I listen to James Shack too. He would gain to be shorter but he is ok.
Most of the informations are in bogleheads already.
Search found 19 matches
- Thu Oct 31, 2024 5:07 am
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: What are good podcast or youtube channels for UK investors
- Replies: 16
- Views: 1402
- Sun Oct 27, 2024 4:52 am
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: My portfolio: seeking advice (Turkey)
- Replies: 3
- Views: 1142
Re: My portfolio: seeking advice (Turkey)
You need to define your time horizon. Can you tolerate that your portfolio drops significantly in value within 5 years? If not, add bonds now.
I don't know your future expenses, the size of your portfolio and I have absolutely no clue what the market will do within 5 years. No one does.
I don't know your future expenses, the size of your portfolio and I have absolutely no clue what the market will do within 5 years. No one does.
- Sun Oct 27, 2024 3:53 am
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: My portfolio: seeking advice (Turkey)
- Replies: 3
- Views: 1142
Re: My portfolio: seeking advice (Turkey)
[*] Does it make sense not to hold any bonds? This topic is very divisive but as far as I understand from reading a couple threads in this forum and around the web A: What is your time horizon for withdrawal? If it's below very long-term, like < 20 years I would add at least 10% in bonds. Also would you liquidate your portfolio if your assets drop by -40%? -70%? If yes, add bonds. The % depends on your risk tolerance and the size of the portfolio vs your future expenses. If your withdrawal rate is very low (< 1%) being 100% in stock could work. This is a low probability event, but equities might be in a bear market for an extended period of time. If your horizon is not long, the market might not recover by the time you start withdrawing ...
- Sat Oct 05, 2024 12:50 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Shiller PE now near 37 - 3rd highest ever
- Replies: 249
- Views: 24597
Re: S&P 500 overvalued??
I've noticed that many in the forum recommend a buy-and-hold strategy and letting time do its work. However, with the Shiller P/E ratio now above 36 (which has only happened about 10% of the time in history), should I be concerned about valuations? I'd appreciate hearing other opinions on this. I still have some uninvested cash and am unsure whether to invest it right now. Should I also consider liquidating any of my current holdings? Currently, I have an 80/20 portfolio. On a different note, Chinese stocks seem very cheap compared to U.S. stocks—the P/E for the broad market index CSI 300 is only 13. I know there are market risks involved. Does anyone have any thoughts or research they'd be willing to share? Bogleheads do buy and hold when ...
- Thu Oct 03, 2024 4:41 pm
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: First time ETF investor in France - but are there taxes on purchases?
- Replies: 7
- Views: 1815
Re: First time ETF investor in France - but are there taxes on purchases?
There is no tax or stamp duty when you purchase ETFs in France. You should check for the fees charged by the platform or ETF itself before buying it though.
From the AMF (French "SEC"):
"L'investissement dans des ETF entraîne plusieurs types de frais :
des frais de courtage, prélevés lors de l'achat et de la vente de parts,
des droits de garde,
des frais de gestion de l'ETF déduits des performances de l'ETF ".
https://www.amf-france.org/fr/espace-ep ... ackers-etf
Translation:
- Broker fees.
- Account holding fees.
- Management fees.
Check with the broker. You pay taxes when you sell (and gain).
From the AMF (French "SEC"):
"L'investissement dans des ETF entraîne plusieurs types de frais :
des frais de courtage, prélevés lors de l'achat et de la vente de parts,
des droits de garde,
des frais de gestion de l'ETF déduits des performances de l'ETF ".
https://www.amf-france.org/fr/espace-ep ... ackers-etf
Translation:
- Broker fees.
- Account holding fees.
- Management fees.
Check with the broker. You pay taxes when you sell (and gain).
- Sun Sep 29, 2024 7:55 am
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: [UK] Can I retire yet at 45, check
- Replies: 18
- Views: 3174
Re: [UK] Can I retire yet at 45, check
1) Pension and ISA: I would ask for clarity on the % of AA, so that you have a full view of your total investments. Same with your single stock investments, I would split the % of Equity into: i) indexes and ii) single stock investments, to assess your AA. Your human capital is in tech, so avoiding exposure to tech in single stocks and to single stocks in general is always welcome when you get closer to retirement. 2) Paying down your mortgage is fine, though it's a signal about your risk tolerance as well i.e. yours seems moderate, or slightly low. There is nothing wrong with that, and it's consistent with your AA as of today. 3) With regard to your children: - One option is to separate the £800k future expenses from your portfolio, since ...
