Search found 304 matches

by Portfolio7
Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What seems to matter
Replies: 19
Views: 2158

Re: What seems to matter

Just my opinion: 2 - helpful, but not necessary. The actual compounding is overrated IMO (the ADDITIONAL return of the return is minor, even over long times, compared to the actual saving and simple return) - of course starting early makes it easier. The whole 'invest early and enjoy compounding' i...
by Portfolio7
Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)
Replies: 19
Views: 1431

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)

The best advice I can offer, which I attribute of Larry Swedroe (because I read it in his books first) is to find an asset allocation that best matches your need, ability, and willingness to take risk, and to find a low cost, low turnover method to implement it. Simple..but maybe not easy! -Brad. A...
by Portfolio7
Mon Feb 12, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)
Replies: 19
Views: 1431

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)

I love these monthly reports, thanks Madsinger! I am curious about something. Do you know the story behind those newsletters? I have to admit to being curious at their apparent outperformance of some very respectable funds and approaches. That may be due to slightly different Eq/Bond splits, but I'm...
by Portfolio7
Fri Feb 09, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5576
Views: 1262072

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

This from Michael Batnick at the Irrelevant Investor. I resemble this remark. -1% Mock the permabears -2% Meh -3% Yawn -4% Off the highs -5% Pullback -6% Healthy correction -7% Buying opportunity -8% Stay the course -9% This too shall pass -10% Correction territory -11% I’m a long-term investor -12%...
by Portfolio7
Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1752
Views: 311776

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Down .88% for the year as of yesterday close. Our 401ks have proprietary funds that take a while to price, so I'm guessing today's drop was about 1.34%, but it could be more. That would total at least 2.2% down, though maybe 2.5% worst case, as of today. *** Edit, so much for my worst case swag, mak...
by Portfolio7
Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: "84 percent of all stocks owned by Americans belong to the wealthiest 10 percent"
Replies: 14
Views: 1809

Re: NYT: "84 percent of all stocks owned by Americans belong to the wealthiest 10 percent"

If you are nearing retirement, and on this board, you are probably among the wealthiest 10% . 3/4 of a million household net worth for a 2 person household puts you in the 90th percentile according to http://wealthometer.org/US/calculator2.html#ergebnis1 3/4 of a million is not much to retire on if...
by Portfolio7
Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Average amount saved for retirement by age
Replies: 148
Views: 36571

Re: Average amount saved for retirement by age

I have looked at: UAW/PAW/AAW (We're about 85% of PAW), Eh, what? :confused From The Millionaire Next Door. Under-Acquirer of Wealth (UAW), Average A of W... (AAW), Prodigious A of W (PAW)... An Average Acquirer of Wealth has saved: the product of their age, and one tenth of his/her realized pretax...
by Portfolio7
Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Average amount saved for retirement by age
Replies: 148
Views: 36571

Re: Average amount saved for retirement by age

I'm in a position to have seen how a pretty good cross section of well-off people spend their money. I see no correlation between earning power and financial acuity. Everyone has difficulty with money. Bogleheads are the weirdos who actually get this stuff, most of the time, and most of us also admi...
by Portfolio7
Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Average amount saved for retirement by age
Replies: 148
Views: 36571

Re: Average amount saved for retirement by age

I have looked at: UAW/PAW/AAW (We're about 85% of PAW), times expense (will not reach 25x unless the business grows wildly), times income (JP Morgan below), Funded ratios, both as Kitces described, and also I've tried to incorporate Bobcat's suggestions on these threads as well. I've done pure excel...
by Portfolio7
Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5576
Views: 1262072

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I couldn't rebalance my 401k last weekend due to a hitch at my employer's interface, my request got bounced. Bummer.

Well, I guess I'm rebalanced now. :wink:
by Portfolio7
Wed Jan 31, 2018 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: American saving rate
Replies: 28
Views: 4907

Re: American saving rate

I think forecasters would call the US saving rate a 'lagging indicator'. Changes seem to happen in response to economic trends rather than driving them, at least as far as I've observed. One question I have, does it include 401k matching? I would think that difficult to capture yet significant. My e...
by Portfolio7
Sun Jan 28, 2018 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did the bad news start in 2008?
Replies: 135
Views: 12621

Re: When did the bad news start in 2008?

