Search found 435 matches

by Portfolio7
Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 363
Views: 40288

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Has anybody else noticed the pattern in the last month that on down days value out performs growth and on up days growth out performs value. Not looking to do anything with that just interesting. Yes. Growth funds have gone from more consistent outperformance vs value to the more recent mixed bag, ...
by Portfolio7
Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats your number to walk away?
Replies: 301
Views: 45530

Re: Whats your number to walk away?

I'd want another $1.5M.... but I'd probably jump at $1M, and work in a lower stress job for the next ten years. However, not sure I can just leave it at that and not factor in DW. We'd need another $800K for her, so that's perhaps $2M for both of us to walk. These numbers are high because we'd be re...
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k down 8% this month
Replies: 58
Views: 6821

Re: 401k down 8% this month

Ok, I decided to look today just because. I have a natural avoidance tendency when I know things are down. Down 5% YTD. My primary feeling is Annoyance. Those darn tariffs spoiled my emerging markets party :annoyed . Is it weird that I only want to get more aggressive? Am 73/27 with an aggressive sk...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 99
Views: 8737

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

Another reader. I'd already read 'The intelligent asset allocator' by Bernstein; loved the content and discussion. I think that was in 2015, and was happy to find my portfolio structure was similar to one he proposed. Then I read Swenson right after, and I really liked the book, both for the advice ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investing versus debt pay-off?"
Replies: 31
Views: 1985

Re: "Investing versus debt pay-off?"

The point regarding arbitrage seems central to me. It's comparison to the risk free rate of return that's key, and the one that most of us ignore. We've had cash flow issues for some time due to a few reasons, encompassing both business & educational opportunities and things like unexpected health c...
by Portfolio7
Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand dividends
Replies: 146
Views: 13182

Re: Help me understand dividends

I'm not used to thinking about this, but isn't the framework of this discussion inhibiting a resolution? Mathematically, dividends make no difference IN THEORY, before taxes. After taxes, yeah, some difference. Segue to Total Return discussion, as per many comments above. You should not care how muc...
by Portfolio7
Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Retirement age uncertainty increases the savings needed for success"
Replies: 48
Views: 4830

Re: "Retirement age uncertainty increases the savings needed for success"

My projections from the time I was in my late 20's suggested about age 50-55 w/o kids, age 55-60 with kids. We had kids. Pension slashed. Age 60. I have a simple algorithm that calculates roughly what we need to retire at a given age for 100% income replacement, and I charted that against our actual...
by Portfolio7
Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: “$1000/month job is worth $300k in retirement funds” // What are some retirement jobs you would actually enjoy doing?
Replies: 103
Views: 9879

Re: “$1000/month job is worth $300k in retirement funds” // What are some retirement jobs you would actually enjoy doing

Regarding tutoring, after college but before my 'real job' started, I took a couple months off. In between river-rafting and frisbee golf with my friends, I was the resident drop-in tutor at the local jc, I'd see just about anyone. I tutored science, math, english lit, spanish, accounting - got sign...
by Portfolio7
Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?
Replies: 84
Views: 4433

Re: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?

Nisiprius post is very odd to me. He speaks of the dividend discount theory and rising rates. Yet rates did not rise suddenly overnight to justify the drop on Wednesday morning in US stock prices. The market doesn't have to look backwards or react to what happens. The market can look forward, i.e. ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it a sign that a bear market is coming, when most people are afraid that stocks will plummet?
Replies: 42
Views: 2874

Re: Is it a sign that a bear market is coming, when most people are afraid that stocks will plummet?

I think these types of articles (may) only tell you which way the market is biased (but I don't consider this alone to be a great source). I see it this way: the market will react to fundamentals over time (short term voting machine, long term weighing machine.) At any one point valuation will be th...
by Portfolio7
Sat Oct 06, 2018 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stress testing for those contemplating retirement in the next couple years
Replies: 28
Views: 2839

Re: Stress testing for those contemplating retirement in the next couple years

I like safety, but I don't see hitting those rarified numbers. I'm hoping to hit 15x Income, about 20X expenses when you revise for not needing to contribute to retirement accounts and reduced taxes and certain debts rolling off the ledger. There are other expenses that will likely go away, and some...
by Portfolio7
Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security and Asset Allocation
Replies: 50
Views: 5005

Re: Social Security and Asset Allocation

Actually it's not a "private universe" at all. It's based on game theory, on poker, on tennis, on blackjack, on the strike zone within baseball, and on Munger's circle of competence. More importantly, it's based on the professional's game versus the amateur's. Professionals and amateurs play two en...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 01, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?
Replies: 71
Views: 6163

Re: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?

