Search found 491 matches

by Portfolio7
Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: No emergency fund?
Replies: 32
Views: 1762

Re: No emergency fund?

We had and emergency fund and then spent it all. Not on anything frivolous, things like some unusual medical costs, home roof and water damage repair and such, but also to allow us to keep contributing to 401ks and get matches while cash flow was poor. So then we were confronted with having all our ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you look back and wish you were more aggressive?
Replies: 64
Views: 4274

Re: Do you look back and wish you were more aggressive?

'Wish' might be the wrong word. Recognize my mistakes might work better. Especially in the period 2009-2016 or so. I was trying to be more responsible with risk, and overestimated my risk aversion. At 60/40 my AA was very conservative (I was 90/10 or so through most of my accumulation, and am 75/25 ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Feb 18, 2019 4:33 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: How many bogleheads do you know in real life?
Replies: 130
Views: 7899

Re: How many bogleheads do you know in real life?

I don't know any for certain, but a few probables. I know many who are not. However, then I have to speak of glass houses: We don't have a legit emergency fund (it bothers me a lot, but we took some risks and truth is truth.) We've tried to balance savings and consumption, i.e. we weren't truly dedi...
by Portfolio7
Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity reports-The number of 401(k) and IRA millionaires declined. The number of people with $1 million or more in the
Replies: 47
Views: 5097

Re: Fidelity reports-The number of 401(k) and IRA millionaires declined. The number of people with $1 million or more in

Thank you very much for posting this analysis. I am very surprised that there are so few millionaires in this analysis. Almost everyone I know is a millionaire. Roughly 1 out of 7 households in the US have a net worth over $1M excluding the house, or so I've read. This seems a bit high, but in any ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Feb 13, 2019 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does your stable-value fund stack up with G Fund?
Replies: 36
Views: 2151

Re: How does your stable-value fund stack up with G Fund?

My Megacorp Stable value fund returned about .26% in January, so annualized that should be about 3.1%. I don't get any data on promised returns that I can find in the basic data or the fund flyer. It's a unitized fund, which I think is par for the course. It holds wrapped bonds / bonds / cash / deri...
by Portfolio7
Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?
Replies: 47
Views: 2755

Re: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?

We expect that businesses borrowing at one rate (i.e. bond interest rate) will only do so if they expect to outperform that rate through their own ventures (i.e. stock returns) over the long-run. +1 My thoughts exactly. I believe the real world answer is evident the micro level. Stock returns fund ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Feb 12, 2019 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 148
Views: 9442

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

It's unfortunate that discussion about the virtues of min vol strategies it's mainly a reflection of recency bias. A bunch of these funds have the best performance right now on a 1 year basis. Nobody knows the future, but the spread between these and their market cap siblings is getting stretched o...
by Portfolio7
Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 148
Views: 9442

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

It's unfortunate that discussion about the virtues of min vol strategies it's mainly a reflection of recency bias. A bunch of these funds have the best performance right now on a 1 year basis. Nobody knows the future, but the spread between these and their market cap siblings is getting stretched o...
by Portfolio7
Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don’t Compare Your Investment Returns With Others (Especially On The Internet)"
Replies: 34
Views: 3426

Re: "Don’t Compare Your Investment Returns With Others (Especially On The Internet)"

"Most people" on the internet have a perfect ten model wife, mid six figure income, several 10 baggers a year on the NYSE, children who ace the SAT and get scholarships from 2-4 IVY league schools, and run marathons quarterly. The rest of us will simply have to make due with what we have. One good ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VNQI (Global ex-US Real Estate): Is this a bargain or not?
Replies: 7
Views: 1322

Re: VNQI (Global ex-US Real Estate): Is this a bargain or not?

apex84 wrote:
Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:32 pm
I don't know if it's a bargain, but have a small allocation to real estate in which I split US/international 60/40 (same as my equities).
Likewise with respect to the 8% of AA I carry in REITs: roughly 60% VNQ / 40% VNQI
by Portfolio7
Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to add safety?
Replies: 10
Views: 1000

Re: When to add safety?