My 2008 story, fwiw. I forecast for a living, and I'm good at it. Most business forecasts are based on something(s) that provide reliable guidance. That usually makes a forecast pretty easy unless the indicator(s) changes without you knowing. The stock market is a different beast entirely, though th...
by Portfolio7
Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you're really rich you're probably not an index-fundi Boglehead
Replies: 61
Views: 10905

Re: If you're really rich you're probably not an index-fundi Boglehead

I don't want to be really rich, I just want to have a secure financial future and do my best to enjoy my life. That's always been my point of view. Keep in mind security is usually pretty expensive. One thing I realized over the years is that I'd need to be what many people call rich in order to re...
by Portfolio7
Sun Jan 28, 2018 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k millionaires
Replies: 158
Views: 23643

Re: 401k millionaires

So that we could understand, for example, that the median 50 year old couple with annual income of say 150K is contributing X-amount to their retirement and has Y-amount saved for retirement. This data is hard to come by, and it's rare that anyone puts it together in a comprehensive format that all...
by Portfolio7
Sun Jan 28, 2018 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High volatility/returns (SC,EM) for young investors ?
Replies: 11
Views: 738

Re: High volatility/returns (SC,EM) for young investors ?

I struggle with this on a few levels. The net is that no matter how successful your other decisions may have been, there is a lot of risk doing anything other than a highly diversified core portfolio - and you don't want that risk to materialize when you finally bet your life savings. So, I continue...
by Portfolio7
Sun Jan 28, 2018 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you're really rich you're probably not an index-fundi Boglehead
Replies: 61
Views: 10905

Re: If you're really rich you're probably not an index-fundi Boglehead

Ironically enough, this describes us pretty well at 7 figures. We have a little less in Residence / Real Estate (we do have ownership interest in a second house that my fil lives in) and a bit more in Retirement/Mutual Funds/FI, even if you consider stocks as generic investments (since we don't have...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 26, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?
Replies: 145
Views: 12643

Re: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?

Only if you're watching your daily returns, it seems to me. There is a lot less consternation over lack of fundamentals (i.e. companies bid up despite lack of revenue, let alone profit.)
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 26, 2018 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity charging extra fee for Vanguard funds in 401k?
Replies: 31
Views: 2281

Re: Fidelity charging extra fee for Vanguard funds in 401k?

I have Vanguard for a plan administrator and most of the funds are total crap. They have great target date funds and VG Russell 1000 and 2000 but everything else is non-VG and expensive. I sent an email to the HR person that handles it suggesting VG Total International, VG Emerging and VG Total Bon...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k millionaires
Replies: 158
Views: 23643

Re: 401k millionaires

I assume they grabbed only individual accounts > $1M? I imagine the number may be significantly higher if you include households and multiple accounts.
by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do people in the forum hold foreign bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 2736

Re: Do people in the forum hold foreign bonds?

Not any more. I'm in the accumulation phase. I have come to ascribe to the idea that Fixed Income (FI) should be safe, especially if equity allocation outweighs FI, as mine does (70%). To me that means low chance of default, but also debt where my interests align somewhat with the issuer. Therefore,...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for tactical allocation?
Replies: 13
Views: 780

Re: Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for tactical allocation?

In January of last year there were several indications of long term opportunity: EM and Int P/E were low relative to their individual historical trends, they were low relative to the US compared to their historical trends, they had been depressed for many years, profits appeared to be increasing, a...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for tactical allocation?
Replies: 13
Views: 780

Re: Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for tactical allocation?

Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for long-term tactical asset reallocation for the equity portion of one's portfolio? For instance, are any of you increasing your emerging market exposure while the Schiller P/E is low, with expectations that in a decade or two, you might reduce your emerging mark...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 144
Views: 8740

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

3020.10 I submitted on the official form long ago, didn't realize we were doing it here too. Sometimes I think I have a good feel for where the market is heading. Not this time. I just liked the idea of a 30 a 20 and a 10.
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Edward Jones?
Replies: 25
Views: 3509

Re: Why Edward Jones?

