Search found 374 matches

by Portfolio7
Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technology the reason for low inflation?
Replies: 57
Views: 2774

Re: Is technology the reason for low inflation?

I don't see how the answer can be anything but a resounding yes. All the fiber-optic cable laid down in the late 1990's that enabled the worldwide scope of the internet also allowed a lot of work to move overseas, with instantaneous communication. Technology also means that companies now require far...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 72
Views: 5983

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

This is my point. People need to understand that fundamental difference between what we are doing and what Buffett does. I think this is a good point. It was never my intent when originally posting to suggest that we all should be following Buffett's investment advice. I was trying to understand so...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we need 529?
Replies: 41
Views: 3519

Re: Why do we need 529?

Another reason to go Roth IRA is potentially better control over your investments. In any case, the hard part for us was funding it. Our money went to retirement savings, and monetary gifts to the boys went to the 529. The latter ended up woefully insufficient; in retrospect we would have been wiser...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jun 18, 2018 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 72
Views: 5983

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

"Never Lose Money" Actionable? Tangible? j A large number of posts suggest this comment is largely about managing risk in several forms. A Boglehead perspective would recognize several tools we use to do so: - Using Index Funds where possible - Rebalancing periodically - Avoiding the purchase of in...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jun 18, 2018 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 72
Views: 5983

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

nisiprius wrote:
Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:26 pm
Rule #1: Nobody actually knows what Buffett means by many of the things he says.
Rule #2: never forget rule #1.
;-) Now that there was funny, I don't care who ya are! Thanks for the laugh!
by Portfolio7
Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 72
Views: 5983

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

I'm not so willing to entirely discount anything WB attaches importance to, and he repeats this 'rule' with gusto in the recent biographic documentary. In simpler terms, I think he meant to be "risk averse", (rather than "loss averse"). The latter term is the more common understanding of the words ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jun 18, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 72
Views: 5983

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

I'm not so willing to entirely discount anything WB attaches importance to, and he repeats this 'rule' with gusto in the recent biographic documentary. In simpler terms, I think he meant to be "risk averse", (rather than "loss averse"). The latter term is the more common understanding of the words h...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jun 18, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 72
Views: 5983

What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

I recently ran across a screed from Charlie Bilello (post: https://pensionpartners.com/the-1-rule-in-investing/) attacking Warren Buffett's well known credo "Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1." I realized I think of this differently than I used to. I once thought more...
by Portfolio7
Sun Jun 17, 2018 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very confused with the current market
Replies: 93
Views: 8313

Re: Very confused with the current market

- It has been history higher and higher. - the fundamental law says it will recycle every 10 years - I had been on cash for 10 months Please don't tell me I should not time the market. What's going wrong? For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong. (Mencken) There...
by Portfolio7
Sun Jun 17, 2018 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which boglehead rule do you break--and are ok with
Replies: 152
Views: 11171

Re: Which boglehead rule do you break--and are ok with

1 Develop a workable plan: 75%? Our current plan is maybe 'good enough', but the big unknowns leave me grasping. 2 Invest early and often: 75% Starting at 27 was good enough, but we could have started earlier. 3 Never bear too much or too little risk: 75%. We consider risk first in AA construction, ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 Year Rule - Not allowed to execute new investment strategy until 1 year has passed
Replies: 27
Views: 2436

Re: 1 Year Rule - Not allowed to execute new investment strategy until 1 year has passed

I think something like this is a good idea. I've done something similar, although not as complicated and not as strict, myself. In my case, it took two forms. First, I try to wait a month (just a month!) between deciding to do something and actually doing it. And, second: I have a rule that I make ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity retirement planner accurate ?
Replies: 12
Views: 1794

Re: Fidelity retirement planner accurate ?

I like this planner. One shouldn't trust any planner to be "right", but this one seems pretty in line with my own calculations, as well as those of our fee-only planner. I like the options to analyze for historical market returns, below historical, and well below historical.
by Portfolio7
Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and your portfolio?
Replies: 23
Views: 2306

Re: FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and your portfolio?