Honestly, not so much, but I don't believe I'm laboring under that particular misunderstanding. I have read that there was significant instability, that this instability coincided with significant federal intrusions in the banking space pre-1914 (from the US Bank to all sorts of restrictions regard...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2001
Views: 372579

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

About 2.4% in my basic portfolio. My TAA version is about 3.2% In both cases, I have a high % of EM/Int'l. 70/30
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?
Replies: 71
Views: 6163

Re: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?

The short answer is because politicians, the Fed, and many economists believe that they can successfully reguate the economy through such measures and eliminate (or "smooth out") booms and busts. It just doesn't work well in practice. JT Others have different opinions and conclusions. Of course the...
by Portfolio7
Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?
Replies: 71
Views: 6163

Re: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?

The short answer is because politicians, the Fed, and many economists believe that they can successfully reguate the economy through such measures and eliminate (or "smooth out") booms and busts. It just doesn't work well in practice. JT Others have different opinions and conclusions. Of course the...
by Portfolio7
Tue Sep 25, 2018 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Other Portfolios that aren't 3 fund
Replies: 31
Views: 3430

Re: Other Portfolios that aren't 3 fund

I have equal parts Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap, Int'l Small Cap, Emerging Markets, REITs. I dip a toe into the value/growth wars, but not worth breaking down. The rest is fixed income, a stable value fund with yields good enough to keep me out of Int Trsy & Tips, at least for now. It's a great por...
by Portfolio7
Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DIYers Taking a Toll
Replies: 50
Views: 6580

Re: DIYers Taking a Toll

michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:34 pm
It seems like every time I see a "professional" on the business channels they say it is a stock pickers market.
I've heard that a lot too. Hedge fund returns since 2009 suggest otherwise. Performance relative to the S&P500 dropped off a cliff in comparison to the prior ten years or so.
by Portfolio7
Tue Sep 25, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Liquid Alternatives relative lack of performance
Replies: 0
Views: 229

Liquid Alternatives relative lack of performance

For anyone interested, an analysis of Liquid Alternatives (as a replacement to bonds) finds that a simple equity/bond approach worked best, within the bounds of their data (16 years). The analysis was based on Equities plus a single diversifier, there weren't any multi-alternative comparisons examin...
by Portfolio7
Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Other investment opportunities besides the stock market
Replies: 25
Views: 2001

Re: Other investment opportunities besides the stock market

A different but related situation: DW is a partner in her small firm, 2 principals. She works there and owns just under half the business also. The cost to buy in was substantial, but she now works in and helps run the business, and she discusses key decisions with me. At the time the business was g...
by Portfolio7
Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Four Ways to Boost Investment Returns Without Additional Risk"
Replies: 2
Views: 1450

Re: "Four Ways to Boost Investment Returns Without Additional Risk"

Do funds with low ERs necessarily have lower churn than funds with higher ERs? I don't think that's true. The lowest cost funds out there are indexed and usually have little turnover, but I don't know that we can say that fund A having a lower ER than fund B means that A automatically has lower chu...
by Portfolio7
Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Parallels between investing and fantasy football?
Replies: 14
Views: 850

Re: Parallels between investing and fantasy football?

I used to play fantasy baseball... and there are a lot of parallels. If you think of your team as a portfolio of funds, and your star clean-up batter like the S&P500, with a long history of strong performance... he might start the season so slow, you wonder what the problem is. You consider subbing ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mother, can I trust the stock market?
Replies: 19
Views: 2366

Re: Mother, can I trust the stock market?

Read this and try not to freak out https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-02-17/dole-food-had-too-many-shares Essentially the way everyone owns stock is: Cede & Co., a nominee of the Depository Trust Co., owns all the stock in all the companies. DTC keeps a list of its "participants" -- banks...
by Portfolio7
Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value of Vanguard's Allocation Chart? Putting the present in a larger context? Or ???
Replies: 12
Views: 1416

Re: How close are your 12 month earnings compared to Vanguard's Allocation Chart?