EJ is big and growing, so I expect they will pop up a lot in this sort of discussion. I don't think they last long in that business model unless they're at least a pretty good salesperson. I know a successful advisor at EJ. I like the guy well enough,he's personable and reasonably bright. However, h...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HumbleDollar by Jonathan Clements
Replies: 3
Views: 656

Re: HumbleDollar by Jonathan Clements

I like a good mix of basic and mind-stretching. My list includes Clements at Humble Dollar, A wealth of common sense, Reformed Broker, Dash of Insight (weekend edition posted Sundays), Calafia Beach Pundit (political, but doesn't let it interfere with analysis), Abnormal Returns, Crossing Wall Stree...
by Portfolio7
Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks for the Long Run by Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 11
Views: 1675

Re: Stocks for the Long Run by Jeremy Siegel

I've read an earlier edition (3rd?) from the library, and I decided to buy a used edition of the 5th. It's a great reference book, and makes several important points about the character of equity investments. In my opinion there wasn't much in the way of revelatory information included, but the book...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1752
Views: 311776

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

It was a good year in total, but yes, I felt that twinge of regret at the small and value factor drags vs total market returns. That sort of thing never bothers me. Some allocation is going to underperform. It comes with the territory. After all, if they all did the same then tilts wouldn't matter....
by Portfolio7
Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1752
Views: 311776

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

I don't track performance, especially of subset of the allocation. There's no value, so why do it? If one is going to do rebalancing, then one is implicitly aware of performance. And if one is going to rebalance between small-cap value and something else like small-cap foreign, then one is going to...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 222
Views: 37749

Re: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!

1) Right now I'm 100% Stable Value, though 2 years ago I was 100% Intermediate Treasuries. The SV fund yield is 1% higher than Int Trsy's now. 2) I pretty much only have tax-advantaged accounts. 3) About 32% bonds for the year. 4) FI allocation is age less 10-20. depending on how I perceive the mark...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 01, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1752
Views: 311776

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

My returns for 2017 were 15.01%. I finished with 47% US Stocks, 19% International Stocks, and 34% Bonds and cash. A blended index in the same proportions with funds that I already own would have returned 16.39%. I was happy until I saw that I trailed the blended index. I estimated the "factor drag"...
by Portfolio7
Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Why did my fund suddenly drop in value?]
Replies: 205
Views: 120721

Re: My Fund is Down?! IT'S DISTRIBUTION TIME!!!

I'd like to see this as a poll: I noticed my fund was down big time, so I (a) Quickly posted to my favorite forums about my huge loss asking "What's up?" (b) Looked at all the other posts about huge one-day drops on my favorite forums and figured it out (c) Looked at my fund's web site and figured ...
by Portfolio7
Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5576
Views: 1262072

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Got an exciting new phone notification. A wild downward pointing arrow to inform me VNQ dropped 2%. I was checking it a lot about 1.5 years ago when I was rebalancing my REIT so I guess Google thinks I care about it. No similar exciting numbers for S&P 500 though. Wonder if that is the biggest swin...
by Portfolio7
Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2nd million is easier!
Replies: 123
Views: 23910

Re: 2nd million is easier!

Glad to hear that the second mill goes so much more easily. :beer I have to say that the first half-million is quite a schlep. :( For sure. Took us 11 years to get to $250K of retirement savings. Student loans & DW staying at home with the kids slowed things down for sure, and the dot.com crash sta...
by Portfolio7
Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today's Vinex decline - dividends?
Replies: 6
Views: 844

Re: Today's Vinex decline - dividends?

So, I think this is a newby question of sorts, since I don't normally watch my fund balances daily, but I really appreciate if anyone can confirm what I think is happening. Lately, I've seen large declines in a couple DFA funds (relative to the market), i.e. DFGEX was one last Friday, and then toda...
by Portfolio7
Mon Dec 18, 2017 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today's Vinex decline - dividends?
Replies: 6
Views: 844

Today's Vinex decline - dividends?

So, I think this is a newby question of sorts, since I don't normally watch my fund balances daily, but I really appreciate if anyone can confirm what I think is happening. Lately, I've seen large declines in a couple DFA funds (relative to the market), i.e. DFGEX was one last Friday, and then today...
by Portfolio7
Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting sectors, regions and countries? Which ones.
Replies: 14
Views: 1008

Re: Tilting sectors, regions and countries? Which ones.

No. I overweight U.S. small value. I overweight international small cap. For simplicity, I actually eliminated international developed large cap, because I didn't see that it added much diversification compared to small cap. I overweight emerging markets. We're 50/50 US/International on equities, w...
by Portfolio7
Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 115
Views: 20260

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

The GB and PP seem to be solid portfolios, but I'd add that in my opinion Gold is not necessary to build a low std deviation portfolio. Take a look at the portfolios below. Which do you like best and why? (I don't know how to paste pics in here so I'm hoping this translates ok when I post it, 1995 ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 115
Views: 20260

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

The GB and PP seem to be solid portfolios, but I'd add that in my opinion Gold is not necessary to build a low std deviation portfolio. Take a look at the portfolios below. Which do you like best and why? (I don't know how to paste pics in here so I'm hoping this translates ok when I post it, 1995 t...
by Portfolio7
Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When asset prices are not driven by earnings growth. Correction? Dip?
Replies: 8
Views: 804

Re: When asset prices are not driven by earnings growth. Correction? Dip?