I definitely act out of FOMO. I am a tinkerer; I have a real difficulty with 'good enough'. As a result I have rules I follow strictly in order to prevent me from doing stupid things. I think it's never a good idea to act without a considered plan. So, my 2 cents, fwiw. In early 2009 I had no equiti...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time between Peaks
Replies: 6
Views: 563

Re: Time between Peaks

Most people on this forum appear to believe in reducing risk as your savings increase or when within 5 or 10 years of retirement. There is also widespread agreement that you should be trying to save based on your estimated future expenses... so that if you want to spend $100K per year in retirement ...
by Portfolio7
Mon May 28, 2018 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Post Your Morningstar Box Style
Replies: 111
Views: 8458

Re: Post Your Morningstar Box Style

Below is our standard equity mix. I have to calculate with a wtd avg because of proprietary funds in my 401K, multiple accounts. 13 13 14 14 16 11 09 07 04 Right now our portfolio has a bit more growth vs the grid above, particularly in small cap - though the size weightings would be very close. Fix...
by Portfolio7
Fri May 25, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect
Replies: 84
Views: 6480

Re: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect

I will maintain a small tilt to of about 5-8% of my portfolio to small and small value just in case I'm wrong but other than two distinct periods I don't see any difference. HOWEVER, they do seem to run at different times, so as part of an overall equity allocation I believe there can be a re-balan...
by Portfolio7
Fri May 25, 2018 2:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Renting vs Owning Your Home
Replies: 166
Views: 13362

Re: Renting vs Owning Your Home

Circumstances matter. We've experienced every kind of financial result, but I'm not sure we'd change anything. Our first home was purchased as the early 90's housing recession in our area was turning around. In 9 years it tripled in value. Near as I could estimate, we earned about 21% annually on th...
by Portfolio7
Thu May 24, 2018 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%
Replies: 106
Views: 10479

Re: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%

The advice you are given here is conservative precisely because risky investor behavior tends to result in bad outcomes eventually. The philosophies advocated here are not about reaping the greatest reward. They are about maximizing your chances of success, thereby minimizing your chances of losing...
by Portfolio7
Tue May 22, 2018 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: will the SP500 double in 7 years?
Replies: 101
Views: 11864

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

Well, odds don't seem to support the SPY Index doubling, that would require a nominal return that's higher than the historical average I believe - but under 'normal' conditions you might expect the "dividend-adjusted" index to roughly double. I think the possibility of the latter is still fairly rob...
by Portfolio7
Mon May 21, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 264
Views: 49640

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

We are aiming for retirement assets to be about 70% of our NW at retirement. We won't get to 25x expenses in savings, but with SS, a small pension, and some other resources, we should be close in total. What does this mean? What it should mean is that net income needed after SS, pension, and other ...
by Portfolio7
Fri May 18, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 401k limit is $55K - do you max it out? Why/why not?
Replies: 110
Views: 10610

Re: 2018 401k limit is $55K - do you max it out? Why/why not?

I maxed out last year. I end loosing company match for a whole month. the 2017 max is 53000, that's total sum of pre aft and comapany match. I will never repeat my mistake again. I lost couple of thousand company match. I would rather contribute less than max then loosing company match. I used to h...
by Portfolio7
Fri May 18, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 264
Views: 49640

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

It has to be defined in terms of target spending - the 'average' number would be meaningless to everyone except that mythical average person. Agreed. Income vs. expenses is what counts in the long run. I would say 25-30 times expenses is a safe target. It is reasonable to use a ballpark figure like...
by Portfolio7
Fri May 18, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 401k limit is $55K - do you max it out? Why/why not?
Replies: 110
Views: 10610

Re: 2018 401k limit is $55K - do you max it out? Why/why not?

I maxed out last year. I end loosing company match for a whole month. the 2017 max is 53000, that's total sum of pre aft and comapany match. I will never repeat my mistake again. I lost couple of thousand company match. I would rather contribute less than max then loosing company match. I used to h...
by Portfolio7
Thu May 17, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 401k limit is $55K - do you max it out? Why/why not?
Replies: 110
Views: 10610

Re: 2018 401k limit is $55K - do you max it out? Why/why not?

Nope, I suspect we're something of an outlier on this thread. We used to when we started saving. Now we contribute the minumum to match, but it's pretty good - we contribute 6% and our employers 7% for 13% total. It should still be enough to get us at least 80% income replacement by the time we reti...
by Portfolio7
Thu May 03, 2018 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1435278

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

True - but isn't a lot of that from the tax cuts and not from businesses actually doing their jobs better? Luck and not skill? More than half of the total profit growth in the first quarter stemmed from a decline in tax rates A boost indeed! In this case, I don't think it really matters that the ta...
by Portfolio7
Wed May 02, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocating to last year's S&P (joke? riddle? paradox?)
Replies: 47
Views: 3396

Re: Allocating to last year's S&P (joke? riddle? paradox?)

