roll behind in bribes. Or just sti...
by robertmcd
Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 114
Views: 11572

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

Ok, so let's say you have your guns, ammo, and food and you get through the times of economic turmoil. What are you going to do on the other side of the turmoil to rebuild your life? The digital 1's and 0's that stored your Vanguard account information are probably all gone at that point. I have fa...
by robertmcd
Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses
Replies: 1608
Views: 255161

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses

MINT and NEAR fall more in line with short term (1-3 yr) than ultra short (<1 yr) in my opinion, but they are ok. Riskier for sure and they have kinda high ER's.
by robertmcd
Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Allocation
Replies: 15
Views: 1338

Re: Bond Allocation

At an 80% stock allocation, the only other option I would consider would be adding longer term treasuries. I definitely would not be adding corporate bonds when you have the G fund though. It is the biggest free lunch in investing there is.
by robertmcd
Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses
Replies: 1608
Views: 255161

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses

Quick question regarding Ally Invest. I believe I read here that there bonus is a headache. If one already has a ally bank account maybe it might make a transfer easier to make. I have a oversized emergency account with ally bank and was hoping to take advantage of the ally invest bonus. Would ther...
by robertmcd
Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses
Replies: 1608
Views: 255161

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses

https://www.ally.com/go/invest/promotion.html?CP=ppc-google-bkws-invest-ally-invest-bonus-bmm&d=c&k=%2Bally%20%2Binvest%20%2Bbonus&m=b&c=1366537390&ad=265635613618&ex=&geo=1026661&nt=g&source=Paid-Search-Web&gclid=Cj0KCQiA7IDiBRCLARIsABIPohj6wiNA-blrFGOeRjVYfZWP4a6VCi5IfMP1NyCkA-mlCdiLRxhOoi0aAnCdEA...
by robertmcd
Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 100k funds from closed ally cd needs a home.
Replies: 13
Views: 1469

Re: 100k funds from closed ally cd needs a home.

am I think that short term treasuries (1-3 yrs) are a great hedge against equities right now if you want day to day liquidity and the ability to rebalance. Semi-liquid - brokered CD's in that same range (can sell these and buy equities if something major happens, you won't get as much of an NAV gain...
by robertmcd
Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When would you stop being a Boglehead?
Replies: 95
Views: 7582

Re: When would you stop being a Boglehead?

If I won 250 million tomorrow, I would probably find an advisor that would manage it for me. Mainly focusing on fixed income strategy. For example buckingham asset management's blended rate at 15 million is around .44%. And you don't pay any expense ratios on corporate, municipal, treasury bonds, or...
by robertmcd
Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 100k funds from closed ally cd needs a home.
Replies: 13
Views: 1469

Re: 100k funds from closed ally cd needs a home.

Did you get an email saying you were on track to receive a bonus based on your 100k? Just asking cause I got one back in November but haven't since? No, nothing recent. But I had email correspondence with customer service that confirmed that I was ok closing the cd today and that I would still get ...
by robertmcd
Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 100k funds from closed ally cd needs a home.
Replies: 13
Views: 1469

Re: 100k funds from closed ally cd needs a home.

Did you get an email saying you were on track to receive a bonus based on your 100k? Just asking cause I got one back in November but haven't since?
by robertmcd
Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When do brokered CD rates typically increase?
Replies: 9
Views: 1169

Re: When do brokered CD rates typically increase?

Just looked again today. 2 yr down to 2.75% 3 yr down to 3% 5 yr down to 3.2% I am starting to think there is a large opportunity in buying and selling brokered CD's when rates drop, before the banks lower them, only to sell them on the secondary market for a premium. I have noticed they are very be...
by robertmcd
Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Riskier 5 Year Investment Reco?
Replies: 5
Views: 376

Re: Riskier 5 Year Investment Reco?

Direct CD
by robertmcd
Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Super Short Term Bond Risks
Replies: 16
Views: 1630

Re: Super Short Term Bond Risks

Also in the event of a liquidity crunch or bear market, these funds will likely lose money and/or trade with larger spreads. I think these funds are equivalent to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller, and shouldn't be counted on to rebalance into stocks like you can with an all treasury fund...