Given the scale of returns you posted and translating against the tracking I did, I roughly match a 90/10 portfolio over the entire time I've invested, about 23 years. It's pretty much an apples to oranges compare no matter how you do it, so I'm not sure of the point? I mean, if I'd been 100% US ins...
by Portfolio7
Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lessons from the financial crisis (Pisani, CNBC)
Replies: 52
Views: 5114

Re: Lessons from the financial crisis (Pisani, CNBC)

In 2008 I was working on Wall Street at one of the largest hedge funds in the world. Minimum investment requirements were in the double digit millions, and so the LP investor base was mostly pension funds, endowments, insurance companies and a handful of very high net worth individuals. Between 200...
by Portfolio7
Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lessons from the financial crisis (Pisani, CNBC)
Replies: 52
Views: 5114

Re: Lessons from the financial crisis (Pisani, CNBC)

I don't understand this from the bullet points at the top of the article: "The financial crisis started as what seemed like a minor issue — the failure of the subprime mortgage industry." How is that "a minor issue"? This is how I understand it, but appreciate any pertinant clarifications or correc...
by Portfolio7
Tue Aug 28, 2018 3:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pensions and retirement savings rate
Replies: 30
Views: 2628

Re: Pensions and retirement savings rate

I would not count on the pension at all. Granted it is a gov't pension, but obligations can be reduced in bankruptcy proceedings. My pension is about 10% of what it would have been under the existing terms when I was hired. Try to save enough without it, and let it be the gravy (or the benefit that ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX & low volatility performance
Replies: 4
Views: 616

VMVFX & low volatility performance

VMVFX is Vanguard's Global Minimum Volatility Fund, and intrigues me. I don't have time for a full workup and compare, but have pulled this together: VMVFX is about 60% US 40% Foreign per the Vanguard composition detail. It's a World small-midcap fund, per the morningstar category, but the style box...
by Portfolio7
Wed Aug 22, 2018 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with 401K Funds - Employee Fiduciary
Replies: 6
Views: 641

Re: Help with 401K Funds - Employee Fiduciary

My understanding is that EF doesn't allow Vanguard Admiral shares to be used, only investor. If the company hasn't already done the paperwork, they might also want to look at Guideline, which beats EF on employer costs if there are 15 or fewer participants, doesn't charge an AUM fee, and does offer...
by Portfolio7
Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with 401K Funds - Employee Fiduciary
Replies: 6
Views: 641

Re: Help with 401K Funds - Employee Fiduciary

1. The thought process behind these funds... did I miss anything important, either at a fund level, or portfolio construction level? (I waffled on SCV for a number of reasons, may include it in the end.) Couple of thoughts, but if this were a real 401k plan set of choices, it would be better than a...
by Portfolio7
Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Determining ESG’s Nature
Replies: 10
Views: 697

Re: Larry Swedroe: Determining ESG’s Nature

ESG makes some people feel like they are doing the right thing. Per a list from Schwab, several standard Vanguard funds fare pretty well in overall ESG measures, despite not being designed around it. Imho there's a fair helping of marketing involved in the ESG designation, but there is legitimacy to...
by Portfolio7
Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with 401K Funds - Employee Fiduciary
Replies: 6
Views: 641

Re: Help with 401K Funds - Employee Fiduciary

Thanks. I know, the first 20 or so funds are the important ones. The ones after that are not really needed, but I know one of the partners really wants some of those options... so I tried to keep them on a good track.
by Portfolio7
Sun Aug 19, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with 401K Funds - Employee Fiduciary
Replies: 6
Views: 641

Help with 401K Funds - Employee Fiduciary

I am hoping for some advice and thoughts. DW is a partner in a small business that has a 401K. They are switching to Employee Fiduciary (based to some degree on analysis on 401k program cost compares that I ran, that they then verified.) Now they have to pick 40 funds to offer from the universe of m...
by Portfolio7
Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106034

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Help me understand something, The purpose of holding international (and bonds) in a 3-fund portfolio is not entirely about maximizing returns, but rather places a premium on stability and insurance against complete collapse. Right? My understanding: Bonds, yes - but I wouldn't describe the internat...
by Portfolio7
Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?
Replies: 94
Views: 4835

Re: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?

OP, your example seems to be about someone having all the money they will ever have to invest at one time and deciding when to invest it all. Does that seem realistic to you? Most folks invest over many, many years. How does your scenario work out if someone invests throughout the time period you'r...
by Portfolio7
Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"
Replies: 240
Views: 21974

Re: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"

+1

I don't get the hoopla over the Fidelity announcement.
by Portfolio7
Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bankruptcy rising for older Americans
Replies: 4
Views: 939

Re: Bankruptcy rising for older Americans

AlohaJoe, thanks for the link. I feel a little foolish now for not being a bit more skeptical of the conclusions drawn. :oops:
by Portfolio7
Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bankruptcy rising for older Americans
Replies: 4
Views: 939