To me it's not even in the same category, a completely different thing. It's like saying that 50% stocks, 50% bonds approximates the original idea here. The return distributions and risk exposures are not similar. The key feature being discussed is time diversification of stock returns. You don't g...
by Portfolio7
Wed May 02, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocating to last year's S&P (joke? riddle? paradox?)
Replies: 47
Views: 3396

Re: Allocating to last year's S&P (joke? riddle? paradox?)

For example, a portfolio with a 9.23% long term return (assumes 1% drag) with a 10-11% SD still sounds pretty darn good. Selling PUT options should get you that kind of return, at least in theory. See e.g. http://www.cboe.com/framed/pdfframed?content=/micro/buywrite/cboe-feb08-2016-kwc-ingarm.pdf F...
by Portfolio7
Wed May 02, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocating to last year's S&P (joke? riddle? paradox?)
Replies: 47
Views: 3396

Re: Allocating to last year's S&P (joke? riddle? paradox?)

Nisiprius, this is brilliant. Maybe not practical, but brilliant. I am out of my depth, but it seems to me (?!) that the cost to create Latex is the cost of options to represent Latex, if that is possible - never used options, but I am skeptical, I admit.) If it's possible, then whatever that drag i...
by Portfolio7
Thu Apr 26, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Warren Buffett S&P 500 Recommendation
Replies: 76
Views: 7562

Re: Another Warren Buffett S&P 500 Recommendation

...where lower valuations point to higher expected results. I still find it interesting when people here seem to accept it as a given that lower valuations mean higher expected returns... As opposed to the idea that the market is pricing the valuations relative to their expected risk/return i.e. a ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 25, 2018 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks for the Long Run by Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 33
Views: 4441

Re: Stocks for the Long Run by Jeremy Siegel

I've read an earlier edition (3rd?) from the library, and I decided to buy a used edition of the 5th. It's a great reference book, and makes several important points about the character of equity investments. In my opinion there wasn't much in the way of revelatory information included, but the boo...
by Portfolio7
Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you buy new or used cars?
Replies: 113
Views: 7864

Re: Do you buy new or used cars?

I bought used when I was single. When I married, we bought two new toyotas. Sienna went 16 years and 265K miles before a massive oil leak while traveling, and I ground the gears to make it to the hotel. We gave it to a radio station and rented a car back. The Camry went 20 years and 305K miles, engi...
by Portfolio7
Sun Apr 22, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How old are you and how much do you save for retirement a year
Replies: 244
Views: 30122

Re: How old are you and how much do you save for retirement a year

I guess about $19-20K, about half of which is matching. We both contribute just enough to match in our 401Ks. Combined with DW, in percentage terms, we used to save 10-15%, with our employers throwing in another 4-5%. So, a total between 15 and 20%. Now we save about 6%, with our employers throwing ...
by Portfolio7
Sun Apr 22, 2018 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension Freeze - What did you do?
Replies: 85
Views: 9756

Re: Pension Freeze - What did you do?

I'm kind of surprised when I hear about pensions going away, I thought that was a done deal for most companies. Ours went away over ten years ago... of course, I'd be retiring in about 4 years if it hadn't, around age 55, but instead it seems likely I'll work another 9 or 10, unless DW's business gr...
by Portfolio7
Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What If Rip Van Winkle Invested In The Stock Market?
Replies: 6
Views: 1306

Re: What If Rip Van Winkle Invested In The Stock Market?

Marketwatch balances one doomsday article per day with one super-Bull article per day - it'll give ya whiplash. I prefer Bloomberg. :wink: There's a more heartening view from Bob Dieli, via Jeff Miller of Dash of Insight. He suggests we're still in the middle of the economic expansion phase of the b...
by Portfolio7
Fri Apr 20, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT article: Everyone should hire a financial planner
Replies: 103
Views: 9560

Re: NYT article: Everyone should hire a financial planner

I think it is worthwhile to see a good financial advisor at certain pivotal times, but also it depends on the complexity of your situation. I think the most critical time to engage one is a) when you are young and setting a course for family, college, retirement and B) 10-15 years before retirement ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What hedge strategies do you employ?
Replies: 29
Views: 2836

Re: What hedge strategies do you employ?

Paying down debt. #1 Priority for the next ten years. Car, Business, Heloc, Mortgage.

Other Hedges:
Cash
Bonds
Low Volatility stocks
REITs
Diversification
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims
Replies: 98
Views: 11959

Re: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims

Recent post at markovprocesses.com suggests that the Yale Portfolio returns could have been achieved with a 60/40 portfolio leveraged at 40%... for less risk than Yale took on. I had trouble copying in the link, but it is also at Abnormalreturns.com, Friday's post (4/13/18).
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why traditional IRA better than Roth IRA
Replies: 87
Views: 7643

Re: Why traditional IRA better than Roth IRA

families normally don't move up in tax brackets when they retire. Except on this forum, of course, with our Prodigious Accumulators of Wealth. :wink: BHs are definitely not the norm. I feel like I'm on the low end of NW for my age on this board, even while being in the top 10% of wealth for the US....
by Portfolio7
Thu Apr 12, 2018 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.
Replies: 82
Views: 5802

Re: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.