Doing some research...It shows that adding some Govt. Treasuries will 99% of the max return if I was 100% S&P500, with only 60% or so of the risk of being all large cap stocks. Does anyone disagree with this? I am young, and somewhat weary of adding treasuries at this point of the game, but charts ...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 570
Views: 64028

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

We're still climbing the 'wall of worry' today. Anything good out of the China talks could move the markets a lot, but that seems unlikely from what I've read. I had such a strong desire to sell most of my stable value fund and move it to equities. Didn't do that of course, but I'm hitting that poin...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jan 29, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?
Replies: 104
Views: 5965

Re: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?

I learned that retirement may be a few years later than I'd hoped. Not because of 2018 markets per se, just that so many threads were not quite coming together as anticipated. I wanted 55, but realistically 60 was best can do. At this point, the charts say 61, which makes me very average it seems. I...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 25, 2019 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trend Following failure
Replies: 20
Views: 2560

Re: Trend Following failure

Can Mr. Whilthrill or any other trend follower illuminate us with the expected levels for exodus in SPY, VTI ? The usual suspects are: > 10 Monthly average > Monthly 11-10 down, or 12 - 10 down > 200dma (we are below this) Willthrill has stated in the past that he looks at economic indicators in ad...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 25, 2019 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX & low volatility performance
Replies: 18
Views: 2474

Re: VMVFX & low volatility performance

This is my low volatility/pre-retirement/sleep-well portfolio: VDIGX VMVFX VWELX/VWENX VWINX/VWIAX Interesting... per Morningstar (if I understand how to interpret the data) those picks all appear to have a long term record (or from inception in the case of VMVFX) of capturing a greater percentage ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 25, 2019 1:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 310
Views: 49254

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

HomerJ wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 10:14 am
I also submit that we are ALWAYS in a "anxious "just don’t know” situation, where the stock market is inherently risky because of unstable investor psychology." Shiller calls it rare... I say that's the standard.
+1
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 25, 2019 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX & low volatility performance
Replies: 18
Views: 2474

Re: VMVFX & low volatility performance

hdas wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 2:33 pm
Interesting day so far for Low Vol underperforming severely across the board. :greedy
Plenty of daily anomolies that we'll never explain. YTD VMNVX is capturing over 80% of the benchmark upside, despite being nowhere near the category leader. Seems pretty close to expectations or maybe better.
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-cap tilt
Replies: 24
Views: 1794

Re: Small-cap tilt

We have small and midcap funds; also funds with some large cap components but that seem to tilt pretty heavily to size like VMNVX and VINEX. 70% of our funds read out as below, per Fidelity, but 30% is in proprietary equity funds only offered in my 401k (small-mid cap and some reits) If I worked it ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does minimum volatility give better returns?
Replies: 11
Views: 1216

Re: Does minimum volatility give better returns?

My 2 cents: Theoretically it's possible that low volatility funds will beat their index counterparts over long periods of time, but that's not the goal. There are a couple related threads you may want to search Bogleheads.com for. Dumbmoney is right, the expectations is lesser returns with much redu...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jan 22, 2019 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fake Passive Investors
Replies: 51
Views: 2882

Re: Fake Passive Investors

I understand that such insights are intrinsically fun to conceptualize, but I think you're overstepping on your conclusions. i.e. Should we be comparing to A) The Global Market Portfolio (and do you include bonds in that, or just treasuries, or MM/CD's or....), or something more akin to a B) Markowi...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jan 22, 2019 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The recent market move in context
Replies: 26
Views: 3385

Re: The recent market move in context

I still see many posts filled with negativity and fear. To help fellow travelers navigate the current opportunity set, seems apt to put some numbers on the table: Looking at 3 month (63d) rolling moves, as of Dec 24th with an SP index close of 2351.10 , the concurrent 3 month down move was ~-3 stan...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jan 22, 2019 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fake Passive Investors
Replies: 51
Views: 2882

Re: Fake Passive Investors

Define the global market. Ask ten people, even knowledgeable ones, and you'll get ten different answers. The one we've mostly settle on is the world of easily investible assets, i.e. those for which a market place exists. Primarily Equities and Bonds. But some people invest in commodities, etc. If y...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jan 22, 2019 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The recent market move in context
Replies: 26
Views: 3385

Re: The recent market move in context

I still see many posts filled with negativity and fear. To help fellow travelers navigate the current opportunity set, seems apt to put some numbers on the table: Looking at 3 month (63d) rolling moves, as of Dec 24th with an SP index close of 2351.10 , the concurrent 3 month down move was ~-3 stan...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the evidence against slice and dice?
Replies: 80
Views: 8731

Re: What is the evidence against slice and dice?