Corporate profit growth has been tepid by historical bull market standards during the current bull market. Most of the market gains have come from PE multiple expansion. There are reasons why PE might rationally expand: secular low interest rates and low inflation, slow but stable economic and corp...
by Portfolio7
Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 29
Views: 2757

Re: Call the Top!

3232.32

I suspect we have 2 and a half more years of decent returns before the business cycle turns, but I'm far from dogmatic about it.
by Portfolio7
Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?
Replies: 134
Views: 10303

Re: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?

At no other time have I had any worry about a significant crash. All that said... I don't feel like there is currently anything much to worry about, but who knows? I don't pretend to be any kind of guru, and I don't have faith I'll predict the next one. I mean, despite a 2 for 2 track record, there...
by Portfolio7
Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone switch brokerage account from Ameriprise or Wells Fargo to Vanguard?
Replies: 10
Views: 1070

Re: Anyone switch brokerage account from Ameriprise or Wells Fargo to Vanguard?

Ameriprise to Fidelity about 2 years ago, if that helps any. I filled out the forms Fidelity asked for, and submitted. Went without a hitch. I would hope it's not any harder to go to Vanguard.
by Portfolio7
Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amount You Need To Save Annually Over Lifespan
Replies: 80
Views: 9336

Re: Amount You Need To Save Annually Over Lifespan

I saved 20% on my first job ($5K out of my $25K salary - though I had to spend it when I was unemployed for 8 months). Once I had a decent job again and access to the 401k I was dropping in 15% immediately and I kick myself for not saving in IRAs aggressively also. What $ amount you end up with is a...
by Portfolio7
Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?
Replies: 134
Views: 10303

Re: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?

None. 2000 or earlier, I was too young to understand the market. I was right out of school in 2007 and lucky enough to have a job in 2008 when the market crashed, even luckier I didn't have any money in the market so most of my investing started at the low point. My issue now is my whole investing ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?
Replies: 134
Views: 10303

Re: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?

At no other time have I had any worry about a significant crash. All that said... I don't feel like there is currently anything much to worry about, but who knows? I don't pretend to be any kind of guru, and I don't have faith I'll predict the next one. I mean, despite a 2 for 2 track record, there...
by Portfolio7
Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How your FA, insurance agent, your community reacts when you show your financial knowledge?
Replies: 39
Views: 4850

Re: How your FA, insurance agent, your community reacts when you show your financial knowledge?

Sandtrap wrote:
Mon Nov 27, 2017 2:05 am
Thus there is nobody to share my recent understanding of "funded ratio". :(
I share your pain. I've been working on my funded ratio, built a chart that's really now downlevel, need to spend time to update it. It's fun. But I don't really have anyone to talk to about it in person.
by Portfolio7
Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?
Replies: 134
Views: 10303

Re: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?

Hmm. This may sound self serving, but it is what it is. In any case, I'm not wise, maybe got a bit lucky and borrowed some decent insights. In Jan of 2000 I was convinced it was a matter of time before the market took a big dive. In particular there were multiple articles discussing the valuation is...
by Portfolio7
Tue Nov 28, 2017 3:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1752
Views: 311776

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

TSP says 19.63% YTD or last 12 mo., which is surprising since its about 15% bonds. Vanguard I have no idea. Does anyone know how to check? I couldn't find this info. That doesn't sound unreasonable. I'm up about 16-17% vs a year ago (about 14% YTD as of this past weekend) and I'm 32% fixed income o...
by Portfolio7
Mon Nov 27, 2017 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you do right?
Replies: 96
Views: 9999

Re: What did you do right?

* Went to a public school and earned a partial scholarship. This was a good investment in myself. * At age 23 I'd saved $5K in my emergency fund. Then I lost my job for 8 months and spent it all while finding another. Then I got a third, better job. * I started saving in my 401K at age 27. Age 25 wo...
by Portfolio7
Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 up 1.85% in first four days of 2017
Replies: 13
Views: 2524

Re: S&P 500 up 1.85% in first four days of 2017

Trying to remember my guess for the S&P at years end=- does anyone remember the name of the post where we guessed? https://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/contest/default.aspx Yesterday I was in first place for a matter of minutes, I believe :( ! But I did say I'd be fine with losing if the market ende...