- Sun Sep 29, 2024 3:22 am
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: Retirement plan / FIRE - [UK - France]
- Replies: 23
- Views: 3771
Re: Retirement plan / FIRE - [UK - France]
The reason why I did not "ask" to contribute to years before I came to the UK is because I assume that contributions can start only from the tax year in which you arrive. To a lesser extend, I also want to avoid any interference or confusion between my rights in France and in the UK, in relation to pension authorities.
The french pension is more advantageous as of today, though the advantages are not necessarily sustainable long term.
The french pension is more advantageous as of today, though the advantages are not necessarily sustainable long term.
- Sun Sep 29, 2024 1:21 am
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: [UK] Can I retire yet at 45, check
- Replies: 18
- Views: 3174
Re: [UK] Can I retire yet at 45, check
Your withdrawal rate is very low, at 1.9%, based on your productive assets of £4.2m, as your home is excluded from the base. If your £80k annual expenses are net of taxes, the gross rate could be around 2.7% / 3% depending on tax rates, which is still low. Your time horizon if very long and you could face higher expenses with your kids, but as of today I'd say you're absolutely fine to retire. A few points: 1) Yearly expenses: -What would be your annnual expenses, including taxes on your investments when you retire? Same as today? -Do you plan to finance your kids'uni? That would increase your expenses for a few years. 2) Asset allocation: -Have you established a formal desired Asset Allocation? As of today you are: 30% Real Estate 28% to 4 ...
- Sat Sep 28, 2024 4:39 am
- Forum: Spain
- Topic: First time investor
- Replies: 3
- Views: 1553
Re: First time investor
A few things: 1) Is your 900,000 target nominal? For retirement, I'd use real targets (post inflation). Real is what matters for spending. 2) Using historical rates of returns, and zero capital, I don't get to your 900,000 target, neither nominal or real. A nominal compound rate of 9% over 22 years leads to 630,000. A Real rate of 6% leads to 433,000. I maybe wrong because I do not include your increase in saving rate of 4%/year in my calculations. Does that come from your expected pay raises? Do you have a specific skill that gives you confidence you can get that consistently over 22 years? Or a more frugal lifestyle? 2) Having emerging markets in an ETF is not extra work, because it is in the composition of the MSCI World index. It's ...
- Sat Sep 28, 2024 3:53 am
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: Retirement plan / FIRE - [UK - France]
- Replies: 23
- Views: 3771
Re: Retirement plan / FIRE - [UK - France]
Update from calls with pension departments. UK state pension : I was able to buy one year in which there was a gap in my contributions (> 11 months missing) for £221. This should be credited on my account within 8 weeks. I spent less than 15 minutes on the phone for everything. I called on Friday around 8.00am, I waited less than 2 minutes to talk to the pension department, and around 5 minutes later they put me through HMRC for the payment details. At 8.15am I was finished. On currency, my accountant told me that there is an option to get paid directly in euro once we are entitled to the pension. I'd wait to see the fees on the currency service to assess if it's advantageous. It's probably a good option for older pensioners who don't want ...
- Fri Sep 20, 2024 2:13 pm
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: Retirement plan / FIRE - [UK - France]
- Replies: 23
- Views: 3771
Re: Retirement plan / FIRE - [UK - France]
Thank you Valuethinker and jg12345.
I will call the pension departments to optimise what I can.
I will call the pension departments to optimise what I can.
- Fri Sep 20, 2024 7:12 am
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: Retirement plan / FIRE - [UK - France]
- Replies: 23
- Views: 3771
Re: Retirement plan / FIRE - [UK - France]
@ jg12345 and Valuethinker, many thanks for your insights. A few points on your comments to both of you: 1) Cash at 5% of my portfolio makes roughly one year of expected expenses, hence I keep it in my portfolio. 2) Gold is volatile, I agree. I take it as insurance rather than a performance enhancing asset. Within the whole 75/15/5/5 asset allocation, I would own a 300k permanent portfolio (25/25/25/25). 3) I expect limited inheritance relative to my portfolio. 4) Noted for the ISA to be maintained in the UK once I leave. I plan to keep it for tax reasons, see below, as well as to reduce country risk (political, tax). 5) About UK pensions, you both raised interesting factors. I plan to contact French retirement service and the UK National ...
- Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:40 pm
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: Retirement plan / FIRE - [UK - France]
- Replies: 23
- Views: 3771
Re: Retirement plan / FIRE - [UK - France]
Thank you BogleRocksDB
The ERN sheet is more sophisticated than other simulators indeed. It gives broadly the same results as other calculators, though slightly less optimistic (more conservative).