I am not sure I ever understood what was meant by slice and dice. I think a tilted portfolio has to be slice and dice but I am not sure what it would mean to slice and dice a portfolio and not have it tilted. Would that mean an asset allocation matching the market at all times but held by owning se...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on The Aurora Report? [Arora Report]
Replies: 62
Views: 21572

Re: Any thoughts on The Aurora Report? [Arora Report]

For someone who 'can't afford to make a mistake' you seem bound and determined to jump into a situation with a large enough amount to mazimize the likelihood of doing so. Do you need the extra return? Do you want to spend a lot of time on the investment process in retirement? I suggest taking time t...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio
Replies: 259
Views: 26126

Re: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio

My overall e/r weighted average is 0.24% . :( You all say? I have a considerable position in a fund with an e/r of 1.19% Oh my, should I sell it? But it has overperformed the category average over the last 15 years by 4.07% and the appropriate index by 3.43%. Alas it's closed to new investors. I wo...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio
Replies: 259
Views: 26126

Re: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio

Without blending in special cases (CDs, cash, employer paid fees), the lowest possible seems to be around 0.05%, so 99.95% of your money is YOUR money! 99.95% is not quite accurate, as we hold on average for many years, and the expenses are deducted every year. Over time, assuming growth, your mone...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 301
Views: 16001

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Interesting approach that is "non-boglehead," of course. I like those who are obviously intelligent and thoughtful that take a different approach, own it, but are not critical of those who take different approaches. Let us know how it turns out. Here's hoping you are one of those who do well with y...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dispersion says we’re close to a value cycle (BoAML)
Replies: 5
Views: 1038

Re: Dispersion says we’re close to a value cycle (BoAML)

Even if this analysis has more behind it than you happened to post (i.e. How accurately has dispersion predicted cycle changes in the past - ok, strong negative correlation, but correlations can change, and in the world of investing typically do, no? Is there any reason to expect mean reversion shou...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BHers, what is your Roth IRA %?
Replies: 137
Views: 7732

Re: BHers, what is your Roth IRA %?

Unfortunately, only about 1.5% of our retirement savings are in Roth IRA/401K. I don't anticipate having the cash flow to convert any material sums from IRA/401K to Roth IRA for another 5 years or more. I would like to convert most or all of it before retirement in roughly ten years because, as I un...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting Results
Replies: 16
Views: 1255

Re: Backtesting Results

You might start by reading about the three fund portfolio in the Wiki. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio You may also read in the wiki how owning the entire market (at market proportions) is considered to be the most efficient form of investing. Bogleheads tend to favor the three ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taming the Alpha beast!
Replies: 19
Views: 1308

Re: Taming the Alpha beast!

I often come back to this quote: “...concentrating your portfolio in a few stocks maximizes your chances of getting rich. Unfortunately, it also maximizes your chance of becoming poor. Owning the whole market—indexing—minimizes your chances of both outcomes by guaranteeing you the market return.” (...
by Portfolio7
Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2317
Views: 403848

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Down (7.6%) for 2018; = benchmark B*. This is for our largest account which comprises 90% of our retirement funds, but 6% is a vested cash pension, so I don't have that or some small IRAs calculated yet. I doubt this will change much. Portfolio is roughly 70/30 (about 50/50 US/Int on the Equity side...
by Portfolio7
Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any reason for optimism?
Replies: 81
Views: 3131

Re: Any reason for optimism?

There is always reason for optimism. I think it's fair to state that over the long term, economic growth has been the default position for the US and the world (with some caveats for time frames or certain nations.) I'm not sure how one can be aware of that and not consider that there is at least ro...
by Portfolio7
Fri Dec 28, 2018 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey [“good growth mutual fund”]
Replies: 54
Views: 5343

Re: Dave Ramsey [“good growth mutual fund”]

I'm no fan of loaded funds but those charts posted above do seem to indicate that, at least for the last 20 years, the funds have done better than a standard S&P 500 fund while pretty much mirroring there volatility. I'm not jumping horses mid-stream but they do seem to have the special sauce. I wo...
by Portfolio7
Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another age-based investing strategy to consider
Replies: 12
Views: 913