Nisiprius, that's a very nice piece of work! I'd done some noodling in that same territory, but with less rigor... and came away thinking that I'd best avoid the field entirely. I'll wait for some clear long term benefits before I consider anything new.
by Portfolio7
Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bull Market Timing
Replies: 60
Views: 4927

Re: Bull Market Timing

I don't think we're near the end. I think the market is moving sideways to work off an overbought condition, using the recent political uncertainty as an excuse to do so. Who knows the exact % decline, in 2011 we were down 19.4%. Are we serious that 0.6% (the gap between 19.4% and 20%) means 2011 wa...
by Portfolio7
Tue Apr 10, 2018 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing - A convincing article
Replies: 67
Views: 6228

Re: Factor Investing - I convincing article

I do wonder if investors here were able to stick with factor bet strategies. The original Larry Portfolio had 30% SC Value and 70% Int Treasuries, if I'm recalling correctly. Holding that for the last few years would have been tough. I'd have needed to meditate on the mantra, "Do not confuse outcom...
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 09, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much money can a CPA save you?
Replies: 52
Views: 5997

Re: How much money can a CPA save you?

DW is a CPA, so we save a lot! :P Seriously, I always did my own taxes until we got married, but I had some experience (I took a class in college and used to volunteer at community tax prep sessions, helping people with simple returns.) I've had a chance to see inside the business a little, as DW ha...
by Portfolio7
Sun Apr 08, 2018 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Make The Case Against Online Trading Academy
Replies: 33
Views: 2583

Re: Help Me Make The Case Against Online Trading Academy

If the people selling this system are now rich, and don't need to make any more money... why are they charging your co-worker $50K for their classes? One other thing. I'm grateful my Dad got out for only $3K back 25 years ago or so, but these trading schemes have been around for decades. Why are non...
by Portfolio7
Sun Apr 08, 2018 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?
Replies: 163
Views: 12552

Re: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?

I thought I'd posted, but don't see anything in the comments, so apologies if repeat: About age 50. About 70/30 [or with a little more detail, 30/30/10/30 (US Eq/Int'l Eq/Real Estate/Stable Value Fund)] I am still uncertain about glidepath. Probably 60/40 by around age 55. Maybe 40/60 when I retire....
by Portfolio7
Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What can we learn from secret millionaires.
Replies: 93
Views: 17059

Re: What can we learn from secret millionaires.

Those of us who have amassed that sort of wealth or are on track to do so should realize how fortunate and lucky we are. Yes, many of us worked hard, but we also usually had a lot of help, and caught some lucky breaks too. Luck had nothing to do with it, fortunate, depends on your perspective. Help...
by Portfolio7
Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What can we learn from secret millionaires.
Replies: 93
Views: 17059

Re: What can we learn from secret millionaires.

I think the most important thing about secret millionaires, is that they exist. (And by secret millionaire I mean people who are FI but don't look it. We've hit our first million, but we're not what I would call FI, and also live in a pretty nice area - so I don't think we really qualify, even thoug...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone changed their AA/IPS/investing strategy recently?
Replies: 25
Views: 1975

Re: Has anyone changed their AA/IPS/investing strategy recently?

Well, yes actually, two changes. Mostly the change is in my 'play money' account; I shifted just a few percent from stocks to foreign bonds... not because stocks were declining, but just because I was thinking the market prospects in int'l bonds seemed pretty good. I've been refining a system for my...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1435278

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Most economic indicators are strong - a few are in decline, most continue to make steady improvement. The thing about the last two big dips, both involved a market where valuations were totally divorced from underlying fundamentals. Dotcom, then the housing market and it's leveraged impact. At leas...
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1435278

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

...Most economic indicators are strong - a few are in decline, most continue to make steady improvement. The thing about the last two big dips, both involved a market where valuations were totally divorced from underlying fundamentals. Dotcom, then the housing market and it's leveraged impact. At l...
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1435278

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Another day, another 500+ point, 2+% change on the Dow. This is getting pretty old.. It's increasingly clear we're in the early days of a bear market. To top it off, we just breached the 200 DMA on the S&P. Since just about everybody from your neighborhood cab driver to your elderly grandma knows a...