Bankruptcy rising for older Americans

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/05/business/bankruptcy-older-americans.html Bankruptcy rates up 66% for pre-retirees (age 55 to 64). Up 204% for age 65 and over. Usual suspects: Health care, debt, unexpected family burdens, but also student loans for their kids is in the mix. The net is that these f...
by Portfolio7
Fri Aug 03, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Touring Singapore in October
Replies: 9
Views: 706

Re: Touring Singapore in October

I have only been there on business, but I really liked visiting Arab Street. Very atmospheric. If the 6 yo is an adventurous eaters, there are a few restaurants... and a McDonalds knock-off about a block away, as I remember! I had Schawarma there, it was great. There is a 'China' area and an 'India'...
by Portfolio7
Fri Aug 03, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: How did you become a Boglehead?
Replies: 53
Views: 3926

Re: How did you become a Boglehead?

I guess I've always been a Boglehead at heart - or maybe 90% of one - all the reading I did led me to the 10 principles independently. I was determined to start saving asap, then investing with low cost index funds. My one experience with a financial analyst only hurried me along the road. When I st...
by Portfolio7
Fri Aug 03, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HELOC
Replies: 20
Views: 1478

Re: HELOC

If it's a no fee and draw HELOC, why not? If bank close it, so let it. The problem comes if they close it AFTER you have used the contents to buy an asset. As long as the asset is liquid, you're fine, but you can't treat it like cash. Then there are behavioral issues that tend to result from having...
by Portfolio7
Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Levels of Wealth
Replies: 125
Views: 12165

Re: 3 Levels of Wealth

Great thread. People can also be up or down the 10 point scale. We're 5 or 6 if you look at our assets, but they're all illiquid for one reason or another, including the 401K (at least, I treat it that way.) So we are really at 2 and it will be some time before we have a large pile of cash. What I r...
by Portfolio7
Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need
Replies: 195
Views: 22099

Re: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need

As a rule, the duration of your bonds should match your investment horizon. If you are more 10 years from retirement, the bulk of your bonds should be intermediate or long-term bonds, not a cash-like pseudo-insurance product like a GIC. I thought that guidance was meant primarily to prevent investm...
by Portfolio7
Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need
Replies: 195
Views: 22099

Re: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need

As a rule, the duration of your bonds should match your investment horizon. If you are more 10 years from retirement, the bulk of your bonds should be intermediate or long-term bonds, not a cash-like pseudo-insurance product like a GIC. I thought that guidance was meant primarily to prevent investm...
by Portfolio7
Thu Aug 02, 2018 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need
Replies: 195
Views: 22099

Re: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need

As a rule, the duration of your bonds should match your investment horizon. If you are more 10 years from retirement, the bulk of your bonds should be intermediate or long-term bonds, not a cash-like pseudo-insurance product like a GIC. I thought that guidance was meant primarily to prevent investm...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jul 31, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are millennials botching their asset allocations?
Replies: 68
Views: 7755

Re: Are millennial botching their asset allocations?

For the most part I stopped subscribing to the belief that there are distinct generational differences between demographic cohorts. In my experience the ratio of aggressive risk-taking investors, risk-averse investors, and people who don't save or invest at all, are roughly the same across all gene...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jul 30, 2018 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Developed World Small Cap for more diversification?
Replies: 5
Views: 675

Re: Developed World Small Cap for more diversification?

Yes, but... everything in investing seems to require three hands (on the one hand, OTOH, and there is usually at least a third consideration!) I am a tweaker too. One of the things I'm slowly learning in a visceral manner is that entire markets (& economic conditions) change over time, and the time ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Jul 25, 2018 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best source for simple market news?
Replies: 26
Views: 2310

Re: Best source for simple market news?

Bloomberg.com offers pretty even-handed summaries like that but the new paywall is pretty expensive, and I'm not likely to take the plunge to pay for it, but that's the one column I almost never read. However.... The real question is why do you want it? This type of info, even in the most pristine f...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jul 23, 2018 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are socially responsible funds just another marketing ploy?
Replies: 25
Views: 2316

Re: Are socially responsible funds just another marketing ploy?

Of course, but doesn't mean it doesn't work. My wife wouldn't invest otherwise, so all her (minor investments) are in ESG funds. I carefully omit mentioning how minor their social commitment actually is, so she can feel good imagining her money is hard at work educating orphans, saving whales, and ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The joys of investing
Replies: 23
Views: 3030

Re: The joys of investing

Investing fascinates me. It's like fantasy baseball, but better, you don't have to come in first to win... in fact, doing average is great! But really, every asset class is so much like a baseball player, with different abilities (this one does well during deflation, this other one when interest rat...