The ERN sheet is more sophisticated than other simulators indeed. It gives broadly the same results as other calculators, though slightly less optimistic (more conservative).
- Thu Sep 19, 2024 10:46 am
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: Retirement plan / FIRE - [UK - France]
- Replies: 23
- Views: 3771
Re: Retirement plan / FIRE - [UK - France]
Thank you Valuethinker.
I looked at the QROPS system and it seems that brokers that do it charge heavy fees, are based in Cyprus and there is fiscal uncertainty still.
With regard to the UK state pension, I will have contributed more than 10 years but way less than 35 years when I leave. I understand that one can buy incomplete years but not full years. I will contact the french retirement body to understand the agreements. Ideally, I would want to avoid the currency exposure and get the UK income equivalent directly in euro.
Last, do you have a view on the withdrawal rates and potential survival of the portfolio? I understand there is randomness here but I want to reduce the risks.
Thank you
I looked at the QROPS system and it seems that brokers that do it charge heavy fees, are based in Cyprus and there is fiscal uncertainty still.
With regard to the UK state pension, I will have contributed more than 10 years but way less than 35 years when I leave. I understand that one can buy incomplete years but not full years. I will contact the french retirement body to understand the agreements. Ideally, I would want to avoid the currency exposure and get the UK income equivalent directly in euro.
Last, do you have a view on the withdrawal rates and potential survival of the portfolio? I understand there is randomness here but I want to reduce the risks.
Thank you
- Thu Sep 19, 2024 3:04 am
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: Retirement plan / FIRE - [UK - France]
- Replies: 23
- Views: 3771
Re: Retirement plan / FIRE - [UK - France]
@ jg12345 thank you for your answers. 1) meaning of 10% decile floor? the minimum estimated? => Average ending portfolio of the 10% worst-case scenario run in the simulations, at the end of the time horizon (20 years for the "higher expenses" stage). 2) to be honest with you, for single no kids those expenses seem high in a low cost living area in France, but I don't know your lifestyle => This is due to high travel expenses and taxes, that make 58% of total expenses. If I cut travelling, taxes come down as well. 3) can't help 3) can't help 4) also can't help. I am sure there are ways, but not for free I would probably just leave them be. I have UK pension and plan to retire in Eurozone too. => Good. If I can transfer pension back to France ...
- Wed Sep 18, 2024 1:46 pm
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: Sell rental property and move to index funds?
- Replies: 13
- Views: 4919
Re: Sell rental property and move to index funds?
Do you own the residence you live in? I would start by that as a priority if you plan to stay over 5 years in.
If you want profitable real estate exposure, you could also consider ETFs in real estate funds.
If you want profitable real estate exposure, you could also consider ETFs in real estate funds.
- Wed Sep 18, 2024 1:09 pm
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: All in? [100% into an all world etf?]
- Replies: 29
- Views: 6299
Re: All in? [100% into an all world etf?]
I would add some bonds, just in case. Like 10% minimum.
- Wed Sep 18, 2024 1:04 pm
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: Help a UK Newbie With His Vanguard Retirement Portfolio
- Replies: 6
- Views: 2008
Re: Help a UK Newbie With His Vanguard Retirement Portfolio
Questions:
1) What is your time horizon for portfolio usage? The longer, the more.equity you can bear.
2) Why 20% in UK equity? This is above the weight of the UK in the world index.
3) I would simplify the non-US part through a world MSCI index, keeping in mind that it already includes 50% of the US.
1) What is your time horizon for portfolio usage? The longer, the more.equity you can bear.
2) Why 20% in UK equity? This is above the weight of the UK in the world index.
3) I would simplify the non-US part through a world MSCI index, keeping in mind that it already includes 50% of the US.
- Wed Sep 18, 2024 12:39 pm
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: Retirement plan / FIRE - [UK - France]
- Replies: 23
- Views: 3771
Retirement plan / FIRE - [UK - France]
Targets : -Retirement in 2025. -Keep portfolio floor at 750k euros. About me: -Age: mid-fourties. -Single, no kids. No plan for kids unless it happens before I am 50-ish. -I work at a job that does not fulfil me anymore, and I want to live in a smaller city, back in my home country. -New occupations: gym, reading, travelling, charity events and learning new skills. Location : currently in the UK, to relocate in France in a low-cost city (not Paris). Currency : everything below is in euro , for simplification. Current Assets, rounded figures: -UK private pension: 500k (converted from sterling into euro) with access at 57. -Other financial assets: 1m, including 6 months of savings. -Rental property: 110k. -Residential property in France ...