Re: Another age-based investing strategy to consider

When I was young, I was single and my expenses were low. I earned a good salary. My savings rate was high to start. After I got married, bought a house, had children, etc. my savings rate was much lower. When I was laid off, my savings rate was negative. So, like many things, it all depends on your...
by Portfolio7
Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Step investing" vs. AA
Replies: 14
Views: 657

Re: "Step investing" vs. AA

Just a few thoughts. I suspect if you run the numbers you are giving up a lot of growth under that scenario. Rather than an 85/15 AA you may have been better served by a 60/40 or 50/50 allocation? Perhaps those results would be somewhere in the middle of your present and proposed scenarios? One key ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bull market is over, run for cover says Alan Greenspan
Replies: 41
Views: 6151

Re: Bull market is over, run for cover says Alan Greenspan

All these pundits clucking about a recession in the next year or so are starting to make me suspect we're years away.
by Portfolio7
Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 148
Views: 9442

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

Where did I say that I am expecting to receive a better risk-adjusted return? I said that I am expecting lower risk and lower return. I expect the ratio of risk to return to stay the same. The reason I don’t just increase my bond allocation is because I’m not a Bonds-are-for-safety bond investor (s...
by Portfolio7
Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What type of bond investor are you?
Replies: 35
Views: 2764

Re: What type of bond investor are you?

Well. I know that as long as my stable value fund yields more than Int treasuries, I'm in SV. I believe that will also be true as long as ST Treasury rates are lower than the SV yield, even if IT rates are higher. Once ST Treasuries pass the SV yield, if ever, then I have to think about shifting som...
by Portfolio7
Sun Dec 16, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was Eliminating Investor Class Shares a Mistake?
Replies: 16
Views: 2711

Re: Was Eliminating Investor Class Shares a Mistake?

One likely advantage of eliminating investor class shares is that they also eliminate some paperwork and cost. They only have to track some fraction of the data that they did before, or at least, run fewer analytics on the data they have, to come to those expense ratios.
by Portfolio7
Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?
Replies: 40
Views: 2614

Re: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?

Imho, there is no relationship between the actual economic impact of 2008 and anything that may follow - and virtually none to the level of emotion with which people respond. As Twain reportedly (?) said, “History doesn't repeat itself (but it often rhymes”). The one "new" thing I believe will conti...
by Portfolio7
Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 148
Views: 9442

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

The most interesting feature of these funds is their relationship with the market cap counter parts....Looking at the SP600, blend vs low vol ETF's (real trading). We get this: This is the normal cumulative returns http://i63.tinypic.com/2a519fr.png And this is the spread spread = data['IJR'].pct_c...
by Portfolio7
Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession Coming
Replies: 56
Views: 7482

Re: Recession Coming

What is this dry powder you speak of? My money is in savings, or it's invested - it doesn't sit around waiting for events I can't time...
by Portfolio7
Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 148
Views: 9442

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

I've held this fund for two years now, about 7% of my holdings. I am not ready to trust it as a core holding. I want to see how it performs during a big draw down. Thus far, the performance appears to be very good (and I'm thinking about standard deviation when I say that.) Returns have of course be...
by Portfolio7
Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 249
Views: 20645

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

I've posted this before, but my perspective shifts, so... I'd been through the dot.com crash already. I wanted to hedge in late 1999, but wasn't sure what I was doing, hesitant to follow my instincts, so I rode it out. Once the crash started, I wasn't tempted to sell at all (I only had very low 6 fi...
by Portfolio7
Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2018)
Replies: 7
Views: 829

Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2018)

Madsinger, thanks. It helps to see everyone else is going through the same tribulations, even if it is pretty modest.
by Portfolio7
Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2317
Views: 403848

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

70/30 and bouncing between (2%) and (3%) down for the year. Dom/Int is roughly 50/50.

I'm fine with our investments. It's everything else that's a goat rodeo, and that can pretty much be boiled down to business model issues. I don't think I'll mind turning the page on 2018 at all!
by Portfolio7
Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: does the 4% withdrawal guideline include dividends?
Replies: 43
Views: 3096

Re: does the 4% withdrawal guideline include dividends?

IF you are planning for a 30 year retirement horizon, then what Nisiprius said. The percentage changes if your time horizon is greater or lesser than 30 years.